CN115545398A

CN115545398A - Risk assessment method based on human, machine and environment data quantification

Info

Publication number: CN115545398A
Application number: CN202210988761.7A
Authority: CN
Inventors: 刘森; 郭敬云; 田盼盼; 宋益博; 刘晓疆; 陈晓; 刘青; 战嘉馨
Original assignee: Qingdao Civil Aviation Cares Co ltd
Current assignee: Qingdao Civil Aviation Cares Co ltd
Priority date: 2022-08-17
Filing date: 2022-08-17
Publication date: 2022-12-30

Abstract

The invention relates to a risk assessment method based on human, aircraft and environment data quantification, wherein the risk assessment comprises two stages before take-off and after take-off, and each stage is respectively used for risk assessment from an index system built by three parts of an organization personnel, an aircraft and an environment; the method specifically comprises the following steps: s1, analyzing a flight related risk index system of the crew from the capacity of the crew, experience of the crew and pressure degree of the crew; s2, analyzing a related risk index system of the airplane; s3, analyzing an environment-related risk index system; and S4, carrying out fuzzy comprehensive judgment on the flight risk weight. The invention has the advantages that: through risk index evaluation of three dimensions of people, machines and environment, all influencing factors in the processes of dispatching and running monitoring are identified, analyzed, evaluated and controlled through an evaluation system. And real-time auxiliary decision support is provided for flight operation risk management and control, and functions of risk mitigation, risk continuous monitoring and the like are realized.

Description

Risk assessment method based on human, machine and environment data quantification

Technical Field

The invention relates to a risk assessment method based on human, machine and environment data quantification, and belongs to the field of risk assessment of aviation safety, civil aviation and flight.

Background

The existing risk assessment method is mostly used for monitoring various configuration parameters and states of the aircraft, and data are single and unilateral. In practice, flight risks include comprehensive consideration and quantitative evaluation of data in human (aircrew) and aircraft (aircraft) environments (take-off and landing site guarantee). The method is based on the three conditions, the flight risk is evaluated after reasonable quantification, the most key risk factor is judged quickly, real-time assistant decision support is provided for flight operation risk management and control, and functions of risk mitigation, risk continuous monitoring and the like are realized.

Disclosure of Invention

In order to overcome the defects of the prior art, the invention provides a risk assessment method based on human, machine and environment data quantification, and the technical scheme of the invention is as follows:

a risk assessment method based on human, aircraft and environment data quantification comprises two stages before take-off and after take-off, wherein each stage is respectively used for risk assessment from an index system built by three parts of an organization personnel, an aircraft and an environment; the method specifically comprises the following steps:

s1, analyzing a flight related risk index system of the crew from the capacity of the crew, experience of the crew and pressure degree of the crew;

s2, analyzing a related risk index system of the airplane;

s3, analyzing an environment-related risk index system;

and S4, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of flight risk weight.

In the crew member of the step S1, the index items related to the captain/the copilot are as follows:

(1) The flight time of the machine type: and (3) grading rules: the pilot is divided into classes of trainees, observers F0-F3, a copilot F2, a captain M, a special class J and a class instructor A1, and the classes are divided according to the classification rule: a1: 0-50 hours 6 minutes, 50-100 hours 5 minutes, and one minute is reduced when every 50 hours is increased; j: 0-100 hours and 6 minutes, and one minute is reduced when every 100 hours is increased; m: 0-100 hours and 6 minutes, and one minute is reduced when every 100 hours is increased; f3: 0-100 hours and 6 minutes, and one minute is reduced when every 100 hours is increased; f2: 0-100 hours and 6 minutes, and one minute is reduced when every 100 hours is increased; the time range is calculated from the driving of the local machine type;

(2) The machine type starting and falling times scoring rule is as follows: a1: 0-5, 4 minutes, and one minute is reduced when 5 pieces are added; j: 0-10 and 5 minutes, and one minute is reduced when 5 lifting wheels are added; m: 0-15, 6 minutes, and one minute is reduced when 5 rise and fall are added; the time range is calculated from the day of evaluating the technical grade;

(3) Last flight scoring rules: the captain: 8 minutes in 90 days, one minute every 10 days, normal in 20 days, copilot: 8 minutes in 90 days, reducing one minute every 10 days, and being normal in 20 days, only receiving flight experience data, no matter whether the aircraft is in a seat or not, and not calculating a simulator; evaluating the flight days of the pilot item captain from the last time to the present day and the flight days of the pilot drive from the last time to the present day;

(4) Recent landing gear experience scoring rules: machine length: the machine type does not contain a simulator, and the rise and fall of 0-3 operation within 30 days are 6 minutes, and the 1 minute is reduced when 1 is added; and (3) copilot driving: the machine type (without a simulator) is lifted and lowered by 6 minutes after 0-5 operations within 30 days, and the lifting is reduced by 1 minute when 2 operations are increased; time range: 1 rise and fall is calculated in one flight segment; evaluating index item captain: landing times within 30 days, copilot: the number of the rise and the fall within 30 days;

(5) The work experience scoring rules are as follows: the air passenger system is converted into the boeing system for 6 minutes within 1 month after the machine type difference modification, and the system returns to zero after 12 months; 4, converting the wave sound into the airbus, and evaluating the modification type of the index item, converting the airbus into the wave sound and converting the wave sound into the airbus for a long time;

(6) Airport experience scoring rules: flying for 8 minutes for the airport for the first time, reducing 2 minutes for each flying, calculating the airport experience without considering whether to go to the seat or not, and counting the data of the last year; evaluation index items: pilot airport times within one year;

(7) Airline experience scoring rules: flying the flight line for the first time by 8 minutes, and subtracting 2 minutes from each flying time; flying can be carried out without considering whether the passenger sits on the airplane or not, and the passenger plane does not calculate and the landing does not calculate; counting data of the last year according to the urban pair judgment; evaluation index items: flight line experience;

(8) Comprehensive ability evaluation scoring rules: the personnel above the chief deputy of each team score and respectively input the pilot job number and the risk additional score; the additional score is directly used as an evaluation risk value; evaluation index items: evaluating the score;

(9) The rest period scoring rules between duty periods are as follows: if the duty period is the same day, the task book is not received, and the actual ending date of the previous flight cannot be obtained; manual time: 9 minutes after 9 hours; reducing 1 minute when adding 1 hour; the duty cycle calculation rules are as follows: subtracting the starting time of the duty period from the ending time of the duty period by subtracting the rest period generated by overlong station-passing time, wherein the starting time of the duty period is the preparation time before flight of the first section of task, and if the flight is delayed, and the preparation time before delayed flight is greater than the originally planned takeoff time, taking the preparation time before delayed flight as the duty starting time); the end time of the duty period is the last task departure time of the complete task period; when the difference in the multi-flight section is more than 4 hours, the interval time of the flight sections needs to be subtracted from the duty time;

preparation time before flight: the preparation time before the international flight is 2 hours and 10 minutes before the scheduled takeoff; the preparation time before the flight in China is 1 hour and 50 minutes before the planned take-off; the international and domestic after-voyage departure time is 30 minutes after landing;

in the two continuous flight segments, the departure time from the previous segment to the next segment between the landing of the previous segment is less than or equal to 9 hours, the coming and returning flights are counted as a duty period, and the duty period is cut off when the duty period is more than 9 hours;

in the case of riding the aircraft, the attendance period is counted from 1 hour before the takeoff until the attendance period is counted before the takeoff of the next flight segment, and the attendance period counting rule is also followed when the station-passing time exceeds 4 hours. After the task is finished, the riding machine returning to the base does not count an on-duty period and a rest period. The rest period starts to be calculated from the off-duty period;

the flight hours are not counted in the boarding process, the flight hours are not counted in the simulation machine training process, but the duty period is counted, and index items are evaluated: a rest time;

(10) Rule whether the rest period is scored at night: including 0 to 5 points and 1 point, and not including 6 points

(11) Time-to-check-in scoring rules: check in 7 points before 22 o 'clock to 5 o' clock in the previous day; 5 points to 6 points, sign in for 6 points; 6-7 points check in for 5 minutes, and after 7 points check in for 2 minutes after 22 points; calculating check-in time by reversely pushing for 2 hours and 10 minutes in international take-off time and reversely pushing for 1 hour and 50 minutes in domestic take-off time; evaluation index items: a time of check-in;

(12) Plan on duty time scoring rules:

single group: 14 hours; strong group: 16-18 hours; double groups: 20 hours is used as a manual standard for inputting; the planning time is 8 minutes, and 2 minutes is reduced when 1 hour is reduced; evaluating the unit capacity of the index item;

(13) Whether the duty period crosses the zero point scoring rule: if the route is single-section route more than 7 hours, the zero crossing point is 7 minutes; if the route is below 7 hours in a single section, if the zero crossing point is 3 minutes; taking the actual landing time of the flight as the standard; evaluating whether the index item is single-section more than 7 hours and crosses 0 point;

(14) The number of flight segments in the duty period is scored as follows: 1-3 is 2 minutes, and more than 4 is 5 minutes; evaluating the number of the flights of the index item in the duty period;

(15) Special route scoring rules: 8 minutes are taken on the polar region route; 8 minutes in African routes; evaluating the performance of the index route;

(16) The air route duration scoring rule is as follows: 8 hours and 5 minutes, and adding 1.5 minutes every two hours; evaluation index items: flight hours of the flight route;

(17) Lane time difference scoring rules: 4 hours and 3 minutes, and adding 1 minute every two hours; the time difference is the time difference between a take-off airport and a landing airport; evaluation index items: time difference at landing and landing airports;

(18) Continuous rest time scoring rules over 7 days: 36 hours is standard and regulated by regulations. And 5, dividing. One-minute reduction every 2 hours of increase; evaluating the rest time of the index item for 7 days;

(19) The simulator scoring rules within 7 days: 8 o 'clock late-8 o' clock early, 2 minutes per field; 8 points earlier-8 points later, 1 minute per field; accumulating; evaluation index items: training time points and training sessions of the simulation machine;

(20) The scoring rule is theoretically trained within 7 days: 4 hours and 1 minute, wherein 0.5 minute is added every 2 hours, and training comprises emergency and dangerous goods training; evaluation index items: training time is long;

(21) And (3) scoring rules of flight time and section number factors within 7 days:

evaluation index items: accumulating flight hours and flight segment numbers of 7 days;

(22) Overnight scoring rules over 7 days: continuously standing overnight for 3 days or more: 5. 3 minutes in 1-3 days; regarding the next time within 72 hours from the planned landing time of the external station as the night, and regarding the time exceeding 72 hours as the parking group; evaluation index day overnight within 7 days;

(23) The duty-on frequency scoring rule of the special airport in 7 days: 9 minutes, 3 times, 7 minutes, 2 times, 5 minutes and 1 time, 3 minutes, wherein the rise and fall are calculated once and the seat is calculated; the special airports refer to all airports listed in the operation specification C0003; evaluation index items: the duty frequency of a special airport within 7 days;

(24) Rule for continuous rest time scoring within 30 days: 48 hours is standard, 6 minutes in 48 hours, and one minute is reduced every 4 hours; evaluation index items: the duty task and the duty task rest time;

(25) Simulator scoring rules within 30 days: 8 o 'clock late-8 o' clock early, 0.5 minutes per field; 8 o 'clock earlier-8 o' clock later, 0.25 minutes per field; accumulating; evaluation index items: training time points and training sessions of the simulation machine;

(26) Within 30 days of theoretical training scoring rules: 1 minute after 16 hours, and 1 minute after every 8 hours; training includes emergency and hazardous article training; evaluation index items: the theoretical training time is long;

(27) The scoring rule of flight time and segment number factors in 30 days is as follows:

evaluation index items: accumulating the flying hours and the number of the flights for 30 days;

(28) Overnight/stay number scoring rules over 30 days:

the number of overnight/group retention times is less than 5 times and 2 minutes, and 1 time and 1 minute are added after 1 time; regarding the next time within 72 hours from the planned landing time of the external station as the night, and regarding the time exceeding 72 hours as the parking group;

evaluation index items: standing overnight within 30 days;

(29) The duty-on frequency scoring rule of the special airport in 30 days: 9 minutes for more than 16 times, and 0.5 minute for one time reduction; the rise and fall are calculated once and at the seat; the special airports refer to all airports listed in the operation specification C0003; evaluation index items: number of times of duty in special airport within 30 days

