CN115564168A - Method for power grid enterprise global risk quantification and grading - Google Patents
Method for power grid enterprise global risk quantification and grading Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for power grid enterprise global risk quantification and grading, which comprises the steps of constructing a power grid enterprise global risk assessment index system, selecting a reasonable index value interval to carry out risk grade division on each index and setting a corresponding risk quantification value interval, calculating the risk grade and the risk quantification value of each operation risk index, calculating the power grid enterprise global operation risk grade and the quantification value, carrying out probability grading on accident occurrence probability and determining the accident occurrence probability quantification value, calculating the risk grade and the risk quantification value of a net rack risk index after each accident occurs, calculating the power grid enterprise global net rack risk grade and the quantification value, calculating the power grid enterprise global comprehensive risk quantification value and determining the power grid enterprise global comprehensive risk grade. The invention introduces risk grading to grade the calculated comprehensive risk, and provides reference and basis for the optimization of the global risk of the power grid enterprise.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of power grid electric power, in particular to a method for power grid enterprise global risk quantification and grading.
Background
The faults of the power grid enterprise universe are important factors influencing the quality of electric energy and the reliability of power supply, and the safe and reliable operation of the whole power grid can be ensured only if the safe and stable operation of the power grid enterprise universe is ensured. Therefore, more work in the field of security defense of the power grid enterprise universe is very necessary to be developed, the risk assessment method of the power grid enterprise universe is researched, and the vulnerability and weak area of the power grid enterprise universe can be timely and comprehensively found by performing risk assessment on the power grid enterprise universe, so that defense and improvement measures are provided, and the occurrence and expansion of accidents are effectively inhibited.
Although the risk assessment of the power system is still in a starting stage at home and abroad, particularly no unified and effective scheme for real-time fault probability prediction exists, in recent years, through the efforts of scientific research and practice workers, the risk assessment of the whole area of the power grid enterprise is summarized into four aspects: establishing a time-varying equipment outage model; a rapid risk assessment method; an online risk indicator that facilitates scheduling decisions; risk-based preventive control decisions.
At present, power grid enterprise global risk assessment mainly calculates risks by establishing an outage model of elements and calculating corresponding system state probabilities, and combining statistical historical load characteristics (such as annual load level) and a method of multiplying risk probabilities by risk consequences, but some problems exist in the current method: because the risk evaluation result multiplies the accident occurrence probability and the accident severity, the scheduling personnel cannot know the specific composition of the accident occurrence probability and the accident severity according to the risk index, namely the accident occurrence probability and the accident severity cannot be known, so that the judgment of the scheduling personnel of the system is influenced to a certain extent, and wrong scheduling selection is possibly caused; because the established power grid enterprise global model is analyzed through the statistical load data, the risk assessment result is often a calculation result within a period of time and cannot reflect the power grid enterprise global risk level at a specific moment, and the used load data is the past load data and needs to be estimated by means of load prediction and the like; generally, risk assessment can only be performed in an off-line analysis mode, various risk conditions occurring in the universe of the power grid enterprise cannot be reflected in time, larger-scale accidents are easy to happen, and timely accident early warning cannot be achieved. In recent years, new ideas of power grid enterprise-wide risk assessment are presented, which mainly expand around real-time risk, and calculate final risk by grading risk consequences and risk occurrence probability, but only consider the risk in the current state, and do not consider potential risk caused by the shortage of a grid structure. In view of the above problems in the current power grid enterprise-wide risk assessment, finding a method capable of comprehensively and effectively assessing the risk level of the power grid enterprise-wide area is an urgent problem to be solved.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a method for power grid enterprise global risk quantification and grading, which considers the risk level of real-time operation of the power grid enterprise global and the potential risk caused by grid structure defects of the power grid enterprise global, comprehensively reflects the comprehensive risk level of the power grid enterprise global, and simultaneously introduces risk grading to grade the calculated comprehensive risk, thereby providing reference and basis for optimization of the power grid enterprise global risk.
