CN115409332A - Radiation accident emergency exercise evaluation method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a radiation accident emergency exercise evaluation method, which belongs to the technical field of radiation accident exercises and comprises the steps of proposing a radiation accident emergency exercise effect evaluation index system, constructing a radiation accident emergency exercise comprehensive evaluation model and the like, wherein according to the radiation accident emergency exercise flow, the comprehensive exercise preparation, exercise implementation and exercise summary stages, a radiation accident emergency exercise evaluation system which takes the radiation accident emergency exercise effect as a general target and is provided with 5 primary indexes and 15 secondary indexes is formed; index weight distribution is carried out through an AHP method, a fuzzy comprehensive comment set is obtained through an FCE method to calculate scores, comprehensive evaluation on the radiation accident emergency exercise is achieved, specific performance conditions of indexes at all levels are reflected visually, and the method has good application value on the radiation accident emergency exercise evaluation.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of radiation accident exercises, in particular to a radiation accident emergency exercise evaluation method.
Background
The nuclear technology is widely applied to various fields such as industry, agriculture, medical treatment, geological survey, scientific research, teaching and the like, and with the rapid development of nuclear technology utilization, radiation environment pollution accidents happen sometimes, so that serious challenges are brought to radiation environment emergency work. The improvement of the emergency capacity of the radiation environment is an all-dimensional and multi-angle task, and the radiation accident emergency exercise is an important mode for maintaining and improving the response capacity of emergency organization.
The emergency response capability of the emergency organization can be improved by the aid of the holding of the radiation accident emergency exercises, the effectiveness and operability of various radiation accident emergency plans can be checked, and the radiation accident emergency plans can be modified and perfected by the aid of exercise evaluation; meanwhile, the purpose of publicity and education and popularization of radiation protection knowledge can be achieved by the aid of the radiation accident emergency exercise.
At present, multi-level radiation accident emergency management systems are established in various places and emergency exercises are regularly developed, and in recent years, under the guidance of the department of ecological environment (national nuclear safety agency), a series of different types of radiation accident emergency exercises are developed. Through the analysis of the prior radiation accident emergency maneuver, the problem of 'light evaluation of heavy action' often exists in the maneuver is found, namely the maneuver evaluation is mainly the qualitative evaluation of the surface expression of the key link, and deeper thinking and summarization are lacked. At present, a systematic, full-flow, accurate and targeted exercise evaluation method does not exist, and therefore a radiation accident emergency exercise evaluation method is provided.
Disclosure of Invention
The technical problem to be solved by the invention is as follows: how to solve the problems that the qualitative evaluation of the surface expression of a key link is taken as the main part and deeper thinking and summarization are lacked in the conventional radiation accident emergency maneuver evaluation, and the radiation accident emergency maneuver evaluation method is provided.
The invention solves the technical problems through the following technical scheme, and comprises the following steps:
step S1: establishing an evaluation index system for emergency exercise effect of radiation accident
Analyzing each stage of the whole radiation accident emergency maneuver process, determining alternative evaluation indexes related to the radiation accident emergency maneuver effect, and screening and establishing a radiation accident emergency maneuver effect evaluation index system;
step S2: construction of comprehensive evaluation model for radiation accident emergency drill
Quantifying the evaluation indexes by utilizing an analytic hierarchy process and a comprehensive fuzzy evaluation method, and constructing a comprehensive evaluation model of the radiation accident emergency maneuver;
and step S3: evaluating the effects of emergency exercises of radiation accidents
And (4) grading the effect of the single radiation accident emergency maneuver by using the radiation accident emergency maneuver comprehensive evaluation model constructed in the step (S2).
Further, in the step S1, the method specifically includes the following steps:
step S11: screening items influencing exercise results in main work flows and links of radiation accident emergency exercises, and summarizing to obtain a plurality of alternative evaluation indexes by combining feasibility of model building;
step S12: and checking the multiple alternative evaluation indexes again by adopting an expert investigation method, combining part of the alternative evaluation indexes into one evaluation index, and merging part of the alternative evaluation indexes into the other evaluation index to obtain a radiation accident emergency maneuver evaluation index system.
