CN115496248A - Numerical mode ground 2-meter air temperature forecast terrain height correction method based on temperature gradient - Google Patents
Numerical mode ground 2-meter air temperature forecast terrain height correction method based on temperature gradient Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention belongs to the technical field of weather forecast product processing, and relates to a method for correcting a terrain height forecast at a ground temperature of 2 meters based on a numerical mode of a temperature gradient. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring a numerical mode forecast product and real terrain elevation DEM data, correcting the terrain height of the ground 2-meter air temperature forecast product, establishing a business system, repeating the steps day by day, correcting the numerical mode ground 2-meter air temperature forecast terrain within a forecast area range, and acquiring a more accurate ground 2-meter air temperature forecast product. The comparison between the terrain correction of the Mount Taishan mountain station ECMWF mode forecast product on the ground 2m air temperature forecast every 3 hours in the national weather observation station of Mount Taishan province in 2019 and between the terrain correction and the correction of the ground 2m air temperature forecast product on the ground indicates that the method solves the problem of large deviation of the mode ground 2m air temperature forecast caused by inconsistency of the mode terrain and the real terrain.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of weather forecast product processing, and relates to a method for correcting a terrain height forecast at a ground temperature of 2 meters based on a numerical mode of a temperature gradient.
Background
Currently, with the continuous improvement of numerical weather forecasting systems and the rapid development of data assimilation technologies, the accuracy of numerical weather forecasting is continuously improved, and the numerical weather forecasting capability becomes an important foundation and technical support for weather forecasting. However, the numerical mode is limited by conditions such as horizontal resolution, parameterization scheme and initial field, and certain systematic errors inevitably exist in mode prediction. The development of an objective release correction technology of the numerical mode is one of effective means for eliminating systematic errors of numerical mode prediction and improving the numerical mode prediction level. In a terrain complex area, the difference between the terrain height resolved by a numerical mode and the actual terrain height is a main reason of causing the forecast deviation of the air temperature of 2 meters on the ground of the mode, and in practical service application, an ideal forecast product can be obtained by frequently carrying out terrain correction. For example, the horizontal resolution of the mode terrain of the european mid-range weather forecast center (ECMWF) fine mesh mode is 0.125 ° × 0.125 °, but the mode terrain differs greatly from the real terrain. The traditional terrain correction method is to correct the terrain according to the vertical temperature decreasing rate, wherein the temperature is reduced by 0.65 ℃ every 100 meters of the terrain, and the vertical temperature decreasing rate is an empirical constant. However, when ground temperature inversion, an air-firing effect and the like occur, the vertical temperature decrease rate is no longer constant, and even negative effects occur when the terrain correction method adopting the traditional statistics is adopted for correction. Therefore, in order to obtain a more accurate ground 2-meter air temperature forecast, an effective ground 2-meter air temperature terrain correction method is urgently needed, and a ground 2-meter air temperature forecast product with higher horizontal resolution and more fineness can be reasonably generated on the basis of a lower horizontal resolution numerical forecast product, so that support is provided for a refined forecast service.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a novel method for correcting the terrain height of the 2-meter air temperature forecast on the ground based on a numerical mode of a temperature gradient, aiming at the problems that the forecast deviation is larger in the area with larger terrain difference of the 2-meter air temperature forecast on the ground and the correction by adopting the traditional vertical temperature decrement rate is not in accordance with the real weather characteristics.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
(1) Obtaining numerical mode forecast product and real terrain elevation DEM data
Acquiring (including acquiring data from a meteorological CIMISS database, a big data cloud platform, a meteorological numerical forecast cloud sharing platform, the Internet and the like) data of the model terrain height, the ground air pressure, the ground 2m air temperature, the model layer air pressure, the model layer air temperature, the model layer height and the real terrain elevation DEM within a research area range, and processing the data to the same site or grid point through interpolation;
(2) Correcting the terrain height of a product by forecasting the air temperature of 2m on the ground
(1) Using the formula of the temperature
Calculating the ground 2m bit temperature theta o And the temperature theta of the mode layer with the difference of 100hPa and 200hPa between the ground pressure and the ground pressure 1 、θ 2 (ii) a (2) By using
Calculation of the temperature gradient h r Interpolated temperature of
And ground 2m interpolation temperature
(3) Calculating the ground 2m bit temperature theta o And the interpolated temperature theta o Increment and correct it to true terrain height
(4) Finally, the position temperature theta after the terrain correction is obtained through calculation r ＝θ r ' -delta theta, and obtaining the 2m air temperature forecast after the terrain correction by using a temperature formula.
