CN116703147A - Sea traffic risk assessment method based on water area meshing and index standardization - Google Patents
Sea traffic risk assessment method based on water area meshing and index standardization Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention belongs to the field of data analysis, and relates to an offshore traffic risk assessment method based on water area meshing and index standardization, which comprises the steps of meshing a sea area to be assessed according to the distance from a coastline to form a plurality of grid unit water areas with different areas; according to standard conversion value C of ith ship in any water area j i Calculating the corresponding AIS ship standard flow F j The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the According to the natural quantity r of the k-th water dangerous cases in any water area j kj Corresponding conversion coefficient w k Determining the standard quantity R of dangerous cases on water j The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the According to the standard quantity R of dangerous cases on water j And AIS Ship standard flow F j Obtaining the sea traffic risk intensity A corresponding to any water area j According to the sea traffic risk intensity A j And its maximum value and minimum value, constructing sea traffic risk index a of any water area j j . The invention is applicable to any waterAnd analyzing the ship flow and dangerous situation in the domain, so as to realize the fine assessment of the water traffic risk index and improve the risk assessment accuracy.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of data analysis, in particular to an offshore traffic risk assessment method based on water area meshing and index standardization.
Background
The marine traffic risk assessment is an important technical support for the works such as marine traffic safety management, dynamic standby of marine rescue force, planning and programming of a marine rescue system, demonstration of marine rescue construction projects and the like. The offshore traffic risk assessment mainly comprises two layers of assessment indexes and assessment methods. The risk assessment index generally relates to two levels of ship traffic flow and ship traffic accidents, wherein the flow index adopts sampling investigation data, arrival and departure ship report data, ship automatic identification system (Automatic Identification System, AIS) flow and other data, and the accident index adopts the data of the number of ship traffic accidents, the number of missing death, the number of sunken ships, direct economic loss and the like. The risk assessment method comprises early case analysis method, accident statistics method, normalized safety assessment (Formal Safety Assessment, FSA) method, later probability and mathematical statistics, computer simulation, gray clustering, fuzzy set theory, rough set theory and other methods.
Patent document publication No. CN112441196a discloses a method for processing ship navigation risk assessment information, which includes constructing a ship traffic flow model, wherein the ship traffic flow model includes an intelligent ship simulation model and a conventional ship simulation model; presetting an initialized water area environment parameter of the ship traffic flow model in a set scene; acquiring ship state information and on-board environment information of the ship traffic flow model in the process of traffic flow simulation; performing navigation risk assessment according to the initialized water area environment parameters, the ship state information and the on-board environment information; and generating maritime supervision suggestion information according to the evaluation result of the navigation risk.
However, in the prior art, the risk assessment reference factor and the application water area for the offshore traffic are single, and the problem of low assessment precision exists.
Disclosure of Invention
Therefore, the invention provides an offshore traffic risk assessment method based on water area meshing and index standardization, which can solve the problem of low assessment precision caused by single reference factors and application water areas in the risk assessment process of offshore traffic in the prior art.
In order to achieve the above object, the present invention provides an offshore traffic risk assessment method based on water area meshing and index standardization, comprising:
according to the distance from the coastline, performing grid division on the sea area to be evaluated to form a plurality of water areas with different areas;
acquiring an ith ship standard conversion value C in AIS ship flow in the sea area to be evaluated i ；
According to the standard conversion value C of the ith ship i Calculating AIS ship standard flow F corresponding to any water area j ；
According to the natural quantity r of the k-level water dangerous cases in any water area j k,j Corresponding conversion coefficient w k Determining the number R of dangerous cases on water in the water area j ；
According to the standard quantity R of dangerous cases on water j And AIS Ship standard flow F j Obtaining the sea traffic risk intensity A corresponding to any water area j Wherein j is an integer less than or equal to N, and N is the number of water areas;
selecting sea traffic risk intensity A in N water areas j According to the maximum and minimum of the sea traffic risk intensity A j And its maximum value and minimum value, constructing an offshore traffic risk index a of any water area j And determining a risk level corresponding to the water area according to the marine traffic risk index, and further determining the risk distribution state of the sea area to be evaluated.
Further, meshing the sea area to be evaluated according to the distance from the coastline comprises:
based on the technical performance of the marine rescue equipment, determining the area of an effective covered water area of the marine rescue equipment;
sequentially dividing the coastline in a direction perpendicular to the whole coastline according to the district of the organization with the maritime rescue equipment;
sequentially dividing the coastline in the whole parallel direction according to a first width, a second width, a third width, a fourth width and a fifth width;
the first width is equal to the second width and is sequentially smaller than the third width, the fourth width and the fifth width, and the distance between the first width and the coastline is 0.
