CN116384777B - Indoor VOCs exposure risk prediction method and device for children group - Google Patents
Indoor VOCs exposure risk prediction method and device for children group Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method and a device for predicting indoor VOCs exposure risk for children, comprising the following steps: combining the history data of children suffering from the indoor VOCs, calculating the possibility of occurrence of various gases of the VOCs in the indoor environment based on an uncertain theory, and judging the exposure possibility of the target toxic and harmful substances; calculating risk quotient of various gases of VOCs in the indoor environment, and judging the gas harmfulness of the target toxic and harmful substances as the dangerous degree of the toxic and harmful substances in the current indoor environment to the children group; based on expert experience, calculating expert scoring mean values of various gases of VOCs in the indoor environment for the children population, and performing detectability judgment on the target toxic and harmful substances; according to the three calculation results, evaluating risk values of various gases of VOCs in the indoor environment for children; and predicting the exposure risk of the indoor VOCs facing the child group according to the risk value evaluation result. The invention is less influenced by environmental factors, and stable results can be obtained in complex environments.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of indoor VOCs exposure, in particular to an indoor VOCs exposure prediction method and device for children groups.
Background
The life of modern people spends a lot of time indoors, especially a part of children stay in choking almost all the day, so the quality of indoor air can be said to directly influence the health of children. Among them, volatile organic compounds (Volatile Organic Compounds, VOCs) are also a main representative of indoor pollutants, and are considered to be an important cause of high incidence of diseases such as thrombocytopenia, various respiratory diseases, acute and chronic aplastic anemia, malignant leukemia, and even partial cancers.
To ensure that children are moving in a relatively safe environment, current detection methods for VOCs are commonly based on semiconductor metal oxide gas sensors sensing various gases to assess and predict the exposure risk of VOCs in the current environment. However, various gases exist in the indoor environment, and the sensitive materials in the sensor have the same problems for different gases, so that the detected gases cannot be accurately judged and the risks can be estimated. For example: the sensitivity of the porphyrin-based sensitive material to toluene and formaldehyde is the same, and when the two gases are simultaneously present in the environment, the formaldehyde gas is difficult to distinguish by the sensor.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a method and a device for predicting the exposure risk of indoor VOCs facing a child group, which are used for predicting the exposure risk of indoor VOCs facing the child group. The technical scheme is as follows:
in one aspect, a method for predicting exposure risk of indoor VOCs for a group of children is provided, including:
s1, combining historical data of children suffering from indoor VOCs, calculating the possibility of occurrence of various gases of the VOCs in an indoor environment based on an uncertain theory, and judging the exposure possibility of the target toxic and harmful substances;
s2, calculating risk quotient of various gases of VOCs in the indoor environment, and judging the gas harmfulness of the target toxic and harmful substances as the dangerous degree of the toxic and harmful substances in the current indoor environment to the children group;
s3, calculating expert scoring mean values of various gases of VOCs in the indoor environment for the children group based on expert experience, and performing detectability judgment on the target toxic and harmful substances;
s4, evaluating the risk values of the various gases of the VOCs in the indoor environment for children according to the possibility of occurrence of the various gases of the VOCs in the indoor environment, the risk quotient and the expert scoring average value;
s5, predicting the indoor VOCs exposure risk facing the children group according to the risk value evaluation results of various gases of the VOCs in the indoor environment.
