CN114897203A - Method and system for predicting daily gas consumption and gas consumption abnormity alarm based on temperature - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method and a system for predicting daily gas consumption and gas consumption abnormity alarming based on air temperature, which comprise a user layer, a comprehensive service layer, a service supporting layer and an infrastructure layer, wherein the user layer comprises a scheduling large screen, an external enterprise user terminal, an internal administrator terminal and a GIS display system. The invention relates to a method and a system for predicting daily gas consumption and alarming for gas consumption abnormity based on temperature, which are used for determining that the gas consumption is mainly determined by temperature factors on the basis of successful prediction and analysis of gas, determining whether the gas consumption is in a heating period or not, and greatly influencing the prediction of the gas consumption.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of gas detection, in particular to a method and a system for predicting daily gas consumption and gas consumption abnormity alarm based on temperature.
Background
The actual gas consumption of the urban gas is influenced by various factors such as gas condition change, user type composition, gas source supply capacity and the like, except for special reasons, the influence of the temperature is most obvious, particularly in the northern heating period, so that the study on the rule between the temperature and the urban gas consumption has important significance for predicting the gas consumption and ensuring the economic, safe and reliable operation of a gas supply system.
At present, the daily gas consumption is predicted by using quantity detection, but the daily gas consumption in different seasons is obviously different, and a mode of predicting subsequent gas consumption by using the detected gas consumption only can generate larger errors, so that the invention provides a method and a system for predicting the daily gas consumption of gas and alarming abnormal gas consumption based on temperature.
The invention determines that the gas consumption is mainly determined by temperature factors on the basis of successful gas prediction analysis, whether the gas consumption is in a heating period or not and has larger influence on the prediction of the gas consumption, and simultaneously, the invention combines the daily gas consumption of regional gas and the temperature change condition of the corresponding period provided by a gas company to improve the prediction algorithm of the regional gas-meteorological bureau, optimizes a gas quantity prediction module based on meteorological conditions, realizes the daily prediction of the gas consumption of the whole region based on enterprise gas data, real-time weather data and weather forecast data, predicts the actual gas consumption and the manual predicted gas consumption, compares and displays the actual gas consumption and the manual predicted gas consumption, realizes the alarm of abnormal data and constant value based on the gas consumption data of the enterprise, and comprises the alarm of abnormal total gas consumption, the alarm of gas consumption of large users and the alarm of gas consumption approaching gas index quantity, and after the occurrence of a gas leakage event is determined, and (3) automatically starting a gas leakage model, and performing pipe explosion analysis to quickly obtain an intelligent emergency plan.
Disclosure of Invention
Technical problem to be solved
Aiming at the defects of the prior art, the invention provides a method and a system for predicting daily gas consumption and gas consumption abnormity alarm based on air temperature, solves the problem that a mode of predicting subsequent consumption only by detecting consumption can generate larger errors, fully utilizes the gas consumption data condition of an enterprise to analyze the running state of a gas pipe network, determines the leakage point and the leakage amount, builds a gas leakage model and a pipe explosion analysis model, and realizes intelligent early warning and disposal of gas leakage.
(II) technical scheme
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention is realized by the following technical scheme: the system for predicting the daily gas consumption and gas consumption abnormity alarm based on the temperature comprises a user layer, a comprehensive service layer, a service support layer and an infrastructure layer, wherein the user layer comprises a large scheduling screen, an external enterprise user terminal, an internal administrator terminal and a GIS display system, the comprehensive service layer comprises a gas consumption prediction module, a weather information acquisition module, a gas consumption reporting module, an enterprise information management module, a gas price management module, a gas batch management module, a gas consumption alarm module, a gas leakage handling module and a pipe explosion analysis module, the service support layer comprises a user management module, a role management module, an authority management module, a log management module, a data dictionary module, a total gas quantity data abnormity alarm module, a gas quantity approaching gas consumption index alarm module, a large user gas consumption abnormity alarm module, a gas leakage alarm module and a pipeline geographic information module, and the infrastructure layer comprises a private cloud module, a regional gas comprehensive database module, an SCADA (supervisory control and data acquisition) database module, a meteorological gas station database module and a 5G/NB-Iot meter data acquisition module.
The gas consumption reporting module comprises a gas consumption prediction module, a gas consumption acquisition module, a real-time weather data and weather forecast data acquisition module, the output end of the gas consumption acquisition module and the output end of the real-time weather data and weather forecast data acquisition module are connected with the input end of the gas consumption prediction module, the gas consumption acquisition module comprises a gate station gas supply acquisition module and a key enterprise gas consumption acquisition module, the input end of the real-time weather data and weather forecast data acquisition module is connected with the output end of the SCADA database module, and the input end of the real-time weather data and weather forecast data acquisition module is connected with the output end of the weather gas station database module.