Further, in the step S2, the specific process is as follows:
step S21, calculating weight based on AHP, comprising the following substeps:
step S211: adopting a pairwise mutual comparison method, combining relative scales, and scheduling the relative quality sequence of each evaluation index according to a 9-division ratio so as to construct a judgment matrix;
step S212: calculating and judging the maximum characteristic root lambda of matrix max After normalization, carrying out hierarchical single sequencing and consistency check on the feature vectors;
step S213: calculating the relative importance weights of all factors of a certain level to the highest level (total target), performing level total sequencing, and performing consistency check;
step S22, building an evaluation model based on the FCE, and comprising the following substeps:
step S221: establishing a corresponding comprehensive evaluation factor set by adopting an FCE method;
step S222: dividing the index evaluation standard into a plurality of grades;
step S223: and then calculating the membership degree of each evaluation index relative to the comment set V, establishing each level of fuzzy relation matrix, comprehensively evaluating a single evaluation index by combining the weighted values of all factors of the levels obtained by AHP, calculating a fuzzy relation evaluation vector, calculating upwards step by step, establishing an evaluation model, and further calculating a fuzzy evaluation matrix and a corresponding score.
Furthermore, in the step S2, after the evaluation index is quantized, a target structure of the radiation accident emergency maneuver effect is formed, which includes a target layer, a first-level index layer and a second-level index layer; the target layer is used as a decision target; the first-level index layer comprises early-stage preparation, exercise guarantee, emergency starting, emergency response and subsequent work evaluation indexes; the second-level index layer comprises exercise plans, exercise script quality, personnel guarantees, expenditure guarantees, equipment guarantees, site guarantees, accident reports, accident verification, command coordination, emergency communication, emergency monitoring, site disposal, accident conditions and disposal, exercise summary and plan revision evaluation indexes.
Further, in the step S211, the judgment matrix represents the comparison of the relative importance of all the factors of the current layer to one factor of the previous layer, and when one factor of the previous layer is used as the comparison criterion, the comparison scale a is used ij To show the recognition of the relative importance of the ith and jth factors in the next layer, a ij Forming a judgment matrix A, wherein the expression is as follows:
further, in the step S212, the hierarchical single ordering represents the maximum feature root λ of the judgment matrix a max And after normalization, the elements of the feature vectors are the ranking weights of the relative importance of the same-level factor to a certain factor of the previous-level factor.
Further, in the step S212, the specific process of the consistency check is as follows:
step S2121: and (3) calculating a consistency index:
wherein λ is max Representing the maximum characteristic root of the judgment matrix A, wherein n is the order of the judgment matrix A;
step S2122: searching an average randomness consistency index RI;
step S2123: calculate the consistency ratio:
further, in the step S213, the calculation of the weight of the relative importance of all the factors of a certain level to the highest level and the consistency check are performed sequentially from the highest level to the lowest level.
Further, in step S221, the highest-level evaluation factor set is the total factor set U, that is, the evaluation factor is composed of 5 primary indexes, and the factor set corresponding to the primary index is composed of 15 secondary indexes.
Further, in step S223, the degree of membership of the ith influencing element in the factor set U to the jth element in the comment set V is r ij The value range is between 0 and 1.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following advantages: according to the radiation accident emergency exercise process, comprehensive exercise preparation, exercise implementation and exercise summarization stages form a radiation accident emergency exercise evaluation system which takes the radiation accident emergency exercise effect as a general target and is provided with 5 primary indexes and 15 secondary indexes; index weight distribution is carried out through an AHP method, a fuzzy comprehensive comment set is obtained through an FCE method to calculate scores, comprehensive evaluation of the radiation accident emergency exercise is achieved, specific performance conditions of indexes at all levels are reflected visually, and the application value of the radiation accident emergency exercise evaluation is good.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a schematic diagram of an evaluation index system for emergency maneuver of radiation accident in the second embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The following examples are given for the detailed implementation and specific operation of the present invention, but the scope of the present invention is not limited to the following examples.