(30) Time of flight scoring rules over 90 days: 260-270 are 9 points; 250-260 is 7 points; 5 points from 240 to 250 and 2 points below 240; evaluation index items: flying hour within 90 days

(31) Health scoring rules: category 3A, category 5B and category 6C, and evaluation index items: a health condition;

(32) Flight qualification scoring rules: aiming at the retraining of dangerous goods, emergency training, annual captain airline inspection, ICAO grade, analog machine retraining and II qualification. Based on the qualification due date, the due date is 9 points, and the reduction is 1 point every 5 days; evaluation index items: remaining effective days of qualification distance flight date

(33) English level scoring rule ICAO5:2 min; ICAO4:3 min; ICAO3:5 min;

evaluating an index term ICAO grade;

(34) Overrun/monitor event scoring rules: typical overrun is: 1 time and 2 minutes, and the period of accumulating 12 months is the period; monitoring an event: 1) Automatic landing ratio, 30-2 points, 2 points increments for each 10% increase, with typical overrun and score accumulation for the monitored event; evaluation index items: automatic landing ratio and typical overrun times for a 12-month pilot;

(35) The flight state scoring rule is as follows: the risk value =10 points-flight status score value, scoring is performed based on nearly 100 flights, and if the score exceeds 8 points threshold, whether entering into a report is pending; the higher the flight state score is, the better the flight wind is, and the lower the risk value is; mutual rating scoring rules: 1. -10 min, preferably 10 min; 0 represents no evaluation, 0 item is removed, and the average score is taken by scoring items; the scoring items include: discipline: preparing the flight in place, implementing a flight program and an inspection list, and implementing company policies and behavior specifications; capability: theoretical knowledge capabilities, equipment use capabilities, flight skills (basic driving skills), teaching/learning capabilities, communication capabilities; evaluation index items: a flight status score;

(36) Career cycle scoring rules: considering the situation of each promotion examination of the pilot and the age of promotion, the initial modification comprises the following steps: the copilot is inspected, and 2 times of examination pass through 3 points, and 3 times of examination pass through 8 points; the length of the elevator is as follows: the captain of the investigation is examined, 2 times of examination pass 3 points, and 3 times of examination pass 8 points;

the long age of the lift: the chief of the investigator is 1-10 times older than 33 years old.

In step S1, the rule of the index items related to the experience of the unit is as follows:

(1) Age structure scoring rules: the length of responsibility mechanism is more than or equal to 3 minutes of 55; not less than 8 minutes of 60; less than 55 years old is 1 point; the number of the steps is increased from 55 to 60 according to the number of 3 to 8; evaluation index items: age;

(2) Safety record scoring rules: the risk period of accident signs is 60 months: 9; severe error risk period 24 months: 7; general error risk 12 months: 3, reducing the risk level of the operator by one gear year by year from the generation of various level events until zero clearing; evaluation index items: the type of the accident;

(3) Character orientation scoring rules: character activity and character activation progress; inward + Inward: 7 min; outward + outward: 6 minutes; impulse + impulse: 8 min; retardation + retardation: 7 min; evaluation index items: matching the character;

(4) The unit scoring rule is as follows: the units belong to different companies, and the flight of the company is not implemented: 3 min; remote operation: remote group-holding flight for more than 72 hours, lack of monitoring for 3 minutes; evaluation index items: whether the personnel is the same company, whether the company has flights, and whether the personnel is in a different place;

(5) Whether there is a foreign nationality scoring rule: the foreign nationality is 6 minutes, the captain of the crew or the copilot has one female flight for 4 minutes, and the risk values are accumulated when the crew has a plurality of female flights; evaluation index items: whether a foreign nationality exists and whether a woman flies;

(6) Technology level combination scoring rules: a1 is 2 points, J is 3 points, M is 4 points, F3 is 2 points, F2 is 3 points, F1 is 4 points, other 1 points, and the grouping is the addition of the two post risk values; evaluation index items: captain technical level and copilot technical level.

In step S2, the aircraft-related risk indicator includes:

(1) The aircraft operation reliability scoring rule is as follows: acquiring reliability data of airplane operation according to the airplane number, wherein the failure rate of hundreds of flight hours is based on the alarm value of the failure rate; lower than a warning value: 1; higher than the alarm value by 30 percent: 2; 30% -50% above a warning value: 3; 4, higher than the alarm value by more than 50 percent; 5, more than 100% higher than the alarm value;

(2) Fault out-of-standard rate in hundred flight hours: not participating in the operation, but serving as a prompt item;

(3) First voyage scoring rule after major repair/exchange: first class after overhaul and exchange of hair: 9;

the first shift after the exchange: 7; the first shift after major repair: 7; the flight time is within 50 hours after the overhaul leaves the factory: 3; 51-100 flight hours after delivery from overhaul: 2; and others: 1;

when the above conditions occur simultaneously, calculating according to the high value of the risk value; evaluation index items: whether to overhaul and change the first shift; whether to change the first shift; whether to overhaul the first class; and the flying hours after the overhaul is out of the field;

(4) The repetitive failure information scoring rule is as follows:

the key system is as follows:

handbook chapter number for aircraft maintenance	Description of the invention
		21-31	Pressure boost
21-32	Pressure boost
		22-11	Automatic driving
22-31	Automatic throttle
		24-11	IDG
24-22	Generator and bus bar control
		24-31	Battery jar
26	Fire protection
		27	Flight control
Chapter 28 all	Fuel oil
		29	Hydraulic pressure
30	Deicing
		32	Landing gear
34	Navigation
		36	Air entraining agent
Chapters 70 to 80	Engine

Three states: newly increased, occurred within one week, and not occurred within one week; new or within a week and is a critical system failure: 3; new or within a week, but not critical system failures: 1; does not occur within a week and is a critical system failure: 2; failure within a week, not a critical system failure: 0; the rule is a risk value of a single repeated fault, the risk value is accumulated according to the number, and the upper limit is 9 points; evaluation index items: whether newly increased or occurred in one week, the number of critical system faults and the number of non-critical system faults;

(5) Operating limits and O-term operation scoring rules:

the key system comprises:

aircraft maintenance manual chapter number	Description of the preferred embodiment
		21-31	Pressure boost
21-32	Pressure boost
		22-11	Automatic driving
22-31	Automatic throttle
		24-11	IDG
24-31	Battery jar
		26	Fire protection
27	Flight control
		28-21	Pressure refueling system
28-22	Fuel pump
		28-25	APU fuel
28-40	Fuel summary display
		28-41	Fuel quantity indicator
29	Hydraulic pressure
		30	De-icing
32	Landing gear
		34	Navigation
36	Air entraining agent
		Chapters 70 to 80	Engine

Operating limits or O terms of critical systems: 2 min; operational restrictions of other systems except chapter 25: 1 minute; o items of other systems except for chapter 25: 1 minute; cumulative by number, upper limit 5 points; evaluation index items: the number of operation limit/O key systems; the number of non-critical systems of operation restriction/O items;

(6) DD reserve number and classification scoring rules:

MEL key system definition:

the first step is as follows: calculating a risk value according to the DD reservation quantity, the DD reservation of the key system: 2. dividing; DD reservation for other systems except chapter 25: 1 minute; cumulative by number, upper limit of 6 points;

the second step is that: according to the DD information, searching a risk value corresponding to the chapter number in MEL structured data, and taking a high value when a plurality of data are acquired;

the third step: calculating a final risk value according to the calculation result of the first step and the calculation result of the second step in a ratio of 4; evaluation index items: and whether the key system and DD reserve the quantity and the airplane attribute reserve the index item but do not participate in the operation, and the weight is set to be 0.

In step S3, the airport, the airline and the flight plan deviation are analyzed, and the airport-related index items are as follows:

(1) Run-time limit/noise reduction/build scoring rules:

consider announcements, time limited information in AIP airport closures, overnight closures, runway closures, no take-off, including take-off airports, destination airports and related take-off yards; the flight participation calculation time usage rule is as follows: preferably, ETD and ETA are used, and if there is no predicted time, STD and STA are used.

Airport take-off: comparing the STD or ETD of the flight with the announcement and AIP limit time, if the STD or ETD of the flight is coincident with the announcement and the AIP limit time, directly puncturing, and setting the risk value to be 10 points; STD or ETD is limited within 1 hour from the running time, and the H class is 9; the STD or ETD is limited to be 1-2 hours from the running time, and the M class is 7; the STD or ETD is limited from 2 hours to 5 hours from the running time, and the L class is divided into 3; the above rule announcement and AIP runtime restriction only consider occurring after the departure time STD or ETD;

destination airport: comparing STA or ETA of the flight with the notice and AIP night ban, and directly breaking down if the STA or ETA of the flight is superposed with the notice and the AIP night ban, wherein the risk value is 10; class H9 within 1 hour of STA or ETA distance run time limit; the distance operation time of STA or ETA is limited to 1 hour to 2 hours, and M is classified into 7 points; the STA or ETA distance operation time is limited to 2-5 hours, and the class L is divided into 3 points;

when the expected arrival time of the target landing site is compared with the notice and AIP night-fall, if the predicted arrival time of the target landing site is superposed, the target landing site is directly punctured, and the risk value is 10; the estimated arrival time of the landing site is 9H within 1 hour of the running time limit; the estimated time and distance to the standby landing site is limited to 7M classes from 1 hour to 2 hours; the estimated time and distance to the standby landing field is limited to 2-5 hours, and the L class is 3;

taking off and landing preparation: taking the take-off time of the take-off airport plus 1 hour as the time for reaching the take-off airport and scoring the same destination airport;

the approach reserve landing field: in the concerned time period of the route standby landing place, the flight landing time of the last route standby landing place needs to be considered, if the operation limit time of each airport is coincident with the concerned time period, the H class is divided into 9, otherwise, the H class is divided into 1;

the AIP midnight ban airport operation time limit information is obtained from the operation standard and manually maintained by a user; evaluation index items: the distance to the airport limits the number of start time hours.

(2) Important announcement scoring rules:

h10, model limit, wingspan limit, fire fighting grade change and snow condition announcement;

h8: running of low visibility programs, announcement of snow conditions, fire fighting grade change and advance connection of flight landing preparation;

m5: runway closing, ILS non-operation, navigation facility non-operation, available runway distance shortening, light facility limitation, maximum takeoff weight limitation, maximum landing weight limitation, refueling capacity limitation, electric source guarantee limitation, flow control, strikes, onboard navigation data notification, company notification and flight department prompt; l3: taxiway closure, model restrictions, and span restrictions;

evaluation index items: announcement type class

(3) Visibility/range scoring rules:

the runway visual range and visibility in the weather message of the predicted use time need to be captured by combining the live condition and forecast in the weather message, and the specific rules are as follows:

calculating the difference value between the expected use time and the current time: using the latest live message within 2 hours; using the latest forecast message for more than 2 hours; according to the rules, if TEMPO in the corresponding message is lower than the standard, the alarm is not broken down. TEMPO is not considered in the METAR report.

