CN116739392B - Multi-system rail transit emergency collaborative decision-making method and device based on physical elements - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention relates to the technical field of rail transit, in particular to a multi-system rail transit emergency collaborative decision-making method and device based on a physical element. According to the invention, through analyzing the characteristics of multi-system collaborative emergency treatment, the factors affecting multi-system operation by faults are subjected to deep analysis and quantitative calculation, and an emergency decision model is established by using a matter element analysis method in the extension science. The method fully considers the objectivity of the actual data and the subjectivity of expert experience, adopts the improved entropy weight method to determine the weight of the fault influence factors, can more reasonably and comprehensively reflect the importance of the fault influence factors, accurately evaluates the fault severity of the current system, has higher reliability, and is beneficial to the efficient handling of emergency events by a manager.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of rail transit, in particular to a multi-system rail transit emergency collaborative decision-making method and device based on a physical element.
Background
In recent years, with the continuous development of computer technology, artificial intelligence technology, prediction technology, and simulation technology, research on emergency decision methods guided by knowledge management (e.g., knowledge of existing cases, emergency plans, disaster prediction, etc.) has been widely conducted, and many representative research results have been obtained. Such as a transportation scheduling decision support system in an emergency situation, a rule-based reasoning emergency decision system, etc. For example, a multi-system-based emergency logistics decision support system, a dynamic multi-objective emergency rescue logistics decision support system framework, a maximum convention sub-category-based emergency decision knowledge matching method, and the like.
(1) At present, research results lack of emergency linkage modes and mechanism researches of various systems of rail transit, and emergency treatment pain points of the mutual influence of the multiple systems of the rail transit network are difficult to support. The existing research is developed from single-system emergency safety guarantee of urban rails, railways and the like, even single-line emergency safety guarantee, but the emergency linkage research on multi-system rail transit networked operation is very little. How to achieve efficient emergency handling efficiency through more unified coordinated emergency linkages has been a major problem facing large cities.
(2) The existing research is shallow in research on multi-specialized feedback decisions and multi-variety coordination cooperation in rail transit emergency linkage, the emergency decision comprehensiveness is poor, and the emergency treatment efficiency is limited. A large number of researches are developed for passenger flow organization, driving dispatching, station personnel allocation, emergency resource allocation and the like, and contents related to multiple professions and multiple working conditions are mainly solved by constructing a plan, however, the selection of an emergency strategy under an actual emergency event is always an optimal decision obtained by comprehensive optimization of multiple professions and multiple working conditions, and the accuracy and rapidity of global decision cannot be fundamentally improved by current research and technical means.
The urban ring urban mass multisystem rail transit system has the characteristic of cooperative integration, and when an emergency occurs in the operation management process, the whole body can be pulled to be sent, so that mass cooperation in the emergency process is particularly important. The students comprehensively use the group network planning method and the computer collaborative work technology, start from the practical requirement of the collaborative decision of the emergency group, develop the research of the group collaborative emergency decision pattern expression method according to the group-introduced group network planning technology, use the means of group decision, knowledge management and the like, and construct the research of the collaborative decision overall coordination method of the emergency group. Based on the model expression and overall coordination method of emergency group collaborative decision, the computer collaborative work among different emergency management departments is realized by utilizing a multimedia communication technology, and the emergency group collaborative man-machine interaction scheme decision system is designed by combining multimedia with an adjacent technology.
In the emergency response process, an effective emergency scheme, namely an emergency decision method based on case reasoning, is often required to be generated according to historical experience.
The thought of multi-objective emergency decision research is that in view of the multi-objective, multi-factor and complex and changeable evolution rules of emergency events, the application of the multi-objective decision theory and method to emergency decisions becomes a research hotspot formed recently.
Although remarkable results are achieved in the field of emergency decision research of emergency events, the feature research content of emergency decision of the emergency events is rich, only single features are researched, and common research among the features is lacking. Considerable progress is made in the aspects of evaluation and evaluation methods and emergency decision-making systems for emergency plans, but in the aspects of investigation of emergency plans, investigation of influences of faults on a multi-system rail transit system and investigation of emergency treatment schemes are in scattered states.
In summary, the current research and technical means cannot fundamentally improve the accuracy and rapidity of global decision, only the single feature is researched, and the common research among the features is lacking; the emergency plan is compiled and researched, and the influence research and emergency treatment plan research of faults on the multi-system rail transit system are in a scattered state.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the problems, the invention provides a multi-system rail transit emergency collaborative decision-making method and device based on a physical element.
A multi-system rail transit emergency collaborative decision-making method based on a physical element, comprising:
Collecting historical fault information of the multi-system rail transit, and quantifying fault factors affecting the multi-system operation according to the historical fault information; constructing a physical element for evaluating the severity of sudden faults of the multi-system rail transit system;
dividing the severity of the sudden fault into a plurality of grades based on quantized fault influence multi-system operation factors and physical elements for evaluating the severity of the sudden fault of the multi-system rail transit system, and calculating the comprehensive evaluation result of each fault influence factor and the severity relevance of the fault according to the relevance function on the extension set;
when the sudden fault occurs, the state data of each current influencing factor of the sudden fault is subjected to corresponding fault severity level according to the association degree; and corresponding current limiting measures are carried out according to the fault severity level.
