CN115689072A - Road freight carbon emission prediction method based on traffic transportation turnover - Google Patents
Road freight carbon emission prediction method based on traffic transportation turnover Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a road freight carbon emission prediction method based on traffic transportation turnover number, which comprises the following steps: obtaining carbon emission intensity variation data for a research area; obtaining road freight change data; selecting a weight factor; obtaining the carbon emission intensity of the road freight turnover and the road freight turnover of the reference year in the research area; obtaining the turnover rate data of the road freight transportation; the method can effectively avoid infinite problems caused by infinite increase of carbon emission prediction of highway freight, improve the reliability of prediction results, scientifically and effectively predict the carbon emission of the highway freight field, and realize effective prediction of medium and long-term trend development of the carbon emission of the highway freight field.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of carbon emission prediction, and particularly relates to a road freight carbon emission prediction method based on traffic transportation turnover number.
Background
At present, carbon emission in the field of transportation of China accounts for about 9% of the whole society, wherein carbon emission in road transportation accounts for more than 30% of the whole field of transportation, carbon emission in road cargo transportation accounts for more than 80% of the road transportation, and prediction of carbon emission trend in the field of road cargo transportation provides powerful data support for carbon peak-to-peak work in the field of transportation.
The existing method for predicting carbon emission of transportation highway freight transport is mainly based on short-term prediction of 5-10 years, because of the relation of the prediction age limit, the change of road transportation demand does not show infinite increase phenomenon, and the change of carbon emission intensity of road freight transport turnover does not show abnormal phenomenon less than zero, the method can be approximately close to the actual development condition in the prediction age limit range, but the carbon peak carbon neutralization and the working time are in the time range of 15-30 years, if the development saturation effect is not considered, the prediction method can greatly deviate from the actual condition for demand and carbon emission intensity prediction in a longer time range, show that the demand does not accord with social economic development and does not match with the building bearing capacity of road infrastructure, cause the inaccuracy and the non-referability of carbon emission development trend prediction in the transportation highway freight transport field, and cannot effectively reflect the social economic development law and the road infrastructure building development level, and further cannot provide scientific and effective data support for carbon emission reduction working decisions in the highway freight transport field, and the method for predicting the carbon emission of transportation turnover based on transportation highway is provided for the method.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a road freight carbon emission prediction method based on traffic transportation turnover to solve the problems in the background technology.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention provides the following technical scheme: a road freight carbon emission prediction method based on traffic transportation turnover number comprises the following steps:
aiming at a research area, according to the carbon emission intensity of road freight turnover over the years, obtaining carbon emission intensity change data through a carbon emission intensity change factor calculation formula;
obtaining road freight change data through a road freight change factor calculation formula according to the road freight weight factors of the years in the research area;
selecting a weight factor according to the influence of the road freight weight factor of the past year in the research area on the prediction of the road freight turnover;
selecting a reference year for predicting the carbon emission amount of road freight, and obtaining the carbon emission amount of road freight turnover and the road freight turnover of the reference year in the research area through a calculation formula for the carbon emission amount of road freight turnover and a calculation formula for the road freight turnover;
obtaining a structural adjustment value of road freight according to the future traffic structure adjustment in the research area, and obtaining road freight turnover quantity transfer-out proportion data through a road freight turnover quantity transfer-out proportion calculation formula;
the carbon emission prediction model of the road freight transportation is constructed through a calculation formula of carbon emission intensity of turnover of road freight transportation, a calculation formula of turnover of road freight transportation and a calculation formula of turnover of road freight transportation, and the carbon emission of the road freight transportation in any year in the future in the research area is predicted by substituting the carbon emission intensity change data, the road freight transportation change data, the weight factor and the data of turnover of road freight transportation into the carbon emission prediction model of the road freight transportation.
Preferably, the carbon emission intensity change data is obtained according to the carbon emission intensity of the road freight turnover number in the past year and through a carbon emission intensity change factor calculation formula aiming at the research area;
wherein the carbon emission intensity of the road freight turnover over the years is C j ，j=0，-1，-2，-3…；
j represents a year label, j =0 represents the current year; j < 0 represents a historical year based on the current year;
the carbon emission intensity variation factor comprises average variation rate of carbon emission intensity over years
Average release coefficient of carbon emission intensity in years
The carbon emission intensity variation factor calculation formula comprises the average variation rate of carbon emission intensity over the years
Calculation formula and average slow coefficient of carbon emission intensity over years
Calculating a formula;
average rate of change of carbon emission intensity over years
The calculation formula is shown as formula (1):
the average slowing coefficient of carbon emission intensity in the past year
The calculation formula is shown as formula (2):
wherein 870640 represents the partial derivative,
representing the first partial derivative with respect to T for the variable C,
representing the second partial derivative of the variable C with respect to T;
t represents the year time variable of the calendar year, \8706andT represents the time span.
