CN116188168B - Carbon emission quota trading method and system based on dynamic emission prediction - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention relates to a predicted or optimized management method, in particular to a carbon emission quota transaction method and system based on dynamic emission prediction; the method comprises the steps of collecting company carbon emission data, calculating the increase rate of the company carbon emission each year, predicting the first carbon emission of the present year according to the increase rate of the carbon emission each year, predicting the second carbon emission of the present year according to the annual planned completion condition, calculating the final carbon emission of the present year according to the first carbon emission and the second carbon emission, and comparing the carbon emission quota of the company. According to the invention, the two methods are integrated to predict the carbon emission, so that the accuracy of the predicted carbon emission in the year is improved, and the accuracy of the company in carrying out carbon emission quota transaction according to the predicted carbon emission in the year is ensured.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a predicted or optimized management method, in particular to a carbon emission quota transaction method and system based on dynamic emission prediction.
Background
Carbon emissions are average greenhouse gas emissions generated during production, transportation, use and recovery of the product, and global warming has become one of the most recognized global crisis in recent years, so that it is necessary to make predictive statistics on carbon dioxide emissions in cities in advance and then recover or use the carbon dioxide emissions by a correct method so that the carbon dioxide emissions reach emission standards; in order to use market economy to promote an important mechanism of environmental protection, enterprises can use or trade energy sources inside the enterprises and at home and abroad with the reduced carbon emission on the premise that the total emission amount regulated by the carbon emission trade is not broken through.
In order to plan carbon emission in advance, a company predicts the carbon emission amount of the company in the current year after planning the annual plan so as to sell or purchase the carbon emission quota in advance, thereby ensuring the normal production operation of the company.
At present, when predicting carbon emissions, the prediction of carbon emissions is mainly performed according to a formulated annual schedule, but when the annual schedule is executed, the annual schedule cannot be completed or overgrown due to certain problems, when the prediction of carbon emission content is performed according to the annual schedule, the numerical value of the predicted carbon emission is inaccurate, so that when a company sells or buys carbon emission quota according to the carbon emission, the data deviation of the carbon emission quota is generated, and therefore, a method for improving the prediction of the carbon emission is needed to help the company to buy or sell the carbon emission quota.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a carbon emission quota transaction method and a system based on dynamic emission prediction, so as to solve the problems in the background art.
In order to achieve the above object, one of the objects of the present invention is to provide a carbon emission allowance trading method based on dynamic emission prediction, comprising the steps of:
s1, collecting annual plans of a designated company in recent years and carbon emission corresponding to each annual, acquiring annual plans of the company in the year at the same time, and acquiring the increase condition of annual plan completion rate each year according to acquired data;
s2, calculating the annual carbon emission growth rate of the company according to the carbon emission in recent years of the company, and calculating the growth condition of the annual carbon emission growth rate according to the annual carbon emission growth rate;
s3, predicting the increase rate of the carbon emission in the present year according to the increase condition of the increase rate of the carbon emission in each year, predicting the first carbon emission in the present year according to the predicted increase rate of the carbon emission in the present year, predicting the second carbon emission in the present year according to the planned completion condition in the present year, and calculating the final carbon emission in the present year according to the first carbon emission and the second carbon emission;
s4, comparing the carbon emission quota of the company, determining whether the annual emission amount exceeds the carbon emission quota, and determining the selling or buying of the carbon emission quota according to the condition that whether the emission amount exceeds the carbon emission quota.
As a further improvement of the technical scheme, in the step S1, the annual schedule of the company and the carbon emission corresponding to each annual are collected, the annual schedule completion of the company is collected, and the increase condition of the annual schedule completion rate of the company is calculated according to the annual schedule completion of the company.
As a further improvement of the technical scheme, the formula for calculating the increase condition of the annual planned completion rate of the company is as follows:
wherein, the liquid crystal display device comprises a liquid crystal display device,representing the rate of increase of the company's work completion in n-2 years to n years,/->Task rate for completing annual plan for the nth year of company,/->Annual planned workload for company nth year plan, ++>Indicating the amount of workload increase between adjacent years.
