CN114841455A

CN114841455A - Logistics transportation aging forecasting method and device, electronic equipment and storage medium

Info

Publication number: CN114841455A
Application number: CN202210549392.1A
Authority: CN
Inventors: 耿大鹏; 谭伯轩; 李文龙; 王跃; 高卫祥
Original assignee: Hongxun Supply Chain Technology Co ltd
Current assignee: Hongxun Supply Chain Technology Co ltd
Priority date: 2022-05-20
Filing date: 2022-05-20
Publication date: 2022-08-02

Abstract

The application relates to a logistics transportation timeliness forecasting method and device, electronic equipment and a storage medium. The method comprises the following steps: the method comprises the steps of obtaining logistics distribution information, wherein the logistics distribution information comprises a delivery place, a receiving place and a logistics route, and the logistics route comprises at least one transfer station; acquiring historical transit time corresponding to each transit station, wherein each transit station corresponds to at least one historical transit time; determining the predicted transfer time length according to all the historical transfer time lengths corresponding to each transfer station; determining an estimated transportation time length according to the delivery place, the receiving place and the logistics route, wherein the estimated transportation time length is the time length of transportation between transfer stations of a city where the delivery place is located and the receiving place; acquiring the estimated delivery time, and determining the estimated distribution time according to the estimated delivery time, the estimated transportation time and all the estimated transfer time; and determining the expected delivery time according to the expected distribution time and the obtained distribution arrangement of the city where the receiving place is located. The method and the device have the effect of predicting the arrival time of the goods.

Description

Logistics transportation aging forecasting method and device, electronic equipment and storage medium

Technical Field

The application relates to the field of supply chains, in particular to a logistics transportation timeliness forecasting method and device, electronic equipment and a storage medium.

Background

The supply chain covers every business activity between the users concerning the formation and delivery of the final product or service, starting from the supplier of the raw materials, through the processes of factory development, processing, production and wholesale retail.

The basic elements that make up the supply chain include: the system comprises suppliers, product manufacturing enterprises (manufacturers), distribution enterprises, retail enterprises and consumers, wherein the suppliers provide raw materials or parts for the manufacturers, the manufacturers receive the raw materials or the parts provided by the suppliers and carry out product production, development and after-sales service, the distribution enterprises deliver the produced products to product circulation agency enterprises, and the retail enterprises are used for selling the products to the consumers. In each link of the supply chain, a plurality of suppliers, manufacturers, distribution enterprises and retail enterprises may be included, and goods circulate in each link to form a complete supply chain.

In the supply chain transportation service, a logistics company needs to send products or goods from an upstream enterprise in a supply chain to a downstream enterprise in the supply chain to realize circulation of the products or goods, and in the goods circulation process, the expected delivery time of the goods is predicted in real time, so that the logistics progress can be checked in time by a receiving enterprise, and planning and arrangement are facilitated.

However, the estimated delivery time cannot be known before the product or the goods are delivered, and for the receiving company, the arrival time is grasped during the transportation, so that it is difficult to arrange the delivery amount of the goods in advance, and it is difficult to arrange the delivery method of the goods in advance, which is inconvenient.

Disclosure of Invention

The application provides a logistics transportation timeliness forecasting method, a logistics transportation timeliness forecasting device, an electronic device and a storage medium, wherein the logistics transportation timeliness forecasting device is used for forecasting arrival time before goods are delivered.

In a first aspect, the present application provides a method for forecasting logistics transportation timeliness, which adopts the following technical scheme:

a logistics transportation aging forecasting method comprises the following steps:

the method comprises the steps of obtaining logistics distribution information, wherein the logistics distribution information comprises a delivery place, a receiving place and a logistics route, and the logistics route comprises at least one transfer station;

acquiring historical transit time corresponding to each transit station, wherein the historical transit time is the transit time of goods with the same receiving places and goods quantity in the transit stations, and each transit station corresponds to at least one historical transit time;

determining the predicted transfer time length corresponding to each transfer station according to all the historical transfer time lengths corresponding to each transfer station;

determining an estimated transportation time length according to the delivery place, the receiving place and the logistics route, wherein the estimated transportation time length is the time length of transportation between transfer stations of cities where the delivery place and the receiving place are located;

acquiring the estimated delivery time, and then determining the estimated distribution time according to the estimated delivery time, the estimated transportation time and all the estimated transfer time;

and determining the expected delivery time according to the expected distribution time and the obtained distribution arrangement of the city where the receiving place is located.

By adopting the technical scheme, after logistics distribution information input by enterprise users is acquired, the predicted transfer time of each transfer station is determined according to the historical transfer time corresponding to each transfer station, the predicted transportation time in the transportation process is determined according to the logistics route, the predicted distribution time is determined according to the predicted delivery time, the predicted transportation time and all the predicted transfer times, and the predicted delivery time is determined in advance according to distribution arrangement of a city where a receiving enterprise is located.

In one possible implementation manner, the determining an expected transportation time according to the delivery location, the receiving location, and the logistics route includes:

determining each transportation section between a delivery place and a transfer station of a city where a receiving place is located according to the logistics route;

acquiring a transport tool corresponding to each transport section, and acquiring historical transport time corresponding to each transport section according to the transport tool, wherein the historical transport time is used for transporting goods by using the transport tool in historical transport logistics;

each transportation section corresponds to at least one historical transportation time length;

determining the predicted transportation time length corresponding to each transportation section according to all the historical transportation time lengths corresponding to each transportation section;

and determining the predicted transportation time length for transportation between the delivery location and the transfer station where the receiving location is located according to the predicted transportation time lengths.

By adopting the technical scheme, according to the corresponding transport tool of each transport section, the corresponding historical transport time length in the corresponding transport section is obtained, and then the corresponding predicted transport time length of each transport section is determined, and further the predicted transport time length is determined; the difference of the estimated transportation time length generated when the transportation tools adopted by different transportation sections are different is reduced, and the accuracy of determining the estimated transportation time length is improved.

