CN116681212A - Urban group county scale vegetation carbon fixation driving contribution analysis method and system - Google Patents

Urban group county scale vegetation carbon fixation driving contribution analysis method and system Download PDF

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CN116681212A
CN116681212A CN202310698825.4A CN202310698825A CN116681212A CN 116681212 A CN116681212 A CN 116681212A CN 202310698825 A CN202310698825 A CN 202310698825A CN 116681212 A CN116681212 A CN 116681212A
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马伟波
李海东
姚国慧
赵立君
雷少刚
刘臣炜
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Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences MEE
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Abstract

The invention discloses a method and a system for analyzing driving contribution of carbon fixation of urban group county scale vegetation, and relates to the technical field of ecological environment science. Acquiring data based on vegetation carbon fixation and driving variables, wherein the data comprise vegetation net primary productivity NPP and driving variables; calculating the carbon sequestration amount of land vegetation in the county scale of the city group through the vegetation net primary productivity NPP; constructing a relation model between vegetation carbon fixation amount and a plurality of driving variables by utilizing an attribution analysis framework; calculating the relation model to obtain the relative contribution value of each driving variable to the change of the carbon fixation amount of the vegetation in each county; determining dominant driving factors of vegetation carbon variation according to the relative contribution values; and generating a city group county scale vegetation carbon fixation amount driving contribution report according to the dominant driving factors. The invention can provide scientific and technological support for developing a natural solution-based 'double-carbon' policy in county scale of a rapid urbanization area.

Description

Urban group county scale vegetation carbon fixation driving contribution analysis method and system
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of ecological environment science, in particular to a method and a system for analyzing driving contribution of carbon fixation amount of urban group county scale vegetation.
Background
The terrestrial ecosystem is a huge carbon sink and plays an important role in global carbon balance. The carbon sink function of the land ecological system can be consolidated and improved, so that the carbon-to-carbon neutralization (double carbon for short) target can be effectively supported.
The influence of human activities on the carbon sink of the ecological system is complex, on one hand, the global ecological system is seriously degraded due to the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization, and the carbon sink function is reduced; on the other hand, implementation of ecological restoration projects such as returning forests, afforestation and the like makes an important contribution to improving the degenerated ecological system and enhancing the carbon reserves. Research has confirmed that CO 2 The increase in concentration can accelerate the photosynthetic rate, thereby improving vegetation productivity, i.e., CO 2 The fertilization effect increases the carbon sink function of the land ecological system;
however, in the prior art, the ecosystem carbon sink responds to CO 2 Concentration is not a monotonically increasing process, and global CO 2 The fertilizing effect shows a significant trend in the last forty years. Meanwhile, the climate change changes the hydrothermal and radiation conditions of the ecological system, the turnover time of carbon in the land ecological system can be shortened, and more uncertainty can be added to the driving effect of the carbon fixation amount of vegetation. Such as in tropical areas, increased air temperature and reduced precipitation lead to forest death and increased carbon emissions; in the middle and high latitude areas, the temperature rise can prolong the vegetation growth period, so that more carbon dioxide is absorbed. Thus, climate change afforests and carbon sink function of the original land ecosystemIs complex. Nitrogen sedimentation is also an important measure of land ecosystem conditions, and changes in the nitrogen sedimentation are indicative of or drive changes in carbon sink function. Thus, climate change and CO are distinguished at finer scales 2 The concentration rise, the human activities (including ecological engineering and socioeconomic development) and the nitrogen sedimentation are of great importance to the driving contribution of the carbon sequestration amount of vegetation, which is helpful for determining the strength of ecological restoration projects and improving the carbon sequestration efficiency of ecological engineering. Meanwhile, with the implementation of the strategy of reducing emission of greenhouse gases in China from top to bottom, more microscopic regional differences should be considered. Compared with provincial and municipal levels, the county-level carbon fixation amount of the vegetation can reflect the space-time heterogeneity of the area more carefully, analyze county-level carbon fixation amount driving variables and dominant factors, and support the establishment of ecological protection restoration policies which are more in line with the climate change conditions of the area. Therefore, in the prior art, the driving contribution and dominant factors of the carbon fixation amount influencing factors of the land ecosystem in the rapid urban area are not identified, are not fully analyzed on finer scales, influence the analysis accuracy, and limit the scientific understanding of the urban ecosystem and the scientific implementation of urban ecological protection policy measures such as urban updating, novel urban ecological protection policy measures and the like.
