EP1796058B1 - Procédé et système d'estimation de l'instant d'arrivée d'un moyen de transport public le long des points prédéterminés de son chemin. - Google Patents

Procédé et système d'estimation de l'instant d'arrivée d'un moyen de transport public le long des points prédéterminés de son chemin. Download PDF

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Publication number
EP1796058B1
EP1796058B1 EP05425880A EP05425880A EP1796058B1 EP 1796058 B1 EP1796058 B1 EP 1796058B1 EP 05425880 A EP05425880 A EP 05425880A EP 05425880 A EP05425880 A EP 05425880A EP 1796058 B1 EP1796058 B1 EP 1796058B1
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Prior art keywords
stretch
time
last
vehicle
coverage
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Not-in-force
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EP05425880A
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German (de)
English (en)
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EP1796058A1 (fr
Inventor
Mario c/o C.R.F. Soc. Cons. per Azioni Gambera
Maria Paola c/o C.R.F. Soc. Cons. per Azioni Bianconi
Marco c/o C.R.F. Soc. Cons. per Azioni Mauro
Roberto c/o C.R.F. Soc. Cons. per Azioni Tola
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Centro Ricerche Fiat SCpA
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Centro Ricerche Fiat SCpA
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Priority to AT05425880T priority Critical patent/ATE382926T1/de
Priority to DE602005004172T priority patent/DE602005004172T2/de
Priority to EP05425880A priority patent/EP1796058B1/fr
Publication of EP1796058A1 publication Critical patent/EP1796058A1/fr
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Publication of EP1796058B1 publication Critical patent/EP1796058B1/fr
Not-in-force legal-status Critical Current
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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G08—SIGNALLING
    • G08G—TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
    • G08G1/00—Traffic control systems for road vehicles
    • G08G1/20—Monitoring the location of vehicles belonging to a group, e.g. fleet of vehicles, countable or determined number of vehicles
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G08—SIGNALLING
    • G08G—TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
    • G08G1/00—Traffic control systems for road vehicles
    • G08G1/01—Detecting movement of traffic to be counted or controlled
    • G08G1/0104—Measuring and analyzing of parameters relative to traffic conditions

