CN116184497B - Quick estimation method for characteristic parameters of earthquake tsunami initial field - Google Patents
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Abstract
The application relates to a rapid estimation method of an earthquake tsunami initial field characteristic parameter, which comprises the following steps: acquiring a historical earthquake event related to the submarine earthquake according to basic parameters of the submarine earthquake monitored at the current moment and geological structure information of the periphery of the submarine earthquake; calculating the main axis dip angles of all the related historical earthquakes, and grouping the historical earthquake events according to a seismic source mechanism based on dip angle values; acquiring the distance and weight between each historical earthquake and the current submarine earthquake in each set of historical earthquake events, further estimating each set of earthquake source mechanism results, and determining the weight of each set of earthquake source mechanism results; determining a seismic source mechanism of the current submarine earthquake according to the weight of each group of seismic source mechanisms; and taking the seismic source mechanism of the estimated current submarine earthquake and the estimated earthquake break geometric parameter as the tsunami initial field characteristic parameter of the submarine earthquake at the current moment. According to the method, on the premise of ensuring the accuracy of tsunami numerical forecasting, the timeliness of tsunami numerical forecasting is greatly improved.
Description
Technical Field
The application relates to the technical field of computers, in particular to a rapid estimation method of an earthquake tsunami initial field characteristic parameter.
Background
Tsunami is regarded as a very dangerous tsunami disaster, and recently has been paid attention to various coastal countries. Since 80% of the tsunami disasters are historically caused by submarine earthquakes, how to rapidly forecast disasters caused by earthquake tsunami along the coast becomes a global hot spot problem.
The main principle that tsunami disasters can be predicted is that the wave propagation speed generated by submarine earthquakes is faster than that of tsunami waves, people can infer characteristic parameters (source mechanism) of a source generating tsunami through inversion of earthquake waves recorded by earthquake and earthquake stations, and further through tsunami numerical simulation, the time and influence range of the tsunami propagation are calculated based on the characteristic parameters of the source. Because the tsunami numerical model is relatively stable, the initial field of the tsunami source plays a vital role in the accuracy of the final forecasting result, and under the condition of the same position and the same earthquake magnitude, the tsunami scale caused by the backflushing fault is far greater than that caused by the sliding fault. Currently, the disaster prediction result (a 04 in fig. 1) of tsunami is usually completed through tsunami numerical simulation (a 03 in fig. 1), and the initial field (a 02 in fig. 1) of earthquake tsunami is used as the input parameter of tsunami numerical simulation (a 03 in fig. 1), which determines the accuracy and the effectiveness of tsunami prediction. Further, the characteristic parameters of the initial field of the earthquake tsunami (a 03 in fig. 1) include the source mechanism of the ocean bottom earthquake (a 01 in fig. 1) and the geometrical parameters of the earthquake break.
At present, basic parameters of submarine earthquakes can be obtained in a few minutes through an earthquake monitoring system, however, a seismic source mechanism is usually obtained through inversion of earthquake waveforms recorded by earthquake stations, release time is relatively delayed, professional personnel are required to perform station screening, waveform interception and other column operations, the time required by the seismic source mechanism for calculating a result is different according to different selected waveform components, the time required by calculating the result is generally different from hours to days, and the requirement of tsunami early warning timeliness is difficult to meet. Although the latest achievements apply machine learning algorithms to quickly determine the source mechanism, the method needs to perform a large number of calculation examples, and the large range and distribution of the global-based dive band are difficult to perform the large number of calculation examples, so that the method is difficult to apply to actual tsunami warning business. In actual tsunami forecasting work, under the condition that calculation of a seismic source mechanism is not completed, a forecaster needs to estimate the seismic source mechanism of the submarine earthquake according to the past experience, and the method has high requirements on the experience of the forecaster and can cause certain difference in forecasting results.
Based on the above-mentioned problems, there is a need for a method for quickly determining a submarine seismic source mechanism (a 01 in fig. 1) and further quickly determining characteristic parameters of an earthquake tsunami initial field (a 03 in fig. 1), and constructing a tsunami wave initial field according to the characteristic parameters to perform tsunami prediction, so that the timeliness of tsunami prediction is greatly improved on the premise of ensuring the accuracy of tsunami prediction.
Disclosure of Invention
First, the technical problem to be solved
In view of the above-mentioned drawbacks and shortcomings of the prior art, the present application provides a method for rapidly estimating the characteristic parameters of the initial field of an earthquake tsunami, so as to rapidly improve the timeliness of tsunami prediction on the premise of ensuring the accuracy of tsunami prediction.