Therefore, it is a problem of the present invention to provide a method and a system for analyzing the carbon sequestration driving contribution of urban mass-county scale vegetation.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above, the invention provides a method and a system for analyzing the carbon fixation driving contribution of urban-group-county-scale vegetation, which analyze the artificial activity and CO through first-order partial-conduction attribution on based on the characteristics of the carbon fixation space-time evolution of the urban-group-county-scale vegetation 2 The driving contribution of 4 indexes of fertilization, climate change and nitrogen sedimentation to the carbon sequestration change trend of vegetation is disclosed accurately, so that a driving mechanism of carbon sequestration of vegetation in the area is revealed accurately, and references are provided for making a positive and reasonable 'double carbon' policy based on a natural solution so as to solve the problems in the background technology.
In order to achieve the above purpose, the present invention adopts the following technical scheme:
a city group county scale vegetation carbon fixation driving contribution analysis method specifically comprises the following steps:
acquiring data, the data comprising vegetation net primary productivity NPP and driving variables;
calculating the carbon sequestration amount of land vegetation in the county scale of the city group through the vegetation net primary productivity NPP;
constructing a relation model between the vegetation carbon sequestration amount and a plurality of driving variables by utilizing an attribution analysis framework;
calculating the relation model to obtain the relative contribution value of each driving variable to the change of the carbon fixation amount of the vegetation in each county;
determining dominant driving factors of vegetation carbon variation according to the relative contribution values;
and generating a city group county scale vegetation carbon fixation driving contribution report according to the dominant driving factors.
Preferably, the specific formula for calculating the carbon sequestration amount of the vegetation in the county scale of the city group through the vegetation net primary productivity NPP is as follows:
W CO2 ＝N×2.2×1.63；
W C ＝W CO2 ×0.27；
in which W is CO2 CO representing vegetation fixation per unit area in a certain period of time 2 The unit is g.m -2 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the N represents vegetation NPP of unit area in a certain time period, and the unit is g.m -2 ；W C Represents the carbon fixation amount of vegetation per unit area in a certain time period, and the unit is g.m -2 。
Preferably, the driving variables include: population density, climate change, CO 2 Concentration and nitrogen sedimentation.
Preferably, the relationship model is:
CS＝f(POP，NTL，AAF，POG，POW，TP，TEM，SSRD，SP，CO 2 ，WAN，DAN)；
wherein CS represents carbon sequestration amount of land vegetation, POP represents population density, NTL represents precipitation amount, AAF represents accumulated forestation area, POG represents urban green space area ratio, and POW tableThe urban wetland area ratio is shown, TP represents rainfall, TEM represents instantaneous 2m surface air temperature, SSRD represents surface solar downward radiation, SP represents atmospheric pressure and CO 2 Representing atmospheric CO 2 The concentration, DAN, represents dry settling of atmospheric inorganic nitrogen and WAN represents wet settling of atmospheric inorganic nitrogen.
Preferably, calculating the relation model includes: according to the relation model, a linear relation exists between the preset vegetation carbon fixation amount and the driving variable, and a first-order partial derivative equation is deduced as follows:
wherein, in the formula, wherein, each county area CS, POP, NTL, AAF, POG, POW, TP, TEM, SSRD, SP, CO of the city group 2 The annual slope of WAN, DAN;
respectively POP, NTL, AAF, POG, POW, TP, TEM, SSRD, SP, CO 2 Ridge regression coefficient of WAN, DAN, where the absolute change in carbon sequestration CS of the terrestrial vegetation is POP, NTL, AAF, POG, POW, TP, TEM, SSRD, SP, CO 2 Sum of absolute variation of WAN, DAN and residual epsilon.
Preferably, the population density, climate change and CO of each county of the city group are calculated 2 The contribution of concentration and nitrogen sedimentation to the change of carbon fixation amount of the vegetation in the county is as follows:
slope CS＝HUMAN+CLIMATE+CO 2 +N；
wherein R is HUM 、R CLI 、RN represents population density, climate change and CO 2 The relative contribution of concentration and nitrogen sedimentation to the change in carbon sequestration CS of land vegetation is in%.
