CN116523125A - Wave height forecasting method based on sea surface wind speed forecasting - Google Patents
Wave height forecasting method based on sea surface wind speed forecasting Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a wave height forecasting method based on sea surface wind speed forecasting, which is characterized in that an observation point is matched for forecasting the current wave height forecasting point of a sea area according to the principle of closest distance, wind is considered as a main factor of wave generation and elimination in a short time, a calculation method of wave-induced wind speed is set, relevant statistical analysis or experience is carried out according to the wind speed of the observation point and the historical observation data of the wave height, the forward time span when the wave-induced wind speed is calculated under different wind speed grades is determined, and then a regression equation of the wave height and the wave-induced wind speed is obtained through statistics; the sea surface wind speed forecasting based on the meteorological numerical mode calculates the wave-induced wind speed at the forecasting time of the current wave height forecasting point of the forecasting sea area, so that the wave height can be automatically, objectively and accurately forecasted, risk forecasting and early warning can be provided for ocean shipping and offshore operation, the effects of risk decision and trending away are achieved, and higher economic benefit and social benefit are achieved.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a sea wave forecasting technology, in particular to a sea wave height forecasting method based on sea surface wind speed forecasting.
Background
The natural disasters can be formed by the strong wind and the strong waves independently, and many times, the two natural disasters occur simultaneously, so that the degree of the disasters is increased. The marine weather forecast service needs to pay attention not only to the disastrous high winds but also to the disastrous high waves related to the disastrous high winds. The disastrous rough waves are mainly the rough waves caused by strong weather systems such as typhoons, temperate zones, cyclones, chills and the like, the heavy losses of channels, ports, ships, seawalls and the like are easily caused by the heavy waves and the waves raised by typhoons, and the like, so that the serious sea wave disasters are caused.
The ocean wave is generally referred to as wave generated by wind in the ocean, and comprises stormy waves, surging waves and near-shore waves. The seas without wind can also generate swells and near-shore waves, which are what people say as 'three-scale waves without wind', but in reality, the waves are caused by wind elsewhere to spread. The wind wave is caused by the wind, and the surge is the wave left by the wind wave, and the wave is generally caused by the wind, so that the common language of no wind and no wave generation exists. The surge wave is slower than the wind wave, and has higher continuity in a certain time, and the wind wave is greatly influenced by wind, and if the wind speed or the wind direction suddenly changes, the wind wave also changes greatly. The growth of stormy waves is related to three main factors: (1) wind speed; (2) duration of wind acting on the water surface of the sea area, abbreviated as wind time; (3) the wind acts on the main range of the water surface of the sea area, and the length of the wind area is called as wind distance for short. The growth of wind waves is also related to the topography of the sea area, the water depth condition, the influence of ocean currents and the like in the propagation process, but the first three are the most critical, so the wind speed, the wind time and the wind distance are called as three elements of a wind field. The wind wave at a certain moment in a sea area is closely related to the wind cut in a period of time in the earlier stage, the wind closer to the moment has larger effect on the wind wave, the wave is larger along with the increase of the wind speed, in general, the 7-level wind corresponds to the billow, the wind wave component in the sea wave is larger, and the wave height is more related to the wind speed at the same moment.
Although the ocean numerical mode can forecast the change of the sea wave at present, the ocean numerical mode has the problems of wave-current coupling and difficulty in accurately describing coastlines, so that local strong current areas such as boundary currents, coasts and the like can be caused, and larger errors can occur in output results. The weather numerical mode has higher accuracy in forecasting atmospheric capacity, the wave height can be forecasted by wind through the action of wind on wave formation, the wind speed forecasting is utilized, the current forecasting is realized by adopting a semi-empirical semi-theoretical forecasting method and an empirical statistical forecasting method based on the wind speed forecasting at the moment to be forecasted, but the accuracy of the output result is required to be improved. In fact, the wave height is related to the wind speed in the previous period, so that the average wind speed in the previous period can be considered to forecast the wave height, and the forecasting effect is expected to be improved.
Disclosure of Invention
The technical problem to be solved by the invention is to provide a sea surface wind speed forecasting method, which can automatically, objectively and accurately calculate the wave height, and further can provide risk forecasting and early warning for ocean shipping and offshore operation.
