EP1796058A1 - Verfahren und System zur Schätzung einer Ankunftszeit eines öffentlichen Verkehrsmittels entlang bestimmter Punkte seines Weges - Google Patents

Verfahren und System zur Schätzung einer Ankunftszeit eines öffentlichen Verkehrsmittels entlang bestimmter Punkte seines Weges Download PDF

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Publication number
EP1796058A1
EP1796058A1 EP05425880A EP05425880A EP1796058A1 EP 1796058 A1 EP1796058 A1 EP 1796058A1 EP 05425880 A EP05425880 A EP 05425880A EP 05425880 A EP05425880 A EP 05425880A EP 1796058 A1 EP1796058 A1 EP 1796058A1
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EP
European Patent Office
Prior art keywords
stretch
time
last
vehicle
coverage
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Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
Granted
Application number
EP05425880A
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English (en)
French (fr)
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EP1796058B1 (de
Inventor
Mario c/o C.R.F. Soc. Cons. per Azioni Gambera
Maria P c/o C.R.F. Soc. Cons. per Azioni Bianconi
Marco c/o C.R.F. Soc. Cons. per Azioni Mauro
Roberto c/o C.R.F. Soc. Cons. per Azioni Tola
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Centro Ricerche Fiat SCpA
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Centro Ricerche Fiat SCpA
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Application filed by Centro Ricerche Fiat SCpA filed Critical Centro Ricerche Fiat SCpA
Priority to EP05425880A priority Critical patent/EP1796058B1/de
Priority to AT05425880T priority patent/ATE382926T1/de
Priority to DE602005004172T priority patent/DE602005004172T2/de
Publication of EP1796058A1 publication Critical patent/EP1796058A1/de
Application granted granted Critical
Publication of EP1796058B1 publication Critical patent/EP1796058B1/de
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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G08—SIGNALLING
    • G08G—TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
    • G08G1/00—Traffic control systems for road vehicles
    • G08G1/20—Monitoring the location of vehicles belonging to a group, e.g. fleet of vehicles, countable or determined number of vehicles
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G08—SIGNALLING
    • G08G—TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
    • G08G1/00—Traffic control systems for road vehicles
    • G08G1/01—Detecting movement of traffic to be counted or controlled
    • G08G1/0104—Measuring and analyzing of parameters relative to traffic conditions