Wherein h is o To correct the terrain height, theta o 、θ o′ Is a height h o Treatment temperature and interpolation temperature, h r To correct the terrain height, theta r 、θ r′ Is a height h r Treatment temperature and interpolated temperature, h 1 、h 2 Height of the mode layer with air pressure difference of 100hPa and 200hPa from the ground, h 1 、h 2 Respectively is theta 1 、θ 2 ，
Is a temperature gradient.
(5) Correcting the terrain of the mode ground 2m air temperature forecast point by point to achieve the purpose of correcting the terrain of the whole area range mode ground 2m air temperature forecast product;
(3) And (3) establishing a business system, repeating the step (2) day by day, realizing correction of the numerical mode ground 2m air temperature forecast terrain in the forecast area range, and obtaining a more accurate ground 2m air temperature forecast product.
The terrain height correction means that the mode forecast 2m air temperature is corrected to the real terrain height by utilizing the temperature gradient, and more accurate ground 2m air temperature forecast is obtained.
Preferably, the real terrain elevation DEM data of the step (1) generally refers to the real altitude of a meteorological site or a grid or other high-precision terrain data. For example: SRTM elevation data jointly measured by the United states space administration (NASA) and the national mapping agency (NIMA) of the department of defense, and the horizontal resolution of the SRTM elevation data comprises various products (such as 90 meters, 30 meters and the like)https://srtm.csi.cgiar.org)。
Preferably, the interpolation technique in step (1) may adopt an interpolation method such as bilinear interpolation or inverse distance weighting.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the advantages and positive effects that:
the invention corrects the ground 2m air temperature forecast in a numerical mode based on a position temperature gradient terrain correction method, and eliminates the negative effect of temperature correction caused by inverse temperature. Meanwhile, the dynamic temperature gradient can better reflect the fine evolution characteristics of the temperature along with the weather system, and a more reasonable ground 2m temperature numerical forecasting product is generated. The comparison of the terrain correction of the Mount Taishan mountain station ECMWF mode forecast product of the Mount Taishan province national weather observation station in 1-12 months in 2019 every 3 hours shows that the terrain correction product of the temperature forecast product of 2m on the ground generated by the terrain correction method has a good correction effect, and the problem of large deviation of the temperature forecast of 2m on the ground in the mode caused by inconsistency of the terrain in the mode and the real terrain is solved.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a comparison of prediction accuracy rates of a 3-hour ground 2-meter air temperature prediction product (denoted by EC) predicted in an ECMWF mode of a national weather observation station taishan mountain station in 2019 and a 3-hour ground 2-meter air temperature prediction product (denoted by EC _ PD) predicted after terrain correction.
Wherein, the abscissa is the forecast time (h), and the ordinate is the forecast accuracy (%).
Detailed Description
In order that the above objects, features and advantages of the present invention may be more clearly understood, the present invention will be further described with reference to specific embodiments. It should be noted that the embodiments and features of the embodiments of the present application may be combined with each other without conflict.
In the following description, numerous specific details are set forth in order to provide a thorough understanding of the present invention, however, the present invention may be practiced otherwise than as specifically described herein and, therefore, the present invention is not limited to the specific embodiments disclosed in the following description.
