CN117541190A - Mountain torrent disaster early warning method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention relates to the technical field of mountain torrents early warning, and discloses a mountain torrents disaster early warning method which comprises the steps of collecting, analyzing, summarizing and summarizing mountain torrents disaster data in a dangerous area of mountain torrents disaster early warning in a target area; the mountain torrent disaster early warning mainly uses rainfall early warning indexes, critical rainfall is calculated according to the water level and flow rate relation of the disaster water level mainly based on site investigation in analysis and evaluation, critical rainfall is calculated by using critical flow rate, and the early warning indexes are determined by comprehensively considering factors such as soil water content in different early stages, converging time of small watershed, critical rainfall value in different time periods and the like. Compared with the prior art, the mountain torrent detection early warning system has the advantages of improving timeliness and accuracy of mountain torrent detection early warning and the like.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of mountain torrents early warning, in particular to an early warning method of mountain torrents disasters.
Background
In the prior art, a mountain area small-river basin mountain flood disaster early warning method based on rain-water-sand change is proposed in a Chinese patent document with the publication number of CN111400643B, the coupling effect of silt and flood in the mountain area small-river basin is considered, the problem of water level increase caused by silt silted beds is considered when an early warning index is established, more scientific basis and guidance can be provided for mountain area small-river basin mountain flood disaster prevention and control, but the problem of frequent repeated retransmission of mountain flood disasters caused by heavy rainfall in hilly areas of a mountain area is not solved, the phenomena of untimely detection and early warning and excessive early warning of missed and empty early warning exist in the existing prevention and control system, and therefore, the application discloses a mountain flood disaster early warning method for meeting the requirements of improving the timeliness and accuracy of detection and early warning.
Disclosure of Invention
(one) solving the technical problems
Aiming at the defects of the prior art, the invention provides a mountain torrent disaster early warning method which has the advantages of improving the timeliness and the accuracy of detection early warning and the like, and solves the series of problems of insufficient timeliness and accuracy of detection early warning and the like of the existing mountain torrent control system in hilly areas.
(II) technical scheme
In order to achieve the above purpose, the present invention provides the following technical solutions: a mountain torrent disaster early warning method comprises the following steps:
s1, collecting, analyzing, summarizing and summarizing mountain torrent disaster data of a dangerous area of mountain torrent disaster early warning of a target area;
the mountain torrent disaster early warning mainly uses rainfall early warning indexes, critical rainfall is calculated according to the water level and flow rate relation of the disaster in the analysis and evaluation, critical rainfall is calculated by using critical flow rate, and the early warning indexes are determined by comprehensively considering factors such as soil water content in different early stages, converging time of a small river basin, critical rainfall value in different periods and the like;
the water level and flow relation mainly adopts a Manning formula, the early-stage influence rainfall is considered according to three conditions of drier, general and wet soil of a river basin, and the design of storm flood mainly adopts data such as a local storm map set, a hydrological manual and the like and adopts methods such as an inference formula and the like for calculation;
checking and rechecking the early warning indexes by using actually-generated larger flood, verifying and analyzing the rationality of the early warning indexes, and improving the accuracy of the early warning indexes;
the rainfall early warning index checking and rechecking is to check and recheck the water level and flow relation by utilizing the recently generated large flood data, analyze and design the applicability of the storm flood calculation method and the rationality of parameters, and check and recheck the critical rainfall and early warning index;
the water level early warning index checking and rechecking key point is to analyze the reasonability of the disaster-forming water level and the foreseeing period;
according to requirements, combining the topography distribution, climate difference and rainfall distribution conditions of a target area, and according to various monitoring data and historical flood investigation data in recent years, on the basis of mountain torrent disaster investigation and evaluation results completed in three years, selecting a plurality of counties (cities and regions) from mountain torrent disaster project counties of the target area according to factors such as investigation evaluation work basic conditions, third-year mountain torrent disaster occurrence severity, regional distribution and the like, and carrying out inspection, calibration and rechecking on mountain torrent disaster evaluation early warning indexes and the like;
the examination, calibration and rechecking work of the early investigation and evaluation results of a plurality of county areas are carried out in succession in the following four years;
