CN117473771A - Nuclear pollutant atmospheric channel diffusion prediction system and method - Google Patents
Nuclear pollutant atmospheric channel diffusion prediction system and method Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a nuclear pollutant atmospheric channel diffusion forecasting system and method, comprising a forecasting system body, wherein the forecasting system body comprises a webpage end platform, a computing end platform, a VUEjs frame platform, a WEB map platform, a deployment operation platform, an atmospheric data platform and a diffusion forecasting platform, and the forecasting system comprises a webpage end platform for displaying a forecasting result; nuclear pollutant atmospheric diffusion forecasting module: based on the meteorological field predicted by the T799 atmospheric numerical value prediction system and the constructed atmospheric nuclear pollutant diffusion model, three-dimensional diffusion track prediction, concentration prediction and sedimentation prediction of air masses at different heights are realized, the type of nuclear pollutant, the height and concentration of the air masses can be set according to the requirements of users, the track, concentration and sedimentation process prediction of the nuclear pollutant are realized, and graded warning can be realized according to the predicted concentration and range.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of nuclear pollutants, in particular to a nuclear pollutant atmospheric channel diffusion forecasting system and method.
Background
In recent years, with the wide application of nuclear energy and the construction of nuclear power plants, nuclear pollution is of great concern, and nuclear pollution not only threatens soil and water sources, but also can be spread through air, thereby having serious influence on human health and ecological environment.
The diffusion of nuclear pollution in the air is mainly caused by two reasons, firstly, nuclear accidents or leakage can cause a large amount of radioactive substances to be released into the air, such as radioactive iodine, strontium, plutonium and the like, which have high volatility and drift property and are easy to spread through the air, and secondly, nuclear tests are also important reasons for the diffusion of nuclear pollution in the air, and nuclear radiation substances released by the nuclear tests can be spread to various places around the world through the atmosphere, thus causing potential threats to the environment and human health.
The diffusion path of nuclear pollution in the air is mainly two, namely, the direct diffusion is realized, namely, the nuclear pollutant is directly released into the air and then is spread to other areas through wind force and air flow of an atmosphere, the diffusion mode has the greatest influence on the nearby areas, but the diffusion mode can gradually diffuse to a place further along with the passage of time, and the indirect diffusion is realized, namely, the nuclear pollutant enters soil and a water source through precipitation, sedimentation and other ways and is then released into the air through evaporation, aerosol and other ways, and the diffusion mode not only has influence on the nearby areas, but also can be spread to a place further along through circulation of the atmosphere.
In order to reduce the diffusion of nuclear pollutants in the air, a series of prevention and control methods are needed, firstly, the prevention and monitoring work of nuclear accidents and leakage is needed to be enhanced, the safety regulations are strictly adhered to, the equipment maintenance and management are enhanced, potential safety hazards are timely found and eliminated, meanwhile, a perfect nuclear accident monitoring network is needed to be established, the release condition of the nuclear pollutants is timely mastered so as to take timely effective measures, secondly, the treatment and disposal of the nuclear pollutants are needed to be enhanced, the strict sealing and isolation measures are needed to be taken for the nuclear pollutants so as to avoid the further diffusion and leakage, and meanwhile, the treatment and disposal of nuclear waste are needed to be enhanced, and the safety and harmlessness of the nuclear pollutants are ensured, so that the concentration monitoring for the diffusion of the nuclear pollutant atmosphere channel is necessary.
However, conventional nuclear contaminant atmospheric channel diffusion forecast monitoring suffers from the following drawbacks:
the traditional nuclear pollutant atmospheric channel diffusion monitoring is single to monitor the real-time concentration of the nuclear pollutant in the atmosphere, the concentration of the nuclear pollutant in the subsequent atmosphere cannot be predicted, and the prevention requirement of people on the nuclear pollutant cannot be met.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a nuclear pollutant atmospheric channel diffusion forecasting system and method, which are used for solving the problems that the conventional nuclear pollutant atmospheric channel diffusion monitoring provided in the background art is single in monitoring the real-time concentration of the nuclear pollutant in the atmosphere, the concentration of the nuclear pollutant in the subsequent atmosphere cannot be forecasted, and the prevention requirement of people on the nuclear pollutant cannot be met.
In order to achieve the above purpose, the present invention provides the following technical solutions: the utility model provides a nuclear pollutant atmospheric channel diffusion forecast system, includes the forecast system body, the forecast system body includes webpage end platform, calculating end platform, VUEjs frame platform, WEB map platform, deployment operation platform, atmosphere data platform and diffusion forecast platform, including webpage end platform demonstrates the forecast result, calculating end platform handles data model, VUEjs frame platform carries out the preliminary treatment to data, WEB map platform realizes the demonstration of WEB map through the form of calling the world map WEB API, deployment operation platform realizes the friendly demonstration and customization integrated control of all products at the webpage end, atmosphere data platform carries out the collection processing to the atmospheric related data, diffusion forecast platform carries out the forecast to nuclear pollutant in the atmosphere diffusion condition, atmosphere data platform includes atmosphere data set analysis module, atmosphere history observation data module and atmosphere data processing management module, atmosphere data set analysis module collects the atmosphere data set that the present is general in the world, and level resolution is 2.5×2.5 degree, and the main collection of level is divided into 2.5 degree: the system comprises a wind field, air pressure, precipitation and temperature data, wherein the atmospheric history observation data module is used for collecting various data in various modes, the various modes are network downloading, document data electronization and development of certain quality control, a corresponding data set is finally formed and used for forecasting the work of subsystem initialization verification, and the atmospheric data processing management module is used for controlling the quality of the collected data and carrying out standardized processing on the data to form the data set.
