CN116362541A - Flood influence population and GDP risk assessment method based on standard grid - Google Patents
Flood influence population and GDP risk assessment method based on standard grid Download PDFInfo
- Publication number
- CN116362541A CN116362541A CN202310287406.1A CN202310287406A CN116362541A CN 116362541 A CN116362541 A CN 116362541A CN 202310287406 A CN202310287406 A CN 202310287406A CN 116362541 A CN116362541 A CN 116362541A
- Authority
- CN
- China
- Prior art keywords
- flood
- gdp
- population
- standard grid
- affected
- Prior art date
- Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
- Granted
Links
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 37
- 238000012502 risk assessment Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 16
- XLYOFNOQVPJJNP-UHFFFAOYSA-N water Substances O XLYOFNOQVPJJNP-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 claims abstract description 40
- 238000011160 research Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 18
- 238000004458 analytical method Methods 0.000 claims description 20
- 238000004364 calculation method Methods 0.000 claims description 18
- 238000009826 distribution Methods 0.000 claims description 7
- 238000005192 partition Methods 0.000 claims description 6
- 238000005520 cutting process Methods 0.000 claims description 4
- 239000011159 matrix material Substances 0.000 claims description 4
- 238000004088 simulation Methods 0.000 claims description 4
- 238000011835 investigation Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000013507 mapping Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000010200 validation analysis Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000011161 development Methods 0.000 abstract description 5
- 238000011156 evaluation Methods 0.000 abstract description 5
- 230000002265 prevention Effects 0.000 abstract description 2
- 238000010586 diagram Methods 0.000 description 2
- 238000006424 Flood reaction Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000009286 beneficial effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 239000003086 colorant Substances 0.000 description 1
- 230000000694 effects Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000005516 engineering process Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000007774 longterm Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000004519 manufacturing process Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000012986 modification Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000004048 modification Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000009828 non-uniform distribution Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000009877 rendering Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000012216 screening Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000009827 uniform distribution Methods 0.000 description 1
Images
Classifications
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
- G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
- G06Q10/0635—Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q50/00—Information and communication technology [ICT] specially adapted for implementation of business processes of specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
- G06Q50/10—Services
- G06Q50/26—Government or public services
- G06Q50/265—Personal security, identity or safety
-
- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A10/00—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE at coastal zones; at river basins
- Y02A10/40—Controlling or monitoring, e.g. of flood or hurricane; Forecasting, e.g. risk assessment or mapping
Landscapes
- Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
- Human Resources & Organizations (AREA)
- Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
- Strategic Management (AREA)
- Economics (AREA)
- Tourism & Hospitality (AREA)
- General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- Theoretical Computer Science (AREA)
- Entrepreneurship & Innovation (AREA)
- Marketing (AREA)
- Development Economics (AREA)
- General Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
- Educational Administration (AREA)
- Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- Quality & Reliability (AREA)
- Operations Research (AREA)
- Game Theory and Decision Science (AREA)
- Computer Security & Cryptography (AREA)
- Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
- General Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
- Primary Health Care (AREA)
- Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)
Abstract
The invention discloses a flood influence population and GDP risk assessment method based on a standard grid, which comprises the following steps: step 1, collecting basic data of a research area; step 2, calculating expected water depth in the standard grid; step 3, calculating expected values of affected population and expected values of affected GDP in the standard grid; step 4, formulating risk grade classification standards of flood influence population and GDP; and 5, determining the population affected by the flood and the GDP risk level. The method provided by the invention has the advantages that the evaluation result is more scientific and accurate, the flood disaster influence population and the GDP risk level in the standard grid are comprehensively evaluated from the two aspects of flood risk and the severity of the flood influence result, technical support is provided for the productive application of the evaluation result in planning and development strategy decision, and quantitative reference basis is provided for regional disaster prevention and reduction, homeland space planning, industrial development layout and the like, so that the practicability is strong.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of flood risk assessment, and particularly relates to a flood influence population and GDP risk assessment method based on standard grids.
Background
In the prior art, a GIS technology and a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are generally adopted to perform macroscopic, qualitative and quantitative index analysis from flood disaster dangers and vulnerability, but because of lack of hydrographic and hydrodynamic physical process simulation results and index support, the selected indexes and weights thereof are greatly affected by human factors, the scientificity and the accuracy of the evaluation results are affected to a certain extent, so that how to evaluate the risk of flood influencing population and GDP more accurately is a technical problem to be solved urgently.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a flood influence population and GDP risk assessment method based on a standard grid so as to solve the technical problems.