Before takeoff, takeoff airport: the takeoff standard takes RVR or visibility 500 meters as reference, and when the visibility is lower than 500 meters, the alarm is not broken down; landing standard: when the visual range or visibility is lower than the operation minimum standard, the alarm is not broken down, and the takeoff and landing reserve field is prompted to be selected;

destination airport: and (4) landing standard: the runway visibility or visibility in the weather message is compared with published standards according to the following specific rules: runway visibility or visibility is less than the minimum standard =10 points for airport operation; on the basis of the lowest standard of airport operation, the risk value is reduced by 1 when the visual distance or visibility of the runway is increased by 1-200 m; a preparation landing field: visibility is less than the stand-by standard =10 points; on the basis of the standard of standby landing, the risk value is reduced by 1 for every 1-200 m increase of visibility

After takeoff: taking-off airport: the visual range and the visibility of the runway are considered, the runway is calculated to be 1 hour after takeoff, and when the visual range and the visibility of the runway are lower than the operating minimum standard, the warning is not broken down;

taking off and landing preparation: considering the visual range and visibility of the runway, calculating to 2 hours after takeoff, and when the visual range and visibility of the runway are lower than the operating minimum standard, giving an alarm without breakdown; destination airport: before taking off at the same time; a preparation landing field: visibility is less than operating minimum =10; on the basis of the minimum operating standard, the risk value is reduced by 1 when the visibility is increased by 1-200 m; selecting logic of airport multi-standard: 1. judging the runway number according to the wind direction and the wind speed, if the downwind of the runway exceeds 5M/S, not using the runway for operation; searching for notice limits according to the runway number, if the airport runway ILS does not work in the expected using period, not using the runway ILS program; if the downwind does not reach 5M/S and no notice limit exists, randomly selecting the lowest standard in the runway program; after release, the evaluation of the take-off ground is combined with the planned take-off time of the computer; the risk value operation only refers to the class I operation standard, and provides a class II standard and a prompt when the risk value operation is lower than the class I operation standard; the alarm is not broken down; when no flight plan exists, the standby landing field does not participate in calculation, but the standby landing environment needs to be evaluated; the assessment of the readiness environment should be passed from flight to flight landing. The selectable touchdown fields of the current flight are obtained from the SOC DM touchdown list, then the risk values of all the selectable touchdown fields are calculated and sequenced, but the calculation of the whole flight is not participated, and a touchdown environment viewing function is added behind each flight on the operation evaluation picture; calculating the risk value of the flight reserve landing place by taking the reserve landing place selected in the flight plan of the computer as the standard; when a plurality of descent fields are selected, the final value is the high value of the risk value, but the score of each descent field needs to be reflected in the evaluation report; evaluation index items: airport visual range/visibility superscript value

(4) Cloud height scoring rules: the cloud height needs to be combined with the live condition and forecast in the weather message, the cloud height in the weather message of the predicted use time is captured, and only BKN/OVC/VV is considered for the cloud height; when the FEW/SCT is lower than DH/MDH published by an airport, only alarming is carried out, and breakdown is not carried out, and the specific rule is as follows: calculating the difference value between the expected use time and the current time: using the latest live message within 2 hours (inclusive); using the latest forecast message for more than 2 hours;

before takeoff, takeoff airport: takeoff criteria do not take cloud height into account, landing criteria: when the cloud height is lower than the minimum standard DH/MDH for landing operation, the alarm is not broken down, and a take-off standby landing field is prompted to be selected; destination airport: cloud height below the operating minimum standard DH/MDH =10; on the basis of the minimum standard of airport operation, the risk value is reduced by 1 when the cloud height is increased by 30 meters; a standby landing field:

the cloud height is less than the standard =10 for the standard of the alternate descent, and on the basis of the standard of the alternate descent, the risk value is reduced by 1 when the cloud height is increased by 30 meters;

after takeoff, takeoff airport: considering only the landing criteria, take-off airport: calculating the cloud height to 1 hour after the takeoff, and when the cloud height is lower than the operation minimum standard, giving an alarm without breakdown; taking off and landing preparation: calculating the cloud height to 2 hours after takeoff, and when the cloud height is lower than the operation minimum standard, giving an alarm without breakdown;

destination airport: cloud height is less than the minimum operating standard DH/MDH =10; on the basis of the minimum standard of airport operation, the risk value is reduced by 1 when the cloud height is increased by 30 meters;

a standby landing field: cloud height less than operational minimum =10; on the basis of the lowest operating standard, the risk value is reduced by 1 for each 30 meters (100 feet) increase of the cloud height; evaluation index items: cloud height superscale value;

(5) Average crosswind scoring rules: average crosswind uses message time reference visual range/visibility and cloud height rules; the crosswind standard only considers positive crosswind;

A. comparing with the model standard, wherein the model standard is H10, and breaking down; 80% -100% of the models are classified into H9, 60% -80% of the model standards are classified into H8, 40% -60% of the model standards are classified into M5, and the model standards below 40% are classified into L3;

B. if the keywords RA, DZ, SN, SG, GR, GS, IC and PL appear in the latest weather live or forecast message, the weather runway is identified as a wet runway;

C. calculating the average crosswind component of each runway, and taking the value with the maximum risk in the set;

D. considering the uncertain wind conditions, the wind direction can be described as 180V230, the range of 180 degrees to 230 degrees is represented, the 180 degrees to 230 degrees are used for matching a runway, and the highest value of the risk value is selected; in addition, the wind direction mark has a VRB mark, which indicates the wind chaos, and the wind direction is calculated according to the positive side wind;

E. crosswind/gust in TEMPO is out of standard and only alarms are not broken down. TEMPO is not considered in the METAR report; evaluation index items: average crosswind rating;

(6) Gust scoring rules: gust standards use message time reference visual range/visibility and cloud height rules; the wind direction is not considered in the gust standard, and only an alarm is given when the gust standard is higher than the machine type limit, and breakdown is not caused; evaluation index items: gust wind class;

(7) Downwind scoring rules: the wind uses the message time reference visual range/visibility and cloud height rule; the interface is reserved in the downwind direction, and the downwind direction only considers the Wulanbaroto airport at present, and the special approved airplane B737-800: when B5422/B5423/B5425/B5497/B5500/B5570 operates, when the downwind value of an R32 takeoff/R14 landing runway exceeds 7.7M/S, the runway is directly punctured for 10 minutes, and when the downwind value is 6-7.7M/S, H8 is adopted; when the downwind value of the R32 takeoff/R14 landing runway of other airplanes exceeds 5M/S, the breakdown is directly carried out for 10 minutes, and when the downwind value is 4-5M/S, H8 is carried out; evaluation index items: downwind grade;

(8) Weather phenomenon scoring rules: the weather phenomenon uses the message time reference visual range/visibility and cloud height rules; h is 9 min/M is 5/L is 3; considering the airport operation time period, the weather phenomenon in the weather message is taken as the main reason; weather phenomenon + rain, direct breakdown, H10; the weather phenomenon plus rain of a time period of 1 hour plus the estimated takeoff time is considered in the takeoff airport, and the weather phenomenon plus rain of the estimated arrival time is considered in other airports;

the qualifier: intensity or proximity to airport extent: "-" slight, small; medium strength "+" strong, large; VC is nearby;

the descriptor: low MI/BC patch/PR fraction/DR;

blown/BL high blown/SH paroxysmal/TS thunderstorm/FZ frozen;

weather phenomenon: 1. precipitation: DZ wool rain/RA rain/SN snow/SG rice snow/IC ice crystals/PL ice particles/GR hail/GS hail andor aragonite; 2. visual range disorders: BR light fog/FG fog/FU smoke/VA volcanic ash/DU floating dust/SA sand/HZ haze; 3. and others: PO dust, sand cyclone, dust cyclone/SQ squall/FC funnel cloud, land tornado, water tornado/SS sandstorm/DS storm/WS wind shear;

class H weather phenomena:

1. PO, FC, VA, SQ, GR, WS, IC to any degree;

2. SN, RA, SG, PL, DS, SS, GS to a medium or higher degree or with other descriptions;

3. TS and any degree of weather phenomenon with TS;

the M types of weather phenomena:

1. minor degrees SS, DS, GS, SN, RA, SG, PL;

2. the following weather phenomena and FG, FU, DU, SA, HZ with other descriptions;

class L weather phenomena: DZ, BR; evaluation index items: a weather phenomenon rating.

The relevant index items of the flight line are as follows:

(1) Weather restriction scoring rules:

volcanic ash:

the air route part: before release, the affected air routes provided by the intelligence electronic chart are scored according to the height if the affected time is superposed with the flight operation time period: l3 below FL 200; FL200-250M5; h8 over FL 250;

after packaging is finished, when the flight lands, the flight plan of the computer is compared with the actual affected area of the volcanic ash message, if the flight is affected, scoring is carried out according to the height: l5 below FL 200; FL200-250M8; h10 over FL 250;

typhoon:

the route part: before release, providing an affected air route through an information electronic chart, wherein if the affected time is coincident with the flight operation time period, H10; after packaging is finished, until the flight lands, comparing the flight plan of the computer with the affected area of the actual typhoon message, if the flight is affected, H10;

bumpy ice-accretion areas: and (4) grading according to the height and degree of the bumping and ice accretion by using the WNI data as a basis, wherein the time validity of the bumping and ice accretion data is 24 hours.

Classification of the degree of jounce influence:

mild: 1,5,9, 15, 16, 17;

moderate: 2,6, 10;

severe: 3, 11, 21, 22, 23;

extremely severe: 12 13, 14;

classifying the ice accretion influence degree:

mild: 1,2,3;

medium: 4,5,6;

severe: 7,8,9;

severe H8; moderate M5; mild L2;

evaluation index items: the influence degree of volcanic ash on the air section, the influence height of volcanic ash, the influence degree of typhoon, the influence degree of severe bumping and ice accumulation on the air section and the air section;

(2) Announcement restriction scoring rules:

the method mainly aims at scoring the forbidden navigation limit and is divided into the conditions of a non-DM flight plan and a DM flight plan:

case of DM-free flight plan:

comparing the flight operation time with the no-navigation time, wherein the difference between the no-navigation time and the flight operation time is less than 1 hour, including time coincidence, and the class H is divided into 8; the difference between the flight prohibition time and the flight operation time is within 1-2 hours, and the M classes are divided into 5 points; the difference between the flight prohibition time and the flight operation time is within 2-5 hours, and the class L is divided into 3 points;

case with DM flight plan: the planned flight height is within the range of the forbidden altitude, the time is coincident, the breakdown is carried out, and the H class is 10; the planned flight height is not influenced, but the planned flight height is limited in height influence and time coincidence after being expanded up and down by 2 height layers, and the H type is 8; the flight height is planned to be expanded up and down by 2 height layers and then the influence of the height is limited, the time margin is 0-1 hour, and the H class is 8; the influence of limited height after 2 height layers are expanded up and down on the planned flight height, and the time margin is within 1-2 hours, and M classes are divided into 5 classes; the influence of limited height after 2 height layers are expanded up and down on the planned flight height, and the time margin is in L class 3 within 2-5 hours; evaluation index items: advertising a restriction level;

(3) Customizing a limiting area scoring rule: and setting a manual maintenance route as an HML, and converting the background into a score. Deleting the original function of the user-defined restricted area; evaluation index items: custom rating

(4) The air route operation characteristic scoring rule is as follows: the airline risk database needs to be sorted;

evaluation index items: airline operating score

The flight plan deviation related index items are as follows:

(1) Yaw scoring rules: yawing in 100 nautical miles and above and directly breaking through H types 10; yawing for 50-100 nautical miles, and taking ten nautical miles as units, wherein the risk value 5 is sequentially upwards +1; for example, yaw 67 nautical miles, a risk value of 6; a risk value of 1 below 50 nautical miles; after 30 minutes of takeoff, and before 30 minutes of landing as the starting and ending time of yaw calculation;

evaluation index items: a number of nautical miles;

(2) Oil consumption deviation scoring rule: risk value M5: the actual residual oil quantity of the ACARS is less than the standby oil quantity + the model waits for the oil quantity in 60 minutes or less than the planned residual oil quantity-X (X: C-class airplane =1000KG, D-class airplane =2000KG, the risk value H8 is that the actual residual oil quantity of the ACARS is less than the standby oil quantity in 45 minutes or less than the planned residual oil quantity-Y (Y: C-class airplane =2000KG, D-class airplane =4000KG; the risk value H10 is that the actual residual oil quantity of the ACARS is less than the standby oil quantity in 30 minutes + the model waits for the oil quantity or less than the planned residual oil quantity-Z (Z: C-class airplane =3000KG; the evaluation index item is fuel consumption deviation.

In the step S4, weights are obtained according to expert scoring aiming at the given risk index systems in the two stages of before-takeoff and after-takeoff. According to the evaluation index items of all indexes of the index system, a judgment rule is made by a fuzzy comprehensive judgment method based on flight risk weight, and the risk value of the parent node is obtained by the weight of the child node at the same level and a risk item quantity fuzzy judgment matrix.

The method takes human, machine and ring as child nodes, and three typical cases are used for explaining how to use the risk assessment method to assess the risk for the flight. Specifically, the risk values evaluated by the corresponding flight are evaluated respectively for the risk values of two groups of people, rings and machines of the flight:

(1) The risk vector of human, ring, machine is (9,7,5);

(2) The risk vector for human, ring, and machine is (7,9,5). The fuzzy evaluation matrix when the risk vectors of people, rings and machines are (9, 7, 5) and (7, 9, 5) is obtained by the trapezoidal membership function as follows:

and

the invention has the advantages that: through risk index evaluation of three dimensions of human (aircraft) units and environments, all influencing factors in the processes of dispatching and operation monitoring are identified, analyzed, evaluated and controlled through an evaluation system. The method has the advantages that the functions of quantitative calculation, risk evaluation and risk early warning of flight operation risks are realized, the most critical risk factors are rapidly judged, real-time auxiliary decision support is provided for flight operation risk management and control, and the functions of risk mitigation, risk continuous monitoring and the like are realized.