As a preferable technical scheme of the invention, the webpage end platform comprises a man-machine interaction customizing module, an integrated display module and an observation display module.
As a preferable technical scheme of the invention, the computing end platform comprises a nuclear pollution information customizing module, a data format standardization module, a model computing module, a model processing module and a real-time monitoring module.
As a preferable technical scheme of the invention, the nuclear pollution information customizing module comprises a nuclear substance type unit, a nuclear substance total amount unit, a nuclear substance point source unit, a nuclear substance line source unit, a nuclear substance surface source unit, a nuclear substance discharge time unit, a nuclear substance discharge height unit and a forecast aging unit.
As a preferable technical scheme of the invention, the model processing module comprises a variable extraction unit, a track analysis unit and a graphical making unit.
As a preferable technical scheme of the invention, the VUEjs frame platform comprises a front-end and rear-end separation main frame module, a front-end framework design module, an MVV framework module and a bidirectional data binding module.
As a preferable technical scheme of the invention, the deployment operation platform comprises an operating system, a cluster management tool, a Python package management tool, a programming tool, a Python third-party dependency library, a Web server, a Web browser, a data processing server and a PC client.
As a preferable technical scheme of the invention, the diffusion forecasting platform comprises a pollutant transportation module, a weather forecasting module, a mode construction module and a model simulation module.
The invention discloses a nuclear pollutant atmospheric channel diffusion forecasting method, which comprises the following steps:
step one, data collection: collecting diffusion data of the nuclear polluted atmosphere channel from each path;
step two, data preprocessing: preprocessing two kinds of global atmospheric numerical value forecast products respectively;
step three, model mode processing: after finishing the data preprocessing, according to the nuclear pollution information input by the front end, calling the atmospheric nuclear diffusion history nuclear pollution observation information corresponding to the rear end to realize the calculation of a numerical forecasting model and the mode post-processing;
step four, front-end and back-end interaction: the front end sends a command to the back end in a mouse clicking mode, after the back end of the system receives the command sent by the front end, corresponding operation is automatically executed, a processed result is returned to the front end, and the front end of the system processes and manufactures various nuclear diffusion and nuclear tracing products at the webpage end according to the received data;
step five, data input: accident related data such as occurrence position, type and leakage total amount are input, and traceability related data such as discovery position and type are input;
step six, mode simulation: simulating an atmospheric radioactive substance transportation mode;
step seven, predicting the result: simulating the diffusion path and concentration of nuclear substances in the atmosphere after the accident occurs and tracing the accident occurrence position;
step eight, visual display: and visually displaying the result of the prediction.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
1. constructing a nuclear pollutant atmospheric diffusion model, and developing an atmospheric nuclear pollutant diffusion model by adopting a Lagrange particle diffusion-based model;
2. nuclear pollutant atmospheric diffusion forecasting module: based on the meteorological field predicted by the T799 atmospheric numerical value prediction system and the constructed atmospheric nuclear pollutant diffusion model, three-dimensional diffusion track prediction, concentration prediction and sedimentation prediction of air masses at different heights are realized, the type of nuclear pollutant, the height and concentration of the air masses can be set according to the requirements of users, the track, concentration and sedimentation process prediction of the nuclear pollutant are realized, and graded warning can be realized according to the predicted concentration and range.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of the structure of the forecasting system body of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of a web platform according to the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of a computing platform according to the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram of a configuration of a nuclear pollution information customization module according to the present invention;
FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram of a model processing module according to the present invention;
FIG. 6 is a schematic diagram of the structure of a VUEjs frame platform of the present invention;
FIG. 7 is a schematic view of the front-rear end separation assembly module of the present invention;
FIG. 8 is a schematic diagram of a front end architecture design module according to the present invention;
FIG. 9 is a schematic diagram of an MVV architecture module according to the present invention;
FIG. 10 is a schematic diagram of the deployment platform of the present invention;
FIG. 11 is a schematic view of the structure of the air data platform according to the present invention;
FIG. 12 is a schematic view of a diffusion prediction platform according to the present invention;
FIG. 13 is a schematic diagram of a modular construction module according to the present invention;
FIG. 14 is a flow chart of the present invention;
FIG. 15 is a schematic view of a front-to-rear end split cradle module of the present invention;
FIG. 16 is a schematic diagram of a front end architecture design module of the present invention;
FIG. 17 is a schematic diagram of a calculated grid concentration field of the present invention;
FIG. 18 is a technical roadmap of the atmospheric nuclear diffusion model of the invention.