Definitions

  • the present invention relates to a method and a system for estimating the arrival time of a public transport mean at predetermined points of its path, for example the stops.
  • the arrival time of public transport means such as buses, trams, surface and underground trains, etc.
  • the stops to enable passengers to get off and on frequently differ even considerably from arrival times indicated in the programmed timetables affixed to the stops themselves, generally on account of delays due to the traffic conditions and/or to roadworks in progress along the path of the public transport means themselves.
  • the delay of the public transport means at the stops inevitably causes a prolongation of the waiting times of the users at the stops themselves, with consequent inconvenience for said users. Said inconvenience is considerably accentuated in the case where the users waiting at a stop are not provided with information regarding the expected times of arrival of the subsequent public transport mean.
  • public-transport companies or other specialized service companies offer a pay information service that gives the expected arrival times of the subsequent public transport means via SMS messages.
  • the information provided to the users regarding the expected arrival times of the subsequent public transport means frequently prove rather imprecise or at times even altogether unreliable on account of the variable conditions of the traffic or other unforeseeable events, such as demonstrations, accidents, etc., so that the need is felt to find more precise and reliable methods of estimating the arrival times of the subsequent public transport means at the stops and, more in general, in characteristic points of their path.
  • US 20025/099500 discloses a system for notifying passengers waiting for public transit vehicles of the status of the vehicles, including the arrival times of vehicles at stops.
  • the system includes global position determining devices located in the vehicles for determining the location of the vehicles along their routes.
  • a central processor or computer is coupled to the global position determining devices for receiving the locations of vehicles there from.
  • the processor is programmed to compute and update from the present location of the transit system vehicles and electronically stored information a transit data table which includes status information for all the vehicles in the system, including the location of scheduled stops, connections to other transit vehicles at the stops, and the arrival times of vehicles at their stops.
  • the vehicle status and other information, including news and advertisements are then made available for public access in a manner geared to the locations of the vehicles, the time of day, day of week, date, location, season, holiday, weather etc.
  • Portable access means such as pagers, notebook and palm computers and telephones and stationary access means such as personal computers and telephones, and display modules in communication with the central processor, receive the computed arrival time and other information for selected routes, stops, etc. from the central processor, and communicate the information to the passenger(s).
  • the aim of the present invention is to provide a method and a system for estimating the arrival time of a public transport mean at predetermined points of its path
  • a method and a system for estimating the arrival time of a public transport mean at predetermined points of its path are provided, as defined in Claim 1.
  • FIG. 1 Designated as a whole by 1 in Figure 1 is a line of public transport, along which public transport means 2 travel, only one of which is shown in Figure 1 in the form of a bus, said line forming part of a public-transport network equipped with a system 3 for estimating the arrival time of a public transport mean at predetermined points of its path, such as, for example, stops, designated by the numbers 4 to 8, traffic lights, designated by the numbers 9 to 11, roundabouts, just one of which is shown in Figure 1 and designated by the number 12, etc.
  • stops designated by the numbers 4 to 8
  • traffic lights designated by the numbers 9 to 11, roundabouts, just one of which is shown in Figure 1 and designated by the number 12, etc.
  • the path of the buses 2 between the two terminals can be divided into a plurality of stretches, designated in Figure 1 by the letters A, B, C, D, and E, in which the stretch A is comprised between the stops 4 and 5, the stretch B is comprised between the stops 5 and the traffic light 9, the stretch C is comprised between the traffic light 9 and the stop 6, the stretch D is comprised between the stops 6 and 7, and the stretch E is comprised between the stops 7 and 8.
  • other characteristic points could be added, for example, in a position corresponding to the entrance to and/or exit from the roundabout 12, and more in general in all those points of the path of the bus 2 that can in some way influence the arrival times of the bus 2 in the subsequent characteristic points.
  • the system 3 for estimating the arrival times comprises:
  • each mobile location unit 13 comprises:
  • the satellite location device 16 co-operates in use, in a way in itself known and hence not described in detail, with a satellite location system (GPS - Global Positioning System) formed by a plurality of satellites arranged in orbit around the Earth, distributed on six different orbital planes, and designed to produce radio signals that, once received by the satellite location device 16, enable the latter to determine the absolute position of the bus 2 on the surface of the Earth through a calculation of geometrical triangulation based upon the bus's distance from at least four satellites.
  • GPS Global Positioning System
  • the processing unit 18 is provided with an internal memory (not illustrated), in which a set of data are stored regarding the bus 2 and its operativeness, which can be entered manually by the driver, such as, for example, a code identifying the bus 2, its operating state (in service, out of service, breakdown, re-entry into the depot, etc.).
  • the transceiver unit 17 transmits to the operating centre 15 the position of the bus 2 and the data stored in the memory of the processing unit 18, and receives information transmitted by the operating centre 15 and addressed to the driver, such as, for example, the existence and the amount of a delay with respect to the table of running times programmed for the bus, information on the presence of heavy traffic or traffic jams, etc.