As a further improvement of the technical proposal, according to the followingThe work load which can be completed in the n+1 year and the completion rate of the n+1 year plan are calculated, and the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein, the liquid crystal display device comprises a liquid crystal display device,to predict annual planned completion rate of a year, < + >>Annual schedule for the forecast year.
As a further improvement of the technical scheme, the formula for calculating the annual carbon emission growth rate of the company in S2 is as follows:
wherein, the liquid crystal display device comprises a liquid crystal display device,for the increase rate of carbon emissions of the nth year of the company>Carbon emission for the nth year of the company, < ->Carbon emission is the n-1 th year of the company, wherein n represents the Gregorian time, if the present year is 2023, n is 2023, and n-1 is 2022;
by calculation ofCan deduce the carbon emission growth rate of n-1 th year +.>，Carbon emissions from the company in the n-2 th year.
As a further improvement of the present technical solution, the formula for calculating the growth rate according to the growth rate of carbon emissions per year in S2 is as follows:
wherein, the liquid crystal display device comprises a liquid crystal display device,the increase rate of carbon emissions expressed as n-th year corresponds to the increase of the increase rate of carbon emissions of n-1 th year,/->For the increase rate of carbon emissions of the nth year of the company>Is the increasing rate of carbon emission in the n-1 th year.
As a further improvement of the present technical solution, the formula for predicting the carbon emission in the present year in S3 is:
wherein, the liquid crystal display device comprises a liquid crystal display device,expressed as a first carbon emission amount predicted by the annual increase of carbon emissions, ++>Representing the predicted second carbon emission of the year by annual planned completion, ++>Carbon emissions expressed as predicted n+1th year;
by calculation ofAnd->And do->And->Extracting average value to improve predictionAccuracy of (3).
The second object of the invention is to provide a system for realizing the carbon emission allowance transaction method based on dynamic emission prediction, which comprises a data acquisition unit, a data statistics processing unit and a carbon emission allowance processing unit;
the data acquisition unit is used for acquiring annual plans of a designated company in recent years and carbon emission corresponding to each annual, and acquiring data of the completion rate of the annual plans corresponding to the company;
the data statistics processing unit predicts the carbon emission in the present year according to the data acquired by the data acquisition unit;
the carbon emission allowance processing unit determines whether the company needs to sell or buy the carbon emission allowance in the present year according to the present year carbon emission amount predicted by the data statistics processing unit and the carbon emission allowance allocated to the company.
As a further improvement of the technical scheme, the data acquisition unit calculates the increase condition of the annual plan completion rate of the company according to the annual plan completion degree of the company every year when acquiring data.
As a further improvement of the technical scheme, the data statistics processing unit has two calculation steps in the process of predicting the carbon emission in the present year, wherein the calculation steps are as follows:
step one: calculating the annual carbon emission growth rate of a company, calculating the growth condition of the growth rate according to the annual carbon emission growth rate, predicting the annual carbon emission growth rate according to the annual carbon emission growth rate, and acquiring the annual first carbon emission according to the predicted annual carbon emission growth rate;
step two: and calculating a second carbon emission according to the increase condition of the annual planned completion rate of the company, and averaging the acquired data of the first carbon emission and the second carbon emission to calculate the carbon emission in the year.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
1. according to the carbon emission quota trading method and the carbon emission quota trading method based on dynamic emission prediction, the annual planned completion rate is predicted according to the annual planned completion rate, the second carbon emission is calculated according to the annual planned completion rate, the annual carbon emission growth rate of a company is calculated, the growth condition of the growth rate is calculated according to the annual carbon emission growth rate, the current year carbon emission growth rate is predicted, the current year first carbon emission is predicted, the current year carbon emission is calculated through the first carbon emission and the second carbon emission, the current year carbon emission is predicted through the first carbon emission and the second carbon emission, and the two methods are integrated, so that the accuracy of the predicted current year carbon emission is improved, and the accuracy of the current year carbon emission quota trading according to the predicted current year carbon emission is guaranteed.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a block diagram of the overall steps of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The following description of the embodiments of the present invention will be made clearly and completely with reference to the accompanying drawings, in which it is apparent that the embodiments described are only some embodiments of the present invention, but not all embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be made by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the invention without making any inventive effort, are intended to be within the scope of the invention.
