CN1979540A - Regional agriculture continuous developing ability dynamic estimation system - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention belongs to the agricultural production technical field, relating to a dynamic evaluating system for sustainable development ability of regional agriculture, able to scientifically and completely and dynamically describe a measurement method and system for time-space evolution of regional agriculture, comprising: index system setup, index sequence determination, index weight calculation and effect check software development. And it makes dynamic and quantitative evaluation on the sustainable development ability of agriculture in time sequence and makes dynamic and quantitative evaluation on that of regional agriculture in geographical space. And tracking ecological environment evolution track can reveal stability, permanence and human-land relation harmony each period of time and each region, and find regional difference and main restriction factors of agricultural sustainable development. And it proposes resources optimized configuration mode of sustainable and coordinative development and countermeasures to sustainable development of regional agriculture.

Description

Regional agriculture continuous developing ability dynamic estimation system

Technical field

The invention belongs to field of agricultural production technologies.Be a kind of important method of aspect space-time two, the regional agriculture developing ability being carried out the dynamic quantization evaluation, can develop tendency to regional agriculture on this basis and carry out dynamic linear plan and dynamic trend early warning, the theoretical foundation of science is provided for agriculture macro adjustments and controls.Can agricultural sustainable development relevant with the guarantee supporting capacity of agricultural resource, ecologic environment, production level and basic condition.How to judge the coupled relation of (hereinafter to be referred as four key elements) between agricultural sustainable development and resource, environment, production and the basic condition, and four key elements evolution trend in mankind's activity is a key of correctly holding the agricultural sustainable development tendency to the influence of ability of agricultural sustainable development.

Technical background

External research aspect sustainable development

Over nearly 20 years, the foundation of sustained development theory goes to disclose its intension and essence along three main directions with perfect always.The one, the economics direction, it with regionl development, productivity distribution, optimize economic structure, the equilibrium of supply and demand in kind etc. is as substance.The research of this direction is representative with " sustainable economic development " that " world development report " (1990～1996) and the Lai Bulang of the World Bank delivers at Futurist (1996) especially.The 2nd, the sociology direction, it with social development, social distribution, balance of interest etc. as substance.Its masterpiece is United Nations Development Programme's " human evolution report " (1990～1996) and measurement index thereof---" HDI ".The ecological direction of tripodia, it is a substance with the continuous utilization of the ecologic equilibrium, nature conservation, resource environment etc., such research is representative with the former prime minister Brundtland madam of Norway (1992) and Ba Xiner (1990) people's of etc.ing research report with giving a lecture especially.Compare with the research of sustainable development general theory, although sustainable agriculture development is to explore sustainable development from the angle in industry and zone, its research thinking and method are more pressed close to above-mentioned three directions.

Domestic research overview to sustained development theory

China has absorbed the research method of other related discipline to Research on Sustainable Development, and the one, the geography in the natural science, ecology, environmental science etc.The 2nd, the economics in the social science, sociology, psychology and ethics etc.

Research starts from the beginning of the nineties to sustainable development index system.Ox literary composition unit was on the basis of summing up external sustainable Research on Index System in 1993, propose sustainable development degree (DSD) index system, adopt resource bearing power, economic productivity, development stability, environment cushion effect and management regulation power to measure regional sustainable developing ability.Weigh sustainable development with resource abundance, economic intensity, social stability, environment patience and 5 indexs of decision-making rationality, when DSD＜0.59 is non-sustainable development, when 0.59≤DSD＜0.7 is weak sustainable development, when DSD 〉=0.7 is strong sustainable development.

Theoretical Study on Sustainable Development mainly is divided into the following aspects: the intension research of sustainable development, from explore the homogeneity of Environmental Economics, the ecological economics, sociology, man and nature relation, the earth with lower angle; Theoretical Study on Sustainable Development mainly is the research of methodology, comprises from the angle of multidisciplinary intersection and studying, and being embodied in the systematology is starting point, in conjunction with kybernetics, information theory, coherence theory scheduling theory and method research sustainable development.