Detailed Description

The invention is further described below in conjunction with specific embodiments, and the advantages and features of the invention will become more apparent as the description proceeds. These examples are illustrative only and do not limit the scope of the present invention in any way. It will be understood by those skilled in the art that various changes in form and details may be made therein without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention, and that such changes and modifications may be made without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention.

The invention relates to a risk assessment method based on human, aircraft and environment data quantification, wherein the risk assessment comprises two stages before take-off and after take-off, and each stage is respectively used for risk assessment by establishing an index system from three parts of an aircraft crew, an aircraft and an environment; the method specifically comprises the following steps:

s2, analyzing a related risk index system of the airplane;

s3, analyzing an environment-related risk index system;

and S4, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of flight risk weight.

In the crew member in the step S1, the index items related to captain/copilot are as follows:

(1) The flight time of the machine type: and (3) grading rules: the pilot is divided into classes of trainees, observers F0-F3, copiers F2, captain M, special class J and class instructors A1, and the classes are divided according to the classification rule: a1: 0-50 hours 6 minutes, 50-100 hours 5 minutes, and one minute is reduced when every 50 hours is increased; j: 0-100 hours and 6 minutes, and one minute is reduced when every 100 hours is increased; m: 0-100 hours and 6 minutes, and one minute is reduced when every 100 hours is increased; f3: 0-100 hours and 6 minutes, and one minute is reduced when every 100 hours is increased; f2: 0-100 hours and 6 minutes, and one minute is reduced when every 100 hours is increased; the time range is calculated from the driving of the local model;

(2) The machine type starting and falling times scoring rule is as follows: a1: 0-5, 4 minutes, and one minute is reduced when 5 pieces are added; j: 0-10, 5 minutes, and one minute is reduced when 5 pieces are added; m: 0-15, 6 minutes, and one minute is reduced when 5 pieces are added; the time range is calculated from the day of evaluating the technical grade;

(3) Last flight scoring rules: the captain: 8 minutes in 90 days, one minute in every 10 days, normal in 20 days, copilot: the time is 8 minutes in 90 days, one minute is reduced every 10 days, the time is normal in 20 days, only flight experience data is received, whether the flight experience data is in a seat or not is judged, and a simulator is not calculated; evaluating the number of flying days of the captain of the index item from the last time to the present day and the number of flying days of the copilot from the last time to the present day;

(4) Recent landing gear experience scoring rules: machine length: the model does not contain a simulator, wherein 0-3 operation rises and falls within 30 days for 6 minutes, and the operation is reduced by 1 minute when 1 operation is added; and (3) copilot driving: the operation of 0-5 of the machine type within 30 days rises and falls for 6 minutes, and the operation is reduced by 1 minute when 2 of the machine type are increased; time range: 1 rise and fall is calculated in one flight segment; evaluation index item captain: landing times within 30 days, copilot: the number of landing times in 30 days;

(5) The work experience scoring rules are as follows: model difference is modified to change the wave sound system from the air passenger system to the wave sound system for 6 minutes within 1 month, and the wave sound system returns to zero after 12 months; 4, converting the wave sound into the airbus, and evaluating the modification type of the index item, converting the airbus into the wave sound and converting the wave sound into the airbus for a long time;

(6) Airport experience scoring rules: flying for 8 minutes in the airport for the first time, reducing 2 minutes every time of flying, calculating the airport experience without considering whether to sit on the seat or not, and counting the data of the last year; evaluation index items: pilot airport times within one year;

(7) Airline experience scoring rules: flying the flight line for the first time for 8 minutes, and subtracting 2 minutes from each flying time; flying can be carried out without considering whether the passenger sits on the airplane or not, and the passenger plane does not calculate and the landing does not calculate; counting data of the last year according to the urban pair judgment; evaluation index items: flight path experience;

(8) Comprehensive ability evaluation scoring rules: the personnel above the chief of each team score and respectively input the job number of the pilot and the additional risk score; the additional score is directly used as an evaluation risk value; evaluation index items: evaluating the score;

(9) The rest period scoring rules between duty periods are as follows: if the duty period is the same day, the task book is not received, and the actual ending date of the previous flight cannot be obtained; manual time: 9 minutes after 9 hours; reducing the weight by 1 minute when adding 1 hour; the duty cycle calculation rules are as follows: subtracting the starting time of the duty cycle from the ending time of the duty cycle to subtract the rest period generated by overlong station passing time, wherein the starting time of the duty cycle is the preparation time before the first mission, and if the flight is delayed and the preparation time before the delayed post-voyage is greater than the originally planned takeoff time, taking the preparation time before the delayed post-voyage as the duty starting time); the end time of the duty period is the last task departure time of the complete task period; when the difference in the multi-flight section is more than 4 hours, the interval time of the flight sections needs to be subtracted from the duty time;

preparation time before flight: the preparation time before the international flight is 2 hours and 10 minutes before the scheduled takeoff; the preparation time before the flight in China is 1 hour and 50 minutes before the planned take-off; the off-field time after the international and domestic aviation is 30 minutes after landing;

in two continuous flight segments, the departure time from the front segment to the rear segment between the landing of the front segment is less than or equal to 9 hours and is counted as a return flight, and the return flight is counted as a duty period, and the duty period is cut off when the duty period is more than 9 hours;

in the case of riding, the attendance period is counted, the reporting time is counted from 1 hour before the departure until the departure of the next flight segment, and the attendance period counting rule is also followed when the station passing time exceeds 4 hours. The passengers returning to the base after the task is finished do not count the duty period and the rest period. The rest period is calculated from the period of no duty;

flight hours are not counted in the process of riding the aircraft, flight hours are not counted in the process of training the simulation machine, but an attendance period is counted, and index items are evaluated: a rest time;

(11) Check-in time scoring rules: check in 7 points before 22 o 'clock to 5 o' clock in the previous day; 5 points to 6 points, sign in for 6 points; 6-7 points check in for 5 minutes, and after 7 points check in for 2 minutes after 22 points; calculating check-in time by reversely pushing for 2 hours and 10 minutes in international take-off time and reversely pushing for 1 hour and 50 minutes in domestic take-off time; evaluation index items: a time of check-in;

(12) Plan on duty time scoring rules:

single group: 14 hours; strong group: 16-18 hours; double groups: 20 hours is used as a manual standard for inputting; the planning time is 8 minutes, and the time is reduced by 2 minutes when 1 hour is reduced; evaluating the unit capacity of the index item;

(13) Whether the duty period crosses the zero point scoring rule: if the route is single-section route more than 7 hours, the zero crossing point is 7 minutes; a single section of the air route with the time less than 7 hours, if the zero crossing point is 3 minutes; the actual landing time of the flight is taken as the standard; evaluating whether the index item is single-section more than 7 hours and crosses 0 point;

(14) The scoring rule of the number of flight segments in the duty period is as follows: 1-3 is 2 minutes, and more than 4 is 5 minutes; evaluating the number of the flights of the index item in the duty period;

(15) Special route scoring rules: 8 minutes are taken on the polar region route; 8 minutes are taken on an African route; evaluating the performance of the index route;

(16) The lane time scoring rule is as follows: 8 hours and 5 minutes, and 1.5 minutes is added every two hours; evaluation index items: flight hours of the flight route;

(18) Rule for continuous rest time scoring within 7 days: 36 hours is standard and regulated by regulations. And 5 minutes. One-minute reduction every 2 hours of increase; evaluating the rest time of the index item for 7 days;

(19) The simulator scoring rules within 7 days: 8 o 'clock late-8 o' clock early, 2 minutes per field; 8 o 'clock in the morning-8 o' clock in the evening, and 1 minute in each field; accumulating; evaluation index items: training time points and training sessions of the simulation machine;

(20) The scoring rule is theoretically trained within 7 days: 4 hours and 1 minute, and 0.5 minute is added every 2 hours, and the training comprises emergency and dangerous goods training; evaluation index items: training duration;

(22) Overnight scoring rules over 7 days: standing overnight for 3 days or more: 5. 3 minutes in 1-3 days; regarding the next time within 72 hours from the planned take-off time of the outstation as an overnight day, and regarding the time exceeding 72 hours as a stationary group; evaluation index day overnight within 7 days;

(23) The duty-on frequency scoring rule of the special airport in 7 days: 9 minutes, 7 minutes, 5 minutes and 3 minutes for 4 times or more, 2 times, 1 time and 3 minutes, wherein the rising and falling are calculated according to one time and the sitting position; the special airports refer to all airports listed in the operation specification C0003; evaluation index items: the duty frequency of a special airport within 7 days;

(24) Rule for continuous rest time scoring within 30 days: 48 hours is standard, 48 hours is 6 minutes, and one minute is reduced when every 4 hours is increased; evaluation index items: duty tasks and duty task rest time;

(27) The scoring rule of the flight time and the segment number factor in 30 days is as follows:

evaluation index items: accumulating the flying hours and the number of the flight segments for 30 days;

(28) Overnight/stay number scoring rules over 30 days:

the number of overnight/group retention times is less than 5 times and 2 minutes, and 1 time and 1 minute are added after 1 time; regarding the next time within 72 hours from the planned take-off time of the outstation as an overnight day, and regarding the time exceeding 72 hours as a stationary group;

evaluation index items: standing overnight and standing for 30 days;

(29) The duty-on frequency scoring rule of the special airport in 30 days: 9 minutes are added for more than 16 times, and 0.5 minute is reduced for one time; the rise and fall are calculated once and at the seat; the special airports refer to all airports listed in the operation specification C0003; evaluation index items: number of times of duty in special airport within 30 days

(32) Flight qualification scoring rules: aiming at the retraining, emergency training, annual captain and airline inspection, ICAO grade, analog retraining and II qualification of dangerous goods. Based on the qualification due date, the due date is 9 points, and the rate is reduced by 1 point every 5 days; evaluation index items: remaining valid days of qualification distance flight date

(33) English level scoring rule ICAO5:2 min; ICAO4:3 min; ICAO3:5 min;

evaluating the index item ICAO grade;

(34) Overrun/monitoring event scoring rules: typical overrun is: 1 time and 2 minutes, and the period of accumulating 12 months is the period; monitoring events: 1) Automatic landing ratio, 30-2 points, 2 points increments for each 10% increase, with typical overrun and score accumulation for the monitored event; evaluation index items: automatic landing proportion and typical overrun times of 12-month pilots;

(35) And (3) a flight state scoring rule: the risk value =10 points-flight status score value, scoring is performed based on nearly 100 flights, and if the score exceeds 8 points threshold, whether entering into a report is pending; the higher the flight state score is, the better the flight wind is, and the lower the risk value is; mutual evaluation scoring rules: 1. -10 min, preferably 10 min; 0 represents no evaluation, 0 items are removed, and the average score is taken by scoring items; the scoring items include: discipline: preparing the flight in place, implementing a flight program and an inspection list, and implementing company policies and behavior specifications; capability: theoretical knowledge capabilities, equipment use capabilities, flight skills (basic driving skills), teaching/learning capabilities, communication capabilities; evaluation index items: a flight status score;

(36) Career cycle scoring rules: considering the situation of each promotion examination of the pilot and the age of promotion, the initial modification comprises the following steps: the copilot is inspected, and 2 times of examination pass through 3 points, and 3 times of examination pass through 8 points; the length of the elevator is as follows: the length of the investigation machine is 3 points after 2 times of examination and 8 points after 3 times of examination;

In step S1, the rule of the index items related to the unit experience is as follows:

(1) Age structure scoring rules: the length of responsibility machine is more than or equal to 3 minutes of 55; not less than 8 minutes of 60; less than 55 years old is 1 point; the number of the steps is increased from 55 to 60 according to the number of 3 to 8; evaluation index items: age;

(2) Safety record scoring rules: the risk period of accident signs is 60 months: 9; severe error risk period 24 months: 7; general error risk 12 months: 3, reducing the risk level of the operator by one gear year by year from the generation of various level events until zero clearing; evaluation index items: the type of accident;

(3) Character orientation scoring rules: character activity and character activation progress; inward + Inward: 7 min; outward + outward: 6 min; impulse + impulse: 8 min; retardation + retardation: 7 min;

evaluation index items: matching the character patterns;

(4) The unit scoring rule is as follows: the units belong to different companies, and the flight of the company is not executed: 3 min; remote operation: remote group-holding flight for more than 72 hours, lack of monitoring for 3 minutes; evaluation index items: whether the personnel is the same company, whether the company has flights, and whether the personnel is in a different place;

(6) Technical level combination scoring rules: a1 is 2 points, J is 3 points, M is 4 points, F3 is 2 points, F2 is 3 points, F1 is 4 points, and other 1 points are added up by two post risk values; evaluation index items: captain technical level and copilot technical level.

