CN118261421A - Investment execution risk assessment method and device for power grid project - Google Patents
Investment execution risk assessment method and device for power grid project Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses an investment execution risk assessment method for a power grid project. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring basic project data of a power grid project; wherein the power grid project comprises a commissioned project, a completed resolution project and a pending calculation project; analyzing the basic project data to obtain key parameters; establishing an engineering cost prediction model, inputting the key parameters into the engineering cost prediction model, and calculating to obtain a cumulative engineering cost prediction value at the end of the period; and comparing and evaluating the forecast value of the accumulated engineering cost at the end of the current period with the current year investment plan to obtain an evaluation result. According to the invention, the project execution risk is estimated and the project investment plan adjustment is assisted by predicting the project cost accumulated at the end of the current period and comparing and evaluating the project cost predicted value accumulated at the end of the current period with the current year investment plan, so that the execution condition of the power grid infrastructure project investment can be monitored in real time.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of risk assessment, in particular to an investment execution risk assessment method and device for a power grid project.
Background
The investment statistics is an important component of the company investment management work, the connection investment plan and the investment execution analysis are important links of the investment management work, and under the current large background of deepening the transformation of the power transmission and distribution price, the accurate statistics of the fixed asset investment completion amount plays an important role in tamping the nuclear price foundation of the power transmission and distribution price. The traditional investment execution risk quantification method fails to respond to the change of the fixed asset investment statistics accounting method in time, is unfavorable for the timely and comprehensive monitoring of project execution conditions of companies, and is unfavorable for the execution analysis of a power grid investment plan and the adjustment of a plan in the year. Therefore, based on the influence of the investment statistics accounting method from the 'image progress method' to the 'financial expenditure method' on the investment completion statistics, the consideration of predicting the current period of the completion of the investment under the financial expenditure method is needed to evaluate the execution risk of the power grid infrastructure investment plan and quantify the risk amount.
Disclosure of Invention
The technical problems to be solved by the embodiment of the invention are as follows: the investment execution risk assessment method for the power grid project is characterized in that an engineering cost prediction model is built, the accumulated engineering cost at the end of the current period is predicted, the predicted value of the accumulated engineering cost at the end of the current period is compared with the current year investment plan for assessment, the investment completion execution condition of the power grid infrastructure project can be monitored in real time, the project execution risk is assessed, and project investment plan adjustment is assisted.
In order to solve the above technical problems, in a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for evaluating risk of investment execution of a power grid project, including:
Acquiring basic project data of a power grid project; wherein the power grid project comprises a commissioned project, a completed resolution project and a pending calculation project;
Analyzing the basic project data to obtain key parameters;
establishing an engineering cost prediction model, inputting the key parameters into the engineering cost prediction model, and calculating to obtain a cumulative engineering cost prediction value at the end of the period;
And comparing and evaluating the forecast value of the accumulated engineering cost at the end of the current period with the current year investment plan to obtain an evaluation result.
Further, the base project data includes commissioned project data, completed resolution project data, established parameter data, and pending calculation project data.
Further, if the key parameters include a reasonable construction period, a project balance rate and a cumulative account-entering proportion, the analyzing the basic project data to obtain the key parameters includes:
Calculating to obtain the actual average construction period of the put-on project based on the actual start-up time and the actual put-on time of the put-on project;
Correcting the actual average construction period according to a preset correction rule to obtain a corrected reasonable construction period;
calculating to obtain a project balance rate based on the project approximate amount and the project resolution amount of the completed resolution project;
Calculating the accumulated accounting proportion of different engineering stages according to the project balance rate and the completed resolution project data; the engineering stage comprises an unoperated stage, an construction stage, a settlement stage and a settlement completion stage.
Further, the establishing an engineering cost prediction model, inputting the key parameters into the engineering cost prediction model, and calculating to obtain the accumulated engineering cost prediction value at the end of the period, including:
predicting the project stage of the unfinished resolution project at the end of the project period to obtain a project stage predicted value;
predicting the total amount of the project settlement according to the project balance rate, and taking the total amount of the project settlement as a project engineering cost price-calculating reference;
and based on the project stage predicted value and the project cost pricing standard, predicting to obtain a final accumulated project cost predicted value of the current period by adopting a preset accumulated accounting proportion adjustment rule.