The deficiency that exists:

To the applicable elements of the understanding of sustainability, data processing and to choosing what indexs problem such as be advisable, also do not form unified pattern, particularly present evaluation study to the capability of sustainable development, only intercept and rest in the evaluation to a certain moment in the evolution, fail to carry out multi-period lasting evaluation.Therefore, be difficult to coordination and interaction to carry out historical review and linear fit to the economic development and the resource environment in past, can not carry out performance prediction and early warning to the evolution trend of future economy development and resource environment again, make Sustainable Development Evaluation seem that some is unable to do what one wishes aspect horizontal contrast and the vertical simulation.

Therefore, the research of present regional agriculture continuous developing still is in developing stage, and subject matter is, theoretical research is more, and real application research seldom; Particularly have only static research, do not carry out the dynamic studies of change in time and space (multi-period and multizone) at agriculture field.

The present invention is directed to above-mentioned deficiency, propose first regional agriculture continuous developing ability to be carried out dynamic evaluation and early warning from time and two aspects, space, quantitatively vertical Historical Evolution track of description region agricultural sustainable development and horizontal area position difference degree disclose regional agriculture continuous developing ability evolving trend and dynamically early warning intuitively.

Summary of the invention

The Quantitative Evaluation System of dynamic ability of agricultural sustainable development.Determining and the determining of the foundation of dynamic quantitative evaluation model, index system, index ordering, the calculating of index weight and the exploitation of validity check software, dynamic linear model of fit of the sustainable measure of multi-period agricultural.

1 uses analytical hierarchy process design dynamic evaluation model

The one-level model:

$A\left(t\right)=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{W}_i\left(t\right)B_i\left(t\right)(t=\mathrm{1,2},...,m)$

Wherein: A (t) is a t comprehensive development of agriculture ability constantly; W _i(t) be i item index t weight vectors (being 1 row, 4 row) constantly here; B _i(t) be t secondary evaluation index matrix value constantly.

Second-level model:

$B\left(t\right)=\stackrel{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}{W}_i\left(t\right)E_i\left(t\right)(t=\mathrm{1,2},...,n)$

Wherein: W _i(t) be i item index t weight vectors (being 1 row, 5 row) constantly here; E _i(t) be t three grades of evaluation index matrix values constantly.

2 make up the index system (seeing accompanying drawing 1) of reflection ability of agricultural sustainable development

The ordering of 3 indexs

The different different evaluation results of ordering decision, different evaluation result determines different regulation and control (economic control) object again.

Resource is occupied

Natural resources is meant that under its virgin state with regard to valuable goods (commodity), promptly natural resources is the natural wealth that becomes goods (commodity).Another kind of definition: natural resources is that the mankind can directly obtain from nature, and is used to material and the energy producing and live.Can't deny, resource occupy first rank as the comprehensive development indexes of capability evaluation, undisputed.

The quality of environment

Human in the socio-economic development process, because the resource transition is used and wasted the minimizing that the face of land of causing covers, be to influence the agricultural resource ecological deterioration and threaten human survival and the inherent mechanism of sound development and external cause (for example: soil erosion aggravates).The quality of environment should be number two as being only second to the Northeast's agricultural development resource needed---this evaluation index.

The height of production level

The agricultural development level is meant agricultural development scale and strength, also claims the comprehensive development ability.The size of development scale depends primarily on technical factor, more depends on the potential of demand of macroeconomic factor and market for farm products.Have certain development scale and development strength, but do not have resource and environmental advantage, the integration capability (or comprehensive strength) of the development of being far from being.Desirable comprehensive development ability (strength) is to occupy under the prerequisite of resource, has good (or preferably) ecologic environment and the enough advanced regional economy synthesis that technology and economic strength constituted.So the height of production level should be number three after resource and environment.

The rural society development degree

The rural society development mainly is meant the basic condition of peasant's developing agricultural as one of regional agriculture comprehensive development ability assessment standard.Agricultural production conditions can only play a role by the sustainable utilization of agricultural resource, the progressively improvement and the improving constantly of agriculture production technology of ecologic environment, and rural society development evaluation index is number four.

4 determine the index weight

Weight (W _Bi) definite method have four kinds: arithmetic mean method, geometrical mean method, maximum characteristic root method and fuzzy weighting method, mainly determine weight here according to the geometrical mean method.

