CN115728577A - Arrester valve plate failure probability assessment method, device, equipment and medium - Google Patents
Arrester valve plate failure probability assessment method, device, equipment and medium Download PDFInfo
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- CN115728577A CN115728577A CN202211377378.4A CN202211377378A CN115728577A CN 115728577 A CN115728577 A CN 115728577A CN 202211377378 A CN202211377378 A CN 202211377378A CN 115728577 A CN115728577 A CN 115728577A
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Abstract
The invention discloses an arrester valve plate failure probability assessment method, relates to the technical field of arrester zinc oxide valve plates, and is used for solving the problem that the existing assessment result is inaccurate, and the method comprises the following steps: performing thermal power consumption characteristic test on the zinc oxide valve plate to obtain accelerated aging time; calculating the residual life of the valve plate through an Arrenius model according to the accelerated aging time; calculating the reliability of the valve plate through a double-parameter Weibull distribution model according to the residual service life and the operating life; and calculating the failure probability according to the reliability and the operation age. The invention also discloses an arrester valve plate failure probability evaluation device, electronic equipment and a computer storage medium. According to the invention, the service life evaluation result of the valve plate is more accurate by combining the Arrenius model with the two-parameter Weibull distribution model.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of lightning arrester zinc oxide valve plates, in particular to a method, a device, equipment and a medium for assessing failure probability of a lightning arrester valve plate.
Background
The lightning arrester has the functions of reducing the amplitude of overvoltage, avoiding the overvoltage from damaging an insulation system of electrical equipment and the like, and is widely used in a power grid system to ensure the safe operation of the electrical equipment and the power grid system.
When the service life of the lightning arrester is longer, the valve plate can be thermally aged, and the resistive leakage current flowing through the resistor plate can be increased, so that the heat power consumption is increased, and finally, the thermal breakdown of the lightning arrester and even explosion accidents can be caused. Therefore, the prior art can analyze the general operation condition of the lightning arrester to know the aging and moisture conditions when the state of the lightning arrester is degraded.
In view of this, researchers are highly concerned about the operation life evaluation work of the valve plate, and a large number of tests and researches are pertinently developed. The existing valve plate operation state evaluation method is based on electrical quantities described in GB11032-2020 standard, and mainly comprises full current, resistive current and the like of a lightning arrester or a resistor, the electrical quantities provide help for workers to judge the aging state of the lightning arrester to a certain extent, but the electrical quantities often have a 'knee effect', namely, the parameters can obviously change only after the valve plate is aged to a certain extent. Before the 'inflection point' value, the test and analysis results meet the requirements of relevant standards, which brings difficulty to the evaluation of the thermal aging life and the failure probability of the valve plate. Therefore, the prior art cannot solve the above technical problems.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to overcome the defects of the prior art, one of the objectives of the present invention is to provide a method for evaluating the failure probability of a valve plate of an arrester, which predicts the failure probability of the valve plate by testing the thermal power consumption performance and further by accelerating the aging time.
One of the purposes of the invention is realized by adopting the following technical scheme:
a failure probability assessment method for a valve plate of an arrester comprises the following steps:
performing heat power consumption characteristic test on the zinc oxide valve plate to obtain accelerated aging time;
calculating the residual life of the valve plate through an Arrenius model according to the accelerated aging time;
calculating the reliability of the valve plate through a double-parameter Weibull distribution model according to the residual service life and the operating life;
and calculating the failure probability according to the reliability and the operating age.
Further, the thermal power consumption characteristic test is carried out on the zinc oxide valve plate to obtain the accelerated aging time, and the method comprises the following steps:
applying alternating current continuous operation voltage to the valve plate, and calculating heat power consumption;
and when the thermal power consumption reaches an initial thermal power consumption value of 1.1Ps, recording the corresponding accelerated aging time.
Further, the thermal power consumption characteristics comprise a resistive current fundamental wave effective value Ir and a thermal power consumption aging curve Pr of the valve plate.
Further, according to the accelerated aging time t h And calculating the residual service life of the valve plate, comprising the following steps of:
calculating a thermal acceleration factor AF of the Arrenius model;
according to the thermal acceleration factor and the accelerated aging time t h Calculating the residual service life t of the valve plate s Satisfy t s ＝t h *AF。
Further, according to the residual service life and the operation age, the reliability of the valve plate is calculated, and the method comprises the following steps of:
calculating a probability distribution function F (t) according to a two-parameter Weibull distribution model, wherein the probability distribution function F (t) satisfies the following conditions:
calculating the reliability R (t) of the valve plate, and satisfying the following conditions: r (t) =1-F (t).