In the figure: 1. a forecasting system body; 2. a web page end platform; 21. a man-machine interaction customizing module; 22. an integrated display module; 23. an observation display module; 3. a computing end platform; 31. a nuclear pollution information customizing module; 311. a nuclear material type unit; 312. a nuclear substance total amount unit; 313. a nuclear material point source unit; 314. a nuclear material line source unit; 315. a nuclear material non-point source unit; 316. a nuclear material discharge time unit; 317. a nuclear material discharge height unit; 318. a forecast aging unit; 32. a data format specification module; 33. a model calculation module; 34. a model processing module; 341. a variable extraction unit; 342. a trajectory analysis unit; 343. a patterning unit; 35. a real-time monitoring module; 4. VUEjs framework platform; 41. separating the front end and the rear end of the main frame module; 411. an access unit; 412. a front end UI interaction unit; 413. a back end unit; 414. a data layer unit; 415. a database unit; 416. an infrastructure unit; 42. the front end framework design module; 421. a browser unit; 422. a JS module unit; 423. a weback unit; 424. a page container unit; 425. a util unit; 426. a service unit; 427. a network unit; 428. an API unit; 43. an MVV architecture module; 431. a Model unit; 432. a View unit; 433. a View Model unit; 44. a bidirectional data binding module; 5. a WEB map platform; 6. deploying an operation platform; 61. an operating system; 62. cluster management tools; 63. python package management tools; 64. a programming tool; 65. python third party dependency library; 66. a Web server; 67. a Web browser; 68. a data processing server; 69. a PC client; 7. an atmospheric data platform; 71. an atmospheric data set analysis module; 72. an atmospheric history observation data module; 73. an atmospheric data processing management module; 8. a diffusion forecasting platform; 81. a contaminant transport module; 82. a weather forecast module; 83. a mode construction module; 831. a lagrangian particle diffusion unit; 832. a FLEXPART unit; 833. a global spectrum unit; 84. and a model simulation module.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the embodiments of the present invention, and it is apparent that the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present invention, not all embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be made by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the invention without making any inventive effort, are intended to be within the scope of the invention.
Referring to fig. 1-18, the invention provides a nuclear pollutant atmospheric channel diffusion prediction system, which comprises a prediction system body 1, wherein the prediction system body 1 comprises a webpage end platform 2, a computing end platform 3, a VUEjs frame platform 4, a WEB map platform 5, a deployment operation platform 6, an atmospheric data platform 7 and a diffusion prediction platform 8, the prediction result is displayed by the webpage end platform 2, the computing end platform 3 processes a data model, the VUEjs frame platform 4 preprocesses data, the WEB map platform 5 realizes the display of a WEB map in a form of calling a daily map WEB API, the deployment operation platform 6 realizes the friendly display and customized integrated control of all products at the webpage end, the atmospheric data platform 7 collects and processes atmospheric data, the diffusion prediction platform 8 predicts the diffusion condition of nuclear pollutants in the atmosphere, the atmospheric data platform 7 comprises an atmospheric data set analysis module 71, an atmospheric history data module 72 and an atmospheric data processing management module 73, an atmospheric data general analysis module 71 collects the atmospheric data on the current national level of analysis, and the atmospheric data general analysis module 71 is 2.5×2.5, and the level of the atmospheric analysis is mainly analyzed by 2.5×2: the air field, air pressure, precipitation and temperature data, the atmospheric history observation data module 72 is used for collecting various data through various modes of network downloading and document data electronization, developing certain quality control, finally forming a corresponding data set for the work of initializing and verifying the forecasting subsystem, and the atmospheric data processing management module 73 is used for controlling the quality of the collected data and carrying out standardized processing on the data to form the data set.
The webpage end platform 2 comprises a man-machine interaction customizing module 21, an integrated display module 22 and an observation display module 23, wherein the man-machine interaction customizing module 21 customizes the pattern display function of the related products of the color filling map and the track map at the front end through the man-machine interaction pollution information customizing function, the customization contains the nuclear substance type, the total nuclear substance amount, the point source, the line source, the surface source, the discharge time, the discharge height and the forecast aging information, the integrated display module 22 realizes the display function of the nuclear pollution observation information through calling the picture data file processed at the rear end and the data file in the JSON format, and realizes the seamless splicing and stepless zooming functions of the pattern tiles on the map base map at the front end.
The computing end platform 3 comprises a nuclear pollution information customizing module 31, a data format normalizing module 32, a model computing module 33, a model processing module 34 and a real-time monitoring module 35, wherein the nuclear pollution information customizing module 31 is used for customizing and containing nuclear substance types, total nuclear substance amount, point sources, line sources, surface sources, discharge time, discharge height and forecast aging information, the data format normalizing module 32 is used for normalizing and summarizing atmospheric environment data according to the format of input data of a numerical forecast model, the model computing module 33 is used for realizing an atmospheric nuclear pollution diffusion model computing function, the model processing module 34 is used for realizing variable extraction, track analysis and graphical manufacturing functions of the numerical model data, and the real-time monitoring module 35 is used for realizing a full-flow monitoring traceable function of atmospheric nuclear pollution diffusion.
