CN116151034B - Insulator core rod crisping prediction method, device, equipment and medium - Google Patents

Insulator core rod crisping prediction method, device, equipment and medium Download PDF

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CN116151034B
CN116151034B CN202310402944.0A CN202310402944A CN116151034B CN 116151034 B CN116151034 B CN 116151034B CN 202310402944 A CN202310402944 A CN 202310402944A CN 116151034 B CN116151034 B CN 116151034B
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insulator
core rod
disturbance
impact
target
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CN116151034A (en
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池小佳
肖建华
肖晓江
邢文忠
吴慰东
张建峰
林立鹏
陈衡涛
郑寅
李晓明
李秀标
胡冠球
熊鑫欣
先友前
刘滨涛
黄文驰
李暖群
陈冬沣
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Jieyang Power Supply Bureau of Guangdong Power Grid Co Ltd
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Jieyang Power Supply Bureau of Guangdong Power Grid Co Ltd
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    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06FELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
    • G06F30/00Computer-aided design [CAD]
    • G06F30/20Design optimisation, verification or simulation
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06QINFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/04Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem"
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06QINFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/06Electricity, gas or water supply
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06FELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
    • G06F2113/00Details relating to the application field
    • G06F2113/04Power grid distribution networks

Abstract

The invention discloses a method, a device, equipment and a medium for predicting the crispness of an insulator core rod. Comprising the following steps: according to a conventional environmental plug embrittlement model of the insulator and the type of a target insulator plug, a conventional embrittlement curve matched with the target insulator plug is established; obtaining the disturbance type, the disturbance start time and the disturbance end time of each effective disturbance event of the target insulator before the current moment, and calculating to obtain the disturbance correction quantity of the core rod of the target insulator; the method comprises the steps of obtaining the impact type, the action frequency and the impact time of each effective impact event of a target insulator before the current moment, and calculating to obtain the impact correction quantity of a core rod of the target insulator; and calculating the current mechanical strength of the core rod of the target insulator, and determining the core rod crisping degree of the target insulator according to the corresponding relation between the mechanical strength and the core rod crisping degree of the insulator. By adopting the technical scheme, the core rod shortness degree of the insulator can be predicted in real time, and the prediction precision is improved.

Description

Insulator core rod crisping prediction method, device, equipment and medium
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of power equipment detection, in particular to a method, a device, equipment and a medium for predicting insulator core rod shortness.
Background
The composite insulator is widely applied to power transmission lines due to the excellent mechanical property and anti-pollution flashover property. The composite insulator is used as an important component of the power transmission line, can directly influence the safe and stable operation of the whole power system, and the workload of daily operation and maintenance of the composite insulator is increased year by year along with the increase of the consumption of the composite insulator of the power grid system.
The composite insulator consists of a core rod structure and an umbrella skirt structure, wherein the core rod structure is a core component mainly bearing the stress load of a power transmission line, but is wrapped inside the umbrella skirt, and the evaluation of the crunching performance of the core rod is difficult to realize under the condition that the composite insulator is not damaged by external force. Meanwhile, the crisp evolution of the composite insulator core rod is influenced by a plurality of factors such as mechanical stress, electric effect, acid-base effect, environmental humidity and the like, the establishment of an algorithm model is complex, and the root cause of the lack of an effective composite insulator crisp evolution assessment method in the prior art scheme is also the same.
The evaluation of the core rod shortcircuit evolution of the composite insulator is difficult to realize at the present stage, the composite insulator broken string event caused by the shortcircuit and the shortcircuit break of the core rod in the power transmission line cannot be effectively predicted, a great amount of manpower and material resources are wasted in the power industry, and a great electric potential safety hazard exists.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a method, a device, equipment and a medium for predicting the core rod crispness of an insulator, which can predict the core rod crispness degree of the insulator in real time and improve the prediction precision.
According to an aspect of the present invention, there is provided a method for predicting insulator core rod embrittlement, comprising:
according to a conventional environmental plug embrittlement model of the insulator and the type of a target insulator plug, a conventional embrittlement curve matched with the target insulator plug is established;
obtaining the disturbance type, the disturbance start time and the disturbance end time of each effective disturbance event of the target insulator before the current moment, and calculating to obtain the disturbance correction quantity of the core rod of the target insulator according to the disturbance model of the insulator;
obtaining the impact type, the action times and the impact time of each effective impact event of the target insulator before the current moment, and calculating to obtain the impact correction quantity of the core rod of the target insulator according to the impact model of the insulator;
and calculating to obtain the current mechanical strength of the target insulator core rod according to the conventional embrittlement curve, the disturbance correction amount and the impact correction amount of the target insulator core rod, and determining the core rod embrittlement degree of the target insulator according to the corresponding relation between the mechanical strength and the insulator core rod embrittlement degree.
According to another aspect of the present invention, there is provided a prediction apparatus for insulator core rod embrittlement, comprising:
the conventional crisp curve building module is used for building a conventional crisp curve matched with a target insulator core rod according to a conventional environment core rod crisp model of the insulator and the type of the target insulator core rod;
the disturbance correction quantity calculation module is used for obtaining the disturbance type, the disturbance start time and the disturbance end time of each effective disturbance event of the target insulator before the current moment, and calculating to obtain the disturbance correction quantity of the core rod of the target insulator according to the disturbance model of the insulator;
the impact correction quantity calculation module is used for obtaining the impact type, the action times and the impact time of each effective impact event of the target insulator before the current moment, and calculating to obtain the impact correction quantity of the core rod of the target insulator according to the impact model of the insulator;
the core rod crisping degree prediction module is used for calculating to obtain the current mechanical strength of the target insulator core rod according to the conventional crisping curve, the disturbance correction amount and the impact correction amount of the target insulator core rod, and determining the core rod crisping degree of the target insulator according to the corresponding relation between the mechanical strength and the insulator core rod crisping degree.
According to another aspect of the present invention, there is provided an electronic apparatus including:
at least one processor; and
a memory communicatively coupled to the at least one processor; wherein, the liquid crystal display device comprises a liquid crystal display device,
the memory stores a computer program executable by the at least one processor to enable the at least one processor to perform the insulator mandrel shortfall prediction method of any one of the embodiments of the present invention.
According to another aspect of the present invention, there is provided a computer readable storage medium storing computer instructions for causing a processor to execute a method for predicting insulator mandrel embrittlement according to any one of the embodiments of the present invention.
