CN116341347B - Method and device for predicting oil spill drift diffusion - Google Patents

Method and device for predicting oil spill drift diffusion Download PDF

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CN116341347B
CN116341347B CN202310320944.6A CN202310320944A CN116341347B CN 116341347 B CN116341347 B CN 116341347B CN 202310320944 A CN202310320944 A CN 202310320944A CN 116341347 B CN116341347 B CN 116341347B
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particle
oil film
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spill
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CN116341347A (en
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杨逸秋
李燕
李云
于寒
郭凯旋
张苗茵
路玮
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NATIONAL MARINE ENVIRONMENTAL FORECASTING CENTER
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Abstract

Some embodiments of the present application provide a method and apparatus for predicting oil spill drift diffusion, where the method includes: at least inputting an oil film information file corresponding to a target oil film region and a moving speed of a release point source into an oil spilling model to obtain a first position and a second position of each oil particle in the target oil film region at two adjacent moments, wherein the oil spilling model is related to the moving speed of the release point source; and outputting a prediction result of each oil particle according to the first position, the second position and the coastline vector, wherein the prediction result comprises the position and the state of each oil particle. According to some embodiments of the application, the accuracy of simulating the continuous oil spill condition of the movable release point source on the water surface can be improved.

Description

Method and device for predicting oil spill drift diffusion
Technical Field
The application relates to the technical field of sea surface oil spill simulation, in particular to a method and a device for predicting oil spill drift diffusion.
Background
For the release form of the oil spill source, the existing oil spill model can simulate the instantaneous release of the oil spill of the fixed point source (such as the instantaneous oil leak of the oil production platform), the continuous release of the oil spill of the fixed point source (such as the continuous oil leak of the oil production platform), the prediction of a circular oil film, the prediction of a strip oil film and the prediction of the oil film drift of an irregular shape monitored by a satellite picture; from the space dimension, the existing oil spill model can simulate oil spill on the sea surface, underwater three-dimensional oil spill on a shallow water layer and deep sea oil spill.
The existing oil spill prediction model considers the oil spill source release modes including instantaneous release and continuous release, but is based on a fixed point source, namely the position of the release point source is not moved in the simulation. However, when the release point source is a moving ship on the sea surface, the prior art cannot realize accurate simulation on continuously discharging oil substances during the moving process of the moving ship.
Therefore, how to provide a method for predicting the oil spill drift diffusion with higher accuracy becomes a technical problem to be solved.
Disclosure of Invention
The technical scheme of the embodiment of the application can predict the oil spill condition of the release point source of the sea surface in the moving process, has higher accuracy, and provides reliable data support for analyzing the oil spill condition of the water surface (such as the sea surface, the lake surface or other horizontal surfaces and the like).
In a first aspect, some embodiments of the present application provide a method of spill-over drift-diffusion prediction, comprising: at least inputting an oil film information file corresponding to a target oil film region and a moving speed of a release point source into an oil spilling model to obtain a first position and a second position of each oil particle in the target oil film region at two adjacent moments; and outputting a prediction result of each oil particle according to the first position, the second position and the coastline vector, wherein the prediction result comprises the position and the state of each oil particle.
Some embodiments of the present application obtain the position of each oil particle at adjacent time by inputting the oil film information file into the oil spill model related to the moving speed of the moving release point source, and then output the prediction result of each oil particle in combination with the coastline vector. According to the method and the device, the prediction of the oil spill condition of the movable release point source can be realized, the accuracy of the prediction result is high, and reliable data support is provided for analyzing the sea surface oil spill condition.
In some embodiments, before the inputting the oil film information file corresponding to the target oil film region into the oil spill model, the method further includes: acquiring contour points of each oil film region in a plurality of oil film regions and initial positions of oil particles except the contour points in each oil film region; and generating an oil film information file corresponding to the contour point of each oil film region and the initial position of each oil particle, wherein the target oil film region is any one of the plurality of oil film regions.
According to the method and the device, the oil film information file is obtained by obtaining the contour points in the oil film areas and the initial positions of the oil particles, and data support is provided for the follow-up obtaining of the prediction results of the oil particles in the oil spill.
In some embodiments, the acquiring the contour point of each oil film region in the plurality of oil film regions and the initial position of each oil particle except for the contour point in each oil film region includes: dividing oil spilling areas in an oil spilling diffusion diagram to obtain a plurality of oil film areas; determining oil particle point resolution based on an oil film diffusion range in the oil spill diffusion map; and determining contour points of the oil film areas and initial positions of the oil particles based on the oil particle point resolution.
According to the embodiments of the application, the outline point and the initial position of each oil film region can be determined by dividing the oil spilling region in the oil spilling diffusion map and referring to the oil particle resolution, so that the accurate positioning of the initial position of the oil particles is realized.
In some embodiments, at least inputting an oil film information file corresponding to a target oil film region and a movement speed of a release point source into an oil spill model to obtain a first position and a second position of each oil particle in the target oil film region at two adjacent moments, where the steps include: acquiring marine environment field data and sea surface wind field data of the target oil film region; inputting the oil film information file, the moving speed, the first moment, the marine environment field data and the sea surface wind field data into the oil spill model to obtain the first position; and inputting the oil film information file, the moving speed, the second moment, the marine environment field data and the sea surface wind field data into the oil spill model to obtain the second position, wherein the first moment and the second moment are the two adjacent moments.
Some embodiments of the present application may obtain accurate locations of oil particles by inputting a plurality of parameters into the oil spill model.