Further, the quantifying the fault factor that affects the multi-system operation specifically includes:
according to whether the influence factors change with time and space and combining the business characteristics of multi-system rail transit operation, the influence factors are divided into multiple categories including time factors, space-time factors and space-time independent factors.
Further, the construction and evaluation of the physical elements of the severity of the sudden fault of the multi-system track traffic system specifically comprises the following steps:
Describing things by three elements of 'things names, characteristics and magnitudes', and forming basic units of ordered three elements, namely, the primitives; the primitive matrix of burst fault severity is expressed as:
wherein a is the number of sudden faults, b is the number of influencing factors, and R is a matter element for evaluating the severity of sudden faults of the multi-system track traffic system, whereinFor the ith failure to be evaluated, +.>F is +.>Is defined by the following steps: m is m ik For the ith fault corresponds to its fault influencing factor +.>Is of the value of M, M is M ik Is a whole of (a).
Further, the classifying the severity of the sudden fault into a plurality of grades specifically includes:
dividing the grade of the sudden fault severity of the multi-system track traffic system into y grades according to the fault severity grade to obtain the physical element；
；
Wherein T is j Is the firstA fault severity level; m is m jb Is f k Regarding T j Classical domain of M j Is the totality of the j-th failed classical domain; u (u) jb And v jb Respectively f k Upper and lower limits of the value;
according to the magnitude ranges of all levels of each fault influencing factor, a node domain matter element for evaluating the severity of the fault is formed，T p The system is the whole of the severity level of the sudden fault of the standard rail transit system in the material element system; m is m pb Is characterized by f k The range of values of (i.e. T) p Is a segment of the (c); m is M p Is the whole of the festival domain; the determined node domain object element matrix expression is as follows:
。
further, the calculating the degree of association between the result of the comprehensive evaluation of each fault influencing factor and the severity of the fault according to the association function on the extension set specifically includes: establishing a fault severity level matter element judgment association function, determining an influence factor weight coefficient, and comprehensively evaluating the sudden fault severity level of the multi-system rail transit system.
Further, the establishing the fault severity level objective judgment association function specifically includes:
adopting a correlation function in the extension science to perform correlation calculation on the proximity of the object to be evaluated and the classical domain object; the association function of the kth influencing factor of the sudden fault of the ith multi-system track traffic system with respect to the fault severity level class j is as follows:
；
in the method, in the process of the invention,respectively m ik And section classical domain m jk Domain m pk Is a closing speed of (2); wherein,
。
further, the determining the influence factor weight coefficient specifically includes:
an improved entropy weight method is adopted to determine the weight of each influence factor for evaluating the severity of the sudden fault of the multi-system track traffic system; judging the discrete degree of a certain influence factor by adopting an entropy value, wherein a data matrix is ，x ik The value of the influence factor of the sudden fault is a sudden fault quantity, and b is an influence factor quantity;
normalizing the influence factor data matrix X to obtain a standard matrix X 0 Standard matrix X 0 After correction, calculating by nine scales to obtain the weight of the influence factor kAccording to the weight->Calculating the weight of the influencing factor k>。
Further, the comprehensive evaluation of the severity of the sudden fault of the multi-system rail transit system specifically comprises the following steps:
multi-system track traffic system sudden fault severity evaluation material elementThe degree of association of (2) is:
；
according to the calculation result, obtaining the grade t with the maximum relevance with the fault severity degree, namely the to-be-evaluated object elementThe fault severity level is t.
Further, the performing a corresponding current limiting measure according to the fault severity level specifically includes:
the severity j of the fault consequences is classified into several classes, including catastrophic, critical and minor;
adopting primary current limiting measures to limit the current of a payment area in the station;
adopting a secondary current limiting measure to limit the current of a non-pay area in the station;
three-stage current limiting is adopted, and the current limiting measure is off-site current limiting;
adopting four-stage current limiting, wherein the current limiting measure is station sealing;
Determining an adjustment period for adjusting the running chart according to the fault influence time;
correlation function of kth influencing factors of sudden faults of i multi-system rail transit systems on fault severity level class jThe class j of the fault severity degree with the highest correlation is obtained, the influence factor k with higher class is obtained, and other corresponding treatment measures are adopted.
The utility model provides a emergent collaborative decision-making device of multisystem track traffic based on thing element, includes: the system comprises a quantization unit, a relevance calculating unit and an emergency measure unit;
the quantification unit is used for collecting historical fault information of the multi-system rail transit and quantifying fault factors affecting multi-system operation according to the historical fault information;
the association degree calculation unit is used for constructing a material element for evaluating the severity degree of the sudden fault of the multi-system rail transit system, dividing the severity degree of the sudden fault into a plurality of grades based on the quantized fault influence multi-system operation factors and the material element for evaluating the severity degree of the sudden fault of the multi-system rail transit system, and calculating the association degree of the comprehensive evaluation result of each fault influence factor and the severity degree of the fault according to the association function on the expandable set;
the emergency measure unit is used for obtaining the corresponding fault severity level according to the association degree of the state data of each current influence factor of the sudden fault when the sudden fault occurs; and corresponding current limiting measures are carried out according to the fault severity level.
An electronic device comprises a processor, a communication interface, a memory and a communication bus, wherein the processor, the communication interface and the memory are communicated with each other through the communication bus;
a memory for storing a computer program;
and the processor is used for realizing the multi-system rail transit emergency collaborative decision-making method based on the physical elements when executing the programs stored in the memory.