Preferably, the determining the vegetation carbon variation dominant driving factor according to the relative contribution value includes:
analyzing contribution characteristics of driving factors according to absolute values of relative contribution values of each driving variable to the change of the carbon sequestration amount of the vegetation in the county;
and determining vegetation carbon variation dominant driving factors according to the driving factor contribution characteristics.
Preferably, the generating a city group county scale vegetation carbon sequestration driving contribution report according to the dominant driving factor includes:
and analyzing the vegetation carbon fixation amount change and the reason according to the dominant driving factors, making a systematic urban ecological function improvement strategy, and generating and outputting a city group county level scale vegetation carbon fixation amount driving contribution report.
On the other hand, the invention also provides a city group county scale vegetation carbon fixation driving contribution analysis system, which comprises:
the system comprises an acquisition module, a control module and a control module, wherein the acquisition module is used for acquiring data, and the data comprise vegetation net primary productivity NPP and driving variables;
the calculation module is connected with the acquisition module and is used for calculating the land vegetation carbon fixation quantity of the city group county scale through the vegetation net primary productivity NPP;
the construction module is connected with the calculation and is used for constructing a relation model between the vegetation carbon sequestration quantity and a plurality of driving variables by utilizing an attribution analysis framework;
the processing module is connected with the construction module and is used for calculating the relation model to obtain the relative contribution value of each driving variable to the change of the carbon sequestration amount of the vegetation in each county;
the analysis module is connected with the processing module and is used for determining vegetation carbon change dominant driving factors according to the relative contribution values;
and the output module is connected with the analysis module and is used for generating a city group county scale vegetation carbon fixation quantity driving contribution report according to the dominant driving factors.
Compared with the prior art, the invention discloses a method and a system for analyzing the carbon fixation driving contribution of urban group-county scale vegetation, and establishes population density, climate change and CO 2 The driving contribution of 4 aspects to the vegetation carbon fixation amount change trend is analyzed through the first-order partial derivative attribution, the driving mechanism of the vegetation carbon sink in the area is further disclosed, the contribution rate of different driving variables to the vegetation carbon fixation amount is obtained, the vegetation carbon fixation amount change dominant driving factor is further determined, and the accuracy of the driving contribution analysis is improved. Meanwhile, the vegetation carbon fixation amount change and the reason are analyzed according to the dominant driving factors, a systematic urban ecological function promotion strategy is formulated, and a city group county level scale vegetation carbon fixation amount driving contribution report is generated and output. Further provides effective basis for researching carbon fixation driving contribution of urban group county scale vegetation, and provides effective reference for developing a positive and reasonable 'double carbon' policy based on natural solution.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings that are required to be used in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only embodiments of the present invention, and that other drawings can be obtained according to the provided drawings without inventive effort for a person skilled in the art.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the method of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a fitting scatter plot of a CS variation model of a long triangular city group county;
fig. 3 is a system configuration diagram of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The following description of the embodiments of the present invention will be made clearly and completely with reference to the accompanying drawings, in which it is apparent that the embodiments described are only some embodiments of the present invention, but not all embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be made by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the invention without making any inventive effort, are intended to be within the scope of the invention.
The embodiment of the invention discloses a city group county scale vegetation carbon fixation driving contribution analysis method, which is shown in fig. 1 and specifically comprises the following steps:
acquiring data, wherein the data comprise vegetation net primary productivity NPP and driving variables;
calculating the carbon sequestration amount of land vegetation in the county scale of the city group through the vegetation net primary productivity NPP;
constructing a relation model between vegetation carbon fixation amount and a plurality of driving variables by utilizing an attribution analysis framework;
calculating the relation model to obtain the relative contribution value of each driving variable to the change of the carbon fixation amount of the vegetation in each county;
determining dominant driving factors of vegetation carbon variation according to the relative contribution values;
and generating a city group county scale vegetation carbon fixation amount driving contribution report according to the dominant driving factors.
Specifically, in this embodiment, the long triangular city group is taken as a research object, and the method of the invention is used for analyzing the carbon fixation driving contribution of the vegetation in the county scale of the long triangular city group.
In particular, the study data fall into two categories: net primary throughput (Net Primary Production, NPP) data and CS drive data, specific information is given in table 1.NPP data is from The Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center (LP DAAC), version MOD17A3 hgf.061, with a spatial resolution of 500m, and is mainly used to account for the carbon sequestration of terrestrial ecosystems. CS-driven data including climate change, human activity, CO 2 Concentration, nitrogen sedimentation, and the like.