The technical scheme adopted for solving the technical problems is as follows: a wave height forecasting method based on sea surface wind speed forecasting is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1: dividing sea surface wind speed into three wind speed grades, dividing wind speed smaller than 10.8 m/s into first-level wind speed, dividing wind speed larger than or equal to 10.8 m/s and smaller than 13.9 m/s into second-level wind speed, and dividing wind speed larger than or equal to 13.9 m/s into third-level wind speed;
step 2: for one wave height to-be-forecasted point of any sea area, defining the wave height to-be-forecasted point as a current wave height forecast point; then, according to the principle of nearest distance, matching an observation point for the current wave height forecast point, wherein the observation point has a wind speed observation value and a wave height observation value at the whole point moment within at least one year;
step 3: defining the current whole point time to be processed of the observation point as the current time;
step 4: the current moment is the H-th integer moment, whether wind speed observation values exist from the H-T integer moment to the total T+1 integer moments of the current moment or not is judged, if so, the wave-generating wind speed of the current moment is calculated and recorded as V,step 5 is executed again; otherwise, the step 5 is directly executed without processing the current moment; wherein the initial value of H is T max +1，T max The maximum value of the total point time count related to the calculated wave-causing wind speed set for each of the first-stage wind speed, the second-stage wind speed and the third-stage wind speed is represented by T, the total point time count related to the calculated wave-causing wind speed set for the wind speed level corresponding to the wind speed observation value at the current moment is represented by T, and the specific value of T is smaller as the wind speed level is larger, v i A wind speed observation value at the ith integral point time of the observation point is represented;
step 5: taking the next whole point time to be processed of the observation point as the current time, and returning to the step 4 to continue execution until all whole point times of the observation point are processed;
step 6: forming a group of wind speed wave height data by each calculated wave-generating wind speed and wave height observed values at the same point moment; then, classifying each group of wind speed wave height data into a wind speed grade corresponding to a wind speed observation value at the same point moment; according to the multiple groups of wind speed wave height data under each wind speed level, so that the wave speed is a forecasting factor and the wave height is a forecasting object, calculating to obtain a regression equation of the wave height and the wave-induced wind speed under the wind speed level, and taking the regression equation as a wave height forecasting equation under the wind speed level;
step 7: aiming at the current wave height forecasting point, defining the whole point time to be forecasted as the current forecasting time; however, the method is thatThen judging whether the current wave height forecasting point is on a forecasting grid of a sea surface wind speed forecasting product, if so, directly acquiring the wind speed forecasting at the current forecasting moment; otherwise, interpolating the wind speed forecast on the forecast grid at the current forecast moment to the current wave height forecast point by using bilinear interpolation to obtain the wind speed forecast at the current forecast moment; then, according to the wind speed grade corresponding to the wind speed forecast at the current forecast moment, determining a concrete value of T, which is the whole moment number related to the calculation of the wave-induced wind speed and is set for the wind speed grade; then calculating the wave-induced wind speed forecast value at the current forecast time, and marking as V f ，V f The value of (2) is equal to the average value of the wind speed forecast at all the whole point moments within the first T hours of the current forecast moment, i.eWherein the current forecast time is the F whole point time, v f,k Wind speed forecast at the kth full point time representing the current wave height forecast point, v if the current wave height forecast point is not on the forecast grid of the sea surface wind speed forecast product f,k Is obtained spatially by bilinear interpolation to the current wave height forecast point, v if the wind speed forecast at the kth full point of the current wave height forecast point does not exist f,k The value of (2) is obtained by utilizing time linear interpolation through wind speed forecast at two adjacent integral points; and finally, selecting a wave height forecast equation under the corresponding wind speed level, substituting the wave-induced wind speed forecast value at the current forecast moment into the selected wave height forecast equation as a forecast factor, and calculating to obtain the wave height forecast value at the current forecast moment.