Further, the median rank F (t) in the two-parameter Weibull distribution model i ) The calculation of (a) satisfies:
wherein i is the sample serial number of the zinc oxide valve plates arranged according to the equivalent operation age limit, t i In order to accelerate the equivalent operation life under the aging condition, n is the sample number of the zinc oxide valve plate.
Further, calculating a failure probability lambda (t) according to the reliability and the operation age, and satisfying the following conditions:
the second objective of the present invention is to provide an arrester valve plate failure probability assessment device, which estimates the service life of the valve plate to obtain the failure probability.
The second purpose of the invention is realized by adopting the following technical scheme:
an arrester valve plate failure probability assessment device, it includes:
the test module is used for testing the thermal power consumption characteristics of the zinc oxide valve plate to obtain accelerated aging time;
the calculation module is used for calculating the residual life of the valve plate through an Arrenius model according to the accelerated aging time; calculating the reliability of the valve plate through a double-parameter Weibull distribution model according to the residual service life and the operating life; and calculating the failure probability according to the reliability and the operation age.
The present invention also provides an electronic device for performing one of the above objects, which includes a processor, a storage medium, and a computer program, wherein the computer program is stored in the storage medium, and when the computer program is executed by the processor, the method for estimating the failure probability of the valve plate of the lightning arrester is implemented.
It is a fourth object of the present invention to provide a computer-readable storage medium storing one of the objects of the present invention, on which a computer program is stored, the computer program when executed by a processor implementing the above-mentioned arrester valve sheet failure probability assessment method.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
according to the method, the heat power consumption characteristic test is carried out on the valve plate, the residual service life of the valve plate is calculated, the evaluation of the operation age and the failure probability of the valve plate is realized through the calculation of the reliability, the evaluation accuracy is improved by combining an Arrenius model and a two-parameter Weibull distribution model, the evaluation accuracy of the heat aging service life and the failure probability of the valve plate is high, maintenance personnel can be assisted to accurately judge the relation between the heat aging service life and the failure probability of the valve plate, the scientific formulation of an equipment decommissioning plan is facilitated, and the safe and stable operation of a power grid is ensured.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a failure probability evaluation method for a valve plate of an arrester according to the embodiment;
FIG. 2 is a graph of operating age versus reliability obtained from tests in accordance with one embodiment;
FIG. 3 is a graph of operational life versus failure probability obtained from tests in accordance with one embodiment;
fig. 4 is a block diagram of a structure of the arrester valve plate failure probability evaluation device according to the second embodiment;
fig. 5 is a block diagram of the electronic apparatus of the third embodiment.
Detailed Description
The present invention will now be described in more detail with reference to the accompanying drawings, in which the description of the invention is given by way of illustration and not of limitation. The various embodiments may be combined with each other to form other embodiments not shown in the following description.
Example one
The embodiment I provides an arrester valve plate failure probability assessment method, which aims to calculate the residual service life of a valve plate through an Arrenius model, and deduce the correlation between the operation life and the reliability of the valve plate through a two-parameter Weibull distribution model to realize probability assessment.
The arrhenius model used in this embodiment is a thermal acceleration factor arrhenius model, because for a zinc oxide valve plate, the temperature is an absolute main factor affecting the aging and the service life of a product, and the arrhenius model derived by purely considering the thermal acceleration factor effect is used for describing a test, the estimated result is closer to a true value, and the effect of a simulation test is better. The calculation formula is as follows:
AF＝exp{(E a /K)×[1/T u -1/T s ]}，
wherein AF is heatSpeed factor, E a The activation energy is determined according to the specific valve plate performance, the value is usually between 0.3ev and 1.2ev, K is Boltzmann constant, and the value is 8.617385, 10^ 5,T u Is the temperature value under the use condition, T s The temperature values under the accelerated aging test conditions are absolute temperature values in units of K (kelvin).
According to the above principle, please refer to fig. 1, a method for evaluating failure probability of a valve plate of an arrester includes the following steps:
s1, testing the thermal power consumption characteristics of a zinc oxide valve plate to obtain accelerated aging time;
s1 specifically comprises the following steps:
applying alternating current continuous operation voltage to the valve plate, and calculating heat power consumption;
and when the thermal power consumption reaches an initial thermal power consumption value of 1.1Ps, recording the corresponding accelerated aging time.