(II) technical scheme
In order to achieve the above purpose, the main technical scheme adopted by the application comprises the following steps:
in a first aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a method for quickly estimating an initial field characteristic parameter of an earthquake tsunami, including:
s01, acquiring a historical earthquake event related to the submarine earthquake according to basic parameters of the submarine earthquake monitored at the current moment and geological structure information of the periphery of the submarine earthquake;
s02, grouping all the related historical seismic events according to a seismic source mechanism to obtain a grouping result;
s03, obtaining the distance between each historical earthquake and the current submarine earthquake in each set of historical earthquake events and the normalized weight of the historical earthquake, and obtaining the weight of each set of earthquake source mechanism results;
s04, determining a seismic source mechanism of the current submarine earthquake according to the weight of each group of seismic source mechanism results;
s05, estimating geometric parameters of the seismic fracture through a magnitude-fracture empirical formula;
and taking the seismic source mechanism of the estimated current submarine earthquake and the estimated earthquake break geometric parameter as the tsunami initial field characteristic parameter of the submarine earthquake at the current moment.
Optionally, the basic seismic parameters of the ocean bottom seismic at the current moment include the following four types:
the time, the middle position, the depth and the magnitude of the earthquake;
the seismic base parameters for each historical seismic event include the following four: the time, the middle position, the depth and the magnitude information of the earthquake;
the source mechanism for each historical seismic event includes: strike angle, dip angle and slip angle of fault plane.
Optionally, S01 includes: along the radial direction of the submarine fault, the radial direction of the fault is vertical, and a historical seismic event related to the submarine earthquake is obtained from a historical seismic database; the radius of the trend of the search interruption layer is larger than that of the vertical fault.
Specifically, the method includes taking the earthquake central position of the submarine earthquake at the current moment as the center, taking the length of the direction along the current peripheral fault of the submarine earthquake as a, taking the length of the direction along the vertical fault as b, dividing a rectangle on a map, and acquiring a historical earthquake event with the earthquake central position in the rectangle from a historical earthquake database as a historical earthquake event associated with the current submarine earthquake;
the search rectangle has a greater length along the fault path a than the length along the vertical fault path b. a and b are greater than 0.
Optionally, S02 includes:
s021, converting fault plane parameters of a seismic source mechanism of each historical seismic event into a seismic moment tensor M according to each historical seismic event:
wherein the strike angle of the fault plane is s, the dip angle is p, and the slip angle is r
M xx ＝-sin(s)*sin(s)*sin(r)*sin(2*p)-sin(2*s)*cos(r)*sin(p)
M yy ＝-cos(s)*cos(s)*sin(r)*sin(2*p)+sin(2*s)*cos(r)*sin(p)
M zz ＝sin(r)*sin(2*p)
M xy ＝M yx ＝cos(2*s)*cos(r)*sin(p)+0.5*sin(2*s)*sin(r)*sin(2*p)
M xz ＝M zx ＝-cos(s)*cos(r)*cos(p)-sin(s)*sin(r)*cos(2*p)
M yz ＝M zy ＝-sin(s)*cos(r)*cos(p)+cos(s)*sin(r)*cos(2*p)
S022, calculating the inclination angles of three stress principal axes of the seismic source according to the fault plane parameters of the seismic source mechanism of each historical seismic event;
specifically, the eigenvalues of the calculation matrix |m| are L respectively 1 ,L 2 ,L 3 Corresponding feature vector V 1 ,V 2 ,V 3 Wherein L is 1 <L 2 <L 3 ，
And->i takes the values of 1,2 and 3, and the P-axis inclination angles P corresponding to the three stress main shafts P, T and B respectively can be calculated p Inclination angle P of T axis t Inclination angle P of B axis b The method comprises the following steps:
s023, grouping based on the main shaft corresponding to the maximum inclination angle of each historical earthquake, and dividing the main shaft into three groups; if the inclination angle P of the P axis p Maximum is divided into positive faults, if the T-axis inclination angle P t The maximum is divided into reverse faults, if the inclination angle P of the B axis b The largest is divided into walk-slip faults.
Optionally, S03 includes:
obtaining the space distance d between each historical earthquake and the current submarine earthquake in each group i The reciprocal is taken as the weight of the historical earthquake and the current submarine earthquake, and the normalized weight E of each historical earthquake i The method comprises the following steps:
i represents the serial number of the historical earthquake related to the current earthquake, i is an integer greater than 0;
each set of historical seismic events and timesWeight E of distance of front ocean bottom earthquake j Weights as a result of the set of source mechanisms;
j represents the sequence number of the current group; i represents the sequence number of the historical seismic event in the current group j; and i and j are integers which are not 0, and j is less than or equal to 3.