Example one
The embodiment provides a technical scheme: a radiation accident emergency maneuver evaluation method comprises the following steps:
step S1: establishing a radiation accident emergency exercise effect evaluation index system
Analyzing each stage of the whole radiation accident emergency exercise process, determining alternative evaluation indexes related to the radiation accident emergency exercise effect, and screening and establishing a radiation accident emergency exercise effect evaluation index system;
step S2: construction of comprehensive evaluation model for radiation accident emergency drill
Quantifying evaluation indexes by using an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and a comprehensive fuzzy evaluation method (FCE) to construct a comprehensive evaluation model of the radiation accident emergency maneuver;
and step S3: evaluating radiation accident emergency exercise effect
And (3) scoring the effect of the single radiation accident emergency maneuver by using the radiation accident emergency maneuver comprehensive evaluation model constructed in the step (S2).
In the step S1, the method specifically includes the following steps:
step S11: through screening items which have obvious influence on exercise results in main work flows and various links of the radiation accident emergency exercise, and combining feasibility of establishing a model, a plurality of alternative evaluation indexes are obtained through induction;
step S12: and checking the multiple alternative evaluation indexes again by adopting an expert investigation method, combining part of the alternative evaluation indexes into one evaluation index, and merging part of the alternative evaluation indexes into the other evaluation index to obtain a radiation accident emergency maneuver evaluation index system.
In step S12, the scenario setting and documentation indexes in the preliminary preparation phase are combined into a performance script quality index, the command coordination and disposition decision evaluation indexes in the emergency response phase are combined into a command coordination evaluation index, and the expense budget evaluation index in the preliminary preparation phase is combined into an expense guarantee evaluation index.
In step S2, the specific process is as follows:
step S21, calculating weight based on AHP, comprising the following substeps:
step S211: adopting a pairwise mutual comparison method, combining relative scales, and scheduling the relative quality sequence of each evaluation index according to a 9-position division ratio so as to construct a judgment matrix;
step S212: calculating and judging the maximum characteristic root lambda of the matrix max After normalization, carrying out hierarchical single sequencing and consistency check on the feature vectors;
step S213: calculating the relative importance weights of all factors of a certain level to the highest level (total target), performing level total sequencing, and performing consistency check;
step S22, building an evaluation model based on the FCE, and comprising the following substeps:
step S221: establishing a corresponding comprehensive evaluation factor set by adopting an FCE method;
step S222: dividing the index evaluation criterion into a plurality of grades;
step S223: then calculating the membership degree of each evaluation index relative to the comment set V, establishing fuzzy relation matrixes at all levels, and obtaining the weight value w of each factor of the hierarchy by combining AHP ij Comprehensively evaluating the single evaluation index, and calculating a fuzzy relation evaluation vector B i And calculating upwards step by step to construct an evaluation model, and further calculating a fuzzy evaluation matrix B and a corresponding score F.
In the step S2, after the evaluation indexes are quantized, a target structure with a radiation accident emergency exercise effect is formed, wherein the target structure comprises a target layer, a first-level index layer and a second-level index layer; the target layer is used as a decision target; the first-level index layer comprises early-stage preparation, exercise guarantee, emergency starting, emergency response and subsequent work evaluation indexes; the second-level index layer comprises exercise plans, exercise script quality, personnel guarantees, expenditure guarantees, equipment guarantees, site guarantees, accident reports, accident verification, command coordination, emergency communication, emergency monitoring, site disposal, accident conditions and disposal, exercise summary and plan revision evaluation indexes.
In the step S211, the judgment matrix indicates that all the factors of the current layer are specific to one of the previous layersComparison of relative importance of factors, when a factor at the above level is used as a comparison criterion, the comparison scale a is used ij To show the recognition of the relative importance of the ith factor and the jth factor in the next layer, a ij Forming a judgment matrix A, wherein the expression is as follows:
in the step S212, the hierarchical single ordering represents the maximum characteristic root lambda of the judgment matrix A max And after normalization, the elements of the feature vectors are the ranking weights of the relative importance of the same-level factor to a certain factor of the previous-level factor.