Preferably, the private cloud module comprises a Web server, an application server and a database server, and the Web server, the application server and the database server all use Windows operating systems therebetween.
Preferably, the gas usage reporting module needs to acquire gas usage data from the gas internal SCADA database module and the weather gas station database module, and to set up real-time weather data and weather forecast data acquired by the weather base station.
Preferably, the weather gas station database module collects data to a weather bureau through a weather base station, establishes a connection interface and collects real-time weather data and weather forecast data in a gas supply area from the weather bureau in real time.
Preferably, the user management module includes addition, deletion, user information inquiry and modification operations of users in the system, and the right management module includes login rights of the system, usage rights of specific services of the integrated service layer, and call rights management of front-end and external systems to service interfaces in the system.
Preferably, the internal administrator terminal is used for information input, including enterprise information input, enterprise gas consumption supplement and filling, gas source price input, artificial gas consumption prediction and input, and gas approval record and filling information.
Preferably, the gas consumption prediction module predicts the total gas consumption of the whole future district according to the total gas consumption of the whole district per yesterday, the future temperature condition and whether the whole district is in the heating period, the prediction algorithm predicts the total gas consumption according to the day, the gas consumption prediction condition of the corresponding date is provided based on the days of weather forecast, and the gas consumption prediction also provides historical prediction record query, manual prediction report filling and heating interval management.
Preferably, the total gas quantity data abnormity alarm module is used for comparing the total prediction data with the actual load data, realizing total gas quantity alarm by setting a threshold value, finishing analysis of the running state of the pipe network by combining a pressure fluctuation curve when the total gas quantity data abnormity alarm module exceeds the threshold value, alarming if an abnormal pressure fluctuation condition occurs, and not alarming if a pressure abnormal point does not occur.
Preferably, the abnormal alarming module for large-scale gas consumption is used for comparing predicted data and actual load data of a large-scale user, total gas consumption alarming is achieved by setting a threshold value, whether the user applies for gas filling and increasing is judged if the total gas consumption alarming exceeds the threshold value, alarming is not carried out if the total gas consumption increasing is not filled, alarming is carried out if the total gas consumption increasing is filled, and alarming is carried out on a user side through a user side APP mode and a short message mode.
The invention also discloses a method for implementing the system for predicting the daily gas consumption and abnormal gas consumption based on the temperature, which specifically comprises the following steps:
s1, collecting flow, pressure, temperature and total gas consumption data of the gate station, each pressure regulating station and the process pipeline of the storage and distribution station through an SCADA database module in an infrastructure layer, obtaining enterprise gas consumption data through a 5G/NB-Iot meter data collection module, and simultaneously collecting real-time weather data and weather forecast data obtained by a weather base station in real time through a weather gas station database module;
s2, all data are screened, cleaned and converted through the comprehensive service layer and then are stored in a unified standardized format, and after the prediction model obtains the required standardized data, the prediction data are calculated;
s3, the user layer obtains the relevant data from the comprehensive service layer for display according to the display requirement;
s4, a gate station air supply quantity acquisition module and a key enterprise air consumption quantity acquisition module in the air consumption quantity acquisition module both acquire actual load data in an SCADA database module, and then a comparison module analyzes the actual load data and the prediction data;
s5, early warning: in the winter gas utilization shortage period, the gas utilization amount early warning is realized by comparing the prediction data with the gas utilization index, and the early warning is performed when the prediction data is close to the gas utilization index by 95 percent so as to open a standby gas source in time;
s6, alarming: comparing total predicted data with actual load data, realizing total gas consumption alarm by setting a threshold value, combining a pressure fluctuation curve to complete analysis of the running state of a pipe network when the total predicted data exceeds the threshold value, alarming when abnormal pressure fluctuation occurs, not alarming when abnormal pressure points do not occur, comparing predicted data with actual load data of a large user, realizing total gas consumption alarm by setting the threshold value, judging whether the user applies for gas increase when the threshold value exceeds the threshold value, not alarming when the user does not apply for gas increase, alarming when the user applies for gas increase, and alarming when the user side through two modes of a user side APP and a short message;
s7, after gas alarm occurs, analyzing whether gas is abnormal or leaked through background data, if judging that leakage occurs, simulating a gas leakage point, a leakage concentration and a gas diffusion range through a comprehensive service layer, automatically performing pipe explosion analysis on the leakage point position based on three-dimensional pipeline geographic information, calculating a gas valve well needing to be closed after leakage occurs and an affected enterprise range, and generating an intelligent emergency plan.
