CN116151808A - Power distribution equipment state maintenance method based on risk assessment - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention relates to a power distribution equipment state maintenance method based on risk assessment, which is characterized in that the influence of different maintenance modes and maintenance time on the fault risk and the maintenance risk of a power distribution network is fully considered, a maintenance income function is defined under a power distribution network risk assessment framework, the highest income ratio is used as an optimization target, the safety constraint of a power grid, the maintenance relation constraint, the maintenance resource constraint and the like are used as constraint conditions, and an optimization algorithm is adopted to optimize two decision variables of the maintenance modes and the maintenance time.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of medium-voltage distribution network operation and detection, and particularly relates to a distribution equipment state maintenance method based on risk assessment.
Background
In the running process of the power distribution network, equipment overhaul and faults are a pair of contradictions, and various overhaul systems coordinate the contradictions in different modes. Wherein, post-maintenance (i.e. maintenance performed after equipment failure) reduces equipment monitoring and maintenance costs, but faces the threat of greater failure risk, which is not desirable in modern grid operation; regular scheduled maintenance is difficult to grasp proper maintenance time, and a situation of conservation or impossibility exists inevitably; the state maintenance is carried out on the maintenance opportunity based on the current actual running condition of the equipment, compared with the periodic maintenance planning, the accuracy of mastering the maintenance opportunity is improved, and the contradiction between maintenance and faults is effectively coordinated.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to overcome the defects of the prior art, and provides a power distribution equipment state maintenance method based on risk assessment, which can fully consider the influences of different maintenance modes and maintenance time on the fault risk and the maintenance risk of a power distribution network, define a maintenance income function under a power distribution network risk assessment framework, take the highest income ratio as an optimization target, take grid safety constraint, maintenance relation constraint, maintenance resource constraint and the like as constraint conditions, and adopt an optimization algorithm to optimize two decision variables of the maintenance mode and the maintenance time.
The invention solves the technical problems by adopting the following technical scheme:
a power distribution equipment status maintenance method based on risk assessment, comprising the following steps:
step 1, randomly generating a population, wherein individuals in the population are an overhaul scheme;
step 2, judging whether the overhaul scheme meets constraint conditions, if so, carrying out step 3, otherwise, replacing individuals in the population;
step 3, calculating the overhaul risk and the fault risk of the distribution network in an overhaul scene, and taking the yield as an adaptability value corresponding to an overhaul scheme;
step 4, judging a state maintenance decision convergence criterion, and when the maximum iteration number is reached or the fitness value of the optimal solution is not reduced within the given iteration number, finishing the optimizing and taking a maintenance scheme with the maximum fitness value as a decision result of the distribution network state maintenance; otherwise, generating a new population by crossing and mutation and returning to the step 2.
The specific calculation method of the overhaul risk in the step 3 is as follows:
wherein R is M The maintenance risk of the distribution network is realized; r is R M1 For the maintenance cost of the equipment in the period t, R M2 For t period maintenance planning loss of load, R M3 For the random load loss in the t period, when no equipment maintenance is arranged in the period, the three values are all 0; n (N) h The method comprises the steps of collecting equipment to be overhauled in the overhauling scene; c (C) ij Adopting maintenance cost of the maintenance grade j for the equipment i; p (P) m Is the average value of the m load curve; η (eta) m Is an index of importance to the user; m is M h The number of the users for planning the load loss; delta T h To plan maintenance time; c (C) h The unit load loss cost caused by the scheduled maintenance is reduced; m is M h,s And DeltaT h,s Respectively counting the number of unplanned load loss and the fault time caused by the fault state s of the shutdown equipment in the overhaul scene h; m is M 0,s And DeltaT 0,s The number of unplanned load loss and the fault time caused by the fault state s are respectively not considered in the maintenance scene h; p is p s Probability of occurrence for fault state s; c (C) s Is the unit load loss cost, N t To study the number of divided periods in a period S （t） And (5) collecting power grid faults in the t time period.
The specific calculation method of the fault risk in the step 3 is as follows:
wherein: r is R F Is a fault risk of the power grid; r is R F1 For power network loss, R F2 Loss for the individual equipment; s (t) is a power grid fault set in a t time period, S is one fault type, and p s For its probability of occurrence; n (N) T The number of segments for the study period; m is M s Is the set of affected users under the condition of fault s; delta T s The power failure time caused by the fault s; p (P) m Is the average value of the m load curve; η (eta) m Is an index of importance to the user; c (C) s The unit load loss cost; n (N) s The method comprises the steps of collecting fault equipment under the condition of fault s; c (C) i,l The cost of troubleshooting a level l is adopted for the equipment i; n is the number of power grid devices; p (P) i 、Q i For normal operation and failure probability of device i, R F1,S For the loss of the electric network caused by the accident s, R F2,S Individual loss of equipment for the incident s.