Further, the preset cumulative account entry proportion adjustment rule includes:
When the accumulated construction progress is less than 30%, the accumulated project cost predicted value at the end of the period=the estimated total amount of money by the time of interception to the accumulated accounting proportion of project production by the time of the end of the period (the end of the period-the actual project starting time)/the estimated total construction period;
When the accumulated construction progress is greater than or equal to 30%, the accumulated project cost predicted value at the end of the period=the estimated total amount of money, the proportion of accumulated accounting for the project production is cut off, the construction period at the end of the period (the end of the period-the actual working time of the project)/the estimated total construction period+the estimated equipment cost (or the estimated total amount of money is 20%).
Further, after the predicting obtains the predicted value of the accumulated engineering cost at the end of the period, the method further includes:
And if the predicted value of the accumulated engineering cost at the end of the current period is smaller than the predicted value of the accumulated engineering cost at the beginning of the current period, taking the predicted value of the accumulated engineering cost at the beginning of the current period as the predicted value of the accumulated engineering cost at the end of the current period.
Further, the comparing and evaluating the forecast value of the accumulated engineering cost at the end of the current period with the current year investment plan to obtain an evaluation result includes:
And calculating to obtain the execution investment risk of the power grid project according to the accumulated project cost predicted value at the end of the current period and the current year investment plan, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
Investment execution risk= (current period project cost predicted value-current year investment plan)/current year investment plan= (current period project cost predicted value accumulated since the end of current period, project cost accumulated since the end of last period-current year investment plan)/current year investment plan.
In order to solve the above technical problem, in a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides an investment execution risk assessment device for a power grid project, including:
The data acquisition module is used for acquiring basic project data of the power grid project; wherein the power grid project comprises a commissioned project, a completed resolution project and a pending calculation project;
the parameter configuration module is used for analyzing the basic project data to obtain key parameters;
The model building module is used for building an engineering cost prediction model, inputting the key parameters into the engineering cost prediction model, and calculating to obtain an accumulated engineering cost prediction value at the end of the period;
and the risk assessment module is used for comparing and assessing the forecast value of the accumulated engineering cost at the end of the current period with the current year investment plan to obtain an assessment result.
In order to solve the above technical problem, in a third aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides an electronic device, including:
A memory for storing a computer program;
A processor for executing the computer program;
Wherein the processor, when executing the computer program, implements the investment execution risk assessment method for the grid project according to any one of the first aspect.
In order to solve the above technical problem, according to a fourth aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a computer readable storage medium storing a computer program, which when executed implements the investment execution risk assessment method for a grid project according to any one of the first aspect.
Compared with the prior art, the investment execution risk assessment method for the power grid project has the beneficial effects that: acquiring basic project data of a power grid project; analyzing the basic project data to obtain key parameters; establishing an engineering cost prediction model, inputting the key parameters into the engineering cost prediction model, and calculating to obtain a cumulative engineering cost prediction value at the end of the period; and comparing and evaluating the forecast value of the accumulated engineering cost at the end of the current period with the current year investment plan to obtain an evaluation result. The method can monitor the execution condition of the investment completion of the project of the power grid infrastructure in real time, evaluate the project execution risk and assist in project investment plan adjustment.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the technical features of the embodiments of the present invention, the drawings that are required to be used in the embodiments of the present invention will be briefly described below, and it is apparent that the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention and that other drawings may be obtained according to these drawings without inventive effort for a person skilled in the art.
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of an embodiment of a method for performing risk assessment on investment in a grid project provided by the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of one embodiment of a method for performing risk assessment for investment in a grid project provided by the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram illustrating an embodiment of an apparatus for risk assessment for investment performance for a grid project according to the present invention;
fig. 4 is a schematic structural diagram of an embodiment of an electronic device provided by the present invention.
