CN116683440A - Hydropower station generating capacity prediction method and hydropower station generating capacity prediction equipment - Google Patents

Hydropower station generating capacity prediction method and hydropower station generating capacity prediction equipment Download PDF

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Publication number
CN116683440A
CN116683440A CN202310693715.9A CN202310693715A CN116683440A CN 116683440 A CN116683440 A CN 116683440A CN 202310693715 A CN202310693715 A CN 202310693715A CN 116683440 A CN116683440 A CN 116683440A
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CN
China
Prior art keywords
power generation
generation amount
predicted
rainfall
hydropower station
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Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
Pending
Application number
CN202310693715.9A
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Chinese (zh)
Inventor
苗帝
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North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power
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North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power
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Publication date
Application filed by North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power filed Critical North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power
Priority to CN202310693715.9A priority Critical patent/CN116683440A/en
Publication of CN116683440A publication Critical patent/CN116683440A/en
Pending legal-status Critical Current

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Classifications

    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
    • H02J3/004—Generation forecast, e.g. methods or systems for forecasting future energy generation
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
    • G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
    • G06Q10/0631—Resource planning, allocation, distributing or scheduling for enterprises or organisations
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00—Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/06—Electricity, gas or water supply
    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J13/00—Circuit arrangements for providing remote indication of network conditions, e.g. an instantaneous record of the open or closed condition of each circuitbreaker in the network; Circuit arrangements for providing remote control of switching means in a power distribution network, e.g. switching in and out of current consumers by using a pulse code signal carried by the network
    • H02J13/00001—Circuit arrangements for providing remote indication of network conditions, e.g. an instantaneous record of the open or closed condition of each circuitbreaker in the network; Circuit arrangements for providing remote control of switching means in a power distribution network, e.g. switching in and out of current consumers by using a pulse code signal carried by the network characterised by the display of information or by user interaction, e.g. supervisory control and data acquisition systems [SCADA] or graphical user interfaces [GUI]
    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J13/00—Circuit arrangements for providing remote indication of network conditions, e.g. an instantaneous record of the open or closed condition of each circuitbreaker in the network; Circuit arrangements for providing remote control of switching means in a power distribution network, e.g. switching in and out of current consumers by using a pulse code signal carried by the network
    • H02J13/00006—Circuit arrangements for providing remote indication of network conditions, e.g. an instantaneous record of the open or closed condition of each circuitbreaker in the network; Circuit arrangements for providing remote control of switching means in a power distribution network, e.g. switching in and out of current consumers by using a pulse code signal carried by the network characterised by information or instructions transport means between the monitoring, controlling or managing units and monitored, controlled or operated power network element or electrical equipment
    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
    • H02J3/38—Arrangements for parallely feeding a single network by two or more generators, converters or transformers
    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J2203/00—Indexing scheme relating to details of circuit arrangements for AC mains or AC distribution networks
    • H02J2203/20—Simulating, e g planning, reliability check, modelling or computer assisted design [CAD]
    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J2300/00—Systems for supplying or distributing electric power characterised by decentralized, dispersed, or local generation
    • H02J2300/20—The dispersed energy generation being of renewable origin
    • Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y04—INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
    • Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
    • Y04S10/00—Systems supporting electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
    • Y04S10/50—Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications

Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of hydropower station generating capacity prediction, and provides a hydropower station generating capacity prediction method and equipment, wherein the hydropower station generating capacity prediction method comprises the steps of inputting the daily weather, inputting hydropower station parameters when rainfall is not performed, calculating predicted generating capacity, inputting the daily predicted rainfall numerical value when rainfall is performed, obtaining the warehousing water flow when the historic rainfall is the same according to the historic data by a system, inputting the hydropower station parameters, calculating the predicted generating capacity, calculating a deviation factor according to a historic actual generating capacity curve and a historic predicted generating capacity curve, and calculating the actual predicted daily generating capacity; according to the invention, the predicted rainfall q is input to the input and output unit through the touch screen and the keys, and the data is transmitted to the central server unit by the touch screen and the keys, and the central server unit acquires the warehousing water flow M with the same history of rainfall from the storage unit according to the predicted rainfall q, so that the deviation of a predicted result caused by rainfall warehousing flow change can be reduced.

