CN116147587B - Wave prediction method and wave measurement system - Google Patents
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- G—PHYSICS
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- G01C—MEASURING DISTANCES, LEVELS OR BEARINGS; SURVEYING; NAVIGATION; GYROSCOPIC INSTRUMENTS; PHOTOGRAMMETRY OR VIDEOGRAMMETRY
- G01C13/00—Surveying specially adapted to open water, e.g. sea, lake, river or canal
- G01C13/002—Measuring the movement of open water
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- G01F—MEASURING VOLUME, VOLUME FLOW, MASS FLOW OR LIQUID LEVEL; METERING BY VOLUME
- G01F23/00—Indicating or measuring liquid level or level of fluent solid material, e.g. indicating in terms of volume or indicating by means of an alarm
- G01F23/22—Indicating or measuring liquid level or level of fluent solid material, e.g. indicating in terms of volume or indicating by means of an alarm by measuring physical variables, other than linear dimensions, pressure or weight, dependent on the level to be measured, e.g. by difference of heat transfer of steam or water
- G01F23/28—Indicating or measuring liquid level or level of fluent solid material, e.g. indicating in terms of volume or indicating by means of an alarm by measuring physical variables, other than linear dimensions, pressure or weight, dependent on the level to be measured, e.g. by difference of heat transfer of steam or water by measuring the variations of parameters of electromagnetic or acoustic waves applied directly to the liquid or fluent solid material
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Abstract
The invention provides a wave prediction method and a wave measurement system, which belong to the technical field of ocean engineering, wherein the prediction method comprises signal acquisition, data processing, model establishment, data correction and layout decision; the measuring system comprises the PLC touch screen, the signal processing board, the alarm indicator lamp and the radar liquid level sensor, wave spectrum data in 15s pushed backwards at the current moment can be accurately predicted, the submarine retraction time with stable sea conditions can be accurately found according to future wave trend, decision and execution time are reserved for the submarine retraction operation of operators, collision between the submarine and a mother ship caused by sudden wave motion in the submarine retraction operation process is avoided, the accident probability of offshore submarine retraction is effectively reduced, the safety of offshore operation is improved, the measuring and predicting precision is high, and the measuring system has strong practicability.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of ocean engineering, and particularly relates to a wave prediction method and a wave measurement system.
Background
Various marine boats and unmanned submarines are important tools for developing the ocean by human beings, and the retraction system plays a decisive role in the retraction operation safety of the boats and the unmanned submarines as important matched equipment, and due to the influence of waves, when the sea conditions are severe, relative motions exist among the boats, the unmanned submarines and the mother ship, and the relative motions enable the boats (or the submarines) to collide with the mother ship during retraction, and even the lifting cables are broken when the conditions are severe, so that the boats (or the submarines) and the mother ship are damaged, and safety accidents are caused. Therefore, when various marine boats and unmanned submersible vehicles are retracted and released, the current wave condition is required to be mastered to judge the safety of the operation, and a wave measuring device is required to acquire the wave condition to assist the retraction and release operation decision.
The existing wave measuring device can measure the real-time wave condition at the current moment and indicate the retraction time of various offshore boats and unmanned submersible vehicles according to the wave condition. For example, patent CN103823218B provides a Ka band radar wave measurement device to obtain real-time wave distance, speed and period information; the invention application CN114655356A proposes an offshore wave measuring device for monitoring offshore waves in real time; the invention application CN1147780703a discloses a wave measuring device based on a speed sensor for acquiring wave information in real time. However, in the prior art, when the operator on the ship observes the retraction instruction during retraction operation, the reaction time is required, and the retraction process of the dinghy needs to have a certain preparation time, if a severe sea wave condition occurs during the time, the dinghy and the mother ship can collide, so that the personal and property safety is affected. Therefore, the existing wave measurement technology has a great potential safety hazard because the sea condition of a small boat and an unmanned submersible when the small boat and the unmanned submersible are deployed in a future period of time cannot be predicted.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve the problem of providing a wave prediction method and a wave measurement system, which integrate wave height prediction, sea state display and dinghy retraction time indication, can accurately measure wave information and predict, simultaneously give accurate retraction indication, and have the advantages of high measurement and prediction precision and strong practicability.