Preferably, the highway freight change data is obtained through a highway freight change factor calculation formula according to the highway freight weight factors of the years in the research area;
wherein the road freight weight factor comprises the road freight turnover M 1 Road construction mileage M 2 And total value of production M in the study area 3 ；
The road freight variation factor comprises the average change rate of road freight
And road freight average slow-down coefficient
Then the calculation formula of the road freight change factor comprises a calculation formula of the average change rate of road freight and a calculation formula of the average delay factor of road freight;
the calculation formula of the average change rate of the road freight is shown as the formula (3):
the calculation formula of the road freight average slow-down coefficient is shown as a formula (4):
wherein ,
representing the first partial derivative of the year time T for the ith M variable,
representing the second partial derivative of the time of year T for the kth M variable.
Preferably, a weight factor is selected according to the influence of the road freight weight factors of all the years in the research area on the prediction of the road freight turnover;
wherein the weight factor is
And
；
wherein ,
represent
The influence weight factors of the three average rate of change variables,
represent
Influence weight factors of the three average slow-down coefficient variables;
and is
And is in
The sum of which is 1, i.e. 100%, regardless of how many weight factors, the sum of which is equal to 1,
the same is true.
Preferably, the carbon emission intensity of the road freight turnover quantity and the road freight turnover quantity of the reference year in the research area are obtained through a carbon emission intensity calculation formula of the road freight turnover quantity and a calculation formula of the road freight turnover quantity of the reference year;
the carbon emission intensity of the turnover number of the road freight is C N Carbon emission intensity of road freight turnover C N The calculation formula (2) is shown in formula (5):
n represents the number of year intervals from the selection reference year;
the turnover of the road freight is X N Then the said road freight turnover number X N The calculation formula (2) is shown in formula (6):
preferably, the structure adjustment value of the road freight is obtained according to the future traffic structure adjustment in the research area, and the road freight turnover rate transfer-out proportion data is obtained through a road freight turnover rate transfer-out proportion calculation formula;
wherein the turnover rate of the road freight transportation is as follows
。
Preferably, a road freight carbon emission prediction model is constructed through a road freight turnover carbon emission intensity calculation formula, a road freight turnover calculation formula and a road freight turnover proportion calculation formula, and road freight carbon emission of any future year in the research area is predicted by substituting carbon emission intensity change data, road freight change data, a weight factor and road freight turnover proportion data into the road freight carbon emission prediction model;
the calculation formula of the road freight carbon emission prediction model is shown as formula (7):
compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
the invention introduces a change rate slowing coefficient to ensure that the change rate is in the turnover quantity M of the road freight 1 Road construction mileage M 2 And total value of production M in the study area 3 The method has the advantages that the method shows increase (or decrease) under the constraint of influence factors, gradually slows down the trend, better accords with the actual trend of simulating the change of the carbon emission intensity of the road freight turnover and the unit turnover, introduces a curve concept into a prediction mathematical model to simulate the development trend of the road freight turnover and the carbon emission intensity, enables the development trend of the change rate to evolve under the constraint through the combination of the change rate and the change rate slowing-down coefficient, shows a saturation effect when approaching the upper limit (or the lower limit) range, can effectively avoid infinite problems caused by infinite increase of the carbon emission amount prediction of the road freight, improves the reliability of the prediction result, has clear principle, and is scientific, practical and instructive in calculation result, can more scientifically and effectively predict the carbon emission amount of the road freight under the premise of meeting the social economic development level and reflecting the construction level of transportation infrastructure, can realize the reduction of the carbon emission amount of the road freight and advance of the peak-to the peak-year carbon emission amount of the road freight transportation field aiming at different dynamics and modes of transportation structure adjustment, and can provide data support for the carbon peak-to the carbon emission behavior field of the transportation industry and realize the effective trend of the long-term carbon emission prediction of the carbon emission amount of the road freight transportation.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow diagram of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram illustrating the development trend of the freight turnover on roads in the research area according to the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram illustrating the variation of intensity of carbon emission in road freight turnover in a research area according to the present invention;
fig. 4 is a schematic diagram of the trend of predicting carbon emissions in the field of road freight under various transportation structure adjustment forces according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be obtained by a person skilled in the art without making any creative effort based on the embodiments in the present invention, belong to the protection scope of the present invention.