(III) advantageous effects
The invention provides a method and a system for predicting gas daily use amount and gas use abnormity alarm based on temperature. Compared with the prior art, the method has the following beneficial effects: the method and the system for predicting the daily gas consumption and gas consumption abnormity warning based on the temperature comprise a user layer, a comprehensive service layer, a service support layer and an infrastructure layer, wherein the user layer comprises a large scheduling screen, an external enterprise user terminal, an internal administrator terminal and a GIS display system, the comprehensive service layer comprises a gas consumption prediction module, a weather information acquisition module, a gas consumption reporting module, an enterprise information management module, a gas price management module, a gas batch management module, a gas consumption warning module, a gas leakage handling module and a pipe explosion analysis module, the service support layer comprises a user management module, a role management module, an authority management module, a log management module, a data dictionary module, a total gas consumption data abnormity warning module, a gas consumption approaching index warning module, a large-user gas consumption abnormity warning module, a gas leakage warning module and a pipeline geographic information module, and the infrastructure layer includes private cloud module, regional gas comprehensive database module, SCADA database module and meteorological gas station database module, the invention on the basis of the gas prediction analysis success, has confirmed that the correlation of meteorological factors such as average relative humidity, average wind pressure, average wind speed, etc. and gas consumption is not high, on the meteorological dimension, the gas consumption is mainly decided by the temperature factor, and whether it is in the heating period, influence on the gas consumption prediction is greater, the invention combines the regional gas daily gas consumption and the temperature change situation of the corresponding period that the gas company provides at the same time, improve and optimize the regional meteorological bureau gas prediction algorithm, optimize the gas consumption prediction module based on meteorological condition, has realized the daily prediction of the gas consumption of the whole district, and the prediction belongs to the comparison display with gas actual consumption, the manual prediction consumption, and is based on the data analysis, the abnormal data alarming is realized, including total gas consumption abnormal alarming, large user gas consumption abnormal alarming and gas consumption approaching gas consumption index alarming, a gas leakage model is automatically started after gas leakage is determined, a gas leakage point, a leakage concentration and a gas diffusion range are simulated, pipe explosion analysis is automatically carried out on a leakage point position based on three-dimensional pipeline geographic information, a gas valve well which needs to be closed after leakage occurs and an affected enterprise range are calculated, and an intelligent emergency rescue plan is generated.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic block diagram of the architecture of the system of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic block diagram of a structure of a gas usage reporting module according to the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic block diagram of the structure of a private cloud module of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a flow chart of an embodiment of the present invention.
In the figure, 1 user layer, 11 scheduling large screen, 12 external enterprise user terminals, 13 internal administrator terminals, 14 GIS display system, 2 comprehensive service layer, 21 gas consumption prediction module, 22 weather information acquisition module, 23 gas consumption reporting module, 231 gas consumption prediction module, 232 gas consumption acquisition module, 2321 gate station gas consumption acquisition module, 2322 key enterprise gas consumption acquisition module, 233 real-time weather data and weather forecast data acquisition module, 24 enterprise information management module, 25 gas price management module, 26 gas batch management module, 27 gas consumption alarm module, 28 gas leakage treatment module, 29 explosion analysis module, 3 service support layer, 31 user management module, 32 role management module, 33 authority management module, 34 log management module, 35 data dictionary module, 36 total gas quantity data abnormity alarm module, The system comprises a 37-gas-volume approaching gas utilization index alarm module, a 38-gas-consumption abnormity alarm module, a 39-gas leakage alarm module, a 310-pipeline geographic information module, a 4-infrastructure layer, a 41-private cloud module, a 411 Web server, a 412 application server, a 413 database server, a 42-region gas comprehensive database module, a 43 SCADA database module, a 44-meteorological-gas-station database module and a 455G/NB-Iot meter data acquisition module.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Referring to fig. 1-4, an embodiment of the invention provides a technical solution: the system for predicting the daily gas consumption and gas consumption abnormity alarm based on the temperature comprises a user layer 1, a comprehensive service layer 2, a service supporting layer 3 and an infrastructure layer 4, wherein the user layer 1 comprises a large scheduling screen 11, an external enterprise user terminal 12, an internal administrator terminal 13 and a GIS display system 14, the internal administrator terminal 13 is used for information input including enterprise information input, enterprise gas consumption compensation, gas source price input, artificial gas consumption prediction input and gas approval record input, the comprehensive service layer 2 comprises a gas consumption prediction module 21, a weather information acquisition module 22, a gas consumption reporting module 23, an enterprise information management module 24, a gas price management module 25, a gas batch management module 26, a gas consumption alarm module 27, a gas leakage handling module 28 and a burst analysis module 29, and the service supporting layer 3 comprises a user management module 31, The system comprises a role management module 32, a right management module 33, a log management module 34, a data dictionary module 35, a total gas quantity data exception alarm module 36, a gas quantity approaching gas utilization index alarm module 37, a large user gas exception alarm module 38, a gas leakage alarm module 39 and a pipeline geographic information module 310, wherein the user management module 31 comprises adding, deleting, user information inquiring and modifying operations of users in the system, the right management module 33 comprises login rights of the system and use rights of specific services of an integrated service layer 2, and call rights management of front-end and external systems to service interfaces in the system, the infrastructure layer 4 comprises a private cloud module 41, a regional gas integrated database module 42, a SCADA (supervisory control and data acquisition) module 43, a weather gas station database module 44 and a 5G/NB-Iot table data acquisition module 45, and the private cloud module 41 comprises a Web server 411, a regional gas integrated database module 42, a SCADA (supervisory control and data acquisition) module 43, a weather gas station database module 44 and a 5G/NB-Iot table data acquisition module 45, The application server 412 and the database server 413, the Web server 411, the application server 412 and the database server 413 all use Windows operating systems, and the weather station database module 44 collects data to the weather bureau through the weather base station, establishes a connection interface, and collects real-time weather data and weather forecast data in the air supply area from the weather bureau in real time.