In order to achieve the above purpose, the present invention provides the following technical solutions:
the invention discloses a flood influence population and GDP risk assessment method based on a standard grid, which comprises the following steps:
step 2, calculating expected water depth in the standard grid: firstly, carrying out space cutting on an original grid by utilizing a standard grid boundary to form flood inundation analysis data under the standard grid scale, then calculating the average inundation water depth of the standard grid in the inundation range under each flood reproduction period by adopting an area weighting method, and finally calculating the expected water depth H in the standard grid according to a statistical expected value calculation method QW ：
Wherein p is i For a flood recurring period; h i P for standard grid i Is equal to the average submerged depth dm; n is the number of flood reproduction periods; p is p i+1 Is of ratio p i Is an order of magnitude higher than flood reproduction periods; h i+1 P for standard grid i+1 Is equal to the average submerged depth dm;
step 3, calculating expected values of affected population and expected values of affected GDP in the standard grid: firstly, calculating an affected population value and an affected GDP value in a flood inundation range under each flood reproduction period in a standard grid by adopting an area proportion method, and then calculating an affected population expected value and an affected GDP expected value in the standard grid according to the population value and the affected GDP expected value;
step 4, formulating flood influence population and GDP risk classification standards: based on expected water depth, expected values of affected population and expected values of affected GDP, adopting a matrix method to formulate flood-affected population and GDP risk classification standards with standard grid dimensions, wherein the threshold value of the risk classification standards is adjusted according to the characteristics of a research area and the application target of the division result;
step 5, determining flood influence population and GDP risk level: and determining the flood influence population and the GDP risk level of each standard grid in the research area according to the calculated expected water depth, the influenced population expected value, the influenced GDP expected value and the formulated risk level dividing standard in the standard grids.
Further, the calculation method of the affected population value and the affected GDP value under each flood reproduction period depends on the collected land utilization and the precision of the resident map layer, when the scale is less than or equal to 1:5 ten thousand, the population and the GDP are uniformly distributed in the non-water surface area in the standard grid, and the calculation formula of the affected population value and the affected GDP value in the flood submerging range under a certain flood reproduction period in the standard grid is as follows:
in the formula, pop e The population value is affected in the flood inundation range under a certain flood reproduction period in the standard grid; pop is the value of the general population in the standard grid; GDP (GDP) e An affected GDP value within a flood flooding range at a certain flood reproduction period within a standard grid; GDP is the total GDP value in the standard grid; a is that f Flood inundation areas under the flood reproduction period in the standard grid; a is the total area of a standard grid;
when the scale is larger than 1:5 ten thousand, population and GDP are unevenly distributed in the standard grid, and the calculation formulas of the affected population value and the affected GDP value in the flood inundation range under a certain flood reproduction period in the standard grid are as follows:
in the formula, pop e Is standard toAffected population values within the grid within a flood flooding range under a certain flood recurrence period; pop is the value of the general population in the standard grid; GDP (GDP) e An affected GDP value within a flood flooding range at a certain flood reproduction period within a standard grid; GDP is the total GDP value in the standard grid; a is that fr Flooding the residential area for floodwater under the flood reproduction period within the standard grid; a is that r The total area of the residential areas in the standard grid; a is that gj Flood inundation areas of the jth GDP partition in the standard grid under the flood reproduction period; m is the total number of GDP partitions of the standard grid; a is the total area of a standard grid;
the calculation formulas of the expected values of the affected population and the expected value of the affected GDP in the standard grid are respectively as follows:
in the formula, pop QW Is an expected value for the affected population within the standard grid; pop ei P for standard grid i The population value affected within the flood inundation range; pop ei+1 P for standard grid i+1 The population value affected within the flood inundation range; GDP (GDP) QW Is an affected GDP expected value within a standard grid; GDP (GDP) ei P for standard grid i Affected GDP values within flood flooding range; GDP (GDP) ei+1 P for standard grid i+1 Is a flood inundation of affected GDP values within a range.