The nuclear pollution information customizing module 31 includes a nuclear material type unit 311, a total nuclear material amount unit 312, a nuclear material point source unit 313, a nuclear material source unit 314, a nuclear material surface source unit 315, a nuclear material discharge time unit 316, a nuclear material discharge height unit 317, and a forecast aging unit 318, the nuclear material type unit 311 tailors the type of nuclear material according to actual demand, the total nuclear material amount unit 312 tailors the total nuclear material amount according to actual demand, the nuclear material point source unit 313 tailors the nuclear material point source according to actual demand, the nuclear material source unit 314 tailors the nuclear material source according to actual demand, the nuclear material surface source unit 315 tailors the nuclear material surface source according to actual demand, the nuclear material discharge time unit 316 tailors the nuclear material discharge time according to actual demand, the nuclear material discharge height unit 317 tailors the nuclear material discharge height according to actual demand, and the forecast aging unit 318 tailors the forecast aging according to actual demand.
The model processing module 34 includes a variable extraction unit 341, a track analysis unit 342, and a graphical fabrication unit 343, where the variable extraction unit 341 performs variable extraction on the numerical model data, the track analysis unit 342 performs track analysis on the numerical model data, and the graphical fabrication unit 343 performs graphical fabrication on the numerical model data.
The VUEjs framework platform 4 includes a front-end and back-end split total frame module 41, a front-end framework design module 42, an MVV framework module 43, and a bidirectional data binding module 44, the front-end and back-end split total frame module 41, the front-end framework design module 42, the MVV framework module 43, and the bidirectional data binding module 44, the front-end and back-end split total frame module 41 including an access 411, a front-end UI interaction unit 412, a back-end unit 413, a data layer unit 414, a database unit 415, and an infrastructure unit 416, the front-end framework design module 42 including a browser unit 421, a JS module unit 422, a weback unit 423, a page container unit 424, a util unit 425, a service unit 426, a network unit 427, and an API unit 428, the MVV framework module 43 including a Model unit 431, a View unit 432, and a View Model unit 433, the Model unit 431 representing a data Model, and defining service logic for data modification and operation in the Model; view unit 432 represents the UI component responsible for converting the data Model into UI presentations, and View Model unit 433 is an object that synchronizes views and models.
The deployment operation platform 6 comprises an operating system 61, a cluster management tool 62, a Python package management tool 63, a programming tool 64, a Python third party dependency library 65, a Web server 66, a Web browser 67, a data processing server 68 and a PC client 69, wherein the operating system 61 is specifically a Redhat operating system, the model number is V7.3, the cluster management tool 62 is specifically a Redhat operating system, the model number is V7.3, the Python package management tool 63 is specifically aconda, the model number is V2020.02, and the programming tool 64 is specifically Python
Model V3.7.6, NCL model v6.5.0 and gfortran model V4.8.5, python third party dependency library 65 specifically Basemap model V1.1.0, matplotlib model V3.2.1, numpy model V1.18.1, netCDF4 model V1.5.3, cmaps model V1.0.5, mpi4py model V3.0.2, scpcline model V0.2, web server 66 specifically 2 cpu: intel Xeon 5117, 28 cores (main frequency 2.0 GHz), total capacity of magnetic disk not less than 30TB, internal memory not less than 128gb, web browser 67 specifically being chrome model V5.1.3.14, data processing server 68 specifically being 2 x cpu: intel Xeon 5117, 28 cores (main frequency 2.0 GHz), total capacity of magnetic disk not less than 30TB, memory not less than 128gb, pc client 69 specifically being CPU: i7-6700, memory: 16GB, hard disk: 2TB, display: associative thinkvision23.1 inch displays.
The diffusion prediction platform 8 comprises a pollutant transportation module 81, a weather prediction module 82, a mode construction module 83 and a model simulation module 84, wherein the pollutant transportation module 81 forms simulation and prediction work for nuclear pollutant transportation in the atmosphere by constructing an atmospheric nuclear pollutant transportation mode, and the atmospheric nuclear pollutant sedimentation data is used as an input field of the ocean nuclear pollutant transportation mode, and the weather field predicted by the weather prediction module 82 weather prediction system is such as: the mode construction module 83 develops a three-dimensional diffusion track prediction module of air mass at different heights, based on a Lagrange smoke mass diffusion model, and considers the physical processes of nuclear pollutant decay and wet and dry sedimentation, the model simulation module 84 constructs a prediction model of the atmospheric diffusion concentration and sedimentation of the nuclear pollutant, the mode construction module 83 comprises a Lagrange particle diffusion unit 831, a FLEXPART unit 832 and a global spectrum unit 833, the Lagrange particle diffusion unit 831 achieves the diffusion simulation of the nuclear pollutant in the atmosphere by tracking the motion process of a large number of particles, is not limited by uniform and steady assumptions and terrains, processes the effect of advection and turbulence, accurately describes the detailed change characteristics of the nuclear pollutant, the FLEXPART unit 832 characterizes the diffusion, transmission, attenuation and wet and dry sedimentation processes of the tracer in the atmosphere by calculating the track of the particles released by a discharge source, the particle emission source is a point, line, surface or volume source, the mode supports forward track and backward track calculation, the forward track simulates the change of a released object along with time, the delivery and diffusion condition along with weather conditions after the release of the released object from a source area is described, a nuclear pollutant transmission and diffusion track is obtained, the nuclear pollutant transmission and diffusion track is commonly used for judging the evolution condition of pollutants such as leakage of atmospheric pollutants after special conditions occur, the calculation of the backward track determines the distribution or residence time of a potential source area contributing to a target point or an area, a global spectrum unit 833, forecast variables are defined as the logarithm of horizontal wind, temperature, specific humidity and ground air pressure, a control equation set adopts a U-V form momentum equation, a thermodynamic equation, a continuous equation, a state equation and a water vapor equation, one effective way for improving the forecast accuracy of a numerical weather forecast mode is to improve the forecast resolution, the basic prediction variable is unfolded by adopting spherical harmonic function on the spherical surface, the spectrum cutting mode is triangular cutting, the maximum cutting wave number is 799, the grid point distribution of the physical space adopts a linear simplified Gaussian grid point scheme, and the horizontal grid distance of the grid points is about 25 km.