According to the technical scheme, the conventional crisp curve matched with the target insulator core rod is established, the disturbance correction quantity and the impact correction quantity of the target insulator core rod are calculated, the current mechanical strength of the target insulator core rod is finally calculated, the core rod crisp degree of the target insulator is determined according to the mechanical strength, the influence of various abnormal conditions on the insulator core rod is fully considered, the crisp evolution of the insulator core rod can be evaluated on line, the service life of the insulator core rod can be evaluated in real time, the safe operation of the insulator can be guaranteed, and meanwhile resources are effectively saved.
It should be understood that the description in this section is not intended to identify key or critical features of the embodiments of the invention or to delineate the scope of the invention. Other features of the present invention will become apparent from the description that follows.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, the drawings required for the description of the embodiments will be briefly described below, and it is apparent that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and other drawings may be obtained according to these drawings without inventive effort for a person skilled in the art.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a method for predicting insulator core rod embrittlement according to a first embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a graph showing a prediction of insulator mandrel shortcuts according to a first embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 3 is a flowchart of another method for predicting insulator mandrel shortfall according to the second embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a flowchart of a conventional environmental plug shortbread model creation process according to a second embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 5 is a flow chart of a model creation and use process according to a second embodiment of the present invention;
Fig. 6 is a schematic structural diagram of a predicting device for insulator core rod embrittlement according to a third embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 7 is a schematic structural diagram of an electronic device for implementing a method for predicting insulator mandrel shortness according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order that those skilled in the art will better understand the present invention, a technical solution in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings in which it is apparent that the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present invention, not all embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be made by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the present invention without making any inventive effort, shall fall within the scope of the present invention.
It should be noted that the terms "first," "second," and the like in the description and the claims of the present invention and the above figures are used for distinguishing between similar objects and not necessarily for describing a particular sequential or chronological order. It is to be understood that the data so used may be interchanged where appropriate such that the embodiments of the invention described herein may be implemented in sequences other than those illustrated or otherwise described herein. Furthermore, the terms "comprises," "comprising," and "having," and any variations thereof, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, system, article, or apparatus that comprises a list of steps or elements is not necessarily limited to those steps or elements expressly listed but may include other steps or elements not expressly listed or inherent to such process, method, article, or apparatus.
Example 1
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a method for predicting core rod embrittlement of an insulator, which is provided in an embodiment of the present invention, and the embodiment is applicable to performing disturbance correction and impact correction on a conventional embrittlement curve of a target insulator core rod, and determining a core rod embrittlement degree of the target insulator according to a correction result. As shown in fig. 1, the method includes:
s110, establishing a conventional crisping curve matched with the target insulator core rod according to a conventional environment core rod crisping model of the insulator and the type of the target insulator core rod.
It should be noted that the present invention is applicable to insulators having a core rod and an umbrella skirt structure, and may be generally referred to as composite insulators.
The conventional environmental core rod embrittlement model of the insulator is a pre-established model, the conventional environmental core rod embrittlement model of the insulator can output a conventional embrittlement curve of the insulator under the condition of not being disturbed or impacted, and the conventional embrittlement curve output by the conventional environmental core rod embrittlement model of the insulator can be different for different types of insulator core rods.
The types of the insulator core rods can be divided according to the conditions of materials, sizes and the like, when the novel insulator core rods which are not used before are used, only the conventional environment core rod shortbread model of the existing insulator is required to be trained according to the novel insulator core rods, and the insulator core rods have good reusability.
Alternatively, the conventional crisp curve may represent the process that the standard mechanical strength of the insulator core rod is attenuated with the increase of the service time, and it is further understood that the standard mechanical strength of the insulator core rod is gradually reduced with the increase of the service time of the insulator core rod, and the conventional crisp curve is generally a smooth curve.
S120, obtaining the disturbance type, the disturbance start time and the disturbance end time of each effective disturbance event of the target insulator before the current moment, and calculating to obtain the disturbance correction quantity of the core rod of the target insulator according to the disturbance model of the insulator.
Optionally, the type of disturbance event of the insulator may be classified into abnormal temperature, abnormal humidity, abnormal ph, abnormal stress load, abnormal salt density, and the like.
Optionally, the disturbance type, the disturbance start time and the disturbance end time of each effective disturbance event of the target insulator before the current moment can be monitored and summarized in real time through devices such as a sensor, and technicians can check through background records.
Further, an effective disturbance threshold and a disturbance effective time threshold may be set for each type of disturbance event, and when the event value of the disturbance event is greater than the effective disturbance threshold matched with the disturbance event and the continuous time of the disturbance event is greater than the disturbance effective time threshold, the disturbance event is taken as an effective disturbance event.
Table 1 is an alternative effective disturbance event definition table. Taking table 1 as an example, when the insulator lasts for more than 10 days and the temperature is greater than 40 degrees, the abnormal change of the temperature in the duration period can be regarded as an effective disturbance event; when the humidity of the insulator is greater than or equal to 70% for more than 30 days, the abnormal change of the humidity in the duration period can be regarded as an effective disturbance event; when the PH value of the insulator lasts for more than 15 days and is less than 5.6, the abnormal change of the PH value in the duration period can be regarded as an effective disturbance event; when the salt density of the insulator lasts for more than 10 days and is more than 0.2mg/cm 2 Abnormal changes in salt density over this duration may be considered an effective disturbance event; when the insulator has a stress load greater than 0.6 for more than 10 days, then the abnormal change in stress load over this duration can be considered an effective disturbance event.
Figure SMS_1
The above description of the effective disturbance event is only used as an example, so that the present invention can be better understood, and the definition of the effective disturbance can be changed according to the actual requirement, for example, the judgment of the effective disturbance event can be performed only by depending on the event value of each disturbance event, and the effective disturbance threshold and the effective time threshold of each disturbance event can be changed according to the actual requirement, which is not limited herein.
The disturbance start time and the disturbance end time of the insulator can be obtained based on the service time of the insulator, for example, the start time of the abnormal temperature time is 1.5 years of the service time of the insulator, the end time is 1.6 years of the service time of the insulator, and the disturbance event of the insulator is generally sustainable, so that the disturbance start time and the disturbance end time of the disturbance event of the insulator are obtained, and the continuous time of the disturbance event of the insulator can be indirectly obtained.
The disturbance model of the insulator is a pre-established model, the disturbance model can comprise a plurality of sub-disturbance models, each sub-disturbance model can be matched with one type of disturbance event, after the disturbance start time and the disturbance end time of the disturbance event are input into the sub-disturbance model matched with the disturbance event, the disturbance correction quantity of the disturbance event can be output, and the disturbance correction quantity can be understood as the mechanical strength attenuation quantity of the insulator core rod under the disturbance event.