Further, the validation standard of the flood inundation range is that the inundation water depth is larger than the area with 0.05 m.
Further, the number of flood reproduction periods is at least four.
Further, the spatial resolution of the standard grid is 30 arcsec×30 arcsec.
Further, collecting flood inundation analysis data in the step 1, and directly adopting result data of the areas with the compiled flood risk map; for the areas without the flood risk map, a hydrologic model is constructed, and simulation analysis of a flood scheme is carried out according to the regulations of the flood risk map compiling guide rules in China, so that result data are obtained;
the standard grid population and GDP index data are collected and generated according to social and economic statistics by combining residential land, land utilization types and night lamplight brightness space distribution, or standard grid population and GDP data products generated by professional departments are adopted;
and collecting river water systems, embankment layers and land utilization and resident map layers according to latest investigation or mapping data when collecting data.
Further, the risk classification standards of the population affected by the flood and the GDP in the step 4 are five, namely high risk, medium and low risk in sequence.
The beneficial effects of the invention are as follows: the flood influence population and GDP risk assessment method based on the standard grid has theoretical basis such as hydraulics, statistics and the like, the assessment result is more scientific and accurate, the method is suitable for assessing the standard grid scale, the risk level of the flood disaster influence population and GDP in the standard grid is assessed comprehensively from two aspects of flood risk and severity of flood influence results, technical support is provided for the commercialized application of the assessment result in planning and development strategy decision, quantitative reference basis is provided for regional disaster prevention and reduction, homeland space planning, industrial development layout and the like, and the method fully utilizes industry mature data products, solves the problem of difficult data acquisition in the traditional method, and has strong practicability.
The invention will be described in further detail with reference to the drawings and the detailed description.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the method of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a map of the location of a study area according to an embodiment;
FIG. 3 is a diagram of an example flood affected population risk compartment;
fig. 4 is a diagram of an embodiment-flood-affected GDP risk compartment.
Detailed Description
The invention discloses a flood influence population and GDP risk assessment method based on a standard grid, which comprises the following steps as shown in figure 1:
For the collection of flood inundation analysis data (including flood inundation range, maximum inundation depth data and the like) under different flood reproduction periods, the result data can be directly adopted for the areas with the flood risk map compiled, a hydrologic model is required to be constructed for the areas without the flood risk map, and the simulation analysis of a flood scheme is carried out according to the rules of the flood risk map compiling guidance (SL 483-2017) in China, so that the result data are obtained. The standard grid population and GDP data can be generated by combining space distribution of residential areas, land utilization types, night light brightness and the like according to social and economic statistics, or standard grid population and GDP data products generated by professional departments are directly adopted, such as a China population space distribution kilometer grid data set and a China GDP space distribution kilometer grid data set which are issued by the national academy of sciences of China and are provided with 1km of space resolution. Other data can be collected and determined according to the principles of the purpose, the reliability, the difficulty and the like of data acquisition. River water systems, embankment layers and land utilization and resident map layers are collected according to latest investigation or mapping data when collecting data.
Step 2, calculating expected water depth in the standard grid: when the original grid size of flood inundation analysis data is smaller than or equal to the standard gridWhen the shapes of the grids are inconsistent, firstly, carrying out space cutting on the original grids by utilizing standard grid boundaries to form flood inundation analysis data under the standard grid scale, then adopting an area weighting method to calculate the average inundation water depth of the standard grids in the inundation range under each flood reproduction period, and finally calculating the expected water depth H in the standard grids according to a statistical expected value calculation method QW ：
Wherein p is i For a flood recurring period; h i P for standard grid i Is equal to the average submerged depth dm; n is the number of flood reproduction periods; p is p i+1 Is of ratio p i Is an order of magnitude higher than flood reproduction periods, e.g. p i For 20 years, p i+1 Is 50 years after meeting; h i+1 P for standard grid i+1 Is equal to the average submerged depth dm.
When flood inundation range data under standard grid scale are formed, the areas (with the exception of flood areas or beach areas of human production and life) between the two banks of the river course with normal water surface, general no people living and GDP output are required to be removed according to the collected river water system and the embankment layer, so that the accuracy of the evaluation result is improved. And when calculating the expected water depth, the more flood reproduction period schemes, the closer the calculated expected water depth value is to the theoretical true value, and generally at least four flood reproduction periods are required.