  • the operating centre 15 comprises:
  • the processing unit 20 is provided with an internal memory (not illustrated), in which a data base is stored containing information regarding the public-transport network, such as for example:
  • each fixed display unit 14 comprises:
  • Illustrated in Figure 3 is a rough flowchart of the operations executed by the operating centre 15 for estimating arrival times of the buses 2 in the characteristic points of their paths.
  • the ensuing description will be made with reference to the estimate of the arrival time of a bus 2 at the stops 4-8, taking into account arrival times in all the characteristic points of the path of the bus 2.
  • each bus 2 continuously sends to the operating centre 15 radio signals containing the current data and time, its identifier code, its geographical position detected by the satellite location device 16, and its operating state, so that when the operating centre 15 receives a new radio signal coming from a bus 2 (block 100), it verifies the operating state of the bus 2 in such a way as to establish whether it is necessary to make or not the estimate of arrival times(block 110).
  • the operating centre 15 makes the estimate of the arrival times only for those buses 2 that are in service, whilst it does not take into consideration those buses that, for any reason (breakdown, return into the depot, etc.), are out of service.
  • the operating centre 15 calculates the historical mean times T M,i of coverage of the current stretch (in the example shown in Figure 1, the stretch A) and of the subsequent stretches (in the example shown in Figure 1, the stretches B, C, D and E) of the path of the bus 2 (block 200).
  • the operating centre 15 extracts first of all from its historical file the effective times of coverage of all the stretches of the path of the bus 2 that have been calculated in conditions similar to the current ones, i.e., that have been calculated in the same period of the week, in the same period of the year, on the same day of the week, in the same time range, at the same time, etc., and then verifies whether the amount of data extracted from the historical file is comprised in a pre-set interval, i.e., whether it is sufficient to make a reliable estimate but at the same time not too large to consider days that are too remote and thus nullify the effects of the periodic variations.
  • the operating centre 15 calculates, for each of the stretches of the path of the bus 2, identified in what follows with the subscript i, the historical mean time T M,i of coverage of the stretch of path as arithmetic mean of the times of coverage of the stretches of path extracted from the historical file, as well as the standard deviation D std,i .
  • the operating centre 15 sets the historical mean time T M,i and the standard deviation D std,i equal to a pre-set value.
  • the operating centre 15 extracts from the historical file the times T LAST, i and T LAST-1, i previously calculated, taken by the two preceding buses that have run the service along the same line 1 to cover the same stretches of path (block 210).
  • the operating centre 15 calculates three weights P 1,i, P 2,i and P 3, i on the basis of the times T LAST,i and T LAST-1,i of coverage of said stretch of path taken by the two preceding buses (block 220), in the way described in what follows with reference to the flowchart of Figure 5.
  • the operating centre 15 calculates the time ETA i of passage of the bus 2 in each of the characteristic points of its path subsequent to its current position (block 230), in the way described in what follows with reference to the flowchart of Figure 6.
  • the operating centre 15 makes an evaluation of the reliability of the estimate of the arrival times and, on the basis of this, sees to updating the arrival times displayed on the displays 22 of the display units 14 present at the stops (block 240), in the way described in what follows with reference to the flowchart of Figure 7.
  • the operating centre 15 first of all evaluates the reliability of the estimate of the times of passage, which, as may be appreciated, decreases as the distance of the estimate increases; i.e., arrival timesat the stops closer to the current position of the bus 2 will have a very low uncertainty, whilst the arrival times at the stops more distant from the current position of the bus 2 will have a high uncertainty.
  • the reliability of the estimate of the arrival times is established as the contribution of a number of components:
  • the operating centre 15 determines the type of message to display on the display units 14 present at the stops on the basis of arrival times ETA i and of the uncertainty INC_ETA i calculated, and in particular makes the verifications indicated in the flowchart of Figure 7, displaying, for example, the following messages:
  • the forecast of arrival times of the vehicles in the characteristic points of the lines is in fact extremely useful in so far as it enables the company that manages the public-transport network to identify in due time possible delays of the vehicles with respect to the programmed timetables, to intervene with corrective manoeuvres in the case of events that cause a variation of the table of running times, and to inform the users waiting at the stops constantly on the expected times of passage of the vehicles.
  • the historical mean time of coverage of the stretches of the path can, for example, be calculated in a way different from the one described, for example on the basis of a weighted mean time or of any other function.
  • the calculation of the time of coverage of the stretches of the path could be made also only on the basis of the time of coverage of the last or of the next-to-last bus, or of any other preceding bus that will be sufficiently close in time to the current one so as to provide reliable indications regarding the time of coverage of the stretch. For example, if the trips are sufficiently close in time, the times of coverage of the third-from-last bus and/or of the fourth-from-last bus, etc. could also be used; if instead they are distant in time, just the times of coverage of the last and/or of the next-to-last bus could be used.

