CN115598454A - Calculation method for predicting service life of transformer - Google Patents

Calculation method for predicting service life of transformer Download PDF

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Publication number
CN115598454A
CN115598454A CN202211407622.7A CN202211407622A CN115598454A CN 115598454 A CN115598454 A CN 115598454A CN 202211407622 A CN202211407622 A CN 202211407622A CN 115598454 A CN115598454 A CN 115598454A
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transformer
calculating
value
service life
measuring
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Inventor
王允光
杨露
段兵
郭涛
朱启龙
杨涛
余云光
邓亚奎
李时珍
张睿
张志磊
谭智斌
姚燕琪
宋超帆
贺武政
李峥嵘
杨昊澄
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Honghe Power Supply Bureau of Yunnan Power Grid Co Ltd
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Honghe Power Supply Bureau of Yunnan Power Grid Co Ltd
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    • GPHYSICS
    • G01MEASURING; TESTING
    • G01RMEASURING ELECTRIC VARIABLES; MEASURING MAGNETIC VARIABLES
    • G01R31/00Arrangements for testing electric properties; Arrangements for locating electric faults; Arrangements for electrical testing characterised by what is being tested not provided for elsewhere
    • GPHYSICS
    • G01MEASURING; TESTING
    • G01NINVESTIGATING OR ANALYSING MATERIALS BY DETERMINING THEIR CHEMICAL OR PHYSICAL PROPERTIES
    • G01N33/00Investigating or analysing materials by specific methods not covered by groups G01N1/00 - G01N31/00
    • G01N33/26Oils; viscous liquids; paints; inks
    • G01N33/28Oils, i.e. hydrocarbon liquids
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06FELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
    • G06F17/00Digital computing or data processing equipment or methods, specially adapted for specific functions
    • G06F17/10Complex mathematical operations
    • G06F17/18Complex mathematical operations for evaluating statistical data, e.g. average values, frequency distributions, probability functions, regression analysis
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06FELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
    • G06F30/00Computer-aided design [CAD]
    • G06F30/20Design optimisation, verification or simulation
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06FELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
    • G06F2119/00Details relating to the type or aim of the analysis or the optimisation
    • G06F2119/04Ageing analysis or optimisation against ageing

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of prediction of residual life of power equipment, in particular to a calculation method for predicting the service life of a transformer. The method comprises the following steps: measuring the working temperature of the transformer, the moisture content and the oxygen concentration of the transformer insulating paper; calculating pre-exponential factors and activation energy; measuring and calculating the reaction rate of the transformer of the same model, detecting a furan mixture of the transformer oil and measuring and calculating the DP value of the transformer oil; starting and working the transformer for a period of time; extracting the transformer oil after being started for a period of time, and measuring the content of furan compounds in the transformer oil; measuring the DP values of the transformer oil when the transformer is just started and works for a period of time by using a formula; and (4) performing prediction calculation on the residual life of the transformer by using the parameters. The design of the invention can obtain more accurate residual life prediction, improve the precision of the transformer life prediction, timely adjust the management mode of the tested transformer and improve the economic effect of the operation of the transformer.