In order to solve the technical problems, the invention adopts the following technical scheme: a wave prediction method comprising the steps of:
s1, signal acquisition: the signal processing board collects current signals generated by the radar level gauge and converts the current signals into wave height data;
s2, data processing: setting a corresponding time window according to different sea conditions, collecting discrete wave height data in the time window and forming a wave height data sequence, then solving an average value c of the wave height data sequence as a bias item, and respectively subtracting the average value from all data in the wave height data sequence to obtain a dynamic wave height data sequence;
s3, establishing a model: the wave height data sequence and the dynamic wave height data sequence are respectively taken as the duration of 15s and the interval of 5s to form a wave height data set with n-period dataAnd dynamic wave height data setWhereinkThe wave height data period number is expressed, and the range is 1-1%nThe method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Bringing data of the wave height data set and the dynamic wave height data set into a wave height prediction model, the waveThe height prediction model is described by +.>Phase wave height data +.>Before->Stage, i.e.)>To->To predict the present period +.>The wave height prediction model is:
（1）
in the formula (1):is the firstnWave height data for a period; />Is->Periodic dynamic wave height data;is the futures of wave data that are used for prediction; />Is->The weight coefficient of (2) is 1-1%nWithin the period number, will be known +.>、、/>Is->Corresponding number of options->In (1), the weight coefficient +.>Determining a wave height prediction model;
s4, data correction: because the signal processing board can predict the wave height in the 3-period within 15 seconds, in order to improve the accuracy of the prediction data, the wave height predicted value in the third period is corrected by using the wave height predicted value in the first two periods,
the correction method comprises the following steps: assuming that the previous prediction is performed at the time t=0s, the wave data of 0s to 15s are predicted and recorded asyc 0 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the the first phase prediction is performed when t=5s, and the wave data of 5-20 s are predicted and recorded asyc 1 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the the second phase prediction is performed when t=10s, and the wave data of 10-25 s are predicted and recorded asyc 2 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the When t=15s, the third phase prediction is performed, and 15-30 s wave data are predicted, and are recorded asyc 3 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Handleyc 3 Regarded as the wave height prediction period, and utilizesyc 1 Andyc 2 for a pair ofyc 3 And correcting, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
（2）
（3）
（4）
in the formula (2), the amino acid sequence of the compound,YC 3 (15-20 s) wave data representing 15-20 s of the modified third-phase final predicted sequence,yc 1 (15-20 s) is expressed as 15-20 s wave data predicted in the first period,in the form ofyc 1 Weight coefficient of (15-20 s);yc 2 (15-20 s) 15-20 s wave data expressed as second-phase prediction, < +.>In the form ofyc 2 Weight coefficient of (15-20 s);yc 3 (15-20 s) wave data expressed as 15-20 s predicted in the third phase, {>In the form ofyc 3 Weight coefficient of (15-20 s);
in the formula (3), the amino acid sequence of the compound,YC 3 (20-25 s) wave data represented as 20-25 s of a modified third phase predicted sequence,yc 2 (20-25 s) is expressed as second-phase predicted 20-25 s wave data,in the form ofyc 2 Weight coefficient of (20-25 s);yc 3 (20-25 s) wave data expressed as predicted in third phase of 20-25 s, < >>In the form ofyc 3 Weight coefficient of (20-25 s);
in the formula (4), the amino acid sequence of the compound,YC 3 (25-30 s) 25-30 s wave data expressed as a modified third phase predicted sequence,yc 3 (25-30 s) is expressed as the wave data of 25-30 s predicted in the third period.
Finally, willYC 3 （15~20s）、YC 3 (20-25 s)YC 3 (25-30 s) is combined intoYC 3 And (15-30 s), namely a final wave trend curve predicted in the third period (the predicted waveform is predicted in 3 segments, each segment of data is 5s, and the waveform data of 15s is finally obtained by combining the 3 segments of data).