S130, obtaining the impact type, the action times and the impact time of each effective impact event of the target insulator before the current moment, and calculating to obtain the impact correction quantity of the core rod of the target insulator according to the impact model of the insulator.
Alternatively, the type of impact event of the insulator may be classified into a pollution flashover or partial discharge impact, a leakage current impact, a lightning strike current impact, and the like.
Optionally, the impact type, the action times and the impact time of each effective impact event of the target insulator before the current moment can be monitored and summarized in real time through devices such as a sensor, and a technician can check through background records.
Further, an effective impact threshold may be set for each type of impact event, and when the impact event has an event value greater than the effective impact threshold matched therewith, the impact event is taken as an effective impact event.
Table 2 is an alternative effective impact event definition table. Taking table 2 as an example, each impact event in table 2 may be an effective impact event as long as the primary event value is greater than the effective impact threshold. For example, when at least one flashover or partial discharge of the insulator occurs with a critical flashover current greater than 0.3, each flashover or partial discharge may be considered an effective impact event; when at least one leakage current of the insulator is larger than 50 mu A and the insulator is locally overheated, each current leakage can be regarded as an effective impact event; when at least one lightning strike event with the lightning withstand voltage of greater than or equal to 0.5 occurs in the insulator, each lightning strike event can be regarded as an effective impact event.
Figure SMS_2
The above description of the effective impact event is merely used as an example, so that the present invention can be better understood, and the definition of the effective impact event can be adaptively changed according to the actual situation based on the above example. For example, multiple impact events of the same type having an event value greater than the effective impact threshold over a certain period of time may be regarded as one effective impact event, or the effective impact threshold of each impact event may be modified according to actual needs, which is not limited herein.
The impact time of the impact event of the insulator can be acquired by taking the service time of the insulator as a reference, the impact model is a pre-established model, the impact model can comprise a plurality of sub-impact models, each sub-impact model can be matched with one type of impact event, and after the impact event of each impact event is input into the sub-impact model matched with the impact event, the impact correction quantity of the impact event can be output.
Wherein each sub-impact model may include a mechanical strength loss model and a mechanical strength self-recovery model, and the impact modifier may include a mechanical strength attenuation value of the target insulator core rod caused by the impact event and a mechanical strength self-recovery value of the target insulator core rod after the impact event.
The invention considers that the impact caused by the same disturbance event or impact event to the insulator core rod can be different along with the mechanical strength attenuation of the insulator core rod, so the invention respectively considers the disturbance action time and the impact action time when calculating the disturbance correction quantity and the impact correction quantity. However, the action time of the disturbance event and the impact event can be not considered, and the event values of the disturbance event and the impact event can be used as the input of the insulator disturbance model and the insulator impact model so as to realize that the event value of the insulator disturbance event is used as the influence factor of the disturbance correction amount and the event value of the insulator impact event is used as the influence factor of the impact correction amount.
And S140, calculating to obtain the current mechanical strength of the target insulator core rod according to the conventional embrittlement curve, the disturbance correction amount and the impact correction amount of the target insulator core rod, and determining the core rod embrittlement degree of the target insulator according to the corresponding relation between the mechanical strength and the insulator core rod embrittlement degree.
It will be appreciated that conventional fringing curves, turbulence corrections, and impact corrections may all reflect changes in the mechanical strength of the target insulator core. The disturbance correction amount only includes the mechanical strength attenuation value of the target insulator core rod caused by each disturbance event, and the impact correction amount may include the mechanical strength self-recovery value of the target insulator core rod after the impact event in addition to the mechanical strength attenuation value of the target insulator core rod caused by each impact event. Therefore, the current mechanical strength value of the target insulator can be obtained by correcting the conventional embrittlement curve of the core rod of the target insulator through the disturbance correction amount and the impact correction amount.
In one specific example, the formula may be:
Figure SMS_3
the current mechanical strength E of the target insulator core rod is calculated. Wherein E is A Represents the mechanical strength value of the target insulator core rod under the conventional crisp curve at the current moment,
Figure SMS_4
representing disturbance eventsLoss value of mechanical strength after action of part i, Z i For the event value of disturbance event i +.>
Figure SMS_5
For the duration of the disturbance event i +.>
Figure SMS_6
A disturbance correction amount E after the action of all n disturbance events before the current moment Impact j Loss of mechanical strength after impact event j, E Self-recovery j Self-recovery value of mechanical strength after action for impact event j +.>
Figure SMS_7
Impact correction amounts after the action for all m impact events before the current time.
Alternatively, the insulator core rod may be divided into high, medium, and low degrees of crispness, each degree of crispness being matched with a unique mechanical strength range of the insulator. For example, when the mechanical strength E of the insulator is 0.7 or more, the insulator core rod is low-degree crunched, when the mechanical strength E of the insulator is less than 0.7 and more than 0.5, the insulator core rod is medium-degree crunched, and when the mechanical strength E of the insulator is 0.5 or less, the insulator core rod is high-degree crunched.
Fig. 2 is a graph of an alternative insulator core rod embrittlement prediction. As shown in fig. 2, the vertical axis of the coordinate axis represents the mechanical strength E of the insulator core rod, and the horizontal axis of the coordinate axis represents the service time t, E of the insulator core rod A Represents the mechanical strength of the insulator core rod under the conventional shortenings curve,
Figure SMS_8
the method is characterized in that the method represents the disturbance correction amount of the insulator core rod after a disturbance event, the drop value is the mechanical strength loss value after the impact event at the position of an irregular U-shaped curve pointed by the impact event, the rise value is the mechanical strength self-recovery value after the impact event, and the difference between the mechanical strength loss value and the mechanical strength self-recovery value is the impact correction amount after the impact event. The disturbance correction quantity and the impact correction quantity are utilized to correct the conventional crisp curve in real time, thus obtainingTo the real-time mechanical strength value of the insulator core rod.
According to the technical scheme, the conventional crisp curve matched with the target insulator core rod is established, the disturbance correction quantity and the impact correction quantity of the target insulator core rod are calculated, the current mechanical strength of the target insulator core rod is finally calculated, the core rod crisp degree of the target insulator is determined according to the mechanical strength, the influence of various abnormal conditions on the insulator core rod is fully considered, the crisp evolution of the insulator core rod can be evaluated on line, the service life of the insulator core rod can be evaluated in real time, the safe operation of the insulator can be guaranteed, and meanwhile resources are effectively saved.