In step S2, the aircraft-related risk indicator includes:

(1) The aircraft operation reliability scoring rule is as follows: acquiring reliability data of airplane operation according to the number, acquiring a failure rate of hundreds of flight hours, and taking an alarm value of the failure rate as a reference; below a warning value: 1; higher than the alarm value by 30 percent: 2; 30% -50% higher than the alarm value: 3; 4, more than 50% higher than the alarm value; 5, higher than the alarm value by more than 100 percent;

(2) Fault exceeding rate in hundred flight hours: not participating in the operation, but serving as a prompt item;

the first shift after the hair exchange: 7; the first class after overhaul: 7; the flight time is within 50 hours after the overhaul leaves the factory: 3; 51-100 flight hours after delivery from overhaul: 2; and others: 1;

when the conditions occur simultaneously, calculating according to the high value of the risk value; evaluation index items: whether to overhaul or change the first shift; whether to change the first shift; whether to overhaul the first class; and the flying hours after the overhaul is out of the field;

(4) The repetitive failure information scoring rule is as follows:

the key system is as follows:

aircraft maintenance manual chapter number	Description of the preferred embodiment
		21-31	Pressure boost
21-32	Pressure boost
		22-11	Automatic driving
22-31	Automatic throttle
		24-11	IDG
24-22	Generator and bus bar control
		24-31	Battery jar
26	Fire protection
		27	Flight control
Chapter 28 all	Fuel oil
		29	Hydraulic pressure
30	De-icing
		32	Landing gear
34	Navigation
		36	Air entraining agent
Chapter 70 to chapter 80	Engine

Three states: newly increased, occurred within one week, and not occurred within one week; new or within a week, and is a critical system failure: 3; new or within a week, but not critical system failures: 1; does not occur within a week and is a critical system failure: 2; failure within a week, and not critical system failure: 0; the rule is a risk value of a single repeated fault, the risk value is accumulated according to the number, and the upper limit is 9 points; evaluation index items: whether newly increased or occurred within one week, the number of critical system faults and the number of non-critical system faults;

(5) Operating limits and O-term operation scoring rules:

the key system is as follows:

operating limits or O terms of critical systems: 2 min; operational restrictions of other systems except chapter 25: 1 minute; o items of other systems except for chapter 25: 1 minute; cumulative by number, upper limit 5 points; evaluation index items: the number of operation limit/O key systems; the number of operation limitation/O item non-key systems;

(6) DD reserve quantity and classification scoring rules:

MEL key system definition:

aircraft maintenance manual chapter number	Description of the preferred embodiment
		21-31	Pressure boost
21-32	Pressure boost
		22-11	Automatic driving
22-31	Automatic throttle
		24-11	IDG
24-31	Battery jar
		26	Fire protection
27	Flight control
		28-21	Pressure refueling system
28-22	Fuel pump
		28-25	APU fuel
28-40	Fuel summary display
		28-41	Fuel oil mass indicator (cockpit)
29	Hydraulic pressure
		30	De-icing
32	Landing gear
		34	Navigation
36	Air entraining agent
		Chapter 70 to chapter 80	Engine

The first step is as follows: calculating a risk value according to the DD reservation quantity, and reserving the DD of the key system: 2. dividing; DD reservation for other systems except chapter 25: 1 minute; cumulative by number, upper limit of 6 points;

(1) Run-time limit/noise reduction/build scoring rules:

consider announcements, time limited information in AIP airport closures, overnight closures, runway closures, no take-off, including take-off airports, destination airports and related take-off yards; the usage rule of the flight participation calculation time is as follows: preferably, ETD and ETA are used, and if there is no predicted time, STD and STA are used.

Airport take-off: comparing the STD or ETD of the flight with the notice and AIP limit time, if the STD or ETD of the flight is coincident with the notice and the AIP limit time, directly puncturing, and setting the risk value to be 10 points; STD or ETD is limited within 1 hour from the running time, and the H class is 9; the STD or ETD is limited to be 1-2 hours from the running time, and the M class is 7; the STD or ETD is limited from 2 hours to 5 hours from the running time, and the L class is divided into 3; the above rule notification and AIP runtime restrictions are only considered to occur after the takeoff time STD or ETD;

destination airport: comparing STA or ETA of the flight with the notice and AIP night ban, and directly breaking down if the STA or ETA of the flight is superposed with the notice and the AIP night ban, wherein the risk value is 10; class H9 within 1 hour of STA or ETA distance operation time limit; the distance operation time of STA or ETA is limited to 1 hour to 2 hours, and M is classified into 7 points; the STA or ETA distance operation time is limited to 2-5 hours, and the class L is divided into 3 points;

the method comprises the following steps of (1) preparing a landing field for a navigation: in the concerned time period of the route standby landing place, the flight landing time of the last route standby landing place needs to be considered, if the operation limiting time of each airport is coincident with the concerned time period, the H class is 9, otherwise, the H class is 1;

(2) Important announcement scoring rules:

evaluation index items: announcement type class

(3) Visibility/range scoring rules:

the runway visual range and visibility need to be combined with the live and forecast in the weather message to capture the runway visual range or visibility in the weather message with the predicted use time, and the specific rules are as follows:

calculating the difference value between the expected use time and the current time: using the latest live message within 2 hours; using the latest forecast message for more than 2 hours; according to the rule, if TEMPO in the corresponding message is lower than the standard, the alarm is not broken down. TEMPO is not considered in the METAR report.

Before takeoff, takeoff airport: the takeoff standard takes RVR or visibility 500 meters as reference, and when the visibility is lower than 500 meters, the alarm is not broken down; landing standard: when the visual range or visibility is lower than the operation minimum standard, the alarm is not broken down, and the takeoff and landing reserve is prompted to be selected;

destination airport: landing standard: the runway visibility or visibility in the weather message is compared with published standards according to the following specific rules: runway visibility or visibility is less than the minimum standard =10 points for airport operation; on the basis of the minimum standard of airport operation, the risk value is reduced by 1 when the visual distance or visibility of the runway is increased by 1-200 m; a standby landing field: visibility is less than the stand-by standard =10 points; on the basis of the standard of standby landing, the risk value is reduced by 1 for every 1-200 m increase of visibility

taking off and landing preparation: considering the visual range and visibility of the runway, calculating to 2 hours after takeoff, and when the visual range and visibility of the runway are lower than the operating minimum standard, giving an alarm without breakdown; destination airport: before taking off at the same time; a preparation landing field: visibility is less than operating minimum =10; on the basis of the minimum operating standard, the risk value is reduced by 1 when the visibility is increased by 1-200 m; selection logic of airport multi-criteria: 1. judging the runway number according to the wind direction and the wind speed, if the downwind of the runway exceeds 5M/S, not using the runway for operation; searching for notice limits according to the runway number, if the airport runway ILS does not work in the expected using period, not using the runway ILS program; if the downwind does not reach 5M/S and no notice limit exists, randomly selecting the lowest standard in a runway program; after release, the evaluation of the take-off ground is combined with the planned take-off time of the computer; the risk value operation only refers to the I-type operation standard, and provides a II-type standard and prompt when the risk value operation is lower than the I-type operation standard; the alarm is not broken down; when no flight plan exists, the standby landing field does not participate in calculation, but the standby landing environment needs to be evaluated; the assessment of the readiness environment should be released from flight to flight landing. The selectable landing fields of the current flight are obtained from the SOC DM landing list, then the risk values of all the selectable landing fields are calculated and sequenced, but the calculation of the whole flight is not participated, and a landing environment checking function is added behind each flight on the operation evaluation picture; calculating the flight reserve landing risk value based on the reserve landing station selected in the computer flight plan; when a plurality of descent fields are selected, the final value is the high value of the risk value, but the score of each descent field needs to be reflected in the evaluation report; evaluation index items: airport visual range/visibility super-standard value

(4) Cloud height scoring rules: the cloud height needs to be combined with the live condition and forecast in the weather message, the cloud height in the weather message of the predicted use time is captured, and only BKN/OVC/VV is considered in the cloud height; when FEW/SCT is lower than DH/MDH published by an airport, only alarming is carried out, and breakdown is not carried out, and the specific rule is as follows: calculating the difference value between the predicted use time and the current time: using the latest live message within 2 hours (inclusive); using the latest forecast message for more than 2 hours;

before takeoff, takeoff airport: takeoff criteria do not take cloud height into account, landing criteria: when the cloud height is lower than the minimum standard DH/MDH for landing operation, the alarm is not broken down, and a take-off and landing reserve is prompted to be selected; destination airport: cloud height below the operating minimum standard DH/MDH =10; on the basis of the minimum standard of airport operation, the risk value is reduced by 1 when the cloud height is increased by 30 meters; a preparation landing field:

the cloud height is less than the standard for standby =10, on the basis of the standard of the standby landing, the risk value is reduced by 1 when the cloud height is increased by 30 meters;

destination airport: cloud height is less than the minimum operating standard DH/MDH =10; on the basis of the lowest operating standard of an airport, the risk value is reduced by 1 when the cloud height is increased by 30 meters;

(5) Average crosswind scoring rules: the average crosswind uses the message time reference visual range/visibility and cloud height rules; the crosswind standard only considers positive crosswind;

D. considering the uncertain wind condition, the wind direction can be described as 180V230, the range of 180 degrees to 230 degrees is represented, the 180 degrees to 230 degrees are used for matching with the runway, and the highest value of the risk value is selected; in addition, the wind direction mark is provided with a VRB mark, which indicates the wind disorderly, and the wind direction is indefinite and is directly calculated according to the positive crosswind;

(6) Gust scoring rules: the gust standard uses the message time reference visual range/visibility and cloud height rules; the wind direction is not considered in the gust standard, and only an alarm is given when the gust standard is higher than the machine type limit, and breakdown is not caused; evaluation index items: gust wind class;

(7) Downwind scoring rules: wind message time reference visual range/visibility and cloud height rules; the interface is reserved in the downwind direction, and the downwind direction only considers the Wulanbaroto airport at present, and the special approved airplane B737-800: when B5422/B5423/B5425/B5497/B5500/B5570 operates, when the downwind value of an R32 takeoff/R14 landing runway exceeds 7.7M/S, the runway is directly punctured for 10 minutes, and when the downwind value is 6-7.7M/S, H8 is adopted; when the downwind value of the R32 takeoff/R14 landing runway of other airplanes exceeds 5M/S, the breakdown is directly carried out for 10 minutes, and when the downwind value is 4-5M/S, H8 is carried out; evaluation index items: downwind grade;

(8) Weather phenomenon scoring rules: the weather phenomenon uses the message time reference visual range/visibility and cloud height rules; h is 9 min/M: 5/L:3; considering the airport operation time period, the weather phenomenon in the weather message is taken as the main factor; weather phenomenon exists + rain, and direct breakdown is performed, H10; the method comprises the following steps that a weather phenomenon and rain in a time period of 1 hour plus a predicted take-off time are considered in a take-off airport, and other airports are the weather phenomenon and rain in a predicted arrival time;

the descriptor: low/DR of shallow/BC flake/PR fraction;

blown/BL high blown/SH paroxysmal/TS thunderstorm/FZ frozen;

weather phenomenon: 1. precipitation: DZ hair rain/RA rain/SN snow/SG rice snow/IC ice crystal/PL ice particle/GR hail/GS hail andor aragonite; 2. visual range disorders: BR light fog/FG fog/FU smoke/VA volcanic ash/DU floating dust/SA sand/HZ haze; 3. and others: PO dust, sand whirlwind, dust cyclone/SQ squall/FC funnel cloud, land tornado, water tornado/SS sandstorm/DS storm/WS wind shear;

weather phenomena of the H type:

1. PO, FC, VA, SQ, GR, WS, IC to any degree;

2. SN, RA, SG, PL, DS, SS, GS to moderate or above levels or with other descriptions;

3. TS and any degree of weather phenomenon with TS;

the M types of weather phenomena:

1. minor degrees SS, DS, GS, SN, RA, SG, PL;

l-type weather phenomena: DZ, BR; evaluation index items: a weather phenomenon rating.