In some embodiments, the oil spill model comprises a first component prediction function and a second component prediction function, wherein the first component prediction function is related to a first component of each oil particle initial position and a first velocity component of the movement velocity of the release point source in the oil film information file, and the second component prediction function is related to a second component of each oil particle initial position and a second velocity component of the movement velocity of the release point source.
According to the method and the device, the first component prediction function and the second component prediction function constructed by releasing the components of the moving speed of the point source in different directions can accurately predict the components of the positions of the subsequent oil particles, and then the positions of the oil particles with higher accuracy are obtained.
In some embodiments, the positions of the oil particles are represented by two-dimensional coordinates, where the at least inputting the oil film information file corresponding to the target oil film region and the moving speed of the release point source into the oil spill model, to obtain the positions of the oil particles in the target oil film region includes: inputting a first component and the first velocity component of the initial position of each oil particle into the first component prediction function, and solving by adopting a second-order precision Euler method to obtain the abscissa of the position of each oil particle; and inputting a second component and the second velocity component of the initial position of each oil particle into the first component prediction function, and solving by adopting a second-order precision Euler method to obtain the ordinate of the position of each oil particle.
According to some embodiments of the application, the corresponding components and the corresponding velocity components of the initial positions of the oil particles are input into the corresponding prediction functions, and then the second-order precision Euler method is used for solving, so that the abscissa and the ordinate of the positions of the oil particles with higher accuracy can be obtained.
In some embodiments, outputting the predicted result of each oil particle according to the first position, the second position and the coastline vector includes: acquiring a position vector corresponding to a first position and a second position of an ith oil particle, wherein the ith oil particle is one of the oil particles; obtaining the state of the ith oil particle by judging whether an intersection point exists between the position vector and the coastline vector; and outputting a prediction result of the ith oil particle according to the state of the ith oil particle.
According to the method and the device, whether the intersection point exists or not is judged through the fact that the i-th oil particle is adjacent to the coastline at two adjacent moments, the state of the oil particle can be confirmed, further the predication result of the i-th oil particle can be obtained, accurate judgment of the state of the oil particle can be achieved, and the predication result with high accuracy is output.
In some embodiments, the outputting the prediction result of the ith oil particle according to the state of the ith oil particle includes: when the state of the ith oil particle is confirmed to be on shore, taking an intersection point of the position vector and the coastline vector as the shore position of the ith oil particle, and outputting the position, the shore position and the state of the ith oil particle at all output moments within a preset time step; and outputting the position and the state of the ith oil particle at all output moments within a preset time step under the condition that the state of the ith oil particle is confirmed to be offshore.
According to some embodiments of the application, through the onshore or offshore state of the ith oil particle and the preset time step, the position and state of the corresponding ith oil particle are output, and the prediction result of the ith oil particle with higher accuracy can be obtained.
In some embodiments, before said outputting the predicted result of the ith oil particle, the method further comprises: confirming that the output time of the prediction result reaches the preset time step; after the outputting the position and the state of the ith oil particles at all output moments, the method further comprises: and generating an oil spill drift diffusion map corresponding to the position and the state of the ith oil particle at all output moments.
According to the method and the device, the results are output when the preset time step is met, and the oil spill drift diffusion diagram is generated, so that accurate simulation and clear display of sea surface oil spill can be achieved.
In some embodiments, the determining whether the intersection exists between the position vector and the coastline vector to obtain the state of the ith oil particle includes: if the position vector and the coastline vector have an intersection point, confirming that the state of the ith oil particle is coasting; and if the position vector and the coastline vector do not have an intersection point, confirming that the state of the ith oil particle is off-shore.
Some embodiments of the application predict whether the state of the ith oil particle is offshore or onshore with high accuracy by whether the position vector and the coastline vector have an intersection point.
In a second aspect, some embodiments of the present application provide an apparatus for spillover drift diffusion prediction, comprising: the position acquisition module is configured to input at least an oil film information file corresponding to a target oil film region and a moving speed of a release point source into the oil spilling model to obtain a first position and a second position of each oil particle in the target oil film region at two adjacent moments; and the result prediction module is configured to output the prediction result of each oil particle according to the first position, the second position and the coastline vector.
In a third aspect, some embodiments of the application provide a computer readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program which, when executed by a processor, performs a method according to any of the embodiments of the first aspect.
In a fourth aspect, some embodiments of the application provide an electronic device comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor is operable to implement a method according to any of the embodiments of the first aspect when executing the program.
In a fifth aspect, some embodiments of the application provide a computer program product comprising a computer program, wherein the computer program, when executed by a processor, is adapted to carry out the method according to any of the embodiments of the first aspect.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of some embodiments of the present application, the drawings that are required to be used in some embodiments of the present application will be briefly described below, it should be understood that the following drawings only illustrate some embodiments of the present application and should not be construed as limiting the scope, and other related drawings may be obtained according to these drawings without inventive effort to those of ordinary skill in the art.
FIG. 1 is a system diagram of a spillover drift diffusion prediction provided by some embodiments of the application;
FIG. 2 is one of the flow charts of the method of spill-drift diffusion prediction provided by some embodiments of the present application;
FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating a relationship between a position vector and a shoreline vector according to some embodiments of the present application;
FIG. 4 is a second flowchart of a method for oil spill drift diffusion prediction according to some embodiments of the present application;
FIG. 5 is a block diagram of an apparatus for oil spill drift diffusion prediction according to some embodiments of the present application;
Fig. 6 is a schematic diagram of an electronic device according to some embodiments of the present application.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions of some embodiments of the present application will be described below with reference to the drawings in some embodiments of the present application.