Example two
Fig. 3 is a flowchart of another method for predicting the core rod embrittlement of an insulator according to the second embodiment of the present invention, and the method for predicting the core rod embrittlement of an insulator is further described based on the above embodiment. As shown in fig. 3, the method includes:
s210, establishing a conventional crisping curve matched with the target insulator core rod according to a conventional environment core rod crisping model of the insulator and the type of the target insulator core rod.
S220, determining a target sub-disturbance model matched with the target effective disturbance event in the disturbance model of the insulator according to the disturbance type of the target effective disturbance event.
S230, calculating to obtain the mechanical strength loss value of the target effective disturbance event according to the disturbance start time, the disturbance end time and the target sub-disturbance model of the target effective disturbance event.
S240, calculating to obtain the disturbance correction quantity of the target insulator core rod according to the mechanical strength loss value of each effective disturbance event.
S250, determining a target sub-impact model matched with the target effective impact event in the impact models of the insulators according to the impact type of the target effective impact event.
And S260, calculating to obtain the impact loss value and the self-recovery value of the target effective impact event according to the action times, the impact time and the target sub-impact model of the target effective impact event.
S270, calculating and obtaining the impact correction quantity of the target insulator core rod according to the impact loss value and the self-recovery value of each effective impact event.
S280, calculating to obtain the current mechanical strength of the target insulator core rod according to the conventional embrittlement curve, the disturbance correction amount and the impact correction amount of the target insulator core rod, and determining the core rod embrittlement degree of the target insulator according to the corresponding relation between the mechanical strength and the insulator core rod embrittlement degree.
According to the technical scheme, the conventional crisp curve matched with the target insulator core rod is established, the disturbance correction quantity and the impact correction quantity of the target insulator core rod are calculated, the current mechanical strength of the target insulator core rod is finally calculated, the core rod crisp degree of the target insulator is determined according to the mechanical strength, the influence of various abnormal conditions on the insulator core rod is fully considered, the crisp evolution of the insulator core rod can be evaluated on line, the service life of the insulator core rod can be evaluated in real time, the safe operation of the insulator can be guaranteed, and meanwhile resources are effectively saved.
Further, before the conventional embrittlement curve of the target insulator core rod is established according to the conventional environmental core rod embrittlement model of the insulator, the method further comprises the following steps:
Obtaining simulation experiment sample data of a standard insulator core rod in a conventional environment and collecting the sample data on site;
the standard insulator core rod comprises mechanical strength of the insulator core rod at a plurality of sample acquisition moments in each sample data under a conventional environment;
dividing simulation experiment sample data of a standard insulator core rod in a conventional environment into conventional environment training samples and conventional environment test samples;
performing repeated iterative training by using a conventional environment training sample, and generating a conventional environment mandrel shortbread basic model according to a training result;
performing primary algorithm correction on the conventional environment mandrel shortcircuit basic model after iterative training by using a conventional environment test sample;
after the primary algorithm correction is completed, the sample data collected by the standard insulator core rod in the field under the conventional environment is utilized to carry out secondary correction on the conventional environment core rod embrittlement basic model, and the result after the secondary correction is used as a final conventional environment core rod embrittlement model.
The standard insulator core rod can be used as an insulator core rod which is used for sample collection and accords with the use standard, the conventional environment can be an environment which is not interfered by disturbance events and impact events, and the sample collection time can be determined according to actual requirements, such as once per half year, once per year, and the like.
The conventional environment core rod crisp basic model is a preliminary model obtained by performing repeated iterative training by using a conventional environment training sample, and the model is not corrected.
Alternatively, the simulation test sample of the standard insulator core rod under the conventional environment may be divided into the conventional environment training sample and the conventional environment test sample according to the corresponding proportion, for example, 80% of the simulation test sample may be selected as the conventional environment training sample, and the remaining 20% of the simulation sample may be selected as the conventional environment test sample.
Alternatively, a conventional ambient mandrel crunching model of an insulator may be
Figure SMS_9
Wherein E is the mechanical strength, W, of the insulator core rod output by the model E Represents the weight, X represents the data set established from the conventional environmental training samples, b E Representing a paranoid item.
FIG. 4 is a flow chart of an alternative conventional environmental plug shortfall model creation process, as shown in FIG. 4, A 1 And after the model is initially established by using the simulation experiment sample of the standard insulator core rod in the conventional environment, establishing a residual sequence by using the field acquisition sample in the conventional environment, and performing secondary correction by using the residual sequence.
The method for performing secondary correction on the conventional environmental core rod shortenings basic model by utilizing field collected sample data of the standard insulator core rod in the conventional environment, and taking the result after the secondary correction as a final established conventional environmental core rod shortenings model can specifically comprise the following steps:
acquiring sample data and a conventional environmental core rod embrittlement basic model according to the field of a standard insulator core rod in a conventional environment, and acquiring a residual sequence of core rod embrittlement;
dividing the residual sequence of the core rod crisping into residual training samples and residual testing samples;
obtaining optimal parameters of a conventional environmental crisp basic model according to the residual error training sample, and carrying out secondary correction on the conventional environmental crisp basic model according to the optimal parameters;
and grading the conventional environmental crisp basic model after the secondary correction according to the residual error test sample, and taking the conventional environmental crisp basic model after the secondary correction as a conventional environmental core rod crisp model finally established if the grading of the conventional environmental crisp basic model after the secondary correction is larger than a preset grading threshold value.
Further, if the score of the conventional environmental crisp basic model after the secondary correction is smaller than or equal to a preset score threshold, the conventional environmental crisp basic model is subjected to secondary correction again.
The residual sequence of the mandrel shortenings can comprise a difference value between the mechanical strength of each acquisition time point in the field acquisition sample and the mechanical strength of the conventional environment mandrel shortenings basic model at the corresponding time point.
Optionally, the residual sequence of the mandrel shortcuts may be divided into residual training samples and residual test samples according to the corresponding proportion.
Further, before the conventional embrittlement curve of the target insulator core rod is established according to the conventional environmental core rod embrittlement model of the insulator, the method further comprises the following steps:
acquiring sample data of a standard insulator core rod under the action of different types of disturbance events;
the standard insulator core rod comprises each disturbance starting time, each disturbance ending time, each disturbance value and the mechanical strength of the standard insulator core rod after each disturbance event;
dividing sample data of a standard insulator core rod under the action of a target disturbance event into disturbance sample data under each natural year according to the natural year, and acquiring disturbance action time under each natural year according to each disturbance start time and each disturbance termination time;
Fitting the disturbance value and disturbance action time of the target disturbance event in each natural year and the mechanical strength of the standard insulator core rod after the last target disturbance event in the natural year, and generating a sub-disturbance model matched with the type of the target disturbance event according to the fitting result;
and acquiring each sub-disturbance model which is matched with each type of disturbance event respectively, and combining each sub-disturbance model to form a disturbance model.