Step 3, calculating expected values of affected population and expected values of affected GDP in the standard grid: firstly, calculating the population values and the GDP values in the flood inundation range under each flood reproduction period in the standard grid by adopting an area proportion method, and then calculating the population expected values and the GDP expected values in the standard grid according to the population values and the GDP expected values. Also, the more flood reoccurrence schemes, the closer the calculated population expectations and GDP expectations are to theoretical truth values, typically requiring at least four flood reoccurrences.
The calculation method of the affected population value and the affected GDP value under each flood reproduction period depends on the precision of the collected land utilization and the resident map layer, when the scale is less than or equal to 1:5 ten thousand, according to the uniform distribution of population and GDP in the non-water surface area in the standard grid, the calculation formulas of the affected population value and the affected GDP value in the flood inundation range under a certain flood reproduction period in the standard grid are as follows:
in the formula, pop e The population value is affected in the flood inundation range under a certain flood reproduction period in the standard grid; pop is the value of the general population in the standard grid; GDP (GDP) e An affected GDP value within a flood flooding range at a certain flood reproduction period within a standard grid; GDP is the total GDP value in the standard grid; a is that f Flood inundation areas under the flood reproduction period in the standard grid; a is the total area of the standard grid.
When the scale is larger than 1:5 ten thousand, the population and GDP data in the standard grid can be endowed with certain space difference distribution according to different residential land and land utilization types, namely, according to the population and GDP data in the standard grid, the population and GDP data are considered according to non-uniform distribution, and then the calculation formulas of the affected population value and the affected GDP value in the flood inundation range under a certain flood reproduction period in the standard grid are as follows:
in the formula, pop e The population value is affected in the flood inundation range under a certain flood reproduction period in the standard grid; pop is the value of the general population in the standard grid; GDP (GDP) e For being affected within flooding scope under a certain flood reproduction period in standard gridGDP value; GDP is the total GDP value in the standard grid; a is that fr Flooding the residential area for floodwater under the flood reproduction period within the standard grid; a is that r The total area of the residential areas in the standard grid; a is that gj Flood inundation areas of the jth GDP partition in the standard grid under the flood reproduction period; m is the total number of GDP partitions of the standard grid; a is the total area of the standard grid.
The affected population expectations and the affected GDP expectations represent the annual affected population and the annual affected GDP that may be caused by floods in the long term, and thus the calculation formulas of the affected population expectations and the affected GDP expectations within the standard grid are respectively:
in the formula, pop QW Is an expected value for the affected population within the standard grid; pop ei P for standard grid i The population value affected within the flood inundation range; pop ei+1 P for standard grid i+1 The population value affected within the flood inundation range; GDP (GDP) QW Is an affected GDP expected value within a standard grid; GDP (GDP) ei P for standard grid i Affected GDP values within flood flooding range; GDP (GDP) ei+1 P for standard grid i+1 Is a flood inundation of affected GDP values within a range.
Step 4, formulating flood influence population and GDP risk classification standards: and (3) representing flood risk of the standard grid by using the expected water depth, representing the influence effect degree of flood in the standard grid on population and GDP by using the expected value of the affected population and the expected value of the affected GDP, and adopting a matrix method to formulate a standard grid-scale flood influence population and GDP risk classification standard. The establishment of flood influencing population and GDP risk level classification standards has a relative concept, and in order to embody the spatial difference of the assessment division results, the threshold value of the classification standards can be properly adjusted according to the characteristics of the research area and the division result application targets.
Step 5, determining flood influence population and GDP risk level: and determining flood influence population and GDP risk level of each standard grid in the research area according to the calculated expected water depth, the influenced population expected value, the influenced GDP expected value and the formulated risk level dividing standard in the standard grids, and making a regional graph.
Example 1
The present embodiment is an application example of the above method.