Optionally, S04 includes:
s041, weight E according to each group of source mechanism result j And moment tensor M for each historical earthquake in each group i Obtaining moment tensors GM of the set of historical earthquakes as a result of the set of source mechanisms j The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the The weight of the source mechanism result of the group of historical earthquakes is E j ；
j represents the sequence number of the current group; j is an integer other than 0, and j is less than or equal to 3;
s042, select E using selection policy j Is a result GM of a seismic source mechanism j As a source mechanism for the estimated current ocean bottom seismic.
Optionally, the S042 includes:
select E j The source mechanism result corresponding to the largest value in the (a) is used as the source mechanism of the current submarine earthquake;
alternatively, judge E j Judging whether two or more values larger than a first preset threshold exist, if yes, judging whether the adjacent difference value of the two or more values is larger than a step difference value, if yes, judging whether the largest value is smaller than a second preset threshold, if not, selecting a source mechanism result corresponding to the largest value as a source mechanism of the current submarine earthquake, and when the largest value is smaller than or equal to the second preset threshold, selecting a source mechanism result corresponding to the second largest value as a source mechanism of the current submarine earthquake;
alternatively, judge E j Whether there are more than two values greater than a second preset threshold, if so, andoutputting and receiving a manually selected result when the adjacent difference value in the above two values is not larger than the step difference value, and taking a source mechanism result corresponding to the manually selected result as a source mechanism of the current submarine earthquake;
the second preset threshold is greater than the first preset threshold.
Optionally, S05 includes: estimating geometric parameters of the seismic fracture through a magnitude-fracture empirical formula;
and taking the seismic source mechanism of the estimated current submarine earthquake and the estimated earthquake break geometric parameter as the tsunami initial field characteristic parameter of the submarine earthquake at the current moment.
In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a computing device, including a memory and a processor, where the memory stores a computer program, and the processor executes a method for quickly estimating an initial field characteristic parameter of an earthquake and tsunami according to any one of the first aspect when executing the computer program.
In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present application further provides a computer readable storage medium, where a computer program is stored, where the computer program when executed by a processor performs a method for quickly estimating an initial field characteristic parameter of an earthquake and tsunami according to any one of the first aspect.
(III) beneficial effects
According to the method for rapidly estimating the initial field characteristic parameters of the tsunami of the earthquake, the problem of calculation speed of the conventional inversion method is solved, the source mechanism of the current submarine earthquake is estimated by means of the source mechanism of the historical earthquake data, the initial field characteristic parameters of the tsunami wave of the submarine earthquake are further obtained, the calculation speed is guaranteed, the output of second-level calculation results can be achieved in practical application, and a large amount of preparation calculation work is not needed.
According to the embodiment, the time-consuming calculation process in the prior art is avoided, the calculation can be completed only by collecting the information of the past historical seismic data from the historical seismic database, the calculation process is simple and novel in conception, an accurate estimation result can be quickly obtained, the calculation accuracy is higher than the manual estimation accuracy, and a plurality of options can be provided for a predictor to select.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a schematic diagram of a process of forecasting a tsunami;
fig. 2 is a flowchart of a method for quickly estimating an initial field characteristic parameter of an earthquake and tsunami according to an embodiment of the present application;
fig. 3 is a flowchart of a method for quickly estimating an initial field characteristic parameter of an earthquake and tsunami according to another embodiment of the present application;
FIG. 4 is a diagram showing the contrast of the initial fields of tsunami generated by different source mechanisms;
FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram of two forms of source mechanisms.
Detailed Description
The application will be better explained by the following detailed description of the embodiments with reference to the drawings.
In the prior art, the method for determining the submarine earthquake source mechanism is generally obtained through earthquake wave inversion, when the submarine earthquake occurs, the basic parameters of the submarine earthquake can be obtained in a few minutes through an earthquake monitoring system, however, the source mechanism is generally obtained through earthquake waveform inversion recorded by an earthquake station, the release time is relatively delayed, a professional is required to perform station screening, waveform interception and other column operations, the source mechanism is different according to different selected waveform components, the time required for calculating the result is also different, and the time required for calculating the result is generally different from a few hours to a few days, so that the requirement of tsunami early warning timeliness is difficult to meet. Although the latest achievements apply machine learning algorithms to quickly determine the source mechanism, the method needs to perform a large amount of calculation, and the large amount of calculation for the global diving band is not realized, so that the method is difficult to apply to actual tsunami warning service. In actual tsunami forecasting work, under the condition that calculation of a seismic source mechanism is not completed, a forecaster needs to estimate the seismic source mechanism of the submarine earthquake according to the past experience, and the method has high requirements on the experience of the forecaster and can cause certain difference in forecasting results.