Claims (21)

  1. Procédé pour estimer l'heure d'arrivée (ETAi) d'un véhicule (2) à un point donné de son parcours, comprenant :
    ■ la détermination du temps pris par ledit véhicule (2) pour couvrir la distance entre la position actuelle du véhicule et ledit point de passage sur la base d'un temps moyen historique de parcours de ladite distance et d'un temps pris par au moins un véhicule précédent pour couvrir ladite distance ;
    caractérisé en ce que la détermination du temps pris par ledit véhicule (2) pour couvrir la distance entre la position actuelle du véhicule et ledit point de passage comprend :
    ■ la détermination d'un temps de parcours (TCR,i) d'une section dudit parcours, ladite section étant comprise entre deux points de passage dudit véhicule en deux points donnés dudit parcours, sur la base des temps pris par les dernier (TLAST, i) et avant-dernier (TLAST-1, i) véhicules pour couvrir ladite section et un temps moyen historique (TM,i) de parcours de ladite section ;
    ■ la détermination d'un temps (TRM) pris par ledit véhicule pour terminer de couvrir une section actuelle dudit parcours, ladite section actuelle étant comprise entre ladite position actuelle dudit véhicule et un point suivant de passage dudit véhicule ;
    dans lequel ledit temps pris par ledit véhicule pour couvrir la distance séparant ladite position actuelle dudit véhicule et ledit point de passage est calculé sur la base dudit temps de parcours (TCR,i) de ladite section et ledit temps (TRM) pris par ledit véhicule pour terminer de couvrir ladite section actuelle.
  2. Procédé d'estimation selon la revendication 1, dans lequel ledit temps pris par ledit véhicule (2) pour couvrir la distance entre la position actuelle du véhicule et ledit point de passage est déterminé sur la base d'un temps moyen historique pondéré de parcours de ladite distance et un temps pondéré pris par un dernier (TLAST,i) et/ou par un avant-dernier (TLAST-1,i) véhicule pour couvrir ladite distance.
  3. Procédé d'estimation selon les revendications 1 et 2, dans lequel ledit temps pris par ledit véhicule (2) pour couvrir la distance entre la position actuelle du véhicule et ledit point de passage est déterminé sur la base de la somme du temps moyen historique pondéré de parcours de ladite distance et dudit temps pondéré pris par un dernier (TLAST, i) et/ou par un avant-dernier (TLAST-1, i) véhicule pour couvrir ladite distance.
  4. Procédé selon les revendications 1 à 3, dans lequel ledit temps pris par ledit véhicule pour couvrir la distance entre ladite position actuelle dudit véhicule et ledit point de passage est calculé sur la base de la somme dudit temps de parcours (TCR,i) de ladite section et dudit temps (TRM) pris par lesdits moyens de transport publics pour terminer de parcourir ladite section actuelle.
  5. Procédé selon les revendications 1 à 4, dans lequel la détermination dudit temps de parcours (TCR,i) de ladite section comprend :
    ■ la détermination d'un temps pris par lesdits dernier (TLAST, i) et avant-dernier (TLAST-1, i) véhicules pour couvrir ladite section ; et
    ■ la détermination d'un temps moyen historique (TM, i) de parcours de ladite section.
  6. Procédé selon les revendications 1 à 5, dans lequel la détermination dudit temps de parcours (TCR,i) de ladite section comprend en outre l'étape de pondération dudit temps pris par lesdits dernier (TLAST, i) et avant-dernier (TLAST-1,i) véhicules pour couvrir ladite section et dudit temps moyen historique (TM, i) de parcours de ladite section.
  7. Procédé selon les revendications 1 à 6, dans lequel ledit temps de parcours (TCR,i) de ladite section est calculé sur la base desdits temps pondérés pris par lesdits dernier (TLAST, i) et avant-dernier (TLAST-1,i) véhicules pour couvrir ladite section et ledit temps moyen historique pondéré (TM,i) de parcours de ladite section.
  8. Procédé selon les revendications 1 à 7, dans lequel ledit temps de parcours (TCR,i) de ladite section est calculé sur la base de la somme desdits temps pris par lesdits dernier (TLAST, i) et avant-dernier (TLAST-1, i) véhicules pour couvrir ladite section et dudit temps moyen historique (TM,i) de parcours de ladite section.
  9. Procédé selon la revendication 8, dans lequel ledit temps de parcours (TCR,i) de ladite section est calculé sur la base de la somme desdits temps pondérés pris par lesdits dernier (TLAST, i) et avant-dernier (TLAST-1, i) véhicules pour couvrir ladite section et dudit temps moyen historique pondéré (TM,i) de parcours de ladite section.
  10. Procédé d'estimation selon les revendications 5 à 9, dans lequel la détermination dudit temps moyen historique (TM, i) de parcours de ladite section comprend :
    ■ la détermination d'une pluralité de temps de parcours de ladite section par des véhicules ayant couvert ladite section auparavant;
    ■ la création d'une base de données contenant ladite pluralité de temps de parcours;
    ■ l'extraction de ladite base de données de temps de parcours de ladite section déterminés dans des conditions similaires aux conditions actuelles dans lesquelles ladite section est actuellement parcourue par ledit véhicule ; et