The embodiment discloses a flood influence population and GDP risk assessment method based on a standard grid, which comprises the following steps:
Step 2, calculating expected water depth in the standard grid: firstly, carrying out space cutting on an original grid by utilizing a standard grid boundary to form flood inundation analysis data under the standard grid scale, then calculating the average inundation water depth of the standard grid in the inundation range under each flood reproduction period by adopting an area weighting method, and finally calculating the expected water depth H in the standard grid according to a statistical expected value calculation method QW ：
Wherein p is i For a flood recurring period; h i P for standard grid i Is equal to the average submerged depth dm; n is the number of flood reproduction periods; p is p i+1 Is of a ratio ofp i Is an order of magnitude higher than flood reproduction periods; h i+1 P for standard grid i+1 Is equal to the average submerged depth dm.
Step 3, calculating expected values of affected population and expected values of affected GDP in the standard grid: firstly, calculating the population values and the GDP values in the flood inundation range under each flood reproduction period in the standard grid by adopting an area proportion method, and then calculating the population expected values and the GDP expected values in the standard grid according to the population values and the GDP expected values.
The precision of the land utilization and resident map layer collected in this embodiment is 1:25 ten thousand, so the calculation formulas of the affected population value and the affected GDP value in the flood inundation range under a certain flood reproduction period in the standard grid are as follows:
in the formula, pop e The population value is affected in the flood inundation range under a certain flood reproduction period in the standard grid; pop is the value of the general population in the standard grid; GDP (GDP) e An affected GDP value within a flood flooding range at a certain flood reproduction period within a standard grid; GDP is the total GDP value in the standard grid; a is that f Flood inundation areas under the flood reproduction period in the standard grid; a is the total area of the standard grid.
The calculation formulas of the expected values of the affected population and the expected value of the affected GDP in the standard grid are respectively as follows:
in the formula, pop QW Is a standard grid internal subjectAffecting population expectations; pop ei P for standard grid i The population value affected within the flood inundation range; pop ei+1 P for standard grid i+1 The population value affected within the flood inundation range; GDP (GDP) QW Is an affected GDP expected value within a standard grid; GDP (GDP) ei P for standard grid i Affected GDP values within flood flooding range; GDP (GDP) ei+1 P for standard grid i+1 Is a flood inundation of affected GDP values within a range.
Step 4, formulating flood influence population and GDP risk classification standards: and (3) adopting a matrix method to formulate flood influence population and GDP risk classification standards with standard grid scale based on the expected water depth, the expected value of the affected population and the expected value of the affected GDP.
In this embodiment, the flood influencing population and the GDP risk level are divided into five levels, which are sequentially from high to low: the specific division criteria of high risk, medium and low risk are shown in table 1 and table 2 respectively.
Table 1 flood influencing population risk ranking criteria
TABLE 2 flood impact GDP risk ranking criteria
Step 5, determining flood influence population and GDP risk level: and determining flood influence population and GDP risk level of each standard grid in the research area according to the calculated expected water depth, the influenced population expected value, the influenced GDP expected value and the formulated risk level dividing standard in the standard grids, and making a regional graph.
The five risk levels of flood affected population and GDP are shown in table 3 in correspondence with the grid values and rendering colors of the compartmentalized map.
Table 3 risk level and grid value and rendered color correspondence table for flood affected population and GDP
The expected water depth, the expected value of the affected population, the expected value of the affected GDP and the risk level result of each standard grid of a flood protection zone calculated according to the steps are shown in table 4. And a flood influence population risk division map and a flood influence GDP risk division map which take integer type grade values as values are manufactured, wherein the flood influence population risk division map and the flood influence GDP risk division map are respectively shown in fig. 3 and 4.
Table 4 standard grid flood risk information table for flood protection zone
As can be seen from table 3, taking the standard grid code 25 as an example, the flood affected population risk level is medium and high according to the expected water depth (1.19 decimeters) and the expected value of the affected population (31 people); flood impact GDP risk level is high depending on its desired water depth (1.19 decimeters) and the affected GDP expectations (627 ten thousand yuan).
The method provided by the invention can be used for comprehensively evaluating the risk level of flood disasters affecting population and GDP in the standard grid, and providing a reference basis for natural disaster comprehensive risk screening, homeland space planning and supporting economic and social sustainable development.
Finally, it should be noted that the above description is only for the purpose of illustrating the technical solution of the present invention and not for the purpose of limiting the same, and that although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the preferred arrangement, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that modifications and equivalents may be made thereto without departing from the spirit and scope of the technical solution of the present invention.