s2, determining a dangerous area early warning index analysis calculation and associated station selection method, providing an optimized dangerous area station associated configuration and monitoring early warning scheme, realizing the whole area mountain torrent dangerous area inventory management, establishing a whole area mountain torrent disaster dynamic early warning system, continuously improving mountain torrent disaster early warning accuracy and prolonging the foreseeing period;
in the middle two years of developing early investigation and evaluation results of a plurality of county regions, building a flood prevention and early warning system of seven rural base layers of four cities according to a building implementation scheme of a flood prevention and early warning system of a rural base layer of a target region, comprehensively checking the current situation of flood disasters of the whole region, formulating early warning indexes, and providing basic support for timely and accurately issuing early warning information and safety transfer personnel;
gradually summarizing investigation evaluation results to a national, provincial, municipal and county monitoring and early warning platform;
in the last year and one year after the early investigation and evaluation results of a plurality of counties and regions are developed, the mountain torrent disaster safety hazard investigation and the dangerous region rechecking work are developed in the whole region, the mountain torrent disaster risk investigation is further developed except for the ascertained mountain torrent disaster dangerous region and hidden trouble points, the newly discovered hidden trouble points are brought into the monitoring and early warning range, the implementation of related measures and responsible persons are guided, the hidden danger is eliminated in time, and the mountain torrent disaster prevention and control system of the target region is further perfected;
s3, aiming at the karst region, combining the factors of the underlying surface under the rainfall condition, utilizing the gradient, the flow speed and the like to calculate the early warning water level, and establishing an early warning index method of the karst region.
Preferably, the mountain torrent disaster data in S1 includes a directory, population, house, foundation information of small river basin, wading engineering, land along river village, historical flood, enterprise and public institution, river section and residence elevation, etc. based on a database of mountain torrent disaster investigation and evaluation, a mountain torrent disaster related station selection method is determined based on related specifications, and a dynamic early warning index system is initially established.
Preferably, the mountain torrent disaster risk index analysis comprises index selection, index analysis and index application, and the mountain torrent disaster real-time dynamic early warning index analysis comprises index selection, real-time dynamic rainfall early warning index analysis, a real-time dynamic water level (flow) early warning index analysis method and real-time dynamic early warning index application.
Preferably, in order to meet the early warning precision of each dangerous area, the flood disaster prevention departments can timely master the real-time monitoring, early warning and response information of the flood disaster, the actual situation of a target area is combined according to the related rule specification requirements, and the mountain flood disaster monitoring and early warning information management platform is based on the mountain flood disaster related station measurement selection method.
(III) beneficial effects
Compared with the prior art, the invention provides a mountain torrent disaster early warning method, which has the following beneficial effects:
1. according to the mountain torrent disaster early warning method, by establishing a mountain torrent disaster dynamic early warning index system of a target area, mountain torrent disaster risk points of a whole area are cleared, a mountain torrent disaster hidden danger area and a mountain torrent disaster dynamic management list of the whole area are formed, and by mountain torrent disaster risk early warning analysis and mountain torrent disaster real-time dynamic early warning index analysis, construction of a rainfall (water level) dynamic early warning index system of the mountain torrent disaster dangerous area of the whole area is completed, mountain torrent disaster early warning accuracy is improved, and a foreseeing period is prolonged.
2. According to the mountain torrent disaster early warning method, by determining the mountain torrent disaster dangerous area association and station selection method, the mountain torrent disaster dangerous area association and station selection method is determined for the first time in the whole area according to the analysis dangerous area station association configuration such as the Thiessen polygon method, the single station nearest law, the point distance method and the neighbor analysis method by combining with the GIS platform, so that the mountain torrent disaster dangerous area real-time detection condition can be mastered, geological disaster information such as mountain torrent and debris flow is shared with natural resource departments, the popularization and application fields are very wide, mountain torrent disaster non-engineering facilities are accurately built by utilizing research results, a mountain torrent disaster monitoring and early warning network of a target area is basically built, the problem that basic mountain torrent disasters lack monitoring means and early warning facilities are effectively solved, the wide application of results is achieved, good benefits are superimposed on flood risk and general investigation disaster monitoring and forecasting level and mountain torrent disaster prevention capability are further improved, and the mountain torrent disaster prevention and early warning method has wide popularization and application prospects.