Referring to fig. 1, the method for predicting carbon emission of road freight based on transportation turnover provided by the invention includes the following steps:
aiming at a research area, according to the carbon emission intensity of road freight turnover over the years, the carbon emission intensity change data is obtained through a carbon emission intensity change factor calculation formula;
wherein the carbon emission intensity of the road freight turnover over the years is C j ，j=0，-1，-2，-3…；
j represents a year label, j =0 represents the current year; j < 0 represents a historical year based on the current year;
the carbon emission intensity variation factor comprises average variation rate of carbon emission intensity over the years
Average release coefficient of carbon emission intensity in years
Then the calculation formula of the carbon emission intensity variation factor comprises the carbon emission intensity over the yearsAverage rate of change
Calculation formula and average slow coefficient of carbon emission intensity over years
Calculating a formula;
average rate of change of carbon emission intensity over years
The calculation formula is shown in formula (1):
average carbon emission intensity slowing coefficient of years
The calculation formula is shown in formula (2):
wherein 870640 represents the partial derivative,
representing the first partial derivative with respect to T for the variable C,
representing the second partial derivative of the variable C with respect to T;
t represents the time variable of the year of the past, \ 8706and T represents the time span;
obtaining road freight change data through a road freight change factor calculation formula according to the road freight weight factors of the years in the research area;
wherein, the road freight weight factor comprises the road freight turnover M 1 Road construction mileage M 2 And study of regional birthTotal production value M 3 ；
The road freight variation factor comprises the average road freight variation rate
And road freight average slowing coefficient
Then the calculation formula of the road freight change factor comprises a calculation formula of the average change rate of the road freight and a calculation formula of the average delay factor of the road freight;
the calculation formula of the average change rate of road freight is shown as formula (3):
the calculation formula of the road freight average slow-down coefficient is shown as the formula (4):
wherein ,
representing the first partial derivative of the year time T for the ith M variable,
representing the second partial derivative of the time of year T for the kth M variable.
Selecting a weight factor according to the influence of the road freight weight factor of the past year in the research area on the prediction of the road freight turnover;
wherein the weight factor is
And
；
wherein ,
to represent
The influence weight factors of the three average rate of change variables,
to represent
Influence weight factors of the three average slow-down coefficient variables;
and is
And is in
The sum of which is 1, i.e. 100%, regardless of how many weight factors, the sum of which is equal to 1,
in the same way;
selecting a standard year for predicting the carbon emission of the road freight, and obtaining the carbon emission intensity of the road freight turnover and the road freight turnover of the standard year in the research area through a calculation formula of the carbon emission intensity of the road freight turnover and a calculation formula of the road freight turnover;
the carbon emission intensity of the turnover number of the road freight is C N Carbon emission intensity of road freight turnover C N The calculation formula (2) is shown in formula (5):
n represents the number of year intervals from the selected reference year, and if 2020 year is selected as the reference year, N =10 represents a predicted numerical value that the calculated result is 2020+10=2030 year, and N-1 represents 2029 years, which means that the numerical value in 2030 year depends on the predicted numerical value result in 2029 years;
the turnover of the road freight is X N Then the turnover X of the road freight N Is shown in equation (6):
obtaining a structural adjustment value of road freight according to the future traffic and transportation structural adjustment in the research area, and obtaining road freight turnover amount transfer proportion data through a road freight turnover amount transfer proportion calculation formula;
wherein the turnover rate of the road freight transportation is as follows
；
Constructing a road freight carbon emission prediction model by a road freight turnover carbon emission intensity calculation formula, a road freight turnover calculation formula and a road freight turnover proportion calculation formula, and predicting road freight carbon emission of any future year in the research area by substituting carbon emission intensity change data, road freight change data, a weight factor and road freight turnover proportion data into the road freight carbon emission prediction model;
the calculation formula of the road freight carbon emission prediction model is shown as formula (7):
preferably, a road freight carbon emission prediction model is constructed through a road freight turnover carbon emission intensity calculation formula, a road freight turnover calculation formula and a road freight turnover proportion calculation formula, and road freight carbon emission of any year in the future in the research area is predicted by substituting carbon emission intensity change data, road freight change data, a weight factor and road freight turnover proportion data into the road freight carbon emission prediction model;
the invention introduces a change rate slowing coefficient to ensure that the change rate is in the turnover quantity M of the road freight transportation 1 Road construction mileage M 2 And total value of production M in the study area 3 The method has the advantages that the method shows increase (or decrease) under the constraint of influence factors, gradually slows down the trend, better accords with the actual trend of simulating the change of the carbon emission intensity of the road freight turnover and the unit turnover, introduces a curve concept into a prediction mathematical model to simulate the development trend of the road freight turnover and the carbon emission intensity, enables the development trend of the change rate to evolve under the constraint through the combination of the change rate and the change rate slowing-down coefficient, shows a saturation effect when approaching the upper limit (or the lower limit) range, can effectively avoid infinite problems caused by infinite increase of the carbon emission amount prediction of the road freight, improves the reliability of the prediction result, has clear principle, and is scientific, practical and instructive in calculation result, can more scientifically and effectively predict the carbon emission amount of the road freight under the premise of meeting the social economic development level and reflecting the construction level of transportation infrastructure, can realize the reduction of the carbon emission amount of the road freight and advance of the peak-to the peak-year carbon emission amount of the road freight transportation field aiming at different dynamics and modes of transportation structure adjustment, and can provide data support for the carbon peak-to the carbon emission behavior field of the transportation industry and realize the effective trend of the long-term carbon emission prediction of the carbon emission amount of the road freight transportation.