Optionally, the S1 specifically includes:
the uncertain variable is defined, and the number of children disease history cases caused by various gases in VOCs every year is defined as an uncertain variable xi 1 , ξ 2 , … ,ξ m M is the kind of gas;
let z be 1 , z 2 , … ,z n Is an uncertainty variable ζ m N is the number of years;
in the embodiment of the invention, xi is arranged m To obey the normal uncertainty distribution N (e, σ), and the uncertainty variable for which the expected value eunknown, variance σ is unknown, is expressed as follows:
(1)
(2)
(3)
in uncertainty theory, entropy is defined as the difficulty level of predicting an uncertainty variable implementation, and assuming ζ is an uncertainty variable with an uncertainty distribution Φ, its entropy is defined as:
(4)
(5)
in the embodiment of the invention, assuming that ζ is obeying a normal uncertainty distribution N (e, σ), then:
(6)
simplifying and obtaining:
(7)
the probability of the occurrence of various gases of VOCs in the indoor environment is calculated as follows:
(8)
optionally, the S2 specifically includes:
taking the child health guidance concentration of the VOCs gas in the toxic substance and environmental health database TSCAT as a standard concentration, and taking the exposure concentration of the VOCs gas in the detected air as a quotient of risks of various gases of the VOCs in the indoor environment as the dangerous degree of toxic and harmful substances in the current environment;
assuming that j toxic and harmful substances p exist in the current environment 1 ,p 2 ,……p j (j=1, 2,3 …, m) with standard concentration of toxic and harmful substances p j standard The exposure concentration of toxic and harmful substances is p j exposure of Then the risk quotient:
(9)
optionally, the step S3 specifically includes:
using Delphi method, based on experience of n experts, assigning values to target toxic and harmful substances from visual, olfactory and tactile directions, wherein each index is 10 minutes, the target toxic and harmful substances are less easily perceived,the higher the score, the higher the detectability score A of the different dangerous materials j (j=1, 2,3 … …, m), the scores of different experts for a certain gas are expressed as(i=1, 2,3 …, n; j=1, 2,3 …, m), the scoring result is normalized:
(10)
and (3) integrating the opinions of all the experts, and calculating the average value of the expert scores of all the gases of the VOCs in the indoor environment for the children group:
(11)
optionally, the S4 specifically includes:
risk valueThe (j=1, 2,3 …, m) evaluation formula is as follows:
(12)
in another aspect, there is provided an indoor VOCs exposure risk prediction apparatus for a group of children, comprising:
the exposure possibility judging module is used for calculating the possibility of occurrence of various gases of the VOCs in the indoor environment based on an uncertain theory by combining the history data of the children suffering from the VOCs in the indoor environment and judging the exposure possibility of the target toxic and harmful substances;
the gas hazard judging module is used for calculating risk quotient of various gases of VOCs in the indoor environment, and judging gas hazard of the target toxic and harmful substances as the hazard degree of the toxic and harmful substances in the current indoor environment to the children group;
the detectability judgment module is used for calculating expert scoring average values of various gases of VOCs in the indoor environment for the children group based on expert experience and carrying out detectability judgment on the target toxic and harmful substances;
the risk value evaluation module is used for evaluating the risk value of the various gases of the VOCs in the indoor environment for children according to the possibility of occurrence of the various gases of the VOCs in the indoor environment, the risk quotient and the expert scoring average value;
and the exposure risk prediction module is used for predicting the exposure risk of the indoor VOCs facing the children group according to the risk value evaluation results of various gases of the VOCs facing the children in the indoor environment.
Optionally, the exposure possibility judging module is specifically configured to:
the uncertain variable is defined, and the number of children disease history cases caused by various gases in VOCs every year is defined as an uncertain variable xi 1 , ξ 2 , … ,ξ m M is the kind of gas;
let z be 1 , z 2 , … ,z n Is an uncertainty variable ζ m N is the number of years;
setting xi m To obey the normal uncertainty distribution N (e, σ), and the uncertainty variable for which the expected value eunknown, variance σ is unknown, is expressed as follows:
(1)
(2)
(3)
in uncertainty theory, entropy is defined as the difficulty level of predicting an uncertainty variable implementation, and assuming ζ is an uncertainty variable with an uncertainty distribution Φ, its entropy is defined as:
(4)
(5)
assuming ζ is compliant with a normal uncertainty distribution N (e, σ), then:
(6)
simplifying and obtaining:
(7)
the probability of the occurrence of various gases of VOCs in the indoor environment is calculated as follows:
(8)
optionally, the gas hazard assessment module is specifically configured to:
taking the child health guidance concentration of the VOCs gas in the TSCAT of the database of toxic substances and environmental health as a standard concentration, and taking the exposure concentration of the VOCs gas in the air and the standard concentration as a quotient of risks of various gases of the VOCs in the indoor environment as the dangerous degree of toxic and harmful substances in the current environment;
assuming that j toxic and harmful substances p exist in the current environment 1 ,p 2 ,……p j (j=1, 2,3 …, m) with standard concentration of toxic and harmful substances p j standard The exposure concentration of toxic and harmful substances is p j exposure of Then the risk quotient:
(9)
optionally, the detectability evaluation module is specifically configured to:
using the delta-film, based on the experience of n experts,the target toxic and harmful substances are assigned from the visual, olfactory and tactile directions, each index is 10 minutes, the target toxic and harmful substances are less perceptible, the score is higher, and the detectability score A of different dangerous substances is obtained j (j=1, 2,3 … …, m), the scores of different experts for a certain gas are expressed as(i=1, 2,3 …, n; j=1, 2,3 …, m), the scoring result is normalized:
(10)
and (3) integrating the opinions of all the experts, and calculating the average value of the expert scores of all the gases of the VOCs in the indoor environment for the children group:
(11)
optionally, the risk value evaluation module is specifically configured to:
risk valueThe (j=1, 2,3 …, m) evaluation formula is as follows:
(12)
in another aspect, an electronic device is provided that includes a processor and a memory having at least one instruction stored therein that is loaded and executed by the processor to implement the child-population-oriented indoor VOCs exposure risk prediction method described above.