In step S212, the consistency check specifically includes the following steps:
step S2121: and (3) calculating a consistency index:
wherein λ is max Representing the maximum characteristic root of the judgment matrix A, wherein n is the order of the judgment matrix A;
step S2122: searching an average randomness consistency index RI;
step S2123: calculating a consistency ratio:
in step S213, the calculation of the weights of the relative importance of all the factors of a certain level to the highest level and the consistency check are performed sequentially from the highest level to the lowest level.
In step S221, the highest-level evaluation factor set is the total factor set U, that is, the evaluation factor is composed of 5 primary indexes, and the factor set corresponding to the primary index is composed of 15 secondary indexes.
In said step S223, a factor setThe membership degree of the ith influence element in the U to the jth element in the comment set V is r ij The value range is between 0 and 1.
Example two
In this embodiment, an AHP (hierarchical analysis) -FCE (fuzzy comprehensive evaluation) method, that is, a radiation accident emergency maneuver evaluation method is designed based on existing experience and related data, and the radiation accident emergency maneuver is evaluated, which mainly includes the following steps:
1. building an evaluation index system
By summarizing and analyzing related research contents of the past radiation accident emergency maneuver and evaluation thereof and combining the actual situation of radiation accident emergency management of each province, each stage of the whole process of the radiation accident emergency maneuver is specifically analyzed, and a radiation accident emergency maneuver effect evaluation index system is screened and established.
1.1 alternative evaluation index
On the basis of early-stage work summary and literature investigation, by screening items which obviously influence the exercise result on the main workflow of the emergency exercise of the radiation accident and in each link and combining the feasibility of establishing a model, alternative evaluation indexes are summarized.
1.2 construction of evaluation index System
In order to enable the indexes to reflect the real situation of the radiation accident emergency exercise more accurately, the alternative index system is checked again by adopting an expert investigation method. The objects to be investigated mainly comprise nuclear remote sensing center nuclear of nuclear industry aerial survey and related experts in the field of emergency research of radiation accidents, professionals of ecological environment supervision departments and workers of national nuclear emergency aerial radiation monitoring rescue teams. Combining with the expert opinions, combining 'scenario setting and documentation' with similar evaluation indexes in the early preparation stage into 'exercise script quality', combining 'expense budget' in the early preparation stage into 'expense guarantee' in the exercise guarantee, and combining 'command coordination and disposition decision' in the emergency response stage into 'command coordination'. The radiation accident emergency maneuver evaluation index system obtained by combining the above is shown in fig. 1.
2. Construction of AHP-FCE evaluation model
And quantifying the evaluation indexes by utilizing an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and a comprehensive fuzzy evaluation method (FCE), constructing a comprehensive evaluation model of the radiation accident emergency maneuver, and providing an optional criterion and reference for each level of radiation accident emergency management institutions to carry out the evaluation of the radiation accident emergency maneuver.
2.1 AHP-based weight calculation
Firstly, a method of comparing every two of the evaluation indexes is adopted, relative scale is used, and the relative quality sequence of each evaluation index is arranged according to 9 quantiles, so that a judgment matrix is constructed. Calculating and judging the maximum characteristic root lambda of matrix max After normalization, the feature vectors are subjected to level single ordering and consistency check. And finally, calculating the relative importance weights of all factors of a certain level to the highest level (total target), performing level total sequencing, and performing consistency check. The calculation results of the weight of each level of evaluation indexes of the emergency exercise of the radiation accident are shown in table 1:
TABLE 1 radiation accident emergency exercise evaluation index weight calculation results at all levels
The invention invites expert scholars in the field of nuclear industry aerial survey remote sensing center core and radiation accident emergency research to participate in the determination process of evaluating the index weight. Through interview and questionnaire survey modes, the experts are invited to carry out pairwise importance evaluation on the established evaluation index system according to the importance degree of the radiation accident emergency exercise influence factors. And calculating the weight of the evaluation index by an AHP method on the basis.
2.2 FCE-based assessment model construction
And establishing a corresponding comprehensive evaluation factor set by adopting an FCE method in combination with the radiation accident emergency maneuver evaluation index system completed in the foregoing. The highest evaluation factor set is a total factor set U, and 5 primary indexes form the evaluation factors of the highest evaluation factor set U, and 15 secondary indexes form the factor set corresponding to the primary indexes.