The voltage can be applied to the valve plate through the valve plate alternating current and direct current aging device. The valve plate alternating current and direct current aging device comprises an alternating current and direct current voltage output power supply, an alternating current stabilized voltage power supply, a power supply control cabinet, a test box and a control analysis system. The initial thermal power consumption value refers to the corresponding thermal power consumption when the aging is accelerated for 3 hours. The heat power consumption characteristics comprise a resistive current fundamental wave effective value Ir of the valve plate and a heat power consumption aging curve Pr.
The value of the continuous current running voltage U is according to the direct current 1mA reference voltage U of the valve plate 1mA Determining, and calculating by the formula:
U＝U 1mA v 2 × 0.9, where 0.9 is the arrester loading rate.
In the specific test process, a plurality of valve plates can be tested simultaneously to increase the accuracy, for example, 15 valve plates are placed in a test box simultaneously, alternating current continuous operation voltage U is applied to the valve plates through 15 electrodes, and the temperature in the test box is constant at 135 ℃. And calculating the product of Ir and U to obtain the heat power consumption characteristic of the valve plate in real time. Table 1 below shows the results of the 15 valve plate tests extracted.
TABLE 1
S2, according to the accelerated aging time t h Calculating the residual service life of the valve plate through an Arrenius model;
s2 specifically comprises the following steps:
calculating a thermal acceleration factor AF of the Arrenius model;
according to the thermal acceleration factor and the accelerated aging time t h Calculating the residual service life t of the valve plate s Satisfy t s ＝t h * And (7) AF. As shown in Table 1, the valve sheet has a large dispersion of the remaining life, i.e., the remaining life t s From 1 year to more than 10 years.
With E a ＝0.6eV，T u ＝298K，T s For example, =408K, calculate thermal acceleration factor:
s3, calculating the reliability of the valve plate through a double-parameter Weibull distribution model according to the residual service life and the operation life;
s3 specifically comprises the following steps: calculating a probability distribution function F (t) according to a two-parameter Weibull distribution model, wherein the probability distribution function F (t) satisfies the following conditions:
in this embodiment, the calculation of the two-parameter weibull distribution model is implemented by calculating the median rank, specifically, the median rank F (t) of the two-parameter weibull distribution model i ) The calculation of (a) satisfies:
wherein i is the sample serial number of the zinc oxide valve plates arranged according to the equivalent operation age limit, t i For equivalent operating life under accelerated aging conditions, n is oxygenThe number of samples of zinc valve plates; taking table 1 as an example, a thermal power consumption test was performed on 15 valve pieces to generate 9 valid data, so n =9.
Calculating the reliability R (t) of the valve plate, and meeting the following requirements: r (t) =1-F (t).
In the above equation, the calculation of F (t) can be transformed into:
Correlation test is carried out on the Weibull distribution by using a correlation coefficient method, the correlation coefficient is 0.9406 obtained by a function, namely the linear function, and obviously, the correlation between the test result obtained by the method and the service life of the valve plate is obvious.
By combining the data in table 1 and referring to the relationship graph of the operation period and the reliability shown in fig. 2, the reliability of the semiconductor device is very slowly reduced in the early stage of aging (before 12 years), the failure rate is accelerated in the middle stage of aging (12-25 years), and the reliability of the semiconductor device is rapidly reduced in the later stage of aging (after 25 years).
And S4, calculating failure probability according to the reliability and the operation age.
And S4, calculating failure probability lambda (t) according to the reliability and the operation age, and meeting the following requirements:
the relationship graph of the operating life and the failure probability obtained by the data calculation of table 1 is shown in fig. 3, and it can be seen that the failure probability gradually increases with the increase of the operating life, and the failure probability in the early stage of operation is kept at a lower level, so that no early failure exists.
In summary, through the physical test, the failure probability assessment method described in this embodiment has high result accuracy, solves the problem of inaccurate test result caused by the "inflection point effect", and has strong practicability.
Example two
The second embodiment discloses a device corresponding to the arrester valve plate failure probability assessment method according to the second embodiment, which is a virtual device structure according to the first embodiment, and as shown in fig. 4, the device includes:
the test module 210 is used for testing the thermal power consumption characteristics of the zinc oxide valve plate to obtain accelerated aging time;
the calculating module 220 is used for calculating the residual life of the valve plate through an Arrenius model according to the accelerated aging time; calculating the reliability of the valve plate through a double-parameter Weibull distribution model according to the residual service life and the operating life; and calculating the failure probability according to the reliability and the operation age.