Optionally, the disturbance acting time is a continuous time within a period from a disturbance start time to a disturbance end time.
Alternatively, sample data of the standard insulator core rod under the action of the target disturbance event can be divided according to various forms such as month, day and the like.
Further, before the conventional embrittlement curve of the target insulator core rod is established according to the conventional environmental core rod embrittlement model of the insulator, the method further comprises the following steps:
obtaining simulation experiment sample data of a standard insulator core rod under the action of different types of impact events and collecting the sample data on site;
the standard insulator core rod comprises impact time of each impact, a mechanical strength loss value of the insulator core rod after each impact and a mechanical strength self-recovery value in each sample data under the action of each type of impact event;
Fitting the impact time of each impact, the mechanical strength loss value of the standard insulator core rod after each impact and the mechanical strength self-recovery value in the simulation experiment sample data of the standard insulator core rod under the action of the target impact event, and generating a sub-impact model matched with the target impact event according to the fitting result;
wherein the sub-impact model comprises a mechanical strength loss model
Figure SMS_10
Mechanical strength self-recovery model>
Figure SMS_11
T is the impact time of each impact, x 1 、x 2、 x 3、 x 4、 x 5 X 6 Is a sub-impact model parameter;
and acquiring each sub-impact model which is respectively matched with each type of impact event, and combining the sub-impact models to form an impact model.
According to the invention, the fact that the field samples of the impact event are relatively deficient is considered, so that the simulation experiment data is selected to train the sub-impact model, and after the simulation experiment sample data is utilized to train for the first time, the sample data collected on the field can be selected to correct each sub-impact model, so that the accuracy of the impact model is improved.
FIG. 5 is a flow chart of an alternative model creation and use process, shown in FIG. 5, A 1 A is a simulation experiment sample of a standard insulator core rod in a conventional environment 2 The method is characterized in that samples are collected on site of the standard insulator core rod under the conventional environment, B, C, D, E, F is sample data of the standard insulator core rod under the action of different types of disturbance events respectively, and G 1 、H 1 、I 1 Respectively the simulation experiment sample data of the standard insulator core rod under the action of different types of impact events, G 2 、H 2 、I 2 Sample data are collected on site for standard insulator mandrels under the action of different types of impact events, respectively. After the conventional environment core rod embrittlement model, the disturbance model and the impact model are respectively established by using the sample data, the conventional environment core rod embrittlement model, the disturbance model and the impact model can be used for predicting the degree of insulator embrittlement.
The method has the advantages that according to the characteristics of different disturbance factors and impact factors, an independent model is established, and the method of combining output prediction based on original sample data and secondary correction based on residual errors is adopted, so that the high-accuracy prediction output of a model algorithm can be realized.
Example III
Fig. 6 is a schematic structural diagram of a predicting device for insulator core rod embrittlement according to a third embodiment of the present invention. As shown in fig. 6, the apparatus includes: a conventional fringing curve establishment module 310, a disturbance correction amount calculation module 320, an impact correction amount calculation module 330 and a mandrel fringing degree prediction module 340.
The conventional crisp curve building module 310 is configured to build a conventional crisp curve matched with a target insulator core rod according to a conventional environmental core rod crisp model of the insulator and a type of the target insulator core rod.
The disturbance correction amount calculation module 320 is configured to obtain a disturbance type, a disturbance start time, and a disturbance end time of each effective disturbance event of the target insulator before the current moment, and calculate a disturbance correction amount of the core rod of the target insulator according to the disturbance model of the insulator.
The impact correction amount calculation module 330 is configured to obtain the impact type, the number of times of action, and the impact time of each effective impact event of the target insulator before the current moment, and calculate the impact correction amount of the core rod of the target insulator according to the impact model of the insulator.
The core rod crisping degree prediction module 340 is configured to calculate, according to a conventional crisping curve, a disturbance correction amount, and an impact correction amount of the target insulator core rod, obtain a current mechanical strength of the target insulator core rod, and determine a core rod crisping degree of the target insulator according to a correspondence between the mechanical strength and the insulator core rod crisping degree.
According to the technical scheme, the conventional crisp curve matched with the target insulator core rod is established, the disturbance correction quantity and the impact correction quantity of the target insulator core rod are calculated, the current mechanical strength of the target insulator core rod is finally calculated, the core rod crisp degree of the target insulator is determined according to the mechanical strength, the influence of various abnormal conditions on the insulator core rod is fully considered, the crisp evolution of the insulator core rod can be evaluated on line, the service life of the insulator core rod can be evaluated in real time, the safe operation of the insulator can be guaranteed, and meanwhile resources are effectively saved.
On the basis of the above embodiments, the method may further include a conventional environmental mandrel crunching model building module, which is specifically configured to:
obtaining simulation experiment sample data of a standard insulator core rod in a conventional environment and collecting the sample data on site;
the standard insulator core rod comprises mechanical strength of the insulator core rod at a plurality of sample acquisition moments in each sample data under a conventional environment;
dividing simulation experiment sample data of a standard insulator core rod in a conventional environment into conventional environment training samples and conventional environment test samples;
performing repeated iterative training by using a conventional environment training sample, and generating a conventional environment mandrel shortbread basic model according to a training result;
performing primary algorithm correction on the conventional environment mandrel shortcircuit basic model after iterative training by using a conventional environment test sample;
after the primary algorithm correction is completed, the sample data collected by the standard insulator core rod in the field under the conventional environment is utilized to carry out secondary correction on the conventional environment core rod embrittlement basic model, and the result after the secondary correction is used as a final conventional environment core rod embrittlement model.
On the basis of the above embodiments, the conventional environmental plug shortbread model building module is further configured to:
Acquiring sample data and a conventional environmental core rod embrittlement basic model according to the field of a standard insulator core rod in a conventional environment, and acquiring a residual sequence of core rod embrittlement;
dividing the residual sequence of the core rod crisping into residual training samples and residual testing samples;
obtaining optimal parameters of a conventional environmental crisp basic model according to the residual error training sample, and carrying out secondary correction on the conventional environmental crisp basic model according to the optimal parameters;
and grading the conventional environmental crisp basic model after the secondary correction according to the residual error test sample, and taking the conventional environmental crisp basic model after the secondary correction as a conventional environmental core rod crisp model finally established if the grading of the conventional environmental crisp basic model after the secondary correction is larger than a preset grading threshold value.