In one possible implementation, the obtaining the estimated delivery time includes:

when the logistics distribution information is acquired, acquiring the current position, the current state and the remaining loadable quantity of each logistics vehicle in the city where the delivery place is located;

taking the logistics vehicles with the residual loadable quantity more than or equal to the cargo quantity as standby logistics vehicles, and determining the waiting time corresponding to each standby logistics vehicle according to the current position of each standby logistics vehicle;

and determining a predicted delivery time according to all the waiting time lengths and the obtained current time, wherein the current time is the time of obtaining the logistics distribution information.

By adopting the technical scheme, the waiting time is also kept between the acquisition of the logistics distribution information and the delivery, and the estimated delivery time is determined according to the waiting time when each standby logistics vehicle in the city where the delivery place is located arrives at the delivery place and the current time in consideration of the waiting time, so that the accuracy of determining the estimated delivery time is improved.

In one possible implementation, the delivery schedule includes a delivery schedule and a delivery route;

wherein, the determining the scheduled delivery time according to the scheduled distribution time and the obtained distribution arrangement of the city where the receiving place is located includes:

determining a predicted distribution time according to the predicted distribution time and the distribution time scheduling table, wherein the predicted distribution time is a distribution time after the predicted distribution time in the distribution time scheduling table;

determining an expected delivery time length according to the delivery route;

and determining the expected delivery time according to the expected delivery time and the expected delivery duration.

By adopting the technical scheme, after the goods arrive at the transfer station of the city where the receiving place is located, the predicted delivery time is determined according to the local delivery time schedule, the predicted delivery time spent in the delivery process is determined according to the delivery route, and the predicted delivery time is determined by combining the predicted delivery time and the predicted delivery time, so that the accuracy of determining the predicted delivery time is improved.

In one possible implementation, the method further includes:

and if the emergency demand and the budget cost are acquired, determining a planned route according to the budget cost, and determining the predicted delivery time according to the planned route.

By adopting the technical scheme, if the enterprise user has an urgent need, the corresponding planning route of the quick delivery is determined according to the operation cost of the user, wherein the determination of the planning route is determined based on the budget cost, the estimated delivery time is determined according to the planning route, and the prediction of the estimated delivery time is carried out on the enterprise user with the urgent need according to the planning route of the quick delivery.

In one possible implementation, the determining a planned route according to the urgent need and the budget cost includes:

determining a transport means between the city of the delivery place and the city of the receiving place according to the budget cost;

and determining a planned route according to the transport means.

By adopting the technical scheme, when the planned route is determined, the transportation tool corresponding to the budget cost is determined according to the budget cost of the enterprise user, and then the planned route is determined, so that the influence of the budget cost is considered, and the convenience of the enterprise user is improved.

In one possible implementation, the determining the expected delivery time further includes:

before the goods arrive at the receiving place, acquiring the actual transit time of the goods at each transit station and the actual transportation time of the goods at each transportation section;

determining a delayed transfer station according to the actual transfer time and the predicted transfer time;

determining a delayed transportation section according to each actual transportation time length and each corresponding predicted transportation time length;

and if the obtained actual distribution time is later than the expected distribution time, feeding back the delay transfer station and the delay transportation section to a user.

By adopting the technical scheme, after the estimated delivery time is determined, the goods start to be transported, the time of delivery from the transfer station to the city where the receiving place is located is reached, namely the actual distribution time, when the actual distribution time is later than the estimated distribution time, the condition that the current goods transportation generates late is represented, and the delayed transfer station and the delayed transportation road section are fed back to enterprise users, so that the enterprise users know the late condition, and the use experience of the users is improved.

In a second aspect, the present application provides a logistics transportation timeliness forecasting apparatus, which adopts the following technical scheme:

a logistics transportation aging forecasting device comprises:

the information acquisition module is used for acquiring logistics distribution information, wherein the logistics distribution information comprises a delivery place, a receiving place and a logistics route, and the logistics route comprises at least one transfer station;

the transfer forecasting module is used for acquiring the historical transfer time length corresponding to each transfer station, the historical transfer time length is the time length for transferring the goods with the same receiving place and goods quantity in the transfer station, and each transfer station corresponds to at least one historical transfer time length;

the transfer prediction module is further configured to determine, according to all historical transfer durations corresponding to the transfer stations, predicted transfer durations corresponding to the transfer stations;

the transportation prediction module is used for determining a predicted transportation time length according to the delivery place, the receiving place and the logistics route, wherein the predicted transportation time length is the time length of transportation between transfer stations of cities where the delivery place and the receiving place are located;

the distribution forecasting module is used for acquiring a forecast delivery time and then determining a forecast distribution time according to the forecast delivery time, the forecast transportation time and all the forecast transfer time;

and the delivery prediction module is used for determining the predicted delivery time according to the predicted distribution time and the obtained distribution arrangement of the city where the receiving place is located.

By adopting the technical scheme, after the information acquisition module acquires logistics distribution information input by an enterprise user, the transfer prediction module determines predicted transfer time of each transfer station according to the historical transfer time corresponding to each transfer station, the transportation prediction module determines predicted transportation time in the transportation process according to the logistics route, the distribution prediction module determines predicted distribution time according to the predicted delivery time and the predicted transportation time and all the predicted transfer time, and the delivery prediction module determines the predicted delivery time in advance by combining with distribution arrangement of a city where a receiving enterprise is located, so that the predicted delivery time can be determined before product delivery, and the time consumed by transfer and the accuracy of the determined predicted delivery time are high after the distribution arrangement are considered.

In a possible implementation manner, the transportation prediction module, when determining the predicted transportation duration according to the delivery location, the receiving location, and the logistics route, is specifically configured to:

In a possible implementation manner, the distribution forecasting module, when obtaining the forecasted delivery time, is specifically configured to:

wherein, when determining the scheduled delivery time according to the scheduled distribution time and the obtained distribution arrangement of the city where the receiving place is located, the delivery scheduling module is specifically configured to:

determining an expected delivery time length according to the delivery route;

In one possible implementation, the apparatus further includes:

and the urgency determining module is used for determining a planned route according to the budget cost and determining the predicted delivery time according to the planned route if the urgency requirement and the budget cost are obtained.