The specific calculation method of the yield in the step 3 is as follows:
wherein R is F_CBM To study the risk of grid faults under the condition of implementing state maintenance in a period, R F_original The method comprises the steps of (1) researching the risk of power grid faults when no state maintenance is implemented in a period; r is R M To study the overhaul risk in a certain overhaul scene in the period.
The invention has the advantages and positive effects that:
the invention randomly generates a population, wherein individuals in the population are an overhaul scheme; judging whether the overhaul scheme meets constraint conditions, if so, adding the next step, otherwise, replacing individuals in the population; calculating the overhaul risk and the fault risk of the distribution network in an overhaul scene, and taking the yield as an adaptability value corresponding to an overhaul scheme; judging a state overhaul decision convergence criterion, and when the adaptation value reaching the maximum iteration number or the optimal solution is not reduced within the given iteration number, finishing optimizing and taking an overhaul scheme with the maximum adaptation value as a decision result of the distribution network state overhaul; otherwise, generating a new population by crossing and mutation and returning to the yield calculation. According to the method, the influence of different overhaul modes and overhaul time on the fault risk and the overhaul risk of the power distribution network is fully considered, an overhaul gain function is defined under a distribution network risk assessment framework, the highest yield is used as an optimization target, the safety constraint of the power grid, the overhaul relation constraint, the overhaul resource constraint and the like are used as constraint conditions, and an optimization algorithm is adopted to optimize two decision variables of the overhaul modes and the overhaul time.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of the present invention used in this embodiment.
Detailed Description
The present invention will be described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings.
A power distribution equipment state maintenance method based on risk assessment, as shown in fig. 1, comprises the following steps:
and step 1, reading structural parameters and equipment parameters of the power distribution network.
And 2, initializing genetic algorithm parameters.
And step 3, randomly generating an overhaul scene, wherein the overhaul scene comprises an overhaul time period and an overhaul grade, and simultaneously generating a plurality of overhaul schemes.
And step 4, judging whether the selected overhaul scheme meets the constraint, if so, carrying out step 5, otherwise, returning to step 3.
And 5, reading the monitoring data of the equipment state of the power distribution network, fitting a state index-fault function by using a least square method, fitting an equipment fault probability curve based on the historical monitoring data, and calculating to obtain the equipment fault rate before and after maintenance.
The equipment for causing power failure of the distribution network mainly comprises overhead lines, cable lines, transformers and various switching equipment, and takes the comprehensive influence of the monitoring values of all states into consideration, wherein the comprehensive influence is quantitatively analyzed by considering the different monitoring means of the state quantity of each equipment, the difference of the monitoring values and the difference of the normal operation range, the original state monitoring values are subjected to normalized processing, so that the normalized values are between 0 and 1, wherein 0 represents the optimal state of the equipment, and 1 represents the worst state. According to the difference of the positive and negative correlation between the state monitoring value and the health condition of the equipment, the out-of-limit condition of the state monitoring value is divided into the following two conditions:
1. normal operating range of certain monitoring quantity u of equipment [ Z ] min ,H]. If the state monitoring value u reaches the minimum value Z min The device is in an optimal operating state on the item; when u is>And H, the equipment is in an abnormal operation state. U may be normalized by the following formula, where r is the per unit value:
2. normal operating range of certain monitoring quantity u of equipment max ]. If the monitored quantity u reaches the maximum value Z max The equipment is in the optimal operation state under the project; when u is<And L, the equipment is in an abnormal operation state. U may be normalized by:
the state monitoring items for representing the running states of the equipment are numerous, the influence on the fault rate is different, and weights are required to be assigned to all state monitoring values of the equipment according to the importance degree and the running experience, so that the state index after the equipment is weighted is obtained. The device state index x is expressed as:
wherein: w (w) i And r i Weights and normalized monitor values of the state monitor term i, respectively, and
；n m to monitor the number of items.
The equipment state index is based on real-time state monitoring data, can comprehensively reflect the real-time running condition and reliability level of equipment, can embody the effect of maintenance measures, and overcomes the limitation of obtaining the average failure rate based on historical statistical data in the prior art. According to the document Electric power distribution reliability, the failure rate of the power distribution equipment and the state index show an exponential relationship:
wherein lambda is the equipment failure rate; A. b, C is a coefficient to be determined, and is obtained by performing data fitting on the historical state indexes and the fault statistics based on a least square method.