Example 1
At present, when predicting carbon emissions, the prediction of carbon emissions is mainly performed according to a formulated annual schedule, but when the annual schedule is executed, the annual schedule cannot be completed or overgrown due to certain problems, when the prediction of carbon emission content is performed according to the annual schedule, the numerical value of the predicted carbon emission is inaccurate, so that when a company sells or buys carbon emission quota according to the carbon emission, the data deviation of the carbon emission quota is generated, and therefore, a method for improving the prediction of the carbon emission is needed to help the company to buy or sell the carbon emission quota.
In order to solve the problem of inaccurate calculation of the carbon emission, referring to fig. 1, one of the purposes of the present embodiment is to provide a carbon emission quota trading method based on dynamic emission prediction, which includes the following steps:
s1, collecting annual plans of a designated company in recent years and carbon emission corresponding to each annual, acquiring annual plans of the company in the year at the same time, and acquiring the increase condition of annual plan completion rate each year according to acquired data;
s1, collecting annual plans of a company in recent years and carbon emission corresponding to each annual, collecting the annual plan completion degree of the company, and calculating the increase condition of the annual plan completion rate of the company according to the annual plan completion degree of the company;
the formula for calculating the growth condition of the annual planned completion rate of the company is as follows:
wherein, the liquid crystal display device comprises a liquid crystal display device,representing the rate of increase of the company's work completion in n-2 years to n years,/->Task rate for completing annual plan for the nth year of company,/->Annual planned workload for company nth year plan, ++>Indicating the amount of workload increase between adjacent years.
According toThe work load which can be completed in the n+1 year and the completion rate of the n+1 year plan are calculated, and the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein, the liquid crystal display device comprises a liquid crystal display device,to predict annual planned completion rate of a year, < + >>Annual schedule for the forecast year;
the annual planning completion rate of the predicted year is predicted, so that the annual planning completion efficiency of the predicted year is obtained, and the workload which can be completed in the predicted year is predicted according to the annual planning completion rate.
S2, calculating the annual carbon emission growth rate of the company according to the carbon emission in recent years of the company, and calculating the growth condition of the annual carbon emission growth rate according to the annual carbon emission growth rate;
the formula for calculating the annual carbon emission growth rate of the company in S2 is as follows:
wherein, the liquid crystal display device comprises a liquid crystal display device,for the increase rate of carbon emissions of the nth year of the company>Carbon emission for the nth year of the company, < ->Carbon emission is the n-1 th year of the company, wherein n represents the Gregorian time, if the present year is 2023, n is 2023, and n-1 is 2022; by calculating->Can deduce the carbon emission growth rate of n-1 th year +.>，Carbon emissions from the company in the n-2 th year.
The formula for calculating the growth rate according to the growth rate of carbon emission per year in S2 is as follows:
wherein, the liquid crystal display device comprises a liquid crystal display device,the increase rate of carbon emissions expressed as n-th year corresponds to the increase of the increase rate of carbon emissions of n-1 th year,/->For the increase rate of carbon emissions of the nth year of the company>Is the increasing rate of carbon emission in the n-1 th year.