At first give the judgement matrix assignment of setting up (getting the odd number assignment), two-level index is 4 row, 4 row, and three grades of indexs are 5 row, 5 row.The product of every row element after elder generation's calculating two-level index 4 row 4 column matrix assignment.

$M_{\mathrm{Bi}}=\underset{j=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{II}}}{b}_{\mathrm{ij}}(j=\mathrm{1,2},...,n)$

Calculate M _BiGeometrical mean, that is: ${\stackrel{-}{W}}_{\mathrm{Bi}}=\sqrt[n]{M_{\mathrm{Bi}}}(i=\mathrm{1,2},...,n),$ Right Carry out standardization processing, that is: $W_{\mathrm{Bi}}=\frac{{\stackrel{-}{W}}_{\mathrm{Bi}}}{\underset{j=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{\stackrel{-}{W}}_{\mathrm{Bi}}}(i=\mathrm{1,2},...,n)$

Calculate the weight of three grade of 5 row 5 row assignment matrix with quadrat method.Carry out level then and always sort, promptly

$W_{\mathrm{Ci}}=W_{\mathrm{Bi}}\·W_{\mathrm{CP}}^i(p=\mathrm{1,2},...,m)$

Carry out validity check (addressing before the check formula) at last.The every index weight of this project sees Table 1.It is definite that whole index weight adopts geometric average method to calculate, and key step is as follows:

The single preface of level: set up judgment matrix, and obtain the product of every row element in the judgment matrix.

$M_{\mathrm{Bi}}=\underset{j=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{II}}}{b}_{\mathrm{ij}},(i=\mathrm{1,2},...,n)$

Calculate M _BiGeometrical mean, promptly ${\stackrel{-}{W}}_{\mathrm{Bi}}=\sqrt[n]{M_{\mathrm{Bi}}},$ (i＝1，2，…，n)

Right

Carry out standardization processing, promptly

$W_{\mathrm{Bi}}=\frac{{\stackrel{-}{W}}_{\mathrm{Bi}}}{\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{\stackrel{-}{W}}_{\mathrm{Bi}}},(i=\mathrm{1,2},...,n)$

Level always sorts: according to each layer ranking results, calculate each factor of the bottom to the ground floor weight.

$W_{\mathrm{BC}}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{W}_{\mathrm{Bi}}\·W_{\mathrm{CP}}^i,(P=\mathrm{1,2},...,m)$

Concrete result of calculation is seen attached list.

Subordinate list index weight score detail

Consistency check: the consistency check formula is as follows:

$C\·R=\frac{C\·I}{R\·I}$

Wherein: RI is known.Following value is arranged: when n was 1 and 2, RI all got 0 value; When n from 3 to 9 the time, RI gets 0.58 respectively; 0.90; 1.12; 1.24; 1.32; 1.41; 1.45.

CI is disposable index, and computing formula is as follows:

$C\·I=\frac{{\mathrm{\λ}}_{\max }-n}{n-1}$

${\mathrm{\λ}}_{\max }=\frac{1}{n}\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}\frac{{(B\×W_B)}_i}{{\left(W_B\right)}_i}$

In view of present weight disposal route very complicated, applicant is developed agricultural resource environmental evaluation system software (this software will be divided an application), now main contents is described below: data nondimensionalization processing section; Automatically carry out the weight calculation part; Validity check part and model evaluation part.

Storehouse, arrangement and typing are prepared, built to 5 data

The soil water experiment data of statistical yearbook, online types of databases search, investigation on the spot and part, with the data process arrangement that obtains through various channels, range each corresponding index input database under one's name with spreadsheet, and data are carried out nondimensionalization handle.

6 computing evaluations

Above-mentioned three, two-level index data are carried out normalized, estimate computing step by step according to the time period that is divided in year of data aggregation then, draw one-level evaluation index integrated value at last, i.e. the regional agriculture continuous developing ability index.With Excel is computing platform, adopts the U.S. to produce Matlab6.5 version software for calculation and carries out matrix operation and mapping; The resource environment evaluation system software of patent applicant and software programming personnel cooperative development is used for parameter weight and validity check.