Detailed Description
The following description of the embodiments of the present invention will be made clearly and completely with reference to the accompanying drawings, in which it is apparent that the embodiments described are only some embodiments of the present invention, but not all embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be made by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the invention without making any inventive effort, are intended to be within the scope of the invention.
In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for evaluating risk of investment execution of a power grid project, referring to fig. 1, which is a schematic flow chart of an embodiment of a method for evaluating risk of investment execution of a power grid project.
As shown in fig. 1, the method comprises the steps of:
s1: acquiring basic project data of a power grid project; wherein the power grid project comprises a commissioned project, a completed resolution project and a pending calculation project;
s2: analyzing the basic project data to obtain key parameters;
s3: establishing an engineering cost prediction model, inputting the key parameters into the engineering cost prediction model, and calculating to obtain a cumulative engineering cost prediction value at the end of the period;
S4: and comparing and evaluating the forecast value of the accumulated engineering cost at the end of the current period with the current year investment plan to obtain an evaluation result.
In specific implementation, basic project data of a power grid project is firstly obtained, the power grid project comprises a put-in project, a finished resolution project and a pending calculation project, the basic project data is analyzed, the regularity characteristics of engineering project data are judged to obtain key parameters, an engineering cost prediction model is built, the key parameters are input into the engineering cost prediction model, an accumulated engineering cost prediction value at the end of a current period is obtained through calculation, and the accumulated engineering cost prediction value at the end of the current period is compared with a current year investment plan to obtain an evaluation result.
In summary, the invention can monitor the execution condition of the investment completion of the project of the power grid infrastructure in real time by predicting the project cost accumulated at the end of the current period and comparing and evaluating the project cost accumulated at the end of the current period with the investment plan of the current year, evaluate the project execution risk and assist in adjusting the project investment plan.
In an alternative embodiment, the base project data includes commissioned project data, completed resolution project data, established parameter data, and pending project data.
Specifically, the produced project data comprise actual start time and actual production time; the completed resolution project data comprises general calculation data, resolution data and engineering cost (including tax); the set parameter data comprise power grid engineering settlement of voltage-class division and a reasonable construction period upper limit and lower limit of the voltage-class division national network; the project data comprises the planned starting time, the planned production time, the actual starting time, the actual production time, the wholesale approximate calculation, the planned total investment, the annual investment plan, the accumulated construction progress, the equipment cost approximate calculation, the accumulated engineering cost (including tax) from the beginning of the current period and the accumulated engineering cost (including tax) from the end of the last period.
In an optional implementation manner, the key parameters include a reasonable construction period, a project balance rate and a cumulative accounting proportion, and the analyzing the basic project data to obtain the key parameters includes:
Calculating to obtain the actual average construction period of the put-on project based on the actual start-up time and the actual put-on time of the put-on project;
Correcting the actual average construction period according to a preset correction rule to obtain a corrected reasonable construction period;
calculating to obtain a project balance rate based on the project approximate amount and the project resolution amount of the completed resolution project;
Calculating the accumulated accounting proportion of different engineering stages according to the project balance rate and the completed resolution project data; the engineering stage comprises an unoperated stage, an construction stage, a settlement stage and a settlement completion stage.
Specifically, based on the actual start time and the actual production time of the produced project, calculating to obtain an actual average construction period of the produced project, correcting the actual average construction period according to a preset correction rule to obtain a corrected reasonable construction period, wherein the preset correction rule is as follows:
When the actual average construction period is less than the lower limit of the reasonable construction period of the national network, taking the lower limit of the reasonable construction period of the national network as the reasonable construction period;
When the lower limit of the reasonable construction period of the national network is less than or equal to the actual average construction period of the reasonable construction period of the national network and less than or equal to the upper limit of the reasonable construction period of the national network, taking the average value of the lower limit number and the upper limit number of the reasonable construction period of the national network as the reasonable construction period;
When the actual average construction period is greater than the upper limit of the reasonable construction period of the national network, the upper limit of the reasonable construction period of the national network is used as the reasonable construction period.