Description

Calculation method for predicting service life of transformer
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of prediction of residual life of power equipment, in particular to a calculation method for predicting the service life of a transformer.
Background
The transformer is a device for changing alternating voltage by utilizing the principle of electromagnetic induction, belongs to primary equipment of a power grid and important components in a power system, is also important equipment for connecting a power plant and a power consumer, has the function of not only realizing the function of power transformation, but also has direct relation to the stable, continuous and safe operation of the power system, the economic benefit of the power system and the like. The stability and safe operation of the power system are the key points for ensuring the continuous and stable output of electric energy of the power system, and with the rapid development of the scale of a power grid in China, users seek basic power utilization requirements and simultaneously put forward higher requirements on the stability and reliability of the power system. The transformer plays an important role in the power system, and the stable operation of the transformer can be said to be an important thing. Whether the daily electricity utilization or the industrial electricity utilization is provided, once a power system fails, serious consequences can be caused, and therefore, the improvement of the stability of the power system is an urgent matter.
In consideration of the importance of the power transformer and the important role played in the power generation process, the prediction of the service life of the transformer needs to be more important, the transformer needs to be replaced in time, a power system needs to be replaced in a more timely mode, and the power transformer has great benefits for economic management. Therefore, the method has important research significance for evaluating the residual service life of the power transformer and also has a great reference effect on economic management of a power system. Only when the service life of the transformer is scientifically predicted can the transformer be better adapted to the society with rapid development. However, in recent years with some management of transformers gradually become no longer suitable for current transformer operation.
The transformer oil of the power transformer is one of important substances for reaction aging, some chemical components contained in the transformer oil can accurately reflect the aging degree of the transformer, and the polymerization degree (DP value) of the transformer insulating material is the most accurate, reliable and effective criterion for the insulation aging degree. The standard of the transformer aging degree is judged according to the average polymerization degree of the insulating paper boards, and the service life of the transformer can be evaluated through the DP value. However, at present, there is no mature technology for predicting the service life of the transformer from the DP value in the transformer oil, and in view of this, a calculation method for predicting the service life of the transformer is provided.
Disclosure of Invention
The present invention is directed to a method for calculating a service life of a transformer, so as to solve the problems mentioned in the background art.
In order to solve the above technical problem, an object of the present invention is to provide a method for calculating a service life of a transformer, which calculates an activation energy and a pre-exponential factor a of a power transformer according to a working condition of the transformer, so as to achieve more accurate prediction and estimation of the service life of the transformer, and the method includes the following steps:
s1, measuring the working temperature T of the working environment where the tested transformer is located, the moisture content of transformer insulation paper and the oxygen concentration;
in the step, when the moisture content of the transformer insulation paper is measured, the moisture content refers to the water concentration in the insulation paper, and a trace moisture determinator can be used for accurately measuring the moisture content
S2, according to the measured moisture content and oxygen concentration, the pre-exponential factor A and the activation energy E are compared a Calculating;
in this step, the formula required for calculating the pre-exponential factor a is:
A=3.07×10 6 x 3 +1.69×10 8 x 2 +1.166×10 8 x+5.327×10 7 (1);
A=9.981×10 6 x 3 -4.839×10 7 x 2 +1.371×10 9 x-6.739×10 7 (2);
A=-5.492×10 5 x 3 +4.427×10 6 x 2 +1.705×10 9 x+1.521×10 8 (3);
wherein, the formula (1) is a calculation formula when the oxygen concentration is less than 7000ppm, the formula (2) is a calculation formula when the oxygen concentration is between 7000ppm and 14000ppm, and the formula (3) is a calculation formula when the oxygen concentration is higher than 14000 ppm; x means the water concentration (%) in the insulating paper measured previously;
at the same time, for activation energy E a When the calculation is carried out, the calculation formula is as follows:
(lnA-lnV)×T×R=E a (4);
wherein R is a gas constant, the value is (8.314J/mol/K), T is the measured working temperature of the transformer, and the unit of activation energy is (KJ/mol);
s3, measuring and calculating the reaction rate V of the transformer of the same model, wherein the furan mixture of the transformer oil needs to be detected, and the DP value of the polymerization degree is measured and calculated;
in this step, the method for measuring the DP value from the furan mixture is:
the furan mixture is furfural, and a calculation formula for calculating the DP value according to the concentration of the furfural is as follows:
Figure BDA0003936657720000031
wherein 2FAL is the concentration of the furan mixture;
further, the reaction rate is calculated by:
when the reaction rate V is measured and calculated, firstly, a transformer with the same model as the tested transformer needs to be found in advance, the DP value is between 1000 and 1200, then the transformer is started and operated for a period of time, and the DP value is measured and calculated; the reaction rate V is calculated as:
Figure BDA0003936657720000032
wherein, DP 1 Is the initial DP value of the transformer, which ranges from 1000 to 1200, DP 2 The value DP of the transformer after the use time t;
s4, starting the transformer, and enabling the transformer to work for a period of time t;