Further, the first width is 10 seashore offshore, the second width is 10-20 seashore offshore, the third width is 20-50 seashore offshore, the fourth width is 50-100 seashore offshore, and the fifth width is 100 seashore offshore and further.
Further, the ith ship standard conversion value C in the AIS ship flow in the sea area to be evaluated is obtained i Comprising the following steps:
the main scale of the ship types of various ships is synthesized, the product of the total length, the profile width and the profile depth of a 5000-ton standard ship type is determined to be 20000 cubic meters, the corresponding conversion value is 1, and any standard conversion value of the ship in the sea area to be evaluated is as follows:
wherein: c (C) i The standard conversion value of the ith ship in the AIS ship flow,
L i 、B i 、D i for the total length, the profile width and the profile depth of the ship to be standardized and converted,
L o 、B o 、D o is the total length, the profile width and the profile depth of a standard ship shape.
Further, the standard conversion value C according to the ith ship i Calculating AIS ship standard flow F corresponding to any water area j Comprising the following steps:
for any water area of the sea area to be evaluated, AIS ship natural flow N j Defining the sum of the number of ships entering and exiting all boundary lines of the water area within a preset time, wherein the AIS ship standard flow is as follows:
wherein: f (F) j For AIS ship standard flow in jth water area, N j And (5) the natural flow of the AIS ship in the j-th water area.
Further, the water dangerous case standard quantity R of the water area is determined according to the natural quantity of the water dangerous cases of each level in any water area and the corresponding conversion coefficient j Comprising the following steps:
for any water area of coastal sea area to be evaluated, the number of dangerous cases on water is as follows:
wherein: r is R j Is the standard quantity, w, of dangerous cases on water in the jth water area k Is the comprehensive conversion coefficient of the k-th grade water dangerous case, r k,j The natural quantity of dangerous cases on the water of the kth level in the jth water area.
Further, according to the number R of the dangerous cases on water j And AIS Ship standard flow F j Obtaining the sea traffic risk intensity A corresponding to any water area j Comprising the following steps:
for any water area of the coastal sea area to be evaluated, the ratio of the number of dangerous cases on water to the standard flow of the AIS ship in the preset time is the standard intensity of the sea traffic risk:
wherein: a is that j The standard intensity of the sea traffic risk of the jth water area.
Further, according to the sea traffic risk intensity A j Constructing an offshore traffic risk index for any one of the waters, the maximum and minimum values comprising:
the standard intensity normalization processing of the sea traffic risk of different waters is defined as sea traffic risk index:
wherein: a, a j For the sea traffic risk index of the jth water area, max (a j ) Is the maximum value of traffic risk intensity in the whole water area, min (A j ) Is the minimum value of traffic risk intensity in the whole water area.
Further, determining a risk level corresponding to the water area according to the marine traffic risk index comprises the following steps:
determining a value of the traffic risk index;
determining an index interval in which the traffic risk index is located;
and determining the risk grade corresponding to the regional block based on the index interval, and coloring the regional block according to a grade-identification color comparison table.
The index section comprises a first section, a second section, a third section, a fourth section and a fifth section, wherein the numerical range of the first section is more than 0.8 and less than or equal to 1.0, the numerical range of the second section is more than 0.6 and less than or equal to 0.8, the numerical range of the third section is more than 0.4 and less than or equal to 0.6, the numerical range of the fourth section is more than 0.2 and less than or equal to 0.4, and the numerical range of the fifth section is more than or equal to 0 and less than or equal to 0.2.
Further, determining the risk level corresponding to the region block based on the index section, and coloring the region block according to the level-identification color comparison table includes:
if the traffic risk index is in the first interval, the corresponding risk level is a first level, and the identification color corresponding to the first level is red;
if the traffic risk index is in the second interval, the corresponding risk level is a second level, and the identification color corresponding to the second level is orange;
if the traffic risk index is in the third interval, the corresponding risk level is a third level, and the identification color corresponding to the third level is yellow;
if the traffic risk index is in a fourth interval, the corresponding risk level is a fourth level, and the identification color corresponding to the fourth level is blue;
and if the traffic risk index is in the fifth interval, the corresponding risk level is a fifth level, and the identification color corresponding to the fifth level is green.
The first-level risk level is sequentially higher than the second-level risk level, the third-level risk level, the fourth-level risk level and the fifth-level risk level.