The reasonable construction period of the corrected grid infrastructure project with the unit division voltage class is shown in the table 1:
Table 1 rational construction period of unit voltage-class-divided power grid infrastructure project
Calculating to obtain a project balance amount based on the project approximate calculation amount and the project settlement amount of the completed settlement project, namely, the project balance amount=the settlement amount-the approximate calculation amount, and calculating to obtain a project balance rate according to the project balance amount and the approximate calculation amount, wherein the formula is as follows: each item balance ratio=item balance amount/total calculated amount, and finally, referring to fig. 2, the item balance ratio average is calculated according to the voltage-grading summary, so as to obtain the voltage-grading grid infrastructure item balance ratio.
Calculating the accumulated account-entering proportion of different engineering stages according to the project balance rate and the completed settlement project data, wherein the engineering stages comprise an unoperated stage, a construction stage for starting, a to-be-settled stage and a settlement completion stage, firstly, judging the current engineering stage of the project based on the overall calculation of the completed settlement project and the project cost (tax-containing) data, and calculating the accumulated account-entering proportion of the power grid foundation project according to the project balance rate, wherein the calculation formula is as follows: project cumulative account proportion = engineering cost (tax)/project total investment (tax-containing overview) x (1-balance); referring to table 2, the accumulated accounting proportion of the grid infrastructure projects in the voltage dividing class engineering stage is shown.
Table 2 cumulative accounting ratio for voltage class grid infrastructure projects
In an optional implementation manner, the building an engineering cost prediction model, inputting the key parameter into the engineering cost prediction model, and calculating to obtain the accumulated engineering cost prediction value at the end of the period, including:
predicting the project stage of the unfinished resolution project at the end of the project period to obtain a project stage predicted value;
predicting the total amount of the project settlement according to the project balance rate, and taking the total amount of the project settlement as a project engineering cost price-calculating reference;
and based on the project stage predicted value and the project cost pricing standard, predicting to obtain a final accumulated project cost predicted value of the current period by adopting a preset accumulated accounting proportion adjustment rule.
Specifically, firstly, acquiring project data of an unresolved power grid infrastructure project, mining submodule parameters according to project actual start time and reasonable construction period rules of the power grid infrastructure project, measuring and calculating estimated planned start time, if no actual start time exists, taking project planned start time, and correcting the project of the existing actual start time according to the actual start time; secondly, referring to the table 3, calculating the predicted settlement time and the predicted calculation time of each project by combining the power grid project settlement and calculation time requirements of the voltage class of the preset parameters;
table 3 power grid project settlement and resolution time requirements for voltage classes
Based on the predicted node time of each project, the project stage which can be reached at the end of the current period is judged by comparing with the end of the current period, and the project stage is divided into five stages of non-starting construction, settlement and settlement completion, wherein specific judgment logic is as follows:
if the end time of the project is less than the actual start time of the project, judging that the end of the project is in an unoperated state; if no actual start time exists, taking project plan start time as the actual start time;
if the end time of the current period is more than or equal to the project time start time and the end time of the current period is less than the predicted project plan production time (or actual production time), judging that the end of the project period is in the start construction stage;
if the current period end time is more than or equal to the predicted project plan production time (or actual production time) and the current period end time is less than the predicted project settlement time, judging that the project end is in a stage to be settled;
If the current term end time is more than or equal to the predicted project settlement time and the current term end time is less than the predicted project settlement time, judging that the project end is in a stage to be settled;
If the final time of the current period is more than or equal to the predicted project settlement time, judging that the final period of the project is in the settlement completion stage.
Acquiring the wholesale approximate calculation data of a pending calculation project, and for 10 (20) kilovolts and below, taking project plan total investment, predicting project total amount of calculation based on project balance rate in key parameters, taking the predicted total amount of calculation as a pricing base of engineering cost, namely, the pricing base of the project engineering cost = project pre-calculation amount = Q i x (1-bj), wherein Q i is the wholesale approximate calculation of extra-high voltage and 750-35 kilovolts of projects or the plan total investment of 10 (20) kilovolts and below; bj is the balance rate of the calculated amount of the sub-voltage-class power grid infrastructure project.