Through the methods of literature research and expert interview, the index evaluation standards are classified into 5 grades of excellent, good, general, qualified and unqualified, and are respectively assigned to 90, 80, 70, 60 and 50.
And then calculating the membership degree of each index relative to the comment set V, and establishing each level of fuzzy relation matrix. The membership degree of the ith influence element in the factor set U to the jth element in the comment set V is r ij The value range is 0-1. And finally, establishing a comprehensive evaluation model and determining the total score of the system. Weight value w of each factor of hierarchy obtained by combining AHP ij Comprehensively evaluating the single index, and calculating a fuzzy relation evaluation vector B i . And (4) calculating upwards step by step, constructing an evaluation model, and calculating a fuzzy evaluation matrix B and a corresponding score F.
EXAMPLE III
The effectiveness of the radiation accident emergency maneuver evaluation method in the first and second embodiments is verified through example analysis, and the method specifically includes the following steps:
3.1 introduction of radiation accident Emergency exercise situation
The practice is that a certain iron and steel plant stops production and moves, and two IV-class Cs are lost in the process of transporting the waste radioactive source to the radioactive waste warehouse 137 The radioactive source is used as background, three-level emergency plans of enterprises, regional ecological environment substations and regional governments are respectively started, and an emergency command department consisting of personnel and experts of departments of ecological environment, public security, health defense, propaganda and the like is established. After the source searching scheme is researched and judged by expert groups, the three emergency monitoring groups are used for carrying out the lost radioactive source searching work in an air-ground force coordination linkage mode. Each emergency monitoring group is equipped with a personal dosimeter, a radiation protection garment, a nuclide identifier, a dosage rate meter and a surface pollution meter; an emergency monitoring group is provided with a vehicle-mounted sodium iodide crystal source searching system and an unmanned vehicle-mounted sodium iodide crystal detector patrol system, and patrol is carried out along the road from a steel plant to a radioactive waste warehouse and within 30m of the two sides of the road; two groups of emergency monitoring equipment are equipped with vehicle-mounted MDS (multidimensional scaling) patrol system, quick 1 patrol system and unmanned airborne sodium iodide crystal detector patrol system along radioactive wastePatrolling the road along the line from the warehouse to the iron and steel plant and within 30m of the two sides of the road; three groups of emergency monitoring equipment, namely FH40G dose rate meters and surface pollution meter equipment, are used for detecting 19 intersections and passing vehicle tires along the line from a steel plant to a waste discharge warehouse. The public opinion information group formed by the personnel in the propaganda department is responsible for the public opinion response, and the medical rescue group formed by the personnel in the health department stands by on site.
Respectively finding radiation abnormality in the air-ground cooperative monitoring process, and determining the radiation abnormality as Cs by adopting a nuclide identifier 137 And when the emergency monitoring group member is abnormal, marking the position by adopting a backward source searching method. On the premise of well protecting the personnel, the on-site disposal group members adopt the long handle clamp to store the radioactive source. The surface pollution instrument monitors that the out-of-control source is not damaged and the radioactivity of the soil on the surrounding ground is the background level. The emergency monitoring group finishes the patrol and survey according to a set scheme and does not find new radiation abnormality, after the investigation and judgment of the expert group, the lost radioactive source is confirmed to be safely collected and stored, and the personal cumulative dosage value of the field monitoring and disposal personnel does not exceed 10 MuSv. The emergency response is terminated, and the evaluation group carries out summary evaluation on the exercise activities.
3.2 model calculation
And inviting the experts participating in the emergency exercise of the radiation accident to form an expert group, performing grade evaluation according to an established evaluation index system and index evaluation standards by adopting a mode of functional inquiry and back-to-back communication, counting the grade evaluation results of all indexes of the expert group, calculating the membership degree of all indexes relative to the comment set, calculating a fuzzy evaluation vector on the basis, and finally obtaining the score of each evaluation index and the comprehensive score of exercise activities.