The concrete implementation and application of the road freight carbon emission prediction method based on the traffic transportation turnover number provided by the invention are as follows:
as shown in table 1 below: historical data tables of road freight turnover, road traffic mileage (including grade road mileage and highway mileage), and regional gross production (GDP) of a certain research area:
table 1:
statement of turnover of road freight according to research area statistical yearbookObviously, the statistical range and the statistical method of the method are adjusted for three times in 2013, 2015 and 2019, the data of the method is not comparable with the data of the previous year, so that independent processing is carried out in different periods of time in the data analysis process, for the weight factors of three influence factors considered by the future change rate of the road freight turnover quantity of the research area, the influence of the road construction mileage reflecting the guarantee function is about 20 percent, the influence of the GDP reflecting the service function is about 40 percent, the influence of the change of the road freight turnover quantity per se reflecting the historical characteristics of the road freight is about 40 percent through early-stage analysis, and the formula is calculated according to the average change rate of the road freight
(i =1,2,3), calculation formula of road freight average slow coefficient
Weight factor of
And
obtaining the average change rate of the road freight, the average buffer coefficient of the road freight and the weight factor
And
as shown in table 2 below:
table 2:
substituting the weighted calculation value result into the turnover X of the road freight N The calculation formula of (2):
calculating to obtain the predicted verticality of the turnover amount of the highway freight in 2021-2040 years, and obtaining the lower limit change rate and the upper limit change rate of the turnover amount of the highway freight in the same way; when the traditional univariate prediction method is adopted, the change rate slow-down factor is 0, and the road freight turnover prediction structure is shown in table 3:
table 3: prediction result of turnover of road freight (unit: hundred million tons kilometers)
According to the data of table 3, the trend prediction of the road freight turnover development in the research area is shown in fig. 2;
as can be seen from fig. 2, the prediction method of the invention reflects the social economic development and infrastructure construction level of the research area to the road freight turnover prediction trend by fusing three factors of the road freight turnover, the road construction mileage and the total regional production value (GDP), and forms the upper and lower limit calculation of the development interval and the optimal expected value calculation; for the traditional univariate prediction method, even under the condition of taking a lower limit value of the change rate, the traditional univariate prediction method changes with a relatively mild trend only in a short period (2021-2026 years), and shows rapid growth on a medium-long term change trend (2027-2040 years), and does not have objectivity for reflecting the development of the social economy and the road freight field in a research area;
according to the energy consumption emission investigation work data in the field of road freight over the years in the research area, the carbon emission intensity data of road freight turnover over the years in the following table 4 is obtained, so that the carbon emission intensity change rate and the change rate slow-down factor can be calculated, as shown in the following table 4:
table 4:
substituting the data in the above table 4 into the road freight turnover carbon emission intensity C N The calculation formula of (c):
through the above calculation formula, the predicted value of carbon emission intensity of road freight turnover in 2021-2040 years in the research area can be calculated, as shown in table 5:
table 5: carbon emission intensity prediction value of road freight turnover (unit: kgCO 2/ten thousand tons kilometers)
With the predicted values of the carbon emission intensity of the turnover number of road freight in the above table 5, the prediction of the variation trend of the carbon emission intensity of the turnover number of road freight as shown in fig. 3 is obtained;
as can be seen from fig. 3, in a short period (2021-2026 years), the conventional univariate method is closer to the prediction method of the present invention for carbon emission intensity, and since the application level of the energy technology gradually enters a plateau stage in the long-term development process, the technical characteristic attribute of the industry is not reflected in the medium-and-long-term prediction (2027-2040 years) of the conventional univariate prediction method, the occurrence of the technical plateau stages such as the actual load rate, the vehicle light weight, the increase of the vehicle fuel consumption limit value standard and the like is better reflected in the medium-and-long-term change of the carbon emission intensity by introducing the change rate slowing factor in the prediction method of the present invention;