And finally, based on the project stage predicted value and the project cost pricing standard, predicting to obtain the final accumulated project cost predicted value of the current period by adopting a preset accumulated accounting proportion adjustment rule.
In an optional implementation manner, the preset accumulated accounting proportion adjustment rule includes:
When the accumulated construction progress is less than 30%, the accumulated project cost predicted value at the end of the period=the estimated total amount of money by the time of interception to the accumulated accounting proportion of project production by the time of the end of the period (the end of the period-the actual project starting time)/the estimated total construction period;
When the accumulated construction progress is greater than or equal to 30%, the accumulated project cost predicted value at the end of the period=the estimated total amount of money, the proportion of accumulated accounting for the project production is cut off, the construction period at the end of the period (the end of the period-the actual working time of the project)/the estimated total construction period+the estimated equipment cost (or the estimated total amount of money is 20%).
Specifically, because the difference of the accumulated accounting proportion between the engineering starting time and the engineering production time is larger, an accumulated accounting proportion adjustment rule of the started engineering project is constructed, the accuracy of prediction is improved by combining with actual condition adjustment, if the project is predicted to be unable to be produced at the end of the current period and still in the construction stage, the accumulated engineering cost is predicted from the end of the current period by combining with the construction progress, and the concrete algorithm is as follows:
When the accumulated construction progress is less than 30%, the ratio of the constructed construction period and the estimated construction total period which are cut off to the end of the current period is adopted as the accumulated accounting proportion for prediction, namely the predicted value of the accumulated engineering cost at the end of the current period = the estimated total amount of money, the accumulated accounting proportion of the project production cut-off to the project production, the constructed construction period (the end time of the current period-the actual working time of the project) at the end of the current period)/the estimated construction total period;
When the accumulated construction progress is greater than or equal to 30%, calculating by adding an approximate calculation equipment fee on the basis of the predicted data which is less than 30%, if the approximate calculation equipment fee is not available, using the calculated total sum of 20%, namely, the accumulated project cost predicted value at the end of the current period=the calculated total sum of the estimated time and the accumulated accounting proportion of project production, the construction period at the end of the current period (the end of the current period-the actual working time of the project)/the estimated construction total period+the approximate calculation equipment fee (or the calculated total sum of 20%).
In an alternative embodiment, after the predicting obtains the predicted value of the accumulated engineering cost at the end of the period, the method further includes:
And if the predicted value of the accumulated engineering cost at the end of the current period is smaller than the predicted value of the accumulated engineering cost at the beginning of the current period, taking the predicted value of the accumulated engineering cost at the beginning of the current period as the predicted value of the accumulated engineering cost at the end of the current period.
Specifically, after the predicted value of the accumulated engineering cost at the end of the current period is obtained, the predicted value is also required to be corrected, and if the predicted value of the accumulated engineering cost at the end of the current period is greater than or equal to the value of the accumulated engineering cost at the beginning of the current period, the correction is not performed;
And if the predicted value of the accumulated engineering cost at the end of the current period is smaller than the predicted value of the accumulated engineering cost at the beginning of the current period, taking the predicted value of the accumulated engineering cost at the beginning of the current period as the predicted value of the accumulated engineering cost at the end of the current period.
In an alternative embodiment, the comparing the forecast value of the accumulated engineering cost at the end of the current period with the current year investment plan to obtain an evaluation result includes:
And calculating to obtain the execution investment risk of the power grid project according to the accumulated project cost predicted value at the end of the current period and the current year investment plan, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
Investment execution risk= (current period project cost predicted value-current year investment plan)/current year investment plan= (current period project cost predicted value accumulated since the end of current period, project cost accumulated since the end of last period-current year investment plan)/current year investment plan.
Specifically, according to the accumulated project cost predicted value at the end of the current period and the current year investment plan, the evaluation of the execution risk of the investment of the power grid infrastructure projects of each voltage level is realized by comparison, and the calculation formula is as follows:
Investment execution risk= (current period project cost predicted value-current year investment plan)/current year investment plan= (current period project cost predicted value accumulated since the end of current period, project cost accumulated since the end of last period-current year investment plan)/current year investment plan.
