CN115830872A - Method for judging influence of accident on bicycle use elasticity - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for judging the impact of accidents on bicycle use elasticity. By collecting accident sample information, dividing time units according to the time of accident occurrence, dividing reasonable buffer areas according to accident occurrence locations, and collecting bicycle station information in the buffer zone , to count the bicycle usage of each bicycle station in each time unit, and further count the bicycle usage in the buffer zone; according to the impact factors of the buffer zone, combined with the bicycle usage in the buffer zone, build a bicycle usage elasticity model; apply the bicycle usage elasticity Model, according to the influence coefficient to judge the impact of a change on the use of bicycles. By calculating the changes in bicycle usage in the buffer zone per unit time, the impact of accidents on the elasticity of bicycle use based on various influencing factors is analyzed. This method can better guide the traffic management department on how to efficiently dispatch bicycles when traffic accidents occur.

Description

A Method for Judging the Impact of Accidents on the Elasticity of Bicycle Use

technical field

The invention relates to the technical fields of traffic safety and public bicycles, in particular to a method for judging the impact of accidents on bicycle use elasticity.

Background technique

In order to alleviate urban traffic congestion and improve the efficiency of urban traffic operation, local governments are actively promoting the use of public bicycles. In order to improve the use of bicycles, the distribution of bicycles is increased or decreased according to the usage of bicycle stations. Related patents, such as CN101038685A urban bicycle sharing management system, just study the unified management of public bicycles. However, for uncertain events, such as the occurrence of traffic accidents, there is little research on the impact on the bicycle usage of surrounding bicycle stations, and in the prior art, it has not considered that the bicycle usage status of the place where the uncertain event occurs is also related to many objective factors. factors. At present, for the occurrence of uncertain events, it is an urgent problem to be able to comprehensively consider relevant factors, judge the impact of bicycle use elasticity, and realize the most reasonable utilization rate of bicycle scheduling.

Contents of the invention

The purpose of the present invention is: to overcome the deficiencies in the prior art, to provide a method for judging the impact of accidents on the elasticity of bicycle use, and to accurately evaluate the elasticity of accidents to bicycle use by dividing the impact buffer zone and setting unit time considering the impact factors Influence.

In order to achieve the above object, the present invention provides the following technical solutions: a method for judging the impact of accidents on bicycle use elasticity, comprising the following steps:

S1. Obtain sample information about the time and place of each accident in the target area;

S2. Based on the accident occurrence time in the sample information, preset the accident occurrence time period, and divide the accident occurrence time period into time units;

S3. According to the location of the accident in the sample information, preset the buffer zone where the accident occurred, and collect the bicycle station information in the buffer zone;

S4, according to the time unit of step S2 and the bicycle station information obtained in step S3, count the bicycle usage of each bicycle station in each time unit, and further count the bicycle usage of the buffer zone;

S5. Collect the influencing factors of the buffer zone, and combine the bicycle usage in the buffer zone to construct an elastic model of bicycle usage;

S6. Using the elasticity model of bicycle usage, judge the influence of each variation on the bicycle usage according to the influence coefficient.

Further, in the aforementioned step S2, the division of the time unit is specifically: based on the time of the accident, the time unit is divided into G hours before and after the accident in units of every t minutes, as follows:

G _i = {t ₁ ...t _n },

where i is the number of the accident sample.

Further, in the aforementioned step S3, the preset accident buffer zone is specifically: take the accident occurrence place as the center of the circle, respectively establish the impact buffer zone of the accident with the preset distance as the radius, and correspondingly collect the bicycle stations in the accident buffer zone information,

n _i = {d ₁ ...d _k }

where n _i is the preset distance buffer of accident i, and d _k is the bicycle station in the buffer, where k>1.

Further, in the aforementioned step S4, the bicycle usage in the statistical buffer zone is as follows:

Among them, Q(d _k ) is the bicycle usage of each bicycle station in each time unit.

Further, the aforementioned step S5 is specifically to collect influencing factors: road network density K _ti , economic GDP _ti , population P _ti , and number of bus stops D _ti , combined with bicycle usage M _ti in the buffer zone, to construct a bicycle usage elasticity model as follows:

为影响因素；ε为模型误差项，α_i为各影响因素的回归系数，β₀为模型的常数项；in,

is the influencing factor; ε is the model error item, α _i is the regression coefficient of each influencing factor, and β ₀ is the constant item of the model;

指其他的随机且不相关的变量。Among them, C is the variance and covariance matrix of random parameters, j is the number of random parameters,

Refers to other random and uncorrelated variables.