A computer readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program which when executed by a processor implements the multi-system rail transit emergency collaborative decision-making method based on primitives described above.
The invention has at least the following beneficial effects:
according to the invention, through analyzing the characteristics of multi-system collaborative emergency treatment, the factors affecting multi-system operation by faults are subjected to deep analysis and quantitative calculation, and an emergency decision model is established by using a matter element analysis method in the extension science. The method fully considers the objectivity of the actual data and the subjectivity of expert experience, adopts the improved entropy weight method to determine the weight of the fault influence factors, can more reasonably and comprehensively reflect the importance of the fault influence factors, accurately evaluates the fault severity of the current system, has higher reliability, and is beneficial to the efficient handling of emergency events by a manager.
The method has strong applicability, not only can make decisions on the emergency scheme, but also can analyze the level of each fault influence factor and find out the main influence factor of the sudden fault, thereby providing reasonable corrective measures in a targeted way and improving the operation level of regional rail transit.
Additional features and advantages of the invention will be set forth in the description which follows, and in part will be obvious from the description, or may be learned by practice of the invention. The objectives and other advantages of the invention may be realized and attained by the structure particularly pointed out in the written description and drawings.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions of the prior art, the following description will briefly explain the drawings used in the embodiments or the description of the prior art, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are some embodiments of the present invention, and other drawings can be obtained according to these drawings without inventive effort for a person skilled in the art.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a decision making method according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of a decision making device according to an embodiment of the invention.
Detailed Description
For the purpose of making the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention more apparent, the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is apparent that the described embodiments are some embodiments of the present invention, but not all embodiments of the present invention. All other embodiments, which can be made by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the invention without making any inventive effort, are intended to be within the scope of the invention.
The emergency treatment condition is inevitably brought about by people, technology, management or environment, and the emergency condition brings about propagation, spreading and hazard expansion due to continuous expansion of the scale of a rail transit network and diversified development of a rail transit system, so that larger social influence is caused. The emergency treatment level of the multi-system rail transit is improved to ensure the stable and reliable operation of the transit system, and the emergency treatment level becomes a key problem facing each large city. The stable operation of facility equipment is the basis of the safe and stable operation of a rail transit system, and the fault of the facility equipment has great influence on the operation.
Therefore, the invention provides a multi-system rail transit emergency collaborative decision-making method and device based on a physical element, and the method and device comprise the multi-system rail transit emergency collaborative decision-making method based on the physical element, the multi-system rail transit emergency collaborative decision-making device based on the physical element, electronic equipment and a computer readable storage medium.
The method fully considers the objectivity of the actual data and the subjectivity of expert experience, adopts the improved entropy weight method to determine the weight of the fault influence factors, can more reasonably and comprehensively reflect the importance of the fault influence factors, accurately evaluates the fault severity of the current system, has higher reliability, and is beneficial to the efficient handling of emergency events by a manager. Meanwhile, the method has strong applicability, not only can make a decision on an emergency scheme, but also can analyze the level of each fault influence factor and find out the main influence factor of the sudden fault, thereby providing reasonable corrective measures in a targeted way and improving the operation level of regional rail transit.
In a first aspect, as shown in fig. 1, the present invention provides a multi-system rail transit emergency collaborative decision-making method based on a physical element, the method includes:
collecting historical fault information of the multi-system rail transit, and quantifying fault factors affecting the multi-system operation according to the historical fault information; constructing a physical element for evaluating the severity of sudden faults of the multi-system rail transit system;
dividing the severity of the sudden fault into a plurality of grades based on quantized fault influence multi-system operation factors and physical elements for evaluating the severity of the sudden fault of the multi-system rail transit system, and calculating the comprehensive evaluation result of each fault influence factor and the severity relevance of the fault according to the relevance function on the extension set;
When the sudden fault occurs, the state data of each current influencing factor of the sudden fault is subjected to corresponding fault severity level according to the association degree; and corresponding current limiting measures are carried out according to the fault severity level.
In specific implementation, by analyzing the characteristics of multi-system collaborative emergency treatment, the factors affecting multi-system operation by faults are subjected to deep analysis and quantitative calculation, and an emergency decision model is established by using a matter element analysis method in the extension science. The method fully considers the objectivity of actual data and the subjectivity of expert experience, adopts an improved entropy weight method to determine the weight of the fault influence factors, can more reasonably and comprehensively reflect the importance of the fault influence factors, accurately evaluates the fault severity of the current system, has higher reliability, and is beneficial to the efficient handling of emergency events by a manager.
In this embodiment, the quantifying the fault factor that affects the multi-system operation specifically includes:
according to whether the influence factors change with time and space and combining the business characteristics of multi-system rail transit operation, the influence factors are divided into multiple categories including time factors, space-time factors and space-time independent factors.
In this embodiment, the building and evaluating the physical element of the severity of the sudden fault of the multi-system rail transit system specifically includes:
describing things by three elements of 'things names, characteristics and magnitudes', and forming basic units of ordered three elements, namely, the primitives; the primitive matrix of burst fault severity can be expressed as:
；
wherein a is the number of sudden faults, b is the number of influencing factors, and R is a matter element for evaluating the severity of sudden faults of the multi-system track traffic system, whereinFor the ith failure to be evaluated, +.>As the kth fault influencing factor: m is m ik For the ith fault corresponds to its fault influencing factor +.>Is a value of (a).