It should be noted that: like reference numerals and letters denote like items in the following figures, and thus once an item is defined in one figure, no further definition or explanation thereof is necessary in the following figures. Meanwhile, in the description of the present application, the terms "first", "second", and the like are used only to distinguish the description, and are not to be construed as indicating or implying relative importance.
In the related art, from the release form of the spilled oil source, the existing spilled oil model can simulate the instant release of the spilled oil of the fixed point source (such as the instant oil leakage of the oil production platform) and the continuous release of the spilled oil of the fixed point source (such as the continuous oil leakage of the oil production platform). For the instant release condition of the fixed point source spilled oil, the existing spilled oil is fixed in the position of the spilled oil point in the model, all particles participating in the simulation are released at once at the initial moment of the simulation, and new spilled oil particles are not generated in the following simulation process. For example, the instantaneous oil spill of the platform is adopted at sea, the position of the platform is fixed, and the oil is completely released in a short time. For the continuous release condition of the fixed point source, the position of the oil spill point in the model is fixed, and corresponding oil spill particles are released at each time step calculated by the model until the set continuous release time is finished. In addition to the position of the point source, the parameters of release time, number of particles released per time step, and the duration of continuous release must therefore be set in the model to be less than the duration of the simulation. For example, continuous oil spilling of a platform is adopted at sea, the position of the platform is fixed, that is, the oil spilling point is fixed, and the oil leaks outwards continuously and discontinuously within a certain time.
In order to ensure accurate simulation of sea surface oil spill conditions, the existing oil spill forecasting model is researched and found to have the following defects:
1) The oil spill source release modes considered by the existing oil spill prediction model are instantaneous release and continuous release, but are based on fixed point sources, namely the positions of the release point sources are not moved in the simulation, so that the oil spill condition of an offshore oil platform and a submarine oil pipeline is effectively solved. However, continuous discharge of oil substances cannot be accurately simulated for a moving ship at sea (as a specific example of a discharge point source), and the ship has a certain speed and direction of movement at sea, and cannot be regarded as a fixed point.
2) The existing oil spill prediction model can not simulate the oil film diffused on the sea surface and the leaked oil spill at the same time, and needs to simulate separately and independently. This increases the workload and processing time of the forecast for emergency forecast. In reality, when oil spill is found, a large amount of oil leaks into the sea, and meanwhile, the leakage point is still continuously spilled. At this time, if the existing spilled oil on the sea surface and the spilled oil which is leaking are independently simulated, the actual oil film thickness and the actual oil film concentration cannot be accurately reflected.
3) The existing overflow membrane information digitization is based on matlab software, the coordinate positions of the profile lines of the overflow areas are collected, and oil particles are uniformly generated in the profile areas. And the numbers of the extraction points are marked on the lines when the contour lines of the oil spilling areas are extracted, and the numbers can cover the inaccuracy of the extracted position information caused by the contour lines of the oil films in the drawings.
4) The existing state prediction technology for whether the oil particles are on the shore adopts a grid method, a shoreline grid is consistent with a flow field grid, when the oil particles reach land grid points, oil overflows to land, but the accuracy of the shoreline depends on the resolution of a flow field model, and the resolution of the flow field model cannot be very fine near the shore, so that accurate prediction of the state of the oil particles cannot be realized.
In view of this, some embodiments of the present application provide a method for predicting oil spill drift diffusion, which obtains a first position and a second position of each oil particle at two adjacent moments by inputting an oil film information file corresponding to a target oil film region into an oil spill model related to a moving speed of a release point source. Then, the position and state of each oil particle can be outputted through the positional relationship of the first position, the second position and the coastline vector. According to the method and the device, the positions of the oil particles in the target oil film region can be accurately positioned, the states of the oil particles can be accurately judged, the accuracy of sea surface oil spill simulation can be improved, and reliable data are provided for oil spill emergency prediction.
The overall composition of the system for spill-drift diffusion prediction provided by some embodiments of the present application is described below by way of example with reference to fig. 1.
As shown in fig. 1, some embodiments of the present application provide a system of spillover drift diffusion prediction, the system of spillover drift diffusion prediction comprising: a user 100 and a terminal 200. The terminal 200 may acquire an oil spill diffusion map monitored by the satellite remote sensing image, determine the number of oil film areas, the resolution of oil particle points and contour points of the oil spill diffusion map in response to the operation of the user 100, and then generate an oil film information file corresponding to each oil film area. The terminal 200 may take any one of the multiple oil film areas as a target oil film area, and input the corresponding oil film information file and the moving speed of the release point source into an oil spill model which is pre-deployed by the terminal 200, so as to obtain the positions of the oil particles in the target oil film area at different moments. And finally, comparing the position vectors of the first position and the second position at two adjacent moments with the coastline vector, and confirming the output prediction result of each oil particle.
In some embodiments of the present application, the terminal 200 may be a mobile terminal or a non-portable computer terminal, and the present application is not particularly limited herein. In other embodiments of the present application, the oil spill model may be deployed in a corresponding server, and prediction of each oil particle in the water surface oil spill is implemented by the server, so as to obtain a prediction result. The embodiments of the present application are not limited thereto.
In some embodiments of the application, the release point source may be a mobile and powered surface vehicle such as a ship, cruise ship, or aircraft carrier. The water surface may refer to a sea surface, a lake surface, or a river surface, etc. that may be used to supply water to a surface vehicle. The embodiments of the present application are not limited thereto.
The implementation of the oil spill drift diffusion prediction performed by the terminal 200 provided by some embodiments of the present application is described below by way of example in conjunction with fig. 2.