Further, the aforementioned S6 is specifically: applying the bicycle usage elasticity model to obtain the influence coefficient α, if α is a positive number, then the influencing factor corresponding to α has a positive influence on the bicycle usage, otherwise it has a negative influence.

Further, in the aforementioned method for judging the impact of accidents on the elasticity of bicycle use, the buffer zone for accidents is preset with the accident location as the center and the accident buffer zone with a radius of 400 meters.

Another aspect of the present invention proposes a system for judging the impact of accidents on bicycle use elasticity, including:

The sample collection module is configured to perform the following actions: obtain sample information about the time and location of each accident in the target area;

The time division module is configured to perform the following actions: based on the accident occurrence time in the sample information, preset the accident occurrence time period, and divide the accident occurrence time period into time units;

The station information acquisition module is configured to perform the following actions: according to the location of the accident in the sample information, preset the buffer zone where the accident occurred, and collect the bicycle station information in the buffer zone;

The bicycle usage statistics module is configured to perform the following actions: according to the time units obtained by the time division module and the bicycle station information obtained by the station information acquisition module, count the bicycle usage of each bicycle station in each time unit, and further count the buffer zone of bicycle usage;

The bicycle usage elastic model building module is configured to perform the following actions: collect the influencing factors of the buffer zone, and combine the bicycle usage in the buffer zone to build a bicycle usage elastic model;

The bicycle usage discrimination module is configured to perform the following actions: apply the bicycle usage elastic model, and judge the influence of each influencing factor on the bicycle usage according to the influence coefficient.

Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows: set different unit times by determining the traffic accident occurrence time, establish an impact buffer zone with a reasonable preset distance as the radius of the accident occurrence place, and calculate the unit time buffer The change of bicycle usage in the district analyzes the impact of accidents on the elasticity of bicycle use. This method can better guide the traffic management department on how to efficiently dispatch bicycles when traffic accidents occur.

Description of drawings

Fig. 1 is a method flow chart of an embodiment of the present invention.

Detailed ways

In order to better understand the technical content of the present invention, specific embodiments are given together with the attached drawings for description as follows.

Aspects of the invention are described herein with reference to the accompanying drawings, in which a number of illustrative embodiments are shown. Embodiments of the present invention are not limited to those described in the drawings. It should be understood that the present invention can be realized by any one of the various concepts and embodiments described above, as well as the concepts and embodiments described in detail below, because the disclosed concepts and embodiments of the present invention are not limited to any implementation Way. In addition, some aspects of the present disclosure may be used alone or in any suitable combination with other aspects of the present disclosure.

As shown in Figure 1, a method for judging the impact of accidents on the elasticity of bicycle use includes the following steps:

Step S1, obtaining sample information about the time and location of each accident in the target area;

Step S2. Based on the accident occurrence time in the sample information, preset the accident occurrence time period, and divide the accident occurrence time period into time units. The specific time division is: based on the accident occurrence time, the accident occurrence time is calculated in units of t minutes The time unit is divided into G hours before and after, as follows:

G _i = {t ₁ ...t _n },

where i is the number of the accident sample.

Step S3, according to the location of the accident in the sample information, preset the accident buffer zone, and collect the bicycle station information in the buffer zone; the preset accident buffer zone is specifically: take the accident location as the center, and take 400 meters as the center Radius establishes the impact buffer zone of the accident, and correspondingly collects the bicycle station information in the accident buffer zone,

n _i = {d ₁ ...d _k }

where n _i is the preset distance buffer of accident i, and d _k is the bicycle station in the buffer, where k>1.

The bicycle station information is shown in Table 1:

Table 1

Step S4, according to the time unit of step S2 and the bicycle station information obtained in step S3, count the bicycle usage of each bicycle station in each time unit, and further count the bicycle usage of the buffer zone. The bicycle usage in the statistical buffer zone is as follows:

Among them, Q(d _k ) is the bicycle usage of each bicycle station in each time unit.

Step S5, collect influencing factors: road network density K _ti , economic GDP _ti , population P _ti , number of bus stops D _ti , combined with the bicycle usage M _ti in the buffer zone, construct the elastic model of bicycle usage as follows:

Among them, x _i is the influencing factor;

指其他的随机且不相关的变量。Among them, C is the variance and covariance matrix of random parameters, j is the number of random parameters,

Refers to other random and uncorrelated variables.

The statistical table of influencing factors is shown in Table 2:

Table 2

site AADT P GDP K D. F₁ AADT₁ P₁ GDP₁ K₁ D₁ F₂ AADT₂ P₂ GDP₂ K₂ D₂ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ F_i AADT_i P_i GDP_i K_i D_i

Step S6, applying the elastic model of bicycle usage, can judge the impact of the influencing factors on the use of bicycles in the unit time after the accident, if the influence coefficient α is positive, it means that the factor has a positive impact on the use of bicycles, otherwise it means that the factor Negative effect on bicycle use. According to the influence of factors, strategies can be targeted to reduce the impact of accidents on the stability of the bicycle system.