TABLE 1 Long triangle city group CS and drive data therefor
In Table 1, CS, POP, NTL, AAF, POG, POW, TP, TEM, SSRD, SP, CO 2 DAN and WAN represent the carbon fixation amount, population density, night light index, accumulated afforestation area, green area ratio, wet area ratio, rainfall, near-surface air temperature, surface solar downward radiation, atmospheric pressure and air environment CO 2 Concentration, dry sedimentation of atmospheric inorganic nitrogen and wet sedimentation of atmospheric inorganic nitrogen.
In one embodiment, the chemical equation for photosynthesis of green plants:it is known that vegetation can fix 1.63kg CO per 1.00kg dry matter produced 2 And 1kg CO 2 Contains 0.27kg of carbon element.
And the relation between dry matter generated by vegetation photosynthesis and NPP in a fixed period is 2.2 times, and the county scale CS of the long triangle city group can be obtained by estimating the NPP:
W CO2 ＝N×2.2×1.63 (1)
W C ＝W CO2 ×0.27 (2)
in which W is CO2 CO representing vegetation fixation per unit area in a certain period of time 2 The unit is g.m -2 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the N represents vegetation NPP of unit area in a certain time period, and the unit is g.m -2 ；W C Represents the carbon fixation amount of vegetation per unit area in a certain time period, and the unit is g.m -2 . In order to verify the accuracy of vegetation carbon sequestration estimation, matching and checking the 2001-2017 vegetation carbon sequestration data in 2001-2020 time scale and the Chinese county scale land vegetation carbon sequestration data issued by Chinese carbon accounting database (CEADs), R 2 The average RMSE ratio was 0.98 and 3.86%, indicating that the CS estimation result of the present invention is highly reliable.
In the embodiment, a relation model between vegetation carbon fixation amount and a plurality of driving variables is constructed by utilizing an attribution analysis framework; calculating the relation model to obtain the relative contribution value of each driving variable to the change of the carbon fixation amount of the vegetation in each county; the specific implementation process is described as follows:
to estimate HUMAN activity (HUMAN), CLIMATE Change (CLIMATE), CO 2 Concentration increase (CO) 2 ) And the effect of nitrogen sedimentation (N) on the change in Carbon Sequestration (CS) of land vegetation, the relationship between CS and driving variables is described using an attribution analysis framework:
CS＝f(POP，NTL，AAF，POG，POW，TP，TEM，SSRD，SP，CO 2 ，WAN，DAN) (3)
wherein CS represents carbon sequestration amount of land vegetation, POP represents population density, NTL represents precipitation amount, AAF represents accumulated forestation area, POG represents urban green space area ratio, POW represents urban wetland area ratio, TP represents precipitation amount, TEM represents instantaneous 2m earth surface air temperature, SSRD represents earth surface solar downward radiation, SP represents atmospheric pressure, CO 2 Representing atmospheric CO 2 The concentration, DAN, represents dry settling of atmospheric inorganic nitrogen and WAN represents wet settling of atmospheric inorganic nitrogen. Assuming a linear relationship between CS and the driving variable, first orderThe partial derivative equation is derived as follows:
wherein, the liquid crystal display device comprises a liquid crystal display device, each county area CS, POP, NTL, AAF, POG, POW, TP, TEM, SSRD, SP, CO of the 2001-2020 long triangle city group is respectively shown 2 The annual slope of WAN, DAN, where this embodiment represents the slope by calculating Sen's slope; /> Respectively POP, NTL, AAF, POG, POW, TP, TEM, SSRD, SP, CO 2 WAN, DAN, the embodiment realizes the selection of ridge regression lambda value and model training verification through R language. The absolute changes of CS are POP, NTL, AAF, POG, POW, TP, TEM, SSRD, SP, CO 2 Sum of absolute variation of WAN, DAN and residual epsilon. Each county region HUMAN, CLIMATE, CO 2 The relative contributions of N to the county CS variation are:
slope CS＝HUMAN+CLIMATE+CO 2 +N (6)
wherein R is HUM 、R CLI 、R N Respectively HUMAN, CLIMATE, CO 2 And the relative contribution of N to CS change in%.