3. According to the early warning method for the mountain torrent disasters, the early warning index method for the karst areas is established, the early warning water level is deduced by utilizing gradient, flow speed and the like according to the rainfall condition and combining with the underlying factors in the karst areas, so that the problems of lack of hydrologic elements in the karst areas and difficulty in forecasting are effectively solved, and the loss caused by the mountain torrent disasters is greatly reduced.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a trend chart of a disaster recovery population of a target area according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a graph of overall mortality population trends for a target area in an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a roadmap of the dynamic early warning index analysis technique of mountain torrent disasters;
FIG. 4 is a first karst landform map in an embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 5 is a first karst landform map in an embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 6 is a flow chart of karst landform water in an embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 7 is a flow chart of the karst region early warning index establishment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The following description of the embodiments of the present invention will be made clearly and completely with reference to the accompanying drawings, in which it is apparent that the embodiments described are only some embodiments of the present invention, but not all embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be made by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the invention without making any inventive effort, are intended to be within the scope of the invention.
As described in the background art, the prior art has the defects, and in order to solve the technical problems, the application provides a mountain torrent disaster early warning method.
In an exemplary embodiment of the present application, as shown in fig. 1 to 7, a method for early warning a mountain torrent disaster includes the following steps:
s1, collecting, analyzing, summarizing and summarizing mountain torrent disaster data of a dangerous area of mountain torrent disaster early warning of a target area;
the mountain torrent disaster early warning mainly uses rainfall early warning indexes, critical rainfall is calculated according to the disaster water level of field investigation in analysis and evaluation, critical rainfall is calculated by utilizing critical flow back calculation, the early warning indexes are determined by comprehensively considering factors such as soil water content in different early stages, converging time of a small river basin, critical rainfall value of different periods and the like, a mountain torrent disaster dynamic early warning system is promoted and established, the accuracy of mountain torrent disaster early warning is further improved, the early warning period is prolonged, the early warning coverage is enlarged, and scientific support is provided for mountain torrent disaster risk forecasting and early warning social service and mountain torrent disaster early warning transfer decisions in all regions;
the method mainly comprises the steps of designing a rainstorm flood according to three conditions of drier, general and wet soil of a river basin, calculating by adopting a local rainstorm chart set, a hydrological manual and other data, adopting an inference formula and other methods, and analyzing dynamic early warning indexes of the mountain torrent disaster, wherein the dynamic early warning indexes mainly correspond to mountain torrent disaster (weather) risk early warning and mountain torrent disaster real-time dynamic early warning requirements;
the method comprises the steps of checking and rechecking early warning indexes by using actually-generated larger floods, verifying and analyzing the rationality of the early warning indexes, improving the accuracy of the early warning indexes, and checking and analyzing the rationality of the early warning indexes by using actually-generated larger floods, wherein in the critical rainfall calculation process, if the calculation result possibly generates larger errors, such as the representativeness of the disaster water level, the applicability of Man Ning Gong, the water level drop, the roughness and the selection of effective water cross sections, designing the rationality of storm flood calculation methods and parameter values, designing the rationality of rainfall, influencing the rainfall in the early period and the like, so that the rationality of the early warning indexes can be improved by using the actually-generated larger floods;
the rainfall early warning index checking and rechecking is to check and recheck the water level and flow relation by utilizing the recently generated large flood data, analyze and design the applicability of the storm flood calculation method and the rationality of parameters, and check and recheck the critical rainfall and early warning index;
the water level early warning index checking and rechecking key point is to analyze the reasonability of the disaster-forming water level and the foreseeing period;