Although the present invention has been described above with preferred embodiments, it is not intended to limit the present invention. Those skilled in the art of the present invention can make various changes and modifications without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention. Therefore, the scope of protection of the present invention should be defined by the claims.

Claims (8)

1. A method for judging the influence of an accident on the use elasticity of a bicycle is characterized by comprising the following steps:

s1, acquiring sample information related to each accident occurrence time and place in a target area;

s2, presetting an accident occurrence time period based on the time of the accident occurrence in the sample information, and dividing the accident occurrence time period into time units;

s3, presetting an accident occurrence buffer area according to the accident occurrence place in the sample information, and collecting the bicycle station information in the buffer area;

s4, according to the time units in the step S2 and the bicycle station information obtained in the step S3, the bicycle usage amount of each driving station in each time unit is counted, and the bicycle usage amount of the buffer area is further counted;

s5, acquiring influence factors of the buffer area, and constructing a bicycle usage elastic model by combining the bicycle usage of the buffer area;

and S6, applying the bicycle usage elastic model, and judging the influence of each influence factor on the use of the bicycle according to the influence coefficient.

2. The method for determining the impact of an accident on the use flexibility of a bicycle according to claim 1, wherein in step S2, the time division unit is specifically: based on the time of the accident, performing time unit segmentation on G hours before and after the accident by taking t minutes as a unit, wherein the time unit segmentation is as follows:

G _i ＝{t ₁ …t _n }，

where i is the number of the accident sample.

3. The method according to claim 1, wherein the step S3 of presetting the accident occurrence buffer area specifically comprises: the accident occurrence place is taken as the center of a circle, the preset distance is taken as the radius to establish the accident influence buffer area, the bicycle station information in the accident buffer area is correspondingly collected,

n _i ＝{d ₁ …d _k }

wherein n_i A predetermined distance buffer for the accident i, d _k Is a bicycle station in the buffer zone, where k>1。

4. The method as claimed in claim 3, wherein the step S4 is performed by counting the bicycle usage of the buffer area according to the following formula:

wherein ,Q(d_k ) The bicycle usage amount of each driving station in each time unit.

5. The method for determining the influence of the accident on the bicycle usage elasticity according to claim 4, wherein the step S5 is to collect the influence factors: road network density K _ti Economical GDP _ti Population P _ti Number of bus stops D _ti Bicycle usage M combined with buffer zone _ti And constructing a bicycle usage elastic model according to the following formula:

wherein ,

is an influencing factor; ε is the model error term, α _i As a regression coefficient, beta, for each influencing factor ₀ Is a constant term of the model;

wherein C is the variance and covariance matrix of the random parameters, j is the number of the random parameters,

refers to other random and uncorrelated variables.

6. The method for determining the impact of an accident on the resilience of a bicycle according to claim 5, wherein S6 is specifically: and obtaining an influence coefficient alpha by applying the bicycle usage elastic model, wherein if the alpha is a positive number, the influence factor corresponding to the alpha has a positive influence on the bicycle usage, and otherwise, the influence factor has a negative influence.

7. The method as claimed in claim 3, wherein the accident buffering area is created with the accident occurring place as a center and the radius of 400 m as a radius when the accident buffering area is preset.

8. A system for determining the impact of an accident on the resiliency of use of a bicycle, comprising:

a sample acquisition module configured to perform the following acts: acquiring sample information related to the occurrence time and place of each accident in a target area;

a time-slicing module configured to perform the following actions: presetting an accident occurrence time period based on the time of the accident occurrence in the sample information, and dividing the accident occurrence time period into time units;

a site information acquisition module configured to perform the following actions: presetting an accident occurrence buffer area according to the place of the accident occurrence in the sample information, and collecting the information of the bicycle stations in the buffer area;

a bicycle usage statistics module configured to perform the following actions: according to the time units obtained by the time division module and the bicycle station information obtained by the station information obtaining module, the bicycle usage amount of each driving station in each time unit is counted, and the bicycle usage amount of the buffer area is further counted;

a bicycle usage elasticity model building module configured to perform the following actions: acquiring influence factors of the buffer area, and constructing a bicycle usage elastic model by combining the bicycle usage of the buffer area;

a bicycle use condition determination module configured to perform the following actions: and (4) applying the bicycle usage amount elastic model, and judging the influence of each influence factor on the bicycle usage according to the influence coefficient.

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