CN115439029A - Tsunami disaster key defense area determination method and system - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a tsunami disaster key defense area determination method and system, and relates to the technical field of marine disaster prevention and reduction. The method comprises the following steps: performing earthquake characteristic analysis according to historical earthquake tsunami data to determine an earthquake tsunami source of a target area; determining a tsunami numerical value calculation area, and calculating an earthquake tsunami initial displacement field of the tsunami numerical value calculation area; performing inundation calculation on a target area by adopting a preset tsunami flood plain numerical model; carrying out tsunami risk grade division to obtain a tsunami disaster inundation risk grade of a target area; determining the vulnerability grade of a disaster-bearing body of a target area; performing tsunami disaster risk assessment to generate a tsunami disaster risk grade assessment result; and (4) defining a tsunami key defense area, and generating a tsunami disaster key defense area determination result. The tsunami disaster area identification method can be used for accurately and effectively evaluating and zoning tsunami disaster risks in coastal areas of coastal cities, and further accurately and effectively demarcating key defense areas of tsunami disasters.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of marine disaster prevention and reduction, in particular to a tsunami disaster key defense area determining method and system.
Background
Tsunami is a row of gravity waves with long period generated by converting huge potential energy generated by the rising or falling of a large-area water body caused by the dislocation of the ocean crust into kinetic energy of the water body, the tsunami waves carry huge energy to directly impact the shore, the wave height is suddenly increased, and the huge waves can be used for flushing and rolling off coastal buildings, people and livestock to cause disasters. Tsunami may be caused by ocean bottom earthquake, volcanic eruption, sudden elevation or subsidence of the ocean bottom, collapse of coastal mountains, landslide and weather, impact of celestial bodies on the ocean, and underwater nuclear explosion.
Tsunami belongs to one of marine disasters, and needs to be accurately classified to further effectively prevent and treat the tsunami. Regarding defining key defense areas related to ocean disasters, only key defense area defining technologies related to storm surge disasters are provided at present, but the tsunami disasters and the storm surge disasters have different generation mechanisms and different disaster receivers to be considered by two types of disasters, so the key defense area defining technologies related to the storm surge disasters cannot be applied to the tsunami disasters. So far, no method exists for defining key defense areas for tsunami disasters, and further effective marine disaster prevention and reduction work cannot be carried out.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to overcome the above problems or at least partially solve the above problems, embodiments of the present invention provide a tsunami disaster focus defense area determination method and system, which can accurately and effectively evaluate and determine tsunami disaster risks in coastal sea areas of coastal areas, and further accurately and effectively define tsunami disaster focus defense areas, thereby providing technical support for a decision-making work for disaster prevention and reduction of marine disasters.
The embodiment of the invention is realized by the following steps:
in a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for identifying a tsunami disaster key defense zone, including the following steps:
acquiring and carrying out earthquake characteristic analysis according to basic geographic data, historical earthquake data information and historical tsunami data information of a target area so as to determine an earthquake and tsunami source of the target area;
determining a tsunami numerical calculation region based on an earthquake tsunami source, and simulating an earthquake tsunami initial displacement field of the tsunami numerical calculation region according to the earthquake tsunami source and corresponding earthquake source parameters;
performing inundation calculation on a target area by adopting a preset tsunami overbank numerical model based on the initial displacement field of the earthquake tsunami, basic geographic data, historical earthquake data information and historical tsunami data information to obtain tsunami inundation information;
performing tsunami danger level division according to the tsunami inundation information and preset tsunami disaster inundation danger level division standard information to obtain a tsunami disaster inundation danger level of a target area;
acquiring and determining the vulnerability grade of a disaster-bearing body of a target area according to the area proportion of the secondary land utilization type patches of the target area and preset vulnerability assessment guide rule information;
performing tsunami disaster risk assessment according to the tsunami disaster inundation risk level and the vulnerability level of a disaster-bearing body in the target area to generate a tsunami disaster risk level assessment result;
and delimiting tsunami key defense areas according to the tsunami disaster risk level evaluation result and preset tsunami defense area standard information to generate a tsunami disaster key defense area decision result.
In order to solve the technical problem that no method for defining a tsunami disaster key defense area exists in the prior art and further effective tsunami disaster prevention and reduction work cannot be performed, the tsunami disaster prevention and reduction method is used for evaluating and analyzing data of multiple aspects related to the tsunami by adopting an evaluation method based on simulation of various potential earthquake tsunami source scenes and the like, so that tsunami disaster danger of coastal areas is evaluated, tsunami disaster risk evaluation division is performed by combining soil fragility of a tsunami disaster evaluation unit, and tsunami key defense area definition is performed based on tsunami disaster risk evaluation and division results. The tsunami disaster risk assessment method can accurately and effectively assess and divide tsunami disaster risks in coastal sea areas of coastal cities, so that accurate and effective tsunami disaster key defense areas are defined, and therefore technical support is provided for marine disaster prevention and disaster reduction decision-making work. The defining result of the tsunami disaster key defense area can provide reference for space differentiation management in aspects of marine disaster prevention and control strategy research, national soil space planning, urban disaster prevention and reduction engineering construction planning, marine or coastal engineering project site selection, marine disaster early warning and forecasting key area selection, marine observation network construction and optimization and the like; in addition, the result defined by a key defense area, a typical disaster-bearing body damage mechanism and a risk pre-judging model are combined for research and development, and the influence range of the disaster and the damage condition of the typical disaster-bearing body can be pre-judged in the disaster emergency process. Providing comprehensive and accurate support for multiple aspects.
Based on the first aspect, in some embodiments of the present invention, the tsunami disaster focus defense zone determination method further includes the following steps:
and acquiring and correcting the setting range of the key defense area according to disaster-bearing body distribution information and historical basic information of the target area, and optimizing and adjusting the setting result of the tsunami disaster key defense area to obtain the setting result of the target tsunami disaster key defense area.