In a possible implementation manner, the urgency module, when determining the planned route according to the urgency requirement and the budget cost, is specifically configured to:

determining a planned route according to the transport.

In one possible implementation, the apparatus further includes:

the transportation acquisition module is used for acquiring the actual transit time of the goods at each transit station and the actual transportation time of the goods at each transportation section before the goods arrive at the receiving place;

a delay determining module for determining a delay transfer station according to the actual transfer time and the predicted transfer time

The delay determining module is further used for determining a delay transportation road section according to each actual transportation time length and each corresponding predicted transportation time length;

and the delay feedback module is used for feeding back the delay transfer station and the delay transportation road section to a user if the obtained actual distribution time is later than the expected distribution time.

In a third aspect, the present application provides an electronic device, which adopts the following technical solutions:

an electronic device, comprising:

at least one processor;

a memory;

at least one application, wherein the at least one application is stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the at least one processor, the at least one application configured to: the method for forecasting the logistics transportation aging is carried out.

In a fourth aspect, the present application provides a computer-readable storage medium, which adopts the following technical solutions:

a computer-readable storage medium, comprising: a computer program capable of being loaded by a processor and executing the logistics transportation aging forecasting method is stored.

To sum up, the application comprises the following beneficial technical effects:

after logistics distribution information input by enterprise users is obtained, predicted transit time of each transit station is determined according to historical transit time corresponding to each transit station, then, according to a logistics route, predicted transit time in the transportation process is determined, then, according to predicted delivery time, predicted transit time and all predicted transit time, predicted distribution time is determined, and then, according to distribution arrangement of a city where a receiving enterprise is located, predicted delivery time is determined in advance, therefore, the predicted delivery time can be determined before product delivery, and the accuracy of the determined predicted delivery time is high in consideration of time consumed by transit and the determined predicted delivery time after the distribution arrangement.

After the estimated delivery time is determined, the goods start to be transported to the time when the goods arrive at the transfer station of the city where the receiving place is located and the goods are delivered out of the warehouse, namely the actual delivery time, when the actual delivery time is later than the estimated delivery time, the condition that the current goods transportation is late is represented, and at the moment, the delayed transfer station and the delayed transportation road section are fed back to enterprise users, so that the enterprise users can know the late condition, and the use experience of the users is improved.

Drawings

Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a logistics transportation aging forecasting method according to an embodiment of the present application;

FIG. 2 is a schematic flow chart illustrating the determination of the estimated transportation duration according to the embodiment of the present application;

FIG. 3 is a schematic flow chart of obtaining a scheduled delivery time according to an embodiment of the present application;

FIG. 4 is a schematic flow chart illustrating the determination of an estimated delivery time in an embodiment of the present application;

FIG. 5 is a schematic flow chart of the feedback of the reason for the late point in the embodiment of the present application;

FIG. 6 is a schematic block diagram of a logistics transportation aging forecasting device according to an embodiment of the present application;

fig. 7 is a schematic diagram of an electronic device according to an embodiment of the present application.

Detailed Description

The present application is described in further detail below with reference to figures 1-7.

In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present application clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present application, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are some embodiments of the present application, but not all embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present application.

In the supply chain, after a product is produced by a manufacturer, the product needs to be distributed to each distribution enterprise, and then the product needs to be distributed to each retail enterprise by the distribution enterprise, but often, one manufacturer bears the product supply of a plurality of distribution enterprises, and one distribution enterprise bears the product supply of at least one retail enterprise. Within the supply chain, the way upstream businesses distribute products to downstream businesses is typically: the downstream enterprise sends out a distribution demand which comprises a distribution quantity, expected distribution time and the position of a distribution destination, the logistics company takes the distribution task, and when the distribution demand sent out by the downstream enterprise is received, the product is transported to the downstream enterprise from the upstream enterprise. The logistics company opens a logistics platform to each enterprise, the enterprises issue distribution demands in the logistics platform, and the logistics company transports products or goods according to the distribution demands in the logistics platform.

The upstream enterprise and the downstream enterprise may be located in the same city, or may be located in different cities, each city is used as a site, and the transportation is performed between two sites by a plurality of transportation tools, and the transportation tools undertake all transportation tasks between the two sites, and transport products between the sites together, that is, one transportation tool undertakes not only a transportation task corresponding to one distribution demand, but also transportation tasks corresponding to other distribution demands, for example: the enterprise A and the enterprise B send distribution demands, products required by the enterprise A and the enterprise B pass through two cities of a site z1 and a site z2 in the transportation process, the products required by the two enterprises are transported to the site z2 from the site z1 through the same transportation tool, and the products of the two enterprises are sorted and transported after arriving at the site z 2.

The embodiment of the application provides a logistics transportation timeliness forecasting method, which is executed by electronic equipment corresponding to a logistics transportation company, and with reference to fig. 1, the method includes:

and step S101, acquiring logistics distribution information.

The logistics distribution information comprises a delivery place, a receiving place and a logistics route, and the logistics route comprises at least one transfer station.

The receiving place is the position of the enterprise sending the distribution demand; the delivery location is the location of the business that sent the goods to the receiving location; the logistics route is a route through which goods are transported from a delivery place to a receiving place; the transfer station is a station for distributing goods after being concentrated according to areas on a logistics route.

Specifically, when a downstream enterprise sends a delivery demand, logistics delivery information is input on a platform, and the logistics delivery information comprises a delivery place, a receiving place and a logistics route, wherein the downstream enterprise sending the delivery demand is the receiving enterprise, and the position of the downstream enterprise is the receiving place; the downstream enterprise corresponds to at least one upstream enterprise supplying goods to the downstream enterprise, if the downstream enterprise is one, the corresponding upstream enterprise is a delivery enterprise, and the position of the delivery enterprise is a delivery place; if the downstream enterprise corresponds to at least two upstream enterprises for supplying, the downstream enterprise may select one of the upstream enterprises as a shipping enterprise, and the location of the selected upstream enterprise is the shipping location.