S5, placement decision: and setting a wave safety threshold YZ, determining whether data with the wave height of 10s being lower than YZ exist in a final wave trend curve of 15s, and conforming to the wave conditions of the retractable boats when the wave height of 10s is lower than YZ.
Further, steps S1 to S4 are completed in the signal processing board, and step S5 is performed in the PLC touch screen.
Further, in step S4, the weight coefficient in formula (2)And the weight coefficient in formula (3)There are constraints: />Is->。
The farther apart the time interval is weighted, the more closely the time interval is weighted, wherein,is->1.4 to 3 times,/o>Is->2-3 times%>Is->1.4 to 3 times of the total weight of the steel sheet.
Further, in step S5, if there is a wave data alarm indicator light that meets the condition, the alarm indicator light lights up to a green light if the alarm indicator light lights up to a yellow light and the current time satisfies the winding and unwinding condition, otherwise the alarm indicator light lights up to a red light.
The invention relates to a wave measurement system which comprises a PLC touch screen, a signal processing board, an alarm indicator lamp and a radar liquid level sensor.
The radar liquid level sensor is connected with the signal processing board and transmits signals to the signal processing board; the PLC touch screen is connected with the alarm indicator lamp and transmits signals to the alarm indicator lamp; the signal processing board is connected with the PLC touch screen and is in bidirectional communication with the PLC touch screen;
the PLC touch screen can receive the RS422 serial port information, is provided with 3 paths of relay output ports, and has programming processing capacity.
The signal processing board is a digital signal processing board taking a DSP (digital signal processor) TMS320F28335 chip as a core, and has higher operation performance.
The alarm indicator lamp is a red, yellow and green alarm indicator lamp; the radar liquid level sensor is a sensor for measuring the liquid level in the form of radar waves, and can convert ranging information into 4-20 mA current signals.
By adopting the technical scheme, the invention solves the problem that the current wave measurement technology cannot predict future wave conditions, so that potential safety hazards are caused by sea condition changes in the time required for observing and releasing instructions and executing the releasing and releasing of the dinghy when the shipboard operators are in releasing and releasing operations.
The measuring system integrates wave height prediction, sea condition display and dinghy retraction time indication, can accurately predict wave spectrum data in 15s pushed back at the current moment, accurately find dinghy retraction time with stable sea conditions according to future wave trend, leave decision and execution time for dinghy retraction operation of operators, avoid collision between dinghies and mother ships caused by abrupt wave motion in the dinghy retraction operation process, effectively reduce accident probability of dinghy retraction at sea, improve safety of offshore operation, have the advantages of high measurement and prediction precision, and strong practicability.
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The advantages and the manner of carrying out the invention will become more apparent from the following detailed description, taken in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, in which the content shown is meant to illustrate, but not to limit, the invention in any sense, and wherein:
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of the steps of the wave prediction method of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of a method for correcting data in a wave prediction method according to the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic view of the composition of the wave measurement system of the present invention;
fig. 4 is a graph of the wave prediction effect of the present invention.