The invention discloses a nuclear pollutant atmospheric channel diffusion forecasting method, which comprises the following steps:
step one, data collection: collecting diffusion data of the nuclear polluted atmosphere channel from each path;
step two, data preprocessing: preprocessing two kinds of global atmospheric numerical value forecast products respectively;
step three, model mode processing: after finishing the data preprocessing, according to the nuclear pollution information input by the front end, calling the atmospheric nuclear diffusion history nuclear pollution observation information corresponding to the rear end to realize the calculation of a numerical forecasting model and the mode post-processing;
step four, front-end and back-end interaction: the front end sends a command to the back end in a mouse clicking mode, after the back end of the system receives the command sent by the front end, corresponding operation is automatically executed, a processed result is returned to the front end, and the front end of the system processes and manufactures various nuclear diffusion and nuclear tracing products at the webpage end according to the received data;
step five, data input: accident related data such as occurrence position, type and leakage total amount are input, and traceability related data such as discovery position and type are input;
step six, mode simulation: simulating an atmospheric radioactive substance transportation mode;
step seven, predicting the result: simulating the diffusion path and concentration of nuclear substances in the atmosphere after the accident occurs and tracing the accident occurrence position;
step eight, visual display: and visually displaying the result of the prediction.
The invention provides a global weather situation forecast by a global atmospheric numerical forecast mode, which comprises providing background field data and element forecast products of height, temperature, humidity and wind field on a pressure surface of a future 10-day standard for a global weather data four-dimensional change assimilation subsystem, providing an atmospheric driving field, background field and side boundary information for a global marine environment numerical forecast subsystem and a regional sea-air coupling numerical forecast subsystem, providing input data for a numerical forecast product assurance application subsystem and a data support and product distribution subsystem, adopting a global spectrum mode, wherein a forecast variable is defined as a horizontal wind, temperature, specific humidity and ground air pressure logarithm, a control equation set adopts a U-V form equation, a thermodynamic equation, a continuous equation, a state equation and a water vapor equation, one effective way for improving the accuracy of the numerical weather forecast mode is to improve the mode resolution, a basic forecast variable adopts a spherical harmonic function to be unfolded, a spectrum cut-off mode is a triangle wave number of 799, the grid point distribution of a physical space adopts a reduced grid point, and a horizontal grid point of the system is about 25 kilowatt-hour, and the performance of the system is about a thousand-meter range: global; traffic pattern: global atmospheric number forecasting model YHGSMTL799L91; forecasting aging: for 10 days; mode resolution: the horizontal grid spacing is 25 km; vertical layering 91 layers from ground to mode layer top (0.01 hPa, about 80 km), forecast product includes: model surface forecasting products of spectral coefficient form vorticity, divergence, temperature, potential height, relative humidity and vertical speed of the maximum truncated wave number 799 on 91 model surfaces; the horizontal grid spacing is 0.25 degrees x 0.25 degrees, the ground air pressure, the ground temperature, the sea level air pressure, the large-scale precipitation, the convection precipitation, the total precipitation, the U-shaped wind with the height of 10 meters, the V-shaped wind with the height of 10 meters, the height temperature of 2 meters, the specific humidity of 2 meters, the evaporation, the ground latent heat flux, the ground heat sensing flux, the downward short wave radiation and the downward long wave radiation are all single-layer prediction products on the uniform warp and weft grids; 26 standard pressed surfaces, a plurality of standard layer forecast products with the horizontal resolution of 0.25 degree x 0.25 degree, such as vorticity, divergence, potential height, temperature, specific humidity, relative humidity, U-wind, V-wind, vertical speed, cloud water, layered cloud quantity and cloud ice water content on uniform longitude and latitude grids, the project is used for obtaining partial forecast products of a global atmosphere numerical forecast system according to requirements, the project depends on the forecast result of the global atmosphere numerical forecast system T799 and is based on the atmospheric channel mode of the constructed nuclear pollutants, so as to form atmospheric transport forecast of the nuclear pollutants leaked into the atmosphere, under the control of a system integration and a business operation subsystem, a user inputs the initial accident position, the type and dosage (cesium-137, strontium-90, the main nuclear pollution accident products of iodine-131) and the initial accident time through the interface of the B/S architecture, the system is simultaneously connected with the forecasting result of the global atmospheric numerical forecasting system, such as wind field, temperature and precipitation, starts to operate the whole atmospheric nuclear pollutant transportation forecasting system, and after the system operation is completed, the formed forecasting result data set is led into the product manufacturing, integration and business subsystem to complete the forecasting of nuclear pollutant transportation in the atmosphere, the result can give out the radiation concentration of the nuclear pollutant along with the transportation process of the atmosphere on the transportation path so as to correspond to the corresponding nuclear radiation dose, and according to the atmospheric nuclear pollutant transportation result predicted by the subsystem, the nuclear pollutant grading early warning area division is given out, and the visible subsystem is connected for display.