When the electronic equipment sends a distribution demand to a downstream enterprise, the electronic equipment automatically acquires a receiving place and a delivery place of goods transportation, and after the logistics are sent by the delivery place, the logistics are sorted and distributed through transfer stations of various cities, transported among the transfer stations and finally arrive at the receiving place. For example, the following steps are carried out: the delivery place is a specific position in the Haihai district of Beijing, and the receiving place is a specific position in the southern open district of Tianjin; after goods are delivered in Beijing Haisheng district, the goods firstly enter a transfer station in Beijing City for transfer, the goods are sorted according to regions, the goods sent to Tianjin City are collected together and then are delivered out of the warehouse, all the goods sent to Tianjin from Beijing are collected by corresponding transport means and sent to Tianjin to arrive at the transfer station in Tianjin, the goods are sorted in the transfer station in Tianjin, all the goods arriving at Tianjin are separated according to the respective corresponding regions, and after being delivered out of the warehouse, the goods are delivered according to the delivery conditions of various regions.

Determining a logistics route according to the receiving place and the delivery place; the delivery place is the starting point of the logistics route, the receiving place is the terminal point of the logistics route, and the transfer station is an intermediate station positioned between the starting point and the terminal point in the logistics route, wherein the intermediate station is a point for transferring goods. The transportation is performed between the delivery site and the transfer station by using a transportation means.

Step S102, obtaining the historical transit time corresponding to each transit station, and determining the predicted transit time corresponding to each transit station according to all the historical transit time corresponding to each transit station.

The historical transit time length is the transit time length of goods with the same receiving place and goods quantity in the transit station, and each transit station corresponds to at least one historical transit time length; the transfer time is the time between the arrival of the goods at the transfer station and the delivery of the goods.

Specifically, when the goods arrive in the transfer station, the goods are put in storage firstly, sorted in the storage, and then taken out of the storage after being sorted according to the corresponding regions, the goods after being sorted are loaded in the storage, and after being loaded in the storage, the goods are transported or delivered according to the arrangement of vehicles. The transfer time is the time from the goods arriving at the transfer station to the completion of the sorting.

In order to predict the transit time of the goods in each transit station and reduce the probability of larger time length prediction deviation caused by neglecting transit errors, the transit time length of the goods in the transit stations needs to be predicted.

The logistics distribution information also comprises the quantity of goods, the transit time of different quantities of goods in the transit station can be different, and for logistics batches with a large quantity of goods, as the quantity of goods in the transit station needs to be sorted, the transit time of the goods of the logistics batches in the transit station is longer than that of logistics batches with a small quantity of goods; therefore, when the predicted transfer time length is determined, the historical transfer time length spent in the transfer station when the logistics batches with the same quantity of goods are transferred in the historical logistics transfer process in the transfer station is obtained; for a transfer station, a plurality of logistics batches with the same quantity of goods may be provided, each logistics batch corresponds to a historical transfer time length, that is, a transfer station corresponds to at least one historical transfer time length, and a predicted transfer time length corresponding to the transfer station can be determined according to all the historical transfer time lengths corresponding to the transfer station, in an achievable manner, the manner of determining the predicted transfer time length may be: determining a logistics batch closest to the current moment in all logistics batches with the same quantity of goods; and taking the historical transit time corresponding to the logistics batch closest to the current time as the predicted transit time. In another implementation, the manner of determining the predicted transit time period may be: and determining all logistics batches with the same quantity of goods in a preset time range and calculating the average value of the corresponding historical transit time lengths, wherein the average value is the predicted transit time length. Wherein, the preset time range is a preset duration range, for example: during the period of one week before the current time.

And determining the predicted transfer time length in each transfer station by the same means, namely determining each predicted transfer time length from the time when the goods enter the transfer station to the time when the goods are sorted and leave the warehouse for waiting for transportation in each transfer station.

And S103, determining the expected transportation time according to the delivery place, the receiving place and the logistics route.

Wherein the expected transportation time length is the time length of transportation between transfer stations of a city where the delivery place is located and the receiving place is located.

Specifically, the time length of the delivery of the goods from the delivery location to the delivery location includes the time length consumed for the transfer at the transfer station, i.e., the transfer time length, and the time length of the transportation of the goods in each transportation section between the transfer stations and between the transfer station and the delivery location, i.e., the transportation time length, and therefore, in order to predict the arrival time of the final goods, the transportation time length needs to be predicted.

For convenience of understanding, the goods are sequentially sent from a delivery place, a transfer station 1, a transfer station 2, a transfer station 3 and a receiving place, wherein the transfer station 1 is a transfer station of a city where the delivery place is located, and the transfer station 3 is a transfer station of a city where the receiving place is located; the predicted transfer time lengths at the transfer station 1, the transfer station 2 and the transfer station 3, i.e. the predicted time lengths between the arrival and the departure of the goods at the transfer station, have been determined according to step S102.

The estimated transportation time is the sum of the transportation time of the goods from the delivery location to the arrival transfer station 1, from the transfer station 1 to the arrival transfer station 2 after being taken out of the warehouse, and from the transfer station 2 to the arrival transfer station 3.

And step S104, acquiring the expected delivery time, and then determining the expected distribution time according to the expected delivery time, the expected transportation time and all the expected transit time.

The estimated distribution time represents the time when the goods are delivered out of the warehouse after the goods are sorted at a transfer station of a city where the receiving place is located; the estimated delivery time is the estimated delivery time determined when the user makes a delivery demand.

Specifically, after the delivery company sends the delivery demand, there is a possibility that the delivery company waits for the logistics vehicle to arrive at the corresponding delivery company and complete loading, and under such a possibility, if the time waiting for delivery is not considered, the expected delivery time is predicted, and there will be an error, and if the time waiting for delivery is longer, the error is larger, so that the error of the predicted time of arrival at the receiving place needs to be reduced in consideration of the time of specific delivery of the goods, and therefore the electronic device acquires the expected delivery time from the internal memory, that is, acquires the time at which the expected goods can be specifically delivered.