Definitions

  • the present invention relates to a method and a system for estimating the arrival time of a public transport mean at predetermined points of its path, for example the stops.
  • the arrival time of public transport means such as buses, trams, surface and underground trains, etc.
  • the stops to enable passengers to get off and on frequently differ even considerably from arrival times indicated in the programmed timetables affixed to the stops themselves, generally on account of delays due to the traffic conditions and/or to roadworks in progress along the path of the public transport means themselves.
  • the delay of the public transport means at the stops inevitably causes a prolongation of the waiting times of the users at the stops themselves, with consequent inconvenience for said users. Said inconvenience is considerably accentuated in the case where the users waiting at a stop are not provided with information regarding the expected times of arrival of the subsequent public transport mean.
  • public-transport companies or other specialized service companies offer a pay information service that gives the expected arrival times of the subsequent public transport means via SMS messages.
  • the information provided to the users regarding the expected arrival times of the subsequent public transport means frequently prove rather imprecise or at times even altogether unreliable on account of the variable conditions of the traffic or other unforeseeable events, such as demonstrations, accidents, etc., so that the need is felt to find more precise and reliable methods of estimating the arrival times of the subsequent public transport means at the stops and, more in general, in characteristic points of their path.
  • the aim of the present invention is to provide a method and a system for estimating the arrival time of a public transport mean at predetermined points of its path
  • a method and a system for estimating the arrival time of a public transport mean at predetermined points of its path are provided, as defined in Claim 1.
  • FIG. 1 Designated as a whole by 1 in Figure 1 is a line of public transport, along which public transport means 2 travel, only one of which is shown in Figure 1 in the form of a bus, said line forming part of a public-transport network equipped with a system 3 for estimating the arrival time of a public transport mean at predetermined points of its path, such as, for example, stops, designated by the numbers 4 to 8, traffic lights, designated by the numbers 9 to 11, roundabouts, just one of which is shown in Figure 1 and designated by the number 12, etc.
  • stops designated by the numbers 4 to 8
  • traffic lights designated by the numbers 9 to 11, roundabouts, just one of which is shown in Figure 1 and designated by the number 12, etc.
  • the path of the buses 2 between the two terminals can be divided into a plurality of stretches, designated in Figure 1 by the letters A, B, C, D, and E, in which the stretch A is comprised between the stops 4 and 5, the stretch B is comprised between the stops 5 and the traffic light 9, the stretch C is comprised between the traffic light 9 and the stop 6, the stretch D is comprised between the stops 6 and 7, and the stretch E is comprised between the stops 7 and 8.
  • other characteristic points could be added, for example, in a position corresponding to the entrance to and/or exit from the roundabout 12, and more in general in all those points of the path of the bus 2 that can in some way influence the arrival times of the bus 2 in the subsequent characteristic points.
  • the system 3 for estimating the arrival times comprises:
  • each mobile location unit 13 comprises:
  • the satellite location device 16 co-operates in use, in a way in itself known and hence not described in detail, with a satellite location system (GPS - Global Positioning System) formed by a plurality of satellites arranged in orbit around the Earth, distributed on six different orbital planes, and designed to produce radio signals that, once received by the satellite location device 16, enable the latter to determine the absolute position of the bus 2 on the surface of the Earth through a calculation of geometrical triangulation based upon the bus's distance from at least four satellites.
  • GPS Global Positioning System
  • the processing unit 18 is provided with an internal memory (not illustrated), in which a set of data are stored regarding the bus 2 and its operativeness, which can be entered manually by the driver, such as, for example, a code identifying the bus 2, its operating state (in service, out of service, breakdown, re-entry into the depot, etc.).
  • the transceiver unit 17 transmits to the operating centre 15 the position of the bus 2 and the data stored in the memory of the processing unit 18, and receives information transmitted by the operating centre 15 and addressed to the driver, such as, for example, the existence and the amount of a delay with respect to the table of running times programmed for the bus, information on the presence of heavy traffic or traffic jams, etc.
  • the operating centre 15 comprises:
  • the processing unit 20 is provided with an internal memory (not illustrated), in which a data base is stored containing information regarding the public-transport network, such as for example:
  • each fixed display unit 14 comprises:
  • Illustrated in Figure 3 is a rough flowchart of the operations executed by the operating centre 15 for estimating arrival times of the buses 2 in the characteristic points of their paths.
  • the ensuing description will be made with reference to the estimate of the arrival time of a bus 2 at the stops 4-8, taking into account arrival times in all the characteristic points of the path of the bus 2.
  • each bus 2 continuously sends to the operating centre 15 radio signals containing the current data and time, its identifier code, its geographical position detected by the satellite location device 16 , and its operating state, so that when the operating centre 15 receives a new radio signal coming from a bus 2 (block 100), it verifies the operating state of the bus 2 in such a way as to establish whether it is necessary to make or not the estimate of arrival times(block 110).
  • the operating centre 15 makes the estimate of the arrival times only for those buses 2 that are in service, whilst it does not take into consideration those buses that, for any reason (breakdown, return into the depot, etc.), are out of service.
  • the operating centre 15 calculates the historical mean times T M,i of coverage of the current stretch (in the example shown in Figure 1, the stretch
  • the operating centre 15 calculates, for each of the stretches of the path of the bus 2, identified in what follows with the subscript i, the historical mean time T M,i of coverage of the stretch of path as arithmetic mean of the times of coverage of the stretches of path extracted from the historical file, as well as the standard deviation D std,i .
  • the operating centre 15 sets the historical mean time T M,i and the standard deviation D std,i equal to a pre-set value.
  • the operating centre 15 extracts from the historical file the times T LAST,i and T LAST-1,i previously calculated, taken by the two preceding buses that have run the service along the same line 1 to cover the same stretches of path (block 210).
  • the operating centre 15 calculates three weights P 1,i , P 2,i and P 3,i on the basis of the times T LAST,i and T LAST-1,i of coverage of said stretch of path taken by the two preceding buses (block 220), in the way described in what follows with reference to the flowchart of Figure 5.
  • the operating centre 15 calculates the time ETA i of passage of the bus 2 in each of the characteristic points of its path subsequent to its current position (block 230), in the way described in what follows with reference to the flowchart of Figure 6.
  • the operating centre 15 makes an evaluation of the reliability of the estimate of the arrival times and, on the basis of this, sees to updating the arrival times displayed on the displays 22 of the display units 14 present at the stops (block 240), in the way described in what follows with reference to the flowchart of Figure 7.
  • the operating centre 15 first of all evaluates the reliability of the estimate of the times of passage, which, as may be appreciated, decreases as the distance of the estimate increases; i.e., arrival timesat the stops closer to the current position of the bus 2 will have a very low uncertainty, whilst the arrival times at the stops more distant from the current position of the bus 2 will have a high uncertainty.
  • the reliability of the estimate of the arrival times is established as the contribution of a number of components:
  • the operating centre 15 determines the type of message to display on the display units 14 present at the stops on the basis of arrival times ETA i and of the uncertainty INC_ETA i calculated, and in particular makes the verifications indicated in the flowchart of Figure 7, displaying, for example, the following messages:
  • the forecast of arrival times of the vehicles in the characteristic points of the lines is in fact extremely useful in so far as it enables the company that manages the public-transport network to identify in due time possible delays of the vehicles with respect to the programmed timetables, to intervene with corrective manoeuvres in the case of events that cause a variation of the table of running times, and to inform the users waiting at the stops constantly on the expected times of passage of the vehicles.
  • the historical mean time of coverage of the stretches of the path can, for example, be calculated in a way different from the one described, for example on the basis of a weighted mean time or of any other function.
  • the calculation of the time of coverage of the stretches of the path could be made also only on the basis of the time of coverage of the last or of the next-to-last bus, or of any other preceding bus that will be sufficiently close in time to the current one so as to provide reliable indications regarding the time of coverage of the stretch. For example, if the trips are sufficiently close in time, the times of coverage of the third-from-last bus and/or of the fourth-from-last bus, etc. could also be used; if instead they are distant in time, just the times of coverage of the last and/or of the next-to-last bus could be used.

