CN116468163B - Carbon emission prediction method and device - Google Patents

Carbon emission prediction method and device Download PDF

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Publication number
CN116468163B
CN116468163B CN202310389819.0A CN202310389819A CN116468163B CN 116468163 B CN116468163 B CN 116468163B CN 202310389819 A CN202310389819 A CN 202310389819A CN 116468163 B CN116468163 B CN 116468163B
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year
historical
predicted
carbon emission
carbon
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CN116468163A (en
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王人洁
宋媛媛
张永林
李悦
李晓易
吴睿
徐洪磊
谭晓雨
杨道源
邢有凯
李明君
黄全胜
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Transport Planning And Research Institute Ministry Of Transport
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Transport Planning And Research Institute Ministry Of Transport
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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/04—Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem"
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
    • G06F17/00—Digital computing or data processing equipment or methods, specially adapted for specific functions
    • G06F17/10—Complex mathematical operations
    • G06F17/18—Complex mathematical operations for evaluating statistical data, e.g. average values, frequency distributions, probability functions, regression analysis
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/08—Logistics, e.g. warehousing, loading or distribution; Inventory or stock management
    • G06Q10/083—Shipping
    • G06Q10/0838—Historical data
    • G06Q50/40—
    • Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
    • Y02P—CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES IN THE PRODUCTION OR PROCESSING OF GOODS
    • Y02P90/00—Enabling technologies with a potential contribution to greenhouse gas [GHG] emissions mitigation
    • Y02P90/80—Management or planning
    • Y02P90/84—Greenhouse gas [GHG] management systems

Abstract

The application provides a carbon emission prediction method and a device, wherein the method comprises the following steps: acquiring a predicted year, a historical cargo turnover list and a historical carbon emission list of a target enterprise, wherein the historical cargo turnover list comprises each historical year and cargo turnover corresponding to the historical year, and the historical carbon emission list comprises each historical year and carbon emission corresponding to the historical year; determining a fitting function between the cargo turnover corresponding to each historical year and the cargo turnover corresponding to the preset year before the historical year; predicting the predicted cargo turnover of the predicted year according to the cargo turnover of the predicted year and the fitting function of the predicted year; and determining the predicted carbon emission of the predicted year according to the predicted cargo turnover, the cargo turnover of the preset year before the predicted year and the carbon emission of the preset year before the predicted year. The method and the device solve the technical problems that carbon emission cannot be predicted, and therefore target enterprises cannot replace equipment in time, and carbon emission is excessive.

Description

Carbon emission prediction method and device
Technical Field
The present disclosure relates to the field of carbon emission technologies, and in particular, to a method and an apparatus for predicting carbon emission.
Background
In the prior art, enterprises do not count the current carbon emissions of the enterprises themselves and predict future carbon emissions. Since transportation enterprises have a large number of moving transportation equipment such as vehicles and ships, the calculation mode of carbon emission is obviously different from that of industrial enterprises, and thus the carbon emission of the transportation enterprises cannot be calculated through the calculation mode of the industrial enterprises. And the annual carbon emission of the transportation enterprises cannot be calculated, so that the future carbon emission cannot be predicted according to the historical data, and the enterprises cannot replace energy-saving equipment in time according to the predicted carbon emission.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of this, the present application aims at providing at least a carbon emission prediction method and apparatus, determine the predicted cargo turnover of the predicted year according to a fitting function corresponding to the historical cargo turnover of the target enterprise and the preset year before the historical year, and determine the predicted carbon emission of the predicted year according to the predicted cargo turnover, the cargo turnover of the preset year before the predicted year, and the carbon emission of the preset year before the predicted year, thereby solving the technical problems that the target enterprise cannot replace equipment in time and causes excessive carbon emission, and achieving the technical effect of providing the target enterprise with the basis of replacing equipment and reducing carbon emission.
The application mainly comprises the following aspects:
in a first aspect, embodiments of the present application provide a carbon emission prediction method, the method including: the method comprises the steps of obtaining a predicted year, a historical cargo turnover list and a historical carbon emission list of a target enterprise, wherein the historical cargo turnover list comprises each historical year and cargo turnover corresponding to the historical year, and the historical carbon emission list comprises each historical year and carbon emission corresponding to the historical year; determining a fitting function between the cargo turnover corresponding to each historical year and the cargo turnover corresponding to the preset year before the historical year; predicting the predicted cargo turnover of the predicted year according to the cargo turnover of the preset year before the predicted year and the fitting function; and determining the predicted carbon emission of the predicted year according to the predicted cargo turnover, the cargo turnover of the preset year before the predicted year and the carbon emission of the preset year before the predicted year.
Optionally, the method further comprises: multiplying the first coefficient, the second coefficient and the third coefficient set by a user with the predicted carbon emission respectively to obtain a first predicted carbon emission corresponding to new energy equipment used in the predicted year, a second predicted carbon emission corresponding to energy efficiency improving equipment used in the predicted year and a third predicted carbon emission corresponding to existing equipment used in the predicted year; multiplying the carbon emission rate of the new energy equipment set by the user with the first predicted carbon emission to obtain a first product, and multiplying the energy efficiency improvement rate of the energy efficiency improvement equipment set by the user with the second predicted carbon emission to obtain a second product; adding the first product, the second product and the third predicted carbon emissions to obtain a target predicted carbon emissions for the predicted year; determining whether the target predicted carbon emissions are greater than a preset carbon emissions; and if the target predicted carbon emission is greater than the preset carbon emission, prompting a user to modify the first coefficient, the second coefficient and the third coefficient.
Alternatively, the corresponding carbon emissions for each historical year are calculated by: determining carbon emissions generated by the target enterprise in each historical year office according to a first fossil fuel list and a first power consumption list of the target enterprise in each historical year office; determining carbon emissions generated by the vehicles of the target enterprises in each historical year according to a second fossil fuel list and a second power consumption list consumed by the vehicles of the target enterprises in each historical year; determining carbon emissions generated by the loading and unloading operation of the target enterprise in each historical year according to a third fossil fuel list consumed by the loading and unloading operation of the target enterprise in each historical year; the carbon emissions generated at the office of each historical year, the carbon emissions generated by the vehicle, and the carbon emissions generated in the loading and unloading operations are summed up as the carbon emissions of the target business at each historical year.