On the basis of the above embodiments, the system may further include a disturbance model building module, specifically configured to:
acquiring sample data of a standard insulator core rod under the action of different types of disturbance events;
the standard insulator core rod comprises each disturbance starting time, each disturbance ending time, each disturbance value and the mechanical strength of the standard insulator core rod after each disturbance event;
Dividing sample data of a standard insulator core rod under the action of a target disturbance event into disturbance sample data under each natural year according to the natural year, and acquiring disturbance action time under each natural year according to each disturbance start time and each disturbance termination time;
fitting the disturbance value and disturbance action time of the target disturbance event in each natural year and the mechanical strength of the standard insulator core rod after the last target disturbance event in the natural year, and generating a sub-disturbance model matched with the type of the target disturbance event according to the fitting result;
and acquiring each sub-disturbance model which is matched with each type of disturbance event respectively, and combining each sub-disturbance model to form a disturbance model.
On the basis of the above embodiments, the impact model building module may further include an impact model building module, specifically configured to:
obtaining simulation experiment sample data of a standard insulator core rod under the action of different types of impact events and collecting the sample data on site;
the standard insulator core rod comprises impact time of each impact, a mechanical strength loss value of the insulator core rod after each impact and a mechanical strength self-recovery value in each sample data under the action of each type of impact event;
Fitting the impact time of each impact, the mechanical strength loss value of the standard insulator core rod after each impact and the mechanical strength self-recovery value in the simulation experiment sample data of the standard insulator core rod under the action of the target impact event, and generating a sub-impact model matched with the target impact event according to the fitting result;
wherein the sub-impact model comprises a mechanical strength loss model
Figure SMS_12
Mechanical strength self-recovery model>
Figure SMS_13
T is the impact time of each impact, x 1 、x 2、 x 3、 x 4、 x 5 X 6 Is a sub-impact model parameter;
and acquiring each sub-impact model which is respectively matched with each type of impact event, and combining the sub-impact models to form an impact model.
Based on the above embodiments, the disturbance correction amount calculation module 320 may specifically be configured to:
determining a target sub-disturbance model matched with the target effective disturbance event in the disturbance model of the insulator according to the disturbance type of the target effective disturbance event;
calculating to obtain a mechanical strength loss value of the target effective disturbance event according to the disturbance start time, the disturbance end time and the target sub-disturbance model of the target effective disturbance event;
and calculating to obtain the disturbance correction quantity of the target insulator core rod according to the mechanical strength loss value of each effective disturbance event.
Based on the above embodiments, the impact correction amount calculation module 330 may specifically be configured to:
determining a target sub-impact model matched with the target effective impact event in the impact model of the insulator according to the impact type of the target effective impact event;
according to the action times, the impact time and the target sub-impact model of the target effective impact event, calculating to obtain an impact loss value and a self-recovery value of the target effective impact event;
and calculating according to the impact loss value and the self-recovery value of each effective impact event to obtain the impact correction quantity of the target insulator core rod.
The prediction device for the insulator core rod shortness provided by the embodiment of the invention can execute the prediction method for the insulator core rod shortness provided by any embodiment of the invention, and has the corresponding functional modules and beneficial effects of the execution method.
Example IV
Fig. 7 shows a schematic diagram of the structure of an electronic device 10 that may be used to implement an embodiment of the invention. Electronic devices are intended to represent various forms of digital computers, such as laptops, desktops, workstations, personal digital assistants, servers, blade servers, mainframes, and other appropriate computers. Electronic equipment may also represent various forms of mobile devices, such as personal digital processing, cellular telephones, smartphones, wearable devices (e.g., helmets, glasses, watches, etc.), and other similar computing devices. The components shown herein, their connections and relationships, and their functions, are meant to be exemplary only, and are not meant to limit implementations of the inventions described and/or claimed herein.
As shown in fig. 7, the electronic device 10 includes at least one processor 11, and a memory, such as a Read Only Memory (ROM) 12, a Random Access Memory (RAM) 13, etc., communicatively connected to the at least one processor 11, in which the memory stores a computer program executable by the at least one processor, and the processor 11 may perform various appropriate actions and processes according to the computer program stored in the Read Only Memory (ROM) 12 or the computer program loaded from the storage unit 18 into the Random Access Memory (RAM) 13. In the RAM 13, various programs and data required for the operation of the electronic device 10 may also be stored. The processor 11, the ROM 12 and the RAM 13 are connected to each other via a bus 14. An input/output (I/O) interface 15 is also connected to bus 14.
Various components in the electronic device 10 are connected to the I/O interface 15, including: an input unit 16 such as a keyboard, a mouse, etc.; an output unit 17 such as various types of displays, speakers, and the like; a storage unit 18 such as a magnetic disk, an optical disk, or the like; and a communication unit 19 such as a network card, modem, wireless communication transceiver, etc. The communication unit 19 allows the electronic device 10 to exchange information/data with other devices via a computer network, such as the internet, and/or various telecommunication networks.
The processor 11 may be a variety of general and/or special purpose processing components having processing and computing capabilities. Some examples of processor 11 include, but are not limited to, a Central Processing Unit (CPU), a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU), various specialized Artificial Intelligence (AI) computing chips, various processors running machine learning model algorithms, digital Signal Processors (DSPs), and any suitable processor, controller, microcontroller, etc. The processor 11 performs the various methods and processes described above, such as the insulator core rod embrittlement prediction method as described in the embodiments of the present invention. Namely:
according to a conventional environmental plug embrittlement model of the insulator and the type of a target insulator plug, a conventional embrittlement curve matched with the target insulator plug is established;
obtaining the disturbance type, the disturbance start time and the disturbance end time of each effective disturbance event of the target insulator before the current moment, and calculating to obtain the disturbance correction quantity of the core rod of the target insulator according to the disturbance model of the insulator;
obtaining the impact type, the action times and the impact time of each effective impact event of the target insulator before the current moment, and calculating to obtain the impact correction quantity of the core rod of the target insulator according to the impact model of the insulator;
And calculating to obtain the current mechanical strength of the target insulator core rod according to the conventional embrittlement curve, the disturbance correction amount and the impact correction amount of the target insulator core rod, and determining the core rod embrittlement degree of the target insulator according to the corresponding relation between the mechanical strength and the insulator core rod embrittlement degree.