According to the maximum membership principle, three primary indexes of exercise guarantee (B2), emergency response (B4) and follow-up work (B5) reach excellent levels, and two primary indexes of early preparation (B1) and emergency starting (B3) reach good levels; the radiation accident emergency exercise effect (A) reaches an excellent level, and the total evaluation score is 84.3262. The overall effect of the emergency exercise of the radiation accident is better, and the exercise purpose is achieved.
3.3 analysis of evaluation results
According to the weights of all levels of evaluation indexes obtained by calculation in the table 1, the comprehensive scores of all levels of evaluation indexes of the radiation accident emergency exercise can be calculated, and the result is shown in the table 2:
TABLE 2 comprehensive score of evaluation indexes at all levels of radiation accident emergency exercise
As can be seen from the above table, the scores of the 15 first-level indexes are all above 80, which indicates that the overall exercise effect is better. The score of the emergency response (B4) is the highest and is 87.8671, and the emergency response (B4) is in accordance with the actual formulation of an emergency monitoring scheme in the exercise process, the air-ground monitoring power linkage is tight, and the field disposal operation specification is consistent; the follow-up work (B5) has the lowest score of 81.25 points and is closely related to the untimely development of the emergency plan revision work. Among the 15 secondary indexes, the accident report (C7), the command coordination (C9) and the emergency monitoring (C11) have the highest scores of 89 points, 89 points and 90 points respectively, and are accurate, timely, complete, efficient and powerful in command coordination and rapid, ordered, accurate and consistent in emergency monitoring in the exercise process; the lowest scores of the expense guarantee (C4), the site guarantee (C6) and the plan revision (C15) are respectively 72 points, 71 points and 69 points, and the minimum scores are places where the radiation accident emergency exercise work needs to be noticed and improved.
The verification of the steel plant stopping production and moving radioactive source lost radiation accident emergency exercise example shows that the AHP-FCE model has good adaptability and rationality. The comprehensive score is calculated through the model, the specific performance conditions of all levels of indexes are visually reflected, and the method has good application value on the radiation accident emergency exercise evaluation
In summary, according to the radiation accident emergency maneuver evaluation method of the embodiment, the stages of maneuver preparation, maneuver implementation and maneuver summary are integrated according to the radiation accident emergency maneuver flow, so that a radiation accident emergency maneuver evaluation system with a radiation accident emergency maneuver effect as a general target and with 5 primary indexes and 15 secondary indexes arranged below is formed; index weight distribution is carried out through an AHP method, a fuzzy comprehensive comment set is obtained through an FCE method to calculate scores, comprehensive evaluation of the radiation accident emergency exercise is achieved, specific performance conditions of indexes at all levels are reflected visually, and the application value of the radiation accident emergency exercise evaluation is good.
Although embodiments of the present invention have been shown and described above, it will be understood that the above embodiments are exemplary and not to be construed as limiting the present invention, and that changes, modifications, substitutions and alterations can be made to the above embodiments by those of ordinary skill in the art within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A radiation accident emergency maneuver evaluation method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step S1: establishing a radiation accident emergency exercise effect evaluation index system
Analyzing each stage of the whole radiation accident emergency exercise process, determining alternative evaluation indexes related to the radiation accident emergency exercise effect, and screening and establishing a radiation accident emergency exercise effect evaluation index system;
step S2: construction of comprehensive evaluation model for radiation accident emergency exercise
Quantifying the evaluation indexes by utilizing an analytic hierarchy process and a comprehensive fuzzy evaluation method, and constructing a comprehensive evaluation model of the radiation accident emergency maneuver;
and step S3: evaluating radiation accident emergency exercise effect
And (4) grading the effect of the single radiation accident emergency maneuver by using the radiation accident emergency maneuver comprehensive evaluation model constructed in the step (S2).
2. The radiation accident emergency maneuver evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein: in the step S1, the method specifically includes the following steps:
step S11: screening items influencing exercise results in main work flows and various links of the radiation accident emergency exercise, and summarizing to obtain a plurality of alternative evaluation indexes by combining feasibility of establishing a model;
step S12: and (3) checking the multiple alternative evaluation indexes again by adopting an expert investigation method, combining part of the alternative evaluation indexes into one evaluation index, and combining part of the alternative evaluation indexes into the other evaluation index to obtain a radiation accident emergency maneuver evaluation index system.