Aiming at the problem that the tsunami warning requirement cannot be met due to overlong calculation time of a submarine seismic source mechanism, the application provides a rapid calculation method for acquiring the submarine seismic source mechanism at the current moment based on historical data, which can rapidly establish a tsunami initial field and further realize rapid tsunami warning.
The source mechanism (earthquake mechanism) refers to the mechanical process of the source region when the earthquake occurs. In the embodiment of the present application, the source mechanism of the earthquake can be represented as the strike angle, the dip angle and the slip angle of two orthogonal joint planes, which can be represented by beach balls, as shown in fig. 5. Or as the inclination and azimuth of the source in three stress principal axes, which can be mutually converted. At the same time, the strike angle, dip angle and slip angle of two orthogonal joint planes can also be converted into a 3*3 seismic moment tensor M by a conversion formula.
The source mechanism has two faces, one is a fault face and the other is an auxiliary face, which are both called a node face.
The left side of the graph in fig. 5 is a 7.1-level seismic event occurring in the vicinity of indonesia at the time of 14 days 11 and 14 of 2019, and the source mechanism of the seismic event is as shown in the left side of the graph in fig. 5, wherein the strike angle of the node surface 1 is 224 degrees, the dip angle is 50 degrees, and the slip angle is 102 degrees; the running angle of the joint surface 2 is 25 degrees, the inclined angle is 42 degrees, and the sliding angle is 76 degrees. The beach ball of its source mechanism is shown on the right side of figure 5 below.
The seismic source mechanism is obtained through seismic wave waveform calculation, and because the time required for waveform propagation is needed, the seismic source mechanism in the prior art takes more time, and the tsunami early warning result is different due to manual estimation.
The historical seismic events and historical seismic events in the following embodiments are meant to be one meaning, and different descriptions are used in different embodiments, each seismic event.
Example 1
As shown in fig. 2, an embodiment of the present application provides a flowchart of a method for quickly estimating an initial field characteristic parameter of an earthquake and tsunami according to an embodiment of the present application, where an execution subject of the method of the embodiment may be any computing device, and a specific implementation method of the method includes the following steps:
s01, acquiring a historical earthquake event related to the submarine earthquake according to basic parameters of the submarine earthquake monitored at the current moment and geological structure information of the periphery of the submarine earthquake;
for example, the basic parameters of the ocean bottom seismic at the current time may include: the time, the middle position, the depth and the magnitude of the earthquake;
the basic parameters for each historical seismic event may include: the time at which the earthquake occurs, the position of the center of the earthquake, the depth of the earthquake source and the magnitude of the earthquake magnitude.
The basic parameters of any earthquake include time of origin, position of center of origin (longitude, latitude), depth of origin and magnitude of origin. Typically, the geologic structure is determined from known information, and the distance between the historical earthquake and the current time-point-monitored ocean bottom earthquake is calculated;
the source mechanism for each historical seismic event may include: strike angle, dip angle, slip angle, etc. of the fault plane.
In the embodiment, the radial direction of the bottom fault trend can be along, the radial direction of the fault trend is vertical, and the historical earthquake event related to the submarine earthquake is obtained from a historical earthquake database;
the radius of the trend of the search interruption layer is larger than that of the vertical fault.
Currently, information on historical seismic events and source mechanisms may be obtained from a global source mechanism database. In this embodiment, based on the basic parameters of the submarine earthquake monitored at the current moment and the geological structure information of the periphery of the submarine earthquake, a search area of a historical earthquake, such as a rectangular area, can be determined, and the long direction is consistent with the fault trend of the whole area by taking the position of the earthquake center of the current earthquake as the center. The length and the width are respectively 20km and 10km as initial values, whether the number of the earthquakes in the area reaches a specified threshold value is judged, if so, the basic parameters of the earthquakes and a seismic source mechanism are collected, if not, the length and the width are increased at the same time, and the search range is enlarged until the number of the earthquakes reaches the specified threshold value.