Based on the first aspect, in some embodiments of the present invention, the method for obtaining and determining the vulnerability grade of the disaster-bearing body of the target area according to the area proportion of the secondary land use type patches of the target area and the preset vulnerability assessment guide rule information includes the following steps:
taking the secondary class block unit of the current land utilization status as a vulnerability assessment space unit;
and acquiring and determining the vulnerability grade of the disaster-bearing body of each vulnerability assessment space unit in the target area according to the area proportion of the secondary land utilization type patches of the target area and preset vulnerability assessment guide rule information.
Based on the first aspect, in some embodiments of the present invention, the tsunami disaster focus defense area determining method further includes the following steps:
and acquiring and adjusting the vulnerability grade of the disaster-bearing body of each vulnerability assessment space unit according to the information of the disaster-bearing body in each vulnerability assessment space unit so as to obtain the target vulnerability grade of the disaster-bearing body of each vulnerability assessment space unit.
Based on the first aspect, in some embodiments of the present invention, the basic geographic information data includes basic geographic information, socioeconomic data, seismic source information data, and typical tidal wave station tsunami wave sequence data.
Based on the first aspect, in some embodiments of the present invention, the tsunami disaster focus defense area determining method further includes the following steps:
and performing model verification on the tsunami flood beach numerical model according to the typical tidal level station tsunami fluctuation sequence data in the basic geographic data.
Based on the first aspect, in some embodiments of the present invention, the tsunami disaster focus defense area determining method further includes the following steps:
and carrying out standardized processing on the basic geographic data, and carrying out target screening on the processed data to obtain target basic geographic data.
In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a tsunami disaster key defense area defining system, which includes a seismic source determining module, a calculation area determining module, an inundation calculating module, a risk dividing module, a vulnerability evaluating module, a risk evaluating module, and a defense area defining module, wherein:
the earthquake source determination module is used for acquiring and carrying out earthquake characteristic analysis according to basic geographic data, historical earthquake data information and historical tsunami data information of the target area so as to determine an earthquake and tsunami source of the target area;
the calculation region determination module is used for determining a tsunami numerical calculation region based on the earthquake and tsunami source and simulating an earthquake and tsunami initial displacement field of the tsunami numerical calculation region according to the earthquake and tsunami source and corresponding earthquake source parameters;
the inundation calculation module is used for performing inundation calculation on a target area by adopting a preset tsunami overbank numerical model based on the initial displacement field of the earthquake tsunami, the basic geographic data, the historical earthquake data information and the historical tsunami data information to obtain tsunami inundation information;
the risk classification module is used for performing tsunami risk grade classification according to the tsunami inundation information and preset tsunami disaster inundation risk grade classification standard information to obtain a tsunami disaster inundation risk grade of a target area;
the vulnerability assessment module is used for acquiring and determining the vulnerability grade of the disaster-bearing body of the target area according to the area proportion of the secondary land utilization type patches of the target area and preset vulnerability assessment guide rule information;
the risk evaluation module is used for carrying out tsunami disaster risk evaluation according to the tsunami disaster inundation risk level and the vulnerability level of the disaster-bearing body in the target area to generate a tsunami disaster risk level evaluation result;
and the defense area dividing module is used for dividing a tsunami key defense area according to the tsunami disaster risk level evaluation result and preset tsunami defense area dividing standard information to generate a tsunami disaster key defense area dividing result.
In order to solve the technical problem that no method for defining tsunami disaster key defense areas exists in the prior art and further effective work for preventing and reducing marine disasters cannot be performed, the system adopts an evaluation method based on simulation of multiple potential earthquake tsunami source scenes to evaluate and analyze data in multiple aspects related to earthquake tsunamis by matching a plurality of modules such as a seismic source determination module, a calculation area determination module, an inundation calculation module, a danger division module, a vulnerability evaluation module, a risk evaluation module and a defense area definition module, and aims at requirements for preventing and reducing marine disasters in coastal cities (target areas), so that tsunami disaster risks in coastal areas of the coastal cities are evaluated, tsunami disaster risk evaluation zoning is performed by combining the land vulnerability of a tsunami disaster evaluation unit, and tsunami disaster risk evaluation and zoning are performed based on tsunami disaster risk evaluation and zoning results, and tsunami key defense areas are defined. The system can accurately and effectively evaluate and partition the tsunami disaster risks in coastal areas of coastal cities, and further accurately and effectively demarcate key defense areas of the tsunami disasters, so that technical support is provided for marine disaster prevention and mitigation decision-making work. The defining result of the tsunami disaster key defense area can provide reference for space differentiation management in aspects of marine disaster prevention and control strategy research, national soil space planning, urban disaster prevention and reduction engineering construction planning, marine or coastal engineering project site selection, marine disaster early warning and forecasting key area selection, marine observation network construction and optimization and the like; in addition, the result defined by the key defense area, the typical disaster-bearing body damage mechanism and the risk pre-judging model are combined for research and development, and the disaster influence range and the typical disaster-bearing body damage condition can be pre-judged in the disaster emergency process. Providing comprehensive and accurate support for multiple aspects.
In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides an electronic device, which includes a memory for storing one or more programs; a processor. The program or programs, when executed by a processor, implement the method of any of the first aspects as described above.
In a fourth aspect, embodiments of the present application provide a computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, which, when executed by a processor, implements the method according to any one of the first aspect described above.