Description

Hydropower station generating capacity prediction method and hydropower station generating capacity prediction equipment
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of hydropower station power generation amount prediction, and particularly relates to a hydropower station power generation amount prediction method and hydropower station power generation amount prediction equipment.
Background
The hydropower station consists of a hydraulic system, a mechanical system, an electric energy generating device and the like, is a hydraulic junction project for converting water energy into electric energy, and the sustainability of electric energy production requires the water energy of the hydropower station to be utilized uninterruptedly. The hydraulic resource distribution in time and space is adjusted and changed artificially by building a hydropower station reservoir system, so that sustainable utilization of the hydraulic resource is realized. In order to effectively convert water energy in a reservoir into electric energy, a power generation amount needs to be predicted in a hydropower station, so that workers can correspondingly distribute the electric energy and adopt a standby scheme, and the continuity of power supply is ensured.
In chinese patent publication No. CN111126708A, a method and apparatus for predicting the power generation amount of a through-flow turbine are proposed, and the power generation amount of a hydropower station is predicted and calculated by first obtaining a prediction parameter for predicting the power generation amount of the through-flow turbine.
However, according to the invention, the rainfall and the non-rainfall are not separated when the parameter warehouse-in flow of the hydropower station is input, and the change of the numerical value of the warehouse-in flow is changed due to the change of the water flow caused by the rainfall, so that the deviation of the predicted power generation amount is influenced greatly.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the technical problems, the invention provides a hydropower station generating capacity prediction method and hydropower station generating capacity prediction equipment, so as to solve the problems.
A hydropower station generating capacity prediction method and equipment comprise
Inputting the day weather to the prediction device;
inputting hydropower station parameters when rainfall is not generated;
calculating a predicted power generation amount;
inputting a predicted rainfall value on the same day when rainfall occurs;
the system obtains the water flow rate of the warehouse entry when the histories are the same in rainfall according to the historic data;
inputting hydropower station parameters;
calculating a predicted power generation amount;
calculating a deviation factor according to the historical actual power generation amount curve and the historical predicted power generation amount curve;
and calculating the actual predicted daily power generation amount.
Preferably, when not raining, the input hydropower station parameters specifically comprise water flow Q of not raining warehouse entry, efficiency E of a water turbine, water flow L of leaving warehouse, efficiency F of a generator, gravity constant G and time T of power generation on the same day.
Preferably, the calculating the predicted power generation amount specifically includes calculating the predicted power generation amount as P, and calculating the predicted power generation amount as p=q×e×l×f×g×t.
Preferably, the input of the predicted rainfall value of the current day at the time of rainfall specifically includes a predicted rainfall q, and the rainfall q is acquired by, for example, a weather data center.
Preferably, the system specifically includes inputting the rainfall q into a prediction device according to the historical data to obtain the warehousing water flow M when the historical rainfall is the same, and inputting power station parameters, wherein the power station parameters are water turbine efficiency E, water outlet L, generator efficiency F, gravity constant G and power generation time T.
Preferably, the calculated predicted power generation amount specifically includes a predicted power generation amount P, where p=m×e×l×f×g×t.
Preferably, the calculating the deviation factor specifically includes: and comparing the historical predicted power generation amount curve with the corresponding historical actual power generation amount curve by the data center or the historical predicted power generation amount curve and calculating to obtain a deviation factor m between the historical predicted power generation amount and the corresponding historical actual power generation amount.
Preferably, the calculating the actual predicted daily power generation amount specifically includes an actual predicted daily power generation amount, where the actual predicted daily power generation amount is N, and n=p×m.
The utility model provides a hydropower station generated energy prediction's equipment, includes the organism, the inside fixed central server unit that is provided with of organism, the inside fixed input/output unit that is provided with of organism, input/output unit and central server unit electric wire electric connection, the inside fixed battery that is provided with of organism, the inside fixed storage unit that is provided with of organism, storage unit and central server unit electric wire electric connection.