Optionally, the second fossil fuel list includes fossil fuel types, vehicle types, and travel information for each type of vehicle of the target enterprise; the vehicle types include: vehicles and ships; the second power consumption list comprises the charging amount of each charging of each vehicle and the region corresponding to each charging; determining carbon emissions generated by the target business's vehicles in each historical year based on the second list of fossil fuels and the second list of electricity consumption consumed by the target business's vehicles in each historical year, comprising: determining carbon emission generated by the first type of vehicles in each historical year according to the fossil fuel types corresponding to the first type of vehicles in each historical year and the running information corresponding to the vehicles; determining carbon emission generated by the second type of vehicles in each historical year according to the fossil fuel types corresponding to the second type of vehicles in each historical year and the running information corresponding to the ship; according to the charging amount of each charging corresponding to each historical year and the region corresponding to each charging of each vehicle, determining the carbon emission generated by using the electric energy by all vehicles in each historical year; the carbon emissions generated by the first type of vehicles, the carbon emissions generated by the second type of vehicles, and the carbon emissions generated by all vehicles using electric energy for each historical year are summed up as the carbon emissions generated by the vehicles of the target business for each historical year.
Optionally, the third list of fossil fuels includes: the type of fossil fuel corresponding to each loading and unloading device, the carbon emission factor of each fossil fuel, the annual fuel consumption, the type of fossil fuel corresponding to each port machinery in each emission stage, the carbon emission factor of each fossil fuel, the annual fuel consumption; the determining the carbon emissions generated by the loading and unloading operation of the target enterprise in each historical year according to the third fossil fuel list consumed by the loading and unloading operation of the target enterprise in each historical year comprises the following steps: for each historical year, calculating carbon emissions of all loading and unloading equipment in the historical year according to the type of fossil fuel corresponding to each loading and unloading equipment in the historical year, the carbon emission factor of each fossil fuel and the annual fuel consumption; for each historical year, calculating the carbon emission of all the harbor machines in the historical year according to the corresponding fossil fuel types and carbon emission factors and fuel annual consumption of each fossil fuel in each emission stage of each harbor machine in the historical year; the carbon emissions of all loading and unloading equipment of each historical year are summed with the carbon emissions of all port machines as the carbon emissions generated by the loading and unloading operations of the target enterprise in each historical year.
Alternatively, the carbon emissions of all handling equipment are calculated by the following formula:
in the above formula, E z Refers to carbon emissions, x of all handling equipment 3 Refers to the x th 3 Seed handling equipment, n 3 Refers to the number of types of handling equipment, y 3 Refers to the y-th used by the loading and unloading equipment 3 Fossil fuel, m 3 Refers to the number of types of fossil fuels used by the loading and unloading equipment,refers to the x th 3 Seed handling apparatus use y 3 Annual fuel consumption of fossil fuels, +.>Refers to the x th 3 Seed handling apparatus use y 3 Carbon emission factor of fossil fuels.
Alternatively, the carbon emissions of all harbor machines are calculated by the following formula:
in the above formula, E d Refers to carbon emissions, x of all harbor machines 4 Refers to every x 4 Seed harbor machine, n 4 Refers to the number of types of harbor machines, y 4 Refers to the y-th of the port machinery 4 Fossil fuel, m 4 Refers to the number of types of fossil fuels used by port machinery, k refers to the kth discharge stage, M refers to the total number of discharge stages,refers to the x th 4 Seed harbor machine use y 4 Annual fuel consumption of fossil fuel in the kth emission phase, < >>Refers to the x th 4 Seed harbor machine use y 4 Carbon emission factor of fossil fuel in the kth emission stage.
In a second aspect, embodiments of the present application further provide a carbon emission prediction apparatus, including: the system comprises an acquisition module, a storage module and a control module, wherein the acquisition module is used for acquiring a predicted year, a historical cargo turnover list and a historical carbon emission list of a target enterprise, the historical cargo turnover list comprises each historical year and cargo turnover corresponding to the historical year, and the historical carbon emission list comprises each historical year and carbon emission corresponding to the historical year; the determining module is used for determining a fitting function between the cargo turnover corresponding to each historical year and the cargo turnover corresponding to the preset year before the historical year; the first prediction module is used for predicting the predicted cargo turnover of the predicted year according to the cargo turnover of the preset year before the predicted year and the fitting function; and the second prediction module is used for determining the predicted carbon emission of the predicted year according to the predicted cargo turnover, the cargo turnover of the preset year before the predicted year and the carbon emission of the preset year before the predicted year.
In a third aspect, embodiments of the present application further provide an electronic device, including: a processor, a memory and a bus, the memory storing machine readable instructions executable by the processor, the processor and the memory in communication via the bus when the electronic device is running, the machine readable instructions when executed by the processor performing the steps of the carbon emission prediction method as described in the first aspect or any of the possible implementation manners of the first aspect.
In a fourth aspect, the embodiments of the present application further provide a computer readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program which, when executed by a processor, performs the steps of the carbon emission prediction method described in the first aspect or any of the possible implementation manners of the first aspect.
The embodiment of the application provides a carbon emission prediction method and device, wherein the method comprises the following steps: the method comprises the steps of obtaining a predicted year, a historical cargo turnover list and a historical carbon emission list of a target enterprise, wherein the historical cargo turnover list comprises each historical year and cargo turnover corresponding to the historical year, and the historical carbon emission list comprises each historical year and carbon emission corresponding to the historical year; determining a fitting function between the cargo turnover corresponding to each historical year and the cargo turnover corresponding to the preset year before the historical year; predicting the predicted cargo turnover of the predicted year according to the cargo turnover of the preset year before the predicted year and the fitting function; and determining the predicted carbon emission of the predicted year according to the predicted cargo turnover, the cargo turnover of the preset year before the predicted year and the carbon emission of the preset year before the predicted year. The method comprises the steps of determining the predicted cargo turnover of the predicted year through a fitting function corresponding to the historical cargo turnover of the target enterprise and the preset year before the historical year, determining the predicted carbon emission of the predicted year according to the predicted cargo turnover, the cargo turnover of the preset year before the predicted year and the carbon emission of the preset year before the predicted year, and solving the technical problems that the prior art cannot predict the carbon emission, so that the target enterprise cannot replace equipment in time to cause excessive carbon emission, and achieving the technical effect of providing the basis of replacing equipment for the target enterprise to reduce the carbon emission.
In order to make the above objects, features and advantages of the present application more comprehensible, preferred embodiments accompanied with figures are described in detail below.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present application, the drawings that are needed in the embodiments will be briefly described below, it being understood that the following drawings only illustrate some embodiments of the present application and therefore should not be considered limiting the scope, and that other related drawings may be obtained according to these drawings without inventive effort for a person skilled in the art.
Fig. 1 shows a flowchart of a carbon emission prediction method provided in an embodiment of the present application.
Fig. 2 shows a flowchart of another carbon emission prediction method provided by an embodiment of the present application.