Compared with the prior art, the method has the beneficial effects that the sea traffic risk index in each water area is calculated by dividing the water area of the sea area to be evaluated, the accurate evaluation of the water area in the sea area to be evaluated is realized, and the dangerous case standard quantity R on water is utilized j And AIS Ship standard flow F j Obtaining the sea traffic risk intensity A corresponding to any water area j Further converted into an offshore traffic risk index a of the water area j According to the sea traffic risk index a j And determining the risk level corresponding to the water area, further determining the risk distribution state of the sea area to be evaluated, and carrying out standardized analysis on ships and dangerous situations in the water area due to grid division of the water area to be evaluated, so as to refine the water traffic risk index of the water area and improve the risk evaluation accuracy.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow diagram of an offshore traffic risk assessment method based on water area meshing and index standardization provided for standardized conversion;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of a practical application flow of an offshore traffic risk assessment method based on water area meshing and index standardization provided by conversion to be standardized;
fig. 3 is a schematic diagram of sea area division to be evaluated in the sea traffic risk evaluation method based on water area meshing and index standardization provided by conversion to be standardized.
Detailed Description
In order that the objects and advantages of the invention will become more apparent, the invention will be further described with reference to the following examples; it should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are for purposes of illustration only and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention.
Preferred embodiments of the present invention are described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. It should be understood by those skilled in the art that these embodiments are merely for explaining the technical principles of the present invention, and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention.
It should be noted that, in the description of the present invention, terms such as "upper," "lower," "left," "right," "inner," "outer," and the like indicate directions or positional relationships based on the directions or positional relationships shown in the drawings, which are merely for convenience of description, and do not indicate or imply that the apparatus or elements must have a specific orientation, be constructed and operated in a specific orientation, and thus should not be construed as limiting the present invention.
In addition, it should be noted that, in the description of the present invention, unless explicitly specified and limited otherwise, the terms "mounted," "connected," and "connected" are to be construed broadly, and may be, for example, fixedly connected, detachably connected, or integrally connected; can be mechanically or electrically connected; can be directly connected or indirectly connected through an intermediate medium, and can be communication between two elements. The specific meaning of the above terms in the present invention can be understood by those skilled in the art according to the specific circumstances.
Referring to fig. 1, the method for evaluating the risk of the marine traffic based on water area meshing and index standardization provided by standardization conversion includes:
step S100: according to the distance from the coastline, performing grid division on the sea area to be evaluated to form a plurality of water areas with different areas;
step S200: acquiring an ith ship standard conversion value C in AIS ship flow in the sea area to be evaluated i ；
Step S300: according to the standard conversion value C of the ith ship i Calculating AIS ship standard flow F corresponding to any water area j ；
Step S400: determining the water dangerous case standard quantity R of the water area according to the natural quantity of the water dangerous cases of each level in any water area and the corresponding conversion coefficient j ；
Step S500: according to the standard quantity R of dangerous cases on water j And AIS Ship standard flow F j Obtaining the sea traffic risk intensity A corresponding to any water area j Wherein j is an integer less than or equal to N, and N is the number of water areas;
step S600: selecting sea traffic risk intensity A in N water areas j According to the maximum and minimum of the sea traffic risk intensity A j And its maximum value and minimum value, constructing an offshore traffic risk index a of any water area j And determining a risk level corresponding to the water area according to the marine traffic risk index, and further determining the risk distribution state of the sea area to be evaluated.
Specifically, the sea traffic risk index in each water area is calculated by dividing the water area of the sea area to be evaluated, so that accurate assessment of the water area risk in the sea area to be evaluated is realized, and the dangerous case standard quantity R on water is utilized j And AIS Ship standard flow F j Obtaining the sea traffic risk intensity A corresponding to any water area j Further converted into the sea traffic risk index a j . According to the sea traffic risk index a j And determining the risk level corresponding to the water area, further determining the risk distribution state of the sea area to be evaluated, and carrying out standardized analysis on ships and dangerous situations in the water area due to grid division of the water area to be evaluated, so as to refine the water traffic risk index of the water area and improve the risk evaluation accuracy.
Specifically, according to the distance from the coastline, the sea area to be evaluated is subjected to grid division, which comprises the following steps:
based on the technical performance of the marine rescue equipment, determining the area of an effective covered water area of the marine rescue equipment;
sequentially dividing the coastline along the boundary of the organization district with the maritime rescue equipment in the direction vertical to the whole coastline;
sequentially dividing the coastline in the whole parallel direction according to a first width, a second width, a third width, a fourth width and a fifth width;
the first width is equal to the second width and is sequentially smaller than the third width, the fourth width and the fifth width, and the distance between the first width and the coastline is 0.
Specifically, through determining based on the technical performance of maritime rescue equipment, the area of the effective covered water area of the maritime rescue equipment is determined, the subdivision of the sea area to be evaluated is realized, rescue can be carried out on all positions in the sea area to be evaluated, and division is carried out sequentially in the parallel direction of coastlines according to the first width, the second width, the third width, the fourth width and the fifth width, and the first width is equal to the second width and is sequentially smaller than the third width, the fourth width and the fifth width, so that grid division of the sea area to be evaluated is realized, the accuracy of division is greatly improved, division of different areas of the sea area to be evaluated is realized by adopting different widths, the applicable water area range is effectively determined, the division accuracy of the water area is improved, and the assessment accuracy of the water traffic risk is improved.