S02, grouping all the related historical seismic events according to a seismic source mechanism to obtain a grouping result;
in this embodiment, for each historical seismic event obtained by the search, the source mechanism may be converted into a moment tensor M according to the following formula. If the strike angle of the fault plane is s, the dip angle is p, and the slip angle is r, the moment tensor M is:
M xx ＝-sin(s)*sin(s)*sin(r)*sin(2*p)-sin(2*s)*cos(r)*sin(p)
M yy ＝-cos(s)*cos(s)*sin(r)*sin(2*p)+sin(2*s)*cos(r)*sin(p)
M zz ＝sin(r)*sin(2*p)
M xy ＝M yx ＝cos(2*s)*cos(r)*sin(p)+0.5*sin(2*s)*sin(r)*sin(2*p)
M xz ＝M zx ＝-cos(s)*cos(r)*cos(p)-sin(s)*sin(r)*cos(2*p)
M yz ＝M zy ＝-sin(s)*cos(r)*cos(p)+cos(s)*sin(r)*cos(2*p)
the eigenvalues of the calculation matrix |M| are respectively L 1 ,L 2 ,L 3 Corresponding feature vector V 1 ,V 2 ,V 3 Wherein L is 1 <L 2 <L 3 ，And->i takes the values of 1,2 and 3, and three stress main shafts P, T and B respectively corresponding to the stress main shafts can be calculatedInclination angle P of P axis p Inclination angle P of T axis t Inclination angle P of B axis b The method comprises the following steps:
judging which axis has the greatest inclination angle, if the inclination angle P of the P axis p Maximum is divided into positive faults, if the T-axis inclination angle P t The maximum is divided into reverse faults, if the inclination angle P of the B axis b The largest is divided into walk-slip faults. These historical earthquakes are divided into at most three different sets of earthquakes according to the criteria described above. Namely, the first group is a walk-slip type earthquake/walk-slip fault SS, the second group is a thrust type earthquake/reverse fault earthquake R, and the third group is a normal fault earthquake N.
In other embodiments, two groups may be used, or only one group may be used.
S03, obtaining the distance between each historical earthquake and the current submarine earthquake in each set of historical earthquake events and the normalized weight of each historical earthquake, and determining the sum of the weights of each set of historical earthquake events as the weight of the set of earthquake source mechanism results.
In this embodiment, the weight of each historical earthquake is defined by the spatial distance d between the historical earthquake and the current earthquake i Inverse decision of (2), then normalized weight E for each historical event i The method comprises the following steps:
i represents the serial number of the historical earthquake associated with the current earthquake, and i is an integer greater than 0.
Weight E of distance between each group of historical earthquake and current submarine earthquake j Weights as a result of the set of source mechanisms;
j represents the sequence number of the current group; i represents the sequence number of the historical seismic event in the current group j; and i and j are integers which are not 0, and j is less than or equal to 3.
S04, determining the current earthquake source mechanism of the submarine earthquake according to the weight of each group of earthquake source mechanism results.
Weights E based on the results of each set of source mechanisms j And moment tensor M for each historical earthquake in each group i Obtaining moment tensors GM of the set of historical earthquakes as a result of the set of source mechanisms j The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the At this time, the weight corresponding to the set of source mechanism results is E j ；j represents the sequence number of the current group; j is an integer other than 0, and j is less than or equal to 3.
Then, select E using a selection policy j Is a result GM of a seismic source mechanism j As a source mechanism for the estimated current ocean bottom seismic. The weighted calculation of moment tensors of each seismic group can obtain an estimated seismic source mechanism, and the sum of weights of all historical earthquakes of the type is the probability of the seismic source mechanism result. When the probability of a source mechanism result for a certain group is greater than 0.5, the result is considered as an estimation result of the source mechanism, but if multiple groups are equal in probability, further manual selection is required.
S05, taking the estimated source mechanism of the current submarine earthquake and the estimated earthquake break geometric parameter as the tsunami initial field characteristic parameter of the submarine earthquake at the current moment.
In this embodiment, the geometric parameters (length, width and slip) of the seismic fracture can be estimated by the magnitude-fracture empirical formula and used as the initial field characteristic parameters of the tsunami wave along with the source mechanism.
According to the embodiment, the time-consuming calculation process in the prior art is avoided, the calculation can be completed only by collecting the information of the past historical seismic data from the historical seismic database, the calculation process is simple and novel in conception, an accurate estimation result can be quickly obtained, the calculation accuracy is higher than the manual estimation accuracy, and a plurality of options can be provided for a predictor to select.
Example two
The application provides a flow chart of a method for rapidly estimating the characteristic parameters of an earthquake tsunami initial field, which is provided by an embodiment of the application, as shown in fig. 3, and comprises the following steps:
step 01: according to the earthquake center position and the surrounding fault zone trend of the submarine earthquake observed at the current moment, searching historical earthquake data related to the current submarine earthquake from a global earthquake source mechanism database.
In this embodiment, the search range is determined first, the search range may be divided along the radial direction of the fault strike and the radial direction of the vertical fault strike, the historical seismic data of the search range is collected, if the historical seismic data reaches the specified threshold, the process is stopped, and if the historical seismic data does not reach the radial direction of the search can be prolonged until the historical seismic data reaches the specified threshold. The radius of the fault line is greater than the radius of the perpendicular fault line.
In this embodiment, the number of historical earthquakes in the historical earthquake data needs to satisfy a specified threshold, for example, more than 10, and the more the data in the range, the more accurate the result.