In the embodiment of the present invention, the gas usage reporting module 23 includes a gas usage predicting module 231, an output end of the gas usage obtaining module 232, and a real-time weather data and weather forecast data obtaining module 233, an output end of the gas usage obtaining module 232 and the real-time weather data and weather forecast data obtaining module 233 are connected to an input end of the gas usage predicting module 231, the gas usage obtaining module 232 includes a gate station gas usage obtaining module 2321 and a key enterprise gas usage obtaining module 2322, an input end of the real-time weather data and weather forecast data obtaining module 233 is connected to an output end of the SCADA database module 43, an input end of the real-time weather data and weather forecast data obtaining module 233 is connected to an output end of the weather gas station database module 44, and the gas usage reporting module 23 respectively needs to obtain the gas usage data from the gas internal SCADA database module 43 and the gas station database module 44, The method comprises the steps of building real-time weather data and weather forecast data acquired by a meteorological base station, predicting future total gas consumption of a whole area by a gas consumption prediction module 21 according to yesterday total gas consumption of the whole area, future temperature conditions and whether the whole area is in a heating period, predicting by a prediction algorithm according to days, providing gas consumption prediction conditions of corresponding dates based on days of weather forecast, and predicting the gas consumption, wherein historical prediction record query, manual prediction filling and heating interval management are further provided.
In the embodiment of the invention, the total gas quantity data abnormity alarm module 36 is used for comparing total predicted data with actual load data, total gas quantity alarm is realized by setting a threshold value, the analysis of the running state of a pipe network is completed by combining a pressure fluctuation curve when the total predicted data exceeds the threshold value, alarm is performed if abnormal pressure fluctuation occurs, and no alarm is performed if no pressure abnormal point occurs.
In the embodiment of the invention, the large user gas consumption abnormity alarm module 38 is used for comparing the predicted data of the large user with the actual load data, the total gas consumption alarm is realized by setting a threshold value, whether the user applies for gas increase by filling is judged if the threshold value is exceeded, the alarm is not performed if the gas increase is not filled, the alarm is performed if the gas increase is filled, and the alarm is performed on the user side through two modes of the user side APP and the short message.
The embodiment of the invention also discloses a method for implementing the system for predicting the daily gas consumption and gas consumption abnormity alarm based on the temperature, which comprises the following steps:
s1, collecting flow, pressure, temperature and total gas consumption data of process pipelines of a gate station, each pressure regulating station and a storage and distribution station through an SCADA database module 43 in the infrastructure layer 4, acquiring enterprise gas consumption data through a 5G/NB-Iot meter data collection module 45, and simultaneously collecting real-time weather data and weather forecast data acquired by a weather base station in real time through a weather gas station database module 44;
s2, screening, cleaning and converting all data through the comprehensive service layer 2, storing the data in a uniform standardized format, and calculating the prediction data after the prediction model acquires the required standardized data;
s3, the user layer 1 acquires the relevant data from the comprehensive service layer 2 for display according to the display requirement;
s4, a gate station air supply quantity acquisition module 2321 and a key enterprise air supply quantity acquisition module 2322 in the air consumption quantity acquisition module 232 both acquire actual load data in the SCADA database module 43, and then the comparison module analyzes the actual load data and the prediction data;
s5, early warning: in the winter gas utilization shortage period, the gas utilization amount early warning is realized by comparing the prediction data with the gas utilization index, and the early warning is performed when the prediction data is close to the gas utilization index by 95 percent so as to open a standby gas source in time;
s6, alarming: comparing total predicted data with actual load data, realizing total gas consumption alarm by setting a threshold value, combining a pressure fluctuation curve to complete analysis of the running state of a pipe network when the total predicted data exceeds the threshold value, alarming when abnormal pressure fluctuation occurs, not alarming when abnormal pressure points do not occur, comparing predicted data with actual load data of a large user, realizing total gas consumption alarm by setting the threshold value, judging whether the user applies for gas increase when the threshold value exceeds the threshold value, not alarming when the user does not apply for gas increase, alarming when the user applies for gas increase, and alarming when the user side through two modes of a user side APP and a short message;
s7, after gas alarm occurs, analyzing whether gas is abnormal or leaked through background data after the gas alarm occurs, if judging that leakage occurs, simulating a gas leakage point, a leakage concentration and a gas diffusion range through the comprehensive service layer 2, automatically performing pipe explosion analysis on the leakage point position based on three-dimensional pipeline geographic information, calculating a gas valve well needing to be closed after leakage occurs and an affected enterprise range, and generating an intelligent emergency plan.