Claims (7)
1. A method for flood impact population and GDP risk assessment based on a standard grid, the method comprising the steps of:
step 1, collecting basic data of a research area: collecting flood inundation analysis data based on original grids, standard grid population and GDP data, river water system and embankment map layers and land utilization and resident map layers under a plurality of flood reproduction periods of a research area; the flood inundation analysis data comprise a flood inundation range and a maximum inundation depth;
step 2, calculating expected water depth in the standard grid: firstly, carrying out space cutting on an original grid by utilizing a standard grid boundary to form flood inundation analysis data under the standard grid scale, then calculating the average inundation water depth of the standard grid in the inundation range under each flood reproduction period by adopting an area weighting method, and finally calculating the expected water depth H in the standard grid according to a statistical expected value calculation method QW ：
Wherein p is i For a flood recurring period; h i P for standard grid i Is equal to the average submerged depth dm; n is the number of flood reproduction periods; p is p i+1 Is of ratio p i Is an order of magnitude higher than flood reproduction periods; h i+1 P for standard grid i+1 Is equal to the average submerged depth dm;
step 3, calculating expected values of affected population and expected values of affected GDP in the standard grid: firstly, calculating an affected population value and an affected GDP value in a flood inundation range under each flood reproduction period in a standard grid by adopting an area proportion method, and then calculating an affected population expected value and an affected GDP expected value in the standard grid according to the population value and the affected GDP expected value;
step 4, formulating flood influence population and GDP risk classification standards: based on expected water depth, expected values of affected population and expected values of affected GDP, adopting a matrix method to formulate flood-affected population and GDP risk classification standards with standard grid dimensions, wherein the threshold value of the risk classification standards is adjusted according to the characteristics of a research area and the application target of the division result;
step 5, determining flood influence population and GDP risk level: and determining the flood influence population and the GDP risk level of each standard grid in the research area according to the calculated expected water depth, the influenced population expected value, the influenced GDP expected value and the formulated risk level dividing standard in the standard grids.
2. The flood influence population and GDP risk assessment method according to claim 1, wherein the calculation method of the influenced population value and the influenced GDP value under each flood reproduction period depends on the accuracy of the collected land utilization and resident map layer, and when the scale is less than or equal to 1:5 ten thousand, the calculation formula of the influenced population value and the influenced GDP value within the flood flooding range under a certain flood reproduction period in the standard grid is:
in the formula, pop e The population value is affected in the flood inundation range under a certain flood reproduction period in the standard grid; pop is the value of the general population in the standard grid; GDP (GDP) e An affected GDP value within a flood flooding range at a certain flood reproduction period within a standard grid; GDP is the total GDP value in the standard grid; a is that f Flood inundation areas under the flood reproduction period in the standard grid; a is the total area of a standard grid;
when the scale is larger than 1:5 ten thousand, the calculation formulas of the affected population value and the affected GDP value in the flood submerging range under a certain flood reproduction period in the standard grid are as follows:
in the formula, pop e The population value is affected in the flood inundation range under a certain flood reproduction period in the standard grid; pop is the value of the general population in the standard grid; GDP (GDP) e An affected GDP value within a flood flooding range at a certain flood reproduction period within a standard grid; GDP is the total GDP value in the standard grid; a is that fr Flooding the residential area for floodwater under the flood reproduction period within the standard grid; a is that r The total area of the residential areas in the standard grid; a is that gj Flood inundation areas of the jth GDP partition in the standard grid under the flood reproduction period; m is the total number of GDP partitions of the standard grid; a is the total area of a standard grid;
the calculation formulas of the expected values of the affected population and the expected value of the affected GDP in the standard grid are respectively as follows:
in the formula, pop QW Is an expected value for the affected population within the standard grid; pop ei P for standard grid i The population value affected within the flood inundation range; pop ei+1 P for standard grid i+1 The population value affected within the flood inundation range; GDP (GDP) QW Is an affected GDP expected value within a standard grid; GDP (GDP) ei P for standard grid i Affected GDP values within flood flooding range; GDP (GDP) ei+1 P for standard grid i+1 Is a flood inundation of affected GDP values within a range.