according to requirements, combining the topography distribution, climate difference and rainfall distribution conditions of a target area, and according to various monitoring data and historical flood investigation data in recent years, on the basis of mountain torrent disaster investigation and evaluation results completed in three years, selecting a plurality of counties (cities and regions) from mountain torrent disaster project counties of the target area according to factors such as investigation evaluation work basic conditions, third-year mountain torrent disaster occurrence severity, regional distribution and the like, and carrying out inspection, calibration and rechecking on mountain torrent disaster evaluation early warning indexes and the like;
the examination, calibration and rechecking work of the early investigation and evaluation results of a plurality of county and district are carried out continuously for four years, so that the problems of insufficient timeliness and accuracy of monitoring and early warning in the county and district, missing report, empty report, untimely early warning and excessive early warning are solved;
s2, determining a dangerous area early warning index analysis calculation and associated station selection method, providing an optimized dangerous area station associated configuration and monitoring early warning scheme, realizing the whole area mountain torrent dangerous area inventory management, establishing a whole area mountain torrent disaster dynamic early warning system, continuously improving mountain torrent disaster early warning accuracy and prolonging the foreseeing period;
in the middle two years of developing early investigation and evaluation results of a plurality of county regions, developing construction of a multi-region rural basic-level flood prevention prediction early-warning system of a plurality of cities according to a construction implementation scheme of a target-region rural basic-level flood prevention prediction early-warning system, comprehensively checking the current situation of flood disasters of the whole region, formulating early-warning indexes, and providing basic support for timely and accurate issuing of early-warning information and safe transfer personnel;
the investigation evaluation results are summarized to the national, provincial, municipal and county level monitoring and early warning platform step by step, so that precious first-hand data is provided for formulating non-engineering measures of flood disasters, treatment of flood dangerous areas, construction of a group measurement group prevention system, perfect application of the county level monitoring and early warning platform results and revision and perfection of various levels of disaster prevention plans;
in the last year and one year after the early investigation and evaluation results of a plurality of counties and regions are developed, the mountain torrent disaster safety hazard investigation and the dangerous region rechecking work are developed in the whole region, the mountain torrent disaster risk investigation is further developed except for the ascertained mountain torrent disaster dangerous region and hidden trouble points, the newly discovered hidden trouble points are brought into the monitoring and early warning range, the implementation of related measures and responsible persons are guided, the hidden danger is eliminated in time, and the mountain torrent disaster prevention and control system of the target region is further perfected;
s3, aiming at the karst area, combining with factors of the underlying surface, utilizing slope, flow speed and the like to calculate early warning water level, establishing an early warning index method of the karst area, wherein the karst area situation of the target area takes Guangxi as an example, the karst landform accounts for 51% of the total land area of the Guangxi, the karst area is mainly distributed in the osmanthus, the osmanthus and the northeast, and the karst area is provided with various forms such as karst depression/valley, karst wells, karst bucket skylights, water falling holes, underground rivers, karst holes and the like for supplementing water or draining villages due to the complex karst situation, and the karst channels are all around, the injection points and the outlet points are unknown, the adoption of rainfall intensity as an early warning index in a small range is inapplicable, the adoption of water level early warning is simple, effective and visual, therefore, the rainfall condition of the karst area is considered, the factors of the underlying surface are combined, the early warning water level is calculated by utilizing slope drop, flow rate, topography and the like, an early warning index method of the karst area is established, according to analysis and calculation results of the karst area in Guangxi province, the minimum value of all resident house data in villages affected by the waterlogging of the rock is set up as the disaster forming water level of the village by taking 30 minutes of flood propagation time as control, namely the immediate transfer water level, and the immediate transfer water level is reduced by 0.5m-1m as the preparation transfer water level.
As a preferred implementation manner in this embodiment, referring to fig. 3, the mountain torrent disaster data in S1 includes a directory, population, house, foundation information of small river basin, wading engineering, land along river village, historical flood, enterprise and public institution, river section and residence elevation of the dangerous area, and the like, and based on a database of mountain torrent disaster investigation and evaluation, a mountain torrent dangerous area association station measurement selection method is determined based on relevant specifications, and a dynamic early warning index system is initially established.