In order to solve the technical problem, the invention adopts the following scheme:
the method for power grid enterprise global risk quantification and grading comprises the following steps:
a1, selecting an operation risk index and a grid frame risk index for constructing a power grid enterprise global risk assessment index system;
the operational risk indicators include: load loss risk, user power failure risk, important user power failure risk, line highest load rate, heavy-load overload line number, transformer highest load rate and heavy-load overload transformer number;
the rack risk indicator includes: energy loss rate after failure, number of users loss rate after failure and important user loss rate after failure;
a2, respectively selecting reasonable index value intervals to carry out risk grade division on each operation risk index and each net rack risk index, and setting corresponding risk quantization value intervals;
a3, calculating the risk grade and the risk quantitative value of each operation risk index according to the index risk grade interval and the risk quantitative value interval determined in the A2;
a4, calculating the risk level and the quantitative value of the global operation of the power grid enterprise according to the risk quantitative value of each operation risk index calculated in the step A3;
a5, calculating the fault probability of the line, calculating the accident probability caused by the fault of a single line, carrying out probability grading on the accident probability and determining the quantized value of the accident probability;
a6, analyzing the consequences after each accident in A5, and calculating the risk grade and the risk quantitative value of the net rack risk index after each accident according to the index risk grade interval and the risk quantitative index interval determined by A2;
a7, calculating an accident risk consequence quantitative value according to the occurrence probability quantitative value of each accident obtained in the step A5 and the risk quantitative value of the post-accident grid risk index obtained in the step A6, and calculating the whole-domain grid risk level and the risk quantitative value of the power grid enterprise;
and A8, calculating a power grid enterprise global comprehensive risk quantization value according to the power grid enterprise global operation risk quantization value obtained by the A4 and the power grid enterprise global network frame risk quantization value obtained by the A7, and determining a power grid enterprise global comprehensive risk grade according to the calculated power grid enterprise global comprehensive risk quantization value.
Optionally, A2 specifically includes: setting different risk levels, and sequencing the risk levels according to the risk degree; setting an index value interval corresponding to each risk level for each index; for each risk level, a corresponding risk quantification value is set.
Optionally, A3 specifically includes: calculating an index value of each operation risk index; and determining the risk level of the operation risk index according to the calculated index value of the operation risk index, and calculating the risk quantized value of the operation risk index according to the corresponding risk quantized value interval.
Optionally, A4 specifically includes: calculating a running average risk value and a running highest risk value according to the calculated risk quantitative value of each running risk index; and calculating an operation risk quantitative value according to the operation average risk value and the operation highest risk value, and determining an operation risk grade.
Optionally, A5 specifically includes: calculating the fault probability of the line, and calculating the fault probability caused by the fault of a single line; and determining the accident occurrence probability grade and calculating the accident occurrence probability quantized value according to the calculated accident occurrence probability.
Optionally, A6 specifically includes: analyzing the consequences after each accident occurs, and calculating the index value of the net rack risk index; and determining the risk grade and the risk quantitative value of the net rack risk index according to the calculated index value of the net rack risk index.
Optionally, A7 specifically includes: calculating the risk quantitative value of the accident risk consequence after the accident happens according to the risk quantitative value of the net rack risk index calculated after each accident happens; calculating an accident risk value of the accident according to the probability quantitative value of the accident and the accident risk consequence quantitative value; analyzing all possible accidents of the universe of the power grid enterprise, calculating to obtain corresponding accident risk values after each accident, and calculating the grid risk values; and determining the risk level of the net rack and the risk quantification of the net rack according to the calculated net rack risk value.
Optionally, the larger the power grid enterprise global comprehensive risk quantization value is, the lower the power grid enterprise global comprehensive risk level is, and the smaller the power grid enterprise global comprehensive risk assessment is.
The invention has the following beneficial effects:
1. according to the method, the risk level of real-time operation of the power grid enterprise universe is considered, the potential risk caused by the grid structure defect of the power grid enterprise universe is also considered, and the comprehensive risk level of the power grid enterprise universe is comprehensively reflected; the risk indexes are defined more comprehensively, all aspects of the global risk of the power grid enterprise are covered, the risks of the line and the transformer are reflected, the risk loss possibly brought after an accident occurs is reflected, and the operation risk and the grid risk change can be immediately reflected on the comprehensive risk; in the calculation process of the comprehensive risk of the power grid enterprise universe, the risk level is reflected by using the risk quantitative value and the risk grade, the visual understanding is given to people from the quantitative aspect and the qualitative aspect, the scheduling operator can have deeper understanding on the risk level of the power grid enterprise universe, and a scheme for coping with the risk can be quickly found out.
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FIG. 1 is a schematic flow diagram of an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of a global comprehensive risk assessment index system of a power grid enterprise in the embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The present invention will be described in further detail with reference to examples and drawings, but the embodiments of the present invention are not limited thereto.
In the description of the present invention, it should be noted that the terms "center", "upper", "lower", "left", "right", "vertical", "longitudinal", "lateral", "horizontal", "inner", "outer", "front", "rear", "top", "bottom", and the like indicate orientations or positional relationships that are based on the orientations or positional relationships shown in the drawings, or that are conventionally placed when the product of the present invention is used, and are used only for convenience in describing and simplifying the description, but do not indicate or imply that the device or element referred to must have a particular orientation, be constructed in a particular orientation, and be operated, and thus should not be construed as limiting the invention.