Specifically, the first width is 10 seashore offshore, the second width is 10-20 seashore offshore, the third width is 20-50 seashore offshore, the fourth width is 50-100 seashore offshore, and the fifth width is 100 seashore offshore and further.
Specifically, by setting the interval distance taking 10 sea miles as the minimum unit, grid units in the sea area to be evaluated are radiated effectively, so that the division of the water area in the sea area to be evaluated is finer, the risk coefficient evaluation pertinence in each water area is improved, and the accuracy of constructing a risk index graph of the sea area to be evaluated is greatly improved.
Specifically, the method obtains an ith ship standard conversion value C in AIS ship flow in the sea area to be evaluated i Comprising the following steps:
the main scale of the ship types of various ships is synthesized, the product of the total length, the profile width and the profile depth of a 5000-ton standard ship type is determined to be 20000 cubic meters, the corresponding conversion value is 1, and any standard conversion value of the ship in the sea area to be evaluated is as follows:
wherein: c (C) i The standard conversion value of the ith ship in the AIS ship flow,
L i 、B i 、D i for the total length, the profile width and the profile depth of the ship to be standardized and converted,
L o 、B o 、D o is the total length, the profile width and the profile depth of a standard ship shape.
Specifically, the standard conversion is performed according to the total length, the profile width and the profile depth of the ship in the sea area to be evaluated, the 5000-ton standard ship type main scale is used as a standard for conversion, the accurate determination of any ship standard conversion value is realized, the accuracy of risk evaluation values in the water area is improved, and the calculation efficiency is improved.
Specifically, according to the ith vessel standard conversion value C i Calculating AIS ship standard flow F corresponding to any water area j Comprising:
for any water area of the sea area to be evaluated, AIS ship natural flow N j Defining the sum of the number of ships entering and exiting all boundary lines of the water area within a preset time, wherein the AIS ship standard flow is as follows:
wherein: f (F) j For AIS ship standard flow in jth water area, N j And (5) the natural flow of the AIS ship in the j-th water area.
Specifically, the standard flow F of the AIS ship in the water area is calculated by summarizing and standardized conversion of the natural number of the ship in any water area j to be standardized j To determine the risk in the waterThe assessment index provides accurate data reference, and the accuracy of the risk assessment index is effectively improved.
Specifically, the natural quantity r of the dangerous cases on the water according to the kth level in any water area j kj Corresponding conversion coefficient w k Determining the number R of dangerous cases on water in the water area j Comprising:
for any water area of coastal sea area to be evaluated, the number of dangerous cases on water is as follows:
wherein: r is R j Is the standard quantity, w, of dangerous cases on water in the jth water area k Is the comprehensive conversion coefficient of the k-th grade water dangerous case, r k,j The natural quantity of dangerous cases on the water of the kth level in the jth water area.
Specifically, the risk level of the water area is effectively estimated by quantifying the standard quantity of the offshore risk in any water area to be standardized, so that accurate data reference is provided for determining the risk assessment index in the water area, and the accuracy of the risk assessment index is effectively improved.
In particular, according to the number R of dangerous cases on water j And AIS Ship standard flow F j Obtaining the sea traffic risk intensity A corresponding to any water area j Comprising:
for any water area of the coastal sea area to be evaluated, the ratio of the number of dangerous cases on water to the standard flow of the AIS ship in the preset time is the standard intensity of the sea traffic risk:
wherein: a is that j The standard intensity of the sea traffic risk of the jth water area.
Specifically, the ratio of the number of dangerous cases on water to the standard flow of AIS ships in the preset time of any water area is defined as the standard intensity of the risk of the sea traffic to be standardized and converted, so that the standard intensity of the risk of the sea traffic is quantized, the standard intensity of the risk of all water areas in the whole sea area to be evaluated is quantized, the accuracy of the standard intensity of the risk of the sea traffic is improved, and the risk level determining efficiency is improved.
In particular, according to the sea traffic risk intensity A j And the maximum value and the minimum value thereof, and constructing an offshore traffic risk index of any water area, comprising:
the standard intensity normalization processing of the sea traffic risk of different waters is defined as sea traffic risk index:
wherein: a, a j For the sea traffic risk index of the jth water area, max (a j ) Is the maximum value of traffic risk intensity in the whole water area, min (A j ) Is the minimum value of traffic risk intensity in the whole water area.