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  • Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • Chemical & Material Sciences (AREA)
  • Analytical Chemistry (AREA)
  • Traffic Control Systems (AREA)
  • Navigation (AREA)
  • General Factory Administration (AREA)
  • Warehouses Or Storage Devices (AREA)
  • Position Fixing By Use Of Radio Waves (AREA)
EP05425880A 2005-12-12 2005-12-12 Verfahren und System zur Schätzung einer Ankunftszeit eines öffentlichen Verkehrsmittels entlang bestimmter Punkte seines Weges Not-in-force EP1796058B1 (de)

Priority Applications (3)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
EP05425880A EP1796058B1 (de) 2005-12-12 2005-12-12 Verfahren und System zur Schätzung einer Ankunftszeit eines öffentlichen Verkehrsmittels entlang bestimmter Punkte seines Weges
AT05425880T ATE382926T1 (de) 2005-12-12 2005-12-12 Verfahren und system zur schätzung einer ankunftszeit eines öffentlichen verkehrsmittels entlang bestimmter punkte seines weges
DE602005004172T DE602005004172T2 (de) 2005-12-12 2005-12-12 Verfahren und System zur Schätzung einer Ankunftszeit eines öffentlichen Verkehrsmittels entlang bestimmter Punkte seines Weges

Applications Claiming Priority (1)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
EP05425880A EP1796058B1 (de) 2005-12-12 2005-12-12 Verfahren und System zur Schätzung einer Ankunftszeit eines öffentlichen Verkehrsmittels entlang bestimmter Punkte seines Weges

Publications (2)

Publication Number Publication Date
EP1796058A1 true EP1796058A1 (de) 2007-06-13
EP1796058B1 EP1796058B1 (de) 2008-01-02

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ID=36264005

Family Applications (1)

Application Number Title Priority Date Filing Date
EP05425880A Not-in-force EP1796058B1 (de) 2005-12-12 2005-12-12 Verfahren und System zur Schätzung einer Ankunftszeit eines öffentlichen Verkehrsmittels entlang bestimmter Punkte seines Weges