Fig. 3 shows a functional block diagram of a carbon emission prediction device according to an embodiment of the present application.
Fig. 4 shows a schematic structural diagram of an electronic device according to an embodiment of the present application.
Detailed Description
For the purpose of making the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present application more clear, the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present application will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present application, and it should be understood that the accompanying drawings in the present application are only for the purpose of illustration and description, and are not intended to limit the protection scope of the present application. In addition, it should be understood that the schematic drawings are not drawn to scale. A flowchart, as used in this application, illustrates operations implemented according to some embodiments of the present application. It should be appreciated that the operations of the flow diagrams may be implemented out of order and that steps without logical context may be performed in reverse order or concurrently. Moreover, one or more other operations may be added to the flow diagrams and one or more operations may be removed from the flow diagrams as directed by those skilled in the art.
In addition, the described embodiments are only some, but not all, of the embodiments of the present application. The components of the embodiments of the present application, which are generally described and illustrated in the figures herein, may be arranged and designed in a wide variety of different configurations. Thus, the following detailed description of the embodiments of the present application, as provided in the accompanying drawings, is not intended to limit the scope of the application, as claimed, but is merely representative of selected embodiments of the application. All other embodiments, which can be made by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the present application without making any inventive effort, are intended to be within the scope of the present application.
In the prior art, no carbon emission prediction is performed on enterprises, so that the enterprises cannot replace equipment in time to reduce carbon emission, and the environment is affected.
Based on this, the embodiment of the application provides a carbon emission prediction method and device, the historical goods turnover of the historical year of the target enterprise determines the predicted goods turnover of the predicted year according to the fitting function corresponding to the preset year before the historical year, and then determines the predicted carbon emission of the predicted year according to the predicted goods turnover, the goods turnover of the preset year before the predicted year and the carbon emission of the preset year before the predicted year, thereby solving the technical problems that the prior art cannot predict the carbon emission, and the target enterprise cannot replace equipment in time to cause excessive carbon emission, and achieving the technical effect of providing the target enterprise with the basis of replacing equipment so as to reduce the carbon emission. The method comprises the following steps:
Referring to fig. 1, fig. 1 is a flowchart of a carbon emission prediction method according to an embodiment of the present application. As shown in fig. 1, the carbon emission prediction method provided in the embodiment of the present application includes the following steps:
s101: and obtaining a predicted year, a historical cargo turnover list and a historical carbon emission list of the target enterprise.
The historical goods turnover list comprises each historical year of the target enterprise and goods turnover corresponding to the historical year, and the historical carbon emission list comprises each historical year of the target enterprise and carbon emission corresponding to the historical year. The target enterprise in the embodiment of the application is generally set as a transportation enterprise.
The predicted year is user-set and may be any year after the current year. The historical year is the year before the current year, and as the current year has not yet ended, there is no way to calculate the cargo turnover and carbon emissions for the current year of the target enterprise.
The unit of cargo turnover is ton kilometers, the target enterprise in the application is a transportation enterprise and relates to maritime traffic, and the unit of cargo turnover of maritime is ton seashore, so that the unit of cargo turnover of maritime is converted into ton kilometers for statistics.
The historical cargo throughput list may be obtained directly.
S102: and determining a fitting function between the cargo turnover corresponding to each historical year and the cargo turnover corresponding to the preset year before the historical year.
For each historical year, determining the goods turnover corresponding to the historical year and the goods turnover corresponding to the preset year before the historical year by searching a historical goods turnover list, so that a fitting function between the goods turnover corresponding to the historical year and the goods turnover corresponding to the preset year before the historical year is determined in a data fitting mode.
The fit function between each historical year and the cargo turnover corresponding to the pre-set year preceding the historical year is as follows:
in the formula (1), T n Refers to the cargo turnover in the history of n years, gamma refers to the preset year, T n+γ Refers to the turnover of goods in gamma preset years after n years of historyQuantity, a γ Refers to a first coefficient of a fitting function corresponding to gamma preset years, b γ Refers to the second coefficient of the fitting function corresponding to the gamma preset year. The preset year can be set by the user himself.
For example, if the historical goods turnover list includes goods turnover corresponding to each historical year from 2000 to 2020 of the target enterprise, and the preset year is set to 3 years, then data fitting is performed according to the goods turnover in 2000 and 2003, the goods turnover in 2001 and 2004, the goods turnover in 2002 and 2005, the goods turnover in …, 2017 and 2020, to obtain a fitting function
S103: and predicting the predicted cargo turnover of the predicted year according to the cargo turnover of the predicted year and the fitting function of the preset year before the predicted year.
For example, if the preset year is set to 3 years and the predicted year is 2023 years, then n takes 2020, brings the turnover of goods in 2020 into the fit functionThe predicted turnover of goods for 2023 is available.
S104: and determining the predicted carbon emission of the predicted year according to the predicted cargo turnover, the cargo turnover of the preset year before the predicted year and the carbon emission of the preset year before the predicted year.
The predicted carbon emissions for the predicted year are calculated by the following formula:
in the formula (2), E n Refers to carbon emissions for n years of history, gamma refers to preset years, E n+γ Refers to predicted carbon emissions of gamma preset years after n years of history, i.e. E n+γ Is a pre-preparationYear of measurement, T n+γ Refers to the turnover of goods in gamma preset years after n years of history, i.e. T n+γ Is the goods turnover quantity of the predicted year, T n Refers to the turnover of goods for the historic year n years.
Illustratively, if the preset year is set to 3 years and the predicted year is 2023 years, n takes 2020, and brings the 2020 year turnover, the 2020 carbon emission, and the 2023 predicted turnover into formula (2), the 2023 predicted carbon emission can be obtained.
Wherein, the predicted carbon emissions refer to carbon emissions produced by the target enterprises in the predicted years while still operating using the existing equipment.
The method further comprises the steps of: acquiring preset carbon emission set by a user; determining whether the predicted carbon emissions are greater than a preset carbon emissions; if the predicted carbon emission is greater than the preset carbon emission, prompting a user to replace the existing equipment; if the predicted carbon emissions are less than or equal to the preset carbon emissions, the user is not prompted to replace the existing equipment.
The preset carbon emission may be a threshold set by the user according to the target enterprise development plan, or a carbon emission value required by the relevant departments for the target enterprise. And if the predicted carbon emission is larger than the preset carbon emission, prompting the user to replace the existing equipment at least when the predicted year is reached, and replacing the existing equipment with new energy equipment or energy efficiency improving equipment. The longer the service life of the equipment is, the higher the carbon emission is, so that the model specification of the existing equipment is not changed, and the existing equipment is replaced, thereby playing a role in reducing the carbon emission.