Typically, the mid-seismic location may be determined within minutes after any earthquake occurs. The trend of the peripheral fault zone of the submarine earthquake at the current moment can be manually input or the acquired information can be calculated in the existing mode.
Historical seismic data associated with the ocean bottom seismic is acquired based on the seismic base parameters. The historical seismic data thereat may include: the basic seismic parameters of each historical earthquake and the basic information of the seismic source mechanism of each historical earthquake.
Step 02: calculating the dip angles of three stress principal axes of a seismic source based on basic information of a seismic source mechanism, and grouping historical earthquakes in historical earthquakes according to the principal axis where the maximum dip angle is;
step 03: separately calculate eachThe distance (the length distance in space) between each historical earthquake and the current submarine earthquake in a group is d i Taking the reciprocal as the weight of the distance of each historical seismic event from the current ocean bottom seismic event, then the normalized weight E of each historical event i The method comprises the following steps:
the weight calculation is the inverse weighting of the spatial distance between the historical earthquake and the current earthquake. I.e., the weight is the inverse of the distance between the historical earthquake and the current earthquake, i.e., the closer the distance between the historical earthquake and the current earthquake is, the greater the weight is.
Weight E for distance of each set of historical seismic events from current ocean bottom seismic j Weights as a result of the set of source mechanisms;
the weight of each set of historical seismic is the sum of all the historical seismic weights in the set, the greater the seismic weight in the set, the greater the weight the set occupies, i.e., the greater the likelihood that the set of estimated seismic source mechanisms is the current seismic source mechanism.
Step 04: for the basic information of the basic parameters and the mechanism of the earthquake focus of each historical earthquake in each group, acquiring the moment tensor M of the submarine earthquake at the current time point and the historical earthquake i ；
Moment tensor M based on each historical earthquake in each group i Obtaining moment tensors of the set of historical earthquakes(2) The moment tensor GM of the history earthquake estimation earthquake focus mechanism in each earthquake group is mainly calculated j ，M j Moment tensor of j-th historical earthquake of current group E j The weight corresponding to the j-th set of historical earthquakes is obtained because the weight of the seismic source mechanism result of the group is obtained through weighted summation.
Step 05: according to E j And selecting a final source mechanism and using the final source mechanism and the estimated seismic fracture geometric parameters as tsunami initial field characteristic parameters of the submarine earthquake at the current moment.
In this embodiment, the sum of all the seismic weights involved in the calculation is 1, and the likelihood is the sum of the weights of all the seismic events in the current group. If the reverse fault has 10 events, the sum of the weights of the 10 events is 80%, then the probability of the source mechanism weighted by the 10 events is also 80%.
For example, E may be selected in this step j The source mechanism corresponding to the largest value in the (a) is used as the source mechanism of the current submarine earthquake;
in one embodiment, E may also be determined j Judging whether two or more values larger than a first preset threshold exist, if yes, judging whether the adjacent difference value of the two or more values is larger than a step difference value, if yes, judging whether the largest value is smaller than a second preset threshold, if not, selecting a source mechanism corresponding to the largest value as a source mechanism of the current submarine earthquake, and when the largest value is smaller than or equal to the second preset threshold, selecting the source mechanism corresponding to the second largest value as the source mechanism of the current submarine earthquake;
in other implementations, E may also be determined j If more than two values larger than a second preset threshold exist, outputting and receiving a manually selected result, and taking a source mechanism corresponding to the manually selected result as a source mechanism of the current submarine earthquake; the second preset threshold is greater than the first preset threshold.
The characteristic parameters of the initial field may include: the strike angle, the dip angle, the slip angle, the length and width of the whole earthquake fracture and the slip amount of the two joint surfaces.
Example III
To better understand the method of the second embodiment, a 7.1 grade seismic event occurring in the vicinity of indonesia at 2019, 11, 14 days of beijing was chosen as an example. After the earthquake occurs, the basic parameters (the position, the magnitude and the depth of the earthquake) of the earthquake can be obtained quickly through the positioning of nearby stations.
The search range is determined based on the seismic base parameters and the surrounding fault strike and 22 historical seismic events are collected. Wherein 4 positive fault seismic events, 17 reverse fault seismic events and 1 walk-slip fault seismic event.
The source mechanisms of each type of seismic event are converted into moment tensors and estimated, 3 source mechanisms and weights thereof are shown in the following table, where Kagan angles summarized by Kagan et al are applied to evaluate the deviation of the estimated source mechanisms from the inversion calculation results.