In this embodiment, the classifying the severity of the sudden failure into several levels specifically includes:
dividing the grade of sudden fault severity of the multi-system rail transit system into y grades according to the grade of fault severity, and obtaining classical primitives of the research object in the primitive system；
；
Wherein T is j Is the firstA fault severity level; m is m jb Is f k Regarding T j Classical domain of u jb And v jb Respectively f k Upper and lower limits of the value;
on the basis of determining a classical domain matrix, according to the magnitude ranges of all levels of each fault influence factor, a node domain matter element for evaluating the severity of the fault is formed ，T p M is the whole of the severity level of sudden fault of the standard rail transit system in the material element system pb Is characterized by f k The range of values of (i.e. T) p Is a segment of the (c); the determined node domain object element matrix expression is as follows:
。
in this embodiment, the calculating, according to the association function on the extension set, the degree of association between the result of the comprehensive evaluation of each fault influencing factor and the severity of the fault specifically includes: establishing a fault severity level matter element judgment association function, determining an influence factor weight coefficient, and comprehensively evaluating the sudden fault severity level of the multi-system rail transit system.
In this embodiment, the establishing a fault severity level criterion correlation function specifically includes:
and adopting a correlation function in the extension science to calculate the correlation between the proximity of the object to be evaluated and the classical domain object. The association function of the kth influencing factor of the sudden fault of the ith multi-system track traffic system with respect to the fault severity level class j is as follows:
；
in the method, in the process of the invention,respectively m ik And interval m jk 、m pk Is a closing speed of (2); wherein,
。
in this embodiment, the determining the weight coefficient of the influencing factor specifically includes:
an improved entropy weight method is adopted to determine the weight of each influence factor for evaluating the severity of the sudden fault of the multi-system track traffic system; firstly, the degree of dispersion of a certain influence factor is judged by using the entropy value, and the larger the degree of dispersion of the influence factor is, the larger the influence of the influence factor on the comprehensive evaluation is. The data matrix is ，x ik And a is the number of the sudden faults, and b is the number of the influencing factors.
Normalizing the influence factor data matrix X to obtain a standard matrix X 0 Wherein:
/>；
calculating entropy value H under influence factor k j ；
；
When x is ik When=0, then lnx ik Nonsensical. So that it is necessary to use the conventional matrix X 0 Correcting;
；
calculating entropy weight w of influence factor k k ；
；
Wherein, and->；
The importance of the influence factors is compared with each other by a 9 scale method to construct a judgment matrix, and the weight of the influence factor k is obtained through consistency test of the single-level sequence, the total-level sequence and the corresponding sequence；
Calculating the weight of the influence factor k by using the weights obtained by the objective method and the subjective method；
。
In this embodiment, the comprehensive evaluation of the severity of the sudden fault of the multi-system rail transit system specifically includes:
multi-system track traffic system sudden fault severity evaluation material elementThe degree of association of (2) is:
；
according to the calculation result, the object T to be evaluated can be known i The fault severity level is t.
In this embodiment, the performing the corresponding current limiting measure according to the fault severity level specifically includes:
the severity j of the fault consequences is classified into several classes, including catastrophic, critical and mild. Thus, failure in the present invention The severity of the consequences is classified as catastrophic, critical, mild;
adopting primary current limiting measures to limit the current of a payment area in the station;
adopting a secondary current limiting measure to limit the current of a non-pay area in the station;
three-stage current limiting is adopted, and the current limiting measure is off-site current limiting;
adopting four-stage current limiting, wherein the current limiting measure is station sealing;
determining an adjustment period for adjusting the running chart according to the fault influence time;
correlation function of kth influencing factors of sudden faults of i multi-system rail transit systems on fault severity level class jThe obtained fault severity level class j with highest correlation with the fault severity level class j is used for obtaining an influence factor k with higher level, further analyzing the reason that the influence factor k is in a high position, and taking other corresponding treatment measures.
In a second aspect, as shown in fig. 2, the present invention provides a multi-system rail transit emergency collaborative decision-making device based on a physical element, including: the system comprises a quantization unit, a relevance calculating unit and an emergency measure unit;
the quantification unit is used for collecting historical fault information of the multi-system rail transit and quantifying fault factors affecting multi-system operation according to the historical fault information;
the association degree calculation unit is used for constructing a material element for evaluating the severity degree of the sudden fault of the multi-system rail transit system, dividing the severity degree of the sudden fault into a plurality of grades based on the quantized fault influence multi-system operation factors and the material element for evaluating the severity degree of the sudden fault of the multi-system rail transit system, and calculating the association degree of the comprehensive evaluation result of each fault influence factor and the severity degree of the fault according to the association function on the expandable set;
The emergency measure unit is used for obtaining the corresponding fault severity level according to the association degree of the state data of each current influence factor of the sudden fault when the sudden fault occurs; and corresponding current limiting measures are carried out according to the fault severity level.
In specific implementation, the implementation processes of the multi-system rail transit emergency cooperative decision device based on the physical elements and the multi-system rail transit emergency cooperative decision method based on the physical elements are in one-to-one correspondence, and are not repeated herein.