In another aspect, a computer readable storage medium having stored therein at least one instruction that is loaded and executed by a processor to implement the child-population oriented indoor VOCs exposure risk prediction method described above is provided.
Compared with the prior art, the technical scheme has at least the following beneficial effects:
the invention provides a novel indoor VOCs exposure risk prediction method and device for children, which are used for introducing an uncertain theory from the perspective of historical case data, providing a basis for the possibility of breaking VOCs gas, combining a detection result of a gas sensor and expert experience to carry out exposure risk assessment prediction, accurately judging the types of VOCs in an indoor environment, being less influenced by environmental factors, still obtaining a stable result in a complex environment, overcoming the defect of reduced accuracy of a current gas sensor under the influence of complex conditions and various gases, timely warning people, judging whether to further test toxic and harmful substances in the current air or not, assisting doctors to definitely cause diseases and timely taking therapeutic measures.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, the drawings required for the description of the embodiments will be briefly described below, and it is apparent that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and other drawings may be obtained according to these drawings without inventive effort for a person skilled in the art.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a method for predicting indoor exposure risk of VOCs facing a child group according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a block diagram of an indoor VOCs exposure risk prediction device for a child group according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of an electronic device according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention more clear, the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings of the embodiments of the present invention. It will be apparent that the described embodiments are some, but not all, embodiments of the invention. All other embodiments, which can be made by a person skilled in the art without creative efforts, based on the described embodiments of the present invention fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
As shown in fig. 1, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for predicting exposure risk of indoor VOCs for a child group, including:
s1, combining historical data of children suffering from indoor VOCs, calculating the possibility of occurrence of various gases of the VOCs in an indoor environment based on an uncertain theory, and judging the exposure possibility of the target toxic and harmful substances;
s2, calculating risk quotient of various gases of VOCs in the indoor environment, and judging the gas harmfulness of the target toxic and harmful substances as the dangerous degree of the toxic and harmful substances in the current indoor environment to the children group;
s3, calculating expert scoring mean values of various gases of VOCs in the indoor environment for the children group based on expert experience, and performing detectability judgment on the target toxic and harmful substances;
s4, evaluating the risk values of the various gases of the VOCs in the indoor environment for children according to the possibility of occurrence of the various gases of the VOCs in the indoor environment, the risk quotient and the expert scoring average value;
s5, predicting the indoor VOCs exposure risk facing the children group according to the risk value evaluation results of various gases of the VOCs in the indoor environment.
The indoor waiting time of children is far longer than that of adults, and the VOCs are more breathed in than the adults; moreover, the body organs of children are not yet developed completely, and a small amount of VOCs can cause serious injury to the children. Children are exposed to the VOCs environment for a long time, diseases such as asthma, leukemia and childhood acquired heart diseases are easy to cause, and the risk of suffering from cancer is higher than that of adults, so that the indoor VOCs exposure risk prediction method for childhood groups provided by the embodiment of the invention comprises the following detailed description:
s1, combining historical data of children suffering from indoor VOCs, calculating the possibility of occurrence of various gases of the VOCs in an indoor environment based on an uncertain theory, and judging the exposure possibility of the target toxic and harmful substances;
when historical data is processed, since domestic research on VOCs starts later, data sample statistics are fewer, statistics on probability distribution of cases cannot be made, and probability theory based on large samples is not applicable in this case. In response to this problem, embodiments of the present invention introduce uncertainty theory, providing more accurate results with less historical data.