Preferably, the touch screen is fixedly arranged on the front side of the machine body, a plurality of keys are fixedly arranged on the front side of the machine body, the loudspeaker is fixedly arranged on the front side of the machine body, the touch screen, the keys and the loudspeaker are electrically connected with the wires of the input and output units, and the central server unit, the input and output units, the storage unit touch screen, the keys and the loudspeaker are electrically connected with the wires of the storage battery.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
1. according to the invention, the predicted rainfall q is input to the input and output unit through the touch screen and the keys, data are transmitted to the central server unit by the touch screen and the key, the central server unit acquires the warehouse-in water flow M when the historic rainfall is the same to the storage unit according to the predicted rainfall q, then the hydropower station parameters, namely the water turbine efficiency E, the warehouse-out water flow L, the generator efficiency F, the gravity constant G and the power generation time T are input, the central server unit calculates the predicted power generation amount P by P=M×E, L×F×G×T, the central server unit acquires the historic predicted power generation amount data curve and the corresponding historic actual power generation amount data curve from the storage unit, calculates the deviation factor M, and then the actual predicted daily power generation amount N is calculated by N=P×m, so that the deviation of a predicted result caused by rainfall warehouse-in flow change can be reduced.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic view of the overall structure of the device of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic cross-sectional view of the apparatus of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a flow chart of the present invention.
In the figure:
101. a body; 102. a central server unit; 103. an input/output unit; 104. a storage battery; 105. a storage unit; 106. a touch screen; 107. a key; 108. and a speaker.
Detailed Description
Embodiments of the present invention are described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples. The following examples are illustrative of the invention but are not intended to limit the scope of the invention.
As shown in fig. 1 to 3:
embodiment one: the invention provides a hydropower station generating capacity prediction device, which comprises a machine body 101, wherein a central server unit 102 is fixedly arranged in the machine body 101, an input/output unit 103 is fixedly arranged in the machine body 101, the input/output unit 103 is electrically connected with the central server unit 102 through wires, a storage battery 104 is fixedly arranged in the machine body 101, a storage unit 105 is fixedly arranged in the machine body 101, and the storage unit 105 is electrically connected with the central server unit 102 through wires.
The touch screen 106 is fixedly arranged on the front side of the machine body 101, the keys 107 are fixedly arranged on the front side of the machine body 101, the loudspeaker 108 is fixedly arranged on the front side of the machine body 101, the touch screen 106, the keys 107 and the loudspeaker 108 are electrically connected with the electric wires of the input and output unit 103, and the central server unit 102, the input and output unit 103, the storage unit 105, the touch screen 106, the keys 107 and the loudspeaker 108 are electrically connected with the electric wires of the storage battery 104.
As is clear from the above, the central server unit 102 is used for processing, calculating and controlling the whole power generation amount prediction device, various parameters of power generation amount prediction of the power generation station are input through keys and the touch screen 106, the input/output unit 103 transmits the received parameters to the central server unit 102, the central server unit 102 simultaneously retrieves the history data through the storage unit 105, processes and calculates the data, the predicted power generation amount is transmitted to the input/output unit 103 and the storage unit 105 through the electric signal, the storage unit 105 stores the result, the input/output unit 103 displays the result on the touch screen 106, the speaker broadcasts the result 108, and the storage battery 104 provides power for the current prediction device circuit.
Embodiment two: the method comprises the steps of inputting weather when rainfall is not present, inputting hydropower station parameters to a prediction device, calculating predicted power generation amount, and inputting the hydropower station parameters when the rainfall is not present, wherein the input hydropower station parameters specifically comprise water flow Q of the non-rainfall warehouse entry, efficiency E of a water turbine, water flow L of the water outlet of the water turbine, efficiency F of a generator, gravity constant G and time T of power generation on the same day.