In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides an apparatus for risk assessment of investment performance of a power grid project, referring to fig. 3, which is a schematic structural diagram of an embodiment of an apparatus for risk assessment of investment performance of a power grid project provided by the present invention.
As shown in fig. 3, the apparatus includes:
the data acquisition module 31 is used for acquiring basic project data of the power grid project; wherein the power grid project comprises a commissioned project, a completed resolution project and a pending calculation project;
a parameter configuration module 32, configured to analyze the basic project data to obtain key parameters;
the model building module 33 is configured to build an engineering cost prediction model, input the key parameters into the engineering cost prediction model, and calculate to obtain an accumulated engineering cost prediction value at the end of the period;
And the risk assessment module 34 is configured to compare and assess the forecast value of the accumulated engineering cost at the end of the current period with the current year investment plan, so as to obtain an assessment result.
In an alternative embodiment, the base project data includes commissioned project data, completed resolution project data, established parameter data, and pending project data.
In an alternative embodiment, the key parameters include a reasonable construction period, a balance rate of the project, and a cumulative posting ratio, and the parameter configuration module 32 includes:
The actual average construction period calculation unit is used for calculating the actual average construction period of the put-in project based on the actual start-up time and the actual put-in time of the put-in project;
The actual average construction period correcting unit is used for correcting the actual average construction period according to a preset correction rule to obtain a corrected reasonable construction period;
the project balance rate calculation unit is used for calculating the project balance rate based on the project approximate calculation amount and the project settlement amount of the completed settlement project;
the accumulated account-entering proportion calculating unit is used for calculating the accumulated account-entering proportion of different engineering stages according to the project balance rate and the completed resolution project data; the engineering stage comprises an unoperated stage, an construction stage, a settlement stage and a settlement completion stage.
In an alternative embodiment, the model building module 33 includes:
The project stage prediction unit is used for predicting the project stage of the unfinished resolution project at the end of the project period to obtain a project stage prediction value;
The project cost price-computing reference calculation unit is used for predicting project settlement total amount according to the project balance rate, and taking the project settlement total amount as a project cost price-computing reference;
and the current period end accumulated engineering cost prediction unit is used for predicting and obtaining the current period end accumulated engineering cost prediction value by adopting a preset accumulated accounting proportion adjustment rule based on the engineering period prediction value and the project engineering cost pricing standard.
In an optional implementation manner, the preset accumulated accounting proportion adjustment rule includes:
When the accumulated construction progress is less than 30%, the accumulated project cost predicted value at the end of the period=the estimated total amount of money by the time of interception to the accumulated accounting proportion of project production by the time of the end of the period (the end of the period-the actual project starting time)/the estimated total construction period;
When the accumulated construction progress is greater than or equal to 30%, the accumulated project cost predicted value at the end of the period=the estimated total amount of money, the proportion of accumulated accounting for the project production is cut off, the construction period at the end of the period (the end of the period-the actual working time of the project)/the estimated total construction period+the estimated equipment cost (or the estimated total amount of money is 20%).
In an alternative embodiment, after the predicting obtains the predicted value of the accumulated engineering cost at the end of the period, the method further includes:
And if the predicted value of the accumulated engineering cost at the end of the current period is smaller than the predicted value of the accumulated engineering cost at the beginning of the current period, taking the predicted value of the accumulated engineering cost at the beginning of the current period as the predicted value of the accumulated engineering cost at the end of the current period.
In an alternative embodiment, the risk assessment module 34 includes:
And calculating to obtain the execution investment risk of the power grid project according to the accumulated project cost predicted value at the end of the current period and the current year investment plan, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
Investment execution risk= (current period project cost predicted value-current year investment plan)/current year investment plan= (current period project cost predicted value accumulated since the end of current period, project cost accumulated since the end of last period-current year investment plan)/current year investment plan.
In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides an electronic device, and referring to fig. 4, a schematic structural diagram of the electronic device provided in the embodiment of the present invention is shown.
As shown in fig. 4, the apparatus includes:
A memory 41 for storing a computer program;
a processor 42 for executing the computer program;
Wherein the processor 42, when executing the computer program, implements a method for investment performance risk assessment for a grid project as described in any of the embodiments above.
