CN116307705A - Power distribution network line section fault risk evaluation method, device and storage medium - Google Patents
Power distribution network line section fault risk evaluation method, device and storage medium Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to the technical field of power system risk analysis, and discloses a power distribution network line section fault risk evaluation method, a device and a storage medium. The method comprises the steps of obtaining operation data of a target feeder line from the time of operation and fault influence data of a target line section of the target feeder line, and calculating the fault probability of the target feeder line according to accumulated fault times and accumulated operation days in the operation data to obtain the overall fault probability of the target; calculating the fault probability of the corresponding target road section according to the overall fault probability of the target to obtain the fault probability of the target segment; calculating fault consequence influence values of corresponding target road sections according to the number of medium-low voltage users and the last year data values of all loads in the fault influence data; and calculating the fault risk value of the corresponding target road section according to the target segment fault probability and the fault result influence value. According to the invention, fault risk evaluation is refined to the line section, and operators can be effectively instructed to conduct distribution network automatic switch distribution pointedly.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of power system risk analysis, in particular to a power distribution network line section fault risk evaluation method, a device and a storage medium.
Background
With the rapid growth of the power distribution network scale and the large-scale application of the distribution network automatic switch, the fault handling and coping capacity of the power distribution network are greatly improved. However, a dead zone of fault isolation still exists in part of the distribution network line section, so that the fault post-processing time is long, the influence is wide, a fault risk evaluation means aiming at the distribution network line section is required, and an operator is instructed to conduct distribution network automatic switch distribution in a targeted manner so as to prevent the fault risk evaluation means.
The current power distribution network line risk evaluation scheme is mainly used for evaluating fault risks of the whole line, fault risks of all line sections are difficult to point out when the line sections are not refined, and therefore operators cannot be effectively instructed to conduct distribution network automatic switch distribution.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a method, a device and a storage medium for evaluating the fault risk of a distribution network line section, which solve the technical problem that the existing distribution network line risk evaluation scheme does not refine the fault risk evaluation to the line section, so that operators cannot be effectively instructed to conduct distribution network automatic switch distribution.
The first aspect of the invention provides a power distribution network line section fault risk evaluation method, which comprises the following steps:
acquiring operation data of a target feeder line from the time of operation and fault influence data of a target line section of the target feeder line; the operation data comprise accumulated fault times and accumulated operation days, and the fault influence data comprise the number of medium-low voltage users and the last year data value of all loads between the downstream of a target line section and the automatic switch of the next distribution network;
calculating the fault probability of the target feeder line according to the accumulated fault times and the accumulated operation days to obtain the target overall fault probability;
calculating the fault probability of the corresponding target road section according to the target overall fault probability to obtain the target segment fault probability;
calculating fault consequence influence values of corresponding target road sections according to the number of medium-low voltage users and the last year data values of all loads;
and calculating the fault risk value of the corresponding target road section according to the target segment fault probability and the fault result influence value.
According to one implementation manner of the first aspect of the present invention, the accumulated operation days carry time information of daily operation, and the calculating the failure probability of the target feeder according to the accumulated failure times and the accumulated operation days, to obtain a target overall failure probability, includes:
calculating the number of days of operation of the target feeder line i in the current year according to the time information of operation every day;
calculating the fault probability of the target feeder line as a target overall fault probability according to the following formula:
wherein P is i For the failure probability of target feeder i, n i For the accumulated failure times m of the target feeder line i since the operation i For the accumulated running days since the target feeder i was put into operation, M i The current year of the target feeder i is the number of days operated, M is the total number of natural days in the current year.
According to one implementation manner of the first aspect of the present invention, the calculating the fault probability of the corresponding target road segment according to the target overall fault probability to obtain the target segment fault probability includes:
determining a fault probability duty cycle of the target line segment in the target feeder;
and calculating the product of the fault probability duty ratio and the target overall fault probability as the fault probability of the corresponding target road section to obtain the target segment fault probability.
According to one implementation manner of the first aspect of the present invention, the determining a fault probability ratio of the target line segment in the target feeder includes:
and calculating the line length ratio of the target line section to the target feeder line, and taking the obtained ratio result as the fault probability duty ratio of the corresponding target line section in the target feeder line.