Calculating the sum of all the estimated transit time lengths and the estimated transportation time lengths as the estimated transit time lengths, starting with the estimated shipment time and taking the time after the estimated transit time length as the estimated distribution time, and continuing to explain by taking the example in step S103 as an example: the predicted transit time corresponding to the transit station 1 is 1h, the predicted transit time corresponding to the transit station 2 is 2h, the predicted transit time corresponding to the transit station 3 is 1h, the predicted delivery time is 1 month, 1 morning and 10:00 am, the predicted transportation time is 48h, the predicted transit time is 52h (1 h +2h +1h +48 h), and the predicted distribution time is 1 month, 3 days, and 14:00 am. I.e. characterized by 14 pm on day 3 of month 1: 00, the goods arrive at the transfer station 3, finish the delivery in the transfer station 3, and wait for the delivery to the receiving place.

And S105, determining the expected delivery time according to the expected delivery time and the obtained distribution arrangement of the city where the receiving place is located.

Wherein the estimated delivery time is the time when the estimated goods arrive at the position of the receiving place.

Specifically, after the goods arrive at the transfer station in the city where the receiving place is located, the goods are delivered in a manner that the goods are delivered from the transfer station in sequence according to a preset delivery sequence according to each enterprise or store in the city.

The delivery schedule includes a preset delivery sequence and a preset delivery route. After the goods are delivered out of the warehouse, the estimated delivery sequence to the receiving place can be determined according to the delivery sequence and the delivery route, and then the time of arriving at the receiving place is determined according to the route, namely the estimated delivery time is determined.

The embodiment of the application provides a logistics transportation timeliness forecasting method, after logistics distribution information input by enterprise users is obtained, predicted transit time of each transit station is determined according to historical transit time corresponding to each transit station, then, according to a logistics route, predicted transportation time in a transportation process is determined, then, predicted distribution time is determined according to predicted delivery time, predicted transportation time and all predicted transit time, and then, in combination with distribution arrangement of a city where a receiving enterprise is located, predicted delivery time is determined in advance, therefore, the predicted delivery time can be determined before product delivery, and time consumed by transit and the accuracy of the determined predicted delivery time are considered to be high.

Referring to fig. 2, in step S103, a possible implementation manner of the embodiment of the present application, determining an expected transportation time according to a delivery location, a receiving location, and a logistics route includes:

and step S1031, determining each transportation section between the delivery place and the transfer station of the city where the receiving place is located according to the logistics route.

And S1032, acquiring the transportation tools corresponding to the transportation sections respectively, and acquiring the historical transportation time lengths corresponding to the transportation sections respectively according to the transportation tools.

Wherein the historical transportation time length is the time length for transporting the goods by using a transportation tool in the historical transportation logistics; each transport section corresponds to at least one historical transport time period.

Step S1033, determining the predicted transportation time length corresponding to each transportation road section according to all the historical transportation time lengths corresponding to each transportation road section.

Step S1034, according to the predicted transportation time lengths, the predicted transportation time length of the transportation between the delivery location and the transfer station where the receiving location is located is determined.

Specifically, transportation of goods by means of corresponding transportation means is required between the transfer station and the transfer station, and between the transfer station and the delivery location, that is, in each transportation section. Firstly, the transportation time of each transportation section needs to be predicted to obtain the predicted transportation time; and adding the predicted transportation time lengths to obtain the predicted transportation time length.

Taking the example in step S102 as an example to explain further, three transportation sections are respectively provided between the shipping place and the transfer station 1, between the transfer station 1 and the transfer station 2, and between the transfer station 2 and the transfer station 3, where transportation of the goods from the shipping place to the transfer station 1 is a first transportation section, a transportation time length in the first transportation section is a first predicted transportation time length, and a time length from the post-warehousing of the transfer station 1 to the ex-warehouse of the transfer station 1 is a first transfer time length; the time length from the start of transportation to the transfer station 2 to the arrival of the transfer station 2 after the delivery is a second transportation section is a second predicted transportation time length, and the time length from the storage to the delivery in the transfer station 2 is a second transfer time length; the time length from the delivery of the goods from the transfer station 2 to the arrival at the transfer station 3 is a third transportation section, the third predicted transportation time length is the time length, and the time length from the delivery of the goods to the delivery of the goods from the transfer station 3 is the third transfer time length.

When the electronic device plans the logistics route after determining the receiving place and the delivery place, the transportation tools of each transportation section on the logistics route are determined at the same time, for example, the transportation tool of the first transportation section is preset as a truck, the transportation tool of the second transportation section is preset as a ship, and the transportation tool of the third transportation section is preset as an airplane for air transportation.

When each predicted transportation time length is determined, according to the transportation tool corresponding to each transportation section, historical time lengths in logistics of the same transportation tool are adopted in historical data stored in the internal storage of the historical data of the transportation section, wherein if the historical time lengths are multiple, the average value of all the corresponding historical time lengths is calculated to serve as the historical transportation time length; if the historical time length is one, the historical time length is the historical transportation time length. The historical transportation time length represents the time length corresponding to the corresponding transportation tool in the transportation section, and the numerical value of the predicted transportation time length is equal to the value of the historical transportation time length.

And adding the predicted transportation time lengths to obtain the predicted transportation time length. And predicting the transportation time according to the historical transportation time of each transportation road section, so that the accuracy of predicting the transportation time is improved.

In one possible implementation manner of the embodiment of the present application, referring to fig. 3, in step S104, acquiring a scheduled shipment time includes:

step S1041, when the logistics distribution information is acquired, acquiring the current position, the current state and the remaining loadable quantity of each logistics vehicle in the city where the delivery place is located;

step S1042, taking the logistics vehicles with the residual loadable quantity greater than or equal to the quantity of the cargos as standby logistics vehicles, and determining the waiting time corresponding to each standby logistics vehicle according to the current position of each standby logistics vehicle;

and S1043, determining the estimated delivery time according to all the waiting time lengths and the acquired current time.

And the current moment is the moment when the logistics distribution information is acquired.

Specifically, the delivery time is not the same as the time when the delivery demand is sent by the enterprise user, and the logistics vehicle needs to wait for arriving at the delivery place. Therefore, in order to improve the accuracy of the prediction, the estimated delivery time is first predicted.