In the embodiment, on the basis of the space-time evolution characteristics of the carbon fixation amount of the city group county scale vegetation, the artificial activity and CO are explored by a first-order partial derivative attribution analysis method 2 The driving contribution of 4 indexes of fertilization, climate change and nitrogen sedimentation to the carbon sequestration change trend of vegetation is disclosed comprehensively so as to disclose the driving mechanism of vegetation carbon sink in the area.
By the method, the driving contribution value of each driving variable in a certain stage is calculated, and in order to more accurately analyze the driving contribution of the carbon sequestration amount of the vegetation in the county scale of the city group, the dominant factor which affects the carbon sequestration amount of the vegetation, wherein the dominant factor of the maximum relative contribution rate is obtained according to the driving contribution value of each driving variable in different time periods.
In an embodiment, the specific implementation process of determining the dominant driving factor of the vegetation carbon variation according to the relative contribution value is as follows:
prior to the attribution analysis, the accuracy in fitting CS trend was tested by equation (5), and the ridge regression model performed optimally at lambda of 12.51. As shown in FIG. 2, the simulated CS Sen's slope of 12 driving variables has a significant linear relationship with the measured CS Sen's slope of 202 counties (p<1×10 -4 )，R 2 The reliability of the established model is higher as shown by 0.67, and the attribution analysis framework is suitable for CS change analysis of the county domain of the long triangle city group。
The relative contributions of the 12 driving variables to CS changes in 2001-2020 were estimated using equations (6) - (10). Although no single one of the 12 drivers is totally positive or negative for all county-domain CS changes, the effect of spatial heterogeneity of the drivers is significant and some drivers are driven very widely in some regions, indicating the complexity of the urban region CS driving.
In one embodiment, the driving factor contribution characteristic is analyzed according to the absolute value of the relative contribution value of each driving variable to the county vegetation carbon sequestration amount change;
and determining vegetation carbon variation dominant driving factors according to the driving factor contribution characteristics.
Specifically, the driving factor with the largest relative contribution rate is determined as the dominant factor of CS change.
In a specific embodiment, generating a city group county scale vegetation carbon sequestration driving contribution report based on the dominant driving factor comprises:
and analyzing the vegetation carbon fixation amount change and the reason according to the dominant driving factors, making a systematic urban ecological function improvement strategy, and generating and outputting a city group county level scale vegetation carbon fixation amount driving contribution report.
Specifically, the result analysis is:
vegetation carbon fixation amount and driving factor change space-time characteristics:
1. carbon fixation amount of vegetation
2001-2020, triangle city group county CS highest value interval (5.54,9.59)]×10 7 Mainly include Chun 'an county of Zhejiang, yongjia county of Lin' an region and Dong to county of Anhui, the next highest value interval (3.37,5.54)]×10 7 t is mainly distributed in mountain area and Suzhejie county area, and the lowest value interval (0,0.89)]X 10t is mainly distributed in various urban jurisdictions. From time change, CS has a weak tendency to increase overall, reaching 530.96 ×10 in 2014 at the highest 7 t, minimum 464.79 ×10 in 2005 7 t。
Statistics show that the 2001-2020 long triangle city group has 156 county regions CS with a rising rate of 77.23%,46 county regions CS fall off by 22.77%; wherein CS is increased by 13.10X10 in Anhui province 7 t, jiangsu province rise by 12.16X10 7 t, zhejiang province rise by 0.58×10 7 t, shanghai city drop 0.26×10 7 t. Whereas the Pingyan county CS was 261.85 ×10 from 2001 7 t has increased to 285.39 ×10 in 2020 7 t, increase by 23.54×10 7 t is; mountain county CS was 228.15 ×10 from 2001 7 t drops to 230.39 ×10 in 2020 7 t, slightly increased.
From a spatial perspective, CS changes represent a significant increase in the northwest plain county and a decrease in the southeast county space-time characteristic. The CS change hot spot and cold spot areas have obvious aggregation characteristics and are consistent with the pattern of Sen's slope, and the hot spot area with 99% confidence degree mainly comprises Jiangsu province coast county, dafeng district, dongtai city, ting lake district, zhuanyang county, xianshui county, fengyang county, yuexi county, taihu county, ningguo city, langxi county, guangde city, zhejiang province Changxing county and Anji county, and 14 county regions in total; the cold spot area with the confidence of over 95 percent mainly comprises Leqing city and Yuyao city in Zhejiang area and the continuous area with high degree of city between Jiangsu nan and Shanghai in Zhejiang province, including 20 county areas such as Qing Pu district and Leqing city.