Preferably, the step of performing thermal power consumption characteristic test on the zinc oxide valve plate to obtain the accelerated aging time comprises the following steps:
applying alternating current continuous operation voltage to the valve plate, and calculating heat power consumption;
and when the thermal power consumption reaches an initial thermal power consumption value of 1.1Ps, recording the corresponding accelerated aging time.
Preferably, calculating the remaining life of the valve plate according to the accelerated aging time comprises the following steps:
calculating a thermal acceleration factor AF of the Arrenius model;
according to the thermal acceleration factor and the accelerated aging time t h Calculating the residual service life t of the valve plate s Satisfy t s ＝t h *AF。
Preferably, the reliability of the valve plate is calculated according to the residual service life and the operating life, and the method comprises the following steps of:
calculating a probability distribution function F (t) according to a two-parameter Weibull distribution model, wherein the probability distribution function F (t) satisfies the following conditions:
calculating the reliability R (t) of the valve plate, and satisfying the following conditions: r (t) =1-F (t).
Preferably, the failure probability λ (t) is calculated according to the reliability and the operating age, and the following conditions are satisfied:
EXAMPLE III
Fig. 5 is a schematic structural diagram of an electronic device according to a third embodiment of the present invention, as shown in fig. 5, the electronic device includes a processor 310, a memory 320, an input device 330, and an output device 340; the number of the processors 310 in the computer device may be one or more, and one processor 310 is taken as an example in fig. 5; the processor 310, the memory 320, the input device 330 and the output device 340 in the electronic apparatus may be connected by a bus or other means, and the connection by the bus is exemplified in fig. 5.
The memory 320 is a computer-readable storage medium, and can be used to store software programs, computer-executable programs, and modules, such as program instructions/modules corresponding to the arrester valve sheet failure probability assessment method in the embodiment of the present invention. The processor 310 executes various functional applications and data processing of the electronic device by running the software programs, instructions and modules stored in the memory 320, that is, the lightning arrester valve plate failure probability assessment method according to the first embodiment is implemented.
The memory 320 may mainly include a program storage area and a data storage area, wherein the program storage area may store an operating system, an application program required for at least one function; the storage data area may store data created according to the use of the terminal, and the like. Further, the memory 320 may include high speed random access memory, and may also include non-volatile memory, such as at least one magnetic disk storage device, flash memory device, or other non-volatile solid state storage device. In some examples, the memory 320 may further include memory located remotely from the processor 310, which may be connected to the electronic device through a network. Examples of such networks include, but are not limited to, the internet, intranets, local area networks, mobile communication networks, and combinations thereof.
The input device 330 can be used to receive input of user identification information, valve plate data, detection data, and the like. The output device 340 may include a display device such as a display screen.
Example four
The fourth embodiment of the invention also provides a storage medium containing computer executable instructions, and the storage medium can be used for a computer to execute a lightning arrester valve plate failure probability assessment method, and the method comprises the following steps:
performing thermal power consumption characteristic test on the zinc oxide valve plate to obtain accelerated aging time;
calculating the residual life of the valve plate through an Arrenius model according to the accelerated aging time;
calculating the reliability of the valve plate through a double-parameter Weibull distribution model according to the residual service life and the operating life;
and calculating the failure probability according to the reliability and the operation age.
Of course, the storage medium containing the computer-executable instructions provided in the embodiments of the present invention is not limited to the above-described method operations, and may also perform related operations in the lightning arrester valve sheet failure probability evaluation method provided in any embodiment of the present invention.
From the above description of the embodiments, it is obvious for those skilled in the art that the present invention can be implemented by software and necessary general hardware, and certainly, can also be implemented by hardware, but the former is a better embodiment in many cases. Based on such understanding, the technical solutions of the present invention may be embodied in the form of a software product, which may be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, such as a floppy disk, a Read-Only Memory (ROM), a Random Access Memory (RAM), a FLASH Memory (FLASH), a hard disk or an optical disk of a computer, and includes instructions for enabling an electronic device (which may be a mobile phone, a personal computer, a server, or a network device) to execute the methods according to the embodiments of the present invention.