The embodiment of the invention at least has the following advantages or beneficial effects:
the embodiment of the invention provides a tsunami disaster key defense area determination method and a tsunami disaster key defense area determination system, which solve the technical problems that no method for determining a tsunami disaster key defense area exists in the prior art and further effective work of preventing and reducing the tsunami disaster cannot be performed. The tsunami disaster risk assessment method can accurately and effectively assess and divide tsunami disaster risks in coastal sea areas of coastal cities, so that accurate and effective tsunami disaster key defense areas are defined, and therefore technical support is provided for marine disaster prevention and disaster reduction decision-making work.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, the drawings required in the embodiments will be briefly described below, it should be understood that the following drawings only illustrate some embodiments of the present invention and therefore should not be considered as limiting the scope, and those skilled in the art can also obtain other related drawings based on the drawings without inventive efforts.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a tsunami disaster focus defense area determination method according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a flowchart illustrating a method for determining a focus defense area of a tsunami disaster according to an embodiment of the present invention, wherein the focus defense area is determined by a range correction method;
fig. 3 is a flowchart illustrating vulnerability level evaluation of a disaster-bearing body in a tsunami disaster focus defense zone determination method according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a complete diagram of a method for defining a tsunami disaster focus defense area according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 5 is a schematic block diagram of a tsunami disaster focus defense zone determination system according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 6 is a block diagram of an electronic device according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 7 is a schematic view of subsea fault parameters according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Description of reference numerals: 100. a seismic source determination module; 200. a calculation region determination module; 300. a inundation calculation module; 400. a risk division module; 500. a vulnerability assessment module; 600. a risk assessment module; 700. a defense area delimiting module; 101. a memory; 102. a processor; 103. a communication interface.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are some, but not all embodiments of the present invention. The components of embodiments of the present invention generally described and illustrated in the figures herein may be arranged and designed in a wide variety of different configurations.
Thus, the following detailed description of the embodiments of the present invention, presented in the figures, is not intended to limit the scope of the invention, as claimed, but is merely representative of selected embodiments of the invention. All other embodiments, which can be obtained by a person skilled in the art without inventive step based on the embodiments of the present invention, are within the scope of protection of the present invention.
It should be noted that: like reference numbers and letters refer to like items in the following figures, and thus, once an item is defined in one figure, it need not be further defined and explained in subsequent figures.
It is noted that, herein, relational terms such as first and second, and the like may be used solely to distinguish one entity or action from another entity or action without necessarily requiring or implying any actual such relationship or order between such entities or actions. Also, the terms "comprises," "comprising," or any other variation thereof, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises a list of elements does not include only those elements but may include other elements not expressly listed or inherent to such process, method, article, or apparatus. Without further limitation, an element defined by the phrases "comprising a," "8230," "8230," or "comprising" does not exclude the presence of additional like elements in a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises the element.
Example (b):
as shown in fig. 1, 3, and 4, in a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a tsunami disaster focus defense zone identification method, including the following steps:
s1, acquiring and carrying out seismic characteristic analysis according to basic geographic data, historical seismic data information and historical tsunami data information of a target area to determine an earthquake and tsunami source of the target area; the basic geographic data comprise basic geographic information, social and economic data, seismic source information data and typical tidal level station tsunami wave sequence data; the historical seismic data information comprises a historical seismic database; the historical tsunami data information comprises a historical tsunami database.
Further, still include: and carrying out standardized processing on the basic geographic data, and carrying out target screening on the processed data to obtain target basic geographic data.
In some embodiments of the invention, basic geographic information, social and economic data, seismic source information data, typical tidal level station tsunami fluctuation sequence data, historical seismic data information and historical tsunami data information are collected and collated, and the collected data are subjected to standardized processing and quality control, audit and screening to obtain more accurate data and provide comprehensive and accurate reference data for follow-up.
Analyzing and researching seawall earthquake activity space-time distribution characteristics of potential earthquake and tsunami risks in cities and counties (target regions) based on the collected and sorted basic geographic data, historical earthquake data information and historical tsunami data information, statistically analyzing global and regional historical earthquake databases and related data according to seabed fault geological structures, and determining typical earthquake epicenter positions (the epicenter positions refer to longitude and latitude positions where events occur) which may influence an evaluation region; segmenting the active fault according to seismic activity, geological structure characteristics and the like, comprehensively adopting seismic structure method, historical seismic method and other seismic level upper limit estimation methods according to historical replay and structure analogy principles, and determining the seismic structure and potential seismic level upper limit section by section. And (4) for the areas with rich historical seismic data, sorting the maximum seismic level and seismic structure characteristics of the historical earthquake in the earthquake zone, and evaluating the upper limit of the seismic level of the dive zone in the research area. And determining the sources of the transoceanic, regional and local earthquake tsunamis.
Determining the epicenter position of a typical earthquake that may affect the evaluation area: collecting and sorting the historical earthquake events and tsunami events of NOAA in the United states, statistically analyzing global and regional historical earthquake databases and related data, selecting tsunami event earthquake parameters (the epicenter positions refer to the longitude and latitude positions where the events occur) which have influence on tsunami disasters in the history of the region aiming at the research region, and determining the epicenter positions of typical earthquakes which possibly influence the evaluation region.
Determining sources of the transoceanic, regional and local earthquake tsunamis according to the historical seismic data information and the historical tsunami data information: a transoceanic tsunami refers to a tsunami whose source is more than 1000km from the area affected by the tsunami, or whose propagation time exceeds 3 hours. Regional tsunami refers to tsunami with tsunami source within about 1000km from the region affected by the tsunami, or with tsunami propagation time not exceeding 1-3 h. Local tsunami means that the source of the tsunami is within about 100km of the area destructively affected by the tsunami, or the tsunami propagation time does not exceed 1h.
Analyzing the statistical results of the structure of the historical tsunami event and the mechanism parameters of the seismic source, and determining the seismic source parameters required by the tsunami numerical model, wherein the seismic source parameters comprise the longitude, the latitude, the upper limit of the seismic level, the depth, the strike angle, the sliding angle and the dip angle of the potential seismic source. And (4) considering the possibility of cascade fracture in extreme cases, and giving a division result and fracture parameters of a cascade fracture source.