Referring to fig. 2, fig. 2 is a flowchart of a method for predicting oil spill drift diffusion according to some embodiments of the present application, where the method for predicting oil spill drift diffusion includes:
S210, at least inputting an oil film information file corresponding to a target oil film region and a moving speed of a release point source into an oil spill model to obtain a first position and a second position of each oil particle in the target oil film region at two adjacent moments.
For example, in some embodiments of the present application, when the release point source is moving, the position of the spilled oil also changes continuously, so by inputting the moving speed of the release point source and the initial position of the oil particles into the spilled oil model, accurate prediction of the positions of the oil particles in the target oil film region can be achieved.
In some embodiments of the present application, S210 may include: acquiring marine environment field data and sea surface wind field data of the target oil film region; inputting the oil film information file, the moving speed, the first moment, the marine environment field data and the sea surface wind field data into the oil spill model to obtain the first position; and inputting the oil film information file, the moving speed, the second moment, the marine environment field data and the sea surface wind field data into the oil spill model to obtain the second position, wherein the first moment and the second moment are the two adjacent moments.
For example, in some embodiments of the present application, marine environmental field data and sea surface wind field data of the region and time in which the target oil film region is located may also be input into the oil spill model, so as to further improve the accuracy of predicting the position of each oil particle in the target oil film region.
In some embodiments of the present application, before performing S210, the method of spill-over drift-diffusion prediction further comprises:
S201, acquiring contour points of all oil film areas in a plurality of oil film areas and initial positions of all oil particles except the contour points in all oil film areas.
For example, in some embodiments of the present application, the user 100 may sequentially trace points along the outer contour of each divided oil film region with a left mouse button, finish tracing a single oil film region with a right mouse button, and repeat the above tracing steps for a plurality of oil film regions, so that the contour points of each oil film region may be obtained. The terminal 200 may then generate an initial position of the internal oil particles based on the contour points.
In some embodiments of the present application, S201 may include: dividing oil spilling areas in an oil spilling diffusion diagram to obtain a plurality of oil film areas; determining oil particle point resolution based on an oil film diffusion range in the oil spill diffusion map; and determining contour points of the oil film areas and initial positions of the oil particles based on the oil particle point resolution.
For example, in some embodiments of the present application, the current mature means for monitoring sea surface spilled oil is satellite remote sensing image monitoring, and a spilled oil diffusion range map with longitude and latitude information coordinates is obtained through satellite remote sensing inversion (as a specific example of the spilled oil diffusion map). First, a positioning coordinate point in the graph is determined based on the oil spill diffusion range graph, wherein the positioning coordinate point cannot be on the same straight line, and is generally two coordinate points of the lower left corner and the upper right corner of the oil spill diffusion range graph. The selection may be specifically performed according to the actual situation, and the embodiment of the present application is not limited thereto. Secondly, the oil film is divided into proper oil film area numbers and a program is given according to the oil film information displayed by the oil spill diffusion range diagram, so that the coordinate information in the oil film area can be extracted at one time. That is, in the embodiment of the application, the coordinate information of each oil film region can be extracted once only by setting the number of the oil film regions to generate an oil film information file. Then, the user can set the oil particle point resolution (simply referred to as resolution) in the oil spill region in the oil spill diffusion range map. And determining the resolution of oil particle point distribution in an oil film region according to the oil film diffusion range displayed by the oil spill diffusion range diagram. The size of the resolution determines how many oil particles are in each oil film region. A resolution of 0.0005 x 0.0005 represents 2000 x 2000 = 4000000 particles in a1 grid of 1 x 1. Finally, the user 100 may perform a pointing operation in each oil film region to obtain a contour point of each oil film region, determine the number of oil particles in each oil film region based on the resolution, and further obtain an initial position of oil particles corresponding to the number of oil particles in each oil film region.
S202, generating an oil film information file corresponding to contour points of the oil film areas and initial positions of the oil particles, wherein the target oil film area is any one of the oil film areas.
For example, in some embodiments of the present application, the contour points of each oil film region and the initial positions of the internal oil particles are used to generate an oil film information file corresponding to each oil film region. One oil film region corresponds to one oil film information file.
Through the embodiment, the oil film information file corresponding to each oil film region can be obtained by extracting the plurality of oil film regions at one time, so that the problem that the time cost is too high because the plurality of oil film regions are required to be extracted for a plurality of times to obtain the corresponding oil film information file in the prior art can be solved.
In some embodiments of the application, the oil spill model comprises a first component prediction function and a second component prediction function, wherein the first component prediction function is related to a first component of the initial position of each oil particle in the oil film information file and a first velocity component of the moving velocity of the release point source, and the second component prediction function is related to a second component of the initial position of each oil particle and a second velocity component of the moving velocity of the release point source.
To obtain the position of the oil particle with higher accuracy, in some embodiments of the present application, the position of each oil particle is characterized by two-dimensional coordinates, where S210 may include: inputting a first component and the first velocity component of the initial position of each oil particle into the first component prediction function, and solving by adopting a second-order precision Euler method to obtain the abscissa of the position of each oil particle; and inputting a second component and the second velocity component of the initial position of each oil particle into the first component prediction function, and solving by adopting a second-order precision Euler method to obtain the ordinate of the position of each oil particle.
Since the positions of oil particles released at different moments are different for a ship spilled oil whose release point source is movable, it is necessary to consider the movement speed of the ship. Moreover, for a mobile vessel spill its leakage only occurs on the sea surface, so the objective function in the spill model is two-dimensional. For example, in some embodiments of the application, the objective function of the oil spill model includes: a first component prediction function and a second component prediction function. The first component prediction function is related to an east component of the sailing speed of the ship (one specific example of a first speed component of the moving speed as a release point source). The second component prediction function is related to a navigation speed north component of the ship (one specific example of a second speed component of the moving speed as a release point source).