After the real-time state parameters of the equipment are collected, the real-time fault rate of the equipment can be obtained according to the exponential relation between the fault rate and the state index of the power distribution equipment. The equipment fault probability based on the equipment state index is an integrated quantitative evaluation on the current condition of the equipment, the fault probability of the equipment after different types of maintenance work is also required to be predicted in the state maintenance decision optimization, and a service life back-off factor alpha is selected j And equivalent work-life t eq To describe the success of the maintenance work, which is described in detail below:
(1) According to the standard assembly of the distribution network state overhaul system, the overhaul modes of the power distribution network equipment are divided into A class, B class, C class, D class and E classThe first three types need power outage overhaul, the second two types can be electrified overhaul, the overhaul of different degrees is represented by adopting equipment overhaul grades j, and the service life rollback factors alpha under different overhaul modes are actually set by combining engineering j 。
(2) And fitting the equipment to obtain an equipment fault probability curve lambda (t) based on equipment historical fault probability analysis, and then searching the equivalent service life of the equipment (the service life is related to the actual performance of the equipment and is different from the total number of operation years of the equipment since the equipment is put into operation) on the fault probability curve according to the real-time fault rate of the current condition of the equipment.
From the above discussion, the failure rate at time t in the study period can be found:
wherein: t is t 0 To study the equivalent life of the cycle time starting device; t is t m The method comprises the steps of starting time for overhauling equipment in a research period; t (T) m For the duration of the service.
And 6, researching and calculating the overhaul risk and the fault risk in the period.
The concrete calculation method of the overhaul risk comprises the following steps:
wherein R is M The maintenance risk of the distribution network is realized; r is R M1 For the maintenance cost of the equipment in the period t, R M2 For t period maintenance planning loss of load, R M3 For the random load loss in the t period, when no equipment maintenance is arranged in the period, the three values are all 0; n (N) h The method comprises the steps of collecting equipment to be overhauled in the overhauling scene; c (C) ij Adopting maintenance cost of the maintenance grade j for the equipment i; p (P) m Is the average value of the m load curve; η (eta) m Is an index of importance to the user; m is M h The number of the users for planning the load loss; delta T h To plan maintenance time; c (C) h The unit load loss cost caused by the scheduled maintenance is reduced; m is M h,s And DeltaT h,s Respectively counting the number of unplanned load loss and the fault time caused by the fault state s of the shutdown equipment in the overhaul scene h; m is M 0,s And DeltaT 0,s The number of unplanned load loss and the fault time caused by the fault state s are respectively not considered in the maintenance scene h; p is p s Probability of occurrence for fault state s; c (C) s Is the unit load loss cost, N t To study the number of divided periods in a period S （t） And (5) collecting power grid faults in the t time period.
The specific calculation method of the fault risk comprises the following steps:
wherein: r is R F Is a fault risk of the power grid; r is R F1 For power network loss, R F2 Loss for the individual equipment; s (t) is a power grid fault set in a t time period, S is one fault type, and p s For its probability of occurrence; n (N) T The number of segments for the study period; m is M s Is the set of affected users under the condition of fault s; delta T s The power failure time caused by the fault s; p (P) m Is the average value of the m load curve; η (eta) m Is an index of importance to the user; c (C) s The unit load loss cost; n (N) s The method comprises the steps of collecting fault equipment under the condition of fault s; c (C) i,l The cost of troubleshooting a level l is adopted for the equipment i; n is the number of power grid devices; p (P) i 、Q i For normal operation and failure probability of device i, R F1,S For the loss of the electric network caused by the accident s, R F2,S Individual loss of equipment for the incident s.
And 7, evaluating and updating the yield.
The objective functions in the evaluation and updating of the yield are as follows:
max（Y），
wherein R is F_CBM To investigate the risk of grid faults in the case of status maintenance conditions implemented during a cycle,R F_original the method comprises the steps of (1) researching the risk of power grid faults when no state maintenance is implemented in a period; r is R M To study the overhaul risk in a certain overhaul scene in the period.
And 8, judging whether to stop the rule, if so, outputting the overhaul plan and ending, otherwise, performing genetic operation, and updating the overhaul scene through selection, intersection or variation.
Wherein the stopping rule is: when the maximum iteration times are reached or the fitness value of the optimal solution is not reduced within the given iteration times, optimizing is finished, and the overhaul scheme with the maximum fitness value is used as a decision result of the distribution network state overhaul.
And 9, judging whether constraint conditions are met, returning to the step 6 if the constraint conditions are met, otherwise, returning to the step 8.
The constraint conditions in the step 4 and the step 9 are the same, and the content is as follows:
1. and meanwhile, maintenance constraint: to avoid repeated power failure, equipment on the same line at the same interval needs to be overhauled at the same time.