s5, extracting the transformer oil after the transformer is started for a period of time t, and measuring the content of furan compounds in the transformer oil;
s6, measuring the DP value content of the transformer oil when the transformer is just started and the DP value content of the transformer oil working for a period of time t by using a formula through measuring furan compounds in the transformer oil;
s7, utilizing the activation energy E obtained in the steps S1-S6 a And the pre-exponential factor A and the operating working temperature T are used for predicting and calculating the residual life of the transformer, and finally the estimated life of the transformer is obtained.
In this step, when the residual life of the transformer is predicted and calculated, the formula of the calculation method is as follows:
Figure BDA0003936657720000041
wherein, DP e For the prediction of any value in the range of 100-200, DP s Measuring the DP value of the transformer after the transformer runs for a period of time;
furthermore, the estimated life of the transformer can be obtained by adding the calculated residual life to the original working life of the transformer.
As a further improvement of the technical solution, the method for calculating the service life of the transformer further comprises:
s8, multiple oil samples can be taken simultaneously or in multiple time periods, the steps S1-S7 are repeated to predict the service life of the transformer, and more accurate service life estimation is obtained by solving an average value so as to reduce the calculation deviation of prediction estimation caused by the influence of part of factors on the transformer oil;
and S9, comparing the average value of the replacement life of a certain number of transformers of the same type in reality with the predicted value obtained by the transformer to be tested through statistics, and replacing the management mode in time to prolong the service life of the transformer.
The second objective of the present invention is to provide a computing method operating platform device, which comprises a processor, a memory and a computer program stored in the memory and run on the processor, wherein the computer program is used for recording data measured and calculated in the steps of the method, and automatically calculating a final required value of the service life of the transformer according to a preset computing program, and the processor is used for implementing the steps of the computing method for predicting the service life of the transformer when executing the computer program.
It is a further object of the present invention to provide a computer-readable storage medium, which stores a computer program, which when executed by a processor implements the steps of the above-mentioned method for calculating the service life of a transformer.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
according to the method for calculating the service life of the transformer, when the activation energy and the index factor are measured and calculated, the working state of the transformer is fully considered, so that the activation energy and the index factor of any transformer can be measured and calculated, and more accurate residual life prediction can be obtained; meanwhile, a mode of measuring and calculating the DP value by utilizing the furan mixture is adopted, and finally, the average value of the residual life of the transformer is calculated by a mode of predicting the residual life of the transformer for multiple times in different periods, so that the precision of the prediction of the life of the transformer is improved; in addition, the method can compare the predicted service life with the actual replacement service life of the same type of transformer and timely adjust the management mode of the tested transformer so as to improve the economic effect of the operation of the transformer.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is an exemplary overall method flow diagram of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a block diagram of an exemplary electronic computer platform assembly according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Example 1
As shown in fig. 1-2, the present embodiment provides a method for calculating a service life of a transformer, which calculates an activation energy and a pre-exponential factor a possessed by a power transformer according to a transformer operating condition, so as to implement more accurate prediction and estimation of the service life of the transformer, and includes the following steps.
S1, measuring the working temperature T of the working environment where the tested transformer is located, and the moisture content and the oxygen concentration of transformer insulation paper;
in this step, when measuring the moisture content of the transformer insulation paper, the moisture content refers to the water concentration in the insulation paper, and a trace moisture meter can be used for accurate measurement.
Among these, because the amount of water inside the transformer insulation system is very important, because moisture inside the transformer has a destructive effect. At the same time, the amount of moisture in the paper and the oil is not equal and is constantly transferred between the paper and the oil. Therefore, some micro moisture measuring instruments are adopted to measure the water concentration, and the current transformer oil is extracted at the same time to measure the oxygen concentration in the oil, wherein the calculated oxygen concentration is an index of an index factor A before subsequent calculation; the working temperature is measured at different time intervals of the operation of the transformer, and finally, the average value is obtained to obtain the average working temperature.
S2, according to the measured moisture content and oxygen concentration, the pre-exponential factor A and the activation energy E are compared a Calculating;
namely, according to the measured oxygen concentration as an index, the pre-exponential factor A is calculated according to different classifications of the oxygen concentration, and the activation energy E is calculated by utilizing the obtained various conditions a The numerical value is calculated by a formula.
In this step, the formula required for calculating the pre-exponential factor a is:
A=3.07×10 6 x 3 +1.69×10 8 x 2 +1.166×10 8 x+5.327×10 7 (1);
A=9.981×10 6 x 3 -4.839×10 7 x 2 +1.371×10 9 x-6.739×10 7 (2);
A=-5.492×10 5 x 3 +4.427×10 6 x 2 +1.705×10 9 x+1.521×10 8 (3);