According to one implementation manner of the first aspect of the present invention, the calculating the fault consequence influence value of the corresponding target road segment according to the last year data value of the medium-low voltage user number and all loads includes:
calculating target quantile values of last year data values of all loads;
and taking the product of the calculated target index value and the medium-low voltage user number as a fault consequence influence value of the corresponding target road section.
According to one implementation manner of the first aspect of the present invention, the calculating the target quantile value of the last year data value of all loads includes:
and calculating 95% quantile values of the last year data values of all the loads as target quantile values.
According to an implementation manner of the first aspect of the present invention, the calculating, according to the target segment fault probability and the fault consequence influence value, a fault risk value of a corresponding target line segment includes:
and calculating the product of the target segment fault probability and the fault consequence influence value as a fault risk value of the corresponding target line section.
A second aspect of the present invention provides a power distribution network line section fault risk evaluation device, including:
the acquisition module is used for acquiring operation data of a target feeder line from the time of operation and fault influence data of a target line section of the target feeder line; the operation data comprise accumulated fault times and accumulated operation days, and the fault influence data comprise the number of medium-low voltage users and the last year data value of all loads between the downstream of a target line section and the automatic switch of the next distribution network;
the first calculation module is used for calculating the fault probability of the target feeder line according to the accumulated fault times and the accumulated operation days to obtain the target overall fault probability;
the second calculation module is used for calculating the fault probability of the corresponding target road section according to the target overall fault probability to obtain the target segment fault probability;
the third calculation module is used for calculating fault consequence influence values of corresponding target road sections according to the number of medium-low voltage users and the last year data values of all loads;
and the fourth calculation module is used for calculating the fault risk value of the corresponding target road section according to the target segment fault probability and the fault result influence value.
According to one implementation manner of the second aspect of the present invention, the accumulated operation days carry time information of daily operation, and the first calculation module includes:
a first calculating unit, configured to calculate the number of days of operation in the current year of the target feeder i according to the time information of operation every day;
a second calculation unit, configured to calculate a failure probability of the target feeder line as a target overall failure probability according to the following formula:
wherein P is i For the failure probability of target feeder i, n i For the accumulated failure times m of the target feeder line i since the operation i For the accumulated running days since the target feeder i was put into operation, M i The current year of the target feeder i is the number of days operated, M is the total number of natural days in the current year.
According to one manner in which the second aspect of the present invention can be implemented, the second computing module includes:
a determining unit for determining a failure probability duty ratio of the target link section in the target feeder;
and the third calculation unit is used for calculating the product of the fault probability duty ratio and the target overall fault probability as the fault probability of the corresponding target road section to obtain the target segment fault probability.
According to one possible implementation manner of the second aspect of the present invention, the determining unit is specifically configured to:
and calculating the line length ratio of the target line section to the target feeder line, and taking the obtained ratio result as the fault probability duty ratio of the corresponding target line section in the target feeder line.
According to one manner in which the second aspect of the present invention can be implemented, the third computing module includes:
a fourth calculation unit for calculating a target score of the last year data values of all the loads;
and the fifth calculation unit is used for calculating the product of the obtained target quantile value and the medium-low voltage user number to be used as a fault result influence value of the corresponding target road section.
According to one possible implementation manner of the second aspect of the present invention, the fourth computing unit is specifically configured to include:
and calculating 95% quantile values of the last year data values of all the loads as target quantile values.
According to one manner in which the second aspect of the present invention can be implemented, the fourth computing module includes:
and a sixth calculation unit, configured to calculate, as a failure risk value of the corresponding target road segment, a product of the target segment failure probability and the failure outcome influence value.
A third aspect of the present invention provides a power distribution network line segment fault risk evaluation device, including:
a memory for storing instructions; the instructions are used for realizing the power distribution network line section fault risk evaluation method in a mode which can be realized according to any one of the above;
and the processor is used for executing the instructions in the memory.
A fourth aspect of the present invention is a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which when executed by a processor implements the power distribution network line segment failure risk assessment method according to any one of the modes that can be implemented as described above.