Although the present invention has been described with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it will be apparent to those skilled in the art that modifications may be made to the embodiments described, or equivalents may be substituted for elements thereof, and any modifications, equivalents, improvements and changes may be made without departing from the spirit and principles of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A nuclear pollutant atmospheric channel diffusion prediction system, comprising a prediction system body (1), characterized in that: the prediction system body (1) comprises a webpage end platform (2), a computing end platform (3), a VUEjs frame platform (4), a WEB map platform (5), a deployment operation platform (6), an atmosphere data platform (7) and a diffusion prediction platform (8), wherein the prediction system body (2) displays a prediction result, the computing end platform (3) processes a data model, the VUEjs frame platform (4) preprocesses data, the WEB map platform (5) realizes the display of a WEB map in a form of calling a daily map WEB API, the deployment operation platform (6) realizes friendly display and customized integrated control of all products at the webpage end, the atmosphere data platform (7) collects and processes atmosphere related data, the diffusion prediction platform (8) predicts the diffusion condition of nuclear pollutants in the atmosphere, the atmosphere data platform (7) comprises an atmosphere data set analysis module (71), an atmosphere history data processing management module (73) and an atmosphere data processing management module (73), and the atmosphere data set is a data analysis module (71) which collects the atmospheric analysis data at the level of the atmospheric analysis module (2.5). The system comprises a wind field, air pressure, precipitation and temperature data, wherein an atmosphere history observation data module (72) collects various data in various modes, the modes are network downloading, document data electronization and development of certain quality control, a corresponding data set is finally formed and used for forecasting the work of subsystem initialization verification, and an atmosphere data processing management module (73) performs quality control on the collected data and performs standardized processing on the data to form the data set.
2. A nuclear contaminant atmospheric channel diffusion prediction system according to claim 1, wherein: the webpage end platform (2) comprises a man-machine interaction customizing module (21), an integrated display module (22) and an observation display module (23), wherein the man-machine interaction customizing module (21) is used for customizing the graph display function of a product at the front end through man-machine interaction pollution information, the graph display function of a color filling graph and a trace graph is realized, the observation display module (23) is used for realizing the display function of the nuclear pollution observation information through invoking a picture data file and a JSON format data file which are processed at the rear end, wherein the picture data file is integrated with the integrated display module (22).
3. A nuclear contaminant atmospheric channel diffusion prediction system according to claim 1, wherein: the computing terminal platform (3) comprises a nuclear pollution information customizing module (31), a data format normalizing module (32), a model computing module (33), a model processing module (34) and a real-time monitoring module (35), wherein the nuclear pollution information customizing module (31) is used for customizing information containing nuclear substance types, total nuclear substance amount, point sources, line sources, surface sources, emission time, emission height and forecast aging, the data format normalizing module (32) is used for normalizing atmospheric environment data according to the format of input data of a numerical forecast model, the model computing module (33) is used for realizing a calculation function of an atmospheric nuclear pollution diffusion model, the model processing module (34) is used for realizing variable extraction, track analysis and graphical manufacturing functions of the numerical model data, and the real-time monitoring module (35) is used for realizing a full-flow monitoring traceable function of atmospheric nuclear pollution diffusion.
4. A nuclear contaminant atmospheric channel diffusion prediction system according to claim 3, wherein: the nuclear pollution information customizing module (31) comprises a nuclear substance type unit (311), a total nuclear substance amount unit (312), a nuclear substance point source unit (313), a nuclear substance source unit (314), a nuclear substance surface source unit (315), a nuclear substance discharge time unit (316), a nuclear substance discharge height unit (317) and a forecast aging unit (318), wherein the nuclear substance type unit (311) is used for customizing the type of the nuclear substance according to actual demands, the total nuclear substance amount unit (312) is used for customizing the total nuclear substance amount according to actual demands, the nuclear substance point source unit (313) is used for customizing the nuclear substance point source according to actual demands, the nuclear substance surface source unit (314) is used for customizing the nuclear substance surface source according to actual demands, the nuclear substance discharge time unit (316) is used for customizing the nuclear substance discharge time according to actual demands, the nuclear substance discharge height unit (317) is used for customizing the nuclear substance discharge height according to actual demands, and the forecast aging unit (318) is used for customizing the forecast aging according to actual demands.