2. Mutually exclusive overhaul constraints: in order to avoid overload of other devices caused by simultaneous overhaul of some devices, or equipment with mutual standby like a double-circuit line and two main transformers of the same transformer substation cannot be overhauled simultaneously.
3. Maintenance resource constraint: the overhaul capacity of the overhaul unit is limited in the same overhaul period, so the total number of overhaul equipment in the same period is also limited.
4. Grid safety constraints: the equipment can be withdrawn from operation due to equipment overhaul or faults, the operation mode of the power grid can be changed, the power flow distribution of the power grid can be changed, and the safety check of the line is required to meet the requirement that the voltage and the power are not out of limit.
It should be emphasized that the examples described herein are illustrative rather than limiting, and therefore the invention includes, but is not limited to, the examples described in the detailed description, as other embodiments derived from the technical solutions of the invention by a person skilled in the art are equally within the scope of the invention.
Claims (4)
1. The utility model provides a distribution equipment state overhauls method based on risk assessment which characterized in that: the method comprises the following steps:
step 1, randomly generating a population, wherein individuals in the population are an overhaul scheme;
step 2, judging whether the overhaul scheme meets constraint conditions, if so, carrying out step 3, otherwise, replacing individuals in the population;
step 3, calculating the overhaul risk and the fault risk of the distribution network in an overhaul scene, and taking the yield as an adaptability value corresponding to an overhaul scheme;
step 4, judging a state maintenance decision convergence criterion, and when the maximum iteration number is reached or the fitness value of the optimal solution is not reduced within the given iteration number, finishing the optimizing and taking a maintenance scheme with the maximum fitness value as a decision result of the distribution network state maintenance; otherwise, generating a new population by crossing and mutation and returning to the step 2.
2. The power distribution equipment state maintenance method based on risk assessment according to claim 1, wherein: the specific calculation method of the overhaul risk in the step 3 is as follows:
wherein R is M The maintenance risk of the distribution network is realized; r is R M1 For the maintenance cost of the equipment in the period t, R M2 For t period maintenance planning loss of load, R M3 For the random load loss in the t period, when no equipment maintenance is arranged in the period, the three values are all 0; n (N) h The method comprises the steps of collecting equipment to be overhauled in the overhauling scene; c (C) ij Adopting maintenance cost of the maintenance grade j for the equipment i; p (P) m Is the average value of the m load curve; η (eta) m Is an index of importance to the user; m is M h The number of the users for planning the load loss; delta T h To plan maintenance time; c (C) h The unit load loss cost caused by the scheduled maintenance is reduced; m is M h,s And DeltaT h,s Respectively, take account of and examineThe equipment is stopped in the repair scene h, and the number of unplanned load loss and the fault time caused by the fault state s are calculated; m is M 0,s And DeltaT 0,s The number of unplanned load loss and the fault time caused by the fault state s are respectively not considered in the maintenance scene h; p is p s Probability of occurrence for fault state s; c (C) s Is the unit load loss cost, N t To study the number of divided periods in a period S （t） And (5) collecting power grid faults in the t time period.
3. The power distribution equipment state maintenance method based on risk assessment according to claim 1, wherein: the specific calculation method of the fault risk in the step 3 is as follows:
wherein: r is R F Is a fault risk of the power grid; r is R F1 For power network loss, R F2 Loss for the individual equipment; s (t) is a power grid fault set in a t time period, S is one fault type, and p s For its probability of occurrence; n (N) T The number of segments for the study period; m is M s Is the set of affected users under the condition of fault s; delta T s The power failure time caused by the fault s; p (P) m Is the average value of the m load curve; η (eta) m Is an index of importance to the user; c (C) s The unit load loss cost; n (N) s The method comprises the steps of collecting fault equipment under the condition of fault s; c (C) i,l The cost of troubleshooting a level l is adopted for the equipment i; n is the number of power grid devices; p (P) i 、Q i For normal operation and failure probability of device i, R F1,S For the loss of the electric network caused by the accident s, R F2,S Individual loss of equipment for the incident s.
4. The power distribution equipment state maintenance method based on risk assessment according to claim 1, wherein: the concrete calculation method of the yield in the step 3 is as follows:
wherein R is F_CBM To study the risk of grid faults under the condition of implementing state maintenance in a period, R F_original The method comprises the steps of (1) researching the risk of power grid faults when no state maintenance is implemented in a period; r is R M To study the overhaul risk in a certain overhaul scene in the period.
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- 2023-04-19 CN CN202310416168.XA patent/CN116151808A/en active Pending
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| CN103400209A (en) * | 2013-04-18 | 2013-11-20 | 国家电网公司 | Optimization method of embodiment for overhauling power distribution network |
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