As a preferred implementation manner in this embodiment, referring to fig. 3, the mountain torrent disaster risk index analysis includes index selection, index analysis and index application, the mountain torrent disaster real-time dynamic early warning index analysis includes index selection, real-time dynamic rainfall early warning index analysis, real-time dynamic water level (flow) early warning index analysis method and real-time dynamic early warning index application, the index selection combines the early warning information source and basic data condition, selects the dominant factor with the greatest influence on the mountain torrent disaster risk degree as the basis for determining the early warning index, and selects 1-24h grid rainfall as the mountain torrent disaster risk early warning index at this stage, and respectively corresponds to early warning of 4 risk levels of low (possible occurrence, blue early warning), medium (possible large, yellow early warning), high (possible large, orange early warning) and extremely high (possible large, red early warning); the index analysis is to predict rainfall at different periods of 1-24 hours in hydrology and meteorological departments as information sources, take small drainage basins as units, determine rainfall at a leading period, comprehensively consider the characteristics of risk factors such as storm rainfall, flood peak modulus, confluence time, current flood control capacity and the like at different reproduction periods, determine critical rainfall running value references at different risk levels, consider early rainfall or soil water content states and the like for adjustment, determine mountain torrent disaster risk early warning indexes at different levels, adopt mountain torrent disaster actual data for rationality analysis, timely summarize mountain torrent disaster events and early warning effects, and timely adjust risk early warning index values; the index application in the mountain torrent disaster risk index analysis is that when the rainfall of 1-24h grid forecast exceeds the corresponding grade early warning index, the administrative district and the corresponding risk grade where the mountain torrent disaster possibly occurs are analyzed and determined, each level of mountain torrent disaster defending departments in the whole supporting district provide future 1-24h mountain torrent disaster risk early warning information service for the same government flood control departments and the public society by utilizing new media such as networks, televisions, broadcasting and the like, and can share related risk early warning information to related government or industry departments, so as to carry out mountain torrent disaster risk prompt, and the index selection is to apply actual measurement rainfall (water level) data or 1-6h short-term rainfall data to carry out mountain torrent disaster real-time dynamic early warning, firstly, according to the adopted storm analysis and calculation method, the real-time dynamic rainfall early warning index is selected, namely, the rainfall in each early warning period is selected as the real-time dynamic early warning index, and divided into two stages, and corresponding to the preparation transfer of a disaster prevention object and the immediate transfer of 2 grades of early warning; secondly, real-time dynamic water level (flow) early warning indexes; if a distributed hydrological model analysis method is adopted, the disaster-forming water level (flow) of a typical section is directly selected as a real-time dynamic early warning index, and the early warning index is divided into two stages, and respectively corresponds to the preparation transfer of a disaster prevention object and the early warning of immediately transferring 2 grades; the real-time dynamic rainfall early warning index analysis is determined by adopting an analysis calculation method of disaster water level and design storm flood back-pushing critical rainfall, according to the disaster water level back-pushing critical rainfall, calculating a flow value corresponding to the disaster water level by adopting a specific drop area method, a Manning formula or a water level flow relation and the like according to the disaster water level, and according to the design storm flood calculation method and typical storm time course distribution, considering the dynamic change of the water content of the soil, when a back-computing design flood peak reaches the flow value, the rainfall of storm is designed in each early warning period, namely the critical rainfall of a disaster prevention object, comprehensively determining the rainfall early warning index according to the critical rainfall and early warning response time, analyzing the rationality of the result, dividing the basic flow of real-time dynamic rainfall early warning index analysis into four steps of determining the early warning period, analyzing the soil water content of a river basin, comprehensively determining the critical rainfall index, timely summarizing the mountain flood event and the early warning effect, carrying out early warning index checking and checking work, and adjusting the dynamic early warning index value; the real-time dynamic water level (flow) early warning index analysis method adopts a distributed hydrological model analysis method, directly selects the disaster-formation water level (flow) along the control section of the river village, the town and the town as the real-time dynamic early warning index value, wherein the early warning index can be divided into two stages and respectively corresponds to the early warning of preparing to transfer and immediately transferring 2 grades, under the general condition, the disaster-formation water