The relevant index items of the flight line are as follows:

(1) Weather restriction scoring rules:

volcanic ash:

the route part: before release, the affected air routes provided by the information electronic chart are scored according to the height if the affected time is coincident with the flight operation time period: l3 below FL 200; FL200-250M5; h8 over FL 250;

typhoon:

the air route part: before release, providing an affected air route through an information electronic chart, wherein if the affected time is coincident with the flight operation time period, H10; after packaging is finished, until the flight lands, comparing the flight plan of the computer with the affected area of the actual typhoon message, if the flight is affected, H10;

Grading the degree of the bumping influence:

mild: 1,5,9, 15, 16, 17;

medium: 2,6, 10;

severe: 3, 11, 21, 22, 23;

extremely serious: 12 13, 14;

classifying the ice accretion influence degree:

mild: 1,2,3;

moderate: 4,5,6;

severe: 7,8,9;

severe H8; medium M5; mild L2;

evaluation index items: the influence degree of the volcanic ash on the sailing section, the height of the volcanic ash, the sailing section influenced by typhoon, the sailing section influenced by severe bumping and ice accumulation and the severe bumping and ice accumulation;

(2) Announcement restriction scoring rules:

case of no DM flight plan:

comparing the flight operation time with the no-navigation time, wherein the difference between the no-navigation time and the flight operation time is less than 1 hour, including time coincidence, and the class H is divided into 8; the difference between the flight prohibition time and the flight operation time is within 1-2 hours, and the M is 5 points; the difference between the flight prohibition time and the flight operation time is within 2-5 hours, and the class L is divided into 3 points;

case with DM flight plan: the planned flight height is within the range of the forbidden flight height, the time is coincident, the breakdown is carried out, and the class H is 10; the planned flight height is not influenced, but the planned flight height is limited in height influence and time coincidence after being expanded up and down by 2 height layers, and the H type is 8; the flight height is planned to be expanded up and down by 2 height layers and then limited by height influence, the time margin is 0-1 hour, and the H class is divided into 8; the influence of limited height after 2 height layers are expanded up and down on the planned flight height, and the time margin is within 1-2 hours, and M classes are divided into 5 classes; the influence of limited height is generated after 2 height layers are expanded up and down on the planned flight height, and the time margin is classified into L3 within 2-5 hours; evaluation index items: advertising a restriction level;

(3) Self-defining the scoring rule of the limiting area: and setting a manual maintenance route as an HML, and converting the background into a score. Deleting the original function of the user-defined restricted area; evaluation index items: custom rating

evaluation index items: airline operating score

The relevant index items of the flight plan deviation are as follows:

(1) Yaw scoring rules: directly breaking through H type 10 points in 100 nautical miles and above in a yawing way; yawing for 50-100 nautical miles, and taking ten nautical miles as units, wherein the risk value 5 is sequentially upwards +1; for example, 67 nautical miles off, a risk value of 6; a risk value of 1 below 50 nautical miles; after 30 minutes of takeoff, and before 30 minutes of landing as the starting and ending time of yaw calculation;

evaluation index items: a number of nautical miles;

(2) Oil consumption deviation scoring rule: risk value M5: the actual residual ACARS oil quantity is less than the standby oil quantity + the model waits for oil quantity in 60 minutes or is less than the planned residual oil quantity-X (X: C class aircraft =1000KG, risk value H8: ACARS actual residual oil quantity is less than the standby oil quantity + the model waits for oil quantity in 45 minutes or is less than the planned residual oil quantity-Y (Y: C class aircraft =2000KG, D class aircraft =4000KG; risk value H10: ACARS actual residual oil quantity is less than the standby oil quantity + the model waits for oil quantity in 30 minutes or is less than the planned residual oil quantity-Z (Z: C class aircraft =3000KG, D class aircraft =6000KG; evaluation index item is fuel consumption deviation.

The step S4 specifically includes:

the method comprises a weight judgment method and a fuzzy judgment method;

setting child nodes C1, C2, right and Cn, sequencing contribution sizes of risk values of parent nodes for risk factors represented by each child node, namely determining weights W1, W2, right and Wn, calculating membership degree vectors of risk values of parent nodes based on the weights, and sequencing the contribution sizes of the risk factors corresponding to each child node to the risk values of the parent nodes through expert scoring, wherein the specific determination method comprises the following steps:

(1) Forming a judgment matrix by expert scoring;

(2) Calculating the maximum eigenvalue and eigenvector of the judgment matrix, and normalizing the eigenvector;

(3) Carrying out consistency check by utilizing the maximum characteristic value and the order number of the matrix; if the test is passed, the feature vector corresponding to the normalized maximum feature value is the required weight vector; otherwise, returning to the step (1);

the judgment matrix is characterized in that experts compare the importance degree of the influence of the risk factors corresponding to the child node pairs (Ci, cj) on the risk value of the parent node pairwise, and the comparison result is quantified as aij, namely the ratio of the importance of the factor i to the importance of the factor j, wherein the value of aij is represented by numbers 1-9 and the reciprocal of the numbers, and the specific meaning is shown in table 1[ 2], p.464]. In addition, the ratio of the importance of the factor i to the importance of the factor j is required to be in a reciprocal relation, namely aji =1/aij, and the ratio of the importance forms a judgment matrix A = (aij);

although the method of determining the matrix A by pairwise comparison can reduce the interference of other factors and reflect the difference of relative importance of a pair of indexes, the maximum eigenvalue of A and the corresponding standardized eigenvector w are calculated by combining all comparison results, and the lambda test is needed to determine whether the matrix A has serious inconsistency. Determining whether to accept the judgment matrix A according to the test result;

TABLE 1 values and meanings of the ratio of importance of factor i to factor j

When the order of λ is larger than the order of the matrix a, the non-uniformity is more serious, and the corresponding normalized feature vector cannot truly reflect the relative importance of each factor. Where λ -n represents inconsistency, and the average value is used as index for checking and judging matrix consistency [2, p.463]; when λ = n, CI =0, it is completely identical; the larger the CI, the worse the complete consistency of the decision matrix. Generally, as long as CI is less than or equal to 0.1, the consistency of the judgment matrix is considered to be acceptable, otherwise, pairwise comparison judgment is carried out again;

the larger the dimension of the judgment matrix is, the worse the judgment consistency is, the requirement on the consistency of the high-dimensional judgment matrix should be relaxed, and then a correction value RI is introduced, which is shown in table 2[ 2], [ 3] p.146], and the more reasonable index for measuring the consistency of the judgment matrix is taken;

when CR is less than or equal to 0.1, judging that the consistency of the matrix is in a reasonable range, and accepting w as a weight vector; otherwise, modifying the judgment matrix. And recalculating the maximum eigenvalue and the corresponding eigenvector of the new judgment matrix, and judging until the maximum eigenvalue and the corresponding eigenvector pass the inspection. If the consistency condition is met, the components after w standardization are weights corresponding to the child nodes C1, C2, say, cn;

n =1,2 does not need consistency check, and when n =3, the maximum characteristic value lambda of A is less than or equal to 3.12, and the test can be passed; when n =4, the maximum characteristic value lambda of A is less than or equal to 4.23, and the test can be passed; when n =5, the maximum characteristic value lambda of A is less than or equal to 5.45, and the test can be passed;

the method takes human, machine and ring as child nodes, and three typical cases are used for explaining how to use the risk assessment method to assess the risk of the flight. Specifically, the risk values evaluated by the corresponding flight are evaluated respectively for the risk values of two groups of people, rings and machines of the flight:

(1) The risk vector of human, ring, machine is (9,7,5);

and

if the membership degree vector is determined for the risk value ri of the child node Ci according to the membership function type selected by the program, the risk category m and the type of the membership function [1, pp.55-62] need to be determined first. In the following, taking five types of risk (i.e. m = 5) of high, medium, and low and trapezoidal membership functions as examples, the fuzzy boundary values of the eight fuzzy functions are sequentially 1.5,2.5,4,5,6.5,7.25,8.5, and 9, and the five risk membership functions of low, medium, and high obtained from these boundary values are respectively:

the graph of the five piecewise linear functions is shown in fig. 1, now let the risk value day r1=7 of the leaf node C1, and respectively substitute the risk value into the expressions (1 a) - (1 e), so as to obtain the membership degrees of low, medium and high risks as 0,0,1/3,2/3 and 0 in sequence.

Where fuzzy membership functions are used as parametric inputs to the program, the number m of risk classes and the type of membership function need to be determined. If the membership function of the trapezoid is determined, the parameters needing to be input are fuzzy boundary value vectors. From this m piece-wise linear functions similar to (1 a) - (1 e) can be determined. In view of the specific application background of flight risk early warning, five types of risks, namely low risk, medium risk and high risk are suggested, and m =5.

The above description is only for the preferred embodiment of the present invention, but the scope of the present invention is not limited thereto, and any person skilled in the art should be considered to be within the technical scope of the present invention, and the technical solutions and the inventive concepts thereof according to the present invention should be equivalent or changed within the scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A risk assessment method based on human, aircraft and environment data quantification is characterized in that the risk assessment comprises two stages before take-off and after take-off, and each stage is respectively used for risk assessment by establishing an index system from three parts of an aircraft crew, an aircraft and an environment; the method specifically comprises the following steps:

s2, analyzing a related risk index system of the airplane;

s3, analyzing an environment-related risk index system;

and S4, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of flight risk weight.

2. The risk assessment method based on human, machine and environmental data quantification as claimed in claim 1, wherein in the crew member of step S1, the relative index items of the captain/copilot are as follows:

(1) The flight time of the machine type: and (3) grading rules: the pilot is divided into classes of trainees, observers F0-F3, a copilot F2, a captain M, a special class J and a class instructor A1, and the classes are divided according to the classification rule: a1: 6 minutes in 0-50 hours and 5 minutes in 50-100 hours, and the time is reduced by one minute every 50 hours; j: 0-100 hours and 6 minutes, and one minute is reduced when every 100 hours is increased; m: 0-100 hours and 6 minutes, and one minute is reduced when every 100 hours is increased; f3: 0-100 hours and 6 minutes, and one minute is reduced when every 100 hours is increased; f2: 0-100 hours and 6 minutes, and one minute is reduced when every 100 hours is increased; the time range is calculated from the driving of the local machine type;

(2) The machine type starting and falling times scoring rule is as follows: a1: 0-5, 4 minutes, and one minute is reduced when 5 pieces are added; j: 0-10, 5 minutes, and one minute is reduced when 5 pieces are added; m: 0-15, 6 minutes, and one minute is reduced when 5 rise and fall are added; the time range is calculated from the day of evaluating the technical grade;

(3) Last flight scoring rules: machine length: 8 minutes in 90 days, one minute in every 10 days, normal in 20 days, copilot: 8 minutes in 90 days, reducing one minute every 10 days, and being normal in 20 days, only receiving flight experience data, no matter whether the aircraft is in a seat or not, and not calculating a simulator; evaluating the flight days of the pilot item captain from the last time to the present day and the flight days of the pilot drive from the last time to the present day;

(4) Recent landing gear experience scoring rules: machine length: the machine type does not contain a simulator, and the rise and fall of 0-3 operation within 30 days are 6 minutes, and the 1 minute is reduced when 1 is added; and (3) copilot driving: the machine type (without a simulator) is operated for 0 to 5 rise and fall within 30 days for 6 minutes, and the rise and fall are reduced by 1 minute when 2 are increased; time range: 1 rise and fall is calculated in one flight segment; evaluation index item captain: landing times within 30 days, copilot: the number of landing times in 30 days;

(5) The work experience scoring rule is as follows: the air passenger system is converted into the boeing system for 6 minutes within 1 month after the machine type difference modification, and the system returns to zero after 12 months; 4, converting the wave sound into the airbus, and evaluating the modification type of the index item, converting the airbus into the wave sound and converting the wave sound into the airbus for a long time;

(7) The air route experience scoring rule is as follows: flying the flight line for the first time for 8 minutes, and subtracting 2 minutes from each flying time; flying can be carried out without considering whether the passenger sits on the airplane or not, and the passenger plane does not calculate and the landing does not calculate; counting data of the last year according to the urban pair judgment; evaluation index items: flight line experience;