S2, determining a tsunami numerical calculation region based on an earthquake and tsunami source, and simulating an earthquake and tsunami initial displacement field of the tsunami numerical calculation region according to the earthquake and tsunami source and corresponding earthquake source parameters;
s3, performing inundation calculation on the target area by adopting a preset tsunami overboard numerical model based on the initial displacement field of the earthquake tsunami, the basic geographic data, the historical earthquake data information and the historical tsunami data information to obtain tsunami inundation information; the tsunami flooding information includes information such as a tsunami flooding range and a flooding depth.
In some embodiments of the invention, the area of tsunami numerical calculation is determined, and the calculation area should cover the continental and the sea areas of the assessment city (county). Configuring the resolution and time step of a computational grid; calculating an initial displacement field of the earthquake tsunami by using the selected earthquake parameters; and performing inundation calculation on the evaluation area by using the established tsunami inundation numerical model to obtain information such as tsunami inundation range, inundation depth and the like required by tsunami risk evaluation and zoning. During the process of propagation and submergence of tsunami waves near the shore, the flow velocity of the tsunami waves is closely related to factors such as the land form and the terrain of the area. Selecting the average of the highest tide levels of tide stations in city and county (target region) or tide stations around the city and county in the next 19 years and months as astronomical tide levels, and representing a flooding range caused by superposition of tsunami waves and astronomical tide high tide levels; and the resolution of the tsunami model at the city and county scales is not more than 50m.
Establishing a tsunami flood beach numerical model according to the basic data information, and carrying out tsunami flood beach numerical model verification; the building can be that a tsunami overbank numerical model is built according to basic geographic data, submarine topography and shore shape data, a tsunami simulation numerical mode COMCOT developed by the university of Kannell in America can be adopted to carry out tsunami potential seismic source scene simulation in terms of selection of the tsunami model, the model can simulate the whole process of generating, spreading and increasing water of the tsunami, the model can adopt multilayer grid nesting, and different resolutions and calculation settings are respectively selected according to the spreading characteristics and requirements of the tsunami in different areas, so that the precision and the calculation efficiency of the model are considered.
Since tsunami waves are waves of very large wavelength, the wavelengths of hundreds of kilometers are much greater than the depth of ocean water, and thus tsunami waves are generally simulated by the shallow water equation. The shallow water theory assumes: relative to the gravity acceleration, the movement of the water particles in the vertical direction can be ignored, so the movement of the water particles in the vertical direction has no influence on the pressure distribution, and the fluid is in a hydrostatic equilibrium state; in the vertical direction, the horizontal movement velocity of the fluid is the same.
Based on the above assumptions, the shallow water equation can be expressed as:
wherein, the formula (1) is a continuous equation (mass conservation equation), the formulas (2) and (3) are motion equations (momentum conservation equation), x and y are horizontal coordinates, t is time, h is static water depth,
for water level variation, u and v are x and y squares, respectivelyThe flow rate of the upward water, g is the acceleration of gravity,
and
bottom friction in the x and y directions, respectively.
The bottom friction force can be expressed in the form:
wherein D is the total water depth (D = h +)
) And f is the coefficient of friction. The friction coefficient f and the Mannich coefficient n have the following relations:
therefore, the bottom friction can again be expressed as:
in addition, M and N are the flux in the x and y directions, respectively, i.e.
From the above conditions, therefore, shallow water equations (1), (2), (3) can again be represented in the form:
the basic control equations of the COMCOT mode are the shallow water equations (4), (5), (6). The mode utilizes a finite difference method to calculate the shallow water-long wave equation, and the difference method is a staggered dominant frog leap method. The wave height and volume flux M, N are staggered in both time and space, with the wave height and water depth being at the center of the grid and the volume flux being on the grid lines. The wave height and the volume flux are calculated in different time step lengths by utilizing a spatial interleaving mode of physical quantities, so that the error can be reduced, and the numerical stability can be improved. Since the center difference method is used, the accuracy of the pattern is of the second order.
The preset tsunami flood beach numerical model can be optimized in parallel to generate a parallel tsunami flood beach numerical model. The open codes of the conventional tsunami flood plain numerical model are serial, so that a large amount of tsunami scene simulation and tsunami early warning timeliness cannot be met; considering the requirements of a large number of tsunami scene simulation and tsunami early warning aging, a COMCOT tsunami mode is subjected to parallelization optimization. The original program is a single-core serial program, a multi-core CPU only has one core participating in operation, and the waste of hardware resources is serious. Firstly, performing conventional optimization on the model, including loop-level optimization, IO optimization and the like, for example, optimizing IO operation in CONMOME _ S, using relevant compiling options such as '-ipo' to help a compiler optimize the code of the model, and improving the running speed of the model; and secondly, single-node internal thread level parallelization is carried out, the OpenMPI guidance statements are adopted to carry out vectorization and parallelization on a large number of time-consuming cycles, redundant array copy operations are reduced, finally the running time of the optimized model can be controlled within 10 minutes, and the running speed is improved.
Further, still include: and performing model verification on the tsunami flood beach numerical model according to the typical tidal level station tsunami fluctuation sequence data in the basic geographic data.
The verification method for the tsunami flood beach numerical model comprises the following steps of:
and verifying the tsunami flood beach numerical model according to the historical tsunami data information to obtain a model verification result. Model verification can be carried out by utilizing collected tsunami fluctuation sequence data of a typical tide level station, the tsunami amplitude and the tsunami flooding range obtained by calculation are compared with historical records, the accuracy of a numerical calculation method is analyzed, and the reasonability of the obtained evaluation result is ensured; the analysis process refers to analyzing the accuracy of a numerical calculation method, such as simulating a japanese 311 earthquake tsunami event, comparing the simulated tsunami wave amplitude value with a history of the observation of a drain-ocean association and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) of the NOAA in the united states, and seeing whether the simulated tsunami wave amplitude is consistent with the first wave arrival time of the tsunami wave amplitude of the buoy and the distribution trend of the wave amplitude.