level (flow) is the immediately transferring early warning index, the early warning index preparing to transfer can be determined by a disaster-formation water level (flow) reduction method, and the water level (flow) corresponding to 30 minutes before the occurrence of the disaster-formation water level (flow) can be used as the preparation transferring early warning index on the process line of calculating the flood water level (flow); the real-time dynamic early warning index application is that the real-time dynamic rainfall early warning index and the real-time dynamic water level (flow) early warning index are used for issuing real-time dynamic early warning information of the mountain torrent disasters to towns (villages and street offices) and villages (communities) in the power-assisted areas, and the towns (villages and street offices) and the villages (communities) transmit the early warning information to the power-assisted areas and people, and mainly adopt the real-time dynamic early warning of the water level (flow) based on a hydrological model to further improve the early warning accuracy of the mountain torrent disasters; the mountain torrent disaster early warning system is pushed to be established by comprehensively considering factors such as the characteristics of torrent floods in small watersheds, the early-stage rainfall or the change of the water content of soil and the like, so that the mountain torrent disaster early warning system is further improved in accuracy, the forestation period is prolonged, the early warning coverage is expanded, and scientific support is provided for mountain torrent disaster risk prediction early warning social services and mountain torrent disaster early warning transfer decisions in all regions.
As a preferred implementation manner in this embodiment, referring to fig. 3, in order to meet the early warning precision of each danger area, to ensure that the flood disaster defending department can timely master real-time monitoring, early warning and response information of the flood disaster, according to related rule specification requirements, combining with reality of a target area, providing a method for selecting relevant measuring stations of the flood danger area based on a flood disaster monitoring and early warning information management platform, (1) defining a space range covered by a rainfall station by using a Thiessen polygon method by using an automatic rainfall station position center, and bringing the range into an early warning range in relation to the danger area; (2) when the area of the drainage basin where the dangerous area is located is smaller than 50 square kilometers, a single station nearest law is applied, and a simple rainfall station in the drainage basin is used as an associated measuring station and used as a reference for full drainage basin early warning; when the area of the drainage basin where the dangerous area is located is between 50 and 200 square kilometers, converting according to a point-surface relation method according to the rainfall of the measuring station, and then using the converted rainfall as a reference for full drainage basin early warning; (3) when the drainage basin where the dangerous area is located is in a long and narrow shape, the rainfall early warning information of the upstream village along the river is related to the downstream village by using a point distance method and a neighbor analysis method; (4) in the method, a platform can timely issue early warning information according to an established early warning index system and the real-time monitoring condition of an associated measuring station, in the original mountain torrent monitoring early warning system, a mountain torrent danger zone mainly uses the hydrology associated with a county-level administrative district and a river basin with an area of more than 200 square kilometers, the rainfall and water level monitoring information of a meteorological site as a forecasting early warning reference, the rainfall early warning is not carried out on small river basins of different danger zones by using a point distance method, the accuracy is poor, the method fully utilizes automatic rainfall stations, simple rainfall stations, water level stations and the like distributed in the construction of non-engineering measures of mountain torrent disasters of all danger zones, determines a related measuring station selection method for the areas of different danger zones, combines a GIS danger zone selection method, utilizes a Thiessen method, a single-side danger station method, a full-polygonal danger zone analysis method and the like, and can master all the related situations of the mountain torrent danger zones in real time; the method has the advantages that the hydrological weather data and the mountain torrent disaster investigation and evaluation results are fully utilized, mountain torrent disaster risk early warning analysis and mountain torrent disaster real-time dynamic early warning index analysis are carried out, risk early warning indexes and dynamic early warning index application are carried out, a mountain torrent disaster forecasting and early warning system is combined, a mountain torrent disaster dynamic early warning index system of a target area is built, and the mountain torrent disaster prevention and control system construction of the target area is further perfected.
Although embodiments of the present invention have been shown and described, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that various changes, modifications, substitutions and alterations can be made therein without departing from the principles and spirit of the invention, the scope of which is defined in the appended claims and their equivalents.