In the step 4, if the wind speed grade corresponding to the wind speed observation value at the current moment is the first-level wind speed, taking t=12; if the wind speed grade corresponding to the wind speed observation value at the current moment is the secondary wind speed, taking T=6; if the wind speed grade corresponding to the wind speed observation value at the current moment is three-level wind speed, taking T=0.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the advantages that: according to the method, wind is taken into consideration as a main factor of wave generation and elimination in a short time, a calculation method of wave-generating wind speed is set, for a specific forecast sea area, relevant statistical analysis or experience is carried out according to historical observation data of wind speed and wave height, the forward time span when the wave-generating wind speed is calculated at different wind speed grades is determined, the composition of wind waves and surging can be reflected, the shorter the time is, the larger the wind wave ratio is, the longer the time is, the larger the surging ratio is, and then a regression equation of the wave height and the wave-generating wind speed is obtained through statistics; the sea surface wind speed forecast based on the meteorological numerical mode calculates the wave-generating wind speed at the time to be forecasted in the specific forecast sea area, so that the wave height can be automatically, objectively and accurately forecasted, risk forecast and early warning can be provided for ocean shipping and offshore operation, the effects of risk decision and favorable and harmless avoidance are achieved, and higher economic and social benefits are achieved.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a block diagram of a general implementation of the method of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The invention is described in further detail below with reference to the embodiments of the drawings.
The invention provides a wave height forecasting method based on sea surface wind speed forecasting, which is generally implemented as shown in a block diagram in fig. 1 and comprises the following steps:
step 1: dividing sea surface wind speed into three wind speed grades, dividing wind speed smaller than 10.8 m/s into first-level wind speed, dividing wind speed larger than or equal to 10.8 m/s and smaller than 13.9 m/s into second-level wind speed, and dividing wind speed larger than or equal to 13.9 m/s into third-level wind speed; in actual implementation, the wind speed level can be set according to statistical results or experience, and can be expanded into four or five wind speed levels.
Step 2: for one wave height to-be-forecasted point of any sea area, defining the wave height to-be-forecasted point as a current wave height forecast point; then, according to the principle of closest distance, an observation point is matched for the current wave height forecast point, namely, one observation point closest to the current wave height forecast point is selected from a plurality of observation points near the current wave height forecast point, the observation point has wind speed observation values and wave height observation values at all point moments within at least one year, the observation point does not have wind speed observation values and wave height observation values at all point moments, for example, 2022 data is used, not all point moments in 2022 are used, and half month data may be missing in the middle of instrument overhaul.
Step 3: the current point time of the observation point to be processed is defined as the current time.
Step 4: the current moment is the H-th integer moment, whether wind speed observation values exist from the H-T integer moment to the total T+1 integer moments of the current moment or not is judged, if so, the wave-generating wind speed of the current moment is calculated and recorded as V,step 5 is executed again; otherwise, the step 5 is directly executed without processing the current moment; wherein the initial value of H is T max +1，T max The maximum value of the total time count of the calculated wave wind speed set for each of the primary wind speed, the secondary wind speed, and the tertiary wind speed is represented by 12 total time counts of the calculated wave wind speed set for the primary wind speed, 6 total time counts of the calculated wave wind speed set for the secondary wind speed, and 0 total time count of the calculated wave wind speed set for the tertiary wind speed, that is, T max The term "12", T, represents the number of times of the whole point involved in calculating the wave-induced wind speed set for the wind speed level corresponding to the wind speed observation value at the current moment, the specific value of T corresponds to the wind speed level, that is, each wind speed level has its own T value, which can be specifically set according to the statistical result or experience, generally, the larger the wind speed level is, the smaller the specific value of T is, in this embodiment, if the wind speed level corresponding to the wind speed observation value at the current moment is the first-level wind speed, then t=12 is taken; if the wind speed grade corresponding to the wind speed observation value at the current moment is the secondary wind speed, taking T=6; if the wind speed grade corresponding to the wind speed observation value at the current moment is three-level wind speed, taking T=0 and v i The wind speed observation value at the i-th integral point time of the observation point is shown.
Step 5: and taking the next whole point time to be processed of the observation point as the current time, and returning to the step 4 to continue execution until all whole point times of the observation point are processed.