In a third aspect, the present invention provides an electronic device, including a processor, a communication interface, a memory, and a communication bus, where the processor, the communication interface, and the memory complete communication with each other through the communication bus;
a memory for storing a computer program;
and the processor is used for realizing the multi-system rail transit emergency collaborative decision-making method based on the physical element when executing the program stored in the memory.
In a fourth aspect, the present invention provides a computer readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, where the computer program, when executed by a processor, implements the above-mentioned multi-system rail transit emergency collaborative decision-making method based on the physical element.
The computer-readable storage medium may be embodied in the apparatus/means described in the above embodiments; or may exist alone without being assembled into the apparatus/device. The computer-readable storage medium carries one or more programs which, when executed, implement methods in accordance with embodiments of the present disclosure.
According to embodiments of the present disclosure, the computer-readable storage medium may be a non-volatile computer-readable storage medium, which may include, for example, but is not limited to: a portable computer diskette, a hard disk, a Random Access Memory (RAM), a read-only memory (ROM), an erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or flash memory), a portable compact disc read-only memory (CD-ROM), an optical storage device, a magnetic storage device, or any suitable combination of the foregoing. In the context of this disclosure, a computer-readable storage medium may be any tangible medium that can contain, or store a program for use by or in connection with an instruction execution system, apparatus, or device.
In order for those skilled in the art to better understand the present invention, the principles of the present invention are described below with reference to the accompanying drawings:
1 multi-system cooperative emergency treatment feature
Because the emergency has the characteristics of uncertainty, dynamic property and the like, the conditions of various information, dynamic information change and the like usually exist in the evolution process, so that a decision maker is difficult to obtain reasonable decision results in a short time, the existing emergency decision method is biased to the selection of an emergency treatment scheme for the emergency, the influence of the emergency on the rail transit operation organization is not analyzed, and the effective decision of the emergency scheme of each system is difficult to realize.
2 Multi-System operation factor analysis for Equipment failure influence
The rail transit infrastructure is linear and continuously distributed, the influence degree of faults on multi-system operation is influenced by various factors, and the influence conditions of the same faults in different time ranges and space ranges on the operation are different, for example, the influence of the faults in early peak time periods on the operation is larger than Yu Pingfeng time periods, and the influence of the faults in stations with multi-line transfer on the operation is larger than that of stations with non-transfer, and the like. These influencing factors are closely related to time and space, and the influencing factors of different time ranges and different space positions are different, and the quantitative value of the influencing factors is difficult. According to whether the influence factors change with time and space and combining the service characteristics of multi-system rail transit operation, authors divide the influence factors into multiple categories including time factors, space-time factors and space-time independent factors, and the specific division and example are shown in table 1.
Table 1 Fault influencing Multi-System operation factor partitioning
3 building an emergency decision model based on the physical elements
The basic idea of the multi-system rail transit emergency decision model based on the matter element analysis theory is as follows: dividing the severity of the sudden fault into a plurality of grades according to data accumulated in sudden fault treatment and experience of field expert technicians in the operation process, calculating the degree of correlation between the result of comprehensive evaluation of each fault influence factor and the severity of the fault according to the correlation function on the extension set, and indicating that the closer the degree of coincidence between the sudden fault and the severity set of the fault is, namely the severity grade of the sudden fault, the greater the degree of correlation is.
3.1 determining the physical element for evaluating the severity of the sudden fault of the multi-system track traffic system
Use of extension hereinnThe concept of the dimension element describes the grade of the severity of the sudden fault of the multi-system rail transit system to be evaluated. The principal idea of the primitive analysis method is to describe things by three elements of 'things names, characteristics and magnitudes', and to compose basic units of ordered three elements, namely primitives. The primitive matrix of burst fault severity can be expressed as:
1
wherein a is the number of sudden faults, b is the number of influencing factors, and R is a matter element for evaluating the severity of sudden faults of the multi-system track traffic system, wherein Is the firstiTo be assessed for faults, +.>Is the firstkA number of fault influencing factors: m is m ik Is the firstiThe individual faults correspond to their fault influencing factors +.>Is a value of (a).
3.2 determination of classical domainsAnd section domain->
Dividing the grade of the sudden fault severity of the multi-system track traffic system into the grade according to the fault severity gradeyStage, classical primitive of research object in available primitive system。
2
Wherein T is j Is the firstA fault severity level; m is m jb Is f k Regarding T j Classical domain of u jb And v jb Respectively->Upper and lower limits of the value.
On the basis of determining a classical domain matrix, according to the magnitude ranges of all levels of each fault influence factor, a node domain matter element for evaluating the severity of the fault is formed，T p M is the whole of the severity level of sudden fault of the standard rail transit system in the material element system pb Is characterized by f k The range of values of (i.e. T) p Is a segment of the same. The determined node domain object element matrix expression is as follows:
3
3.3 establishing a fault severity level primitive evaluation correlation function
The correlation function in the extension is adopted to calculate the correlation between the proximity of the object to be evaluated and the classical domain object. First, theiBurst fault of multi-system track traffic systemkIndividual influencing factors related to fault severity level categoryjThe correlation function of (2) is:
4
In the method, in the process of the invention,respectively m ik And interval m jk 、m pk Is a closing speed of the (c). Wherein,
3.4 determination of influencing factor weight coefficients
In order to ensure the comprehensiveness and rationality of the weight values of the influencing factors, an improved entropy weight method is adopted to determine the weight of each influencing factor for evaluating the sudden fault severity of the multi-system rail transit system. Firstly, the degree of dispersion of a certain influence factor is judged by using the entropy value, and the larger the degree of dispersion of the influence factor is, the larger the influence of the influence factor on the comprehensive evaluation is. Is provided withaA number of the failures to be detected in the system,bthe data matrix of each influencing factor is。x ik Is the influencing factor value of the sudden fault.