Illustratively, the computer program may be partitioned into one or more modules/units that are stored in the memory 41 and executed by the processor 42 to complete the present invention. The one or more modules/units may be a series of computer program instruction segments capable of performing the specified functions, which instruction segments are used for describing the execution of the computer program in the electronic device.
The Processor 42 may be a central processing unit (Central Processing Unit, CPU), but may also be other general purpose processors, digital signal processors (DIGITAL SIGNAL Processor, DSP), application SPECIFIC INTEGRATED Circuit (ASIC), field-Programmable gate array (Field-Programmable GATE ARRAY, FPGA) or other Programmable logic device, discrete gate or transistor logic device, discrete hardware components, or the like. A general purpose processor may be a microprocessor or the processor may be any conventional processor or the like.
The memory 41 may be used to store the computer program and/or module, and the processor 42 may implement various functions of the electronic device by running or executing the computer program and/or module stored in the memory 41, and invoking data stored in the memory 41. The memory 41 may mainly include a storage program area and a storage data area, wherein the storage program area may store an operating system, an application program (such as a sound playing function, an image playing function, etc.) required for at least one function, and the like; the storage data area may store data (such as audio data, phonebook, etc.) created according to the use of the handset, etc. In addition, the memory 41 may include high-speed random access memory, and may also include nonvolatile memory, such as a hard disk, memory, plug-in hard disk, smart memory card (SMART MEDIA CARD, SMC), secure Digital (SD) card, flash memory card (FLASH CARD), at least one magnetic disk storage device, flash memory device, or other volatile solid-state storage device.
It should be noted that the above electronic device includes, but is not limited to, a processor, a memory, and those skilled in the art will understand that the schematic diagram of fig. 4 is merely an example of the above electronic device, and does not limit the electronic device, and may include more components than those illustrated, or some components may be combined, or different components.
In a fourth aspect, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a computer readable storage medium, where a computer program is stored, where the computer program is executed to implement the investment execution risk assessment method for a grid project according to any one of the embodiments above.
It should be understood that the present invention may implement all or part of the above-mentioned investment execution risk assessment method for the grid project, or may be implemented by instructing the relevant hardware by a computer program, where the computer program may be stored in a computer readable storage medium, and the computer program, when executed by a processor, may implement the steps of the above-mentioned investment execution risk assessment method for the grid project. Wherein the computer program comprises computer program code, which may be in the form of source code, object code, executable files or in some intermediate form, etc. The computer readable medium may include: any entity or device capable of carrying the computer program code, a recording medium, a U disk, a removable hard disk, a magnetic disk, an optical disk, a computer Memory, a Read-Only Memory (ROM), a random access Memory (RAM, random Access Memory), an electrical carrier signal, a telecommunications signal, a software distribution medium, and so forth. It should be noted that the content of the computer readable medium can be appropriately increased or decreased according to the requirements of the jurisdiction's jurisdiction and the patent practice, for example, in some jurisdictions, the computer readable medium does not include electrical carrier signals and telecommunication signals according to the jurisdiction and the patent practice.
While the invention has been described with reference to the preferred embodiments, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that various changes in form and detail may be made therein without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention as defined by the appended claims.
Claims (10)
1. A method for performing risk assessment on investment in a power grid project, comprising:
Acquiring basic project data of a power grid project; wherein the power grid project comprises a commissioned project, a completed resolution project and a pending calculation project;
Analyzing the basic project data to obtain key parameters;
establishing an engineering cost prediction model, inputting the key parameters into the engineering cost prediction model, and calculating to obtain a cumulative engineering cost prediction value at the end of the period;
And comparing and evaluating the forecast value of the accumulated engineering cost at the end of the current period with the current year investment plan to obtain an evaluation result.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the base project data includes commissioned project data, completed resolution project data, established parameter data, and pending project data.