Step 6: the calculated wave-inducing wind speeds and wave height observed values at the same integer moment form a group of wind speed wave height data, if the calculated wave-inducing wind speeds at the 5 th, 6 th, 7 th and 8 th integer moments are calculated, the wave-inducing wind speeds at the 5 th integer moment and the wave height observed values at the 5 th integer moment form a group of wind speed wave height data, the wave-inducing wind speeds at the 6 th integer moment and the wave height observed values at the 6 th integer moment form a group of wind speed wave height data, the wave-inducing wind speeds at the 7 th integer moment and the wave height observed values at the 7 th integer moment form a group of wind speed wave height data, and the wave-inducing wind speeds at the 8 th integer moment and the wave height observed values at the 8 th integer moment form a group of wind speed wave height data; then, classifying each group of wind speed wave height data into a wind speed grade corresponding to a wind speed observation value at the same point moment, and classifying the group of wind speed wave height data into a secondary wind speed if the wind speed grade corresponding to the wind speed observation value at the same point moment corresponding to one group of wind speed wave height data is the secondary wind speed; and then according to the multiple groups of wind speed wave height data under each wind speed grade, so that the wave speed is taken as a forecasting factor and the wave height is taken as a forecasting object, calculating to obtain a regression equation of the wave height and the wave-induced wind speed under the wind speed grade, and taking the regression equation as a wave height forecasting equation under the wind speed grade, wherein three different wind speed grades are provided with three wave height forecasting equations.
Step 7: aiming at the current wave height forecasting point, defining the whole point time to be forecasted as the current forecasting time; then judging whether the current wave height forecasting point is on a forecasting grid of a sea surface wind speed forecasting product, if so, directly acquiring the wind speed forecasting at the current forecasting moment; otherwise, interpolating the wind speed forecast on the forecast grid at the current forecast moment to the current wave height forecast point by using bilinear interpolation to obtain the wind speed forecast at the current forecast moment; then, according to the wind speed grade corresponding to the wind speed forecast at the current forecast moment, determining a concrete value of T, which is the whole moment number related to the calculation of the wave-induced wind speed and is set for the wind speed grade; then calculating the wave-induced wind speed forecast value at the current forecast time, and marking as V f ，V f The value of (2) is equal to the average value of the wind speed forecast at all the whole point moments within the first T hours of the current forecast moment, i.eWherein the current forecast time is the F whole point time, v f,k Wind speed forecast at the kth full point time representing the current wave height forecast point, v if the current wave height forecast point is not on the forecast grid of the sea surface wind speed forecast product f,k Is obtained spatially by bilinear interpolation to the current wave height forecast point, v if the wind speed forecast at the kth full point of the current wave height forecast point does not exist f,k The value of (2) is obtained by utilizing time linear interpolation through wind speed forecast at two adjacent integral points; and finally, selecting a wave height forecast equation under the corresponding wind speed level, substituting the wave-induced wind speed forecast value at the current forecast moment into the selected wave height forecast equation as a forecast factor, and calculating to obtain the wave height forecast value at the current forecast moment, thereby providing risk forecast and early warning for marine shipping and offshore operation according to the wave height forecast value.
The Zhejiang province meteorological department puts in the mountain station, the wenzhou station, the reef station, the shrimp stand out of the gate station and the sea gate station 5 buoy stations in the Zhejiang coast successively from 2010, and the observation project comprises wave height (namely effective wave height) and sea surface wind. Based on the observation data of 5 buoy stations in coast of Zhejiang province in 2010-2021, a wave height forecast equation under three different wind speed grades is established according to the method. The sea surface wind speed forecast data of the fine grid mode of the middle European weather forecast center (ECMWF) of 2022 is adopted, the wave height forecast value is calculated and checked according to the method of the invention, and the result shows that: the wave height forecast value is well matched with the actual measurement value, root mean square errors of 24, 48 and 72 hours forecast are smaller than 0.6 meter, absolute deviation values are smaller than 0.1 meter, and the method has good forecast effect.