From the above technical scheme, the invention has the following advantages:
the method comprises the steps of acquiring operation data of a target feeder line from the time of operation and fault influence data of a target line section of the target feeder line, wherein the operation data comprise accumulated fault times and accumulated operation days, and the fault influence data comprise the number of medium-low voltage users and the last year data value of all loads between the downstream of the target line section and an automatic switch of the next distribution network; calculating the fault probability of a target feeder line according to the accumulated fault times and the accumulated operation days, and calculating the fault probability of a corresponding target line section according to the obtained target overall fault probability to obtain the target segment fault probability; calculating fault consequence influence values of corresponding target road sections according to the number of medium-low voltage users and the last year data values of all loads; calculating fault risk values of corresponding target road sections according to the target segment fault probability and the fault result influence values; according to the invention, fault risk evaluation is refined to the line sections, and risk evaluation of each line section of the power distribution network is realized, so that operators can be effectively instructed to conduct distribution network automatic switch distribution points in a targeted manner, and distribution network fault processing and isolation capability is improved.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the invention or the technical solutions of the prior art, the drawings which are used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described, it being obvious that the drawings in the description below are only some embodiments of the invention, and that other drawings can be obtained from these drawings without inventive faculty for a person skilled in the art.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a power distribution network line segment fault risk assessment method according to an alternative embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a block diagram of structural connection of a fault risk evaluation device for a power distribution network line segment according to an alternative embodiment of the present invention.
Reference numerals:
1-an acquisition module; 2-a first computing module; 3-a second calculation module; 4-a third calculation module; 5-fourth calculation module.
Detailed Description
The embodiment of the invention provides a method, a device and a storage medium for evaluating the fault risk of a distribution network line section, which are used for solving the technical problem that the existing distribution network line risk evaluation scheme does not refine the fault risk evaluation to the line section, so that operators cannot be effectively instructed to conduct distribution network automatic switch distribution points in a targeted manner.
In order to make the objects, features and advantages of the present invention more comprehensible, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention are described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings, and it is apparent that the embodiments described below are only some embodiments of the present invention, but not all embodiments of the present invention. All other embodiments, which can be made by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the invention without making any inventive effort, are intended to be within the scope of the invention.
The invention provides a power distribution network line section fault risk evaluation method.
Referring to fig. 1, fig. 1 shows a flowchart of a power distribution network line segment fault risk evaluation method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
The power distribution network line section fault risk evaluation method provided by the embodiment of the invention comprises the steps S1-S5.
Step S1, acquiring operation data of a target feeder line from the time of operation and fault influence data of a target line section of the target feeder line; the operation data comprise accumulated fault times and accumulated operation days, and the fault influence data comprise the number of medium-low voltage users and the last year data value of all loads between the downstream of a target line section and the automatic switch of the next distribution network.
The distribution network automatic switch can avoid the problems of line burnout, device breakdown and the like caused by overload in the distribution network power supply process, so that the distribution network automatic switch is generally deployed in a feeder line to realize the functions of rapid fault isolation and equipment protection in the prior art. In this embodiment, when fault impact data is obtained, the number of medium-low voltage users between the downstream of the line section and the automation switch of the next distribution network and the last year data value of all loads between the downstream of the line section and the automation switch of the next distribution network may be manually collected and stored in a device executing the method or other devices/platforms/apparatuses in a data uploading manner, so that the device executing the method may obtain the fault impact data in a manner of extracting from a database or from other devices/platforms/apparatuses. Similarly, the operation data may be obtained based on the same data acquisition method as the failure influence data.
The target line section is a feeder line section between two towers or cable taps, and the target feeder line can be divided according to actual conditions, so that the target line section is determined.
And S2, calculating the fault probability of the target feeder line according to the accumulated fault times and the accumulated operation days to obtain the target overall fault probability.
In this embodiment, the fault probability of the target feeder line is calculated according to the accumulated fault times and the accumulated operation days, so that a relatively objective target overall fault probability can be obtained.