In some embodiments of the invention, further comprising:
based on potential transoceanic, regional and local earthquake tsunami sources, performing inundation calculation on an evaluation region by adopting a tsunami flood beach numerical model after parallel optimization to obtain tsunami inundation information; the above process of performing inundation calculation includes the steps of:
firstly, acquiring basic data parameter information; the parameter information comprises basic geographic information data of a research area, sea bottom land forms, shoreline data, sea walls, potential tsunami source parameters, tsunami observation data, a model simulation range, nesting layers and grid resolution of each layer, the manufacture of terrain grids needed by the model is carried out by combining the basic geographic information data, the sea bottom land forms and other information, and a mode is compiled and input into a control file according to the potential tsunami source parameters.
Secondly, compiling a mode input control file according to the source and the seismic parameter information of the overseas, regional and local seismic tsunamis, and calculating an initial field of the seismic tsunamis; the COMCOT tsunami model comprises a plurality of tsunami generation mechanisms, including instantaneous seabed breakage, instantaneous seabed movement, water surface displacement of a specific shape and artificial waves which are calculated through a fault model. For earthquake induced instantaneous sea floor fractures, it can be calculated from elastic finite fault theory. The calculation method of the interruption layer in the research adopts an OKADA model. The OKADA model assumes, according to the theory of elastic finite faults, that there exists a rectangular fault plane in the semi-infinite elastic plane, which is ideally represented as the impact contact of two tectonic plates at the time of the earthquake. The slip of the fault plane causes a deformation of the semi-infinite medium, which is known as an earthquake that causes motion of the sea floor. The occurrence of tsunamis is caused by the motion of the sea floor induced by earthquakes. As shown in fig. 7, in the OKADA model, the following parameters are generally required to simulate this motion: the earthquake center position (longitude and latitude coordinates), the earthquake source depth (H), the fault length (L), the fault width (W), the fault strike angle (theta), the fault inclination angle (delta), the fault sliding distance (u) and the fault sliding angle (lambda).
And thirdly, performing inundation calculation on the evaluation area by adopting a tsunami flood beach numerical model to obtain tsunami inundation information. The tsunami flooding information includes tsunami risk assessment and information such as tsunami flooding range and flooding depth required for zoning. During the propagation and submerging process of the tsunami wave near the shore, the flow velocity of the tsunami wave is closely related to factors such as the land form and the terrain of the area. And selecting the average of the highest tide levels of tide stations in city and county or the tide stations around the city and county in the next 19 years as the astronomical tide level, representing the flooding range caused by superposition of tsunami waves and the astronomical tide high tide levels, wherein the resolution of the city and county scale tsunami model is not more than 50m.
S4, tsunami danger level division is carried out according to tsunami inundation information and preset tsunami disaster inundation danger level division standard information to obtain a tsunami disaster inundation danger level of the target area;
in some embodiments of the invention, according to a tsunami flood beach numerical model result, according to the inundation depth affected by tsunami in coastal areas of city and county, tsunami disaster inundation risk level division is carried out; the tsunami disaster inundation risk grade division standard is as follows: the submergence depth h is more than 3m, and the submergence danger level of the tsunami disaster is I level; the submergence depth is 3 ≧ h >1.2m, and the tsunami disaster submergence danger level is II; the submergence depth is 1.2 ≧ h >0.5m, and the tsunami disaster submergence danger level is level III; the submergence depth is 0.5 ≧ h >0m, and tsunami disaster submergence danger level is IV level.
S5, acquiring and determining the vulnerability grade of the disaster-bearing body of the target area according to the area proportion of the secondary land utilization type patches of the target area and preset vulnerability assessment guide rule information;
further, the method for determining the vulnerability grade of the disaster object comprises the following steps:
s51, taking the secondary class block unit of the current land utilization situation as a vulnerability assessment space unit;
and S52, obtaining and determining the vulnerability grade of the disaster-bearing body of each vulnerability assessment space unit in the target area according to the area proportion of the secondary land utilization type patches of the target area and preset vulnerability assessment guide rule information.
Further, still include: and acquiring and adjusting the vulnerability level of the disaster-bearing body of each vulnerability assessment space unit according to the information of the disaster-bearing body in each vulnerability assessment space unit so as to obtain the target vulnerability level of the disaster-bearing body of each vulnerability assessment space unit.
In some embodiments of the invention, the level of vulnerability of the secondary class space unit is determined by taking the current land utilization secondary class block unit as the vulnerability assessment space unit. And determining the vulnerability grade of the community (village) according to the area proportion of the patches of different secondary land utilization types. If important disaster objects exist in the evaluation unit or serious secondary disasters are caused by tsunami disasters, the vulnerability grade of the evaluation unit is adjusted according to vulnerability evaluation guide information.
S6, tsunami disaster risk assessment is carried out according to the tsunami disaster inundation risk level and the vulnerability level of a disaster-bearing body of the target area, and a tsunami disaster risk level assessment result is generated;
in some embodiments of the present invention, tsunami disaster risk evaluation is performed based on a preset correspondence between tsunami disaster inundation risk levels and risk and vulnerability level ranges according to tsunami inundation risk and vulnerability analysis results in cities and counties, as shown in table 1, where table 1 is a correspondence between tsunami disaster inundation risk levels and risk and vulnerability level ranges.
Table 1:
and S7, defining a tsunami key defense area according to the tsunami disaster risk level evaluation result and preset tsunami defense area determination standard information, and generating a tsunami disaster key defense area determination result.