Data matrix of influencing factorsXNormalization processing is carried out to obtain a standard matrix X 0 Wherein:
/>7
calculating influencing factorskEntropy value H below j 。
8
When (when)When in use, then->Nonsensical. Therefore, the traditional matrix is required to be->And (5) performing correction.
9
Calculating influencing factorskEntropy weight w k 。
10
Wherein, and->。
The basic idea of the analytic hierarchy process is to use a 9-scale method to compare the importance of influencing factors in pairs to construct a judgment matrix, and obtain influencing factors through consistency test of single-level ordering, total-level ordering and corresponding thereof kWeights of (2)。
By using objectivityWeight obtained by method and subjective method, and influence factor is calculatedkWeights of (2)。
11
3.5 comprehensive evaluation of severity of sudden fault of multi-system rail transit system
Multi-system track traffic system sudden fault severity evaluation material elementThe degree of association of (2) is: />
According to the calculation result, the object to be evaluated can be knownThe fault severity level istA stage.
3.6 Emergency treatment level (model output)
1) Class of current limiting measures
The severity j of the fault consequences is classified into several classes, including catastrophic, critical and mild. Thus, failure in the present inventionThe severity of the consequences is classified as catastrophic, critical, light.
Adopting primary current limiting measures to limit the current of a payment area in the station;
adopting a secondary current limiting measure to limit the current of a non-pay area in the station;
three-stage current limiting is adopted, and the current limiting measure is off-site current limiting;
four-stage current limiting is adopted, and the current limiting measure is station sealing.
2) Determining an adjustment period for adjusting a driving pattern
According to the time of failureAnd determining an adjustment period for adjusting the driving operation diagram.
3) Critical influencing factor analysis
According toiBurst fault of multi-system track traffic system kIndividual influencing factors related to fault severity level categoryjIs a function of the correlation of (2)The category of the fault severity level with highest correlationjObtaining higher-grade influencing factorskFurther analyzing the reason that the device is at the high position, and taking other corresponding treatment measures.
The rail transit infrastructure is linear and continuously distributed, the influence degree of faults on multi-system operation is influenced by various factors, and the influence conditions of the same faults in different time ranges and space ranges on the operation are different, for example, the influence of the faults in early peak time periods on the operation is larger than Yu Pingfeng time periods, and the influence of the faults in stations with multi-line transfer on the operation is larger than that of stations with non-transfer, and the like. These influencing factors are closely related to time and space, and the influencing factors of different time ranges and different space positions are different, and the quantitative value of the influencing factors is difficult. According to whether the influence factors change with time and space, the service characteristics of multi-system rail transit operation are combined, the factors influencing the multi-system operation by faults are deeply analyzed, the influence factors are divided into multiple categories including time factors, space-time factors and factors irrelevant to space and time, and a quantitative calculation method of the factors is provided.
The multi-system rail transit emergency collaborative decision-making method based on the physical element constructed by the physical element method can quantify the influence degree of the faults and rapidly generate a grading emergency treatment strategy according to the specific condition of the faults. Determining sudden fault severity evaluation material elements of multi-system rail transit system by adopting material element analysis method, and determining classical domain based on fault severity gradingAnd section domain->And calculating the association degree of the kth influencing factor of the fault severity evaluation object with respect to the fault severity level class j through the fault severity level object evaluation association function, wherein the calculation formulas are (1) to (6) respectively.
Determining the weight of each influencing factor using a combination of improved entropy weighting and analytic hierarchy processAnd determining the grade of the severity of the sudden fault of the multi-system track traffic system, wherein the calculation methods are respectively shown in formulas (7) - (13). The fuzzy rule and the fault influence degree calculation formula are formulated together by field experts and scholars, so that the emergency treatment strategy can be closer to the actual situation, the reliability is higher, and the efficient treatment of the emergency event by the manager is facilitated.
Because the emergency event has the characteristics of uncertainty, dynamic property and the like, the conditions of various information, dynamic information change and the like usually exist in the evolution process, so that a decision maker is difficult to obtain reasonable decision results in a short time, the existing emergency decision method for the emergency fault is biased to the selection of an emergency disposal scheme for the event, the influence of the emergency event on the rail transit operation organization is not analyzed, and the effective decision of the emergency scheme of each system is difficult to realize.
According to the invention, by analyzing the characteristics of multi-system collaborative emergency treatment, the factors affecting multi-system operation by faults are subjected to deep analysis and quantitative calculation. The emergency decision model constructed by the material element method can quantify the influence degree of the fault and quickly generate a grading emergency treatment strategy according to the specific condition of the fault. The generation of the emergency treatment strategy is based on various factors influencing the operation, comprehensive consideration is carried out, the emergency treatment strategy is obtained to be closer to the actual situation, the reliability is high, and the efficient treatment of the emergency event by the manager is facilitated.