In the embodiment of the present invention, a user can respectively perform data lookup and scheduling through the scheduling large screen 11, the external enterprise user terminal 12, the internal administrator terminal 13 and the GIS display system 14 in the user layer 1, can predict the usage of gas through the gas usage prediction module 21 in the integrated service layer 2, can acquire the weather information through the weather information acquisition module 22, can acquire the gas usage and weather information through the gas usage prediction module 231, the gas usage acquisition module 232 and the real-time weather data and weather forecast data acquisition module 233 in the gas usage reporting module 23, and can perform gas usage prediction at the same time, wherein the gas usage acquisition module 232 respectively acquires the gas usage of a gate station and the gas usage of a key enterprise through the gate station gas usage acquisition module 2321 and the key enterprise gas usage acquisition module 2322, and then performs data management through the enterprise information management module 24, meanwhile, the gas price management module 25 is used for managing and controlling the gas price, or the gas batch management module 26 is used for carrying out batch processing on the gas, the gas consumption condition is detected and alarmed through the gas consumption alarming module 27, when the gas leakage processing module 28 monitors that the gas leaks, the gas pipeline is analyzed and processed through the pipe explosion analyzing module 29, the user role, the authority and the log are respectively managed through the user management module 31, the role management module 32, the authority management module 33 and the log management module 34, the total gas quantity data is detected through the total gas quantity data abnormity alarming module 36, if the dangerous value is reached, the alarm is given out, meanwhile, the detection and alarm can be carried out on the gas consumption approaching index through the gas quantity approaching gas consumption index alarming module 37, and the alarm is carried out on the gas consumption abnormity condition of the user with large gas consumption through the large user gas consumption abnormity alarming module 38, and the gas leakage alarm module 39 gives an alarm when gas leakage is detected.
In the embodiment of the invention, the infrastructure layer 4 comprises hardware infrastructure and external data resources required by the Xiqing gas early warning command intelligent platform.
In the embodiment of the invention, the service supporting layer 3 is based on a south China general GBase general development platform, provides general service supporting functions of user management, role management, authority management, a data dictionary and log management for the system, adopts the most mature RBAC model in the industry, respectively configures 'user-role-authority', and realizes the safety and flexibility of user authority control through the incidence relation among the three. Wherein:
the intelligent platform for role management and West green gas early warning command comprises three roles, namely an administrator, a common user and an external user, which respectively correspond to a system administrator, a large-screen display and West green gas units. After the system logs in, corresponding system interfaces, namely a system management interface, a scheduling large screen interface and an external enterprise gas filling interface, are displayed according to different roles.
And the data dictionary provides support for modules of price management, air source management and the like, and stores information of air source types, price units and the like in the form of the data dictionary.
And log management, which mainly records information such as system running state, external interface calling condition and the like, can automatically persist abnormal information, saves a fault site, and provides guidance for system operation and maintenance, fault location and system optimization.
In the embodiment of the invention, the comprehensive service layer 2 comprises all core business functions of the system, including functions of gas consumption prediction, weather information acquisition, gas consumption reporting, enterprise information management, gas price management, gas approval management, gas consumption alarm, gas leakage disposal and pipe explosion analysis.
And collecting weather information, wherein the weather information collection comprises real-time weather information collection and weather forecast collection. The real-time weather acquisition acquires weather data including temperature, humidity, wind power and wind direction from the SCADA system, and is used for large-screen display of real-time weather. Weather forecast data is obtained from a meteorological base station, and the weather forecast data comprises weather conditions, highest temperature, lowest temperature, wind power, wind direction and the like, and is used for predicting and displaying total gas.
The method comprises the following steps of reporting the gas consumption, namely reporting an external enterprise user and reporting an internal administrator. In terms of business, an external enterprise user logs in a system by using an opened account, checks a historical report record and reports the expected total gas consumption of the next day of the modified gas unit; and filling the gas forecast for the enterprises which have not been reported by the internal administrator as a supplement. In addition, the internal administrator can also check the comparison between the reported forecast amount and the actual gas consumption of each enterprise. The scheduling center can also view information such as 10/20 ranking units before yesterday gas usage and the predicted gas usage through a large screen.