5. A nuclear contaminant atmospheric channel diffusion prediction system according to claim 3, wherein: the model processing module (34) comprises a variable extraction unit (341), a track analysis unit (342) and a graphical making unit (343), wherein the variable extraction unit (341) is used for extracting variables of the numerical model data, the track analysis unit (342) is used for analyzing tracks of the numerical model data, and the graphical making unit (343) is used for graphically making the numerical model data.
6. A nuclear contaminant atmospheric channel diffusion prediction system according to claim 1, wherein: the VUEjs framework platform (4) comprises a front-end and back-end split total frame module (41), a front-end framework design module (42), an MVV framework module (43) and a bidirectional data binding module (44), wherein the front-end and back-end split total frame module (41), the front-end framework design module (42), the MVV framework module (43) and the bidirectional data binding module (44), the front-end and back-end split total frame module (41) comprises an access (411), a front-end UI interaction unit (412), a back-end unit (413), a data layer unit (414), a database unit (415) and an infrastructure unit (416), the front-end framework design module (42) comprises a browser unit (421), a JS module unit (422), a weback unit (423), a page container unit (424), a util unit (425), a service unit (426), a work unit (427) and an API unit (428), and the MVV framework module (43) comprises a Model unit (431), a View unit (432) and a View Model unit (433), and the Model unit also defines a logical Model operation data in the Model and the data; the View unit (432) represents the UI component responsible for converting the data Model into UI presentation, and the View Model unit (433) is an object that synchronizes the View and Model.
7. A nuclear contaminant atmospheric channel diffusion prediction system according to claim 1, wherein: the deployment operation platform (6) comprises an operating system (61), a cluster management tool (62), a Python package management tool (63), a programming tool (64), a Python third-party dependency library (65), a Web server (66), a Web browser (67), a data processing server (68) and a PC client (69), wherein the operating system (61) is specifically a Redhat operating system, the model is V7.3, the cluster management tool (62) is specifically a Redhat operating system, the model is V7.3, the Python package management tool (63) is specifically Anconda, model V2020.02, the programming tool (64) is specifically Python model V3.7.6, NCL model V6.5.0 and gfortran model V4.8.5, the Python third party dependency library (65) is specifically Basemap model V1.1.0, matploglib model V3.2.1, numpy model V1.18.1, netCDF4 model V1.5.3, cmaps model V1.0.5, mpi4py model V3.0.2, scpct model V0.2, and the Web server (66) is specifically 2X CPU: intel Xeon 5117, 28 cores total, main frequency 2.0GHz, disk total capacity not less than 30TB, memory not less than 128GB, web browser (67) is specifically chrome model V5.1.3.14, and data processing server (68) is specifically 2×cpu: intel Xeon 5117, 28 cores total, main frequency 2.0GHz, total capacity of magnetic disk not less than 30TB, memory not less than 128GB, and the PC client (69) specifically comprises a CPU: i7-6700, memory: 16GB, hard disk: 2TB, display: associate with a 23.1 inch display.
8. A nuclear contaminant atmospheric channel diffusion prediction system according to claim 1, wherein: the diffusion prediction platform (8) comprises a pollutant transportation module (81), a weather prediction module (82), a mode construction module (83) and a model simulation module (84), wherein the pollutant transportation module (81) forms simulation and prediction work for nuclear pollutant transportation in the atmosphere by constructing an atmospheric nuclear pollutant transportation mode, and wherein atmospheric nuclear pollutant sedimentation data is used as an input field of the marine nuclear pollutant transportation mode, and the weather prediction module (82) predicts a weather field by a weather prediction system, such as: a wind field, air pressure, temperature and precipitation, wherein the mode construction module (83) develops a three-dimensional diffusion track prediction module of air masses at different heights, considers the physical processes of nuclear pollutant decay and dry and wet sedimentation based on a Lagrange smoke mass diffusion model, the model simulation module (84) constructs a nuclear pollutant atmospheric diffusion concentration and sedimentation prediction model, the mode construction module (83) comprises a Lagrange particle diffusion unit (831), a FLEXPART unit (832) and a global spectrum unit (833), the Lagrange particle diffusion unit (831) realizes diffusion simulation of nuclear pollutants in the atmosphere by tracking the movement process of a large number of particles, is not limited by uniform and steady assumptions and terrains, processes advection and turbulence effects, and accurately describes the detailed change characteristics of the nuclear pollutants, the FLEXPART unit (832) characterizes the process of diffusion, transmission, attenuation and dry and wet sedimentation of tracers in the atmosphere by calculating the track of particles released by a discharge source, which is a point, line, surface or volume source, the mode supports forward track and backward track calculation, the forward track simulates the change of the released trace with time, the transmission and diffusion condition of the released trace with meteorological conditions from a source area are characterized, the nuclear pollutant transmission and diffusion track is obtained, the nuclear pollutant transmission and diffusion track is commonly used for judging the evolution condition of the pollutant after the special condition occurs, such as leakage of atmospheric pollutant, the calculation of the backward track determines the potential source area distribution or residence time contributing to a target point or area, the global spectrum unit (833) predicts the variable defined as the level wind, temperature, specific humidity and ground air pressure logarithm, the control equation set adopts a U-V form momentum equation, a thermodynamic equation, a continuous equation, a state equation and a water vapor equation, one effective way for improving the accuracy of numerical weather forecast mode forecast is to improve the mode forecast resolution, a basic forecast variable is expanded on a spherical surface by adopting a spherical harmonic function, a spectrum cut-off mode is triangular cut-off, the maximum cut-off wave number is 799, the grid point distribution of a physical space adopts a linear simplified Gaussian grid point scheme, and the horizontal grid distance of grid points is about 25 km.