Detailed Description
As shown in fig. 1, a wave prediction method includes the steps of:
s1, signal acquisition: the signal processing board collects 4-20 mA current signals generated by the radar liquid level gauge according to 10Hz and converts the current signals into wave height data;
s2, data processing: according to different sea conditions, different time windows (for example, a big sea condition is set for 20s time window; a middle sea condition is set for 50s time window and a small sea condition is set for 100s time window) are set, a discrete wave height data sequence in the time window is obtained, then an average value c of the wave height data sequence is obtained as a bias item, and all data in the wave height data sequence are respectively subtracted by the average value to obtain a dynamic wave height data sequence;
s3, establishing a model: the wave height data sequence and the dynamic wave height data sequence are respectively taken as the duration of 15s and the interval of 5s to form a wave height data set with n-period dataAnd dynamic wave height data setWhereinkThe wave height data period number is expressed, and the range is 1-1%nThe method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Bringing the data of the wave height data set and the dynamic wave height data set into a wave height prediction model, i.e. using +.>Phase wave height data +.>Before->Stage, i.e.)>To->To predict the present period +.>The wave height prediction model is:
（1）
in the formula (1):is the firstnWave height data for a period; />Is->Periodic dynamic wave height data;is the futures of wave data that are used for prediction; />Is the firstnPre-stage->Stage->Is used for the weight coefficient of the (c),
at 1 to 1%nWithin the period number, will be known、/>、/>Is->Corresponding number of options->In (1), the weight coefficient +.>Determining a wave height prediction model;
s4, data correction: because the signal processing board can predict the wave height in the 3-period within 15 seconds, in order to improve the accuracy of the prediction data, the wave height predicted value in the third period is corrected by using the wave height predicted value in the first two periods,
as shown in fig. 2, the correction method is as follows: assuming that the previous prediction is performed at the time t=0s, the wave data of 0s to 15s are predicted and recorded asyc 0 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the the first phase prediction is performed when t=5s, and the wave data of 5-20 s are predicted and recorded asyc 1 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the the second phase prediction is performed when t=10s, and the wave data of 10-25 s are predicted and recorded asyc 2 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the When t=15s, the third phase prediction is performed, and 15-30 s wave data are predicted, and are recorded asyc 3 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Handleyc 3 Considered as the wave height prediction period, benefitBy usingyc 1 Andyc 2 for a pair ofyc 3 And correcting, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
（2）
（3）
（4）
in the formula (2), the amino acid sequence of the compound,YC 3 (15-20 s) wave data representing 15-20 s of the modified third-phase final predicted sequence,yc 1 (15-20 s) is expressed as 15-20 s wave data predicted in the first period,in the form ofyc 1 Weight coefficient of (15-20 s);yc 2 (15-20 s) 15-20 s wave data expressed as second-phase prediction, < +.>In the form ofyc 2 Weight coefficient of (15-20 s);yc 3 (15-20 s) wave data expressed as 15-20 s predicted in the third phase, {>In the form ofyc 3 Weight coefficient of (15-20 s);
in the formula (3), the amino acid sequence of the compound,YC 3 (20-25 s) wave data represented as 20-25 s of a modified third phase predicted sequence,yc 2 (20-25 s) is expressed as second-phase predicted 20-25 s wave data,in the form ofyc 2 Weight coefficient of (20-25 s);yc 3 (20-25 s) expressed as 20 s-25 s of third-phase predictionWave data of>In the form ofyc 3 Weight coefficient of (20-25 s);
in the formula (4), the amino acid sequence of the compound,YC 3 (25-30 s) 25-30 s wave data expressed as a modified third phase predicted sequence,yc 3 (25-30 s) is expressed as the wave data of 25-30 s predicted in the third period.
Finally, willYC 3 （15~20s）、YC 3 (20-25 s)YC 3 (25-30 s) is combined intoYC 3 And (15-30 s), namely a final wave trend curve predicted in the third period (the predicted waveform is predicted in 3 segments, each segment of data is 5s, and the waveform data of 15s is finally obtained by combining the 3 segments of data).
S5, placement decision: and setting a wave safety threshold YZ, determining whether data with the wave height of 10s being lower than YZ exist in a final wave trend curve of 15s, and conforming to the wave conditions of the retractable boats when the wave height of 10s is lower than YZ.
The method comprises the steps of signal acquisition, data processing, wave height prediction and data correction, wherein the steps of signal acquisition, data processing, wave height prediction and data correction are completed in a signal processing board, and the placement decision step is performed in a PLC touch screen.
In step S4, the weight coefficient in equation (2)And the weight coefficient in formula (3)>There are constraints: />Is->。
The farther apart the time interval is weighted, the more closely the time interval is weighted, wherein,is->1.4 to 3 times,/o>Is->2-3 times%>Is->1.4 to 3 times of the total weight of the steel sheet.
In this embodiment, the weight coefficient in formula (1)Set to 0.15, 0.35 and 0.5, respectively, the weight coefficient in formula (2)>Set to 0.25 and 0.75, respectively.
In step S5, if there is a wave data alarm indicator light that meets the condition, the alarm indicator light lights up to a green light if the alarm indicator light lights up to a yellow light and the current time satisfies the winding and unwinding conditions, otherwise the alarm indicator light lights up to a red light.