3. The flood impact population and GDP risk assessment method of claim 1, wherein the validation criteria for flood coverage is a region with a flooding depth greater than 0.05 m.
4. The flood impact population and GDP risk assessment method of claim 1, wherein the number of flood reproduction periods is at least four.
5. The flood impact population and GDP risk assessment method of claim 1, wherein the standard grid has a spatial resolution of 30 arcsec x 30 arcsec.
6. The flood impact population and GDP risk assessment method based on standard grid according to claim 1, wherein the collection of flood inundation analysis data in step 1 directly adopts the outcome data for the area with the flood risk map compiled; for the areas without the flood risk map, a hydrologic model is constructed, and simulation analysis of a flood scheme is carried out according to the regulations of the flood risk map compiling guide rules in China, so that result data are obtained;
the standard grid population and GDP index data are collected and generated according to social and economic statistics by combining residential land, land utilization types and night lamplight brightness space distribution, or standard grid population and GDP data products generated by professional departments are adopted;
and collecting river water systems, embankment layers and land utilization and resident map layers according to latest investigation or mapping data when collecting data.
7. The method for evaluating the risk of flood influence population and GDP according to claim 1, wherein the risk classification criteria of the flood influence population and GDP in step 4 are five levels, namely high risk, medium and low risk, and low risk.
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN202310287406.1A CN116362541B (en) | 2023-03-23 | 2023-03-23 | Flood influence population and GDP risk assessment method based on standard grid |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN202310287406.1A CN116362541B (en) | 2023-03-23 | 2023-03-23 | Flood influence population and GDP risk assessment method based on standard grid |
Publications (2)
| Publication Number | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| CN116362541A true CN116362541A (en) | 2023-06-30 |
| CN116362541B CN116362541B (en) | 2023-09-22 |
Family
ID=86941318
Family Applications (1)
| Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN202310287406.1A Active CN116362541B (en) | 2023-03-23 | 2023-03-23 | Flood influence population and GDP risk assessment method based on standard grid |
Country Status (1)
| Country | Link |
|---|---|
| CN (1) | CN116362541B (en) |
Citations (7)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN108764702A (en) * | 2018-05-23 | 2018-11-06 | 中水东北勘测设计研究有限责任公司 | Consider the area to be protected against floods flood risk assessment method of flood control works safety |
| CN109376996A (en) * | 2018-09-18 | 2019-02-22 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Flood losses appraisal procedure and system based on statistical yearbook and geography information |
| CN110956412A (en) * | 2019-12-16 | 2020-04-03 | 珠江水利委员会珠江水利科学研究院 | Flood dynamic assessment method, device, medium and equipment based on real-scene model |
| CN112765912A (en) * | 2021-01-26 | 2021-05-07 | 武汉大学 | Evaluation method for social and economic exposure degree of flood disasters based on climate mode set |
| CN113689151A (en) * | 2021-10-25 | 2021-11-23 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Flood control risk assessment method for cross river downstream area by cross-river basin water diversion project |
| CN115310806A (en) * | 2022-08-08 | 2022-11-08 | 河海大学 | Flood disaster loss evaluation method based on spatial information grid |
| CN115507822A (en) * | 2022-06-09 | 2022-12-23 | 武汉大学 | Flood risk prediction method under hydrographic cyclic variation drive |
-
2023
- 2023-03-23 CN CN202310287406.1A patent/CN116362541B/en active Active
Patent Citations (7)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN108764702A (en) * | 2018-05-23 | 2018-11-06 | 中水东北勘测设计研究有限责任公司 | Consider the area to be protected against floods flood risk assessment method of flood control works safety |
| CN109376996A (en) * | 2018-09-18 | 2019-02-22 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Flood losses appraisal procedure and system based on statistical yearbook and geography information |