Specifically, the formulas of the first component prediction function x (i, T) and the second component prediction function y (i, T) in the oil spill model are as follows:
Where x (i, T), y (i, T) are the east and north components of the position of the ith oil particle at time T, x 0、y0 is the two components of the initial position of the ith oil particle, u s、vs is the east and north components of the sailing speed of the ship, T ir is the leakage time of the ith oil particle, Δt is the preset time step, and Δx (i, T) and Δy (i, T) are the distances that the ith oil particle moves in the east and north component directions over a preset time step at time T, respectively.
Wherein Δx (i, t) and Δy (i, t) are obtained by the following formula:
Where u and v are the horizontal velocity of the oil particles. u c、vc is the current velocity in the horizontal direction of the location of the oil particles (as a specific example of marine environmental field data), and the current velocity results from the current model, which is also an input to the oil spill model. u a、va represents the wind speed at the sea surface 10 m high at the location of the oil particles (as a specific example of the sea surface wind field data), which is obtained by simulation results of the atmospheric numerical mode and is also an input to the oil spill model, and the oil particles are not directly affected by the sea surface wind when under water, and the effect is not considered. Alpha and beta are wind drift factors and deflection angles, the wind drift factors are usually 1% -6%, the deflection angles are usually 0 DEG to 45 DEG in absolute value, the right deflection is negative in northern hemisphere, and the left deflection is positive in southern hemisphere. u w、vw is the drift velocity of the oil particles due to wave nonlinearity.
For example, in some embodiments of the present application, the higher the accuracy of the solution method for the first component prediction function and the second component prediction function, the more accurate the calculation result and the longer the calculation time, so that the second order accuracy solution method is adopted in the oil spill model in consideration of the problems of calculation accuracy and calculation efficiency. I.e. solved by second order precision euler method.
Specifically, the solution formula of the second-order precision euler method is as follows:
Where x is the position of the ith oil particle, n is a time index, t n =n Δt, a is the distance moved at time n, and b is the distance moved at time n+1.
It should be noted that in other embodiments of the present application, other methods may be used to solve the oil spill model, and embodiments of the present application are not limited thereto.
S220, outputting a prediction result of each oil particle according to the first position, the second position and the coastline vector, wherein the prediction result comprises the position and the state of each oil particle.
For example, in some embodiments of the present application, the predicted outcome of each oil particle may be determined by the positional relationship of the corresponding first and second positions of each oil particle with the coastline vector at two adjacent times. Wherein the selection of the shoreline vector may select a part of the whole shoreline associated with the moving direction or region of the oil particles.
The above-described process is exemplarily set forth below.
In some embodiments of the present application, S220 may include:
S221, obtaining a position vector corresponding to the first position and the second position of the ith oil particle, wherein the ith oil particle is one of the oil particles.
For example, in some embodiments of the present application, any oil particle in the target oil film region is described as an example, and other oil particles may perform the same steps as the i-th oil particle. For example, the initial position of the ith oil particle and the time T are input to the oil spill model, and the first position of the ith oil particle at the time T can be obtained, and similarly the second position of the ith oil particle at the adjacent time t+1 can be obtained.
S222, judging whether an intersection point exists between the position vector and the coastline vector, and obtaining the state of the ith oil particle.
In some embodiments of the present application, S220 may include: if the position vector and the coastline vector have an intersection point, confirming that the state of the ith oil particle is coasting; and if the position vector and the coastline vector do not have an intersection point, confirming that the state of the ith oil particle is off-shore.
For example, in some embodiments of the present application, when there is an intersection between a location line at two adjacent times of an ith oil particle and a coastline, it may be predicted that the ith oil particle will eventually land, otherwise the ith oil particle continues to drift at the sea surface, i.e., is in an offshore state.
Specifically, in some embodiments of the present application, the state of the oil particles is determined by a vector cross product. For example, a schematic diagram of the relationship between the position vector and the coastline vector provided in fig. 3 is taken as an example to explain how the state of the i-th oil particle is determined. In fig. 3, p3 is the position of the ith oil particle at time T, p4 is the position of the ith oil particle at time t+1, and the vector formed by p3 and p4 is compared with the vector formed by each segment of coastline (for example, the coastline vector is p1p 2) to determine whether there is an intersection. The specific method comprises the following steps:
(1) If the coastline vectors corresponding to points p1 and p2 satisfy the following formula, it is determined that p1 and p2 are distributed on both sides of position vector p3 p 4:
(2) If the position vectors corresponding to the points p3 and p4 satisfy the following formula, it is determined that the points p3 and p4 are distributed on both sides of the coastline p 1p 2:
s223, outputting a prediction result of the ith oil particle according to the state of the ith oil particle.
In some embodiments of the present application, S223 may include: and under the condition that the state of the ith oil particle is confirmed to be the landing, taking the intersection point of the position vector and the coastline vector as the landing position of the ith oil particle, and outputting the position, the landing position and the state of the ith oil particle at all output moments within a preset time step. And outputting the position and the state of the ith oil particle at all output moments within a preset time step under the condition that the state of the ith oil particle is confirmed to be offshore.
For example, in some embodiments of the present application, as shown in fig. 3, by confirming that the state of the ith oil particle at the future time t+1st is the landing, the intersection of p3p4 and p1p2 is taken as the landing position p of the ith oil particle. And finally outputting all the positions of the ith oil particles in the preset time step, wherein the state of the ith oil particles at the last moment of the preset time step is landed, and the landed position is p. If the ith oil particle is always in an offshore state within the preset time step, outputting all positions of the ith oil particle within the preset time step, and outputting the state of the ith oil particle at the last moment of the preset time step as the offshore state.
