CN114819495A - Electricity selling company diffusion system based on new energy investment lease - Google Patents

Electricity selling company diffusion system based on new energy investment lease Download PDF

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CN114819495A
CN114819495A CN202210272445.XA CN202210272445A CN114819495A CN 114819495 A CN114819495 A CN 114819495A CN 202210272445 A CN202210272445 A CN 202210272445A CN 114819495 A CN114819495 A CN 114819495A
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窦迅
周家哲
罗海峰
刘强
金骆松
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Zhejiang Electric Power Trade Center Co ltd
State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co Ltd
Nanjing Tech University
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State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co Ltd
Nanjing Tech University
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Abstract

The invention provides an electric power selling company diffusion system based on new energy investment lease, which comprises a dynamic diffusion model, a cost model and a profit model of the electric power selling company system, wherein the diffusion model is obtained based on the cost model and the profit model, so that effective data support is provided for expansion of the electric power selling company. The invention fully utilizes the dispersed wind power and the roof photovoltaic resources to form a new energy investment lease business mode, defines the diffusion basis of the electricity selling company, the operation and maintenance of the internal new energy and the discount cost of the electricity selling company in the advanced new business mode, and the influence factors of external middle and long term and extra electricity purchasing, and can maintain the cost at 30 percent of the original cost in the middle and later periods. The building income of new energy power generation, government subsidy income, peak shaving income participated by residual electric quantity, electricity selling income and the like obtained by the electricity selling company through implementing a new business mode in a user can be combed through the income model, and the daily income of the electricity selling company can be improved to 10 times of the original income in the middle and later periods.