Claims (9)
1. The mountain torrent disaster early warning method is characterized by comprising the following operation steps:
collecting, analyzing, summarizing and summarizing mountain torrent disaster data of a dangerous area of mountain torrent disaster early warning of a target area;
determining a dangerous area early warning index analysis calculation and associated station selection method, providing an optimal dangerous area station associated configuration and monitoring early warning scheme, realizing the whole area mountain torrent dangerous area inventory management, establishing a whole area mountain torrent disaster dynamic early warning system, and completing mountain torrent disaster investigation and evaluation;
the mountain torrent disaster investigation evaluation results are summarized and submitted to a national, provincial, municipal and county monitoring and early warning platform step by step, so that multi-stage early warning is realized;
aiming at the karst area, under the condition of rainfall, the factors of the underlying surface are combined, the gradient and the flow velocity are utilized to calculate the early warning water level, and a special early warning index method of the karst area is established.
2. The method for early warning of mountain torrents according to claim 1, which is characterized in that: the mountain torrent disaster data of the dangerous area comprises a dangerous area directory, population, houses, small river basin basic information, wading engineering, a village along river, historical flood, enterprises and public institutions, river sections and homestead elevations, and a mountain torrent disaster investigation and evaluation database is used as a basis to determine a mountain torrent dangerous area association station measurement selection method, so that a dynamic early warning index system is initially established.
3. The method for early warning of mountain torrents according to claim 1, which is characterized in that: the mountain torrent disaster early warning uses rainfall early warning indexes, critical rainfall is calculated according to the disaster water level of field investigation in mountain torrent disaster analysis and evaluation, critical flow is calculated by water level flow relation, critical rainfall is calculated by critical flow, and early warning indexes are determined by comprehensively considering soil water content in different early stages, converging time of small watershed and critical rainfall value factors in different periods.
4. A method for pre-warning a mountain torrent disaster according to claim 3, characterized in that: the water level and flow relation adopts a Manning formula, the early-stage influence rainfall is considered according to three conditions of drier, general and wet soil in a river basin, the storm flood is designed, the local storm map set and hydrological manual data are adopted, and the calculation is carried out by adopting an inference formula method.
5. A method for pre-warning a mountain torrent disaster according to claim 3, characterized in that: and checking and rechecking the rainfall early-warning index by using the flood which actually occurs, verifying and analyzing the rationality of the rainfall early-warning index, and improving the accuracy of the rainfall early-warning index.
6. The method for early warning of mountain torrents according to claim 5, which is characterized in that: and the rainfall early warning index checking and rechecking is to check and recheck the water level and flow relation by utilizing the recently generated flood data, analyze and design the applicability of the storm flood calculation method and the rationality of parameters, and check and recheck the critical rainfall and the rainfall early warning index.
7. The method for early warning of mountain torrents disaster according to claim 6, which is characterized in that: and selecting a plurality of counties (cities and regions) from mountain torrent disaster project counties of the target region according to investigation and evaluation working basic conditions, the third-year mountain torrent disaster occurrence severity and regional distribution factors according to the topography distribution, the climate difference and the rainfall distribution conditions of the target region, and carrying out inspection calibration and rechecking on mountain torrent disaster evaluation and rainfall early warning indexes according to various monitoring data and historical flood investigation data in recent years on the basis of mountain torrent disaster investigation and evaluation results completed in three years.
8. The method for early warning of mountain torrents according to claim 1, which is characterized in that: the mountain torrent disaster risk index analysis comprises index selection, index analysis and index application, and the mountain torrent disaster real-time dynamic early warning index analysis comprises index selection, real-time dynamic rainfall early warning index analysis, a real-time dynamic water level (flow) early warning index analysis method and real-time dynamic early warning index application.
9. The method for early warning of mountain torrents according to claim 1, which is characterized in that: according to the related rule specification requirements, combining with reality of a target area, providing a mountain torrent hazard zone association station measurement selection method based on a mountain torrent hazard monitoring and early warning information management platform, meeting the early warning accuracy of each hazard zone, and ensuring that flood hazard defense departments can timely master mountain torrent hazard real-time monitoring, early warning and response information.
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