In one implementation manner, the calculating the fault probability of the target feeder line according to the accumulated fault times and the accumulated operation days to obtain a target overall fault probability includes:
and taking the ratio of the accumulated fault times to the accumulated operation days as the fault probability of the corresponding target feeder line to obtain the target overall fault probability.
In another implementation manner, the accumulated operation days carry time information of daily operation, and the calculating the fault probability of the target feeder line according to the accumulated fault times and the accumulated operation days to obtain a target overall fault probability includes:
calculating the number of days of operation of the target feeder line i in the current year according to the time information of operation every day;
calculating the fault probability of the target feeder line as a target overall fault probability according to the following formula:
wherein P is i For the failure probability of target feeder i, n i For the accumulated failure times m of the target feeder line i since the operation i For the accumulated running days since the target feeder i was put into operation, M i The current year of the target feeder i is the number of days operated, M is the total number of natural days in the current year.
The number of the operation days in the same year is the number of the operation days in the same year when the fault probability of the target feeder is calculated, and the total number of the natural days in the same year is the total number of the natural days in the same year when the fault probability of the target feeder is calculated.
In this embodiment, a specific calculation formula of the target overall fault probability is provided, and the specific calculation formula considers the running time length in the current year in addition to the fault frequency parameter, so that the accuracy of the fault probability calculation can be improved.
It should be noted that, the specific calculation formula of the target overall fault probability may be adjusted to obtain other embodiments for calculating the fault probability of the target feeder according to the accumulated fault times and the accumulated operation days. For example, the number of days of operation in the present year in the calculation formula may be adjusted to be the number of cumulative days of operation since the operation, the total number of natural days in the present year in the calculation formula may be adjusted to be the total number of cumulative natural days since the operation, and m i And (5) removing.
And step S3, calculating the fault probability of the corresponding target road section according to the target overall fault probability to obtain the target segment fault probability.
In one implementation manner, the calculating the fault probability of the corresponding target road segment according to the target overall fault probability to obtain the target segment fault probability includes:
determining a fault probability duty cycle of the target line segment in the target feeder;
and calculating the product of the fault probability duty ratio and the target overall fault probability as the fault probability of the corresponding target road section to obtain the target segment fault probability.
In the embodiment, the target segment fault probability is calculated based on the fault probability duty ratio and the target overall fault probability, and the method is simple and convenient.
In one implementation, the determining the probability of failure of the target link in the target feeder comprises:
and calculating the line length ratio of the target line section to the target feeder line, and taking the obtained ratio result as the fault probability duty ratio of the corresponding target line section in the target feeder line.
The specific calculation formula is as follows:
wherein P is mn For the fault probability of line segment mn, l mn For the line length of the line section mn, l i For line sectionsThe line length of the feeder line where mn is located, namely the target feeder line i, P i The fault probability of the feeder line where the line section mn is located.
In the embodiment, the ratio of the line length of the target line section to the line length of the target feeder is used as the fault probability ratio of the corresponding target line section in the target feeder, so that the method is simple and convenient, and the calculation result of the fault probability of the target segment can truly reflect the fault probability of the line section.
In another implementation manner, the determining the fault probability ratio of the target line segment in the target feeder includes:
acquiring the fault probability duty ratio of the target line section in the target feeder line from a preset fault probability duty ratio list; and the fault probability duty ratio list stores the mapping relation between the wire road sections and the fault probability duty ratio.
As a specific embodiment, the probability of failure duty ratio of each target road segment may be determined based on a subjective and/or objective evaluation method, and the probability of failure duty ratio list may be constructed according to the determined value.
In yet another implementation manner, the determining the fault probability ratio of the target line segment in the target feeder includes:
and acquiring the accumulated failure times of the target line section, and further taking the ratio of the accumulated failure times of the target line section and the located target feeder line as the failure probability duty ratio of the corresponding target line section in the located target feeder line.
And S4, calculating fault consequence influence values of the corresponding target road sections according to the number of medium-low voltage users and the last year data values of all loads.
In one implementation manner, the calculating the fault consequence influence value of the corresponding target road section according to the number of medium-low voltage users and the last year data value of all loads includes:
calculating target quantile values of last year data values of all loads;
and taking the product of the calculated target index value and the medium-low voltage user number as a fault consequence influence value of the corresponding target road section.