3. The radiation accident emergency maneuver evaluation method according to claim 2, wherein: in the step S2, the specific process is as follows:
step S21, calculating weight based on AHP, comprising the following substeps:
step S211: adopting a pairwise mutual comparison method, combining relative scales, and scheduling the relative quality sequence of each evaluation index according to a 9-division ratio so as to construct a judgment matrix;
step S212: calculating and judging the maximum characteristic root lambda of matrix max After normalization, carrying out hierarchical single sequencing and consistency check on the feature vectors;
step S213: calculating the relative importance weights of all factors of a certain level to the highest level (total target), performing level total sorting, and performing consistency check;
step S22, building an evaluation model based on the FCE, and comprising the following substeps:
step S221: establishing a corresponding comprehensive evaluation factor set by adopting an FCE method;
step S222: dividing the index evaluation criterion into a plurality of grades;
step S223: and then calculating the membership degree of each evaluation index relative to the comment set V, establishing each level of fuzzy relation matrix, comprehensively evaluating a single evaluation index by combining the weight value of each factor of the hierarchy obtained by AHP, calculating a fuzzy relation evaluation vector, upwards calculating step by step, constructing an evaluation model, and further calculating a fuzzy evaluation matrix and a corresponding score.
4. The method for evaluating the emergency maneuver of the radiation accident according to claim 3, wherein: in the step S2, after the evaluation indexes are quantized, a target structure with a radiation accident emergency exercise effect is formed, wherein the target structure comprises a target layer, a first-level index layer and a second-level index layer; the target layer is used as a decision target; the first-level index layer comprises early-stage preparation, exercise guarantee, emergency starting, emergency response and subsequent work evaluation indexes; the second-level index layer comprises exercise plans, exercise script quality, personnel guarantees, expense guarantees, equipment guarantees, site guarantees, accident reports, accident verification, command coordination, emergency communication, emergency monitoring, site disposal, accident conditions and disposal, exercise summary and plan revision evaluation indexes.
5. The radiation accident emergency maneuver evaluation method according to claim 4, wherein: in step S211, the judgment matrix represents a comparison of relative importance of all factors of the current layer with respect to a factor of the previous layer, and when a factor of the previous layer is used as a comparison criterion, a comparison scale a is used ij To show the recognition of the relative importance of the ith factor and the jth factor in the next layer, a ij Forming a judgment matrix A, wherein the expression is as follows:
6. the method for evaluating the emergency maneuver of the radiological accident according to claim 5, wherein: in the step S212, the hierarchical single ordering represents the maximum characteristic root lambda of the judgment matrix A max And the corresponding characteristic vector, and after normalization, the elements of the characteristic vector are the ranking weight of the relative importance of the same-level factor to a certain factor of the previous-level factor.
7. The radiation accident emergency maneuver evaluation method according to claim 6, wherein: in step S212, the specific process of the consistency check is as follows:
step S2121: and (3) calculating a consistency index:
wherein λ is max Representing the maximum characteristic root of the judgment matrix A, wherein n is the order of the judgment matrix A;
step S2122: searching an average randomness consistency index RI;
step S2123: calculating a consistency ratio:
8. the radiation accident emergency maneuver evaluation method according to claim 7, wherein: in step S213, the calculation of the weight of the relative importance of all the factors of a certain level to the highest level and the consistency check are performed sequentially from the highest level to the lowest level.
9. The radiation accident emergency maneuver evaluation method according to claim 8, wherein: in step S221, the highest-level evaluation factor set is the total factor set U, that is, the evaluation factor is composed of 5 primary indexes, and the factor set corresponding to the primary index is composed of 15 secondary indexes.
10. The radiation accident emergency maneuver evaluation method according to claim 9, wherein: in the step S223, the membership degree of the ith influencing element in the factor set U to the jth element in the comment set V is r ij The value range is between 0 and 1.
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