The current state of each logistics vehicle, the current position of each logistics vehicle and the corresponding remaining loadable amount are stored in the electronic equipment and are updated in real time, the current state represents the state of the logistics vehicle, and comprises a waiting state, a transportation state and a loading and unloading state, the waiting state is the state that the logistics vehicle is not working, the transportation state is the state that the logistics vehicle carries out logistics transportation in the transportation process, and the loading and unloading state is the state that the logistics vehicle is carrying out cargo loading and unloading. The current position represents the actual position of the logistics vehicle; the remaining loadable quantity represents the quantity of goods that the logistics vehicle can currently accommodate.

And the logistics vehicles with the remaining loading capacity being larger than or equal to the number of the cargos are logistics vehicles capable of accommodating the current number of the cargos, and the logistics vehicles are used as standby logistics vehicles.

Determining the distance between the current position of each standby logistics vehicle and a delivery place according to the current position of each standby logistics vehicle, determining the waiting time corresponding to each standby logistics vehicle according to each distance, wherein the waiting time is the time taken by the standby logistics vehicles to reach the delivery place, and represents the time required to wait for delivery. The current moment is the moment when the logistics distribution information input by the enterprise user is obtained, and the expected delivery moment can be determined after the current moment and the waiting duration.

Specifically, after each waiting time length is determined, the longest waiting time length of all the waiting time lengths is determined, and after the current time, the time after the longest waiting time length is used as the estimated delivery time.

In a possible implementation manner of the embodiment of the present application, the distribution schedule includes a distribution schedule and a distribution route, referring to fig. 4, in step S105, determining the expected delivery time according to the expected distribution time and the obtained distribution schedule of the city where the receiving place is located, including:

and step S1051, determining the expected distribution time according to the expected distribution time and the distribution time scheduling table.

Wherein the predicted delivery time is a delivery time after the predicted delivery time in the delivery time schedule.

Step S1052 determines an expected delivery time length according to the delivery route.

And step S1053, determining the estimated delivery time according to the estimated delivery time and the estimated delivery duration.

Specifically, after the goods are delivered from the warehouse, it is often necessary to wait for a period of time in a transfer station in a city where the receiving site is located, in the transfer station, when the goods are delivered from the warehouse and wait for centralized distribution, the goods can be distributed, and when the waiting time is long, a large error will be generated in the predicted time. It is therefore necessary to combine the expected delivery time with the delivery schedule of the current city to determine the expected delivery time. The daily delivery in the transfer station is a timed batch delivery mode, the delivery time of each batch is delivered according to a delivery time schedule, the delivery time schedule is stored in the electronic equipment in advance, and the estimated delivery time of the goods can be determined by combining the delivery time schedule with the estimated delivery time obtained through prediction. For example: the distribution schedule corresponding to the city a is 8 am, 10 am, 2 pm and 4 pm, namely, the distribution of goods is respectively carried out at 8 am, 10 am, two pm and four pm, namely, the goods taken out of the warehouse are finished at 9 am, the distribution can not be carried out at 8 am, and the distribution is carried out at 10 am generally, so the distribution time is expected to be 10 am of the day; and the goods which are delivered from the warehouse after 6 am of the same day are delivered at 8 am of the next day, namely the delivery time is expected to be 8 am of the next day.

The delivery route is a delivery route which is planned in advance according to all delivery places in the city in sequence according to a preset sequence, a plurality of fixed delivery places are set in a city where a receiving place is located, the delivery sequence of each delivery place is preset, each delivery place is delivered in sequence according to the preset delivery sequence during delivery, and during delivery, a delivery route is set, and the delivery routes connect the delivery places in sequence, so that the delivery routes sequentially arrive at the delivery places according to the fixed delivery routes and are delivered. For example, the following steps are carried out: in city a, there are a delivery point a1, a delivery point a2, a delivery point A3 and a delivery point a4, the delivery will be dispatched in order from the delivery point a1 to the delivery point a4, the dispatch route is a preset delivery route, if the delivery point A3 is a receiving place, the current delivery goods will follow other goods, the delivery is completed by the transfer station to the delivery point a1, the delivery point a1 travels to the delivery point a2 for delivery, the delivery point a2 travels to the delivery point A3, that is, to the receiving place, and the delivery of the goods is completed finally.

And determining the distance from the transfer station to the receiving place according to the distribution route, and determining the time spent by the goods during distribution according to the distance, namely determining the expected distribution time. Specifically, in an implementation manner, the average delivery speed of the vehicle may be obtained, and the predicted delivery time length may be determined according to the distance and the average speed.

The estimated delivery time can be determined according to the estimated delivery time and the estimated delivery time, for example, the estimated delivery time is 10 am, the estimated delivery time is 45min, and the estimated delivery time is 10:45 am.

In a possible implementation manner of the embodiment of the present application, the method further includes:

and if the urgent demand and the budget cost are acquired, determining a planned route according to the budget cost, and determining the predicted delivery time according to the planned route.

Specifically, because need carry out the transfer through the transfer station in the distribution process, will consume for a certain time in the past on the way to the transfer station, also will cause long waste at each transfer station, after arriving the city of receiving place, wait for the delivery also to consume the certain time, when the enterprise needs the rapid transit, can select to put forward, electronic equipment acquires the urgent demand of enterprise user input, the goods will directly arrange the special car and carry out point-to-point's dispatch this moment, directly send to the receiving place by the delivery place, and need not carry out the transfer through the transfer station in each city, and then realize the transportation of putting forward with urgent, in order to improve user's convenience.

The urgent transportation needs to arrange a special transportation vehicle for transportation, the transportation cost is increased, and in addition, the selection of the transportation vehicle generally influences the transportation speed, such as: the transport time of air transportation is shorter than that of air transportation and shorter than that of land transportation, and the corresponding transport cost of air transportation is higher than that of air transportation. Therefore, corresponding charging is different for customers with different urgent demands; therefore, it is further required to match a suitable planned route for the enterprise user in combination with the budget cost of the enterprise user, and determine that the transportation cost corresponding to the good planned route is less than or equal to the user budget cost.