In some embodiments of the invention, different potential seismic source plate submerging depths and offshore area tsunami amplitude distribution are compared, and one condition with the largest influence on a research area is selected to carry out subsequent key defense area determination analysis;
B. and comprehensively considering the tsunami disaster risk level evaluation result, the risk level evaluation result and the maximum amplitude distribution of the offshore area, and developing the primary planning work of the key defense area. The initial definition criteria for tsunami defense zones are as follows:
1) A risk grade (R) or a risk grade (H) in coastal cities and counties is primarily defined as a tsunami key defense area for the I-grade community;
hazard level (R) = submerging depth >3m (hazard level is I level);
risk rating (H) = risk rating (R) × vulnerability rating (V);
wherein when R is class I and V is class I, the class H is equal to class I; when R is grade I and V is grade II, the grade H is equal to grade I; when R is class II and V is class I, the H class is equal to class I.
The key defense area range in the city and county along the coast = the number of grids × the grid resolution (the number of grids indicates the number of grids when the risk level (R) or the risk level (H) is level I, for example, the grid resolution is 50m × 50 m).
2) Considering that all water activities with wave heights of more than 2m are not suitable to be carried out, aquaculture facilities such as fish raft and the like can be damaged in different degrees when the wave heights exceed 2m, the wind resistance level of most fishing boats is less than 4 (corresponding to the deep water wave height of about 1.0 m), and an area with the tsunami wave amplitude of more than or equal to 2m on the coastal sea area is initially determined as a key defense area.
3) And selecting areas with relatively concentrated distribution as major defense areas of tsunami disaster by combining the actual submergence range of the actual tsunami and the spatial distribution of the tsunami in the sea area with the wave amplitude larger than 2 m.
The tsunami disaster key defense area range = coastal city and county key defense area range + coastal sea area key defense area range.
Further, as shown in fig. 2, the present invention further includes: and S8, acquiring and correcting the setting range of the key defense area according to the disaster-bearing body distribution information and the historical basic information of the target area, and optimizing and adjusting the setting result of the tsunami disaster key defense area to obtain the setting result of the target tsunami disaster key defense area.
In some embodiments of the present invention, in order to improve the accuracy of defining the tsunami disaster focus defense area, it is further necessary to perform focus defense area defining range correction based on the above steps. According to the distribution condition of particularly important disaster-bearing bodies along the sea, the boundary conditions such as historical disaster conditions, urban river networks, economic and population distribution, urban roads and the like are comprehensively considered, and the major defense area range of the tsunami disaster is revised. The revision principle is as follows:
(1) coastal areas containing particularly important disaster-bearing bodies (built and built within 5 years) are determined as tsunami disaster key defense areas in principle. The disaster relief body which meets one of the following conditions is regarded as a particularly important disaster relief body:
type 1, coastal lines have more than one billion investment in a 2km land depth range, tsunami disasters can cause the death of important personnel, serious economic loss or facilities with particularly severe social influence, such as nuclear power stations, airports, industrial parks and the like;
type 2, large hazardous article storage bases, large power plants or power hubs and the like exist in the coastline within the range of 500m deep land;
type 4, mariculture concentrated distribution area within 2km near shore.
(2) Land areas that have suffered a tsunami disaster in the last 10 years are generally within the scope of major defense areas. By contrast analysis of field exploration and survey (key exploration and protection capability, attributes of important disaster-bearing bodies and historical disaster condition of survey) and the submergence range and influence condition of historical typical storm surge disaster cases, land areas meeting one of the following conditions are brought into the range of key defense areas:
densely populated areas (greater than 100 people/km 2) that have suffered tsunami flood disasters in the last 10 years;
coastal areas (except sand beach) with particularly low terrain (elevation less than 3 m) and densely populated areas (more than 100 people/km 2) with no sluice protection in the range of 300m of river mouth.
In order to solve the technical problem that no method for defining a tsunami disaster key defense area exists in the prior art and further effective tsunami disaster prevention and reduction work cannot be performed, the tsunami disaster prevention and reduction method is used for evaluating and analyzing data of multiple aspects related to the tsunami by adopting an evaluation method based on simulation of various potential earthquake tsunami source scenes and the like, so that tsunami disaster danger of coastal areas is evaluated, tsunami disaster risk evaluation division is performed by combining soil fragility of a tsunami disaster evaluation unit, and tsunami key defense area definition is performed based on tsunami disaster risk evaluation and division results. The tsunami disaster risk assessment method can accurately and effectively assess and partition tsunami disaster risks in coastal areas of coastal cities, so that accurate and effective determination of key defense areas of tsunami disasters can be performed, and technical support can be provided for marine disaster prevention and mitigation decision-making work conveniently. The defining result of the tsunami disaster key defense area can provide reference for space differentiation management in aspects of marine disaster prevention and control strategy research, national soil space planning, urban disaster prevention and reduction engineering construction planning, marine or coastal engineering project site selection, marine disaster early warning and forecasting key area selection, marine observation network construction and optimization and the like; in addition, the result defined by a key defense area, a typical disaster-bearing body damage mechanism and a risk pre-judging model are combined for research and development, and the influence range of the disaster and the damage condition of the typical disaster-bearing body can be pre-judged in the disaster emergency process. Providing comprehensive and accurate support for multiple aspects.