| CN110956412A (en) * | 2019-12-16 | 2020-04-03 | 珠江水利委员会珠江水利科学研究院 | Flood dynamic assessment method, device, medium and equipment based on real-scene model |
| CN112765912A (en) * | 2021-01-26 | 2021-05-07 | 武汉大学 | Evaluation method for social and economic exposure degree of flood disasters based on climate mode set |
| CN113689151A (en) * | 2021-10-25 | 2021-11-23 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Flood control risk assessment method for cross river downstream area by cross-river basin water diversion project |
| CN115507822A (en) * | 2022-06-09 | 2022-12-23 | 武汉大学 | Flood risk prediction method under hydrographic cyclic variation drive |
| CN115310806A (en) * | 2022-08-08 | 2022-11-08 | 河海大学 | Flood disaster loss evaluation method based on spatial information grid |
Non-Patent Citations (5)
| Title |
|---|
| GUOBIN MA 等: "GIS-based Risk Assessment Model for Flood Disaster in China", 《2010 18TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON GEOINFORMATICS>, pages 1 - 5 * |
| 孟玉婧;白美兰;董祝雷;: "内蒙古山洪致灾阈值与定量化风险评估研究", 暴雨灾害, no. 03, pages 285 - 292 * |
| 张亚琳;安炜;李毓富;茅?赵海燕;: "基于FloodArea模型的洪安涧河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划", 干旱气象, no. 04, pages 868 - 874 * |
| 张倩玉;许有鹏;雷超桂;王跃峰;韩龙飞;: "东南沿海水库下游地区基于动态模拟的洪涝风险评估", 湖泊科学, no. 04, pages 694 - 700 * |
| 王静;李娜;王杉;: "洪水危险性评价指标与等级划分研究综述", 中国防汛抗旱, no. 12, pages 29 - 34 * |
Also Published As
| Publication number | Publication date |
|---|---|
| CN116362541B (en) | 2023-09-22 |
Similar Documents
| Publication | Publication Date | Title |
|---|---|---|
| CN103218522B (en) | A kind of method and device for dividing flood disaster risk grade | |
| CN112765912B (en) | Evaluation method for social and economic exposure degree of flood disasters based on climate mode set | |
| KR101315121B1 (en) | Flood prevention system based on GIS and method of the same | |
| CN111666314B (en) | Multi-factor-based storm surge vulnerability assessment method and device and computer equipment | |
| CN114254802B (en) | Prediction method for vegetation coverage space-time change under climate change drive | |
| CN115271373A (en) | Method and system for defining elastic development boundary of urban group | |
| CN115809800A (en) | Flood disaster risk assessment method | |
| CN109255485A (en) | Rainfall-triggered geologic hazard early-warning and predicting model and learning method based on RBFN machine learning | |
| CN115439029A (en) | Tsunami disaster key defense area determination method and system | |
| CN114372625A (en) | Urban waterlogging rapid forecasting method based on multi-output machine learning algorithm | |
| CN111652522A (en) | Ecological risk assessment method for natural protected area | |
| CN109784720B (en) | Power distribution network risk assessment method based on space-time grid association under typhoon disaster | |
| CN110704999A (en) | Method for quantifying action degree of flood-causing factors of coastal cities and dividing flood-causing factors | |
| CN116362541B (en) | Flood influence population and GDP risk assessment method based on standard grid | |
| Tang et al. | Scenario-based economic and societal risk assessment of storm flooding in Shanghai | |
| BOGDANJARANOVIC et al. | Using a coastal storm hazard index to assess storm impacts in Lisbon | |
| CN115859840A (en) | Ocean environment dynamic element region extreme value analysis method | |
| CN113689151B (en) | Flood control risk assessment method for cross river downstream area by cross-river basin water diversion project | |
| CN115841042A (en) | Urban ecological toughness three-dimensional evaluation method constructed based on toughness theory | |
| Safaripour et al. | Miyandoab flood risk mapping using dematel and SAW methods and DPSIR model | |
| CN115496128A (en) | Urban waterlogging risk forecasting method based on raininess-raininess characteristic parameter combined distribution | |
| CN116739133B (en) | Regional reed NDVI pattern simulation prediction method based on natural-social dual-drive analysis | |
| CN118552354B (en) | Seawall site selection method, device, equipment and medium | |
| Chowdhury et al. | Flood Mapping For Jamuna River In Bangladesh Using Hec-Ras 1d/2d Coupled Model To Assess The Adverse Effect Of The Flood On The Agriculture And Infrastructure Of The Jamuna Flood Plain | |
| CN116432934B (en) | Road grid office optimization method for road flood control |
Legal Events
| Date | Code | Title | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| GR01 | Patent grant | ||
| GR01 | Patent grant |