Specifically, the standard conversion to be standardized is defined as an offshore traffic risk index by normalizing the standard intensities of the offshore traffic risks in different waters, and when calculating the offshore traffic risk index, for the offshore traffic risk index of the jth water area, max (a j ) Is the maximum value of traffic risk intensity in the whole water area, min (A j ) The minimum value of the traffic risk intensity in all water areas is adopted, so that the determination of the marine traffic risk index is more accurate, and the accuracy is improved.
Specifically, determining a risk level corresponding to the water area according to the marine traffic risk index includes:
determining a value of the traffic risk index;
determining an index interval in which the traffic risk index is located;
determining a corresponding risk level based on the index interval, and coloring the regional block according to a level-identification color comparison table;
the index section comprises a first section, a second section, a third section, a fourth section and a fifth section, wherein the numerical range of the first section is more than 0.8 and less than or equal to 1.0, the numerical range of the second section is more than 0.6 and less than or equal to 0.8, the numerical range of the third section is more than 0.4 and less than or equal to 0.6, the numerical range of the fourth section is more than 0.2 and less than or equal to 0.4, and the numerical range of the fifth section is more than or equal to 0 and less than or equal to 0.2.
Specifically, the index interval is passed through in the standard conversion, and different numerical ranges are set, so that the index interval in which the traffic risk index is located is accurately determined, the regional blocks are further colored according to the grade-identification color comparison table, the efficient display of the risk degree in the water to be evaluated is improved, and the intuitiveness is higher.
Specifically, the determining the risk level corresponding to the region block based on the index section, and coloring the region block according to the level-identification color comparison table includes:
if the traffic risk index is in the first interval, the corresponding risk level is a first level, and the identification color corresponding to the first level is red;
if the traffic risk index is in the second interval, the corresponding risk level is a second level, and the identification color corresponding to the second level is orange;
if the traffic risk index is in the third interval, the corresponding risk level is a third level, and the identification color corresponding to the third level is yellow;
if the traffic risk index is in a fourth interval, the corresponding risk level is a fourth level, and the identification color corresponding to the fourth level is blue;
and if the traffic risk index is in the fifth interval, the corresponding risk level is a fifth level, and the identification color corresponding to the fifth level is green.
The first-level risk level is sequentially higher than the second-level risk level, the third-level risk level, the fourth-level risk level and the fifth-level risk level.
Specifically, by setting different identification colors corresponding to different risk levels, effective coloring of risks in a water area to be evaluated is realized, effective evaluation and display of the risk degree in the water area are improved, prompt is conveniently and intuitively given, and the risk treatment efficiency is improved.
Specifically, in practical application, the marine traffic risk assessment method based on water area meshing and index standardization can provide technical support for marine traffic safety cruising law enforcement, dynamic standby of marine rescue force, marine rescue system planning and compiling, marine rescue construction project demonstration and the like. The direct maritime system can make a district cruising plan every year, and by evaluating risk indexes and risk grades of different maritime districts, important references can be provided for cruising index making and adjusting such as cruising task times, cruising time and mileage, number of law enforcement officers in running and the like. The ship force of the direct rescue system mainly adopts a dynamic standby mode to carry out marine rescue, and the method can be used for periodically evaluating risks of different water areas and providing support for setting and adjusting dynamic standby points of the marine rescue and on duty and allocation of a specialized rescue ship. When planning departments program maritime rescue construction project feasibility research reports in the long-term programming of the maritime rescue system, consultation units can also be used for analyzing and predicting maritime traffic risks in the whole country or region, and an important basis is provided for supervising the capability assessment of the rescue current situation, the equipment facility layout planning and the construction project technical consultation.
Fig. 2 is a schematic flow chart of actual maritime traffic risk assessment in an embodiment of the present invention, and in combination with fig. 2, the maritime traffic risk assessment is closely related to maritime rescue equipment distribution. The basic water area units distributed by coastal supervision and rescue equipment are mainly directly under the jurisdiction of maritime bureau (provincial maritime search and rescue responsibility area) and under the jurisdiction of branch maritime bureaus (municipal maritime search and rescue responsibility area). However, even within the same maritime jurisdiction, the effective coverage of different maritime rescue equipment varies, such as a marine traffic management system (Vessel Transport System, VTS) system for an offshore 20 in-shore water area, a medium-sized maritime patrol vessel for an offshore 50 in-shore water area, a helicopter for maritime rescue for an offshore 100 in-shore water area, etc.
In order to keep the water area unit where each device is located consistent with its effective coverage, it is necessary to grid the area of the maritime jurisdiction where each device is located based on its effective coverage. According to the requirements of applicable waters or emergency arrival time of different maritime rescue equipment, the range of the corresponding equipment effectively covered the waters is determined as shown in table 1.