S3, predicting the increase rate of the carbon emission in the present year according to the increase condition of the increase rate of the carbon emission in each year, predicting the first carbon emission in the present year according to the predicted increase rate of the carbon emission in the present year, predicting the second carbon emission in the present year according to the planned completion condition in the present year, and calculating the final carbon emission in the present year according to the first carbon emission and the second carbon emission;
the formula for predicting the carbon emission in the present year in S3 is:
wherein, the liquid crystal display device comprises a liquid crystal display device,expressed as a first carbon emission amount predicted by the annual increase of carbon emissions, ++>Representing the predicted second carbon emission of the year by annual planned completion, ++>Carbon emissions expressed as predicted n+1th year; by calculating->And->And do->And->Extracting average value to improve predictionAccuracy of (3).
S4, comparing the carbon emission quota of the company, determining whether the annual emission amount exceeds the carbon emission quota, and determining the selling or buying of the carbon emission quota according to the condition that whether the emission amount exceeds the carbon emission quota.
The method comprises the steps of predicting the completion rate of annual planning according to the calculated completion rate of annual planning, calculating the second carbon emission according to the annual planned completion rate, calculating the annual carbon emission growth rate of a company, predicting the annual carbon emission growth rate, predicting the first carbon emission of the present year, predicting the carbon emission of the present year according to the annual carbon emission growth rate, calculating the carbon emission of the present year according to the first carbon emission and the second carbon emission, integrating the predicted carbon emission by the two methods, improving the accuracy of the predicted carbon emission of the present year, and ensuring the accuracy of carbon emission quota transaction of the company according to the predicted carbon emission of the present year.
The second object of the invention is to provide a system for realizing the carbon emission allowance transaction method based on dynamic emission prediction, which comprises a data acquisition unit, a data statistics processing unit and a carbon emission allowance processing unit;
the data acquisition unit is used for acquiring annual plans of a designated company in recent years and carbon emission corresponding to each annual, and acquiring data of the completion rate of the annual plans corresponding to the company;
when the data acquisition unit acquires data, the increase condition of the annual planning completion rate of the company is calculated according to the annual planning completion degree of the company every year;
the data statistics processing unit predicts the carbon emission in the present year according to the data acquired by the data acquisition unit;
in the process of predicting the carbon emission of the present year, the data statistics processing unit has two calculation steps, wherein the calculation steps are as follows:
step one: calculating the annual carbon emission growth rate of a company, calculating the growth condition of the growth rate according to the annual carbon emission growth rate, predicting the annual carbon emission growth rate according to the annual carbon emission growth rate, and acquiring the annual first carbon emission according to the predicted annual carbon emission growth rate;
step two: and calculating a second carbon emission according to the increase condition of the annual planned completion rate of the company, and averaging the acquired data of the first carbon emission and the second carbon emission to calculate the carbon emission in the year.
The carbon emission allowance processing unit determines whether the company needs to sell or buy the carbon emission allowance in the present year according to the present year carbon emission amount predicted by the data statistics processing unit and the carbon emission allowance allocated to the company.
The foregoing has shown and described the basic principles, principal features and advantages of the invention. It will be understood by those skilled in the art that the present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments, and that the above-described embodiments and descriptions are only preferred embodiments of the present invention, and are not intended to limit the invention, and that various changes and modifications may be made therein without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention as claimed. The scope of the invention is defined by the appended claims and equivalents thereof.