(8) Comprehensive ability evaluation scoring rule: the personnel above the chief deputy of each team score and respectively input the pilot job number and the risk additional score; the additional score is directly used as an evaluation risk value; evaluation index items: evaluating the score;

(9) The rest period scoring rules between duty periods are as follows: if the duty period is the same day, the task book is not received back, and the actual ending date of the previous flight cannot be obtained; manual time: 9 minutes after 9 hours; reducing the weight by 1 minute when adding 1 hour; the duty cycle calculation rules are as follows: subtracting the starting time of the duty period from the ending time of the duty period by subtracting the rest period generated by overlong station-passing time, wherein the starting time of the duty period is the preparation time before flight of the first section of task, and if the flight is delayed, and the preparation time before delayed flight is greater than the originally planned takeoff time, taking the preparation time before delayed flight as the duty starting time); the end time of the duty period is the last task departure time of the complete task period; when the difference in the multi-flight sections is more than 4 hours, the interval time of the flight sections needs to be subtracted from the duty time;

in the case of riding the aircraft, the attendance period is counted from 1 hour before the takeoff until the attendance period is counted before the takeoff of the next flight segment, and the attendance period counting rule is also followed when the station-passing time exceeds 4 hours. The passengers returning to the base after the task is finished do not count the duty period and the rest period. The rest period is calculated from the period of no duty;

(11) Check-in time scoring rules: check-in 7 points before 22 o 'clock to 5 o' clock of the previous day; 5 points to 6 points, sign in for 6 points; 6-7 points check in for 5 minutes, and after 7 points check in for 2 minutes after 22 points; calculating check-in time by reversely pushing for 2 hours and 10 minutes in international take-off time and reversely pushing for 1 hour and 50 minutes in domestic take-off time; evaluation index items: a check-in time;

(12) Plan on duty time scoring rules:

(13) Whether the duty period crosses the zero point scoring rule: if the route is single-section route more than 7 hours, the zero crossing point is 7 minutes; a single section of the air route with the time less than 7 hours, if the zero crossing point is 3 minutes; taking the actual landing time of the flight as the standard; evaluating whether the index item is single-section more than 7 hours and crosses 0 point;

(16) The air route duration scoring rule is as follows: 8 hours and 5 minutes, and 1.5 minutes is added every two hours; evaluation index items: flight hours of the flight route;

(17) Lane time difference scoring rules: 4 hours and 3 minutes, and adding 1 minute every two hours; the time difference is the time difference between a take-off airport and a landing airport; evaluation index items: landing airport time differences;

(18) Rule for continuous rest time scoring within 7 days: 36 hours is standard and adjusted by regulations. And 5 minutes. One-minute reduction every 2 hours of increase; evaluating the rest time of the index item for 7 days;

(22) Overnight scoring rules over 7 days: continuously standing overnight for 3 days or more: 5 minutes, 3 minutes in 1-3 days; regarding the next time within 72 hours from the planned take-off time of the outstation as an overnight day, and regarding the time exceeding 72 hours as a stationary group; evaluation index day overnight within 7 days;

(23) The duty-on frequency scoring rule of the special airport within 7 days: 9 minutes, 3 times, 7 minutes, 2 times, 5 minutes and 1 time, 3 minutes, wherein the rise and fall are calculated once and the seat is calculated; the special airports refer to all airports listed in the operation specification C0003; evaluation index items: the duty frequency of a special airport within 7 days;

(26) Within 30 days, theoretically training the scoring rules: 1 minute after 16 hours, and 1 minute after every 8 hours; training includes emergency and hazardous article training; evaluation index items: the theoretical training time is long;

(28) Overnight/stay number scoring rules over 30 days:

evaluation index items: standing overnight and standing for 30 days;

(29) The duty-on frequency scoring rule of the special airport in 30 days: 9 minutes for more than 16 times, and 0.5 minute for one time reduction; the rising and falling are calculated once and the sitting is calculated; the special airports refer to all airports listed in the operation specification C0003; evaluation index items: number of times of special airport on duty within 30 days

(30) Time of flight scoring rule over 90 days: 260-270 are 9 points; 250-260 is 7 points; 5 points from 240 to 250 and 2 points below 240; evaluation index items: flying hour within 90 days

(32) The flight qualification grading rule is as follows: aiming at the retraining of dangerous goods, emergency training, annual captain airline inspection, ICAO grade, analog machine retraining and II qualification. Based on the qualification due date, the due date is 9 points, and the rate is reduced by 1 point every 5 days; evaluation index items: remaining effective days of qualification distance flight date

(33) English level scoring rule ICAO5:2 min; ICAO4:3 min; ICAO3:5 min;

evaluating an index term ICAO grade;

(35) And (3) a flight state scoring rule: the risk value =10 points-flight status score value, scoring is performed based on nearly 100 flights, and if the score exceeds 8 points threshold, whether entering into a report is pending; the higher the flight state score is, the better the flight wind is, and the lower the risk value is; mutual rating scoring rules: 1-10 min, preferably 10 min; 0 represents no evaluation, 0 item is removed, and the average score is taken by scoring items; the scoring items comprise: discipline: preparing the flight in place, implementing a flight program and an inspection list, and implementing company policies and behavior specifications; capability: theoretical knowledge capabilities, equipment use capabilities, flight skills (basic driving skills), teaching/learning capabilities, communication capabilities; evaluation index items: a flight status score;

(36) Career cycle scoring rules: considering the examination condition of each promotion of a pilot and the age of the promotion, the initial modification comprises the following steps: the copilot is inspected, and 2 times of examination pass through 3 points, and 3 times of examination pass through 8 points; the length of the elevator is as follows: the length of the investigation machine is 3 points after 2 times of examination and 8 points after 3 times of examination;

the long age of the lift: the chief study is the age of 33 years or older, which is increased by 1-10.

3. The risk assessment method based on human, machine and environmental data quantification as claimed in claim 1, wherein in step S1, the rules of the unit experience related index term are as follows:

(2) Safety record scoring rules: the accident sign risk period is 60 months: 9; severe error risk period 24 months: 7; general error risk 12 months: 3, reducing the risk level of the operator by one gear year by year from the generation of various level events until zero clearing; evaluation index items: the type of the accident;

(3) Character orientation scoring rules: character activity and character activation progress; inward + Inward: 7 min; outward + outward: 6 minutes; impulse + impulse: 8 min; retardation + retardation: 7 min;

evaluation index items: matching the character;

(4) The unit scoring rule is as follows: the units belong to different companies, and the flight of the company is not executed: 3 min; remote operation: remote group-holding flight for more than 72 hours, and 3 minutes of monitoring is lacked; evaluation index items: whether the personnel is the same as the company, whether the company has flights, and whether the personnel is in a different place;

(5) Whether there is a foreign nationality scoring rule: the foreign nationality is 6 minutes, the captain of the crew or the copilot has one female flight for 4 minutes, and the risk values are accumulated when the crew has a plurality of female flights; evaluation index items: whether a foreign nationality and whether a woman flies;

4. The risk assessment method according to claim 1 or 2, wherein in step S2, the aircraft-related risk indicators comprise:

(1) The aircraft operation reliability scoring rule is as follows: acquiring reliability data of airplane operation according to the airplane number, wherein the failure rate of hundreds of flight hours is based on the alarm value of the failure rate; below a warning value: 1; higher than the alarm value by 30 percent: 2; 30% -50% higher than the alarm value: 3; 4, higher than the alarm value by more than 50 percent; 5, more than 100% higher than the alarm value;

(3) First voyage scoring rule after major repair/exchange: first shift after major repair and exchange of hair: 9;

when the conditions occur simultaneously, calculating according to the high value of the risk value; evaluation index items: whether to overhaul and change the first shift; whether to change the first shift; whether to overhaul the first class; and the flight hours after the overhaul is out of the field;

(4) Repetitive failure information scoring rules:

the key system is as follows:

three states: newly increased, occurred within one week, and not occurred within one week; new or within a week, and is a critical system failure: 3; new or within a week, but not critical system failures: 1; does not occur within a week and is a critical system failure: 2; failure within a week, not a critical system failure: 0; the rule is a risk value of a single repeated fault, and the upper limit is 9 points according to quantity accumulation; evaluation index items: whether newly increased or occurred within one week, the number of critical system faults and the number of non-critical system faults;

(5) Operating limits and O-term operation scoring rules:

the key system is as follows:

operating limits or O terms of critical systems: 2 min; operational restrictions of other systems except chapter 25: 1 minute; o items of other systems except for chapter 25: 1 minute; cumulative according to the quantity, and 5 minutes as the upper limit; evaluation index items: the number of operation limit/O key systems; the number of non-critical systems of operation restriction/O items;

(6) DD reserve number and classification scoring rules:

MEL key system definition:

the first step is as follows: calculating a risk value according to the DD reservation quantity, the DD reservation of the key system: 2 min; DD reservation for other systems except chapter 25: 1 minute; cumulative by number, upper limit of 6 points;

the second step: according to the DD information, a risk value corresponding to a chapter number in MEL structured data is searched, and high values are taken when a plurality of data are obtained;

5. The risk assessment method based on human, machine, environmental data quantification according to claim 1 or 2, characterized in that: in step S3, the airport, the airline and the flight plan deviation are analyzed, and the airport-related index items are as follows:

(1) Run-time limit/noise reduction/build scoring rules:

consider announcements, time limited information in AIP airport closure, night limits, runway closure, no reception of landings, including departure airports, destination airports and associated landings; the usage rule of the flight participation calculation time is as follows: preferably, ETD and ETA are used, and if there is no predicted time, STD and STA are used.

Taking-off airport: comparing the STD or ETD of the flight with the notice and AIP limit time, if the STD or ETD of the flight is coincident with the notice and the AIP limit time, directly puncturing, and setting the risk value to be 10 points; STD or ETD is limited within 1 hour (inclusive) of the running time, and the H class is 9; STD or ETD is limited to 1 hour to 2 hours (inclusive) from the running time, and M is 7 points; STD or ETD limited in distance run time from 2 hours to 5 hours inclusive, class L3; the above rule announcement and AIP runtime restriction only consider occurring after the departure time STD or ETD;

destination airport: comparing STA or ETA of the flight with the notice and AIP night ban, and directly breaking down if the STA or ETA of the flight is superposed with the notice and the AIP night ban, wherein the risk value is 10; class H9 within 1 hour of STA or ETA distance operation time limit; the STA or ETA distance operation time is limited to 1 hour to 2 hours, and M is classified into 7; the STA or ETA distance operation time is limited to 2-5 hours, and the class L is divided into 3 points;

when the expected arrival time of the target landing site is compared with the notice and AIP night-fall, if the predicted arrival time of the target landing site is superposed, the target landing site is directly punctured, and the risk value is 10; the estimated arrival time of the landing site is 9H within 1 hour of the running time limit; the estimated time and distance to the standby landing site is limited to 7M classes from 1 hour to 2 hours; the time and the distance to the standby landing field are estimated to be limited to 2-5 hours by L class 3;

the method comprises the following steps of (1) preparing a landing field for a navigation: in the concerned time period of the route standby landing place, the flight landing time of the last route standby landing place needs to be considered, if the operation limit time of each airport is coincident with the concerned time period, the H class is divided into 9, otherwise, the H class is divided into 1;

the AIP midnight ban airport operation time limit information is obtained from operation standards and manually maintained by a user; evaluation index items: the distance airport limits the number of hours of start time.