TABLE 1 coastal supervision and rescue equipment effectively covers the water area
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In summary, different supervision and rescue equipment effectively covers a water area, and the effective acting distance is measured and calculated by taking a shore base as a starting point, so that the supervision and rescue equipment effectively covers the water area and corresponds to the water area of the water traffic risk assessment water area one by one. As shown in fig. 3, the inside of the branch maritime jurisdiction (municipal maritime search and rescue responsibility area) is further subdivided into 0-10 offshore areas, 10-20 offshore areas and 20-50 offshore areas. And further subdividing the inside of the directly-affiliated maritime jurisdiction (provincial maritime search and rescue responsibility area) into 50-100 offshore waters and 100-200 offshore waters, wherein if the offshore distance of the jurisdiction outer boundary does not exceed the corresponding subdivision boundary line, the water area unit outer boundary is subject to the corresponding jurisdiction boundary line.
The water traffic risk assessment indexes mainly comprise AIS ship flow and water dangerous case number, and are natural counts, and ship ton grade and dangerous case grade are not considered. That is, 1 ship of 100 tons and 1 ship of 100,000 tons are counted according to 1 traffic flow, and 1 major danger and 1 general danger are counted according to 1 danger, which is obviously not reasonable. In order to further improve the accuracy of the marine traffic risk assessment result, the ship flow and dangerous case number indexes are required to be subjected to standardized treatment.
Ship tonnes are typically measured in terms of total weight tonnes (DWT) representing the weight of the ship, primarily for cargo ships, and total tonnes (GT) representing the volume of the ship, primarily for passenger ships. The ship types mainly comprise bulk cargo ships, container ships, ro-ro ships, oil ships, liquefied gas ships, chemical ships, passenger ships, guest ro-ro ships, passenger ferries, non-transport ships and the like. According to the collection of statistics of maritime systems, the ocean-going ships in the coming-going port of the last five years are mainly bulk carriers, oil carriers, container ships and passenger ships (the ratio is obviously higher than other ships), the average carrying capacity is 5210 tons and the ocean-going ships tend to be flat, so that 5000 tons of ocean-going ships are selected as standard ships.
The AIS ship basic information is 24 items in total, but the total weight and total ton information of the ship is not involved, and only the ship main scale information such as total length, profile width, profile depth and the like related to the total weight and total ton information is involved, so that the ship ton level is required to be converted into the ship main scale (total length x profile width x profile depth). The main dimensions of 5000 ton bulk cargo ships, tankers, container ships, and passenger ships were determined according to the "general plane design Specification for harbor (JTJ 211-99) local revision (design ship scale section), respectively, as shown in Table 2.
TABLE 2 Main dimension of a typical 5000 ton ship
The main scales of various ship types are synthesized, the product of the total length, the profile width and the profile depth of a 5000-ton standard ship type is determined to be 20000 cubic meters, the corresponding conversion value is 1, and the conversion values of other ship standards are as follows:
wherein: c (C) i The standard conversion value of the ith ship in the AIS ship flow
L i 、B i 、D i To the total length, the profile width and the profile depth (meters) of the ship which need standardized conversion
L o 、B o 、D o Is the total length, the width and the depth (meter) of a standard ship (5000 tons)
For any sub-divided body of water in a maritime jurisdiction, the AIS ship natural flow is defined as the sum of the number of ships entering and exiting all boundary lines of the body of water within a certain time (annual, quarternary or monthly). The AIS ship standard flow is:
wherein: f (F) j For the standard flow (primary) of the AIS ship in the jth water area
N j For the natural flow (primary) of the AIS ship in the jth water area
Maritime traffic is classified into four classes, namely, extra large, heavy, large and general, according to the number of people in distress, the types of the ships in distress, the total tons of the ships in distress and the number of aircraft in distress, as shown in table 3.
TABLE 3 classification and index of maritime traffic hazards
In order to facilitate quantification and comparison, the index median value of the number of the vessels in distress and the total ton of the vessels in distress corresponding to heavy, large and general dangerous situations is taken, and the upper limit value is determined by temporarily pressing the equal-ratio increase of the lower limit of the extremely large dangerous situations without upper limit limitation. The number of the ship in danger in the extra dangerous case is only 30 (3 times of the number of the ship in danger in the extra dangerous case is 10 times of the number of the ship in danger in the extra dangerous case), the upper limit is calculated according to 3 times of the number of the ship in danger in the extra dangerous case, namely 90, and the number of the ship in danger in the extra dangerous case is 60. The median total ton measurement of the distress ship for the extra dangerous situation is analogized as shown in table 4.
TABLE 4 major grading index median value for water traffic hazards
And taking the general dangerous situations as a basic standard, and taking a conversion coefficient as 1, respectively calculating and averaging the conversion coefficients of the oversized, heavy and larger dangerous situations according to the number of the ship in distress, the ratio of the median value of the total ton index of the ship in distress to the corresponding index of the general dangerous situations, as shown in table 5.