Referring to fig. 2, fig. 2 is a flowchart of another carbon emission prediction method according to an embodiment of the present application. As shown in fig. 2, the carbon emission prediction method provided in the embodiment of the present application includes the following steps:
S201: and multiplying the first coefficient, the second coefficient and the third coefficient set by the user by the predicted carbon emission respectively to obtain a first predicted carbon emission corresponding to new energy equipment used in the predicted year, a second predicted carbon emission corresponding to energy efficiency improving equipment used and a third predicted carbon emission corresponding to existing equipment used.
That is, the first coefficient set by the user is multiplied by the predicted carbon emissions to obtain the first predicted carbon emissions corresponding to the new energy device used in the predicted year, and the first coefficient refers to the application proportion of the new energy device applied by the target enterprise in the predicted year set by the user. And multiplying the second coefficient set by the user by the predicted carbon emission to obtain a second predicted carbon emission corresponding to the predicted year use energy efficiency improving equipment, wherein the second coefficient refers to the application proportion of the target enterprise application energy efficiency improving equipment set by the user in the predicted year. And multiplying the third coefficient set by the user by the predicted carbon emission to obtain a third predicted carbon emission corresponding to the use of the existing equipment in the predicted year, wherein the third coefficient refers to the application proportion of the existing equipment applied by the target enterprise in the predicted year set by the user.
Wherein the sum of the first coefficient, the second coefficient, and the third coefficient is one, and the sum of the first predicted carbon emission, the second predicted carbon emission, and the third predicted carbon emission is the predicted carbon emission. The new energy device may be understood as a device that does not generate carbon emissions, and the energy efficiency improving device refers to a device that can provide more energy than the existing device using the same fossil fuel or electric energy as the existing device.
It should be noted that the first coefficient, the second coefficient and the third coefficient are generally set according to the development trend of the target enterprise and the aging condition of the existing equipment, and obviously, along with the development of the age, the application proportion of the new energy equipment and the energy efficiency improving equipment is increased, and a reference interval is provided in the application. When the preset year gamma is less than or equal to 10 years, the value range of the first coefficient is [0,0.2], and the value range of the second coefficient is [0,0.5]; when the preset year gamma is greater than 10 years and less than or equal to 20 years, the value range of the first coefficient is (0.2, 0.4), the value range of the second coefficient is (0.5,0.7), when the preset year gamma is greater than 20 years and less than or equal to 40 years, the value range of the first coefficient is (0.4,1), and the value range of the second coefficient is (0.7,1).
S202: multiplying the carbon emission rate of the new energy equipment set by the user by the first predicted carbon emission to obtain a first product, and multiplying the energy efficiency improvement rate of the energy efficiency improvement equipment set by the user by the second predicted carbon emission to obtain a second product.
The carbon emission rate of the new energy device may be understood as a probability that the new energy device generates carbon emission during use.
The carbon emission rate of new energy equipment in this application is generally set to 0, and the energy efficiency rate of energy efficiency promotion equipment also improves along with the development of age, and the user can set up the energy efficiency rate by oneself, and this application gives a reference interval. When the preset year gamma is less than or equal to 10 years, the value range of the energy efficiency improvement rate is [0,0.05]; the range of energy efficiency improvement rate is (0.05,0.07) when the preset year gamma is greater than 10 years and less than or equal to 20 years, and (0.07,0.1) when the preset year gamma is greater than 20 years and less than or equal to 40 years.
S203: and adding the first product, the second product and the third predicted carbon emission to obtain the target predicted carbon emission of the predicted year.
Wherein the target predicted carbon emissions refer to target predicted carbon emissions generated by the predicted year when using the new energy device and/or the energy efficiency improving device.
The target predicted carbon emissions for the predicted year are calculated by the following formula:
E′ n+γ ＝E n+γ,1 ×μ+E n+γ,2 ×η+E n+γ,3 (3)
E n+γ,1 ＝E n+γ ×p 1 (4)
E n+γ,2 ＝E n+γ ×p 2 (5)
E n+γ,3 ＝E n+γ ×p 3 (6)
in the formulas (3) to (6), E' n+γ Refers to target predicted carbon emissions for a predetermined number of years, γ, after n years of history, E n+γ,1 Refers to the first predicted carbon emissions of the gamma preset year after the history n years, E n+γ,2 Refers to calendarA second predicted carbon emission of gamma preset years after n years of history, E n+γ,3 Refers to the third predicted carbon emission of gamma preset years after n years of history, eta refers to the energy efficiency improvement rate, mu refers to the carbon emission rate generated by using new energy equipment set by a user, and mu is generally set to 0, p 1 Refers to the first coefficient, p 2 Refers to the second coefficient, p 3 ＝1-p 1 -p 2 ，p 3 Refers to the third coefficient.
S204: it is determined whether the target predicted carbon emission is greater than a preset carbon emission.
That is, whether the target predicted carbon emissions are greater than a preset carbon emissions, which may be a threshold set by the user according to the target enterprise development plan, or a carbon emissions value required by the relevant departments for the target enterprise.
S205: the user is prompted to modify the first coefficient, the second coefficient, and the third coefficient.
If the target predicted carbon emission is greater than the preset carbon emission, prompting a user to modify the first coefficient, the second coefficient and the third coefficient; if the target predicted carbon emission is less than or equal to the preset carbon emission, the first coefficient, the second coefficient and the third coefficient are not required to be modified, and then the target enterprise can arrange to change the existing equipment into new energy equipment according to the first coefficient in the predicted year and change part of the existing equipment into energy efficiency improving equipment according to the second coefficient, so that the carbon emission in the predicted year is less than or equal to the preset carbon emission. That is, if the target predicted carbon emission is greater than the preset carbon emission, the user is prompted to modify the first coefficient, the second coefficient, and the third coefficient. That is, the first coefficient and/or the second coefficient need to be increased and the third coefficient needs to be decreased in the predicted year. That is, the application ratio of the new energy device and/or the energy efficiency improving device is increased, and the application ratio of the existing device is decreased, so that the target predicted carbon emission is less than or equal to the preset carbon emission.
Specifically, the corresponding carbon emissions for each historical year were calculated by: determining carbon emissions generated by the target enterprise in each historical year office according to a first fossil fuel list and a first power consumption list of the target enterprise in each historical year office; determining carbon emissions generated by the vehicles of the target enterprises in each historical year according to a second fossil fuel list and a second power consumption list consumed by the vehicles of the target enterprises in each historical year; determining carbon emissions generated by the loading and unloading operation of the target enterprise in each historical year according to a third fossil fuel list consumed by the loading and unloading operation of the target enterprise in each historical year; the carbon emissions generated at the office of each historical year, the carbon emissions generated by the vehicle, and the carbon emissions generated in the loading and unloading operations are summed up as the carbon emissions of the target business at each historical year.