In the description of the present invention, it should also be noted that, unless otherwise explicitly specified or limited, the terms "disposed," "open," "mounted," "connected," and "connected" are to be construed broadly, e.g., as meaning either a fixed connection, a removable connection, or an integral connection; can be mechanically or electrically connected; they may be connected directly or indirectly through intervening media, or they may be interconnected between two elements. The specific meanings of the above terms in the present invention can be understood in specific cases to those skilled in the art.
Example 1
As shown in fig. 1 and 2, the method for power grid enterprise global risk quantification and scaling includes the following steps:
a1, selecting an operation risk index and a grid frame risk index for constructing a power grid enterprise global risk assessment index system;
the operational risk indicators include: load loss risk, user power failure risk, important user power failure risk, line highest load rate, heavy-load overload line number, transformer highest load rate and heavy-load overload transformer number;
the rack risk indicator includes: energy loss rate after failure, number of users loss rate after failure and important user loss rate after failure;
a2, reasonable index value intervals are respectively selected to carry out risk grade division on each operation risk index and each net rack risk index, and corresponding risk quantization value intervals are set;
a3, calculating the risk grade and the risk quantitative value of each operation risk index according to the index risk grade interval and the risk quantitative value interval determined in the A2;
a4, calculating the risk level and the quantitative value of the global operation of the power grid enterprise according to the risk quantitative value of each operation risk index calculated in the step A3;
a5, calculating the fault probability of the line, calculating the accident probability caused by the fault of a single line, carrying out probability grading on the accident probability and determining the quantized value of the accident probability;
a6, analyzing the consequences after each accident in A5, and calculating the risk grade and the risk quantitative value of the net rack risk index after each accident according to the index risk grade interval and the risk quantitative index interval determined by A2;
a7, calculating an accident risk consequence quantitative value according to the occurrence probability quantitative value of each accident obtained in the step A5 and the risk quantitative value of the post-accident grid risk index obtained in the step A6, and calculating the whole-domain grid risk level and the risk quantitative value of the power grid enterprise;
and A8, calculating a power grid enterprise global comprehensive risk quantization value according to the power grid enterprise global operation risk quantization value obtained by the A4 and the power grid enterprise global network frame risk quantization value obtained by the A7, and determining a power grid enterprise global comprehensive risk level according to the power grid enterprise global comprehensive risk quantization value obtained by calculation.
Further, A2 specifically includes: setting different risk levels, and sequencing the risk levels according to the risk degree; setting an index value interval corresponding to each risk level for each index; for each risk level, a corresponding risk quantification value is set.
Further, the A3 specifically includes: calculating an index value of each operation risk index; and determining the risk level of the operation risk index according to the calculated index value of the operation risk index, and calculating the risk quantized value of the operation risk index according to the corresponding risk quantized value interval.
Further, A4 specifically includes: calculating an average running risk value and a highest running risk value according to the calculated risk quantitative value of each running risk index; and calculating an operation risk quantitative value according to the operation average risk value and the operation highest risk value, and determining an operation risk grade.
Further, A5 specifically includes: calculating the fault probability of the line, and calculating the fault probability caused by the fault of a single line; and determining the accident occurrence probability grade and calculating the accident occurrence probability quantized value according to the calculated accident occurrence probability.
Further, A6 specifically includes: analyzing the consequences after each accident occurs, and calculating the index value of the grid risk index; and determining the risk grade and the risk quantized value of the net rack risk index according to the calculated index value of the net rack risk index.
Further, A7 specifically includes: calculating an accident risk consequence quantitative value after the accident occurs according to the risk quantitative value of the net rack risk index calculated after each accident occurs; calculating an accident risk value of the accident according to the probability quantitative value of the accident and the accident risk consequence quantitative value; analyzing all possible accidents of the universe of the power grid enterprise, calculating to obtain corresponding accident risk values after each accident, and calculating the grid risk values; and determining the risk level of the net rack and the risk quantification of the net rack according to the calculated net rack risk value.
Further, the larger the power grid enterprise global comprehensive risk quantization value is, the lower the power grid enterprise global comprehensive risk level is, and the smaller the power grid enterprise global comprehensive risk assessment is.
As can be seen from the above description, the implementation of the embodiment of the present invention has the following beneficial effects:
the invention provides a method for quantifying and grading the risk of the universe of a power grid enterprise, which considers the risk level of real-time operation of the universe of the power grid enterprise and the potential risk caused by the grid structure defect of the universe of the power grid enterprise and comprehensively reflects the comprehensive risk level of the universe of the power grid enterprise;
the risk indexes are more comprehensively defined, all aspects of the global risk of the power grid enterprise are covered, the risks of lines and transformers are reflected, the risk loss possibly brought after an accident happens is reflected, and the operation risk and the change of the grid risk can be immediately reflected on the comprehensive risk;
in the calculation process of the comprehensive risk of the power grid enterprise universe, the risk level is reflected by using the risk quantitative value and the risk grade, the visual understanding is given to people from the quantitative aspect and the qualitative aspect, the scheduling operator can have deeper understanding on the risk level of the power grid enterprise universe, and a scheme for coping with the risk can be quickly found out.