TABLE 5 conversion coefficient of the number of Water dangerous cases
For any subdivision water area in coastal maritime jurisdiction, the number of dangerous cases on water is as follows:
wherein: r is R j For the standard quantity of dangerous cases on water in the jth water area
w k Comprehensive conversion coefficient for kth-level water dangerous case
r k,j Natural quantity of dangerous cases on water of the kth level of the jth water area
For any subdivision water area in coastal maritime jurisdiction, the sea traffic risk degree is mainly related to AIS ship flow and the number of dangerous cases on water, and the ratio of the number of dangerous cases on water to the standard flow of AIS ship in any water area in a certain time is defined as sea traffic risk intensity, namely:
wherein: a is that j Offshore for the jth water areaTraffic risk standard intensity (Start/Extra)
In order to perform space contrast on the sea traffic risks among different water areas, the sea traffic risk standard intensity normalization processing of the different water areas is defined as sea traffic risk indexes, namely:
wherein: a, a j Maritime traffic risk index for jth water area
max(A j )、min(A j ) Is the maximum value and the minimum value of the traffic risk intensity in the whole water area
In order to improve the accuracy of the risk assessment of the offshore traffic, five risk grades are set in the assessment water area, namely, high, medium, low and low risk water areas, and the assessment water area specifically corresponds to different risk standard index spaces, as shown in table 6.
TABLE 6 correspondence between sea traffic risk classes and risk criteria index intervals
| Risk level | Identification color | Risk standard index interval |
| High height | Red color | (0.8,1.0] |
| Higher height | Orange color | (0.6,0.8] |
| In (a) | Yellow colour | (0.4,0.6] |
| Lower level | Blue color | (0.2,0.4] |
| Low and low | Green colour | [0,0.2] |
Thus far, the technical solution of the present invention has been described in connection with the preferred embodiments shown in the drawings. However, it will be readily appreciated by those skilled in the art that the scope of the invention is obviously not limited to these specific embodiments. Equivalent modifications and substitutions for related technical features can be made by those skilled in the art without departing from the principles of the present invention, and such modifications and substitutions are intended to be within the scope of the present invention.
The foregoing description is only of the preferred embodiments of the invention and is not intended to limit the invention; various modifications and variations of the present invention will be apparent to those skilled in the art. Any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement, etc. made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. An offshore traffic risk assessment method based on water area meshing and index standardization is characterized by comprising the following steps:
according to the distance from the coastline, performing grid division on the sea area to be evaluated to form a plurality of grid unit water areas with different areas;
acquiring an ith ship standard conversion value C in AIS ship flow in the sea area to be evaluated i ；
According to the standard conversion value C of the ith ship i Calculating the corresponding AIS ship standard flow F in any grid unit water area j j ；
According to the natural quantity r of the k-level water dangerous situations in any grid unit water area j kj Corresponding conversion coefficient w k Determining the water dangerous case standard quantity R of the grid unit water area j ；
According to the standard quantity R of dangerous cases on water j And AIS Ship standard flow F j Obtaining the sea traffic risk intensity A corresponding to any grid-unit water area j Wherein j is an integer less than or equal to N, and N is the number of water areas;
selecting an intensity of risk of sea traffic A in N grid cell waters j According to the maximum and minimum of the sea traffic risk intensity A j Constructing an offshore traffic risk index a of any grid-unit water area according to the maximum value and the minimum value j And determining a risk level corresponding to the grid-unit water area according to the marine traffic risk index, and further determining the risk distribution state of the sea area to be evaluated.
2. The marine traffic risk assessment method based on water meshing and index standardization of claim 1 characterized by meshing the sea area to be assessed according to the distance from the coastline comprising:
based on the technical performance of the marine rescue equipment, determining the area of an effective covered water area of the marine rescue equipment;
sequentially dividing the coastline along the boundary of the organization district with the maritime rescue equipment in the direction vertical to the whole coastline;
sequentially dividing the coastline in the whole parallel direction according to a first width, a second width, a third width, a fourth width and a fifth width;
the first width is equal to the second width and is sequentially smaller than the third width, the fourth width and the fifth width, and the distance between the first width and the coastline is 0.
3. The marine traffic risk assessment method based on water area meshing and index standardization of claim 2, characterized by:
the first width is 10 seas offshore, the second width is 10-20 seas offshore, the third width is 20-50 seas offshore, the fourth width is 50-100 seas offshore, and the fifth width is 100 seas and beyond.