Specifically, the coordinate of p is calculated as follows:
in some embodiments of the present application, S223 may include: and confirming that the output time of the prediction result reaches the preset time step.
For example, in some embodiments of the present application, the output of the prediction result may be periodically output in a predetermined time step. The preset time step can be set according to actual conditions. For example, the preset time step is 10s, the position and the state of the i-th oil particle are updated every 1s, and finally, one preset time step can output the 10 th position of the i-th oil particle and the last second state in 10 s. If the positions corresponding to the 3 rd and 4 th s in the 10s are the first position and the second position, the intersection point between the position vector and the coastline vector is confirmed by judging, namely, the ith oil particle is confirmed to land between the 3 rd and 4 th s. After the ith oil particle is landed, the ith oil particle is not calculated any more in the process of 5s to 10s because the ith oil particle is considered to be "dead" after landing and no longer participates in the calculation. The final result at 10s is that the position, the landing position and the state of the 10s of the i-th oil particle are landing. It can be understood that the preset time step is 10s, and the prediction result of the ith oil particle is output every 10s until the ith oil particle approaches the shore.
In some embodiments of the present application, S223 may further include: and generating an oil spill drift diffusion map corresponding to the position and the state of the ith oil particle at all output moments.
For example, in some embodiments of the present application, a preset time step may be taken as an example, an oil spill-over diffusion chart of the ith oil particle at all output moments during the preset time step may be generated, and the state of the ith oil particle may be marked in the oil spill-over diffusion chart. The drift track of the ith oil particle can be clearly simulated through the positions of the ith oil particle in the oil spilling drift diffusion diagram under all output moments. When an oil spill event is encountered, the latest oil film region forecast field data can be called at any time.
The following is an exemplary description of a specific procedure for spill drift diffusion prediction provided by some embodiments of the present application in connection with fig. 4.
Referring to fig. 4, fig. 4 is a flowchart illustrating a method for predicting oil spill drift diffusion according to some embodiments of the present application. The drift of the i-th oil particle of an oil film region is predicted in a preset time step.
The above-described process is exemplarily set forth below.
S410, confirming that a large amount of oil films exist on the sea surface and the remote sensing means acquire an oil spill diffusion map.
S420, determining an oil film region and oil particle resolution in the oil spill diffusion map, and generating an oil film information file corresponding to the oil film region.
S430, determining that the release point source is the continuous release moving point source oil spill, and acquiring the position and the moving speed of the release point source.
S440, selecting marine environment field and sea surface wind field data of the region and time corresponding to the current release point source oil spill event.
S450, inputting the oil film information file, the moment, the position of the release point source, the moving speed, the marine environment field and the sea surface wind field data into the oil spill model, and obtaining the position of the ith oil particle at each moment.
S460, comparing the positions of the ith oil particles at two adjacent moments with the coastline vector to obtain the states of the ith oil particles at all the moments within the preset time step.
S470, judging whether the state of the ith oil particle is on shore, if so, executing S480, otherwise executing S490.
And S480, outputting the position, the shore position and the state of the ith oil particle at all output moments in the preset time step when the output time reaches the preset time step, and executing S491.
And S490, outputting the positions and states of the ith oil particles at all output moments in the preset time step when the output time reaches the preset time step.
S491, generating an oil spill drift diffusion map of the ith oil particle under a preset time step.
It should be noted that, the specific implementation process of S410 to S491 may refer to the method embodiment provided in fig. 2, and detailed descriptions thereof are omitted here for avoiding repetition.
From the above description of some embodiments of the application, the application has the following advantages:
1) According to the application, the equation of the original oil spill model, which only pays attention to the movement speed of the oil particles, is converted into the equation considering the movement distance of the oil particles, and the initial position information of the oil particles is creatively considered in the equation, and the movement speed of the release point source is added, so that the oil spill model can simulate the release point source oil spill of the ship in the running process, namely the continuous oil spill condition of the movement point source. The accuracy of the movable release point source oil spill simulation can be improved through the technology, and the method has originality in the field of offshore oil spill simulation.
2) According to the method, the oil spill information of the oil spill diffusion map is digitalized based on matlab software, so that the oil spill model can quickly identify the oil film information file, a plurality of oil spill areas (namely oil film areas) in one map can be extracted at one time, the extraction process is clearer, and the result is more accurate.
(3) The application adopts the vector cross product to judge whether the oil particles are in the shore or not, and judges whether the oil particles are in the shore or not according to the relation between the line segment formed by connecting the current positions of the oil particles with the next moment and the coastline segment, so that the oil particle shore can be more accurately described, and the coordinate point of the shore position can be accurately obtained.
Referring to fig. 5, fig. 5 is a block diagram illustrating an apparatus for predicting oil spill drift diffusion according to some embodiments of the present application. It should be understood that the apparatus for predicting oil spill-over diffusion corresponds to the above-described method embodiments, and is capable of performing the steps involved in the above-described method embodiments, and specific functions of the apparatus for predicting oil spill-over diffusion may be referred to the above description, and detailed descriptions thereof are omitted herein as appropriate to avoid redundancy.
The apparatus of fig. 5 for spill-drift-diffusion prediction comprises at least one software functional module capable of being stored in a memory in the form of software or firmware or solidified in the apparatus for spill-drift-diffusion prediction, the apparatus for spill-drift-diffusion prediction comprising: the position obtaining module 510 is configured to input at least an oil film information file corresponding to a target oil film region and a movement speed of a release point source into an oil spill model, so as to obtain a first position and a second position of each oil particle in the target oil film region at two adjacent moments; the result prediction module 520 is configured to output a prediction result of each oil particle according to the first position, the second position and the coastline vector.