Optionally, the S1 specifically includes:
the uncertain variable is defined, and the number of children disease history cases caused by various gases in VOCs every year is defined as an uncertain variable xi 1 , ξ 2 , … ,ξ m M is the kind of gas;
let z be 1 , z 2 , … ,z n Is an uncertainty variable ζ m N is the number of years;
setting xi m To obey the normal uncertainty distribution N (e, σ), and the uncertainty variable for which the expected value eunknown, variance σ is unknown, is expressed as follows:
(1)
(2)
(3)
in uncertainty theory, entropy is defined as the difficulty level of predicting an uncertainty variable implementation, and assuming ζ is an uncertainty variable with an uncertainty distribution Φ, its entropy is defined as:
(4)
(5)
assuming ζ is compliant with a normal uncertainty distribution N (e, σ), then:
(6)
simplifying and obtaining:
(7)
the probability of the occurrence of various gases of VOCs in the indoor environment is calculated as follows:
(8)
s2, calculating risk quotient of various gases of VOCs in the indoor environment, and judging the gas harmfulness of the target toxic and harmful substances as the dangerous degree of the toxic and harmful substances in the current indoor environment to the children group;
optionally, the S2 specifically includes:
taking the child health guidance concentration of the VOCs gas in the toxic substance and environmental health database TSCAT as a standard concentration, and taking the exposure concentration (which can be detected by a gas sensor) of the VOCs gas in the detected air as a quotient of the standard concentration to obtain a risk quotient of various gases of the VOCs in the indoor environment, wherein the risk quotient is taken as the risk degree of the toxic and harmful substances in the current environment;
assuming that j toxic and harmful substances p exist in the current environment 1 ,p 2 ,……p j (j=1, 2,3 …, m) with standard concentration of toxic and harmful substances p j standard The exposure concentration of toxic and harmful substances is p j exposure of Then the risk quotient:
(9)
s3, calculating expert scoring mean values of various gases of VOCs in the indoor environment for the children group based on expert experience, and performing detectability judgment on the target toxic and harmful substances;
optionally, the step S3 specifically includes:
using Delphi method, based on experience of n experts, assigning values of target toxic and harmful substances from three sides of vision, smell and touch, wherein each index is 10 points, and the target toxic and harmful substances are less perceptible, the higher the score is, the detectability score A of different dangerous substances is obtained j (j=1, 2,3 … …, m), the scores of different experts for a certain gas are expressed as(i=1, 2,3 …, n; j=1, 2,3 …, m), the scoring result is normalized:
(10)
and (3) integrating the opinions of all the experts, and calculating the average value of the expert scores of all the gases of the VOCs in the indoor environment for the children group:
(11)
s4, evaluating the risk values of the various gases of the VOCs in the indoor environment for children according to the possibility of occurrence of the various gases of the VOCs in the indoor environment, the risk quotient and the expert scoring average value;
optionally, the S4 specifically includes:
risk valueThe (j=1, 2,3 …, m) evaluation formula is as follows:
(12)
in the embodiment of the invention, S1 and S3 are relatively wide, the target toxic and harmful substances in the general indoor environment are judged according to the history data and expert experience of the illness of the VOCs in the children, S2 is specific to a certain indoor environment to be predicted, the target toxic and harmful substances in the indoor environment to be predicted are judged according to the exposure concentration of the VOCs in the air detected by the gas sensor, the embodiment of the invention integrates the three (when various gases exist in the indoor environment as recorded in the prior art, the detection gas cannot be accurately and accurately judged and the risk thereof can be estimated simply by the gas sensor, and therefore, the embodiment of the invention adopts a method for integrating the three), and the accurate estimation and prediction of the exposure risk of the VOCs is realized under the conditions of small data sample size and complex gas.