The emergency decision method based on the physical element analysis fully considers the objectivity of the actual data and the subjectivity of expert experience, can more reasonably and comprehensively reflect the importance of influence factors, and accurately evaluates the grade of the current sudden fault. Through the evaluation of the whole and single index, the control measures of sudden fault influence can be provided in a targeted manner, and scientific basis is provided for the manager to formulate emergency measures.
Although the invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it will be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that: the technical scheme described in the foregoing embodiments can be modified or some technical features thereof can be replaced by equivalents; such modifications and substitutions do not depart from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.
Claims (6)
1. The multi-system rail transit emergency collaborative decision-making method based on the physical elements is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
collecting historical fault information of the multi-system rail transit, and quantifying fault factors affecting the multi-system operation according to the historical fault information; constructing a physical element for evaluating the severity of sudden faults of the multi-system rail transit system;
dividing the severity of the sudden fault into a plurality of grades based on quantized fault influence multi-system operation factors and physical elements for evaluating the severity of the sudden fault of the multi-system rail transit system, and calculating the comprehensive evaluation result of each fault influence factor and the severity relevance of the fault according to the relevance function on the extension set;
when the sudden fault occurs, the state data of each current influencing factor of the sudden fault is subjected to corresponding fault severity level according to the association degree; and corresponding current limiting measures are carried out according to the fault severity level;
the construction and evaluation of the physical elements of the severity of the sudden fault of the multi-system track traffic system specifically comprises the following steps:
describing things by three elements of 'things names, characteristics and magnitudes', and forming basic units of ordered three elements, namely, the primitives; the primitive matrix of burst fault severity is expressed as:
Wherein a is the number of sudden faults, b is the number of influencing factors, and R is a matter element for evaluating the severity of sudden faults of the multi-system track traffic system, whereinFor the ith failure to be evaluated, +.>F is +.>Is defined by the following steps: m is m ik For the ith fault corresponds to its fault influencing factor +.>Is of the value of M, M is M ik Is the whole of (2);
the method for classifying the severity of the sudden fault into a plurality of grades specifically comprises the following steps:
dividing the grade of the sudden fault severity of the multi-system track traffic system into y grades according to the fault severity grade to obtain the physical element；
Wherein T is j Is the firstA fault severity level; m is m jb Is f k Regarding T j Classical domain of M j Is the totality of the j-th failed classical domain; u (u) jb And v jb Respectively f k Upper and lower limits of the value;
according to the magnitude ranges of all levels of each fault influencing factor, a node domain matter element for evaluating the severity of the fault is formed，T p The system is the whole of the severity level of the sudden fault of the standard rail transit system in the material element system; m is m pb Is characterized by f k The range of values of (i.e. T) p Is a segment of the (c); m is M p Is the whole of the festival domain; the determined node domain object element matrix expression is as follows:
；
the calculating the degree of association between the result of the comprehensive evaluation of each fault influence factor and the severity degree of the fault according to the association function on the extension set specifically comprises the following steps: establishing a fault severity level matter element judgment association function, determining an influence factor weight coefficient, and comprehensively evaluating the sudden fault severity level of the multi-system rail transit system;
The establishing the fault severity level matter element judgment association function specifically comprises the following steps:
adopting a correlation function in the extension science to perform correlation calculation on the proximity of the object to be evaluated and the classical domain object; the association function of the kth influencing factor of the sudden fault of the ith multi-system track traffic system with respect to the fault severity level class j is as follows:
；
in the method, in the process of the invention,respectively m ik And section classical domain m jk Domain m pk Is a closing speed of (2); wherein,
；
the determining of the influence factor weight coefficient specifically comprises the following steps:
an improved entropy weight method is adopted to determine the weight of each influence factor for evaluating the severity of the sudden fault of the multi-system track traffic system; judging the discrete degree of a certain influence factor by adopting an entropy value, wherein a data matrix is，x ik The value of the influence factor of the sudden fault is a sudden fault quantity, and b is an influence factor quantity;
normalizing the influence factor data matrix X to obtain a standard matrix X 0 Standard matrix X 0 After correction, calculating by nine scales to obtain the weight of the influence factor kAccording to the weight->Calculating the weight of the influencing factor k>；
The comprehensive evaluation of the severity of the sudden fault of the multi-system rail transit system specifically comprises the following steps:
multi-system track traffic system sudden fault severity evaluation material element T i The degree of association of (2) is:
；
according to the calculation result, obtaining the grade T with the highest relevance with the fault severity degree, namely the to-be-evaluated object T i The fault severity level is t.
2. The multi-system rail transit emergency collaborative decision-making method based on the object according to claim 1, which is characterized in that,
the method for quantifying the fault factors affecting multi-system operation specifically comprises the following steps:
according to whether the influence factors change with time and space and combining the business characteristics of multi-system rail transit operation, the influence factors are divided into multiple categories including time factors, space-time factors and space-time independent factors.