As shown in fig. 5, in a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a tsunami disaster focus defense zone defining system, which includes a seismic source determining module 100, a calculation area determining module 200, an inundation calculating module 300, a risk classifying module 400, a vulnerability evaluating module 500, a risk evaluating module 600, and a defense zone defining module 700, wherein:
the earthquake source determination module 100 is configured to acquire and perform earthquake feature analysis according to basic geographic data of a target area, historical earthquake data information, and historical tsunami data information to determine an earthquake and tsunami source of the target area;
the calculation region determination module 200 is configured to determine a tsunami numerical calculation region based on an earthquake tsunami source, and simulate an earthquake tsunami initial displacement field of the tsunami numerical calculation region according to the earthquake tsunami source and corresponding earthquake source parameters;
the inundation calculation module 300 is configured to perform inundation calculation on a target area by using a preset tsunami overbank numerical model based on the initial displacement field of the earthquake tsunami, the basic geographic data, the historical earthquake data information and the historical tsunami data information to obtain tsunami inundation information;
the risk classification module 400 is configured to perform tsunami risk classification according to the tsunami inundation information and preset tsunami disaster inundation risk classification standard information to obtain a tsunami disaster inundation risk grade of the target area;
the vulnerability assessment module 500 is used for acquiring and determining the vulnerability grade of the disaster-bearing body of the target area according to the area proportion of the secondary land utilization type patches of the target area and preset vulnerability assessment guide rule information;
the risk evaluation module 600 is configured to perform tsunami disaster risk evaluation according to the tsunami disaster inundation risk level and the vulnerability level of the disaster-bearing body in the target area, and generate a tsunami disaster risk level evaluation result;
and the defense area defining module 700 is configured to define a tsunami focus defense area according to the tsunami disaster risk level evaluation result and preset tsunami defense area defining standard information, and generate a tsunami disaster focus defense area defining result.
In order to solve the technical problem that no method for defining tsunami disaster key defense areas exists in the prior art and further effective work for preventing and reducing marine disasters cannot be performed, the system adopts the cooperation of a plurality of modules such as a seismic source determination module 100, a calculation area determination module 200, an inundation calculation module 300, a risk division module 400, a vulnerability evaluation module 500, a risk evaluation module 600, a defense area definition module 700 and the like to evaluate and analyze data of multiple aspects related to the tsunamis by adopting an evaluation method based on simulation of various potential tsunami source scenes for the requirements of coastal cities (target areas) for preventing and reducing marine disasters and the like, thereby evaluating the tsunami disaster risks of coastal areas of the coastal cities, carrying out tsunami disaster risk evaluation by combining the land vulnerability of a tsunami disaster evaluation unit, and developing tsunami key defense areas based on zoning tsunami disaster risk evaluation and zoning results. The system can accurately and effectively evaluate and divide tsunami disaster risks in coastal sea areas of coastal cities, and further accurately and effectively define key defense areas of tsunami disasters, so that technical support is provided for marine disaster prevention and mitigation decision-making work. The defining result of the tsunami disaster key defense area can provide reference for space differentiation management in aspects of marine disaster prevention and control strategy research, national soil space planning, urban disaster prevention and reduction engineering construction planning, marine or coastal engineering project site selection, marine disaster early warning and forecasting key area selection, marine observation network construction and optimization and the like; in addition, the result defined by the key defense area, the typical disaster-bearing body damage mechanism and the risk pre-judging model are combined for research and development, and the disaster influence range and the typical disaster-bearing body damage condition can be pre-judged in the disaster emergency process. Providing comprehensive and accurate support for multiple aspects.
As shown in fig. 6, in a third aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides an electronic device, which includes a memory 101 for storing one or more programs; a processor 102. The one or more programs, when executed by the processor 102, implement the method of any of the first aspects as described above.
Also included is a communication interface 103, with the memory 101, processor 102, and communication interface 103 being electrically connected to each other, directly or indirectly, to enable transfer or interaction of data. For example, the components may be electrically connected to each other via one or more communication buses or signal lines. The memory 101 may be used to store software programs and modules, and the processor 102 executes various functional applications and data processing by executing the software programs and modules stored in the memory 101. The communication interface 103 may be used for communicating signaling or data with other node devices.
The Memory 101 may be, but is not limited to, a Random Access Memory (RAM), a Read Only Memory (ROM), a Programmable Read-Only Memory (PROM), an Erasable Read-Only Memory (EPROM), an electrically Erasable Read-Only Memory (EEPROM), and the like.
The processor 102 may be an integrated circuit chip having signal processing capabilities. The Processor 102 may be a general-purpose Processor, including a Central Processing Unit (CPU), a Network Processor (NP), and the like; but also Digital Signal Processors (DSPs), application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs), field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) or other Programmable logic devices, discrete Gate or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components.
In the embodiments provided in the present application, it should be understood that the disclosed method and system and method can be implemented in other ways. The method and system embodiments described above are merely illustrative, for example, the flowcharts and block diagrams in the figures illustrate the architecture, functionality, and operation of possible implementations of methods and systems, methods and computer program products according to various embodiments of the present application. In this regard, each block in the flowchart or block diagrams may represent a module, segment, or portion of code, which comprises one or more executable instructions for implementing the specified logical function(s). It should also be noted that, in some alternative implementations, the functions noted in the block may occur out of the order noted in the figures. For example, two blocks shown in succession may, in fact, be executed substantially concurrently, or the blocks may sometimes be executed in the reverse order, depending upon the functionality involved. It will also be noted that each block of the block diagrams and/or flowchart illustration, and combinations of blocks in the block diagrams and/or flowchart illustration, can be implemented by special purpose hardware-based systems which perform the specified functions or acts, or combinations of special purpose hardware and computer instructions.
In addition, functional modules in the embodiments of the present application may be integrated together to form an independent part, or each module may exist alone, or two or more modules may be integrated to form an independent part.
In a fourth aspect, embodiments of the present application provide a computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, which, when executed by the processor 102, implements the method according to any one of the first aspect described above. The functions, if implemented in the form of software functional modules and sold or used as a stand-alone product, may be stored in a computer readable storage medium. Based on such understanding, the technical solution of the present application or portions thereof that substantially contribute to the prior art may be embodied in the form of a software product stored in a storage medium and including instructions for causing a computer device (which may be a personal computer, a server, or a network device) to execute all or part of the steps of the method according to the embodiments of the present application. And the aforementioned storage medium includes: a U-disk, a removable hard disk, a Read-Only Memory (ROM), a Random Access Memory (RAM), a magnetic disk or an optical disk, and other various media capable of storing program codes.