9. A method for forecasting the diffusion of an atmospheric channel using nuclear contaminants according to any one of claims 1 to 8, comprising the steps of:
step one, data collection: collecting diffusion data of the nuclear polluted atmosphere channel from each path;
step two, data preprocessing: preprocessing two kinds of global atmospheric numerical value forecast products respectively;
step three, model mode processing: after finishing the data preprocessing, according to the nuclear pollution information input by the front end, calling the atmospheric nuclear diffusion history nuclear pollution observation information corresponding to the rear end to realize the calculation of a numerical forecasting model and the mode post-processing;
step four, front-end and back-end interaction: the front end sends a command to the back end in a mouse clicking mode, after the back end of the system receives the command sent by the front end, corresponding operation is automatically executed, a processed result is returned to the front end, and the front end of the system processes and manufactures various nuclear diffusion and nuclear tracing products at the webpage end according to the received data;
step five, data input: accident related data such as occurrence position, type and leakage total amount are input, and traceability related data such as discovery position and type are input;
step six, mode simulation: simulating an atmospheric radioactive substance transportation mode;
step seven, predicting the result: simulating the diffusion path and concentration of nuclear substances in the atmosphere after the accident occurs and tracing the accident occurrence position;
step eight, visual display: and visually displaying the result of the prediction.
10. A method for forecasting the atmospheric channel diffusion of nuclear contaminants according to claim 9, characterized in that: each path in the first step is specifically historical typical hydrometeorological observation data, atmospheric nuclear substance observation data, atmospheric historical numerical simulation data and atmospheric numerical forecast data, and the specific process of preprocessing the first type of global atmospheric numerical forecast product in the second step is as follows: entering a linux server: 192.168.5.6; CD/home/HKS/HKS/NuclearNM/data_preprocessing/799; /799.sh 2023020112; cd/home/hks/DATA/DATA_NuclearNM/metdata/799/2023020112; ls views the generated plurality of variable files; the ls-l AVAILABLE file is checked to see whether the generated AVAILABLE file is normal, and the specific process of preprocessing the second class of global atmospheric numerical value forecast products in the second step is as follows: entering a linux server: 192.168.5.60; CD/home/HKS/HKS/NuclearNM/data_preprocessing/GFS; gfs.sh 2023020112; CD/home/hks/DATA/DATA_NuclearNM/metdata/GFS/2023020112; ls checks a plurality of generated variable files, ls-l AVAILABLE files, checks whether the generated AVAILABLE files are normal, and the specific process of the mode simulation in the step six is as follows: the nuclear pollutant entering the atmosphere is discretized into a large number of particles, each particle represents a certain nuclear pollutant, the particles are transported in the atmosphere under the action of a wind field and are deposited along with the vertical movement and precipitation of wind, the diffusion process of the nuclear pollutant can be embodied by the random movement of the particles and is connected into the attenuation process of the nuclear pollutant to form a whole nuclear pollutant atmospheric transport model, and the movement of the particles is controlled by the following equation:the formula can be solved by Euler integral or Dragon's Algorithm integral,/->For the particle position, u' is the random movement velocity caused by turbulence, < >>For the drift movement speed of the particles, the horizontal movement is at a speed of +.> Respectively representing three components of wind speed, wherein the data are output by a forecasting system in real time; the random motion caused by turbulent diffusion is typically calculated by the "random walk" technique, whose velocity can be expressed as: />K is a horizontal or vertical diffusion coefficient, which can be calculated from Smogorinsky's formula using wind speed, and each particle represents a gradual decay in nuclear contaminant concentration over time, using λC d To calculate, in order to solve the concentration of nuclear pollution, an atmospheric nuclear pollutant diffusion modelAt time T c Output concentration at->Is during a time period [ T ] c -ΔT c /2,T c +ΔT c /2]Calculating the mean value of the concentration, in order to solve the mean concentration, at c In delta T within a time period s Integration step size calculated for concentration, divided into n=Δt c /ΔT s Step number, then: />Where N is the number of particles contained in the grid cell, ΔT c And DeltaT s Are all input parameters, delta T s The smaller the number of integration steps is, the more accurate the average concentration is, and one grid cell is at time deltat s Concentration of->Is determined by the mass fraction of all particles in the grid cell and the grid cell volume V, i.e. +.>Wherein m is i Is the mass of the ith particle, f i Is the mass fraction of the ith particle relative to the grid cells, the mass fraction being determined in relation to the particle position and the longitudinal and latitudinal distance (Δx, Δy) of the output grid, the particle being centered in a shadow matrix of side length (Δx, Δy), typically the shadow area covers 4 grid cells, each grid receiving a portion of the particle mass, the mass fraction f of the particle to the grid cell in which it is located i The ratio of the shadow area covering the mesh to the whole shadow area.
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