According to the present embodiment, the calculation formula of the fault result influence value is as follows:
E mn ＝W mn ×H mn
wherein E is mn For fault consequence influence value, W, of line section mn mn Target split value for last year data value of all loads between downstream of line section mn and next distribution network automation switch, H mn And the number of medium-low voltage users between the downstream of the line section mn and the automatic switch of the next distribution network is calculated.
The target quantile value may be set according to the actual situation. As an embodiment, a 95% quantile value of the last year data value of all the loads may be calculated as the target quantile value.
And S5, calculating fault risk values of corresponding target road segments according to the target segment fault probability and the fault result influence value.
In one implementation manner, the calculating the fault risk value of the corresponding target road segment according to the target segment fault probability and the fault result influence value includes:
and calculating the product of the target segment fault probability and the fault consequence influence value as a fault risk value of the corresponding target line section.
According to the present embodiment, the calculation formula of the failure risk value is as follows:
Dmn＝Pmn×Emn
wherein D is mn For the fault risk value of line segment mn, E mn For fault consequence influence value, P, of line section mn mn Is the fault probability of the line segment mn.
In this embodiment, the fault risk value of the corresponding target road section is calculated according to the target segment fault probability and the fault result influence value, so as to implement objective and accurate fault risk value calculation. The operators can properly increase the deployment of the distribution network automatic switch aiming at the feeder line section with higher fault risk value, thereby improving the fault processing and isolation capacity of the distribution network automatic switch.
The invention also provides a power distribution network line section fault risk evaluation device which can be used for executing the power distribution network line section fault risk evaluation method according to any one of the embodiments of the invention.
Referring to fig. 2, fig. 2 is a block diagram illustrating structural connection of a fault risk evaluation device for a power distribution network line segment according to an embodiment of the present invention.
The embodiment of the invention provides a power distribution network line section fault risk evaluation device, which comprises:
the acquisition module 1 is used for acquiring operation data of a target feeder line from the time of operation and fault influence data of a target line section of the target feeder line; the operation data comprise accumulated fault times and accumulated operation days, and the fault influence data comprise the number of medium-low voltage users and the last year data value of all loads between the downstream of a target line section and the automatic switch of the next distribution network;
the first calculation module 2 is used for calculating the fault probability of the target feeder line according to the accumulated fault times and the accumulated operation days to obtain the target overall fault probability;
the second calculation module 3 is used for calculating the fault probability of the corresponding target road section according to the target overall fault probability to obtain the target segment fault probability;
the third calculation module 4 is used for calculating the fault consequence influence value of the corresponding target road section according to the number of medium-low voltage users and the last year data value of all loads;
and a fourth calculating module 5, configured to calculate a fault risk value of the corresponding target road segment according to the target segment fault probability and the fault result influence value.
In one possible implementation, the accumulated number of operation days carries time information of daily operation, and the first computing module 2 includes:
a first calculating unit, configured to calculate the number of days of operation in the current year of the target feeder i according to the time information of operation every day;
a second calculation unit, configured to calculate a failure probability of the target feeder line as a target overall failure probability according to the following formula:
wherein P is i For the failure probability of target feeder i, n i For the accumulated failure times m of the target feeder line i since the operation i For the accumulated running days since the target feeder i was put into operation, M i The current year of the target feeder i is the number of days operated, M is the total number of natural days in the current year.
In one possible implementation, the second computing module 3 includes:
a determining unit for determining a failure probability duty ratio of the target link section in the target feeder;
and the third calculation unit is used for calculating the product of the fault probability duty ratio and the target overall fault probability as the fault probability of the corresponding target road section to obtain the target segment fault probability.
In one implementation manner, the determining unit is specifically configured to:
and calculating the line length ratio of the target line section to the target feeder line, and taking the obtained ratio result as the fault probability duty ratio of the corresponding target line section in the target feeder line.
In one implementation, the third computing module 4 includes:
a fourth calculation unit for calculating a target score of the last year data values of all the loads;
and the fifth calculation unit is used for calculating the product of the obtained target quantile value and the medium-low voltage user number to be used as a fault result influence value of the corresponding target road section.