wherein, the formula (1) is a calculation formula when the oxygen concentration is less than 7000ppm, the formula (2) is a calculation formula when the oxygen concentration is 7000ppm and 14000ppm, and the formula (3) is a calculation formula when the oxygen concentration is higher than 14000 ppm; x refers to the water concentration (%) in the insulating paper measured as described above.
At the same time, for activation energy E a When the calculation is carried out, the calculation formula is as follows:
(lnA-lnV)×T×R=E a (4);
wherein, R is a gas constant and takes a value of (8.314J/mol/K), T is the measured working temperature of the transformer, and the unit of activation energy is (KJ/mol).
S3, measuring and calculating the reaction rate V of the transformer of the same model, wherein the furan mixture of the transformer oil needs to be detected, and the DP value of the polymerization degree is measured and calculated;
in this step, the method for measuring the DP value from the furan mixture is:
the furan mixture is furfural, and the calculation formula for calculating the DP value according to the concentration of the furfural is as follows:
Figure BDA0003936657720000061
wherein 2FAL is the concentration of the furan mixture.
Further, the reaction rate is calculated by:
when the reaction rate V is measured and calculated, firstly, a transformer with the same model as the tested transformer needs to be found in advance, the DP value is between 1000 and 1200, then the transformer is started and operated for a period of time, and the DP value is measured and calculated; the reaction rate V is calculated by the formula:
Figure BDA0003936657720000071
wherein DP 1 Is the initial DP value of the transformer, which ranges from 1000 to 1200, DP 2 Is the value of DP after the transformer has been used for time t.
S4, starting the transformer and enabling the transformer to work for a period of time t;
in this step, the transformer is started and operated for a period of time t, in order to keep the transformer in a normal operating state and at a normal operating temperature, so that the resulting residual life is more accurate.
S5, extracting the transformer oil after the transformer is started for a period of time t, and measuring the content of furan compounds in the transformer oil;
s6, measuring the DP value content of the transformer oil when the transformer is just started and the DP value content of the transformer oil working for a period of time t by measuring furan compounds in the transformer oil by using a formula;
s7, utilizing the activation energy E obtained in the steps S1-S6 a And the pre-exponential factor A and the operating working temperature T are used for predicting and calculating the residual life of the transformer, and finally the estimated life of the transformer is obtained.
In this step, when the residual life of the transformer is predicted and calculated, the formula of the calculation method is as follows:
Figure BDA0003936657720000072
wherein DP e For the prediction of any value in the range of 100-200, DP s Measuring the DP value after the transformer operates for a period of time;
furthermore, the estimated life of the transformer can be obtained by adding the calculated remaining life to the operating life of the original transformer (i.e., the operating life of the transformer is long).
Further, the calculation method for predicting the service life of the transformer further comprises the following steps:
s8, multiple oil samples can be taken simultaneously or in multiple time periods, the steps S1-S7 are repeated to predict the service life of the transformer, and more accurate service life estimation is obtained by solving an average value so as to reduce the calculation deviation of prediction estimation caused by the influence of part of factors on the transformer oil;
and S9, comparing the average value of the replacement life of a certain number of transformers of the same type in reality with the predicted value obtained by the transformer to be tested by statistics, and replacing the management mode in time to prolong the service life of the transformer.
As shown in fig. 2, the embodiment further provides a computing method operating platform device, which includes a processor, a memory, and a computer program stored in the memory and run on the processor, where the computer program is configured to record data measured and calculated in each step of the above method, and automatically calculate a final required value of the service life of the transformer according to a preset computing program.
The processor comprises one or more processing cores, the processor is connected with the memory through the bus, the memory is used for storing program instructions, and the steps of the calculation method for predicting the service life of the transformer are realized when the processor executes the program instructions in the memory.
Alternatively, the memory may be implemented by any type or combination of volatile and non-volatile memory devices, such as Static Random Access Memory (SRAM), electrically erasable programmable read-only memory (EEPROM), erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM), programmable read-only memory (PROM), read-only memory (ROM), magnetic memory, flash memory, magnetic or optical disks.
In addition, the present invention further provides a computer readable storage medium, in which a computer program is stored, and the computer program, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the above-mentioned method for calculating the service life of a transformer.
Optionally, the present invention also provides a computer program product containing instructions, which when run on a computer, causes the computer to execute the steps of the above-mentioned method for calculating the service life of a transformer.
It will be understood by those skilled in the art that the processes for implementing all or part of the steps of the above embodiments may be implemented by hardware, or may be implemented by a program instructing relevant hardware, and the program may be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, and the above-mentioned storage medium may be a read-only memory, a magnetic disk or an optical disk, etc.
The foregoing shows and describes the general principles, essential features, and advantages of the invention. It will be understood by those skilled in the art that the present invention is not limited to the embodiments described above, and the preferred embodiments of the present invention are described in the above embodiments and the description, and are not intended to limit the present invention. The scope of the invention is defined by the appended claims and equivalents thereof.