The above is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, and is not intended to limit the present invention, and various modifications and changes will occur to those skilled in the art. Any modification, equivalent replacement, or improvement made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.
It will be evident to those skilled in the art that the application is not limited to the details of the foregoing illustrative embodiments, and that the present application may be embodied in other specific forms without departing from the spirit or essential attributes thereof. The present embodiments are therefore to be considered in all respects as illustrative and not restrictive, the scope of the application being indicated by the appended claims rather than by the foregoing description, and all changes which come within the meaning and range of equivalency of the claims are therefore intended to be embraced therein. Any reference sign in a claim should not be construed as limiting the claim concerned.
Claims (10)
1. A tsunami disaster key defense area determination method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring and carrying out earthquake characteristic analysis according to basic geographic data, historical earthquake data information and historical tsunami data information of a target area so as to determine an earthquake and tsunami source of the target area;
determining a tsunami numerical calculation region based on an earthquake tsunami source, and simulating an earthquake tsunami initial displacement field of the tsunami numerical calculation region according to the earthquake tsunami source and corresponding earthquake source parameters;
performing inundation calculation on a target area by adopting a preset tsunami flood beach numerical model based on the initial displacement field of the earthquake tsunami, the basic geographic data, the historical earthquake data information and the historical tsunami data information to obtain tsunami inundation information;
performing tsunami danger level division according to the tsunami inundation information and preset tsunami disaster inundation danger level division standard information to obtain a tsunami disaster inundation danger level of a target area;
acquiring and determining the vulnerability grade of a disaster-bearing body of a target area according to the area proportion of the secondary land utilization type patches of the target area and preset vulnerability assessment guide rule information;
performing tsunami disaster risk assessment according to the tsunami disaster inundation risk level and the vulnerability level of a disaster-bearing body in the target area to generate a tsunami disaster risk level assessment result;
and delimiting tsunami key defense areas according to the tsunami disaster risk level evaluation result and preset tsunami defense area standard information to generate a tsunami disaster key defense area decision result.
2. The tsunami disaster focus defense zone determination method according to claim 1, characterized by further comprising the steps of:
and acquiring and correcting the setting range of the key defense area according to disaster-bearing body distribution information and historical basic information of the target area, and optimizing and adjusting the setting result of the tsunami disaster key defense area to obtain the setting result of the target tsunami disaster key defense area.
3. The tsunami disaster key defense zone determination method according to claim 1, wherein the method for acquiring and determining the vulnerability grade of disaster-bearing bodies in the target area according to the area proportion of the secondary land use type patches in the target area and preset vulnerability assessment guide rule information comprises the following steps:
taking a land utilization current status secondary class block unit as a vulnerability assessment space unit;
and acquiring and determining the vulnerability grade of the disaster-bearing body of each vulnerability assessment space unit in the target area according to the area proportion of the secondary land utilization type patches of the target area and preset vulnerability assessment guide rule information.
4. The tsunami disaster focus defense area determination method according to claim 3, characterized by further comprising the steps of:
and acquiring and adjusting the vulnerability level of the disaster-bearing body of each vulnerability assessment space unit according to the information of the disaster-bearing body in each vulnerability assessment space unit so as to obtain the target vulnerability level of the disaster-bearing body of each vulnerability assessment space unit.
5. The tsunami disaster key defense zone determination method according to claim 1, wherein the basic geographic data comprise basic geographic information, socioeconomic data, seismic source information data and typical tidal station tsunami wave sequence data.
6. The tsunami disaster focus defense area determination method according to claim 5, characterized by further comprising the steps of:
and performing model verification on the tsunami flood beach numerical model according to the typical tidal level station tsunami fluctuation sequence data in the basic geographic data.
7. The tsunami disaster focus defense zone determination method according to claim 1, characterized by further comprising the steps of:
and carrying out standardized processing on the basic geographic data, and carrying out target screening on the processed data to obtain target basic geographic data.
8. A tsunami disaster key defense zone determination system is characterized by comprising a seismic source determination module, a calculation area determination module, a inundation calculation module, a danger division module, a vulnerability assessment module, a risk assessment module and a defense zone determination module, wherein:
the earthquake source determination module is used for acquiring and carrying out earthquake characteristic analysis according to basic geographic data, historical earthquake data information and historical tsunami data information of the target area so as to determine an earthquake and tsunami source of the target area;
the calculation region determination module is used for determining a tsunami numerical value calculation region based on the earthquake tsunami source and simulating an earthquake tsunami initial displacement field of the tsunami numerical value calculation region according to the earthquake tsunami source and corresponding earthquake source parameters;
the inundation calculation module is used for carrying out inundation calculation on a target area by adopting a preset tsunami flood beach numerical model based on the initial displacement field of the earthquake tsunami, the basic geographic data, the historical earthquake data information and the historical tsunami data information so as to obtain tsunami inundation information;
the risk classification module is used for performing tsunami risk grade classification according to the tsunami inundation information and preset tsunami disaster inundation risk grade classification standard information to obtain a tsunami disaster inundation risk grade of a target area;
the vulnerability assessment module is used for acquiring and determining the vulnerability grade of the disaster-bearing body of the target area according to the area proportion of the secondary land utilization type patches of the target area and preset vulnerability assessment guide rule information;
the risk evaluation module is used for carrying out tsunami disaster risk evaluation according to the tsunami disaster inundation risk level and the vulnerability level of the disaster-bearing body in the target area to generate a tsunami disaster risk level evaluation result;
and the defense area dividing module is used for dividing a tsunami key defense area according to the tsunami disaster risk level evaluation result and preset tsunami defense area dividing standard information to generate a tsunami disaster key defense area dividing result.
9. An electronic device, comprising:
a memory for storing one or more programs;
a processor;
the one or more programs, when executed by the processor, implement the method of any of claims 1-7.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored which, when being executed by a processor, carries out the method according to any one of claims 1-7.
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