Example 1
The embodiment provides a concrete application case of a terrain height correction method based on a numerical mode of a temperature gradient, wherein the temperature of the ground is 2 meters. In this embodiment, based on a 3-hour ground 2-meter air temperature forecast product forecasted in the ECMWF mode of the taishan mountain station of the national-level weather observation station in 2019 and 1-12 months, a terrain correction is performed on the ECMWF fine grid forecast product by combining terrain elevation DEM data with a resolution of 90 meters, and a ground 2-meter air temperature forecast product at a time interval of 3 hours after the correction is generated.
The method comprises the following specific steps:
(1) Taking Linux Shell and Python as main programming languages, carrying out inverse distance weight interpolation processing on the ground 2m air temperature forecast product in the ECMWF fine grid mode under the Linux environment, wherein the processing relates to 123 national weather observation stations in Shandong province;
(2) Correcting the terrain of a product subjected to air temperature forecast at 2m on the ground:
(1) using the formula of the temperature
Calculating the ground 2m bit temperature theta o And the temperature theta of the mode layer with the difference of 100hPa and 200hPa between the ground pressure and the ground pressure 1 、θ 2 ；
(2) By using
Calculation of the temperature gradient h r Interpolated temperature of
And ground 2m interpolation temperature
(3) Calculating the ground 2m bit temperature theta o And interpolated temperature theta o′ And correcting to true terrain height
(4) Finally the temperature after the terrain correction is theta r ＝θ r′ And delta theta, and obtaining the 2m air temperature after the terrain correction by using a temperature formula.
(5) And (3) correcting the terrain of the mode ground 2m air temperature forecast point by point, so as to achieve the purpose of correcting the terrain of the product of the mode ground 2m air temperature forecast in the whole area range.
(3) And (3) establishing a business system, repeating the step (2) day by day, realizing the correction of the terrain with the ground temperature of 2m in a numerical mode in the forecast area range, and obtaining a more precise forecast product with the ground temperature of 2 m.
The corrected 2m air temperature forecast product obtained by the processing of the embodiment is compared with the accuracy of the original data, and the result is shown in table 1.EC represents raw data, and EC _ PD represents data after terrain correction.
The accuracy rate refers to the prediction accuracy rate within 2 ℃, the calculation mode is NA/NB multiplied by 100%, NA is the number of samples with the absolute value of the difference between the prediction and the actual situation less than or equal to 2 ℃, and NB is the total number of samples.
TABLE 1 comparison of 3-hour ground 2-meter air temperature forecast accuracy (%) scores for Mount Taishan station of 1-12 month national weather observation station in 2019
In order to more visually represent the accuracy of each product, the data in table 1 is plotted as a graph, as shown in fig. 1, and the results obtained from table 1 in conjunction with fig. 1 show that: the accuracy (EC _ PD) of the ground 2m air temperature forecast product after the terrain correction in the ECMWF mode for 3 hours is far higher than that of the ground 2m air temperature forecast product (EC) before the correction, which shows that the terrain correction method is reasonable and effective.
The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, and not intended to limit the present invention in other forms, and any person skilled in the art may apply the above modifications or changes to the equivalent embodiments with equivalent changes, without departing from the technical spirit of the present invention, and any simple modification, equivalent change and change made to the above embodiments according to the technical spirit of the present invention still belong to the protection scope of the technical spirit of the present invention.