4. A method of marine traffic risk assessment based on water area meshing and index standardization according to claim 3 characterized by the acquisition of the ith vessel standard conversion value C in the AIS vessel flow in the sea area to be assessed i Comprising the following steps:
the main scale of the ship types of various ships is synthesized, the product of the total length, the profile width and the profile depth of a 5000-ton standard ship type is determined to be 20000 cubic meters, the corresponding conversion value is 1, and any standard conversion value of the ship in the sea area to be evaluated is as follows:
wherein: c (C) i The standard conversion value of the ith ship in the AIS ship flow,
L i 、B i 、D i for the total length, the profile width and the profile depth of the ship to be standardized and converted,
L o 、B o 、D o is the total length, the profile width and the profile depth of a standard ship shape.
5. The marine traffic risk assessment method based on water area meshing and index standardization according to claim 4 characterized by the fact that the standard conversion value C according to the ith ship i Calculating AIS ship standard flow F corresponding to any water area j Comprising the following steps:
for any water area of the sea area to be evaluated, AIS ship natural flow N j Defined as the sum of the number of vessels entering and exiting the water area at all boundary lines within a preset time, and AIS (automatic identification system) vessel standard flowThe amount is as follows:
wherein: f (F) j For AIS ship standard flow in jth water area, N j And (5) the natural flow of the AIS ship in the j-th water area.
6. The method for evaluating risk of sea traffic based on water meshing and index standardization according to claim 5, characterized in that the natural number r of dangerous cases on the kth level of water in any one of the grid-unit water areas j kj Corresponding conversion coefficient w k Determining the number R of dangerous cases on water in the water area j Comprising:
for any grid cell water area of the coastal sea area to be evaluated, the number of the water dangerous cases is as follows:
wherein: r is R j Is the water dangerous case standard quantity, w of the jth grid unit water area k Is the comprehensive conversion coefficient of the k-th grade water dangerous case, r k,j The natural quantity of the kth grade water dangerous cases in the jth grid cell water area.
7. The marine traffic risk assessment method based on water area meshing and index standardization according to claim 6, characterized in that the number R according to the water risk criterion j And AIS Ship standard flow F j Obtaining the sea traffic risk intensity A corresponding to any grid-cell water area j Comprising the following steps:
for any grid unit water area of the coastal sea area to be evaluated, the ratio of the number of dangerous cases on water to the standard flow of AIS ships in the preset time is the standard intensity of the sea traffic risk:
wherein: a is that j The standard intensity of the sea traffic risk of the jth grid cell water area.
8. The marine traffic risk assessment method based on water area meshing and index standardization according to claim 7 characterized by the fact that the marine traffic risk intensity a is based on j And the maximum value and the minimum value thereof, and constructing the offshore traffic risk index of any grid-unit water area comprises the following steps:
the standard intensity normalization processing of the sea traffic risk of different waters is defined as sea traffic risk index:
wherein: a, a j For the sea traffic risk index of the jth grid cell water area, max (a j ) For the maximum value of traffic risk intensity in the water of all grid cells, min (a j ) Is the minimum value of traffic risk intensity in the water of all grid cells.
9. The method for assessing the risk of sea traffic based on water meshing and index standardization of claim 8 characterized by determining a risk level corresponding to the mesh unit water based on the sea traffic risk index comprising:
determining a value of the traffic risk index;
determining an index interval in which the traffic risk index is located;
determining a risk grade corresponding to the regional block based on the index interval, and coloring the regional block according to a grade-identification color comparison table;
the index section comprises a first section, a second section, a third section, a fourth section and a fifth section, wherein the numerical range of the first section is more than 0.8 and less than or equal to 1.0, the numerical range of the second section is more than 0.6 and less than or equal to 0.8, the numerical range of the third section is more than 0.4 and less than or equal to 0.6, the numerical range of the fourth section is more than 0.2 and less than or equal to 0.4, and the numerical range of the fifth section is more than or equal to 0 and less than or equal to 0.2.
10. The method for assessing the risk of maritime traffic based on water meshing and index standardization of claim 9 wherein determining the risk class corresponding to the regional block based on the index section and coloring the regional block according to a class-identification color comparison table includes:
if the traffic risk index is in the first interval, the corresponding risk level is a first level, and the identification color corresponding to the first level is red;
if the traffic risk index is in the second interval, the corresponding risk level is a second level, and the identification color corresponding to the second level is orange;
if the traffic risk index is in the third interval, the corresponding risk level is a third level, and the identification color corresponding to the third level is yellow;
if the traffic risk index is in a fourth interval, the corresponding risk level is a fourth level, and the identification color corresponding to the fourth level is blue;
if the traffic risk index is in the fifth interval, the corresponding risk level is a fifth level, and the identification color corresponding to the fifth level is green;
the first-level risk level is sequentially higher than the second-level risk level, the third-level risk level, the fourth-level risk level and the fifth-level risk level.
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