taking the predicted result value of the turnover amount of the road freight and the predicted value of the carbon emission intensity of the turnover amount of the road freight into consideration, wherein the turnover amount of the road freight brought by the adjustment of the transportation structure (namely, the freight needs to be transferred from the road to the railway freight and the waterway freight) is considered, the adjustment proportion can be divided into two types of constant proportion and variable proportion, and when the three adjustment modes of 5 percent and 10 percent of the turnover amount of the road freight and 5 percent of the turnover amount of the road freight in the first year are adopted, and then the adjustment modes of gradually increasing by 0.2 percent in the first year, the values are substituted into a prediction model of the carbon emission amount of the road freight:
the change trend of the carbon emission of the road freight transportation field year by year can be calculated, and the development trend of the carbon emission of the road freight transportation field is shown in a table 6:
table 6:
from the values of the prediction trend of the carbon emission amount of the road freight transportation field under the various transportation structure adjustment forces in the table 6, the prediction trend graph of the carbon emission amount of the road freight transportation field under the various transportation structure adjustment forces shown in fig. 4 is obtained:
as can be seen from table 6 and fig. 4, the prediction method adopted by the present invention can predict the carbon emission in the field of road freight more scientifically and effectively on the premise of meeting the social and economic development level and reflecting the construction level of transportation infrastructure, and can realize the reduction of the carbon emission in the field of road freight and the advance of the peak-to-peak year for different dynamics and modes of transportation structure adjustment, thereby providing data support for the carbon peak-to-peak action in the transportation industry.
Although embodiments of the present invention have been shown and described, it will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that changes, modifications, substitutions and alterations can be made in these embodiments without departing from the principles and spirit of the invention, the scope of which is defined in the appended claims and their equivalents.
Claims (7)
1. A road freight carbon emission prediction method based on traffic transportation turnover number is characterized by comprising the following steps:
aiming at a research area, according to the carbon emission intensity of road freight turnover over the years, obtaining carbon emission intensity change data through a carbon emission intensity change factor calculation formula;
obtaining road freight change data through a road freight change factor calculation formula according to the road freight weight factors of the years in the research area;
selecting a weight factor according to the influence of the road freight weight factor of the past year in the research area on the prediction of the road freight turnover;
selecting a standard year for predicting the carbon emission of the road freight, and obtaining the carbon emission intensity of the road freight turnover and the road freight turnover of the standard year in the research area through a calculation formula of the carbon emission intensity of the road freight turnover and a calculation formula of the road freight turnover;
obtaining a structural adjustment value of road freight according to the future traffic structure adjustment in the research area, and obtaining road freight turnover quantity transfer-out proportion data through a road freight turnover quantity transfer-out proportion calculation formula;
the carbon emission prediction model of the road freight transportation is constructed through a calculation formula of carbon emission intensity of turnover of road freight transportation, a calculation formula of turnover of road freight transportation and a calculation formula of turnover of road freight transportation, and the carbon emission of the road freight transportation in any year in the future in the research area is predicted by substituting the carbon emission intensity change data, the road freight transportation change data, the weight factor and the data of turnover of road freight transportation into the carbon emission prediction model of the road freight transportation.
2. The method for predicting road freight carbon emission based on traffic turnover according to claim 1, characterized in that: aiming at the research area, according to the carbon emission intensity of road freight turnover over the years, the carbon emission intensity change data is obtained through a carbon emission intensity change factor calculation formula;
wherein the carbon emission intensity of the road freight turnover over the years is C j ，j=0，-1，-2，-3…；
j denotes a year mark, j =0 denotes the current year; j < 0 represents a historical year based on the current year;
the carbon emission intensity variation factor comprises average variation rate of carbon emission intensity over years
Average slowing coefficient of carbon emission intensity in years
Then the carbon emission intensity variation factor calculation formula comprises the average variation rate of carbon emission intensity over the years
Calculation formula and average slowing coefficient of carbon emission intensity in years
Calculating a formula;
average rate of change of carbon emission intensity over the years
The calculation formula is shown as formula (1):
the average slow coefficient of carbon emission intensity in the past year
The calculation formula is shown as formula (2):
wherein 870640 represents the partial derivative,
representing the first partial derivative with respect to T for the variable C,
representing the second partial derivative of the variable C with respect to T;
t represents the year time variable of the calendar year, \8706andT represents the time span.