Claims (3)
1. A method for correcting the forecast terrain height at 2m air temperature on the ground based on a numerical mode of a temperature gradient is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1: obtaining data
Obtaining model terrain height and model layer height products, ground 2m air temperature and air pressure, model layer air temperature and air pressure forecast products and real terrain elevation DEM data in a research area range, and processing the real terrain elevation DEM data to the same site or grid point through interpolation;
s2: terrain correction of ground 2m air temperature forecast product
S201: calculating the ground 2m bit temperature by using a bit temperature formula
And the phase temperature theta of the mode layer with the air pressure difference of 100hPa from the ground 1 And the temperature theta of the mode layer with the air pressure difference of 200hPa from the ground 2 The formula of the potential temperature is as follows:
s202: calculating the interpolation temperature of the height hr by using the temperature gradient calculation formula
And ground 2m interpolation temperature
，
The interpolated temperature for height hr is:
ground 2m interpolation temperature
Comprises the following steps:
wherein h is 1 Height h of a mode layer differing by 100hPa from ground pressure 2 The height of the mode layer with the air pressure difference of 200hPa from the ground is shown, hr is the terrain height after correction, and ho is the terrain height before correction;
s203: calculating the temperature at height ho
And interpolated temperature
Increment of (2)
And correcting the height of the real terrain to the height of the real terrain, wherein a calculation formula is as follows:
s204: calculating the temperature of the terrain after correction
：
Will be calculated to
Substituting the temperature formula in the step S201 to obtain the 2m air temperature after the terrain correction;
s205: correcting the mode ground 2m air temperature forecast product on the station or the grid point one by one to reach the air temperature after correcting the terrain of the mode ground 2m air temperature forecast product in the whole research area range;
s3: and (3) repeating the step S2 day by day to realize the air temperature forecast product after the ground 2m air temperature terrain is corrected in the numerical mode in the research area range.
2. The method for correcting the ground 2m air temperature forecast terrain height based on the numerical mode of the temperature gradient as claimed in claim 1, wherein the data acquisition platform in step S1 comprises at least one of a meteorological CIMISS database, a big data cloud platform, a meteorological numerical forecast cloud shared platform and the internet, and the real terrain elevation DEM data is real altitude of a meteorological station or other high-precision terrain data.
3. The method for correcting the terrain height according to the numerical mode of the temperature gradient based on the temperature forecast of 2m on the ground is characterized in that the interpolation in the step S1 is a bilinear interpolation method or an inverse distance weight interpolation method.
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Citations (6)
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| JPH0493689A (en) * | 1990-08-02 | 1992-03-26 | Casio Comput Co Ltd | Data display |
| EP1058816A1 (en) * | 1998-02-24 | 2000-12-13 | AlliedSignal Inc. | Method and apparatus for determining altitude |
| US20060247828A1 (en) * | 2004-09-17 | 2006-11-02 | Ricardo Ardila | Method for providing terrain alerts and display utilizing temperature compensated and GPS altitude data |
| JP2017133987A (en) * | 2016-01-29 | 2017-08-03 | 京セラ株式会社 | Altitude measuring method and altitude measuring device |
| CN110110482A (en) * | 2019-05-22 | 2019-08-09 | 国家气象信息中心 | Sounding significant level temperature deviation is corrected and validity check algorithm |
| CN112684520A (en) * | 2020-12-30 | 2021-04-20 | 北京墨迹风云科技股份有限公司 | Weather forecast correction method and device, computer equipment and storage medium |
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Patent Citations (6)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPH0493689A (en) * | 1990-08-02 | 1992-03-26 | Casio Comput Co Ltd | Data display |
| EP1058816A1 (en) * | 1998-02-24 | 2000-12-13 | AlliedSignal Inc. | Method and apparatus for determining altitude |
| US20060247828A1 (en) * | 2004-09-17 | 2006-11-02 | Ricardo Ardila | Method for providing terrain alerts and display utilizing temperature compensated and GPS altitude data |
| JP2017133987A (en) * | 2016-01-29 | 2017-08-03 | 京セラ株式会社 | Altitude measuring method and altitude measuring device |
| CN110110482A (en) * | 2019-05-22 | 2019-08-09 | 国家气象信息中心 | Sounding significant level temperature deviation is corrected and validity check algorithm |
| CN112684520A (en) * | 2020-12-30 | 2021-04-20 | 北京墨迹风云科技股份有限公司 | Weather forecast correction method and device, computer equipment and storage medium |
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