According to the historical case data, the possibility that various gases in the VOCs appear in the indoor environment is calculated by utilizing an uncertain theory, the hazard of the VOCs is judged by utilizing a risk quotient on the basis of acquiring which VOCs gas possibly appears, the detectability of the VOCs is judged by utilizing a Delphi method, the risk values of the various gases in the indoor environment facing children are evaluated, and a VOCs gas risk table is formed, as shown in table 1:
TABLE 1
S5, predicting the indoor VOCs exposure risk facing the children group according to the risk value evaluation results of various gases of the VOCs in the indoor environment.
According to the embodiment of the invention, the risk grades (red, yellow and green corresponding to strong, medium and weak) can be divided according to the historical risk assessment results, the risk intervals are divided according to the risk values, the exposure risk level of the current indoor environment is judged, and the risk prediction and early warning are carried out.
As shown in fig. 2, the embodiment of the present invention further provides an indoor VOCs exposure risk prediction apparatus facing a child group, including:
the exposure probability judging module 210 is configured to calculate, based on an uncertain theory, the probability of occurrence of various gases of VOCs in the indoor environment in combination with historical data of children suffering from indoor VOCs, and judge the exposure probability of the target toxic and harmful substances;
the gas hazard assessment module 220 is configured to calculate risk quotient of various gases of VOCs in the indoor environment, and perform gas hazard assessment on the target toxic and harmful substances as the hazard degree of the toxic and harmful substances in the current indoor environment to the children population;
the detectability judgment module 230 is configured to calculate expert score means of various gases of VOCs in the indoor environment for the group of children based on expert experience, and perform detectability judgment on the target toxic and harmful substances;
the risk value evaluation module 240 is configured to evaluate a child-oriented risk value of each gas of VOCs in the indoor environment according to the likelihood of occurrence of each gas of VOCs in the indoor environment, the risk quotient and the expert score average;
the exposure prediction module 250 is configured to predict exposure of the VOCs in the children-oriented group according to the evaluation result of the risk values of the VOCs in the indoor environment.
Optionally, the exposure possibility judging module is specifically configured to:
the uncertain variable is defined, and the number of children disease history cases caused by various gases in VOCs every year is defined as an uncertain variable xi 1 , ξ 2 , … ,ξ m M is the kind of gas;
let z be 1 , z 2 , … ,z n Is an uncertainty variable ζ m N is the number of years;
setting xi m To obey the normal uncertainty distribution N (e, σ), and the uncertainty variable for which the expected value eunknown, variance σ is unknown, is expressed as follows:
(1)
(2)
(3)
in uncertainty theory, entropy is defined as the difficulty level of predicting an uncertainty variable implementation, and assuming ζ is an uncertainty variable with an uncertainty distribution Φ, its entropy is defined as:
(4)
(5)
assuming ζ is compliant with a normal uncertainty distribution N (e, σ), then:
(6)
simplifying and obtaining:
(7)
the probability of the occurrence of various gases of VOCs in the indoor environment is calculated as follows:
(8)
optionally, the gas hazard assessment module is specifically configured to:
taking the child health guidance concentration of the VOCs gas in the TSCAT of the database of toxic substances and environmental health as a standard concentration, and taking the exposure concentration of the VOCs gas in the air and the standard concentration as a quotient of risks of various gases of the VOCs in the indoor environment as the dangerous degree of toxic and harmful substances in the current environment;
assuming that j toxic and harmful substances p exist in the current environment 1 ,p 2 ,……p j (j=1, 2,3 …, m) with standard concentration of toxic and harmful substances p j standard The exposure concentration of toxic and harmful substances is p j exposure of Then the risk quotient:
(9)
optionally, the detectability evaluation module is specifically configured to:
using Delphi method, based on experience of n experts, assigning values of target toxic and harmful substances from three sides of vision, smell and touch, wherein each index is 10 points, and the target toxic and harmful substances are less perceptible, the higher the score is, the detectability score A of different dangerous substances is obtained j (j=1, 2,3 … …, m), the scores of different experts for a certain gas are expressed as(i=1, 2,3 …, n; j=1, 2,3 …, m), the scoring result is normalized:
(10)
and (3) integrating the opinions of all the experts, and calculating the average value of the expert scores of all the gases of the VOCs in the indoor environment for the children group:
(11)
optionally, the risk value evaluation module is specifically configured to:
risk valueThe (j=1, 2,3 …, m) evaluation formula is as follows:
(12)
the functional structure of the indoor VOCs exposure risk prediction device for the children group provided by the embodiment of the invention corresponds to the indoor VOCs exposure risk prediction method for the children group provided by the embodiment of the invention, and is not repeated here.