3. The method for predicting road freight carbon emission based on traffic turnover according to claim 2, characterized in that: obtaining road freight change data through a road freight change factor calculation formula according to the road freight weight factors of the years in the research area;
wherein the road freight weight factor comprises the road freight turnover M 1 Road construction mileage M 2 And total value of production M in the study area 3 ；
The road freight variation factor comprises the average change rate of road freight
And road freight average slowing coefficient
Then the calculation formula of the road freight change factor comprises a calculation formula of the average change rate of road freight and a calculation formula of the average delay factor of road freight;
the calculation formula of the average change rate of the road freight is shown as the formula (3):
the calculation formula of the road freight average slow-down coefficient is shown as a formula (4):
wherein ,
representing the first partial derivative of the year time T for the ith M variable,
representing the second partial derivative of the time of year T for the kth M variable.
4. The method for predicting road freight carbon emission based on traffic turnover according to claim 3, wherein the method comprises the following steps: selecting a weight factor according to the influence of the road freight weight factors of the years in the research area on the prediction of the road freight turnover;
wherein the weight factor is
And
；
wherein ,
to represent
The influence weight factors of the three average rate of change variables,
to represent
Influence weight factors of the three average slow-down coefficient variables;
and is
。
5. The method for predicting road freight carbon emission based on transportation turnover number according to claim 4, wherein the method comprises the following steps: selecting a reference year for predicting the carbon emission amount of road freight, and obtaining the carbon emission amount of road freight turnover and the road freight turnover of the reference year in the research area through a calculation formula for the carbon emission amount of road freight turnover and a calculation formula for the road freight turnover;
the carbon emission intensity of the turnover number of the road freight is C N Then the carbon emission intensity of the turnover number of the road freight is C N The calculation formula (2) is shown in formula (5):
n represents the number of year intervals from the selection reference year;
the turnover of the road freight is X N Then the said road freight turnover number X N Is shown in equation (6):
6. the method for predicting road freight carbon emission based on traffic turnover according to claim 5, wherein the method comprises the following steps: obtaining a structural adjustment value of road freight according to the future traffic and transportation structural adjustment in the research area, and obtaining road freight turnover amount turnover proportion data through a road freight turnover amount turnover proportion calculation formula;
wherein the turnover rate of the road freight transportation is as follows
。
7. The method for predicting road freight carbon emission based on transportation turnover number according to claim 6, wherein the method comprises the following steps: constructing a road freight carbon emission prediction model by a road freight turnover carbon emission intensity calculation formula, a road freight turnover calculation formula and a road freight turnover proportion calculation formula, and predicting road freight carbon emission of any year in the future in the research area by substituting carbon emission intensity change data, road freight change data, a weight factor and road freight turnover proportion data into the road freight carbon emission prediction model;
the calculation formula of the road freight carbon emission prediction model is shown as formula (7):
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| CN110991842A (en) * | 2019-11-22 | 2020-04-10 | 广东省交通集团有限公司 | Method for analyzing GDP coupling relation between cargo transportation volume and region on expressway |
| CN114066097A (en) * | 2021-11-29 | 2022-02-18 | 江苏交科能源科技发展有限公司 | Carbon emission prediction method |
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| CN110991842A (en) * | 2019-11-22 | 2020-04-10 | 广东省交通集团有限公司 | Method for analyzing GDP coupling relation between cargo transportation volume and region on expressway |
| CN114066097A (en) * | 2021-11-29 | 2022-02-18 | 江苏交科能源科技发展有限公司 | Carbon emission prediction method |
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| 秦新生;: "基于通径分析的货运业碳排放影响因素研究――以广东为例" * |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN116468163A (en) * | 2023-04-12 | 2023-07-21 | 交通运输部规划研究院 | Carbon emission prediction method and device |
| CN116468163B (en) * | 2023-04-12 | 2024-03-08 | 交通运输部规划研究院 | Carbon emission prediction method and device |
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