The calculating of the predicted power generation amount specifically includes the predicted power generation amount P, and the predicted power generation amount p=q×e×l×f×g×t.
And comparing the historical predicted power generation amount curve with the corresponding historical actual power generation amount curve by the data center or the historical predicted power generation amount curve and calculating to obtain a deviation factor m between the historical predicted power generation amount and the corresponding historical actual power generation amount.
The calculating of the actual predicted daily power generation amount specifically includes the actual predicted daily power generation amount, and the actual predicted daily power generation amount is N, n=p×m.
As can be seen from the above, when there is no rainfall on the day, hydropower station generating parameters are input to the input/output center 103 through the touch screen 106 and the key 107 and transmitted to the central server unit 102, the hydropower station generating parameters are the water flow Q without rainfall, the efficiency E of the water turbine, the water flow L leaving the warehouse, the efficiency F of the generator, the gravity constant G and the time T of generating electricity on the day, the central server unit 102 calculates the predicted generating capacity as P through p=q×e×l×f×g×t, the central server unit 102 obtains the historical predicted generating capacity data curve and the corresponding historical actual generating capacity data curve from the storage unit, calculates the deviation factor m, and calculates the actual predicted daily generating capacity N through n=p×m.
Embodiment III: in a third embodiment of the invention, the predicted rainfall value of the day is input when rainfall occurs;
the system obtains the water flow rate of the warehouse entry when the histories are the same in rainfall according to the historic data;
inputting hydropower station parameters;
calculating a predicted power generation amount;
calculating a deviation factor according to the historical actual power generation amount curve and the historical predicted power generation amount curve;
the actual predicted daily power generation amount is calculated, and at the time of rainfall, the input of the predicted daily rainfall value specifically includes the predicted rainfall q, and the rainfall q is acquired by, for example, a weather data center.
The system acquires the water flow rate of the warehouse-in water when the historic rainfall is the same according to the historic data, specifically comprises the steps of inputting the rainfall q into a prediction device, acquiring the water flow rate M of the warehouse-in water when the historic rainfall is the same according to the system data, and inputting power station parameters, wherein the power station parameters are water turbine efficiency E, water outlet quantity L, generator efficiency F, gravity constant G and power generation time T.
The calculation of the predicted power generation amount specifically includes the predicted power generation amount P, where p=m×e×l×f×g×t.
The calculating of the deviation factor specifically includes: and comparing the historical predicted power generation amount curve with the corresponding historical actual power generation amount curve by the data center or the historical predicted power generation amount curve and calculating to obtain a deviation factor m between the historical predicted power generation amount and the corresponding historical actual power generation amount.
The calculating of the actual predicted daily power generation amount specifically includes the actual predicted daily power generation amount, and the actual predicted daily power generation amount is N, n=p×m.
As can be seen from the above, during rainfall, the predicted rainfall q is input to the input/output unit 103 through the touch screen 106 and the key 107, and the data is transmitted to the central server unit 102, the central server unit 102 obtains the warehousing water flow M when the historic rainfall is the same from the storage unit according to the predicted rainfall q, and then inputs the hydropower station parameters, that is, the hydraulic turbine efficiency E, the water output L, the generator efficiency F, the gravity constant G and the power generation time T, the central server unit 102 calculates the predicted power generation amount P through p=m×e×l×f×g×t, and then the central server unit 102 obtains the historic predicted power generation amount data curve and the corresponding historic actual power generation amount data curve from the storage unit, calculates the deviation factor M, and then calculates the actual predicted daily power generation amount N from n=p×m, so as to reduce the deviation of the prediction result caused by the rainfall warehousing flow change.
While embodiments of the present invention have been shown and described above for purposes of illustration and description, it will be understood that the above embodiments are illustrative and not to be construed as limiting the invention, and that variations, modifications, alternatives, and variations may be made to the above embodiments by one of ordinary skill in the art within the scope of the invention.