Fig. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of an electronic device 300 according to an embodiment of the present invention, where the electronic device 300 may have a relatively large difference due to different configurations or performances, and may include one or more processors (central processing units, CPU) 301 and one or more memories 302, where at least one instruction is stored in the memories 302, and the at least one instruction is loaded and executed by the processors 301 to implement the steps of the method for predicting exposure risk of indoor VOCs facing a child group.
In an exemplary embodiment, a computer readable storage medium, such as a memory comprising instructions executable by a processor in a terminal to perform the above-described method of predicting exposure to indoor VOCs for a group of children is also provided. For example, the computer readable storage medium may be ROM, random Access Memory (RAM), CD-ROM, magnetic tape, floppy disk, optical data storage device, etc.
It will be understood by those skilled in the art that all or part of the steps for implementing the above embodiments may be implemented by hardware, or may be implemented by a program for instructing relevant hardware, where the program may be stored in a computer readable storage medium, and the storage medium may be a read-only memory, a magnetic disk or an optical disk, etc.
The foregoing description of the preferred embodiments of the invention is not intended to limit the invention to the precise form disclosed, and any such modifications, equivalents, and alternatives falling within the spirit and scope of the invention are intended to be included within the scope of the invention.
Claims (8)
1. An indoor VOCs exposure prediction method for a child group is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, combining historical data of children suffering from indoor VOCs, calculating the possibility of occurrence of various gases of the VOCs in an indoor environment based on an uncertain theory, and judging the exposure possibility of the target toxic and harmful substances;
s2, calculating risk quotient of various gases of VOCs in the indoor environment, and judging the gas harmfulness of the target toxic and harmful substances as the dangerous degree of the toxic and harmful substances in the current indoor environment to the children group;
s3, calculating expert scoring mean values of various gases of VOCs in the indoor environment for the children group based on expert experience, and performing detectability judgment on the target toxic and harmful substances;
s4, evaluating the risk values of the various gases of the VOCs in the indoor environment for children according to the possibility of occurrence of the various gases of the VOCs in the indoor environment, the risk quotient and the expert scoring average value;
s5, predicting indoor VOCs exposure risk facing the children group according to the risk value evaluation results of various gases of the VOCs in the indoor environment facing the children;
the S1 specifically comprises the following steps:
defining uncertain variables, wherein the number of children disease history cases caused by various gases in VOCs each year is defined as uncertain variables xi 1, xi 2, …, xi m and m are the types of gases;
assuming z1, z2, …, zn is a set of data of the uncertainty variable ζm, n is the number of years;
let ζm be an uncertainty variable obeying a normal uncertainty distribution N (e, σ) and for which the expected value e is unknown and the variance σ2 is unknown, expressed as follows:
(1)
(2)
(3)
in uncertainty theory, entropy is defined as the difficulty level of predicting an uncertainty variable implementation, and assuming ζ is an uncertainty variable with an uncertainty distribution φ, then its entropy is defined as:
(4)
(5)
assuming ζ is compliant with a normal uncertainty distribution N (e, σ), then:
(6)
simplifying and obtaining:
(7)
the probability of the occurrence of various gases of VOCs in the indoor environment is calculated as follows:
(8)。
2. the method according to claim 1, wherein S2 specifically comprises:
taking the child health guidance concentration of the VOCs gas in the toxic substance and environmental health database TSCAT as a standard concentration, and taking the exposure concentration of the VOCs gas in the detected air as a quotient of risks of various gases of the VOCs in the indoor environment as the dangerous degree of toxic and harmful substances in the current environment;
assuming that j toxic and harmful substances p1, p2, … … pj exist in the current environment, (j=1, 2,3 …, m), the standard concentration of the toxic and harmful substances is pj standard, and the exposure concentration of the toxic and harmful substances is pj exposure, the risk quotient:
(9)。
3. the method according to claim 2, wherein S3 specifically comprises:
using Delphi method, based on experience of n experts, assigning values to target toxic and harmful substances from three directions of vision, smell and touch, wherein each index is 10 points, the target toxic and harmful substances are less easily perceived, the higher the score is, the detectability scores Aj of different dangerous substances are obtained, (j=1, 2,3 … …, m), and the scores of different experts for a certain gas are expressed as(i=1, 2,3 …, n; j=1, 2,3 …, m), the scoring result is normalized:
(10)
and (3) integrating the opinions of all the experts, and calculating the average value of the expert scores of all the gases of the VOCs in the indoor environment for the children group:
(11)。
4. a method according to claim 3, wherein S4 comprises:
risk valueThe (j=1, 2,3 …, m) evaluation formula is as follows:
(12)。
5. indoor VOCs exposure prediction device towards children's crowd, characterized in that includes:
the exposure possibility judging module is used for calculating the possibility of occurrence of various gases of the VOCs in the indoor environment based on an uncertain theory by combining the history data of the children suffering from the VOCs in the indoor environment and judging the exposure possibility of the target toxic and harmful substances;
the gas hazard judging module is used for calculating risk quotient of various gases of VOCs in the indoor environment, and judging gas hazard of the target toxic and harmful substances as the hazard degree of the toxic and harmful substances in the current indoor environment to the children group;
the detectability judgment module is used for calculating expert scoring average values of various gases of VOCs in the indoor environment for the children group based on expert experience and carrying out detectability judgment on the target toxic and harmful substances;
the risk value evaluation module is used for evaluating the risk value of the various gases of the VOCs in the indoor environment for children according to the possibility of occurrence of the various gases of the VOCs in the indoor environment, the risk quotient and the expert scoring average value;
the exposure risk prediction module is used for predicting the exposure risk of the indoor VOCs facing the children group according to the risk value evaluation results of various gases of the VOCs facing the children in the indoor environment;
the exposure possibility judging module is specifically configured to:
defining uncertain variables, wherein the number of children disease history cases caused by various gases in VOCs each year is defined as uncertain variables xi 1, xi 2, …, xi m and m are the types of gases;
assuming z1, z2, …, zn is a set of data of the uncertainty variable ζm, n is the number of years;
let ζm be an uncertainty variable obeying a normal uncertainty distribution N (e, σ) and for which the expected value e is unknown and the variance σ2 is unknown, expressed as follows:
(1)
(2)
(3)
in uncertainty theory, entropy is defined as the difficulty level of predicting an uncertainty variable implementation, and assuming ζ is an uncertainty variable with an uncertainty distribution φ, then its entropy is defined as:
(4)
(5)
assuming ζ is compliant with a normal uncertainty distribution N (e, σ), then:
(6)
simplifying and obtaining:
(7)
the probability of the occurrence of various gases of VOCs in the indoor environment is calculated as follows:
(8)。
6. the device according to claim 5, wherein the gas hazard assessment module is specifically configured to:
taking the child health guidance concentration of the VOCs gas in the TSCAT of the database of toxic substances and environmental health as a standard concentration, and taking the exposure concentration of the VOCs gas in the air and the standard concentration as a quotient of risks of various gases of the VOCs in the indoor environment as the dangerous degree of toxic and harmful substances in the current environment;
assuming that j toxic and harmful substances p1, p2, … … pj exist in the current environment, (j=1, 2,3 …, m), the standard concentration of the toxic and harmful substances is pj standard, and the exposure concentration of the toxic and harmful substances is pj exposure, the risk quotient:
(9)。
7. the device according to claim 6, wherein the detectability evaluation module is specifically configured to:
using Delphi method, based on experience of n experts, assigning values to target toxic and harmful substances from three directions of vision, smell and touch, wherein each index is 10 points, the target toxic and harmful substances are less easily perceived, the higher the score is, the detectability scores Aj of different dangerous substances are obtained, (j=1, 2,3 … …, m), and the scores of different experts for a certain gas are expressed as(i=1, 2,3 …, n; j=1, 2,3 …, m), the scoring result is normalized:
(10)
and (3) integrating the opinions of all the experts, and calculating the average value of the expert scores of all the gases of the VOCs in the indoor environment for the children group:
(11)。
8. the apparatus of claim 7, wherein the risk value evaluation module is specifically configured to:
risk valueThe (j=1, 2,3 …, m) evaluation formula is as follows:
(12)。
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