CN114895358B - Earthquake and tsunami rapid early warning method and system - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention relates to an earthquake tsunami rapid early warning method, which comprises the following steps: acquiring longitude and latitude, magnitude and seismic source depth of the epicenter position; calculating the length, width and slippage of the rectangular fracture belt by an empirical formula according to the magnitude of the epicenter position; according to the longitude and latitude of the epicenter position, the SIFT seismic source plate to which the earthquake belongs is judged; calculating the length, width and slippage of a rectangular fracture zone obtained by combining a strike angle, a slippage angle and an inclination angle of an SIFT seismic source plate belonging to the epicenter position with an empirical formula, and calculating the deformation of the sea bottom by applying an Okada model; applying a static pressure NEOWAVE model to numerically simulate the tsunami propagation process; according to the propagation and evolution conditions of the tsunami, evaluating the risk level of the tsunami; and an early warning system corresponding to the method; the tsunami early warning method and the tsunami early warning system based on the invention have the characteristics of low cost, high calculation speed, high accuracy and the like.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of tsunami early warning and marine informatization services, in particular to a method and a system for quickly early warning earthquake tsunami.
Background
The tsunami wave height and arrival time database of earthquake excitation of each unit of the fracture zone is established based on numerical simulation, and the tsunami basic parameters are inverted according to the early monitoring result of the earthquake tsunami, so that the method is a key technology for developing a tsunami early warning system and is also a tsunami inversion early warning method commonly adopted in the world. Meanwhile, the technology is also applied to the fine simulation and research of the seismic source. Aiming at tsunami early warning research, mostly, a tsunami early warning database is established, and the slippage of a fault is calculated by the aid of green function inverse problems and a multi-buoy inversion method. And the fault sliding is also calculated by calculating the inversion of a unit plate, a buoy and a satellite.
The construction process of the tsunami database in south China sea mainly comprises the steps of dividing a potential Manila gully seismic source into a plurality of unit plates, taking unit sliding of each unit plate as an independent seismic source to carry out numerical simulation of tsunami, recording time sequences of buoy positions and tsunami wave heights of main monitoring points, and forming the tsunami database. If an earthquake occurs, the data monitored by the buoy is used for quick inversion and tsunami early warning is issued.
At present, single-buoy inversion is mainly adopted in the tsunami early warning method for south China sea, the single-buoy early warning method can well predict single plate earthquake with about eight levels, but if a large earthquake with a higher earthquake level occurs, the fracture zone range is large, and the single-buoy inversion is difficult to predict accurately. Meanwhile, the tsunami is early warned by buoy inversion, so that a buoy platform is constructed at high cost, and a database is often established for potential tsunami sources through a large amount of numerical calculation.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the technical problems, the invention establishes a method and an early warning system which can quickly early warn sudden tsunami without building a buoy platform and building a tsunami database according to the basic characteristics of a seismic source in a tsunami short-term flooding forecast (SIFT) system, and specifically comprises the following steps:
a rapid early warning method for earthquake tsunami comprises the following steps:
acquiring longitude and latitude, magnitude and seismic source depth of the epicenter position;
calculating the length, width and slippage of the rectangular fracture belt by an empirical formula according to the magnitude of the epicenter position;
judging the SIFT seismic source plate to which the earthquake belongs according to the longitude and latitude of the epicenter position to obtain seismic source plate parameters of the SIFT seismic source plate to which the epicenter position belongs;
calculating the seabed deformation data by using an Okada model according to the seismic source plate parameters and the length, width and slippage of the rectangular fracture zone calculated by an empirical formula;
simulating a tsunami propagation process according to the seabed deformation data;
and evaluating the tsunami risk level of the coastal city according to the tsunami propagation process.
Further, the source plate parameters include: strike angle, bank angle and slip angle.
Further, the step of calculating the length, the width and the slippage of the rectangular fracture band according to the magnitude of the epicenter position by an empirical formula specifically comprises:
a. magnitude of earthquake
Conversion into seismic moments
：
b. Determining the area of the earthquake fault zoneS：
c. According to area of earthquake fault zoneSRecombination fracture zone lengthLAnd width of broken beltWEmpirical proportional relationship ofW/L= 0.2423Calculating the length of the earthquake fault zoneL：
d. Determining the width of the fracture zone
e. Calculating the amount of slip
Wherein
Is the shear modulus.
Further, according to the evaluated tsunami risk level, an early warning signal is sent to the area exceeding the preset risk level.
Further, the simulation of the tsunami propagation process is specifically performed by using a static pressure NEOWAVE numerical model.