It should be noted that, in the embodiment of the method and the device for assessing failure probability of the valve plate of the lightning arrester, each included unit and each included module are only divided according to functional logic, but are not limited to the above division, as long as corresponding functions can be realized; in addition, specific names of the functional units are only for convenience of distinguishing from each other, and are not used for limiting the protection scope of the present invention.
Various other modifications and changes may be made by those skilled in the art based on the above-described technical solutions and concepts, and all such modifications and changes should fall within the scope of the claims of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. The method for evaluating the failure probability of the valve plate of the lightning arrester is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
performing thermal power consumption characteristic test on the zinc oxide valve plate to obtain accelerated aging time;
calculating the residual life of the valve plate through an Arrenius model according to the accelerated aging time;
calculating the reliability of the valve plate through a double-parameter Weibull distribution model according to the residual service life and the operating life;
and calculating the failure probability according to the reliability and the operation age.
2. The method for evaluating the failure probability of the valve plate of the lightning arrester according to claim 1, wherein the step of performing a thermal power consumption characteristic test on the zinc oxide valve plate to obtain the accelerated aging time comprises the following steps:
applying alternating current continuous operation voltage to the valve plate, and calculating heat power consumption;
and when the thermal power consumption reaches an initial thermal power consumption value of 1.1Ps, recording the corresponding accelerated aging time.
3. The method for evaluating the failure probability of the valve plate of the lightning arrester according to claim 1 or 2, characterized in that the thermal power consumption characteristics comprise a resistive current fundamental wave effective value Ir and a thermal power consumption aging curve Pr of the valve plate.
4. The method for evaluating the failure probability of the valve plate of the arrester according to claim 1, characterized in that the method is performed according to the accelerated aging time t h And calculating the residual service life of the valve plate, comprising the following steps of:
calculating a thermal acceleration factor AF of the Arrenius model;
according to the thermal acceleration factor and the accelerated aging time t h Calculating the residual service life t of the valve plate s Satisfy t s ＝t h *AF。
5. The method for evaluating the failure probability of the valve plate of the lightning arrester according to claim 1, wherein the valve plate reliability is calculated according to the residual service life and the operating life, and the method comprises the following steps:
calculating a probability distribution function F (t) according to a two-parameter Weibull distribution model, wherein the probability distribution function F (t) meets the following conditions:
calculating the reliability R (t) of the valve plate, and satisfying the following conditions: r (t) =1-F (t).
6. The arrester valve plate failure probability evaluation method of claim 5, wherein the two-parameter Weibull distribution model is of median rank F (t) i ) The calculation of (a) satisfies:
wherein i is the sample serial number of the zinc oxide valve plates arranged according to the equivalent operation age limit, t i In order to accelerate the equivalent operation life under the aging condition, n is the sample number of the zinc oxide valve plate.
7. The method as claimed in claim 5The method for evaluating the failure probability of the valve plate of the lightning arrester is characterized in that the failure probability lambda (t) is calculated according to the reliability and the operation age, and the following conditions are met:
8. the utility model provides an arrester valve block probability of failure evaluation device which characterized in that, it includes:
the test module is used for testing the thermal power consumption characteristics of the zinc oxide valve plate to obtain accelerated aging time;
the calculation module is used for calculating the residual life of the valve plate through an Arrenius model according to the accelerated aging time; calculating the reliability of the valve plate through a double-parameter Weibull distribution model according to the residual service life and the operating life; and calculating the failure probability according to the reliability and the operation age.
9. An electronic device comprising a processor, a storage medium, and a computer program, the computer program being stored in the storage medium, wherein the computer program, when executed by the processor, implements the arrester valve sheet failure probability assessment method according to any one of claims 1 to 7.
10. A computer-readable storage medium on which a computer program is stored, wherein the computer program, when executed by a processor, implements the method for assessing failure probability of a valve blade for an arrester of any of claims 1 to 7.
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Cited By (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN117741356A (en) * | 2023-12-04 | 2024-03-22 | 国网宁夏电力有限公司电力科学研究院 | Lightning arrester valve plate aging evaluation method, medium and system under complex working conditions |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN117741356A (en) * | 2023-12-04 | 2024-03-22 | 国网宁夏电力有限公司电力科学研究院 | Lightning arrester valve plate aging evaluation method, medium and system under complex working conditions |
| CN117741356B (en) * | 2023-12-04 | 2024-06-11 | 国网宁夏电力有限公司电力科学研究院 | Lightning arrester valve plate aging evaluation method, medium and system under complex working conditions |
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