7 linear fits and future evolution trend analysis

Attribute is sorted out, the evaluation result year by year of n m districts and cities' two-level index is carried out attribute according to 5 kinds of two-level index to be sorted out, and do linear fit or regretional analysis, can depict the interactive history of evolution track on change in resources in the process of economic development of each department, ecological deterioration, production scale and social development basis, according to these historical variations trajectory predictions evolution trend from now on, find out inherent mechanism and external cause that each interregional resource environment of different times develops.

Description of drawings:

First class index: claiming destination layer or decision-making level again, is principle with regional agriculture resource best configuration, is general objective to improve the regional agriculture integrated production capacity.

Two-level index: claim the middle layer again, refer to that natural resources index, ecologic environment index, agricultural production index and rural society development indicators constitute four subsystems, arranged by destination layer.

Three grades of indexs: claim the bottom again, constitute that wherein every five indices is under the jurisdiction of each two-level index in middle layer respectively by concrete 20 indexs of reflecting regional resource and environment situation and agricultural production and rural society development level.The principal character of basic coverage area agricultural resource of these three grades of indexs and Environment Change, corresponding with resource, environment, economy and society development four big classes respectively by its character ownership, arranged by the middle layer criterion.

Specific implementation method

Utilize the present invention to finish " Harbin City's herding resource and market configuration potentiality and industrial pattern research " project (obtaining Harbin City's scientific-technical progress third prize) according to the method described above with program.

This invention determines the weight of very complicated in the analytical hierarchy process and the validity check problem, be converted into easy fast with software implementation computation model accurately.Adopt space-time dynamic simulation thinking that ability of agricultural sustainable development is carried out system evaluation, improve analytical hierarchy process and only a certain moment has been carried out the static limitation of estimating, the collection dynamic evaluation is an one with dynamic early warning, both can review the Historical Evolution track, can predict future development trend again, be regional agriculture or other field in decision-making layout process, rare macro adjustments and controls model system.

Claims (1)

1, a kind ofly aspect space-time two, the regional agriculture developing ability is carried out the dynamic quantization evaluation system, it is characterized in that utilizing sustainable measure of multi-period agricultural and dynamic quantitative evaluation model, the determining of the foundation of the system that hits the target in an orderly manner, index ordering, the calculating of index weight, the exploitation and the dynamic linear match of validity check software, concrete grammar and step are as follows:

1. use analytical hierarchy process design dynamic evaluation model

The one-level model:

$A\left(t\right)=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{W}_i\left(t\right)B_i\left(t\right)(t=\mathrm{1,2},\·\·\·,m)$

Wherein: A (t) is a t comprehensive development of agriculture ability constantly, W _i(t) be i item index t weight vectors (being 1 row, 4 row) constantly, B here _i(t) be t secondary evaluation index matrix value constantly;

Second-level model:

$B\left(t\right)=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{W}_i\left(t\right)E_i\left(t\right)(t=\mathrm{1,2},\·\·\·,n)$

Wherein: W _i(t) be i item index t weight vectors (being 1 row, 5 row) constantly, E here _i(t) be t three grades of evaluation index matrix values constantly;

2. make up the index system of reflection ability of agricultural sustainable development;

3. index ordering

The two-level index ordering is: agricultural resource, agricultural environment, level of agricultural production and agriculture as the foundation of the economy condition;

4. determine index weight and validity check

The present invention develops agricultural resource environmental evaluation system software, is mainly used in weight (W _Bi) determine and validity check;

5. storehouse, arrangement and typing are prepared, built to data

The data that obtain through various channels range each corresponding index input database under one's name through arrangement with spreadsheet, and data are carried out nondimensionalization handle;

6. computing evaluation

After above-mentioned three, secondary data index carried out normalized, the time period that is divided in year according to data aggregation is estimated computing step by step, draw one-level evaluation index integrated value at last, it is the regional agriculture continuous developing ability index, with Excel is computing platform, adopts the U.S. to produce Matlab6.5 version software for calculation and carries out matrix operation;

7. linear fit and future evolution trend analysis

Attribute is sorted out, the evaluation result year by year of n m districts and cities' two-level index is carried out attribute according to 5 kinds of two-level index to be sorted out, and do linear fit or regretional analysis, can depict the interactive history of evolution track on change in resources in the process of economic development of each department, ecological deterioration, production scale and social development basis.

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