TABLE 1 example seismic source mechanism estimates for 3 different types of seismic
According to the magnitude of the earthquake, the breaking length of the earthquake can be estimated to be about 44km, the width is about 22km, the initial fields of tsunami waves obtained by different earthquake source mechanisms are shown as shown in fig. 4, it is not difficult to see from fig. 4 that the initial fields generated by the estimated reverse faults are almost identical to the initial fields generated by inversion results, and according to the estimated results, the weight of the reverse faults is up to 84%, so that the set of estimated results can be used as the final result of the earthquake source mechanism estimation, and the results obtained by the method can meet the requirement of tsunami early warning accuracy. Meanwhile, the whole calculation process can be completed in 2 seconds, and compared with a simple seismic wave inversion method, timeliness is greatly improved.
FIG. 4 (a) is a source mechanism resulting from inversion; FIG. 4 (b) is a source mechanism for inverse fault weighting; FIG. 4 (c) is a source mechanism for walk-slip fault weighting; fig. 4 (d) is a positive fault weighted source mechanism.
The four diagrams in fig. 4 are all plane diagrams, the abscissa is the map longitude, the ordinate is the latitude, the shape in the diagram is the distribution of the initial field calculated by different seismic source mechanisms on the plane, and fig. 4 (a) is the seismic source mechanism obtained by inversion, namely, the initial field is obtained by obtaining the seismic source mechanism through a calculation method. Three initial fields and the probability of each initial field can be estimated by the method of the present embodiment. Fig. 4 (b) is a method of the first or second embodiment to estimate an initial field with a large weight, and fig. 4 (c) and fig. 4 (d) are other two initial fields with smaller weights estimated in the method of the first or second embodiment.
Example III
As shown in fig. 3, the present embodiment further provides a computing device, including: a memory and a processor; the processor is configured to execute the computer program stored in the memory to implement the method of performing any of the first and second embodiments.
In another aspect, the present embodiment also provides a computer readable storage medium storing a computer program, where the computer program implements the steps of the method of any of the above embodiments when executed by a processor.
It should be noted that in the claims, any reference signs placed between parentheses shall not be construed as limiting the claim. The word "comprising" does not exclude the presence of elements or steps not listed in a claim. The word "a" or "an" preceding an element does not exclude the presence of a plurality of such elements. The application may be implemented by means of hardware comprising several distinct elements, and by means of a suitably programmed computer. In the claims enumerating several means, several of these means may be embodied by one and the same item of hardware. The use of the terms first, second, third, etc. are for convenience of description only and do not denote any order. These terms may be understood as part of the component name.
Furthermore, it should be noted that in the description of the present specification, the terms "one embodiment," "some embodiments," "example," "specific example," or "some examples," etc., refer to a specific feature, structure, material, or characteristic described in connection with the embodiment or example being included in at least one embodiment or example of the present application. In this specification, schematic representations of the above terms are not necessarily directed to the same embodiment or example. Furthermore, the particular features, structures, materials, or characteristics described may be combined in any suitable manner in any one or more embodiments or examples. Furthermore, the different embodiments or examples described in this specification and the features of the different embodiments or examples may be combined and combined by those skilled in the art without contradiction.
While preferred embodiments of the present application have been described, additional variations and modifications in those embodiments may occur to those skilled in the art upon learning the basic inventive concepts. Therefore, the appended claims should be construed to include preferred embodiments and all such variations and modifications as fall within the scope of the application.
It will be apparent to those skilled in the art that various modifications and variations can be made to the present application without departing from the spirit or scope of the application. Thus, the present application should also include such modifications and variations provided that they come within the scope of the following claims and their equivalents.
Claims (9)
1. A method for rapidly estimating an initial field characteristic parameter of an earthquake and tsunami, comprising:
s01, acquiring a historical earthquake event related to the submarine earthquake according to basic parameters of the submarine earthquake monitored at the current moment and geological structure information of the periphery of the submarine earthquake;
s02, grouping all the related historical seismic events according to a seismic source mechanism to obtain a grouping result;
s03, obtaining the distance between each historical earthquake and the current submarine earthquake in each set of historical earthquake events and the normalized weight of the historical earthquake, and obtaining the weight of each set of earthquake source mechanism results;
s03 includes: obtaining the space distance d between each historical earthquake and the current submarine earthquake in each group i The reciprocal is taken as the weight of the historical earthquake and the current submarine earthquake, and the normalized weight E of each historical earthquake i The method comprises the following steps:
weight E of distance between each group of historical earthquake and current submarine earthquake j Weights as a result of the set of source mechanisms;
j represents the sequence number of the current group; i represents the sequence number of the historical seismic event in the current group j; i and j are integers which are not 0, and j is less than or equal to 3;
s04, determining a seismic source mechanism of the current submarine earthquake according to the weight of each group of seismic source mechanism results;
s05, acquiring a tsunami initial field characteristic parameter of the submarine earthquake at the current moment according to the estimated earthquake source mechanism of the current submarine earthquake.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the base parameters of the ocean bottom earthquake at the current time comprise:
the time, the middle position, the depth and the magnitude of the earthquake;
the source mechanism for each historical seismic event includes: strike angle, dip angle and slip angle of fault plane.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein S01 comprises:
along the radial direction of the submarine fault, the radial direction of the fault is vertical, and a historical seismic event related to the submarine earthquake is obtained from a historical seismic database;
in the searching process, the fault trend radius is set to be larger than the radius of the vertical fault trend.