The first fossil fuel list comprises fossil fuel types and consumption of each fossil fuel used by a target enterprise in each historical year office, and the first power consumption list comprises power consumption used by the target enterprise in each historical year office and regional emission factors corresponding to office areas. Fossil fuel and electricity consumption for office use can be understood as fossil fuel and electricity consumption for removal of vehicles and handling operations by office buildings, dormitories, canteens, etc. of the target enterprise.
Determining carbon emissions generated by the target enterprise in each historical year office according to a first fossil fuel list and a first power consumption list consumed by the target enterprise in each historical year office, including: determining carbon emissions generated by the target enterprise in each historical year by consuming fossil fuel according to the type of fossil fuel consumed by the target enterprise in each historical year and the consumption amount of each fossil fuel; determining carbon emission generated by the consumption of electric energy of the target enterprise in each historical year office according to the consumption of the target enterprise in each historical year office and the regional emission factor corresponding to the office region; adding the carbon emissions generated by the target business's office consuming fossil fuel to the carbon emissions generated by consuming electrical energy as the target business's office in each historical year.
The carbon emissions produced by the target business in each historical year of office consumption of fossil fuels were calculated by the following formula:
in the formula (7) of the present invention,refers to the carbon emissions produced by the consumption of fossil fuels by offices in each historical year, y 1 Refers to the y-th of office consumption 1 Fossil fuel, m 1 Refers to the number of kinds of fossil fuel consumed in offices,/-for >Refers to the y-th office consumption corresponding to each historical year 1 Consumption of fossil fuels, ++>Refers to the y 1 Carbon emission factor of fossil fuels.
The carbon emissions generated by the target business in each historical year of office consumption were calculated by the following formula:
in the formula (8), the expression "a",refers to the carbon emissions generated by the consumption of electric energy by offices in each historical year, E M Refers to the electricity consumed by offices in each historical year, EF q Refers to the regional emission factor corresponding to the office area.
As shown in table 1, table 1 is the zone emission factor for different zones:
the second fossil fuel list includes fossil fuel types, vehicle types, and travel information for each type of vehicle of the target enterprise; the vehicle types include: vehicles and ships; the second electricity consumption list comprises the charging amount of each charging of each vehicle and the corresponding region of each charging.
The determining the carbon emissions generated by the vehicles of the target enterprise in each historical year according to the second fossil fuel list and the second electricity consumption list consumed by the vehicles of the target enterprise in each historical year comprises: determining carbon emission generated by the first type of vehicles in each historical year according to the fossil fuel types corresponding to the first type of vehicles in each historical year and the running information corresponding to the vehicles; determining carbon emission generated by the second type of vehicles in each historical year according to the fossil fuel types corresponding to the second type of vehicles in each historical year and the running information corresponding to the ship; according to the charging amount of each charging corresponding to each historical year and the region corresponding to each charging of each vehicle, determining the carbon emission generated by using the electric energy by all vehicles in each historical year; the carbon emissions generated by the first type of vehicles, the carbon emissions generated by the second type of vehicles, and the carbon emissions generated by all vehicles using electric energy for each historical year are summed up as the carbon emissions generated by the vehicles of the target business for each historical year.
The vehicle type is the running information corresponding to the vehicle, and the running information is as follows: for each fossil fuel used by the vehicle, the average per-vehicle consumption of that fossil fuel used in each historical year and the total number of vehicles that used that fossil fuel in each historical year.
The carbon emissions produced by the first class of vehicles at each historical year were calculated by the following formula:
in the formula (9), E 1 Refers to the carbon emissions produced by the first type of vehicle in tons per historical year; refers to the j-th fossil fuel, m, used by the vehicle 1 Refers to the number of types of fossil fuels used by the vehicle; p (P) j Refers to the total number of vehicles using the jth fossil fuel in each historical year; AD (analog to digital) converter j Refers to the activity level of the jth fossil fuel in millions of kilojoules GJ in each historical year; EF (electric F) j Refers to the carbon emission factor of the j-th fossil fuel in tons of carbon dioxide per million kilojoules (tCO) 2 /GJ)。
The carbon emission factor of the j-th fossil fuel is calculated by the following formula:
in the formula (10) of the present invention, j refers to the carbon emission factor of the j-th fossil fuel in tons of carbon dioxide per million kilojoules (tCO) 2 /GJ)；CC j Refers to the carbon content per unit heating value of the j-th fossil fuel, which is expressed in tons of carbon per million kilojoules (tC/GJ); o j Refers to the carbon oxidation rate of the j-th fossil fuel; 44/12 is the ratio of carbon dioxide to carbon molecular weight.
The activity level of the jth fossil fuel at each historical year was calculated by the following formula:
AD j ＝NCV j ×FC j (11)
in the formula (11), AD j Refers to the activity level of the jth fossil fuel in millions of kilojoules GJ in each historical year; nCV j Refers to the average low heat generation of the j-th fossil fuel, and is in millions of kilojoules per ton (GJ/t) for the j-th fossil fuel and in millions of kilojoules per kilocubic meter (GJ/×10) for the j-th fossil fuel 4 Nm 3 )；FC j Refers toAverage per-vehicle consumption of the jth fossil fuel in tons for the jth fossil fuel and tens of thousands of cubic meters for the jth fossil fuel (10 4 Nm 3 )。
The running information corresponding to the type of the transportation means is as follows: for each fossil fuel used by a vessel, the average per-vessel consumption of that fossil fuel used in each historical year and the total number of vessels using that fossil fuel in each historical year.
The carbon emissions produced by the second class of vehicles at each historical year were calculated by the following formula:
In the formula (12), E 2 Refers to the carbon emissions produced by the second type of vehicle in tons per historical year; refers to the kth fossil fuel, m, for ship use 2 Refers to the number of types of fossil fuels used by the vessel; v (V) k Refers to the total number of vessels that use the kth fossil fuel in each historical year; AD (analog to digital) converter k Refers to the activity level of the kth fossil fuel in millions of kilojoules GJ in each historical year; EF (electric F) k Refers to the carbon emission factor of the kth fossil fuel in tons of carbon dioxide per million kilojoules (tCO) 2 /GJ)。
The carbon emission factor of the kth fossil fuel is calculated by the following formula:
in the formula (13) of the present invention, k refers to the carbon emission factor of the kth fossil fuel in tons of carbon dioxide per million kilojoules (tCO) 2 /GJ)；CC k Refers to the carbon content per unit heating value of the kth fossil fuel, in tons of carbon per million kilojoules (tC/GJ); OF (OF) k Refers to the carbon oxidation of the kth fossil fuelA rate; 44/12 is the ratio of carbon dioxide to carbon molecular weight.