When the enterprise user is transported with urgent needs, the estimated delivery time needs to be determined according to the determined planning route, in an implementation mode, the time length used by the transportation task which is the same as the planning route in the historical logistics transportation tasks can be obtained to determine, and the estimated delivery time is the time after the time length used at the current time.

A possible implementation manner of the embodiment of the present application, determining a planned route according to an urgent need and a budget cost, includes:

determining a transport means between a city where the delivery place is located and a city where the receiving place is located according to the budget cost; a planned route is determined from the vehicle.

Specifically, since different transportation means correspond to different transportation costs, the transportation means of the city between the receiving place and the delivery place is determined according to the budget cost of the enterprise user, for example: the receiving place is in Shenzhen, the delivery place is in Beijing, various transportation tools such as train transportation, air transportation and automobile can be adopted for transportation between the Beijing and the Shenzhen, and if the budget cost of an enterprise user can support the transportation of two transportation tools of train transportation and automobile transportation, a faster transportation tool is selected by default, namely the train is selected as the transportation tool. If the budget cost of the enterprise user can support three transportation modes of train transportation, automobile transportation and air transportation, the plane is selected as a transportation tool.

After the transport means are selected, a planned route can be determined according to the transport means, corresponding transport routes are planned in advance for different transport means, and the transport routes are all routes from a delivery place to a receiving place. The planned route can be determined according to the selected transport means.

Referring to fig. 5, a possible implementation manner of the embodiment of the present application further includes, after step S105:

step Sa1 obtains the actual transit time length of the cargo at each transit station and the actual transportation time length at each transportation section before the cargo arrives at the receiving place.

And step Sa2, determining the delayed transfer station according to the actual transfer time and the predicted transfer time.

And step Sa3, determining a delayed transportation section according to each actual transportation time length and each corresponding predicted transportation time length.

And step Sa4, if the obtained actual distribution time is later than the expected distribution time, feeding back the delayed transfer station and the delayed transportation road section to the user.

The delayed transfer station is a transfer station of which the actual transfer time length is greater than the predicted transfer time length and the difference value between the actual transfer time length and the predicted transfer time length exceeds a preset first threshold value; the delayed transportation section is a transportation section of which the actual transportation time length exceeds the predicted transportation time length and the difference value is larger than a preset second threshold value in all transportation sections.

Specifically, the actual transfer duration is the duration for actually transferring the goods in the corresponding transfer station, the actual transportation duration is the duration for actually transporting the goods in the corresponding transportation section, and when the actual transfer duration exceeds the expected transfer duration and exceeds the first threshold, the transfer duration of the current goods in the transfer station is represented to be too long, so that the transfer station is in an abnormal state. When the actual transportation time exceeds the predicted transportation time and exceeds the second threshold, the transportation time of the goods in the current transportation section is represented to be too long, and the possibility of abnormity exists.

The actual distribution time is the time when goods actually arrive at a transfer station of a city where a receiving place is located and then are delivered out of a warehouse, when the actual distribution time is later than the expected distribution time, the probability that the current goods are late is represented, in order to improve the experience of enterprise users, when the late probability exists, the reason of the late is fed back to the users in advance before delivery, all delayed transfer stations and all delayed transportation road sections are fed back to the users, so that the users know the condition of the specific late, and the experience degree of the users is improved.

The above embodiment introduces a method for forecasting logistics transportation aging from the perspective of a method flow, and the following embodiment introduces a device for forecasting logistics transportation aging from the perspective of a virtual module or a virtual unit, which is described in detail in the following embodiment.

Referring to fig. 6, a logistics transportation aging forecasting apparatus 100 includes:

the information acquisition module 1001 acquires logistics distribution information, wherein the logistics distribution information includes a delivery location, a receiving location and a logistics route, and the logistics route includes at least one transfer station;

the transfer forecasting module 1002 is configured to obtain historical transfer time lengths corresponding to the transfer stations, where the historical transfer time lengths are time lengths for transferring goods with the same receiving location and the same quantity in the transfer station, and each transfer station corresponds to at least one historical transfer time length;

the transfer prediction module 1002 is further configured to determine, according to all historical transfer durations corresponding to each transfer station, a predicted transfer duration corresponding to each transfer station;

a transportation prediction module 1003, configured to determine a predicted transportation time according to the delivery location, the receiving location, and the logistics route, where the predicted transportation time is a time of transportation between transit stations in a city where the delivery location and the receiving location are located;

the distribution forecasting module 1004 is configured to obtain a forecasted delivery time, and then determine a forecasted distribution time according to the forecasted delivery time, the forecasted transportation time, and all the forecasted transit times;

a delivery prediction module 1005, configured to determine a predicted delivery time according to the predicted distribution time and the obtained distribution schedule of the city where the receiving place is located.

Specifically, after the information obtaining module 1001 obtains logistics distribution information input by an enterprise user, the transit predicting module 1002 determines a predicted transit time of each transit station according to a history transit time corresponding to each transit station, the transportation predicting module 1003 determines a predicted transportation time in a transportation process according to a logistics route, the distribution predicting module 1004 determines a predicted distribution time according to a predicted delivery time and a predicted transportation time and all predicted transit times, and the delivery predicting module 1005 determines a predicted delivery time in advance by combining with a distribution arrangement of a city where a receiving enterprise is located, so that the predicted delivery time can be determined before product delivery, and the accuracy of the determined predicted delivery time is high by considering a time consumed by transit and the distribution arrangement.

In a possible implementation manner of the embodiment of the present application, the transportation prediction module 1003 is specifically configured to, when determining the predicted transportation time length according to the delivery location, the receiving location, and the logistics route:

acquiring a transport tool corresponding to each transport section, and acquiring historical transport time corresponding to each transport section according to the transport tool, wherein the historical transport time is the time for transporting goods by using the transport tool in historical transport logistics;

and determining the predicted transportation time length corresponding to each transportation section according to all the historical transportation time lengths corresponding to each transportation section.