The enterprise information management realizes the comprehensive management of the basic information of the gas consumption unit of the West green gas, including the name, address, contact, gas consumption place, gas consumption property, operation range and the like of the enterprise, and the corresponding relation between the gas meter and the enterprise. When an enterprise is newly built, an external enterprise user is additionally arranged, information such as a user name and a password during login is set, and the external user can directly use the user name and the password to log in a system and report the gas consumption.
In the embodiment of the invention, the user layer 1 covers all main external users faced by the service data of the system, including a scheduling large screen, an internal manager, external enterprise users and a GIS display system. Wherein:
the large scheduling screen is deployed in a scheduling center of a gas company and is mainly responsible for comparing the prediction of gas consumption with actual consumption, the gas consumption is counted according to hours, days, weeks, months and years, and meanwhile, weather curves, 10/20 ranking before enterprise gas consumption and gas approval record information can be obtained.
And the external enterprise users are mainly responsible for filling and reporting the next day gas consumption data of respective enterprises.
The GIS display system is mainly responsible for displaying real-time information of gas stations and pipelines in combination with a three-dimensional GIS, and please refer to a project development summary report of a three-dimensional GIS comprehensive display system of an early warning and commanding intelligent platform of a gas company in the West economic development area of Tianjin.
In the embodiment of the invention, the prediction model is specifically as follows:
1. heating period prediction model
Wherein:
2. Non-heating period prediction model
In the embodiment of the invention, a mode of combining meteorological prediction data and actual data is adopted, wherein the prediction data mainly comes from a meteorological bureau interface, so that the prediction model can also support the prediction of the gas consumption in the whole area within 5 days, and the real-time weather adopts self-test real-time weather data and weather forecast data of a meteorological base station, including real-time temperature, wind power, humidity and the like, and is used for real-time meteorological curve description and data support of a gas prediction model.
In the embodiment of the invention, the open source Java EE rapid development platform is formed by high integration and encapsulation based on a general development platform of GBase data engineering, and has high efficiency, high performance and strong safety. In the project, NutsDao is used as a data access layer, Apache Shiro is used as an authority authorization layer, Ehcahe caches common data, and Activit is used as a workflow engine.
In the embodiment of the invention, the real-time weather data and the weather forecast data are different from the original webpage captured weather data, and a special weather line is established with a local weather bureau to obtain accurate weather forecast data so as to improve the forecast accuracy.
In the embodiment of the invention, the load prediction of a single user can be realized by gas utilization prediction, and the load prediction frequency is increased at a gas utilization peak.
(1) Forecasting total gas consumption and forecasting gas consumption of large users;
(2) when the gas utilization is tense in winter, the load forecasting frequency is increased, and the once-a-day gas utilization is changed into once in two gas utilization peaks in the morning and afternoon.
In the embodiment of the invention, the data comparison is used as decision basis for gas quantity early warning and leakage early warning, and comprises
(1) The SCADA system acquires gas supply data at the upstream of the gas field station and compares the gas supply data with load prediction data;
(2) the large user flow meter uploads the gas consumption data by adding the 5G/NB-Iot data remote transmission module, and the data is compared with the large user load prediction data.
In the embodiment of the invention, the integrated service layer 2 and the service support layer 3 both perform data writing and reading operations through the infrastructure layer 4, then the user layer 1 performs display and interaction, the user layer 1 performs display and presentation on the external enterprise user terminal 12, the internal administrator terminal 13 and the GIS display system 14 through the large scheduling screen 11 so that an operator can visually see the prediction result, the large scheduling screen 11 is an LED large screen and is used for displaying the data integrated service layer 2 and the service support layer 3 through a cable computer, the web interface of the external enterprise user terminal 12 is used for displaying the prediction result and the user gas consumption, namely the gas consumption prediction module 21, the weather information acquisition module 22, the gas consumption reporting module 23 and the web interface of the internal administrator terminal 13 are used for configuring the integrated service layer 2 and the service support layer 3 by the operator, the GIS display system 14 is used for displaying an enterprise information management module 24, a gas leakage handling module 28 and a pipe explosion analysis module 29.
In the embodiment of the present invention, the gas consumption prediction module 21 outputs the data to be displayed in the gas consumption prediction module 21 through the gas consumption prediction module 231, and the weather information collection module 22 collects data of temperature, pressure, temperature and humidity through the outdoor weather station device, transmits the data to the weather collection host through the rs232 terminal line, and stores the data in the weather gas station database module 44.
In the embodiment of the present invention, the enterprise information management module 24 is used to edit the enterprise basic information data, and the user management module 31, the role management module 32, and the right management module 33 of the service support layer 3 are all dedicated functions of the internal administrator terminal 13, and create and manage the right of the secondary user through these modules.