4. The method of claim 1, wherein S02 comprises:
s021, converting fault plane parameters of a seismic source mechanism of each historical seismic event into a seismic moment tensor M according to each historical seismic event:
wherein, the strike angle of the fault plane is s, the dip angle is p, and the slip angle is r, then:
M xx ＝-sin(s)*sin(s)*sin(r)*sin(2*p)-sin(2*s)*cos(r)*sin(p)
M yy ＝-cos(s)*cos(s)*sin(r)*sin(2*p)+sin(2*s)*cos(r)*sin(p)
M zz ＝sin(r)*sin(2*p)
M xy ＝M yx ＝cos(2*s)*cos(r)*sin(p)+0.5*sin(2*s)*sin(r)*sin(2*p)
M xz ＝M zx ＝-cos(s)*cos(r)*cos(p)-sin(s)*sin(r)*cos(2*p)
M yz ＝M zy ＝-sin(s)*cos(r)*cos(p)+cos(s)*sin(r)*cos(2*p)；
s022, calculating the inclination angles of three stress principal axes of the seismic source according to the fault plane parameters of the seismic source mechanism of each historical seismic event;
specifically, the eigenvalues of the calculation matrix |m| are L respectively 1 、L 2 、L 3 Corresponding feature vector V 1 、V 2 、V 3 Wherein L is 1 <L 2 <L 3 ，
And->i takes the values of 1,2 and 3; calculating the P-axis inclination angles P respectively corresponding to the three stress main shafts P, T and B p Inclination angle P of T axis t Inclination angle P of B axis b The method comprises the following steps:
s023, grouping based on the main shaft corresponding to the maximum inclination angle of each historical earthquake, and dividing the main shaft into three groups; if the inclination angle P of the P axis p Maximum is divided into positive faults, if the T-axis inclination angle P t The maximum is divided into reverse faults, if the inclination angle P of the B axis b The largest is divided into walk-slip faults.
5. The method of claim 1, wherein S04 comprises:
s041, weight E according to each group of source mechanism result j And moment tensor M for each historical earthquake in each group i Obtaining moment tensors GM of the set of historical earthquakes as a result of the set of source mechanisms j The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the The weight of the source mechanism result of the group of historical earthquakes is E j ；
j represents the sequence number of the current group; j is an integer other than 0, and j is less than or equal to 3,i and represents the serial number of the historical seismic event in the current group j;
s042, select E using selection policy j Is a result GM of a seismic source mechanism j As a source mechanism for the estimated current ocean bottom seismic.
6. The method of claim 5, wherein S042 comprises:
select E j The source mechanism result corresponding to the largest value in the (a) is used as the source mechanism of the current submarine earthquake;
alternatively, judge E j Judging whether two or more values larger than a first preset threshold exist, if yes, judging whether the adjacent difference value of the two or more values is larger than a step difference value, if yes, judging whether the largest value is smaller than a second preset threshold, if not, selecting a source mechanism result corresponding to the largest value as a source mechanism of the current submarine earthquake, and when the largest value is smaller than or equal to the second preset threshold, selecting a source mechanism result corresponding to the second largest value as a source mechanism of the current submarine earthquake;
alternatively, judge E j If more than two values larger than a second preset threshold exist, outputting and receiving a manually selected result, and taking a source mechanism result corresponding to the manually selected result as a source mechanism of the current submarine earthquake;
the second preset threshold is greater than the first preset threshold.
7. The method according to any one of claims 1 to 6, wherein S05 comprises:
estimating geometric parameters of the seismic fracture through a magnitude-fracture empirical formula;
and taking the seismic source mechanism of the estimated current submarine earthquake and the estimated earthquake break geometric parameter as the tsunami initial field characteristic parameter of the submarine earthquake at the current moment.
8. A computing device comprising a memory and a processor, said memory storing a computer program, said processor executing said computer program to perform a method for fast estimating an initial field characteristic of an earthquake and tsunami as claimed in any of the preceding claims 1 to 7.
9. A computer readable storage medium, characterized in that the computer readable storage medium has stored thereon a computer program which, when executed by a processor, performs a method for fast estimation of an initial field characteristic parameter of an earthquake and tsunami as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 7.
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