In one implementation manner, the fourth computing unit is specifically configured to include:
and calculating 95% quantile values of the last year data values of all the loads as target quantile values.
In one possible implementation, the fourth computing module 5 includes:
and a sixth calculation unit, configured to calculate, as a failure risk value of the corresponding target road segment, a product of the target segment failure probability and the failure outcome influence value.
The invention also provides a power distribution network line section fault risk evaluation device, which comprises:
a memory for storing instructions; the instructions are used for implementing the power distribution network line section fault risk evaluation method according to any one of the embodiments;
and the processor is used for executing the instructions in the memory.
The invention also provides a computer readable storage medium, wherein a computer program is stored on the computer readable storage medium, and the computer program realizes the fault risk evaluation method of the power distribution network line section according to any embodiment when being executed by a processor.
According to the embodiment of the invention, the fault risk evaluation is refined to the line sections, and the risk evaluation of each line section of the power distribution network is realized, so that operators can be effectively instructed to conduct distribution network automatic switch distribution points in a targeted manner, and the fault processing and isolation capability of the distribution network is improved.
It will be clearly understood by those skilled in the art that, for convenience and brevity of description, specific working processes of the above-described apparatus, modules and units may refer to corresponding processes in the foregoing method embodiments, and specific beneficial effects of the above-described apparatus, modules and units may refer to corresponding beneficial effects in the foregoing method embodiments, which are not repeated herein.
In the several embodiments provided in this application, it should be understood that the disclosed apparatus and method may be implemented in other ways. For example, the apparatus embodiments described above are merely illustrative, and for example, the division of the modules is merely a logical function division, and there may be additional divisions when actually implemented, for example, multiple modules or components may be combined or integrated into another apparatus, or some features may be omitted or not performed. Alternatively, the coupling or direct coupling or communication connection shown or discussed with each other may be an indirect coupling or communication connection via some interfaces, devices or modules, which may be in electrical, mechanical, or other forms.
The modules described as separate components may or may not be physically separate, and components shown as modules may or may not be physical modules, i.e., may be located in one place, or may be distributed over a plurality of network modules. Some or all of the modules may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of this embodiment.
In addition, each functional module in each embodiment of the present invention may be integrated into one processing module, or each module may exist alone physically, or two or more modules may be integrated into one module. The integrated modules may be implemented in hardware or in software functional modules.
The integrated modules, if implemented in the form of software functional modules and sold or used as a stand-alone product, may be stored in a computer readable storage medium. Based on such understanding, the technical solution of the present invention may be embodied essentially or in part or all of the technical solution or in part in the form of a software product stored in a storage medium, including instructions for causing a computer device (which may be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) to perform all or part of the steps of the method according to the embodiments of the present invention. And the aforementioned storage medium includes: a U-disk, a removable hard disk, a Read-Only Memory (ROM), a random access Memory (RAM, random Access Memory), a magnetic disk, or an optical disk, or other various media capable of storing program codes.
The above embodiments are only for illustrating the technical solution of the present invention, and not for limiting the same; although the invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it will be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that: the technical scheme described in the foregoing embodiments can be modified or some technical features thereof can be replaced by equivalents; such modifications and substitutions do not depart from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A power distribution network line segment fault risk assessment method, comprising:
acquiring operation data of a target feeder line from the time of operation and fault influence data of a target line section of the target feeder line; the operation data comprise accumulated fault times and accumulated operation days, and the fault influence data comprise the number of medium-low voltage users and the last year data value of all loads between the downstream of a target line section and the automatic switch of the next distribution network;
calculating the fault probability of the target feeder line according to the accumulated fault times and the accumulated operation days to obtain the target overall fault probability;
calculating the fault probability of the corresponding target road section according to the target overall fault probability to obtain the target segment fault probability;
calculating fault consequence influence values of corresponding target road sections according to the number of medium-low voltage users and the last year data values of all loads;
and calculating the fault risk value of the corresponding target road section according to the target segment fault probability and the fault result influence value.