In the embodiment of the present invention, the user management module 31 performs add/delete, personal information editing, role management module 32 and right management module 33 configuration on a secondary user through the internal administrator terminal 13, the role management module 32 creates and deletes a role, such as an operator, a dispatcher, etc., the right management module 33 configures right for the role, the log management module 34 is used for recording operation records of personnel on the system and operation records of data read/write, the data dictionary module 35 is used for defining fields and data types of the database region gas integrated database module 42, the SCADA database module 43 and the gas station database module 44, such as int, char, string, etc., the infrastructure layer 4 is used for writing and reading data, the private cloud module 41 is used as a physical container to carry the region gas integrated database module 42, the SCADA database module 43 and the gas station database module 44, the SCADA database module 43 is used for carrying part of the modules in the service support layer 3, and the weather station database module 44 is used for carrying part of the modules in the integrated service layer 2.
And those not described in detail in this specification are well within the skill of those in the art.
It is noted that, herein, relational terms such as first and second, and the like may be used solely to distinguish one entity or action from another entity or action without necessarily requiring or implying any actual such relationship or order between such entities or actions. Also, the terms "comprises," "comprising," or any other variation thereof, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises a list of elements does not include only those elements but may include other elements not expressly listed or inherent to such process, method, article, or apparatus.
Although embodiments of the present invention have been shown and described, it will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that changes, modifications, substitutions and alterations can be made in these embodiments without departing from the principles and spirit of the invention, the scope of which is defined in the appended claims and their equivalents.
Claims (10)
1. Daily gas dosage of gas and gas use anomaly alarm's system based on temperature prediction, including user layer (1), comprehensive service layer (2), service supporting layer (3) and infrastructure layer (4), its characterized in that: the user layer (1) comprises a large scheduling screen (11), an external enterprise user terminal (12), an internal administrator terminal (13) and a GIS display system (14), the comprehensive service layer (2) comprises a gas consumption prediction module (21), a weather information acquisition module (22), a gas consumption reporting module (23), an enterprise information management module (24), a gas price management module (25), a gas batch management module (26), a gas consumption alarm module (27), a gas leakage handling module (28) and a pipe explosion analysis module (29), and the service support layer (3) comprises a user management module (31), a role management module (32), an authority management module (33), a log management module (34), a data dictionary module (35), a total gas data abnormity alarm module (36), a gas quantity approaching gas consumption index alarm module (37), The system comprises an alarm module (38) for gas anomaly of large users, a gas leakage alarm module (39) and a pipeline geographic information module (310), wherein an infrastructure layer (4) comprises a private cloud module (41), a regional gas comprehensive database module (42), an SCADA database module (43), a meteorological gas station database module (44) and a 5G/NB-Iot meter data acquisition module (45);
the gas consumption reporting module (23) comprises a gas consumption predicting module (231), a gas consumption acquiring module (232) and a real-time weather data and weather forecast data acquiring module (233), the output end of the gas consumption acquiring module (232) and the output end of the real-time weather data and weather forecast data acquiring module (233) are connected with the input end of the gas consumption predicting module (231), the gas consumption acquiring module (232) comprises a gate station gas supply acquiring module (2321) and a key enterprise gas consumption acquiring module (2322), the input end of the real-time weather data and weather forecast data acquiring module (233) is connected with the output end of the SCADA database module (43), and the input end of the real-time weather data and weather forecast data acquiring module (233) is connected with the output end of the weather station database module (44).
2. The system for predicting the daily gas consumption and alarming for abnormal gas consumption based on the air temperature as claimed in claim 1, wherein: the private cloud module (41) comprises a Web server (411), an application server (412) and a database server (413), and Windows operating systems are used between the Web server (411), the application server (412) and the database server (413).
3. The system for predicting the daily gas consumption and alarming for abnormal gas consumption based on the air temperature as claimed in claim 1, wherein: the gas usage reporting module (23) needs to acquire gas usage data from a gas internal SCADA database module (43) and acquire real-time weather data and weather forecast data from a weather gas station database module (44).
4. The system for predicting the daily gas consumption and alarming for abnormal gas consumption based on the air temperature as claimed in claim 1, wherein: the weather gas station database module (44) collects data to a weather bureau through a weather base station, establishes a connection interface and collects real-time weather data and weather forecast data in a gas supply area from the weather bureau in real time.
5. The system for predicting daily gas consumption and gas consumption abnormality based on air temperature according to claim 1, characterized in that: the user management module (31) comprises adding, deleting, user information inquiring and modifying operations of users in the system, and the authority management module (33) comprises login authority of the system, use authority of each specific service of the integrated service layer (2), and calling authority management of each service interface in the system by the front end and the external system.