Claims (5)
1. The carbon emission quota transaction method based on dynamic emission prediction is characterized by comprising the following steps of: the method comprises the following steps:
s1, acquiring the increase condition of the annual planned work completion amount; the annual plans of the designated company in recent years and the carbon emission corresponding to each annual are collected, the annual plan of the company in the year is obtained, and the increment condition of the increment of the annual plan work completion amount of each year is obtained according to the collected data;
the formula for calculating the growth condition of the annual planned work completion amount of the company is as follows:
wherein (1)>An increase rate indicating the increase in the work completion amount of the company from n-2 years to n years,/->Task completion rate for a company to complete annual schedule for nth year,/->Annual planned workload for company nth year plan, ++>Representing the amount of workload increase between adjacent years;
s2, calculating the annual carbon emission growth rate; according to the carbon emission amount of the company in recent years, calculating the annual carbon emission growth rate of the company, and calculating the growth condition of the growth rate according to the annual carbon emission growth rate;
the formula for calculating the annual carbon emission growth rate of the company in the S2 is as follows:
wherein (1)>For the increase rate of carbon emissions of the nth year of the company>Carbon emission for the nth year of the company, < ->Carbon emissions for the n-1 th year of the company;
the formula for calculating the growth condition of the growth rate according to the growth rate of the carbon emission every year is as follows:
wherein (1)>The increase rate of carbon emissions expressed as n-th year corresponds to the increase of the increase rate of carbon emissions of n-1 th year,/->Is the present publicIncrease rate of carbon emission in span n-th year, < >>An increase rate of carbon emissions of n-1 th year;
s3, predicting the annual carbon emission growth rate; predicting the increase rate of the carbon emission in the present year according to the increase condition of the increase rate of the carbon emission in each year, predicting the first carbon emission in the present year according to the increase rate of the carbon emission in the present year, predicting the second carbon emission in the present year according to the planned completion condition in the present year, and calculating the final carbon emission in the present year according to the first carbon emission and the second carbon emission;
the formula for predicting the carbon emission in the present year in S3 is: wherein (1)>Expressed as a first carbon emission amount predicted by the annual increase of carbon emissions, ++>Representing the predicted second carbon emission of the year by annual planned completion, ++>Carbon emissions expressed as predicted n+1th year; according to said->Calculating the work load which can be completed in the n+1th year and predicting the completion rate of the n+1th annual plan +.>，/>Annual schedule for the forecast year;
s4, selling or buying carbon emission quota; and comparing the carbon emission quota of the company, determining whether the emission amount exceeds the current year, and determining the selling or buying of the carbon emission quota according to the condition of whether the emission amount exceeds the current year.
2. The carbon emission allowance transaction method based on dynamic emission prediction according to claim 1, wherein: and S1, collecting annual plans of the company in recent years and carbon emission corresponding to each annual, collecting the annual plan completion degree of the company on each year, and calculating the increase condition of the annual plan completion rate of the company according to the annual plan completion degree of the company.
3. A dynamic emission prediction based carbon emission allowance trading system for performing the dynamic emission prediction based carbon emission allowance trading method of any one of claims 1-2, characterized by: the system comprises a data acquisition unit, a data statistics processing unit and a carbon emission quota processing unit;
the data acquisition unit is used for acquiring annual plans of a designated company in recent years and carbon emission corresponding to each annual, and acquiring data of the completion rate of the annual plans corresponding to the company;
the data statistics processing unit predicts the carbon emission in the present year according to the data acquired by the data acquisition unit;
the carbon emission allowance processing unit determines whether the company needs to sell or buy the carbon emission allowance in the present year according to the present year carbon emission amount predicted by the data statistics processing unit and the carbon emission allowance allocated to the company.
4. The dynamic emission prediction based carbon emission allowance transaction system according to claim 3, wherein: when the data acquisition unit acquires data, the growth condition of the growth amount of the annual planned work completion amount of the company is calculated according to the annual planned completion degree of the company.
5. The dynamic emission prediction based carbon emission allowance transaction system according to claim 4, wherein: in the process of predicting the carbon emission of the present year, the data statistics processing unit has two calculation steps, wherein the calculation steps are as follows:
step one: calculating the annual carbon emission growth rate of a company, calculating the growth condition of the growth rate according to the annual carbon emission growth rate, predicting the annual carbon emission growth rate according to the annual carbon emission growth rate, and acquiring the annual first carbon emission according to the predicted annual carbon emission growth rate;
step two: and calculating a second carbon emission according to the increase condition of the increase amount of the annual planned work completion amount of the company, and averaging the acquired data of the first carbon emission and the second carbon emission to calculate the carbon emission of the year.
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