2. Vegetation carbon fixation driving factor
In terms of artificial activities, population density in the north of su and the east of wan in 2001-2020 tends to decrease, while population density in developed cities with rapid increase of night lights such as Shanghai, nanjing, suzhou, hangzhou, hefei, wenzhou and Ningbo tends to increase rapidly, which shows the characteristics of economy and high population density in highly urban areas. In addition to the main urban area with limited space in extremely individual cities, most county areas of long triangles develop tree planting projects, wherein the accumulated trend of developing tree planting projects in most areas of Anhui and Jiangsu is higher than that of Shanghai and Zhejiang, and the accumulated trend is generally increased from the main urban area to the peripheral county areas AAF. From the aspect of land utilization structure, the number of county regions in which the green land of the long triangular city group is increased in 2001-2020 is 7, and the green descending amplitude of other county regions respectively shows the situation of decreasing from a main urban area to a peripheral county region and from coastal to inland; while wetlands in Anhui, jiangsu and Zhejiang North regions show a large-scale increasing trend.
The spatial characteristics of the driving factors in terms of climate change are greatly different. The rainfall is obviously different in the areas of Zhejiang and Zhejiang, and Zhejiang tends to drought and Zhejiang is opposite; the trend of temperature increase shows a space pattern of decreasing coastal inland; the downward radiation of the earth's surface sun is downward trend, namely the radiation of the long triangular city group is darkened, and gradually trend is slowed down outwards in the north of Zhejiang; the air pressure in most areas is in an increasing situation, and particularly the air pressure in the north area of the long triangular city group has a higher increasing trend. Overall, the entire long triangulated urban mass region underwent significant climate change and exhibited a tendency to humidify, heat up, darken, boost, and at the same time, spatial variability was significant in 2001-2020.
2001-2020 long triangle city group area CO 2 The concentration is in an ascending trend consistent with the global general trend, but the space pattern of the adjacent areas of the Shanghai, zhejiang, is gradually decreased outwards in space, which is related to the fact that the highly urban areas are typical carbon sources. The spatial characteristics of the atmospheric inorganic nitrogen dry sedimentation and the wet sedimentation are also very remarkable, the inorganic nitrogen dry sedimentation gradually increases to the peripheral county area while descending in the urban main urban area, the inorganic nitrogen wet sedimentation increases gradually decreases outwards from the center area of the long triangle urban area, and the inorganic nitrogen wet sedimentation tends to decrease in the western Anhui area.
In a specific embodiment, through the above technical solution of the present invention, the following conclusion is reached: nitrogen sedimentation is in a positive driving relationship for the vast majority of county CS increases, and has become the dominant factor in 5 county CS increases in long triangulated urban populations, which driving effect may be further enhanced with future nitrogen sedimentation further increases.
According to the technical scheme, the driving contribution and dominant factors of the carbon fixation amount influence factors of the land ecological system in the rapid urban area are well identified, the full analysis on finer scales is facilitated, the accuracy of the analysis is improved, and a good foundation can be laid for scientific understanding of the urban ecological system and scientific implementation of urban ecological protection policy measures such as urban updating and novel urban ecological protection policy measures.
In another aspect, a system for analyzing driving contribution of carbon sequestration amount of urban mass-county scale vegetation is provided, as shown in fig. 3, including:
the acquisition module is used for acquiring data, wherein the data comprise vegetation net primary productivity NPP and driving variables;
the calculation module is connected with the acquisition module and is used for calculating the land vegetation carbon fixation quantity of the city group county scale through the vegetation net primary productivity NPP;
the construction module is connected with the calculation and is used for constructing a relation model between the vegetation carbon sequestration quantity and a plurality of driving variables by utilizing an attribution analysis framework;
the processing module is connected with the construction module and is used for calculating the relation model to obtain the relative contribution value of each driving variable to the change of the carbon sequestration amount of the vegetation in each county;
the analysis module is connected with the processing module and is used for determining vegetation carbon change dominant driving factors according to the relative contribution values;
and the output module is connected with the analysis module and is used for generating a city group county scale vegetation carbon fixation quantity driving contribution report according to the dominant driving factors.