Further, in step S5, the height fall between the mother and the boat cannot exceed the height of the half-times boat (wherein the heights of the mother and the boat are known, and when the wave heights are each lower than YZ for 10 seconds continuously, the height fall between the mother and the boat at the wave height is further calculated).
As shown in FIG. 3, the wave measurement system comprises a PLC touch screen, a signal processing board, an alarm indicator lamp and a radar liquid level sensor.
The radar liquid level sensor is connected with the signal processing board and transmits signals to the signal processing board; the PLC touch screen is connected with the alarm indicator lamp and transmits signals to the alarm indicator lamp; the signal processing board is connected with the PLC touch screen and is in bidirectional communication with the PLC touch screen;
the PLC touch screen can receive the RS422 serial port information, is provided with 3 paths of relay output ports, and has programming processing capacity.
The signal processing board is a digital signal processing board taking a DSP (digital signal processor) TMS320F28335 chip as a core, and has higher operation performance.
The alarm indicator lamp is a red, yellow and green alarm indicator lamp; the radar liquid level sensor is a sensor for measuring the liquid level in the form of radar waves, and can convert ranging information into 4-20 mA current signals.
The wave measurement principle of the invention is as follows: the radar liquid level sensor is installed and fixed at the boat retraction device, converts the acquired sea wave height information into a 4-20 mA current signal and transmits the 4-20 mA current signal to the signal processing board; then the signal processing board collects and calculates the current signals to obtain digital wave data, and the digital wave data are processed by a wave prediction method to predict a future wave trend curve of 15 s; the signal processing board transmits the real-time wave curve and the predicted wave trend curve to the PLC touch screen through a serial data bus RS 422; the method comprises the steps of displaying through a PLC touch screen, searching 10s wave data suitable for the deployment and retraction of a small boat in a 15s wave height prediction curve, and switching alarm indicator lamps; the red light indicates that no suitable boat is put in or put out in the future 15s wave data; the yellow lamp indicates that sea wave conditions suitable for the deployment and the retraction of the boats exist in the future 15s, and the deployment and the retraction time is not satisfied at the current moment; the green light represents the current and future 10s of suitable boats to be retracted and released; the small boat collecting and releasing operators can not collect and release the small boat when seeing the red light; when the yellow light is seen, the light needs to enter a small boat retraction preparation stage, and once the alarm indicator light turns green, the small boat retraction operation is rapidly carried out so as to avoid missing the optimal retraction time.
In order to verify the effectiveness of the invention, the invention is arranged on a ship to measure and predict waves, and the result is shown in fig. 4, wherein a wave acquisition curve and a wave height prediction curve are displayed, a dotted curve is acquisition data (measured value) of real-time waves, and solid curve data is wave height prediction data (predicted value); as can be seen from fig. 4, the wave height prediction curve is identical to the actual wave acquisition curve, the error peak value is about 0.2m, the error of 80% of data points appears in about 3min and is within 0.1m, which proves the correctness of the wave prediction method; after wave data are predicted, the signal processing board sends the wave real-time data and the predicted data to the PLC touch screen through a serial port RS 422; wherein, PLC touch-sensitive screen passes through relay port control tri-color lamp's on and off.
The foregoing describes the embodiments of the present invention in detail, but the description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and should not be construed as limiting the scope of the invention. All equivalent changes and modifications within the scope of the present invention are intended to be covered by this patent.