Claims (10)

1. A hydropower station generating capacity prediction method is characterized by comprising the following steps of: comprising
Inputting the day weather to the prediction device;
inputting hydropower station parameters when rainfall is not generated;
calculating a predicted power generation amount;
inputting a predicted rainfall value on the same day when rainfall occurs;
the system obtains the water flow rate of the warehouse entry when the histories are the same in rainfall according to the historic data;
inputting hydropower station parameters;
calculating a predicted power generation amount;
calculating a deviation factor according to the historical actual power generation amount curve and the historical predicted power generation amount curve;
and calculating the actual predicted daily power generation amount.
2. The hydropower station power generation amount prediction method as claimed in claim 1, wherein: when the rainfall is not present, the input hydropower station parameters specifically comprise the water flow Q of the rainfall which is not present, the efficiency E of the water turbine, the water flow L of the water turbine which is present, the efficiency F of the generator, the gravity constant G and the time T of the power generation on the same day.
3. A hydropower station power generation amount prediction method as claimed in claim 2, wherein: the calculating the predicted power generation amount specifically includes that the predicted power generation amount is P, and the predicted power generation amount is p=q×e×l×f×g×t.
4. The hydropower station power generation amount prediction method as claimed in claim 1, wherein: the input of the predicted rainfall value of the current day at the time of rainfall specifically includes the predicted rainfall q, and the rainfall q is acquired by, for example, a weather data center.
5. The hydropower station generating capacity prediction method according to claim 4, wherein: the system specifically comprises the steps of inputting the rainfall q into a prediction device, acquiring the warehousing water flow M with the same historical rainfall according to the system data, and inputting power station parameters, wherein the power station parameters are water turbine efficiency E, warehouse-out water quantity L, generator efficiency F, gravity constant G and power generation time T.
6. The hydropower station generating capacity prediction method according to claim 5, wherein: the calculated predicted power generation amount specifically includes a predicted power generation amount P, where p=m×e×l×f×g×t.
7. The hydropower station generating capacity prediction method as claimed in claim 6, wherein: the calculating the deviation factor specifically comprises: and comparing the historical predicted power generation amount curve with the corresponding historical actual power generation amount curve by the data center or the historical predicted power generation amount curve and calculating to obtain a deviation factor m between the historical predicted power generation amount and the corresponding historical actual power generation amount.
8. The hydropower station power generation amount prediction method as claimed in claim 7, wherein: the calculating of the actual predicted daily power generation amount specifically includes an actual predicted daily power generation amount, wherein the actual predicted daily power generation amount is N, and n=p×m.
9. An apparatus for hydropower station power generation prediction according to claims 1-8, characterized in that: including organism (101), the inside fixed central server unit (102) that is provided with of organism (101), the inside fixed input output unit (103) that is provided with of organism (101), input output unit (103) and central server unit (102) electric wire electric connection, the inside fixed battery (104) that is provided with of organism (101), the inside fixed storage unit (105) that is provided with of organism (101), storage unit (105) and central server unit (102) electric wire electric connection.
10. The hydropower station power generation predicting device according to claim 9, wherein: the mobile phone comprises a machine body (101), wherein a touch screen (106) is fixedly arranged on the front side of the machine body (101), a plurality of keys (107) are fixedly arranged on the front side of the machine body (101), a loudspeaker (108) is fixedly arranged on the front side of the machine body (101), the touch screen (106), the keys (107) and the loudspeaker (108) are electrically connected with an input and output unit (103) through wires, and the central server unit (102), the input and output unit (103), a storage unit (105), the touch screen (106), the keys (107) and the loudspeaker (108) are electrically connected with a storage battery (104) through wires.
CN202310693715.9A 2023-06-13 2023-06-13 Hydropower station generating capacity prediction method and hydropower station generating capacity prediction equipment Pending CN116683440A (en)

Priority Applications (1)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
CN202310693715.9A CN116683440A (en) 2023-06-13 2023-06-13 Hydropower station generating capacity prediction method and hydropower station generating capacity prediction equipment

Applications Claiming Priority (1)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
CN202310693715.9A CN116683440A (en) 2023-06-13 2023-06-13 Hydropower station generating capacity prediction method and hydropower station generating capacity prediction equipment

Publications (1)

Publication Number Publication Date
CN116683440A true CN116683440A (en) 2023-09-01

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