The activity level of the kth fossil fuel in each historical year was calculated by the following formula:
AD k ＝NCV k ×FC k (14)
in the formula (14), AD k Refers to the activity level of the kth fossil fuel in millions of kilojoules GJ in each historical year; NCV (NCV) k Refers to the average low-grade heating value of the kth fossil fuel, and is expressed in millions of kilojoules per ton (GJ/t) for the kth fossil fuel and in millions of kilojoules per kilocubic meter (GJ/×10) for the kth fossil fuel, and is expressed in gas fuel 4 Nm 3 )；FC k Mean average per-vessel consumption of kth fossil fuel in each historical year, in tons for kth fossil fuel, and in tens of thousands of cubic meters for gaseous fuel for kth fossil fuel (10 4 Nm 3 )。
The carbon emissions generated using electrical energy for all vehicles in each historical year were calculated by the following formula:
in the formula (16), E d Refers to the carbon emissions generated by all vehicles using electricity for each historical year, ε refers to the ε -th vehicle, ε 0 Refers to the number of all vehicles, α refers to the alpha-th charge, α 0 Refers to the total number of charges corresponding to each vehicle; e (E) ε，α Refers to the charge quantity, EF, of the alpha th charge of the epsilon th vehicle ε，α Refers to the zone emission factor corresponding to the epsilon th vehicle alpha th charge.
The third list of fossil fuels includes: the type of fossil fuel and the carbon emission factor of each fossil fuel, the annual fuel consumption, and the type of fossil fuel and the carbon emission factor of each fossil fuel, the annual fuel consumption, which correspond to each port machinery at each emission stage. Further, the annual fuel consumption of each fossil fuel for each loading and unloading device and the annual fuel consumption of each fossil fuel for each port machinery can be determined.
The determining the carbon emissions generated by the loading and unloading operation of the target enterprise in each historical year according to the third fossil fuel list consumed by the loading and unloading operation of the target enterprise in each historical year comprises the following steps:
for each historical year, calculating carbon emissions of all loading and unloading equipment in the historical year according to the type of fossil fuel corresponding to each loading and unloading equipment in the historical year, the carbon emission factor of each fossil fuel and the annual fuel consumption; for each historical year, calculating the carbon emission of all the harbor machines in the historical year according to the corresponding fossil fuel types and carbon emission factors and fuel annual consumption of each fossil fuel in each emission stage of each harbor machine in the historical year; the carbon emissions of all loading and unloading equipment of each historical year are summed with the carbon emissions of all port machines as the carbon emissions generated by the loading and unloading operations of the target enterprise in each historical year.
The carbon emissions of all loading and unloading equipment were calculated by the following formula:
in the formula (17), E z Refers to carbon emissions, x of all handling equipment 3 Refers to the x th 3 Seed handling equipment, n 3 Refers to the number of types of handling equipment, y 3 Refers to the y-th used by the loading and unloading equipment 3 Fossil fuel, m 3 Refers to the number of types of fossil fuels used by the loading and unloading equipment,refers to the x th 3 Seed handling apparatus use y 3 Annual fuel consumption of fossil fuels, +.>Refers to the x th 3 Seed handling apparatus use y 3 Carbon emission factor of fossil fuels.
The loading and unloading equipment refers to equipment such as a forklift for carrying down the load on the vehicle.
The carbon emissions of all harbor machines were calculated by the following formula:
in the formula (18), E d Refers to carbon emissions, x of all harbor machines 4 Refers to every x 4 Seed harbor machine, n 4 Refers to the number of types of harbor machines, y 4 Refers to the y-th of the port machinery 4 Fossil fuel, m 4 Refers to the number of types of fossil fuels used by port machinery, k refers to the kth discharge stage, M refers to the total number of discharge stages,refers to the x th 4 Seed harbor machine use y 4 Annual fuel consumption of fossil fuel in the kth emission phase, < >>Refers to the x th 4 Seed harbor machine use y 4 Carbon emission factor of fossil fuel in the kth emission stage.
The port machinery refers to mechanical equipment such as a crane, a conveyor belt and a crane which are responsible for carrying cargoes on a ship in the port, and the discharge stage refers to the situation that the gap between acting and carbon discharge is too large when the crane, the conveyor belt and the crane are used for carrying heavy objects and returning to the carrying position of the ship after carrying cargoes, so that the gap between carbon discharge is too large, and further the discharge stage needs to be distinguished to calculate the carbon discharge of the port machinery.
Based on the same application conception, the embodiment of the present application further provides a carbon emission prediction device corresponding to the carbon emission prediction method provided in the foregoing embodiment, and since the principle of solving the problem by the device in the embodiment of the present application is similar to that of the carbon emission prediction method in the foregoing embodiment of the present application, the implementation of the device may refer to the implementation of the method, and the repetition is omitted.
As shown in fig. 3, fig. 3 is a functional block diagram of a carbon emission prediction device according to an embodiment of the present application. The carbon emission prediction apparatus 10 includes: the system comprises an acquisition module 101, a determination module 102, a first prediction module 103 and a second prediction module 104.
An obtaining module 101, configured to obtain a predicted year, a historical cargo turnover list, and a historical carbon emission list of a target enterprise, where the historical cargo turnover list includes each historical year and a cargo turnover corresponding to the historical year, and the historical carbon emission list includes each historical year and a carbon emission corresponding to the historical year;
a determining module 102, configured to determine a fitting function between a cargo turnover corresponding to each historical year and a cargo turnover corresponding to a preset year before the historical year;
a first prediction module 103, configured to predict a predicted turnover of goods for the predicted year according to the turnover of goods for a preset year before the predicted year and the fitting function;
The second prediction module 104 is configured to determine a predicted carbon emission for the predicted year according to the predicted cargo turnover, the cargo turnover for a preset year before the predicted year, and the carbon emission for the preset year before the predicted year.
Based on the same application concept, referring to fig. 4, which is a schematic structural diagram of an electronic device provided in an embodiment of the present application, the electronic device 20 includes: a processor 201, a memory 202 and a bus 203, said memory 202 storing machine readable instructions executable by said processor 201, said processor 201 and said memory 202 communicating via said bus 203 when the electronic device 20 is running, said machine readable instructions being executed by said processor 201 to perform the steps of the carbon emission prediction method as described in any of the above embodiments.