In some embodiments, the method of predicting insulator mandrel fringing may be implemented as a computer program tangibly embodied on a computer-readable storage medium, such as the storage unit 18. In some embodiments, part or all of the computer program may be loaded and/or installed onto the electronic device 10 via the ROM 12 and/or the communication unit 19. When the computer program is loaded into RAM 13 and executed by processor 11, one or more steps of the insulator mandrel shortfall prediction method described above may be performed. Alternatively, in other embodiments, the processor 11 may be configured to perform the method of predicting insulator mandrel shortcuts in any other suitable manner (e.g., by means of firmware).
Various implementations of the systems and techniques described here above may be implemented in digital electronic circuitry, integrated circuit systems, field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs), application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs), application Specific Standard Products (ASSPs), systems On Chip (SOCs), load programmable logic devices (CPLDs), computer hardware, firmware, software, and/or combinations thereof. These various embodiments may include: implemented in one or more computer programs, the one or more computer programs may be executed and/or interpreted on a programmable system including at least one programmable processor, which may be a special purpose or general-purpose programmable processor, that may receive data and instructions from, and transmit data and instructions to, a storage system, at least one input device, and at least one output device.
A computer program for carrying out methods of the present invention may be written in any combination of one or more programming languages. These computer programs may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, or other programmable data processing apparatus, such that the computer programs, when executed by the processor, cause the functions/acts specified in the flowchart and/or block diagram block or blocks to be implemented. The computer program may execute entirely on the machine, partly on the machine, as a stand-alone software package, partly on the machine and partly on a remote machine or entirely on the remote machine or server.
In the context of the present invention, a computer-readable storage medium may be a tangible medium that can contain, or store a computer program for use by or in connection with an instruction execution system, apparatus, or device. The computer readable storage medium may include, but is not limited to, an electronic, magnetic, optical, electromagnetic, infrared, or semiconductor system, apparatus, or device, or any suitable combination of the foregoing. Alternatively, the computer readable storage medium may be a machine readable signal medium. More specific examples of a machine-readable storage medium would include an electrical connection based on one or more wires, a portable computer diskette, a hard disk, a Random Access Memory (RAM), a read-only memory (ROM), an erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or flash memory), an optical fiber, a portable compact disc read-only memory (CD-ROM), an optical storage device, a magnetic storage device, or any suitable combination of the foregoing.
To provide for interaction with a user, the systems and techniques described here can be implemented on an electronic device having: a display device (e.g., a CRT (cathode ray tube) or LCD (liquid crystal display) monitor) for displaying information to a user; and a keyboard and a pointing device (e.g., a mouse or a trackball) through which a user can provide input to the electronic device. Other kinds of devices may also be used to provide for interaction with a user; for example, feedback provided to the user may be any form of sensory feedback (e.g., visual feedback, auditory feedback, or tactile feedback); and input from the user may be received in any form, including acoustic input, speech input, or tactile input.
The systems and techniques described here can be implemented in a computing system that includes a background component (e.g., as a data server), or that includes a middleware component (e.g., an application server), or that includes a front-end component (e.g., a user computer having a graphical user interface or a web browser through which a user can interact with an implementation of the systems and techniques described here), or any combination of such background, middleware, or front-end components. The components of the system can be interconnected by any form or medium of digital data communication (e.g., a communication network). Examples of communication networks include: local Area Networks (LANs), wide Area Networks (WANs), blockchain networks, and the internet.
The computing system may include clients and servers. The client and server are typically remote from each other and typically interact through a communication network. The relationship of client and server arises by virtue of computer programs running on the respective computers and having a client-server relationship to each other. The server can be a cloud server, also called a cloud computing server or a cloud host, and is a host product in a cloud computing service system, so that the defects of high management difficulty and weak service expansibility in the traditional physical hosts and VPS service are overcome.
It should be appreciated that various forms of the flows shown above may be used to reorder, add, or delete steps. For example, the steps described in the present invention may be performed in parallel, sequentially, or in a different order, so long as the desired results of the technical solution of the present invention are achieved, and the present invention is not limited herein.
The above embodiments do not limit the scope of the present invention. It will be apparent to those skilled in the art that various modifications, combinations, sub-combinations and alternatives are possible, depending on design requirements and other factors. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions and improvements made within the spirit and principles of the present invention should be included in the scope of the present invention.

Claims (9)

1. The method for predicting the crispness of the insulator core rod is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
according to a conventional environmental plug embrittlement model of the insulator and the type of a target insulator plug, a conventional embrittlement curve matched with the target insulator plug is established;
obtaining the disturbance type, the disturbance start time and the disturbance end time of each effective disturbance event of the target insulator before the current moment, and calculating to obtain the disturbance correction quantity of the core rod of the target insulator according to the disturbance model of the insulator;
obtaining the impact type, the action times and the impact time of each effective impact event of the target insulator before the current moment, and calculating to obtain the impact correction quantity of the core rod of the target insulator according to the impact model of the insulator;
calculating to obtain the current mechanical strength of the target insulator core rod according to the conventional crisping curve, the disturbance correction amount and the impact correction amount of the target insulator core rod, and determining the core rod crisping degree of the target insulator according to the corresponding relation between the mechanical strength and the insulator core rod crisping degree;
before the conventional embrittlement curve of the target insulator core rod is established according to the conventional environmental core rod embrittlement model of the insulator, the method further comprises the following steps:
Obtaining simulation experiment sample data of a standard insulator core rod in a conventional environment and collecting the sample data on site;
the standard insulator core rod comprises mechanical strength of the insulator core rod at a plurality of sample acquisition moments in each sample data under a conventional environment;
dividing simulation experiment sample data of a standard insulator core rod in a conventional environment into conventional environment training samples and conventional environment test samples;
performing repeated iterative training by using a conventional environment training sample, and generating a conventional environment mandrel shortbread basic model according to a training result;
performing primary algorithm correction on the conventional environment mandrel shortcircuit basic model after iterative training by using a conventional environment test sample;
after the primary algorithm correction is completed, the sample data collected by the standard insulator core rod in the field under the conventional environment is utilized to carry out secondary correction on the conventional environment core rod embrittlement basic model, and the result after the secondary correction is used as a final conventional environment core rod embrittlement model.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein performing secondary correction on the conventional environmental plug shorthand basic model by using sample data collected by the standard insulator plug in the field under the conventional environment, and using the result after the secondary correction as a final established conventional environmental plug shorthand model, comprises:
Acquiring sample data and a conventional environmental core rod embrittlement basic model according to the field of a standard insulator core rod in a conventional environment, and acquiring a residual sequence of core rod embrittlement;
dividing the residual sequence of the core rod crisping into residual training samples and residual testing samples;
obtaining optimal parameters of a conventional environmental crisp basic model according to the residual error training sample, and carrying out secondary correction on the conventional environmental crisp basic model according to the optimal parameters;
and grading the conventional environmental crisp basic model after the secondary correction according to the residual error test sample, and taking the conventional environmental crisp basic model after the secondary correction as a conventional environmental core rod crisp model finally established if the grading of the conventional environmental crisp basic model after the secondary correction is larger than a preset grading threshold value.