3. The multi-system rail transit emergency collaborative decision-making method based on the object according to any one of the claim 1 or 2, characterized in that,
the corresponding current limiting measures are carried out according to the fault severity level, and specifically include:
the severity j of the fault consequences is classified into several classes, including catastrophic, critical and minor;
adopting primary current limiting measures to limit the current of a payment area in the station;
adopting a secondary current limiting measure to limit the current of a non-pay area in the station;
three-stage current limiting is adopted, and the current limiting measure is off-site current limiting;
Adopting four-stage current limiting, wherein the current limiting measure is station sealing;
determining an adjustment period for adjusting the running chart according to the fault influence time;
correlation function of kth influencing factors of sudden faults of i multi-system rail transit systems on fault severity level class jThe class j of the fault severity degree with the highest correlation is obtained, the influence factor k with higher class is obtained, and other corresponding treatment measures are adopted.
4. The utility model provides a emergent collaborative decision-making device of multisystem track traffic based on thing, its characterized in that includes: the system comprises a quantization unit, a relevance calculating unit and an emergency measure unit;
the quantification unit is used for collecting historical fault information of the multi-system rail transit and quantifying fault factors affecting multi-system operation according to the historical fault information;
the association degree calculation unit is used for constructing a material element for evaluating the severity degree of the sudden fault of the multi-system rail transit system, dividing the severity degree of the sudden fault into a plurality of grades based on the quantized fault influence multi-system operation factors and the material element for evaluating the severity degree of the sudden fault of the multi-system rail transit system, and calculating the association degree of the comprehensive evaluation result of each fault influence factor and the severity degree of the fault according to the association function on the expandable set;
The emergency measure unit is used for obtaining the corresponding fault severity level according to the association degree of the state data of each current influence factor of the sudden fault when the sudden fault occurs; and corresponding current limiting measures are carried out according to the fault severity level;
the construction and evaluation of the physical elements of the severity of the sudden fault of the multi-system track traffic system specifically comprises the following steps:
describing things by three elements of 'things names, characteristics and magnitudes', and forming basic units of ordered three elements, namely, the primitives; the primitive matrix of burst fault severity is expressed as:
wherein a is the number of sudden faults, b is the number of influencing factors, and R is a matter element for evaluating the severity of sudden faults of the multi-system track traffic system, whereinFor the ith failure to be evaluated, +.>F is +.>Is defined by the following steps: m is m ik For the ith fault corresponds to its fault influencing factor +.>Is of the value of M, M is M ik Is the whole of (2);
the method for classifying the severity of the sudden fault into a plurality of grades specifically comprises the following steps:
dividing the grade of the sudden fault severity of the multi-system track traffic system into y grades according to the fault severity grade to obtain the physical element；
Wherein T is j Is the firstA fault severity level; m is m jb Is f k Regarding T j Classical domain of M j Is the totality of the j-th failed classical domain; u (u) jb And v jb Respectively f k Upper and lower limits of the value;
according to the magnitude ranges of all levels of each fault influencing factor, a node domain matter element for evaluating the severity of the fault is formed，T p The system is the whole of the severity level of the sudden fault of the standard rail transit system in the material element system; m is m pb Is characterized by f k The range of values of (i.e. T) p Is a segment of the (c); m is M p Is the whole of the festival domain; the determined node domain object element matrix expression is as follows:
；
the calculating the degree of association between the result of the comprehensive evaluation of each fault influence factor and the severity degree of the fault according to the association function on the extension set specifically comprises the following steps: establishing a fault severity level matter element judgment association function, determining an influence factor weight coefficient, and comprehensively evaluating the sudden fault severity level of the multi-system rail transit system;
the establishing the fault severity level matter element judgment association function specifically comprises the following steps:
adopting a correlation function in the extension science to perform correlation calculation on the proximity of the object to be evaluated and the classical domain object; the association function of the kth influencing factor of the sudden fault of the ith multi-system track traffic system with respect to the fault severity level class j is as follows:
；
in the method, in the process of the invention,respectively are provided with Is m ik And section classical domain m jk Domain m pk Is a closing speed of (2); wherein,
；
the determining of the influence factor weight coefficient specifically comprises the following steps:
an improved entropy weight method is adopted to determine the weight of each influence factor for evaluating the severity of the sudden fault of the multi-system track traffic system; judging the discrete degree of a certain influence factor by adopting an entropy value, wherein a data matrix is，x ik The value of the influence factor of the sudden fault is a sudden fault quantity, and b is an influence factor quantity;
normalizing the influence factor data matrix X to obtain a standard matrix X 0 Standard matrix X 0 After correction, calculating by nine scales to obtain the weight of the influence factor kAccording to the weight->Calculating the weight of the influencing factor k>；
The comprehensive evaluation of the severity of the sudden fault of the multi-system rail transit system specifically comprises the following steps:
multi-system track traffic system sudden fault severity evaluation material element T i The degree of association of (2) is:
；
according to the calculation result, obtaining the grade T with the highest relevance with the fault severity degree, namely the to-be-evaluated object T i The reason for this isThe barrier severity level is t.
5. The electronic equipment is characterized by comprising a processor, a communication interface, a memory and a communication bus, wherein the processor, the communication interface and the memory are communicated with each other through the communication bus;
A memory for storing a computer program;
the processor is used for realizing the multi-system rail transit emergency collaborative decision-making method based on the object element according to any one of claims 1-3 when executing the program stored in the memory.
6. A computer readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program, wherein the computer program when executed by a processor implements the multi-system rail transit emergency collaborative decision-making method based on a primitive of any one of claims 1-3.
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