In particular, the machine readable instructions, when executed by the processor 201, may perform the following: the method comprises the steps of obtaining a predicted year, a historical cargo turnover list and a historical carbon emission list of a target enterprise, wherein the historical cargo turnover list comprises each historical year and cargo turnover corresponding to the historical year, and the historical carbon emission list comprises each historical year and carbon emission corresponding to the historical year; determining a fitting function between the cargo turnover corresponding to each historical year and the cargo turnover corresponding to the preset year before the historical year; predicting the predicted cargo turnover of the predicted year according to the cargo turnover of the preset year before the predicted year and the fitting function; and determining the predicted carbon emission of the predicted year according to the predicted cargo turnover, the cargo turnover of the preset year before the predicted year and the carbon emission of the preset year before the predicted year.
Based on the same application concept, the present embodiments also provide a computer readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which when executed by a processor performs the steps of the carbon emission prediction method provided by the above embodiments.
Specifically, the storage medium can be a general storage medium, such as a mobile disk, a hard disk, and the like, when a computer program on the storage medium is run, the above-mentioned carbon emission prediction method can be executed, the predicted cargo turnover of the predicted year is determined according to a fitting function corresponding to the historical cargo turnover of the target enterprise and the preset year before the historical year, and then the predicted carbon emission of the predicted year is determined according to the predicted cargo turnover, the cargo turnover of the preset year before the predicted year, and the carbon emission of the preset year before the predicted year, so that the technical problem that the target enterprise cannot predict the carbon emission in time, and thus excessive carbon emission is caused because the target enterprise cannot replace equipment in time is solved, and the technical effect of providing the basis for replacing equipment for the target enterprise, thereby reducing the carbon emission is achieved.
It will be clear to those skilled in the art that, for convenience and brevity of description, specific working procedures of the above-described system and apparatus may refer to corresponding procedures in the foregoing method embodiments, which are not described herein again. In the several embodiments provided in this application, it should be understood that the disclosed systems, devices, and methods may be implemented in other manners. The above-described apparatus embodiments are merely illustrative, for example, the division of the units is merely a logical function division, and there may be other manners of division in actual implementation, and for example, multiple units or components may be combined or integrated into another system, or some features may be omitted, or not performed. Alternatively, the coupling or direct coupling or communication connection shown or discussed with each other may be through some communication interface, device or unit indirect coupling or communication connection, which may be in electrical, mechanical or other form.
The units described as separate units may or may not be physically separate, and units shown as units may or may not be physical units, may be located in one place, or may be distributed on a plurality of network units. Some or all of the units may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of this embodiment.
In addition, each functional unit in each embodiment of the present application may be integrated in one processing unit, or each unit may exist alone physically, or two or more units may be integrated in one unit.
The functions, if implemented in the form of software functional units and sold or used as a stand-alone product, may be stored in a non-volatile computer readable storage medium executable by a processor. Based on such understanding, the technical solutions of the present application may be embodied in essence or a part contributing to the prior art or a part of the technical solutions, or in the form of a software product, which is stored in a storage medium and includes several instructions to cause a computer device (which may be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) to perform all or part of the steps of the methods described in the embodiments of the present application. And the aforementioned storage medium includes: a U-disk, a removable hard disk, a Read-Only Memory (ROM), a random access Memory (Random Access Memory, RAM), a magnetic disk, or an optical disk, or other various media capable of storing program codes.
The foregoing is merely a specific embodiment of the present application, but the protection scope of the present application is not limited thereto, and any person skilled in the art can easily think about changes or substitutions within the technical scope of the present application, and the changes or substitutions are covered in the protection scope of the present application. Therefore, the protection scope of the present application shall be subject to the protection scope of the claims.

Claims (10)

1. A method for predicting carbon emissions, the method comprising:
acquiring a predicted year, a historical cargo turnover list and a historical carbon emission list of a target enterprise, wherein the historical cargo turnover list comprises each historical year and cargo turnover corresponding to the historical year, the historical carbon emission list comprises each historical year and carbon emission corresponding to the historical year, and the carbon emission corresponding to each historical year is the sum of carbon emission generated by the office of the target enterprise, carbon emission generated by a vehicle and carbon emission generated in loading and unloading operation;
determining a fitting function between the cargo turnover corresponding to each historical year and the cargo turnover corresponding to the preset year after the historical year;
predicting the predicted cargo turnover of the predicted year according to the cargo turnover of the preset year before the predicted year and the fitting function;
Determining a predicted carbon emission for the predicted year based on the predicted turnover of cargo, the turnover of cargo for a predetermined year prior to the predicted year, and the carbon emission for the predetermined year prior to the predicted year;
the fit function between each historical year and the cargo turnover corresponding to the preset year after the historical year is:
wherein,refers to the cargo turnover in the historic year n years,/->Refers to the preset year, ++>Refers to +.o after n years of history>Cargo turnover amount of preset year, < >>Refers to +.>Fitting function first coefficient corresponding to preset year,>refers toPresetting a fitting function second coefficient corresponding to the year;
the method further comprises the steps of: acquiring preset carbon emission set by a user; determining whether the predicted carbon emissions are greater than a preset carbon emissions; if the predicted carbon emission is greater than the preset carbon emission, prompting a user to replace the existing equipment; if the predicted carbon emissions are less than or equal to the preset carbon emissions, the user is not prompted to replace the existing equipment.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the method further comprises:
multiplying the first coefficient, the second coefficient and the third coefficient set by a user with the predicted carbon emission respectively to obtain a first predicted carbon emission corresponding to new energy equipment used in the predicted year, a second predicted carbon emission corresponding to energy efficiency improving equipment used in the predicted year and a third predicted carbon emission corresponding to existing equipment used in the predicted year;
Multiplying the carbon emission rate of the new energy equipment set by the user with the first predicted carbon emission to obtain a first product, and multiplying the energy efficiency improvement rate of the energy efficiency improvement equipment set by the user with the second predicted carbon emission to obtain a second product;
adding the first product, the second product and the third predicted carbon emissions to obtain a target predicted carbon emissions for the predicted year;
determining whether the target predicted carbon emissions are greater than a preset carbon emissions;
and if the target predicted carbon emission is greater than the preset carbon emission, prompting a user to modify the first coefficient, the second coefficient and the third coefficient.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein the corresponding carbon emissions for each historical year are calculated by:
determining carbon emissions generated by the target enterprise in each historical year office according to a first fossil fuel list and a first power consumption list of the target enterprise in each historical year office;
determining carbon emissions generated by the vehicles of the target enterprises in each historical year according to a second fossil fuel list and a second power consumption list consumed by the vehicles of the target enterprises in each historical year;
Determining carbon emissions generated by the loading and unloading operation of the target enterprise in each historical year according to a third fossil fuel list consumed by the loading and unloading operation of the target enterprise in each historical year;
the carbon emissions generated by the office, the carbon emissions generated by the vehicle, and the carbon emissions generated in the loading and unloading operations are summed up for each historical year as the carbon emissions of the target business for each historical year.