3. The method for evaluating risk of investment execution for a power grid project according to claim 1, wherein the key parameters include a reasonable construction period, a project balance rate and a cumulative accounting proportion, and the analyzing the basic project data to obtain the key parameters comprises:
Calculating to obtain the actual average construction period of the put-on project based on the actual start-up time and the actual put-on time of the put-on project;
Correcting the actual average construction period according to a preset correction rule to obtain a corrected reasonable construction period;
calculating to obtain a project balance rate based on the project approximate amount and the project resolution amount of the completed resolution project;
Calculating the accumulated accounting proportion of different engineering stages according to the project balance rate and the completed resolution project data; the engineering stage comprises an unoperated stage, an construction stage, a settlement stage and a settlement completion stage.
4. The method for evaluating risk of investment execution of a power grid project according to claim 1, wherein the establishing an engineering cost prediction model, inputting the key parameters into the engineering cost prediction model, and calculating to obtain the cumulative engineering cost prediction value at the end of the period, comprises:
predicting the project stage of the unfinished resolution project at the end of the project period to obtain a project stage predicted value;
predicting the total amount of the project settlement according to the project balance rate, and taking the total amount of the project settlement as a project engineering cost price-calculating reference;
and based on the project stage predicted value and the project cost pricing standard, predicting to obtain a final accumulated project cost predicted value of the current period by adopting a preset accumulated accounting proportion adjustment rule.
5. The method for risk assessment of investment performance of a grid project according to claim 4, wherein the preset cumulative posting scaling rule comprises:
When the accumulated construction progress is less than 30%, the accumulated project cost predicted value at the end of the period=the estimated total amount of money by the time of interception to the accumulated accounting proportion of project production by the time of the end of the period (the end of the period-the actual project starting time)/the estimated total construction period;
When the accumulated construction progress is greater than or equal to 30%, the accumulated project cost predicted value at the end of the period=the estimated total amount of money, the proportion of accumulated accounting for the project production is cut off, the construction period at the end of the period (the end of the period-the actual working time of the project)/the estimated total construction period+the estimated equipment cost (or the estimated total amount of money is 20%).
6. The method for evaluating risk of investment execution in a power grid project according to claim 4, wherein after the predicting obtains the predicted value of the accumulated engineering cost at the end of the period, the method further comprises:
And if the predicted value of the accumulated engineering cost at the end of the current period is smaller than the predicted value of the accumulated engineering cost at the beginning of the current period, taking the predicted value of the accumulated engineering cost at the beginning of the current period as the predicted value of the accumulated engineering cost at the end of the current period.
7. The method for evaluating risk of investment execution of a power grid project according to claim 1, wherein comparing the forecast value of the accumulated engineering cost at the end of the current period with the current year investment plan to obtain an evaluation result comprises:
And calculating to obtain the execution investment risk of the power grid project according to the accumulated project cost predicted value at the end of the current period and the current year investment plan, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
Investment execution risk= (current period project cost predicted value-current year investment plan)/current year investment plan= (current period project cost predicted value accumulated since the end of current period, project cost accumulated since the end of last period-current year investment plan)/current year investment plan.
8. An investment execution risk assessment device for a power grid project, comprising:
The data acquisition module is used for acquiring basic project data of the power grid project; wherein the power grid project comprises a commissioned project, a completed resolution project and a pending calculation project;
the parameter configuration module is used for analyzing the basic project data to obtain key parameters;
The model building module is used for building an engineering cost prediction model, inputting the key parameters into the engineering cost prediction model, and calculating to obtain an accumulated engineering cost prediction value at the end of the period;
and the risk assessment module is used for comparing and assessing the forecast value of the accumulated engineering cost at the end of the current period with the current year investment plan to obtain an assessment result.
9. An electronic device, comprising:
A memory for storing a computer program;
A processor for executing the computer program;
wherein the processor, when executing the computer program, implements a method of investment performance risk assessment for a grid project according to any one of claims 1 to 7.
10. A computer readable storage medium, characterized in that the computer readable storage medium stores a computer program which, when executed, implements the investment performance risk assessment method of a grid project according to any one of claims 1 to 7.
Publications (1)
| Publication Number | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| CN118261421A true CN118261421A (en) | 2024-06-28 |
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