An earthquake tsunami rapid early warning system, comprising:
the epicenter information acquisition module: the method comprises the steps of obtaining longitude and latitude, seismic magnitude and seismic source depth of a seismic center position;
fracture zone size calculation module: the method is used for calculating the length, the width and the slippage of the rectangular fracture belt by an empirical formula according to the magnitude of the epicenter position;
the seismic source plate judging module: the earthquake center positioning system is used for judging the SIFT earthquake source plate to which the earthquake belongs according to the longitude and latitude of the earthquake center position to obtain the earthquake source plate parameters of the SIFT earthquake source plate to which the earthquake center position belongs;
the seabed deformation calculation module: the system is used for calculating the length, the width and the slippage of the rectangular fracture zone obtained by combining the seismic source plate parameters obtained by the seismic source plate judgment module with the fracture zone size calculation module, and calculating seabed deformation data by applying an Okada model;
tsunami propagation simulation module: the method is used for simulating a tsunami propagation process according to the seabed deformation data and evaluating the tsunami risk level.
Further, the source plate parameters include: strike angle, bank angle and slip angle.
Further, the step of calculating the length, the width and the slippage of the rectangular fracture strip according to the magnitude of the epicenter position by an empirical formula specifically comprises the following steps:
a. magnitude of earthquake
Conversion into seismic moments
:
b. Determining the area of the earthquake fault zoneS:
c. According to the area of earthquake fault zoneSRecombination fracture zone lengthLAnd width of broken beltWEmpirical proportional relationship ofW/L= 0.2423Calculating the length of the earthquake fault zoneL:
d. Calculating the width of the fracture zone
e. Calculating the amount of slip
Wherein
Is the shear modulus.
And further, the system also comprises an early warning signal sending module which is used for sending an early warning signal to an area exceeding the preset danger level according to the evaluated tsunami danger level.
Further, the simulation of the tsunami propagation process is specifically performed by using a static pressure NEOWAVE numerical model.
The tsunami early warning method and the early warning system based on the invention have the following technical effects:
the cost is low, a buoy platform with high price does not need to be built, and a database is not needed to be built for potential tsunami sources through a large amount of numerical calculation. The method has low early warning cost, can be widely applied to various fracture zones with tsunami risks, and provides reference for research of tsunami early warning.
The calculation speed is high, and the tsunami can be completed within 10 minutes in a 6-hour propagation process. And the calculation speed is high, people in related areas can be evacuated quickly, related disaster prevention and reduction measures are implemented in time, and reference is provided for tsunami early warning work in various coastal areas.
The tsunami short-term inundation forecasting method has high accuracy, and seismic source parameters (the trend angle, the inclination angle and the slip angle) of a region with potential earthquake risk in a tsunami short-term inundation forecasting (SIFT) system are applied to the Okada model, so that the problem that the parameters such as the trend angle, the inclination angle and the slip angle cannot be judged only by applying an empirical formula when the tsunami is subjected to an earthquake in a certain place and the seabed deformation is solved, and the accuracy of actual tsunami simulation is guaranteed.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, in which like references indicate similar elements, illustrate exemplary embodiments of the invention and, together with the description, serve to explain the principles of the invention. In the drawings:
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of tsunami rapid warning based on SIFT seismic source plate parameters;
FIG. 2 is a schematic view of the fracture zone parameters of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a diagram of a tsunami rapid warning system based on SIFT seismic source plate parameters;
FIG. 4 is a comparison graph of maximum tsunami wave heights for Mw8.0-level tsunami numerical simulation of E1-E4 seismic source parameters of Liu et al and A1-A4 seismic source parameters of the invention by applying a Newave numerical model.
Detailed Description
In the present invention, the term "and/or" is intended to cover all possible combinations and sub-combinations of the listed elements, including any one, any sub-combination, or all of the elements listed individually, without necessarily excluding other elements. Unless otherwise indicated, the terms "first," "second," and the like are used to describe various elements and are not intended to define positional, chronological, or importance relationships of the elements, and such terms are used merely to distinguish one element from another. Unless otherwise indicated, the terms "front, back, upper, lower, left, right" and the like indicate orientations or positional relationships that are generally based on the orientations or positional relationships shown in the drawings, and are only for convenience of description and simplicity of description, and are not to be construed as limiting the scope of the present invention.
The invention takes a Pacific ocean Environmental research center PMEL (Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory) tsunami short-term flood forecast (SIFT) system seismic source plate as a tsunami source (https:// SIFT. The seismic source database was originally compiled by the tsunami short-term flood forecast (SIFT) system by gca et al, NOAA, including all known potential seismic sources of the pacific, atlantic and indian oceans. Taking the manila sea ditch most concerned by tsunami disasters in south China sea as an example, a manila sea ditch SIFT seismic source is composed of 22 seismic source plates with the length of 100km and the width of 50km, and the parameters are specifically shown in Table 1.