4. The method of claim 3, wherein the second list of fossil fuels includes a fossil fuel type, a vehicle type, and travel information corresponding to the vehicle type for each type of vehicle of the target enterprise; the vehicle types include: vehicles and ships; the second power consumption list comprises the charging amount of each charging of each vehicle and the region corresponding to each charging;
the determining the carbon emissions generated by the vehicles of the target enterprise in each historical year according to the second fossil fuel list and the second electricity consumption list consumed by the vehicles of the target enterprise in each historical year comprises:
determining carbon emission generated by the first type of vehicles in each historical year according to the fossil fuel types corresponding to the first type of vehicles in each historical year and the running information corresponding to the vehicles;
Determining carbon emission generated by the second type of vehicles in each historical year according to the fossil fuel types corresponding to the second type of vehicles in each historical year and the running information corresponding to the ship;
according to the charging amount of each charging corresponding to each historical year and the region corresponding to each charging of each vehicle, determining the carbon emission generated by using the electric energy by all vehicles in each historical year;
the carbon emissions generated by the first type of vehicles, the carbon emissions generated by the second type of vehicles, and the carbon emissions generated by all vehicles using electric energy for each historical year are summed up as the carbon emissions generated by the vehicles of the target business for each historical year.
5. A method according to claim 3, wherein the third list of fossil fuels comprises: the type of fossil fuel corresponding to each loading and unloading device, the carbon emission factor of each fossil fuel, the annual fuel consumption, the type of fossil fuel corresponding to each port machinery in each emission stage, the carbon emission factor of each fossil fuel, the annual fuel consumption;
the determining the carbon emissions generated by the loading and unloading operation of the target enterprise in each historical year according to the third fossil fuel list consumed by the loading and unloading operation of the target enterprise in each historical year comprises the following steps:
For each historical year, calculating carbon emissions of all loading and unloading equipment in the historical year according to the type of fossil fuel corresponding to each loading and unloading equipment in the historical year, the carbon emission factor of each fossil fuel and the annual fuel consumption;
for each historical year, calculating the carbon emission of all the harbor machines in the historical year according to the corresponding fossil fuel types and carbon emission factors and fuel annual consumption of each fossil fuel in each emission stage of each harbor machine in the historical year;
the carbon emissions of all loading and unloading equipment of each historical year are summed with the carbon emissions of all port machines as the carbon emissions generated by the loading and unloading operations of the target enterprise in each historical year.
6. The method of claim 5, wherein the carbon emissions of all handling equipment are calculated by the following formula:
in the above-mentioned formula(s),refers to carbon emissions of all handling equipment, +.>Refers to->Seed handling device->Refers to the number of types of handling equipment，/>Refers to the +.f of the handling device>Fossil fuel, jersey>Refers to the number of kinds of fossil fuel used by the loading and unloading equipment, < >>Refers to->Seed handling device use- >Annual fuel consumption of fossil fuels, +.>Refers to->Seed handling device use->Carbon emission factor of fossil fuels.
7. The method of claim 5, wherein the carbon emissions of all harbor machines are calculated by the formula:
in the above-mentioned formula(s),refers to carbon emission of all harbor machines, < >>Refers to every->Seed harbor machine, 10>Refers to the number of types of harbor machines, < >>Refers to the +.f of port machinery use>Fossil fuel, jersey>Refers to the number of types of fossil fuels used in port machinery, k refers to the kth discharge stage, M refers to the total number of discharge stages, +.>Refers to->Seed harbor machine use->Fossil fuel is in->Annual fuel consumption in the individual emission phases +.>Refers to->Seed harbor machine use->Fossil fuel is in->Carbon emission factor for each emission stage.
8. A carbon emission prediction apparatus, characterized in that the apparatus comprises:
the system comprises an acquisition module, a storage module and a loading module, wherein the acquisition module is used for acquiring a predicted year, a historical cargo turnover list and a historical carbon emission list of a target enterprise, the historical cargo turnover list comprises each historical year and cargo turnover corresponding to the historical year, the historical carbon emission list comprises each historical year and carbon emission corresponding to the historical year, and the carbon emission corresponding to each historical year is the sum of carbon emission generated by offices of the target enterprise, carbon emission generated by vehicles and carbon emission generated in loading and unloading operation;
The determining module is used for determining a fitting function between the cargo turnover corresponding to each historical year and the cargo turnover corresponding to the preset year after the historical year;
the first prediction module is used for predicting the predicted cargo turnover of the predicted year according to the cargo turnover of the preset year before the predicted year and the fitting function;
the second prediction module is used for determining predicted carbon emission of the predicted year according to the predicted cargo turnover, the cargo turnover of the preset year before the predicted year and the carbon emission of the preset year before the predicted year;
the fit function between each historical year and the cargo turnover corresponding to the preset year after the historical year is:
wherein,refers to the cargo turnover in the historic year n years,/->Refers to the preset year, ++>Refers to +.o after n years of history>Cargo turnover amount of preset year, < >>Refers to +.>Fitting function first coefficient corresponding to preset year,>refers toPresetting a fitting function second coefficient corresponding to the year;
the apparatus further comprises: the preset carbon emission acquisition module is used for acquiring preset carbon emission set by a user; the comparison module is also used for determining whether the predicted carbon emission is greater than the preset carbon emission; the prompting module is used for prompting a user to replace the existing equipment if the predicted carbon emission is larger than the preset carbon emission; if the predicted carbon emissions are less than or equal to the preset carbon emissions, the user is not prompted to replace the existing equipment.
9. An electronic device, comprising: a processor, a memory and a bus, said memory storing machine readable instructions executable by said processor, said processor and said memory communicating via said bus when the electronic device is running, said machine readable instructions when executed by said processor performing the steps of the carbon emission prediction method according to any one of claims 1 to 7.
10. A computer readable storage medium, characterized in that the computer readable storage medium has stored thereon a computer program which, when executed by a processor, performs the steps of the carbon emission prediction method according to any of claims 1 to 7.
CN202310389819.0A 2023-04-12 2023-04-12 Carbon emission prediction method and device Active CN116468163B (en)

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