    ■ la détermination dudit temps moyen historique (TM,i) de parcours de ladite section sur la base de lesdits temps de parcours de ladite section déterminés dans des conditions similaires aux conditions actuelles.
  11. Procédé d'estimation selon les revendications 5 à 10, dans lequel la détermination dudit temps moyen historique (TM, i) de parcours de ladite section comprend le calcul de la moyenne arithmétique desdits temps de parcours de ladite section déterminés dans des conditions similaires aux conditions actuelles extraits de ladite base de données.
  12. Procédé selon les revendications 1 à 11, dans lequel ledit temps (TRM) pris par ledit véhicule pour terminer de couvrir ladite section actuelle est déterminé sur la base d'un temps de parcours (TCR) de ladite section actuelle, d'un temps actuel (h), d'une longueur (L) de ladite section actuelle et d'une longueur (LTHRG) d'une partie de ladite section actuelle déjà couverte par ledit véhicule.
  13. Procédé d'estimation selon les revendications 6 à 11, dans lequel lesdits temps pondérés pris par lesdits dernier (TLAST, i) et avant-dernier (TLAST-1, i) véhicules pour couvrir ladite section et ledit temps moyen historique de parcours de ladite section comprend :
    ■ la détermination d'un écart type dudit temps moyen historique de parcours de ladite section ;
    ■ la détermination d'un temps de référence (TH, i) sur la base dudit temps moyen historique de parcours de ladite section et dudit écart type dudit temps moyen historique de parcours ; et
    ■ la détermination desdits poids sur la base dudit temps de référence (TH, i) et desdits temps pris par lesdits dernier (TLAST, i) et avant-dernier (TLAST-1, i) véhicules pour couvrir ladite section.
  14. Procédé d'estimation selon l'une quelconque des revendications précédentes comprenant en outre les étapes suivantes :
    ■ estimation d'une incertitude (INC_ETAi) de ladite heure d'arrivée (ETAi) audit point de passage ; et
    ■ signalisation de ladite heure d'arrivée (ETAi) sur la base de la valeur de ladite estimation.
  15. Procédé d'estimation selon la revendication 14, dans lequel l'estimation de ladite incertitude (INC_ETAi) sur ladite heure d'arrivée (ETAi) comprend :
    ■ la détermination d'un écart type (DATT, i) dudit temps (TCR, i) de parcours de ladite section ; et
    ■ le calcul de ladite incertitude (INC_ETAi) sur la base dudit écart type.
  16. Procédé d'estimation selon la revendication 15, dans lequel l'annonce de ladite heure d'arrivée (ETAi) comprend:
    ■ la vérification de si ladite heure d'arrivée (ETAi) et ladite incertitude (INC_ETAi) sur ladite heure d'arrivée satisfont certaines conditions concernant des valeurs seuils prédéfinies ; et
    ■ l'annonce de ladite heure d'arrivée (ETAi) si ladite heure d'arrivée (ETAi) et/ou ladite incertitude (INC_ETAi) sur ladite heure d'arrivée satisfont aux conditions.
  17. Procédé d'estimation selon l'une quelconque des revendications précédentes, dans lequel ledit véhicule est un moyen de transport public et ledit point de passage est un arrêt dudit moyen de transport public.
  18. Système pour estimer l'heure d'arrivée d'un véhicule (2) à un point donné de son parcours comprenant :
    ■ un module mobile de localisation (13) installé à bord dudit véhicule ;
    ■ un module d'affichage fixe (14) disposé à un endroit correspondant à un point de passage (4-8) dudit véhicule configuré pour fournir aux utilisateurs des renseignements sur les heures de passage dudit véhicule (2) audit point de passage ;
    ■ un module d'affichage mobile configuré pour fournir aux utilisateurs des renseignements sur les heures de passage dudit véhicule (2) audit point de passage ; et
    ■ un centre de contrôle à distance (15) agencé pour communiquer avec ledit module mobile de localisation (13) et avec lesdits modules d'affichage fixe et mobile (14) ; ledit centre de contrôle (15) étant configuré pour mettre en oeuvre le procédé d'estimation de l'heure d'arrivée selon l'une quelconque des revendications précédentes.
  19. Système pour estimer l'heure d'arrivée d'un véhicule (2) selon la revendication 18, dans lequel ledit module mobile de localisation (13) installé à bord dudit véhicule comprend :
    ■ des moyens de localisation par satellite (16) agencés pour déterminer la position dudit véhicule ;
    ■ des moyens de transmission (17) agencés pour recevoir et envoyer des signaux radios à partir et vers ledit centre de contrôle (15) ; et
    ■ un module de traitement des données (18).
  20. Système pour estimer l'heure d'arrivée d'un véhicule (2) selon les revendications 18 et 19, dans lequel ledit centre de contrôle à distance (15) comprend au moins une base de données.
  21. Programme informatique qui peut être chargé dans la mémoire d'un processeur numérique, ledit programme informatique comprenant des parties de code de logiciel qui peuvent exécuter le procédé selon l'une quelconque des revendications 1 à 17 lorsque ledit programme informatique fonctionne sur ledit processeur numérique.
EP05425880A 2005-12-12 2005-12-12 Procédé et système d'estimation de l'instant d'arrivée d'un moyen de transport public le long des points prédéterminés de son chemin. Not-in-force EP1796058B1 (fr)