TABLE 1 PMEL Tsunami short term inundation forecast System manila gully seismic source plate data
As shown in FIG. 1, the tsunami warning method is mainly used for rapidly early warning tsunamis based on rapid determination, parallel calculation and visualization technology of SIFT seismic source plate parameters. Among these, the most important is the rapid determination of the rectangular fracture zone parameters. FIG. 2 shows the fracture zone parameters required for early warning, including strike angleθAngle of inclinationδSliding angleλSeismic source depth H, fracture zone lengthLAnd widthWAnd amount of slipD. If an earthquake occurs, the latitude and longitude of the epicenter and the magnitude of the earthquake
May be obtained first. Magnitude of vibration
And the epicenter location latitude and longitude and the seismic source depth H can be obtained from USGS (https:// earth quakeθTip and tiltBevel angleδAngle of slipλAre available from the data in table 1. The estimation of other parameters can be obtained by the following steps;
(1) According to empirical formula, the magnitude of vibration is determined
Conversion into seismic moments
:
(2) According to seismic moments
Area of earthquake fault zoneSThe area of the earthquake fracture zone is obtained by an empirical formulaS:
(3) According to area of earthquake fault zoneSRecombination fracture zone lengthLAnd width of broken beltWEmpirical proportional relationship ofW/L =0.2423Calculating the length of the earthquake fault zoneL:
(4) Width of fracture zone
(5) Amount of slipD: the slippage of fracture zone is different in earthquakes with different earthquake magnitudes. Vibration moment
And amount of slipDThe relationship between applies the formula:
to obtain the slippage
Wherein
Is the shear modulus.
(6) And quickly judging the main SIFT seismic source plate of the earthquake according to the longitude and latitude of the epicenter position.
(7) The trend angle of the SIFT plate belonging to the earthquake epicenter positionθAngle of inclinationδSliding angleλAnd seismic source parameters such as seismic source depth and the like, calculating the length, width and slippage of the obtained rectangular fracture zone by combining an empirical formula, and finally calculating the submarine deformation by applying an Okada model.
(8) And (3) rapidly simulating the propagation evolution situation of the tsunami by applying a static pressure NEOWAVE numerical model. NEOWAVE is a Tsunami model certified by the National Tsunami Hazard simulation Program (National Tsunami) in the United states, can accurately simulate the Tsunami wave climbing and overbank process, can effectively reconstruct the offshore rush current caused by Tsunami, and is widely applied to seabed seismic source inversion and earthquake Tsunami disaster evaluation by different academic groups and business institutions in the world.
(9) As shown in table 2, according to the tsunami risk level defined in "storm surge, storm, tsunami, and sea ice disaster emergency plan" revised in 2015: in areas with the tsunami wave height not exceeding 0.3 m, the tsunami danger level is I level, and the influence degree is no influence; in areas with the tsunami wave height of more than 0.3 m but not more than 100 m, the tsunami risk level is II level, and the influence degree is offshore risk; in areas with the tsunami wave height of more than 1 meter but not more than 1 meter, the tsunami risk level is level III, and the influence degree is the submergence risk; in areas with tsunami wave heights over 3 meters, the tsunami danger level is IV level, and serious inundation danger exists. And carrying out quick early warning on the highlight area according to the grade classification standard.
TABLE 2 Tsunami Risk level definitions
Fig. 3 shows a tsunami rapid early warning system based on the plate parameters of the SIFT seismic source, which corresponds to the early warning method and specifically includes: the earthquake center information acquisition module, the fracture zone size calculation module, the seismic source plate judgment module, the seabed deformation calculation module and the tsunami propagation simulation module.
The epicenter information acquisition module is used for acquiring longitude and latitude, magnitude and seismic source depth of an epicenter position; the fracture zone size calculation module calculates the length, width and slippage of the rectangular fracture zone according to the magnitude of the epicenter position by the empirical formula; the seismic source plate determination module determines the SIFT seismic source plate to which the earthquake belongs according to the longitude and latitude of the earthquake center position to obtain seismic source plate parameters of the SIFT seismic source plate to which the earthquake center position belongs; the seabed deformation calculation module calculates the length, the width and the slippage of the obtained rectangular fracture zone by combining the strike angle, the slippage angle and the inclination angle obtained by the seismic source plate judgment module with the fracture zone size calculation module, and calculates seabed deformation data by applying an Okada model; and the tsunami propagation simulation module simulates a tsunami propagation process according to the seabed deformation data and evaluates the tsunami risk level. The tsunami monitoring system can further comprise an early warning signal sending module which is used for sending early warning signals to areas exceeding the reserved danger level according to the evaluated tsunami danger level.