In some embodiments of the present application, the position obtaining module 510 is configured to obtain contour points of each of a plurality of oil film regions and initial positions of oil particles in each of the oil film regions except for the contour points; and generating an oil film information file corresponding to the contour point of each oil film region and the initial position of each oil particle, wherein the target oil film region is any one of the plurality of oil film regions.
In some embodiments of the present application, the location obtaining module 510 is configured to divide the oil spilling area in the oil spilling map, so as to obtain the plurality of oil film areas; determining oil particle point resolution based on an oil film diffusion range in the oil spill diffusion map; and determining contour points of the oil film areas and initial positions of the oil particles based on the oil particle point resolution.
In some embodiments of the present application, the location acquisition module 510 is configured to acquire marine environmental field data and sea surface wind field data where the target oil film region is located; inputting the oil film information file, the moving speed, the first moment, the marine environment field data and the sea surface wind field data into the oil spill model to obtain the first position; and inputting the oil film information file, the moving speed, the second moment, the marine environment field data and the sea surface wind field data into the oil spill model to obtain the second position, wherein the first moment and the second moment are the two adjacent moments.
In some embodiments of the application, the oil spill model comprises a first component prediction function and a second component prediction function, wherein the first component prediction function is related to a first component of the initial position of each oil particle in the oil film information file and a first velocity component of the moving velocity of the release point source, and the second component prediction function is related to a second component of the initial position of each oil particle and a second velocity component of the moving velocity of the release point source.
In some embodiments of the present application, the position of each oil particle is characterized by two-dimensional coordinates, where the position obtaining module 510 is configured to input the first component of the initial position of each oil particle and the first velocity component into the first component prediction function, and solve by using a second-order precision euler method to obtain an abscissa of the position of each oil particle; and inputting the second component and the second velocity component of the initial position of each oil particle into the second component prediction function, and solving by adopting a second-order precision Euler method to obtain the ordinate of the position of each oil particle.
In some embodiments of the present application, the result prediction module 520 is configured to obtain a position vector corresponding to a first position and a second position of an i-th oil particle, where the i-th oil particle is one of the oil particles; obtaining the state of the ith oil particle by judging whether an intersection point exists between the position vector and the coastline vector; and outputting a prediction result of the ith oil particle according to the state of the ith oil particle.
In some embodiments of the present application, the result prediction module 520 is configured to take an intersection point of the position vector and the coastline vector as a landing position of the ith oil particle and output the position, the landing position and the state of the ith oil particle at all output moments within a preset time step, in a case where the state of the ith oil particle is confirmed to be landing; and outputting the position and the state of the ith oil particle at all output moments within a preset time step under the condition that the state of the ith oil particle is confirmed to be offshore.
In some embodiments of the present application, the result prediction module 520 is configured to confirm that the output time of the prediction result reaches the preset time step.
In some embodiments of the application, the result prediction module 520 is configured to generate an oil spill-over diffusion map corresponding to the position and the state of the ith oil particle at all output moments.
In some embodiments of the present application, the result prediction module 520 is configured to confirm that the state of the i-th oil particle is ashore if the position vector has an intersection with a coastline vector; and if the position vector and the coastline vector do not have an intersection point, confirming that the state of the ith oil particle is off-shore.
Some embodiments of the present application also provide a computer readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program which, when executed by a processor, performs the operations of the method according to any of the above-described methods provided by the above-described embodiments.
Some embodiments of the present application also provide a computer program product, where the computer program product includes a computer program, where the computer program when executed by a processor may implement operations of a method corresponding to any of the above embodiments of the above method provided by the above embodiments.
As shown in fig. 6, some embodiments of the present application provide an electronic device 600, the electronic device 600 comprising: memory 610, processor 620, and a computer program stored on memory 610 and executable on processor 620, wherein processor 620 may implement a method as in any of the embodiments described above when reading a program from memory 610 and executing the program via bus 630.
The processor 620 may process the digital signals and may include various computing structures. Such as a complex instruction set computer architecture, a reduced instruction set computer architecture, or an architecture that implements a combination of instruction sets. In some examples, the processor 620 may be a microprocessor.
Memory 610 may be used for storing instructions to be executed by processor 620 or data related to execution of the instructions. Such instructions and/or data may include code to implement some or all of the functions of one or more of the modules described in embodiments of the present application. The processor 620 of the disclosed embodiments may be configured to execute instructions in the memory 610 to implement the methods shown above. Memory 610 includes dynamic random access memory, static random access memory, flash memory, optical memory, or other memory known to those skilled in the art.
The above description is only an example of the present application and is not intended to limit the scope of the present application, and various modifications and variations will be apparent to those skilled in the art. Any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement, etc. made within the spirit and principle of the present application should be included in the protection scope of the present application. It should be noted that: like reference numerals and letters denote like items in the following figures, and thus once an item is defined in one figure, no further definition or explanation thereof is necessary in the following figures.
The foregoing is merely illustrative of the present application, and the present application is not limited thereto, and any person skilled in the art will readily recognize that variations or substitutions are within the scope of the present application. Therefore, the protection scope of the present application shall be subject to the protection scope of the claims.
It is noted that relational terms such as first and second, and the like are used solely to distinguish one entity or action from another entity or action without necessarily requiring or implying any actual such relationship or order between such entities or actions. Moreover, the terms "comprises," "comprising," or any other variation thereof, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises a list of elements does not include only those elements but may include other elements not expressly listed or inherent to such process, method, article, or apparatus. Without further limitation, an element defined by the phrase "comprising one … …" does not exclude the presence of other like elements in a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises the element.