For the system device disclosed in the embodiment, since the system device corresponds to the method disclosed in the embodiment, the description is relatively simple, and the relevant points refer to the description of the method section.
The embodiment researches the human activities, climate change and CO through a first-order partial derivative attribution analysis method on the basis of analyzing the carbon fixation amount space-time characteristics of the county scale vegetation of the long triangle city group in 2001-2020 2 A total of 12 indexes of concentration rise and nitrogen settlement drive contribution and dominant factors to vegetation carbon sequestration change. The results show that: (1) the overall carbon sequestration amount of vegetation in the long triangle city group in 2001-2020 is in a weak increasing trend, and the carbon sequestration amount change shows the space-time characteristics that the county of the plain in the northwest part is obviously increased and the county in the southeast part is reduced; (2) evaluation index R 2 The reliability of the established attribution analysis model is higher as shown by 0.67, and meanwhile, the contribution space heterogeneous effect of 12 influencing factors to the vegetation carbon fixation driving is obvious; (3) human activity, climate change, CO 2 Concentration elevation and nitrogen sedimentation are the dominant factors in the variation of carbon sequestration of 124, 70, 3 and 5 county vegetation, respectively. Proposal: (1) the urban landscape function and the carbon sink service capability are systematically improved by improving the biological diversity level of different greenbelts of the city and integrating and crushing urban greenbelts; (2) carefully selecting a forestation position to effectively reduce the influence of forestation land expansion on the erosion of a wetland ecosystem; (3) in the urban updating process, urban ecological infrastructure construction is enhanced, and differential policy measures are formulated based on natural solutions and county vegetation carbon fixation quantity dominant factors so as to enhance urban climate adaptability.
In the present specification, each embodiment is described in a progressive manner, and each embodiment is mainly described in a different point from other embodiments, and identical and similar parts between the embodiments are all enough to refer to each other. For the device disclosed in the embodiment, since it corresponds to the method disclosed in the embodiment, the description is relatively simple, and the relevant points refer to the description of the method section.
The previous description of the disclosed embodiments is provided to enable any person skilled in the art to make or use the present invention. Various modifications to these embodiments will be readily apparent to those skilled in the art, and the generic principles defined herein may be applied to other embodiments without departing from the spirit or scope of the invention. Thus, the present invention is not intended to be limited to the embodiments shown herein but is to be accorded the widest scope consistent with the principles and novel features disclosed herein.

Claims (9)

1. A city group county scale vegetation carbon fixation driving contribution analysis method is characterized by comprising the following specific steps:
acquiring data, the data comprising vegetation net primary productivity NPP and driving variables;
calculating the carbon sequestration amount of land vegetation in the county scale of the city group through the vegetation net primary productivity NPP;
constructing a relation model between the vegetation carbon sequestration amount and a plurality of driving variables by utilizing an attribution analysis framework;
calculating the relation model to obtain the relative contribution value of each driving variable to the change of the carbon fixation amount of the vegetation in each county;
determining dominant driving factors of vegetation carbon variation according to the relative contribution values;
and generating a city group county scale vegetation carbon fixation driving contribution report according to the dominant driving factors.
2. The method for analyzing the driving contribution of carbon sequestration of urban-group-county-scale vegetation according to claim 1, wherein the specific formula for calculating the carbon sequestration of urban-group-county-scale vegetation by the net primary productivity NPP of vegetation is as follows:
W CO2 ＝N×2.2×1.63；
W C ＝W CO2 ×0.27；
in which W is CO2 CO representing vegetation fixation per unit area in a certain period of time 2 The unit is g.m -2 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the N represents vegetation NPP of unit area in a certain time period, and the unit is g.m -2 ；W C Represents the carbon fixation amount of vegetation per unit area in a certain time period, and the unit is g.m -2 。
3. The method of claim 1, wherein the driving variables include: population density, climate change, CO 2 Concentration and nitrogen sedimentation.