Claims (2)
1. A wave height forecasting method based on sea surface wind speed forecasting is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1: dividing sea surface wind speed into three wind speed grades, dividing wind speed smaller than 10.8 m/s into first-level wind speed, dividing wind speed larger than or equal to 10.8 m/s and smaller than 13.9 m/s into second-level wind speed, and dividing wind speed larger than or equal to 13.9 m/s into third-level wind speed;
step 2: for one wave height to-be-forecasted point of any sea area, defining the wave height to-be-forecasted point as a current wave height forecast point; then, according to the principle of nearest distance, matching an observation point for the current wave height forecast point, wherein the observation point has a wind speed observation value and a wave height observation value at the whole point moment within at least one year;
step 3: defining the current whole point time to be processed of the observation point as the current time;
step 4: the current moment is the H-th integer moment, whether wind speed observation values exist from the H-T integer moment to the total T+1 integer moments of the current moment or not is judged, if so, the wave-generating wind speed of the current moment is calculated and recorded as V,step 5 is executed again; otherwise, the step 5 is directly executed without processing the current moment; wherein the initial value of H is T max +1，T max The maximum value of the integral time numbers related to the calculated wave-causing wind speed set for the first-stage wind speed, the second-stage wind speed and the third-stage wind speed is represented by the integral time number related to the calculated wave-causing wind speed set for the wind speed grade corresponding to the wind speed observation value at the current moment, and the specific value of the T is smaller as the wind speed grade is larger, v is represented by the integral time number related to the calculated wave-causing wind speed set for the wind speed grade at the current moment i A wind speed observation value at the ith integral point time of the observation point is represented;
step 5: taking the next whole point time to be processed of the observation point as the current time, and returning to the step 4 to continue execution until all whole point times of the observation point are processed;
step 6: forming a group of wind speed wave height data by each calculated wave-generating wind speed and wave height observed values at the same point moment; then, classifying each group of wind speed wave height data into a wind speed grade corresponding to a wind speed observation value at the same point moment; according to the multiple groups of wind speed wave height data under each wind speed level, so that the wave speed is a forecasting factor and the wave height is a forecasting object, calculating to obtain a regression equation of the wave height and the wave-induced wind speed under the wind speed level, and taking the regression equation as a wave height forecasting equation under the wind speed level;
step 7: aiming at the current wave height forecasting point, defining the whole point time to be forecasted as the current forecasting time; then judging whether the current wave height forecasting point is on a forecasting grid of a sea surface wind speed forecasting product, if so, directly acquiring the wind speed forecasting at the current forecasting moment; otherwise, interpolating the wind speed forecast on the forecast grid at the current forecast moment to the current wave height forecast point by using bilinear interpolation to obtain the wind speed forecast at the current forecast moment; then, according to the wind speed grade corresponding to the wind speed forecast at the current forecast moment, determining a concrete value of T, which is the whole moment number related to the calculation of the wave-induced wind speed and is set for the wind speed grade; then calculating the wave-induced wind speed forecast value at the current forecast time, and marking as V f ，V f The value of (2) is equal to the average value of the wind speed forecast at all the whole point moments within the first T hours of the current forecast moment, i.eWherein the current forecast time is the F whole point time, v f,k Wind speed forecast at the kth full point time representing the current wave height forecast point, v if the current wave height forecast point is not on the forecast grid of the sea surface wind speed forecast product f,k Is obtained spatially by bilinear interpolation to the current wave height forecast point, v if the wind speed forecast at the kth full point of the current wave height forecast point does not exist f,k The value of (2) is obtained by utilizing time linear interpolation through wind speed forecast at two adjacent integral points; and finally, selecting a wave height forecast equation under the corresponding wind speed level, substituting the wave-induced wind speed forecast value at the current forecast moment into the selected wave height forecast equation as a forecast factor, and calculating to obtain the wave height forecast value at the current forecast moment.
2. The wave height forecasting method based on sea surface wind speed forecasting according to claim 1, wherein in the step 4, if the wind speed grade corresponding to the wind speed observation value at the current moment is the first-level wind speed, then taking t=12; if the wind speed grade corresponding to the wind speed observation value at the current moment is the secondary wind speed, taking T=6; if the wind speed grade corresponding to the wind speed observation value at the current moment is three-level wind speed, taking T=0.
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