Priority Applications (3)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
AT05425880T ATE382926T1 (de) 2005-12-12 2005-12-12 Verfahren und system zur schätzung einer ankunftszeit eines öffentlichen verkehrsmittels entlang bestimmter punkte seines weges
DE602005004172T DE602005004172T2 (de) 2005-12-12 2005-12-12 Verfahren und System zur Schätzung einer Ankunftszeit eines öffentlichen Verkehrsmittels entlang bestimmter Punkte seines Weges
EP05425880A EP1796058B1 (fr) 2005-12-12 2005-12-12 Procédé et système d'estimation de l'instant d'arrivée d'un moyen de transport public le long des points prédéterminés de son chemin.

Applications Claiming Priority (1)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
EP05425880A EP1796058B1 (fr) 2005-12-12 2005-12-12 Procédé et système d'estimation de l'instant d'arrivée d'un moyen de transport public le long des points prédéterminés de son chemin.

Publications (2)

Publication Number Publication Date
EP1796058A1 EP1796058A1 (fr) 2007-06-13
EP1796058B1 true EP1796058B1 (fr) 2008-01-02

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EP05425880A Not-in-force EP1796058B1 (fr) 2005-12-12 2005-12-12 Procédé et système d'estimation de l'instant d'arrivée d'un moyen de transport public le long des points prédéterminés de son chemin.

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EP (1) EP1796058B1 (fr)
AT (1) ATE382926T1 (fr)
DE (1) DE602005004172T2 (fr)

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