Claims (4)
1. A wave prediction method, characterized by: the method comprises the following steps:
s1, signal acquisition: the signal processing board collects current signals generated by the radar level gauge and converts the current signals into wave height data;
s2, data processing: setting a corresponding time window according to different sea conditions, collecting discrete wave height data in the time window and forming a wave height data sequence, then solving an average value c of the wave height data sequence as a bias item, and respectively subtracting the average value from all data in the wave height data sequence to obtain a dynamic wave height data sequence;
s3, establishing a model: the wave height data sequence and the dynamic wave height data sequence are respectively taken as the duration of 15s and the interval of 5s to form a wave height data set with n-period dataAnd dynamic wave height data setWhereinkThe wave height data period number is expressed, and the range is 1-1%nThe method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Aggregating wave height data and movingThe data of the set of state wave height data is brought into a wave height prediction model using +.>Phase wave height data +.>Before->Stage->To->To predict the present period +.>The wave height prediction model is:
（1）
in the formula (1):is the firstnWave height data for a period; />Is->Periodic dynamic wave height data; />Is the futures of wave data that are used for prediction; />Is->Is used for the weight coefficient of the (c),
at 1 to 1%nWithin the period number, will be known、/>、/>Is->Corresponding number of options->In (1), a weight coefficient is obtainedDetermining a wave height prediction model;
s4, data correction: assuming that the previous prediction is performed at the time t=0s, the wave data of 0s to 15s are predicted and recorded asyc 0 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the the first phase prediction is performed when t=5s, and the wave data of 5-20 s are predicted and recorded asyc 1 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the the second phase prediction is performed when t=10s, and the wave data of 10-25 s are predicted and recorded asyc 2 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the When t=15s, the third phase prediction is performed, and 15-30 s wave data are predicted, and are recorded asyc 3 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Handleyc 3 Regarded as the wave height prediction period, and utilizesyc 1 Andyc 2 for a pair ofyc 3 And correcting, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
（2）
（3）
（4）
in the formula (2), the amino acid sequence of the compound,YC 3 (15-20 s) wave data representing 15-20 s of the modified third-phase final predicted sequence,yc 1 (15-20 s) is expressed as 15-20 s wave data predicted in the first period,in the form ofyc 1 Weight coefficient of (15-20 s);yc 2 (15-20 s) 15-20 s wave data expressed as second-phase prediction, < +.>In the form ofyc 2 Weight coefficient of (15-20 s);yc 3 (15-20 s) wave data expressed as 15-20 s predicted in the third phase, {>In the form ofyc 3 Weight coefficient of (15-20 s);
in the formula (3), the amino acid sequence of the compound,YC 3 (20-25 s) wave data represented as 20-25 s of a modified third phase predicted sequence,yc 2 (20-25 s) is expressed as second-phase predicted 20-25 s wave data,in the form ofyc 2 Weight coefficient of (20-25 s);yc 3 (20-25 s) wave data expressed as predicted in third phase of 20-25 s, < >>In the form ofyc 3 Weight coefficient of (20-25 s);
in the formula (4), the amino acid sequence of the compound,YC 3 (25-30 s) expressed as25 s-30 s wave data of the modified third-phase prediction sequence,yc 3 (25-30 s) wave data expressed as 25-30 s of third-phase predictions;
will beYC 3 （15~20s）、YC 3 (20-25 s)YC 3 (25-30 s) is combined intoYC 3 (15-30 s) is a final wave trend curve predicted in the third period;
s5, placement decision: and setting a wave safety threshold YZ, determining whether data with the wave height of 10s being lower than YZ exist in a final wave trend curve of 15s, and conforming to the wave conditions of the retractable boats when the wave height of 10s is lower than YZ.
2. The wave prediction method according to claim 1, characterized in that: steps S1 to S4 are completed in the signal processing board, and step S5 is performed in the PLC touch screen.
3. The wave prediction method according to claim 1, characterized in that: in step S5, if there is a yellow light on the warning indicator light of the wave height data which accords with the wave condition of the retractable dinghy, if the yellow light on the warning indicator light is on and the retraction condition is met at the current moment, the green light on the warning indicator light, otherwise the red light on the warning indicator light.
4. A wave measurement system for implementing the wave prediction method according to any one of claims 1 to 3, characterized in that: the system comprises a PLC touch screen, a signal processing board, an alarm indicator lamp and a radar liquid level sensor, wherein the radar liquid level sensor is connected with the signal processing board and transmits signals to the signal processing board; the PLC touch screen is connected with the alarm indicator lamp and transmits signals to the alarm indicator lamp; the signal processing board is connected with the PLC touch screen, and the signal processing board and the PLC touch screen are in two-way communication.
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