Country Status (3)

Country Link
EP (1) EP1796058B1 (de)
AT (1) ATE382926T1 (de)
DE (1) DE602005004172T2 (de)

Cited By (4)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
US20130030683A1 (en) * 2010-04-27 2013-01-31 Morad Tomer Y Method For Accurately Timing Stations On A Public Transportation Route
EP2772894A1 (de) * 2013-02-28 2014-09-03 HERE Global B.V. Verfahren und Vorrichtung für automatisierte Wartungsplanungsableitung und -aktualisierung
CN111047107A (zh) * 2019-12-23 2020-04-21 北京百度网讯科技有限公司 公路通行时间预测方法、装置、电子设备和存储介质
EP3679326A4 (de) * 2017-08-09 2022-01-05 Rakuten Group, Inc. Ankunftsvorhersagen auf der basis eines zielspezifischen modells

Families Citing this family (2)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
DE102013225675A1 (de) * 2013-12-11 2015-06-11 Bombardier Transportation Gmbh Verfahren zur Darstellung einer Einsteigeinformation oder Umsteigeinformation für ein Schienenfahrzeug
CN105976637A (zh) * 2016-06-30 2016-09-28 百度在线网络技术（北京）有限公司 公交车确定方法及装置

Citations (4)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
EP0923061A1 (de) * 1997-12-12 1999-06-16 Precimation AG Verfahren und Vorrichtung zum automatischen Anzeigen der voraussichtlich bis zur Ankunft des nächsten Fahrzeuges verbleibenden Zeit an Haltestellen eines Verkehrsmittel
US5933100A (en) * 1995-12-27 1999-08-03 Mitsubishi Electric Information Technology Center America, Inc. Automobile navigation system with dynamic traffic data
US20020099500A1 (en) * 1995-08-14 2002-07-25 Schmier Kenneth J. Public transit vehicle arrival information system
US20030137435A1 (en) * 2001-11-20 2003-07-24 Wassim Haddad Alerting users to impending events

Patent Citations (4)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
US20020099500A1 (en) * 1995-08-14 2002-07-25 Schmier Kenneth J. Public transit vehicle arrival information system
US5933100A (en) * 1995-12-27 1999-08-03 Mitsubishi Electric Information Technology Center America, Inc. Automobile navigation system with dynamic traffic data
EP0923061A1 (de) * 1997-12-12 1999-06-16 Precimation AG Verfahren und Vorrichtung zum automatischen Anzeigen der voraussichtlich bis zur Ankunft des nächsten Fahrzeuges verbleibenden Zeit an Haltestellen eines Verkehrsmittel
US20030137435A1 (en) * 2001-11-20 2003-07-24 Wassim Haddad Alerting users to impending events

Cited By (7)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
US20130030683A1 (en) * 2010-04-27 2013-01-31 Morad Tomer Y Method For Accurately Timing Stations On A Public Transportation Route
EP2772894A1 (de) * 2013-02-28 2014-09-03 HERE Global B.V. Verfahren und Vorrichtung für automatisierte Wartungsplanungsableitung und -aktualisierung
US9659495B2 (en) 2013-02-28 2017-05-23 Here Global B.V. Method and apparatus for automated service schedule derivation and updating
US9959757B2 (en) 2013-02-28 2018-05-01 Here Global B.V. Method and apparatus for automated service schedule derivation and updating
EP3679326A4 (de) * 2017-08-09 2022-01-05 Rakuten Group, Inc. Ankunftsvorhersagen auf der basis eines zielspezifischen modells
CN111047107A (zh) * 2019-12-23 2020-04-21 北京百度网讯科技有限公司 公路通行时间预测方法、装置、电子设备和存储介质
CN111047107B (zh) * 2019-12-23 2022-05-10 北京百度网讯科技有限公司 公路通行时间预测方法、装置、电子设备和存储介质

Also Published As

Publication number Publication date
ATE382926T1 (de) 2008-01-15
DE602005004172T2 (de) 2009-01-08
DE602005004172D1 (de) 2008-02-14
EP1796058B1 (de) 2008-01-02

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