4. The urban mass county scale vegetation carbon sequestration driving contribution analysis method of claim 2, wherein the relationship model is:
CS＝f(POP，NTL，AAF，POG，POW，TP，TEM，SSRD，SP，CO 2 ，WAN，DAN)；
wherein CS represents carbon sequestration amount of land vegetation, POP represents population density, NTL represents precipitation amount, AAF represents accumulated forestation area, POG represents urban green space area ratio, and POW represents urban wetland area ratioTP represents rainfall, TEM represents instantaneous 2m surface air temperature, SSRD represents surface solar downward radiation, SP represents atmospheric pressure, CO 2 Representing atmospheric CO 2 The concentration, DAN, represents dry settling of atmospheric inorganic nitrogen and WAN represents wet settling of atmospheric inorganic nitrogen.
5. The method of analyzing the carbon sequestration driving contribution of urban mass county scale vegetation according to claim 1, wherein calculating the relational model comprises: according to the relation model, a linear relation exists between the preset vegetation carbon fixation amount and the driving variable, and a first-order partial derivative equation is deduced as follows:
wherein, in the formula, wherein, each county area CS, POP, NTL, AAF, POG, POW, TP, TEM, SSRD, SP, CO of the city group 2 The annual slope of WAN, DAN;
respectively POP, NTL, AAF, POG, POW, TP, TEM, SSRD, SP, CO 2 Ridge regression coefficient of WAN, DAN, where the absolute change in carbon sequestration CS of the terrestrial vegetation is POP, NTL, AAF, POG, POW, TP, TEM, SSRD, SP, CO 2 Sum of absolute variation of WAN, DAN and residual epsilon.
6. The method for analyzing carbon sequestration driving contribution of urban mass and county scale vegetation according to claim 1, wherein population density, climate change and CO of each county of the urban mass are calculated 2 The contribution of concentration and nitrogen sedimentation to the change of carbon fixation amount of the vegetation in the county is as follows:
slope CS＝HUMAN+CLIMATE+CO 2 +N；
wherein R is HUM 、R CLI 、R N Respectively represent population density, climate change and CO 2 The relative contribution of concentration and nitrogen sedimentation to the change in carbon sequestration CS of land vegetation is in%.
7. The method for analyzing the carbon sequestration driving contribution of urban mass county scale vegetation according to claim 1, wherein the determining the carbon sequestration driving factor of vegetation according to the relative contribution value comprises:
analyzing contribution characteristics of driving factors according to absolute values of relative contribution values of each driving variable to the change of the carbon sequestration amount of the vegetation in the county;
and determining vegetation carbon variation dominant driving factors according to the driving factor contribution characteristics.
8. The method for analyzing the carbon sequestration driving contribution of urban-county-scale vegetation according to claim 1, wherein the generating the report of the carbon sequestration driving contribution of urban-county-scale vegetation according to the dominant driving factor comprises:
and analyzing the vegetation carbon fixation amount change and the reason according to the dominant driving factors, making a systematic urban ecological function improvement strategy, and generating and outputting a city group county level scale vegetation carbon fixation amount driving contribution report.
9. A city group county scale vegetation carbon fixation driving contribution analysis system is characterized by comprising:
the system comprises an acquisition module, a control module and a control module, wherein the acquisition module is used for acquiring data, and the data comprise vegetation net primary productivity NPP and driving variables;
the calculation module is connected with the acquisition module and is used for calculating the land vegetation carbon fixation quantity of the city group county scale through the vegetation net primary productivity NPP;
the construction module is connected with the calculation and is used for constructing a relation model between the vegetation carbon sequestration quantity and a plurality of driving variables by utilizing an attribution analysis framework;
the processing module is connected with the construction module and is used for calculating the relation model to obtain the relative contribution value of each driving variable to the change of the carbon sequestration amount of the vegetation in each county;
the analysis module is connected with the processing module and is used for determining vegetation carbon change dominant driving factors according to the relative contribution values;
and the output module is connected with the analysis module and is used for generating a city group county scale vegetation carbon fixation quantity driving contribution report according to the dominant driving factors.
CN202310698825.4A 2023-06-13 2023-06-13 Urban group county scale vegetation carbon fixation driving contribution analysis method and system Pending CN116681212A (en)

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Cited By (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN117575397A (en) * 2023-11-17 2024-02-20 生态环境部南京环境科学研究所 Method and device for demarcating carbon sink protection space of unified supervision-oriented ecosystem

Cited By (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN117575397A (en) * 2023-11-17 2024-02-20 生态环境部南京环境科学研究所 Method and device for demarcating carbon sink protection space of unified supervision-oriented ecosystem

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