The tsunami early warning method is used for carrying out numerical simulation on tsunami sources with different seismic levels, is high in calculation speed, can complete calculation within 10 minutes in the process of calculating and simulating tsunami propagation for 6 hours. And the simulation result has better goodness of fit with the research results of other experts.
To verify the accuracy of the seismic source design method and numerical simulation of the present invention, the present invention refers to the study of the manila nose-down band by Liu et al (Liu P L F, wang X, salisbury a J2009. Tsunami hazard and early warning system in South China sea. J Asian Earth Sci, 36: 2-12.). Liu et al designs complete seismic source parameters of six seismic source plates at Mw8.0, numerically simulates a tsunami propagation process caused by Mw8.0 earthquake of each plate by applying a COMCOT tsunami model, and researches show that E1-E4 plates have large influence on south China sea, and the invention simulates the tsunami propagation process of E1-E4 plates by applying a static pressure NEOWAVE model. Meanwhile, the seismic source parameters of A1-A4 plates at similar epicenter positions are obtained by applying the seismic source design method. Newave is applied to carry out Mw8.0-grade tsunami numerical simulation on E1-E4 seismic source parameters of Liu and the like and A1-A4 seismic source parameters designed by the invention, and the maximum tsunami wave height is shown in figure 4. As can be seen from fig. 4, the difference between the maximum tsunami wave heights in the coastal region near the shore is small, and the simulation result goodness of fit is good.
Therefore, the early warning method and the early warning system have the characteristics of low cost, high calculation speed, high accuracy and the like, and can provide guarantee for the actual tsunami early warning accuracy.
It is to be understood that the present invention has been described with reference to certain embodiments and that various changes in form and details may be made therein by those skilled in the art without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention. In addition, many modifications may be made to adapt a particular situation or material to the teachings of the invention without departing from the essential scope thereof. Therefore, it is intended that the invention not be limited to the particular embodiment disclosed, but that the invention will include all embodiments falling within the scope of the appended claims.
Claims (4)
1. A rapid early warning method for earthquake tsunami is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring longitude and latitude, seismic magnitude and seismic source depth of the epicenter position;
calculating the length, width and slippage of the rectangular fracture belt by an empirical formula according to the magnitude of the epicenter position;
according to the latitude and longitude of the epicenter position, the SIFT seismic source plate to which the earthquake belongs is judged, and the seismic source plate parameters of the SIFT seismic source plate to which the epicenter position belongs are obtained, wherein the seismic source plate parameters comprise: strike angle, bank angle and slip angle;
calculating the seabed deformation data by using an Okada model according to the seismic source plate parameters and the length, width and slippage of the rectangular fracture zone calculated by an empirical formula;
according to the seabed deformation data, a static pressure NEOWAVE numerical model is applied to simulate a tsunami propagation process;
evaluating the tsunami risk level of the coastal city according to the tsunami propagation process;
the step of calculating the length, the width and the slippage of the rectangular fracture zone by an empirical formula according to the magnitude of the epicenter position specifically comprises the following steps:
a. magnitude of earthquake
Conversion into seismic moments
:
Is the shear modulus.
2. The earthquake and tsunami quick warning method according to claim 1, further comprising transmitting a warning signal to an area exceeding a predetermined risk level according to the evaluated risk level of the tsunami.
3. An earthquake tsunami rapid early warning system, comprising:
the epicenter information acquisition module: the method comprises the steps of obtaining longitude and latitude, magnitude and seismic source depth of a seismic center position;
fracture zone size calculation module: the method is used for calculating the length, the width and the slippage of the rectangular fracture belt by an empirical formula according to the magnitude of the epicenter position;
the seismic source plate judging module: the method is used for judging the SIFT seismic source plate to which the earthquake belongs according to the longitude and latitude of the epicenter position to obtain the seismic source plate parameters of the SIFT seismic source plate to which the epicenter position belongs, and the seismic source plate parameters comprise: strike angle, bank angle and slip angle;
the seabed deformation calculation module: the system is used for calculating the length, the width and the slippage of the rectangular fracture zone obtained by combining the seismic source plate parameters obtained by the seismic source plate judgment module with the fracture zone size calculation module, and calculating seabed deformation data by applying an Okada model;
tsunami propagation simulation module: the method is used for simulating a tsunami propagation process and evaluating the tsunami risk level by applying a static pressure NEOWAVE numerical model according to seabed deformation data;
the step of calculating the length, the width and the slippage of the rectangular fracture strip by an empirical formula according to the magnitude of the epicenter position specifically comprises the following steps:
a. magnitude of earthquake
Conversion into seismic moments
:
Is the shear modulus.
4. An earthquake and tsunami rapid early warning system according to claim 3, further comprising an early warning signal sending module for sending an early warning signal to an area exceeding a predetermined risk level according to the evaluated risk level of the tsunami.
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