In one possible implementation, the distribution forecasting module 1004, when obtaining the forecasted delivery time, is specifically configured to:

taking the logistics vehicles with the residual loadable quantity more than or equal to the quantity of the cargos as standby logistics vehicles, and determining the waiting time length corresponding to each standby logistics vehicle according to the current position of each standby logistics vehicle;

and determining the estimated delivery time according to all the waiting time lengths and the obtained current time, wherein the current time is the time of obtaining the logistics distribution information.

the delivery prediction module 1005 is specifically configured to, when determining the predicted delivery time according to the predicted distribution time and the obtained distribution arrangement of the city where the receiving place is located:

determining a predicted distribution time according to the predicted distribution time and a distribution time scheduling table, wherein the predicted distribution time is the distribution time after the predicted distribution time in the distribution time scheduling table;

determining an expected delivery time length according to the delivery route;

and determining the predicted delivery time according to the predicted delivery time and the predicted delivery duration.

In one possible implementation, the apparatus 100 further includes:

determining a transport means between a city where the delivery place is located and a city where the receiving place is located according to the budget cost;

a planned route is determined from the vehicle.

In one possible implementation, the apparatus 100 further includes:

a delay determining module for determining the delay transfer station according to the actual transfer time and the predicted transfer time

The delay determining module is also used for determining a delay transportation road section according to each actual transportation time length and each corresponding predicted transportation time length;

and the delay feedback module is used for feeding back the delay transfer station and the delay transportation road section to the user if the obtained actual distribution time is later than the expected distribution time.

It is clear to those skilled in the art that, for convenience and brevity of description, the specific working processes of the above-described systems, apparatuses and units may refer to the corresponding processes in the foregoing method embodiments, and are not described herein again.

The embodiment of the present application also introduces an electronic device from the perspective of a physical apparatus, as shown in fig. 7, an electronic device 1100 shown in fig. 7 includes: a processor 1101 and a memory 1103. The processor 1101 is coupled to the memory 1103, such as by a bus 1102. Optionally, the electronic device 1100 may also include a transceiver 1104. It should be noted that the transceiver 1104 is not limited to one in practical applications, and the structure of the electronic device 1100 is not limited to the embodiment of the present application.

The Processor 1101 may be a CPU (Central Processing Unit), a general purpose Processor, a DSP (Digital Signal Processor), an ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit), an FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array) or other Programmable logic device, a transistor logic device, a hardware component, or any combination thereof. Which may implement or perform the various illustrative logical blocks, modules, and circuits described in connection with the disclosure. The processor 1101 may also be a combination of computing functions, e.g., comprising one or more microprocessors, DSPs and microprocessors, and the like.

Bus 1102 may include a path that transfers information between the above components. The bus 1102 may be a PCI (Peripheral Component Interconnect) bus, an EISA (Extended Industry Standard Architecture) bus, or the like. The bus 1102 may be divided into an address bus, a data bus, a control bus, and the like. For ease of illustration, only one thick line is shown in FIG. 7, but this is not intended to represent only one bus or type of bus.

The Memory 1103 may be a ROM (Read Only Memory) or other type of static storage device that can store static information and instructions, a RAM (Random Access Memory) or other type of dynamic storage device that can store information and instructions, an EEPROM (Electrically Erasable Programmable Read Only Memory), a CD-ROM (Compact Disc Read Only Memory) or other optical Disc storage, optical Disc storage (including Compact Disc, laser Disc, optical Disc, digital versatile Disc, blu-ray Disc, etc.), a magnetic disk storage medium or other magnetic storage device, or any other medium that can be used to carry or store desired program code in the form of instructions or data structures and that can be accessed by a computer, but is not limited to these.

The memory 1103 is used for storing application program codes for executing the present application, and the execution is controlled by the processor 1101. The processor 1101 is configured to execute application program code stored in the memory 1103 to implement the content shown in the foregoing method embodiments.

Among them, electronic devices include but are not limited to: mobile terminals such as mobile phones, notebook computers, digital broadcast receivers, PDAs (personal digital assistants), PADs (tablet computers), PMPs (portable multimedia players), in-vehicle terminals (e.g., in-vehicle navigation terminals), and the like, and fixed terminals such as digital TVs, desktop computers, and the like. But also a server, etc. The electronic device shown in fig. 7 is only an example, and should not bring any limitation to the functions and the scope of use of the embodiments of the present application.

It should be understood that, although the steps in the flowcharts of the figures are shown in order as indicated by the arrows, the steps are not necessarily performed in order as indicated by the arrows. The steps are not performed in the exact order shown and may be performed in other orders unless explicitly stated herein. Moreover, at least a portion of the steps in the flow chart of the figure may include multiple sub-steps or multiple stages, which are not necessarily performed at the same time, but may be performed at different times, which are not necessarily performed in sequence, but may be performed alternately or alternately with other steps or at least a portion of the sub-steps or stages of other steps.

The foregoing is only a partial embodiment of the present application, and it should be noted that, for those skilled in the art, various modifications and decorations can be made without departing from the principle of the present application, and these modifications and decorations should also be regarded as the protection scope of the present application.

Claims

1. A logistics transportation aging forecasting method is characterized by comprising the following steps:

2. The method of claim 1, wherein determining an expected transit time based on the delivery location, the receiving location, and the logistics route comprises:

determining each transportation road section from the delivery place to a transfer station of a city where the receiving place is located according to the logistics route;

3. The method of claim 1, wherein obtaining the intended delivery time comprises:

4. The method of any of claims 1-3, wherein the delivery schedule comprises a delivery schedule and a delivery route;

determining an expected delivery time length according to the delivery route;

5. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

6. The method of claim 5, wherein determining a planned route based on the urgent need and the budget cost comprises:

and determining a planned route according to the transport means.

7. The method of claim 1, wherein determining after the expected delivery time further comprises:

8. A logistics transportation aging forecasting device is characterized by comprising:

9. An electronic device, comprising:

at least one processor;

a memory;

at least one application, wherein the at least one application is stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the at least one processor, the at least one application configured to: the logistics transportation aging forecasting method of any one of claims 1 to 7 is carried out.

10. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, wherein when the computer program is executed in a computer, the computer is caused to execute the logistics transportation aging forecasting method according to any one of claims 1 to 7.