2. The power distribution network line segment fault risk evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein the accumulated operation days carry time information of daily operation, the calculating the fault probability of the target feeder line according to the accumulated fault times and the accumulated operation days, and obtaining a target overall fault probability comprises:
calculating the number of days of operation of the target feeder line i in the current year according to the time information of operation every day;
calculating the fault probability of the target feeder line as a target overall fault probability according to the following formula:
wherein P is i For the failure probability of target feeder i, n i For the accumulated failure times m of the target feeder line i since the operation i For the accumulated running days since the target feeder i was put into operation, M i The current year of the target feeder i is the number of days operated, M is the total number of natural days in the current year.
3. The power distribution network line segment fault risk evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein the calculating the fault probability of the corresponding target line segment according to the target overall fault probability to obtain a target segment fault probability comprises:
determining a fault probability duty cycle of the target line segment in the target feeder;
and calculating the product of the fault probability duty ratio and the target overall fault probability as the fault probability of the corresponding target road section to obtain the target segment fault probability.
4. A power distribution network line segment fault risk assessment method according to claim 3, wherein said determining the probability of fault duty cycle of the target line segment in the target feeder comprises:
and calculating the line length ratio of the target line section to the target feeder line, and taking the obtained ratio result as the fault probability duty ratio of the corresponding target line section in the target feeder line.
5. The power distribution network line segment fault risk assessment method according to claim 1, wherein calculating the fault consequence influence value of the corresponding target line segment according to the last year data value of the medium-low voltage user number and all loads comprises:
calculating target quantile values of last year data values of all loads;
and taking the product of the calculated target index value and the medium-low voltage user number as a fault consequence influence value of the corresponding target road section.
6. The power distribution network line segment fault risk assessment method according to claim 5, wherein the calculating the target score of the last year data value of all loads includes:
and calculating 95% quantile values of the last year data values of all the loads as target quantile values.
7. The power distribution network line segment fault risk assessment method according to claim 1, wherein the calculating the fault risk value of the corresponding target line segment according to the target segment fault probability and the fault outcome influence value comprises:
and calculating the product of the target segment fault probability and the fault consequence influence value as a fault risk value of the corresponding target line section.
8. A power distribution network line segment fault risk assessment device, comprising:
the acquisition module is used for acquiring operation data of a target feeder line from the time of operation and fault influence data of a target line section of the target feeder line; the operation data comprise accumulated fault times and accumulated operation days, and the fault influence data comprise the number of medium-low voltage users and the last year data value of all loads between the downstream of a target line section and the automatic switch of the next distribution network;
the first calculation module is used for calculating the fault probability of the target feeder line according to the accumulated fault times and the accumulated operation days to obtain the target overall fault probability;
the second calculation module is used for calculating the fault probability of the corresponding target road section according to the target overall fault probability to obtain the target segment fault probability;
the third calculation module is used for calculating fault consequence influence values of corresponding target road sections according to the number of medium-low voltage users and the last year data values of all loads;
and the fourth calculation module is used for calculating the fault risk value of the corresponding target road section according to the target segment fault probability and the fault result influence value.
9. A power distribution network line segment fault risk assessment device, comprising:
a memory for storing instructions; wherein the instructions are for implementing a power distribution network line segment failure risk assessment method according to any one of claims 1-7;
and the processor is used for executing the instructions in the memory.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, wherein a computer program is stored on the computer-readable storage medium, which when executed by a processor, implements the power distribution network line segment failure risk assessment method according to any one of claims 1 to 7.
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Cited By (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN116914704A (en) * | 2023-09-13 | 2023-10-20 | 国网天津市电力公司电力科学研究院 | Distribution network relay protection fixed value configuration method, device, equipment and medium |
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Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN116914704A (en) * | 2023-09-13 | 2023-10-20 | 国网天津市电力公司电力科学研究院 | Distribution network relay protection fixed value configuration method, device, equipment and medium |
| CN116914704B (en) * | 2023-09-13 | 2024-01-26 | 国网天津市电力公司电力科学研究院 | Distribution network relay protection fixed value configuration method, device, equipment and medium |
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