While the invention has been described in connection with what is presently considered to be the most practical and preferred embodiment, it is to be understood that the invention is not to be limited to the disclosed embodiment, but on the contrary, is intended to cover various modifications, equivalent arrangements, and alternatives falling within the spirit and scope of the invention as defined by the appended claims.
Claims (8)
1. The method for power grid enterprise global risk quantification and grading is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
a1, selecting an operation risk index and a grid frame risk index for constructing a power grid enterprise universe risk assessment index system;
the operational risk indicators include: load loss risk, user power failure risk, important user power failure risk, line highest load rate, heavy-load overload line number, transformer highest load rate and heavy-load overload transformer number;
the rack risk indicator includes: energy loss rate after failure, user time loss rate after failure and important user loss rate after failure;
a2, respectively selecting reasonable index value intervals to carry out risk grade division on each operation risk index and each net rack risk index, and setting corresponding risk quantization value intervals;
a3, calculating the risk grade and the risk quantized value of each operation risk index according to the index risk grade interval and the risk quantized value interval determined in the A2;
a4, calculating the global operation risk level and the quantitative value of the power grid enterprise according to the risk quantitative value of each operation risk index calculated in the step A3;
a5, calculating the fault probability of the line, calculating the accident probability caused by the fault of a single line, carrying out probability grading on the accident probability and determining the quantized value of the accident probability;
a6, analyzing the consequences after each accident in A5, and calculating the risk grade and the risk quantitative value of the net rack risk index after each accident according to the index risk grade interval and the risk quantitative index interval determined by A2;
a7, calculating an accident risk consequence quantitative value according to the occurrence probability quantitative value of each accident obtained in the step A5 and the risk quantitative value of the post-accident grid risk index obtained in the step A6, and calculating the whole-domain grid risk level and the risk quantitative value of the power grid enterprise;
and A8, calculating a power grid enterprise global comprehensive risk quantization value according to the power grid enterprise global operation risk quantization value obtained by the A4 and the power grid enterprise global network frame risk quantization value obtained by the A7, and determining a power grid enterprise global comprehensive risk grade according to the calculated power grid enterprise global comprehensive risk quantization value.
2. The method for power grid enterprise population risk quantification and scaling as claimed in claim 1, wherein the A2 specifically comprises: setting different risk levels, and sequencing the risk levels according to the risk degree; setting an index value interval corresponding to each risk level for each index; for each risk level, a corresponding risk quantification value is set.
3. The method for power grid enterprise-wide risk quantitative rating according to claim 1, wherein the A3 specifically comprises: calculating an index value of each operation risk index; and determining the risk level of the operation risk index according to the calculated index value of the operation risk index, and calculating the risk quantized value of the operation risk index according to the corresponding risk quantized value interval.
4. The method for power grid enterprise population risk quantification and scaling as claimed in claim 1, wherein the A4 specifically comprises: calculating a running average risk value and a running highest risk value according to the calculated risk quantitative value of each running risk index; and calculating an operation risk quantitative value according to the operation average risk value and the operation highest risk value, and determining an operation risk grade.
5. The method for power grid enterprise population risk quantification and scaling as claimed in claim 1, wherein the A5 specifically comprises: calculating the fault probability of the line, and calculating the fault probability caused by the fault of a single line; and determining the accident occurrence probability grade and calculating the accident occurrence probability quantized value according to the calculated accident occurrence probability.
6. The method for power grid enterprise-wide risk quantitative rating according to claim 1, wherein the A6 specifically comprises: analyzing the consequences after each accident occurs, and calculating the index value of the grid risk index; and determining the risk grade and the risk quantitative value of the net rack risk index according to the calculated index value of the net rack risk index.
7. The method for power grid enterprise-wide risk quantitative rating according to claim 1, wherein the A7 specifically comprises: calculating an accident risk consequence quantitative value after the accident occurs according to the risk quantitative value of the net rack risk index calculated after each accident occurs; calculating an accident risk value of the accident according to the probability quantitative value of the accident and the accident risk consequence quantitative value; analyzing all possible accidents of the universe of the power grid enterprise, calculating to obtain corresponding accident risk values after each accident, and calculating the grid risk values; and determining the risk grade and the risk quantitative value of the net rack according to the calculated net rack risk value.
8. The method for power grid enterprise global risk quantification and grading according to claim 1, wherein the larger the power grid enterprise global comprehensive risk quantification value is, the lower the power grid enterprise global comprehensive risk grade is, and the smaller the power grid enterprise global comprehensive risk assessment is.
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