(2) Important announcements scoring rules:

h8: low energy visibility program operation, snow announcement, fire-fighting grade change and flight descent preparation advance connection;

evaluation index items: announcement type class

(3) Visibility/range scoring rules:

Before takeoff, takeoff airport: the takeoff standard takes RVR or visibility 500 meters as reference, and when the distance is lower than 500 meters, the alarm is not broken down; and (4) landing standard: when the visual range or visibility is lower than the operation minimum standard, the alarm is not broken down, and the takeoff and landing reserve is prompted to be selected;

destination airport: landing standard: the runway visual range or visibility in the weather message is compared with the published standard, and the specific rules are as follows: the visual range or visibility of the runway is less than the minimum standard =10 min of airport operation; on the basis of the lowest standard of airport operation, the risk value is reduced by 1 when the visual distance or visibility of the runway is increased by 1-200 m; a standby landing field: visibility is less than the stand-by standard =10 points; on the basis of the standard of standby landing, every time the visibility is increased by 1-200 m, the risk value is reduced by 1

taking off and landing preparation: considering the visual range and visibility of the runway, calculating to 2 hours after takeoff, and when the visual range and visibility of the runway are lower than the operating minimum standard, giving an alarm without breakdown; destination airport: before taking off; a standby landing field: visibility is less than operating minimum =10; on the basis of the minimum operating standard, the risk value is reduced by 1 when the visibility is increased by 1-200 m; selection logic of airport multi-criteria: 1. judging the runway number according to the wind direction and the wind speed, if the downwind of the runway exceeds 5M/S, not using the runway for operation; searching for notice limits according to the runway number, if the airport runway ILS does not work in the expected using period, not using the runway ILS program; if the downwind does not reach 5M/S and no notice limit exists (ILS does not work), randomly selecting the lowest standard in the runway program; after releasing, the evaluation of the standby landing place is combined with the planning standby landing time of the computer; the risk value operation only refers to the I-type operation standard, and provides a II-type standard and prompt when the risk value operation is lower than the I-type operation standard; the alarm is not broken down; when no flight plan exists, the standby landing field does not participate in calculation, but the standby landing environment needs to be evaluated; the assessment of the readiness environment should be passed from flight to flight landing. The selectable landing fields of the current flight are obtained from the SOC DM landing list, then the risk values of all the selectable landing fields are calculated and sequenced, but the calculation of the whole flight is not participated, and a landing environment checking function is added behind each flight on the operation evaluation picture; calculating the flight reserve landing risk value based on the reserve landing station selected in the computer flight plan; when a plurality of descent fields are selected, the final value is the high value of the risk value, but the score of each descent field needs to be reflected in the evaluation report; evaluation index items: airport visual range/visibility super-standard value

(4) Cloud height scoring rules: the cloud height needs to be combined with the live condition and forecast in the weather message, the cloud height in the weather message of the predicted use time is captured, and only BKN/OVC/VV is considered in the cloud height; when FEW/SCT is lower than DH/MDH published by an airport, only alarming is carried out, and breakdown is not carried out, and the specific rule is as follows: calculating the difference value between the expected use time and the current time: using the latest live message within 2 hours (inclusive); using the latest forecast message for more than 2 hours;

before takeoff, takeoff airport: takeoff criteria do not take cloud height into account, landing criteria: when the cloud height is lower than the minimum standard DH/MDH for landing operation, the alarm is not broken down, and a take-off and landing reserve is prompted to be selected; destination airport: cloud height below the operating minimum standard DH/MDH =10; on the basis of the lowest operating standard of the airport, the risk value is reduced by 1 when the cloud height is increased by 30 meters; a standby landing field:

after takeoff, takeoff airport: considering only the landing criteria, take-off airport: calculating the cloud height to 1 hour after takeoff, and when the cloud height is lower than the operation minimum standard, giving an alarm without breakdown; taking off and landing preparation: calculating the cloud height to 2 hours after the takeoff, and when the cloud height is lower than the operation minimum standard, giving an alarm without breakdown;

a preparation landing field: cloud height less than operational minimum =10; on the basis of the lowest operating standard, the risk value is reduced by 1 for each 30 meters (100 feet) increase of the cloud height; evaluation index items: cloud height superscale value;

B. if keywords RA, DZ, SN, SG, GR, GS, IC and PL appear in the latest weather live or forecast message, identifying the weather runway as a wet runway;

D. considering the uncertain wind condition, the wind direction can be described as 180V230, the range of 180 degrees to 230 degrees is represented, the 180 degrees to 230 degrees are used for matching with the runway, and the highest value of the risk value is selected; in addition, the wind direction mark has a VRB mark, which indicates the wind chaos, and the wind direction is calculated according to the positive side wind;

(6) Gust scoring rules: gust standards use message time reference visual range/visibility and cloud height rules; the gust standard does not consider the wind direction, only alarms when the gust standard is higher than the machine type limit, and does not puncture; evaluation index items: gust wind class;

(7) Downwind scoring rules: wind message time reference visual range/visibility and cloud height rules; the interface is reserved in the downwind direction, and the downwind direction only considers the Wulanbaroto airport at present, and the special approved airplane B737-800: when B5422/B5423/B5425/B5497/B5500/B5570 operates, when the downwind value of an R32 take-off/R14 landing runway exceeds 7.7M/S, the runway is directly broken down for 10 minutes, and when the downwind value is 6-7.7M/S, H8; when the downwind value of the R32 takeoff/R14 landing runway of other airplanes exceeds 5M/S, the breakdown is directly carried out for 10 minutes, and when the downwind value is 4-5M/S, H8 is carried out; evaluation index items: downwind grade;

(8) Weather phenomenon scoring rules: the weather phenomenon uses the message time reference visual range/visibility and cloud height rules; h is 9 min/M: 5/L:3; considering the airport operation time period, the weather phenomenon in the weather message is taken as the main reason; weather phenomenon exists + rain, and direct breakdown is performed, H10; the weather phenomenon plus rain of a time period of 1 hour plus the estimated takeoff time is considered in the takeoff airport, and the weather phenomenon plus rain of the estimated arrival time is considered in other airports;

qualifiers: intensity or proximity to airport extent: "-" slight, small; medium strength "+" strong, large; VC is nearby;

the descriptor: low/DR of shallow/BC flake/PR fraction;

blown/BL high blown/SH paroxysmal/TS thunderstorm/FZ frozen;

weather phenomenon: 1. precipitation: DZ wool rain/RA rain/SN snow/SG rice snow/IC ice crystals/PL ice particles/GR hail/GS hail andor aragonite; 2. visual range disorders: BR light fog/FG fog/FU smoke/VA volcanic ash/DU floating dust/SA sand/HZ haze; 3. and (3) the other: PO dust, sand whirlwind, dust cyclone/SQ squall/FC funnel cloud, land tornado, water tornado/SS sandstorm/DS storm/WS wind shear;

class H weather phenomena:

1. PO, FC, VA, SQ, GR, WS, IC to any degree;

3. TS and any degree of weather phenomenon with TS;

the M types of weather phenomena:

1. minor degrees SS, DS, GS, SN, RA, SG, PL;

class L weather phenomena: DZ, BR; evaluation index items: a weather phenomenon grade.

The relevant index items of the flight line are as follows:

(1) Weather restriction scoring rules:

volcanic ash:

after packaging is finished, when a flight lands, the flight plan is compared with an affected area of the actual volcanic ash message, and if the flight is affected, scoring is carried out according to the height: l5 below FL 200; FL200-250M8; h10 over FL 250;

typhoon:

the air route part: before release, providing an affected air route through an information electronic chart, wherein if the affected time is coincident with the flight operation time period, H10; after packaging is finished, the flight falls to the ground, and the flight plan of the computer is compared with the affected area of the actual typhoon message, if the flight is affected, H10;

bumpy ice-accretion areas: and (4) scoring according to the height and degree of bumping and ice accumulation by using the WNI data as a basis, wherein the time validity of the bumping and ice accumulation data is 24 hours.

Bump impact classification (distinguished by Extended grades):

mild: 1,5,9, 15, 16, 17;

medium: 2,6, 10;

severe: 3, 11, 21, 22, 23;

extremely severe: 12 13, 14;

classifying the ice accretion influence degree:

mild: 1,2,3;

medium: 4,5,6;

severe: 7,8,9;

severe H8; medium M5; mild L2;

(2) Announcement restriction scoring rules:

the method mainly scores the restricted navigation limit and is divided into the situations of a DM-free flight plan and a DM-contained flight plan:

case of no DM flight plan:

case with DM flight plan: the planned flight height is within the range of the forbidden flight height, the time is coincident, the breakdown is carried out, and the class H is 10; the planned flight height is not influenced, but the planned flight height is limited in height influence and time coincidence after being expanded up and down by 2 height layers, and the H type is 8; the flight height is planned to be expanded up and down by 2 height layers and then limited by height influence, the time margin is 0-1 hour, and the H class is divided into 8; the influence of limited height after 2 height layers are expanded up and down on the planned flight height, and the time margin is within 1-2 hours, and M classes are divided into 5 classes; the influence of limited height after 2 height layers are expanded up and down on the planned flight height, and the time margin is in L class 3 within 2-5 hours; evaluation index items: advertising a restriction level;

(3) Self-defining the scoring rule of the limiting area: and manually maintaining the air route, setting the air route as HML, and converting the background into a score. Deleting the original function of the user-defined restricted area; evaluation index items: custom rating

evaluation index items: airline operating score

The flight plan deviation related index items are as follows:

(1) Yaw scoring rules: directly breaking through H type 10 points in 100 nautical miles and above in a yawing way; yawing for 50-100 nautical miles, taking ten nautical miles as a unit, and sequentially upwards adding the risk value 5 by +1; for example, 67 nautical miles off, a risk value of 6; a risk value of 1 below 50 nautical miles; after 30 minutes of takeoff, and before 30 minutes of landing as the starting and ending time of yaw calculation;

evaluation index items: a number of nautical miles;

6. The risk assessment method based on human, machine and environmental data quantification as claimed in claim 1, wherein in the step S4, weights are obtained according to expert scoring for the given risk index systems of the two stages before and after takeoff. According to the evaluation index items of all indexes of the index system, a judgment rule is made by a fuzzy comprehensive judgment method based on flight risk weight, and the risk value of the parent node is obtained by the weight of the child node at the same level and a risk item quantity fuzzy judgment matrix.

7. The risk assessment method based on human, machine and environmental data quantification as claimed in claim 6, wherein the step S4 is specifically: the method comprises two parts of weight and fuzzy evaluation; setting child nodes C1, C2, right and Cn, sequencing contribution sizes of risk values of parent nodes for risk factors represented by each child node, namely determining weights W1, W2, right and Wn, calculating membership degree vectors of risk values of parent nodes based on the weights, and sequencing the contribution sizes of the risk factors corresponding to each child node to the risk values of the parent nodes through expert scoring, wherein the specific determination method comprises the following steps:

(1) Forming a judgment matrix by expert scoring;

(3) Carrying out consistency check by utilizing the maximum characteristic value and the order number of the matrix; if the normalized maximum characteristic value passes the test, the characteristic vector corresponding to the normalized maximum characteristic value is the required weight vector; otherwise, returning to the step (1);

the judgment matrix is characterized in that experts compare the importance degree of the influence of the risk factors corresponding to the child node pairs (Ci, cj) on the risk value of the parent node pairwise, and quantify the comparison result as aij, namely the ratio of the importance of the factor i to the importance of the factor j, wherein the value of aij is represented by numbers 1-9 and the reciprocal of the numbers, and the specific meaning is shown in a table 1[ 2], p.464]. In addition, the ratio of the importance of the factor i to the importance of the factor j is required to be in an inverse relation, namely aji =1/aij, and the judgment matrix A = (aij) is formed by the ratio of the importance values;

when the order of λ is larger than the order of the matrix a, the non-uniformity is more serious, and the corresponding normalized feature vector cannot truly reflect the relative importance of each factor. Where λ -n represents inconsistency, and the average value is used as index for checking and judging matrix consistency [2, p.463]; when λ = n, CI =0, it is completely consistent; the larger the CI, the worse the complete consistency of the decision matrix. Generally, as long as CI is less than or equal to 0.1, the consistency of the judgment matrix is considered to be acceptable, otherwise, pairwise comparison judgment is carried out again;

the larger the dimension of the judgment matrix is, the worse the judgment consistency is, the requirement on the consistency of the high-dimensional judgment matrix should be relaxed, and then a correction value RI is introduced, which is shown in Table 2[ 3], p.146] and is taken as a more reasonable index for measuring the consistency of the judgment matrix;

when CR is less than or equal to 0.1, judging that the consistency of the matrix is in a reasonable range, and accepting w as a weight vector; otherwise, modifying the judgment matrix. And recalculating the maximum eigenvalue and the corresponding eigenvector of the new judgment matrix, and judging until the maximum eigenvalue and the corresponding eigenvector pass the inspection. If the consistency condition is met, the components after w standardization are weights corresponding to the child nodes C1, C2, the. n =1,2 does not need consistency check, and when n =3, the maximum characteristic value lambda of A is less than or equal to 3.12, and the test can be passed; when n =4, the maximum characteristic value lambda of A is less than or equal to 4.23, and the test can be passed; when n =5, the maximum characteristic value λ of A is less than or equal to 5.45, and the test can be passed.