3. The method of claim 1, further comprising, prior to establishing a conventional fringing curve for the target insulator mandrel based on a conventional ambient mandrel fringing model of the insulator:
acquiring sample data of a standard insulator core rod under the action of different types of disturbance events;
the standard insulator core rod comprises each disturbance starting time, each disturbance ending time, each disturbance value and the mechanical strength of the standard insulator core rod after each disturbance event;
Dividing sample data of a standard insulator core rod under the action of a target disturbance event into disturbance sample data under each natural year according to the natural year, and acquiring disturbance action time under each natural year according to each disturbance start time and each disturbance termination time;
fitting the disturbance value and disturbance action time of the target disturbance event in each natural year and the mechanical strength of the standard insulator core rod after the last target disturbance event in the natural year, and generating a sub-disturbance model matched with the type of the target disturbance event according to the fitting result;
and acquiring each sub-disturbance model which is matched with each type of disturbance event respectively, and combining each sub-disturbance model to form a disturbance model.
4. The method of claim 1, further comprising, prior to establishing a conventional fringing curve for the target insulator mandrel based on a conventional ambient mandrel fringing model of the insulator:
obtaining simulation experiment sample data of a standard insulator core rod under the action of different types of impact events and collecting the sample data on site;
the standard insulator core rod comprises impact time of each impact, a mechanical strength loss value of the insulator core rod after each impact and a mechanical strength self-recovery value in each sample data under the action of each type of impact event;
Fitting the impact time of each impact, the mechanical strength loss value of the standard insulator core rod after each impact and the mechanical strength self-recovery value in the simulation experiment sample data of the standard insulator core rod under the action of the target impact event, and generating a sub-impact model matched with the target impact event according to the fitting result;
wherein the sub-impact model comprises a mechanical strength loss model
Figure QLYQS_1
Mechanical strength self-recovery model
Figure QLYQS_2
T is the impact time of each impact, x 1 、x 2、 x 3、 x 4、 x 5 X 6 Is a sub-impact model parameter;
and acquiring each sub-impact model which is respectively matched with each type of impact event, and combining the sub-impact models to form an impact model.
5. The method of claim 3, wherein obtaining a disturbance type, a disturbance start time, and a disturbance end time of each effective disturbance event of the target insulator before the current time, and calculating a disturbance correction amount of the core rod of the target insulator according to a disturbance model of the insulator, comprises:
determining a target sub-disturbance model matched with the target effective disturbance event in the disturbance model of the insulator according to the disturbance type of the target effective disturbance event;
calculating to obtain a mechanical strength loss value of the target effective disturbance event according to the disturbance start time, the disturbance end time and the target sub-disturbance model of the target effective disturbance event;
And calculating to obtain the disturbance correction quantity of the target insulator core rod according to the mechanical strength loss value of each effective disturbance event.
6. The method of claim 4, wherein obtaining the number of times each effective impact event is applied and the impact time, and calculating the impact correction of the target insulator mandrel based on the impact model of the insulator, comprises:
determining a target sub-impact model matched with the target effective impact event in the impact model of the insulator according to the impact type of the target effective impact event;
according to the action times, the impact time and the target sub-impact model of the target effective impact event, calculating to obtain an impact loss value and a self-recovery value of the target effective impact event;
and calculating according to the impact loss value and the self-recovery value of each effective impact event to obtain the impact correction quantity of the target insulator core rod.
7. The utility model provides a prediction unit of insulator plug shortbread which characterized in that includes:
the conventional crisp curve building module is used for building a conventional crisp curve matched with a target insulator core rod according to a conventional environment core rod crisp model of the insulator and the type of the target insulator core rod;
the disturbance correction quantity calculation module is used for obtaining the disturbance type, the disturbance start time and the disturbance end time of each effective disturbance event of the target insulator before the current moment, and calculating to obtain the disturbance correction quantity of the core rod of the target insulator according to the disturbance model of the insulator;
The impact correction quantity calculation module is used for obtaining the impact type, the action times and the impact time of each effective impact event of the target insulator before the current moment, and calculating to obtain the impact correction quantity of the core rod of the target insulator according to the impact model of the insulator;
the core rod crisping degree prediction module is used for calculating to obtain the current mechanical strength of the target insulator core rod according to the conventional crisping curve, the disturbance correction amount and the impact correction amount of the target insulator core rod, and determining the core rod crisping degree of the target insulator according to the corresponding relation between the mechanical strength and the insulator core rod crisping degree;
the insulator core rod crisping prediction device further comprises a conventional environment core rod crisping model building module, and the insulator core rod crisping prediction device is specifically used for:
obtaining simulation experiment sample data of a standard insulator core rod in a conventional environment and collecting the sample data on site;
the standard insulator core rod comprises mechanical strength of the insulator core rod at a plurality of sample acquisition moments in each sample data under a conventional environment;
dividing simulation experiment sample data of a standard insulator core rod in a conventional environment into conventional environment training samples and conventional environment test samples;
Performing repeated iterative training by using a conventional environment training sample, and generating a conventional environment mandrel shortbread basic model according to a training result;
performing primary algorithm correction on the conventional environment mandrel shortcircuit basic model after iterative training by using a conventional environment test sample;
after the primary algorithm correction is completed, the sample data collected by the standard insulator core rod in the field under the conventional environment is utilized to carry out secondary correction on the conventional environment core rod embrittlement basic model, and the result after the secondary correction is used as a final conventional environment core rod embrittlement model.
8. An electronic device, the electronic device comprising:
at least one processor; and
a memory communicatively coupled to the at least one processor; wherein, the liquid crystal display device comprises a liquid crystal display device,
the memory stores a computer program executable by the at least one processor to enable the at least one processor to perform the method of predicting insulator core rod fringing of any one of claims 1-6.
9. A computer readable storage medium storing computer instructions for causing a processor to execute the method of predicting insulator mandrel shortcuts of any one of claims 1-6.
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