6. The system for predicting the daily gas consumption and alarming for abnormal gas consumption based on the air temperature as claimed in claim 1, wherein: the internal manager terminal (13) is used for information input, including enterprise information input, enterprise gas consumption supplement and filling, gas source price input, manual gas consumption prediction input and gas approval record filling information.
7. The system for predicting the daily gas consumption and alarming for abnormal gas consumption based on the air temperature as claimed in claim 1, wherein: the gas consumption prediction module (21) predicts the total gas consumption of the whole future district according to the total gas consumption of the whole district, the future temperature condition and whether the whole district is in the heating period, a prediction algorithm predicts according to the day, provides the gas consumption prediction condition of the corresponding date based on the days of weather forecast, and the gas consumption prediction also provides historical prediction record query, manual prediction report and heating interval management.
8. The system for predicting the daily gas consumption and alarming for abnormal gas consumption based on the air temperature as claimed in claim 1, wherein: the total gas quantity data abnormity alarm module (36) is used for comparing total prediction data with actual load data, realizing total gas quantity alarm by setting a threshold value, finishing analysis of the running state of a pipe network by combining a pressure fluctuation curve when the total gas quantity data abnormity alarm module exceeds the threshold value, alarming if abnormal pressure fluctuation occurs, and not alarming if no pressure abnormal point occurs.
9. The system for predicting the daily gas consumption and alarming for abnormal gas consumption based on the air temperature as claimed in claim 1, wherein: the large user gas consumption abnormity alarm module (38) is used for comparing predicted data and actual load data of the large user, alarming of total gas consumption is achieved by setting a threshold value, and meanwhile alarming is conducted on a user side through a user side APP mode and a short message mode.
10. A method for predicting gas consumption and gas use abnormity alarm based on air temperature, which is applied to the system of claims 1-9, and is characterized in that: the method specifically comprises the following steps:
s1, collecting flow, pressure, temperature and total gas consumption data of process pipelines of a gate station, each pressure regulating station and a storage and distribution station through an SCADA database module (43) in an infrastructure layer (4), acquiring enterprise gas consumption data through a 5G/NB-Iot meter data collection module (45), and simultaneously collecting real-time weather data and weather forecast data acquired by a weather base station in real time through a weather gas station database module (44);
s2, all data are filtered, cleaned and converted through the comprehensive service layer (2) and then are stored in a unified standardized format, and after the required standardized data are obtained through the gas consumption prediction module (231), prediction data are calculated;
s3, the user layer (1) acquires the relevant data from the comprehensive service layer (2) for displaying according to the display requirement;
s4, a gate station air supply quantity acquisition module (2321) and a key enterprise air supply quantity acquisition module (2322) in the air consumption quantity acquisition module (232) both acquire actual load data in an SCADA database module (43), and then the actual load data and the prediction data are analyzed by an air consumption quantity prediction module (231);
s5, early warning: in the winter gas utilization shortage period, the gas utilization amount early warning is realized by comparing the prediction data with the gas utilization index, and the early warning is carried out when the prediction data is 95% of the gas utilization index, so that a standby gas source can be started in time;
s6, alarming: comparing total predicted data with actual load data, realizing total gas consumption alarm by setting a threshold value, combining a pressure fluctuation curve to complete analysis of the running state of a pipe network when the total predicted data exceeds the threshold value, alarming when abnormal pressure fluctuation occurs, not alarming when abnormal pressure points do not occur, comparing predicted data with actual load data of a large user, realizing total gas consumption alarm by setting the threshold value, judging whether the user applies for gas increase when the threshold value exceeds the threshold value, not alarming when the user does not apply for gas increase, alarming when the user applies for gas increase, and alarming when the user side through two modes of a user side APP and a short message;
s7, after gas alarm occurs, analyzing whether gas is abnormal or leaked through background data, if judging that leakage occurs, simulating gas leakage points, leakage concentration and gas diffusion range through the comprehensive service layer (2), automatically performing pipe explosion analysis on the leakage points based on three-dimensional pipeline geographic information, calculating gas valve wells needing to be closed after leakage occurs and the range of affected enterprises, and generating an intelligent emergency plan.
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Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN117826693A (en) * | 2024-03-05 | 2024-04-05 | 山东港源管道物流有限公司 | Intelligent oil depot monitoring and early warning system and method |
| CN117826693B (en) * | 2024-03-05 | 2024-05-17 | 山东港源管道物流有限公司 | Intelligent oil depot monitoring and early warning system and method |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN117826693A (en) * | 2024-03-05 | 2024-04-05 | 山东港源管道物流有限公司 | Intelligent oil depot monitoring and early warning system and method |
| CN117826693B (en) * | 2024-03-05 | 2024-05-17 | 山东港源管道物流有限公司 | Intelligent oil depot monitoring and early warning system and method |
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