Claims (9)

1. A method of spill drift diffusion prediction, comprising:
At least inputting an oil film information file corresponding to a target oil film region and a moving speed of a release point source into an oil spilling model to obtain a first position and a second position of each oil particle in the target oil film region at two adjacent moments; the target oil film region is any one of a plurality of oil film regions, and the plurality of oil film regions are obtained by extracting coordinate information of each oil film region at one time in an oil spill diffusion chart according to the number of the preset oil film regions; the oil spill diffusion map is acquired by collecting an oil film existing on the water surface;
Outputting a prediction result of each oil particle according to the first position, the second position and the coastline vector, wherein the prediction result comprises the position and the state of each oil particle;
before the oil film information file corresponding to the target oil film region is input to the oil spill model, the method further comprises the following steps:
Acquiring contour points of each oil film region in a plurality of oil film regions and initial positions of oil particles except the contour points in each oil film region; and generating an oil film information file corresponding to the contour point of each oil film region and the initial position of each oil particle.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein said obtaining contour points for each of a plurality of oil film regions and initial positions for each of said oil particles in each of said oil film regions other than said contour points comprises:
dividing oil spilling areas in an oil spilling diffusion diagram to obtain a plurality of oil film areas;
determining oil particle point resolution based on an oil film diffusion range in the oil spill diffusion map;
and determining contour points of the oil film areas and initial positions of the oil particles based on the oil particle point resolution.
3. The method of any one of claims 1-2, wherein the inputting at least the oil film information file corresponding to the target oil film region and the moving speed of the release point source into the oil spill model to obtain the first position and the second position of each oil particle in the target oil film region at two adjacent moments comprises:
acquiring marine environment field data and sea surface wind field data of the target oil film region;
inputting the oil film information file, the moving speed, the first moment, the marine environment field data and the sea surface wind field data into the oil spill model to obtain the first position;
And inputting the oil film information file, the moving speed, the second moment, the marine environment field data and the sea surface wind field data into the oil spill model to obtain the second position, wherein the first moment and the second moment are the two adjacent moments.
4. The method of any of claims 1-2, wherein the oil spill model comprises a first component prediction function and a second component prediction function, wherein the first component prediction function is related to a first component of each oil particle initial position and a first velocity component of the release point source's velocity of movement in the oil film information file, and the second component prediction function is related to a second component of each oil particle initial position and a second velocity component of the release point source's velocity of movement.
5. The method of claim 4, wherein the location of each oil particle is characterized by two-dimensional coordinates, wherein the inputting at least the oil film information file corresponding to the target oil film region and the moving speed of the release point source into the oil spill model to obtain the location of each oil particle in the target oil film region comprises:
Inputting a first component and the first velocity component of the initial position of each oil particle into the first component prediction function, and solving by adopting a second-order precision Euler method to obtain the abscissa of the position of each oil particle;
And inputting the second component and the second velocity component of the initial position of each oil particle into the second component prediction function, and solving by adopting a second-order precision Euler method to obtain the ordinate of the position of each oil particle.
6. The method of any of claims 1-2, wherein outputting the predicted result for each oil particle based on the first location, the second location, and a shoreline vector comprises:
Acquiring a position vector corresponding to a first position and a second position of an ith oil particle, wherein the ith oil particle is one of the oil particles;
Obtaining the state of the ith oil particle by judging whether an intersection point exists between the position vector and the coastline vector;
and outputting a prediction result of the ith oil particle according to the state of the ith oil particle.
7. The method of claim 6, wherein,
The step of obtaining the state of the ith oil particle by judging whether the intersection point exists between the position vector and the coastline vector comprises the following steps:
if the position vector and the coastline vector have an intersection point, confirming that the state of the ith oil particle is coasting; if the position vector and the coastline vector do not have an intersection point, confirming that the state of the ith oil particle is off-shore;
The outputting the predicted result of the ith oil particle according to the state of the ith oil particle comprises:
When the state of the ith oil particle is confirmed to be on shore, taking an intersection point of the position vector and the coastline vector as the shore position of the ith oil particle, and outputting the position, the shore position and the state of the ith oil particle at all output moments within a preset time step;
And outputting the position and the state of the ith oil particle at all output moments within a preset time step under the condition that the state of the ith oil particle is confirmed to be offshore.
8. The method of claim 7, wherein prior to said outputting the predicted result of the ith oil particle, the method further comprises:
confirming that the output time of the prediction result reaches the preset time step;
After the outputting the position and the state of the ith oil particles at all output moments, the method further comprises:
and generating an oil spill drift diffusion map corresponding to the position and the state of the ith oil particle at all output moments.
9. An apparatus for spill drift diffusion prediction, comprising:
The position acquisition module is configured to input at least an oil film information file corresponding to a target oil film region and a moving speed of a release point source into the oil spilling model to obtain a first position and a second position of each oil particle in the target oil film region at two adjacent moments; the target oil film region is any one of a plurality of oil film regions, and the plurality of oil film regions are obtained by extracting coordinate information of each oil film region at one time in an oil spill diffusion chart according to the number of the preset oil film regions; the oil spill diffusion map is acquired by collecting an oil film existing on the water surface;
a result prediction module configured to output a prediction result of each oil particle according to the first position, the second position, and a coastline vector;
The location acquisition module is configured to:
Acquiring contour points of each oil film region in a plurality of oil film regions and initial positions of oil particles except the contour points in each oil film region; and generating an oil film information file corresponding to the contour point of each oil film region and the initial position of each oil particle.
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