Claims (8)

1. A method for predicting the service life of a transformer is characterized in that the activation energy and the pre-exponential factor A of a power transformer are calculated according to the working condition of the transformer, so that the service life of the transformer can be predicted and estimated more accurately, and the method comprises the following steps:
s1, measuring the working temperature T of the working environment where the tested transformer is located, and the moisture content and the oxygen concentration of transformer insulation paper;
s2, pre-exponential factor A and activation energy E are measured according to the measured moisture content and oxygen concentration a Calculating;
s3, measuring and calculating the reaction rate V of the transformer of the same model, wherein the furan mixture of the transformer oil needs to be detected, and the DP value of the polymerization degree of the transformer oil is measured and calculated;
s4, starting the transformer, and enabling the transformer to work for a period of time t;
s5, extracting the transformer oil after the transformer is started for a period of time t, and measuring the content of furan compounds in the transformer oil;
s6, measuring the DP value content of the transformer oil when the transformer is just started and the DP value content of the transformer oil working for a period of time t by using a formula through measuring furan compounds in the transformer oil;
s7, utilizing the activation energy E obtained in the steps S1-S6 a And the previous exponential factor A and the operating working temperature T are used for predicting and calculating the residual life of the transformer, and finally the estimated life of the transformer is obtained.
2. The method for calculating the service life of the transformer according to claim 1, wherein in step S1, when the moisture content of the insulation paper of the transformer is measured, the moisture content refers to the water concentration in the insulation paper, and can be accurately measured by using a trace moisture meter.
3. The method for calculating the service life of the transformer according to claim 1, wherein in the step S2, a formula required for calculating the pre-exponential factor a is as follows:
A=3.07×10 6 x 3 +1.69×10 8 x 2 +1.166×10 8 x+5.327×10 7 (1);
A=9.981×10 6 x 3 -4.839×10 7 x 2 +1.371×10 9 x-6.739×10 7 (2);
A=-5.492×10 5 x 3 +4.427×10 6 x 2 +1.705×10 9 x+1.521×10 8 (3);
wherein, the formula (1) is a calculation formula when the oxygen concentration is less than 7000ppm, the formula (2) is a calculation formula when the oxygen concentration is 7000ppm and 14000ppm, and the formula (3) is a calculation formula when the oxygen concentration is higher than 14000 ppm; x refers to the water concentration (%) in the insulating paper measured as described above.
4. The method for calculating the service life of the transformer according to claim 1, wherein in the step S2, the activation energy E is calculated a When the calculation is carried out, the calculation formula is as follows:
(lnA-lnV)×T×R=E a (4);
wherein, R is a gas constant and takes a value of (8.314J/mol/K), T is the measured working temperature of the transformer, and the unit of activation energy is (KJ/mol).
5. The method for calculating the service life of the transformer according to claim 1, wherein in the step S3, the DP value is calculated according to the furan mixture by:
the furan mixture is furfural, and a calculation formula for calculating the DP value according to the concentration of the furfural is as follows:
Figure FDA0003936657710000021
wherein 2FAL is the concentration of the furan mixture.
6. The method for calculating the service life of the transformer according to claim 1, wherein in the step S3, the method for calculating the reaction rate is as follows:
when the reaction rate V is measured and calculated, firstly, a transformer with the same model as the tested transformer needs to be found in advance, the DP value is between 1000 and 1200, then the transformer is started and operated for a period of time, and the DP value is measured and calculated; the reaction rate V is calculated by the formula:
Figure FDA0003936657710000022
wherein DP 1 Is the initial DP value of the transformer, which ranges from 1000 to 1200, DP 2 Is the value of DP after the transformer has been used for time t.
7. The method for calculating the service life of the transformer according to claim 1, wherein in the step S7, when the residual life of the transformer is calculated, the formula of the calculation method is as follows:
Figure FDA0003936657710000031
wherein DP e For prediction values ranging from 100-200, DP s Measuring the DP value after the transformer operates for a period of time;
furthermore, the estimated life of the transformer can be obtained by adding the calculated residual life to the original working life of the transformer.
8. The method for calculating the service life of the predictive transformer according to claim 1, further comprising:
s8, multiple oil samples can be taken simultaneously or in multiple time periods, the steps S1-S7 are repeated to predict the service life of the transformer, and more accurate service life estimation is obtained by solving an average value so as to reduce the calculation deviation of prediction estimation caused by the influence of part of factors on the transformer oil;
and S9, comparing the average value of the replacement life of a certain number of transformers of the same type in reality with the predicted value obtained by the transformer to be tested through statistics, and replacing the management mode in time to prolong the service life of the transformer.
CN202211407622.7A 2022-11-10 2022-11-10 Calculation method for predicting service life of transformer Pending CN115598454A (en)

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Cited By (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN116227171A (en) * 2023-02-08 2023-06-06 广东电网有限责任公司佛山供电局 Method and device for evaluating residual life of oil immersed transformer

Cited By (2)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN116227171A (en) * 2023-02-08 2023-06-06 广东电网有限责任公司佛山供电局 Method and device for evaluating residual life of oil immersed transformer
CN116227171B (en) * 2023-02-08 2024-02-06 广东电网有限责任公司佛山供电局 Method and device for evaluating residual life of oil immersed transformer

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