Description

Electricity selling company diffusion system based on new energy investment lease
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of electric power, and particularly relates to an electric power selling company diffusion system based on new energy investment lease.
Background
The opinion on promoting reform of electricity selling side requires to further introduce competition in the electricity selling link, open electricity selling business to social capital, expand the user option range, cultivate electricity selling main bodies in multiple ways and form a competitive pattern of buying electricity and selling electricity for multiple families. Meanwhile, the power selling side releases the mode of the conventional general purchasing and selling, and the power of freely selecting the power selling main body is given to the user.
At present, after social capital enters an electricity selling side market, the social capital actively participates in electricity selling side competition, power transmission and distribution price reformation and power demand side management, and more electricity selling main bodies participate in electricity retail market competition. At present, the existing power selling companies supply power to users in the region by buying medium and long-term electric quantity to the outside, the main profit mode still depends on the poor selling price, the transportation cost is large, the profit is small, and the business mode cannot meet the multiple requirements of different main power selling companies and retail users. For users, roof photovoltaic resources and dispersed wind power resources are not utilized resources, personal development cost is high, time and energy consumption of users is high, and enthusiasm is weak.
Aiming at the situations that the traditional profit mode of the power selling company is backward and potential resources of users are wasted, a novel business mode adapting to green development and a corresponding diffusion analysis model are urgently needed to be provided, data support is provided for expansion of the power selling company, the direction of the power selling company to provide clean green energy for retail users is promoted to be changed, and the enthusiasm of the power selling company for improving the energy efficiency level, participating in market transaction, innovating an operation mechanism and improving the service quality is stimulated.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects in the prior art, the invention provides the electric power selling company diffusion system based on new energy investment lease, two new energy resources, namely dispersed wind power and roof photovoltaic, are fully utilized, a new energy investment lease business mode is formed, potential green power generation resources at a user side are mined, a diffusion model is obtained based on a cost and income model, and effective data support is provided for expansion of electric power selling companies.
The present invention achieves the above-described object by the following technical means.
A new energy investment lease-based electric power selling company diffusion system comprises an electric power selling company system dynamic cost model, an electric power selling company system dynamic income model and an electric power selling company system dynamic diffusion model; the power selling company system dynamics cost model comprises the initial cost of the power selling company, the average electricity purchasing cost per hour in the day, the extra electricity purchasing cost per hour, the roof photovoltaic operation and maintenance cost, the scattered wind power operation and maintenance cost, the peak load regulation cost of the energy storage power station and the discount cost of users per hour; the dynamic income model of the power selling company system comprises initial income of the power selling company, new energy construction income, clean energy subsidy every time and income every time of participating peak shaving.
Further, in the power selling company system dynamics cost model, the actual electricity consumption demand of the user at each time is the difference between the actual electricity consumption and the new energy power generation amount, the required values are accumulated for 24 hours, and the average electricity purchasing cost at each hour in the next day and the power supply amount of the user are calculated according to the average electricity purchasing cost at each hour in the next day:
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000021
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000022
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000023
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000024
wherein,
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000025
representing the actual demand of the load user per time;
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000026
representing the actual daily electricity consumption of the user;
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000027
respectively representing the generated energy of the photovoltaic and the dispersed wind power on the roof;
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000028
indicating the current electricity purchasing quantity of the electricity selling company; lambda [ alpha ] L Representing a power usage deviation factor;
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000029
the power supply amount per hour of the power selling company as a load user is represented; p q Representing the price of electricity purchased before the day;
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200000210
representing the average electricity purchase cost per hour before the day.
Further, in the power selling company system dynamics cost model, the deviation value of the user daily actual power consumption, the user daily power supply quantity and the energy storage power station collected power quantity determines to generate extra daily electricity purchasing quantity, if the extra electricity purchasing quantity is generated, extra electricity purchasing cost is formed based on the real-time market electricity price and the influence coefficient of the electricity quantity on the electricity price, and the extra electricity purchasing cost per hour is specifically calculated as follows:
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200000211
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200000212
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200000213
wherein,
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000031
representing the power utilization deviation value of the load user at each time;
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000032
respectively representing the generated energy of the photovoltaic and the dispersed wind power on the roof;
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000033
the power supply amount per hour of the power selling company as a load user is represented;
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000034
representing the actual daily electricity consumption of the user;
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000035
represents an additional electricity purchase cost per hour; p s Representing the real-time electricity prices.
Further, in the power selling company system dynamics cost model, the concrete calculation of the roof photovoltaic operation and maintenance cost, the dispersed wind power operation and maintenance cost and the peak load regulation cost of the energy storage power station is as follows:
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000036
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000037
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000038
wherein,
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000039
respectively representing the operation and maintenance cost of the photovoltaic on the roof, the operation and maintenance cost of the dispersed wind power and the peak shaving cost of the energy storage power station;
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200000310
respectively representing the generated energy of the photovoltaic and the dispersed wind power on the roof;
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200000311
representing the daily discharge capacity of the energy storage power station;
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200000312
respectively representing the unit prices of operation and maintenance costs of a daily roof photovoltaic power station, a scattered wind power station and an energy storage power station; Δ P represents the line loss rate.
Further, in the power selling company system dynamics cost model, the discount cost of each user is formed by the product of the actual daily electricity consumption of the user and the average discount amount of the user, and the concrete steps are as follows:
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200000313
wherein,
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200000314
representing a user discount cost;
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200000315
indicating the average discount amount of the user,
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200000316
the actual daily electricity consumption of the user is represented, and the specific calculation is as follows:
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200000317
R y ＝M y ·L y
wherein,
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200000318
representing the daily basic electricity consumption of the user; r y Representing the power fluctuation of a load user; m y Representing the load user satisfaction; l is y Representing a load user electricity utilization limiting factor;
the average discount sum of the users comprises the wind power user discount sum and the photovoltaic user discount sum, and the average discount sum of the users comprises the following specific steps:
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000041
wherein d is P 、d W Respectively representing the discount proportions of roof photovoltaic and dispersed wind power; z P 、Z W And respectively representing the discount money of the roof photovoltaic users and the discount money of the scattered wind power users.
Further, in the power selling company system dynamics income model, the power selling company stores the residual electric quantity after the new energy power generation and the outsourcing power meet the actual power consumption of the local load users in the energy storage power station, and participates in peak regulation by different time periods according to different peak regulation requirements of different time periods in the peak regulation market, namely:
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000042
wherein,
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000043
representing the residual power of the new energy power generation of the load user;
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000044
respectively representing the generated energy of the photovoltaic and the dispersed wind power on the roof;
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000045
the power supply amount per hour of the power selling company as a load user is represented; alpha is alpha g The power utilization ratio of the power selling company is represented; Δ P represents the line loss rate;
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000046
represents;
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000047
representing the actual daily electricity consumption of the user;
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000048
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000049
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200000410
in the formula,
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200000411
representing the charge per hour of the energy storage power station;
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200000412
representing the daily discharge capacity of the energy storage power station;
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200000413
representing the stored electric quantity of the energy storage power station;
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200000417
and
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200000414
respectively representing the maximum charge and discharge capacity of the energy storage power station; p t h Representing the participating peak shaving electric quantity;
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200000415
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200000416
in the formula, beta E Representing the standby proportion of the energy storage power station; p t Representing participation in peak shaving electricity prices; y is t h Indicating the revenue per time of participating peak shaving.
Further, in the dynamic profit model of the electricity selling company system, the profit of the electricity selling company is the product of the actual power consumption of the load users and the retail electricity price in the area, that is:
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000051
wherein,
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000052
representing the income of electricity selling of the electricity selling company; p r Indicating a retail price of electricity;
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000053
representing the user's actual daily electricity usage.
Further, in the dynamic income model of the power selling company system, the power selling company obtains the subsidy of clean energy through renting the new energy power generation equipment of the load user, namely:
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000054
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000055
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000056
wherein,
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000057
respectively representing power generation subsidies of dispersed wind power and roof photovoltaic; a. the W 、A P Respectively representing the power generation reward proportion of the dispersed wind power and the roof photovoltaic;
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000058
representing the patch of clean energy every time;
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000059
respectively representing the generated energy of the photovoltaic and the dispersed wind power on the roof.
Further, the power selling company system dynamics diffusion model considers the cost and the income of a short-term power selling company, meanwhile, the satisfaction degree of the load users is used as a reference to form a middle-term expansion model of the power selling company, and the power selling company determines the user satisfaction degree based on the ratio of the new energy power generation amount of the load users to the basic power consumption amount of the load users, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200000510
wherein M is y Representing the load user satisfaction;
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200000511
respectively representing the generated energy of the photovoltaic and the dispersed wind power on the roof;
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200000512
representing the daily basic electricity consumption of the user;
the electricity selling company takes the profit of the difference between the cost and the profit as an important basis for the expansion of the company, refers to the degree of satisfaction of users, but is limited by the market size of the local area, namely:
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200000513
wherein, K g Indicating the spread of the electricity selling company;
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200000514
representing revenue per hour for the electricity selling company;
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200000515
represents the cost per hour of the electricity selling company; n is g Indicating the size of the power selling company; n is a radical of g Representing the market size;
the size of the power selling company is influenced by the expansion rate of the power selling company and the initial size, namely:
n g ＝INTEG(K g ,n g0 )
wherein n is g0 Indicating the initial size of the electricity selling company.
The invention has the following beneficial effects:
the invention is beneficial to defining the diffusion basis of the power selling company by establishing the dynamic diffusion model of the power selling company system; by establishing a power selling company system dynamics cost model, the method is beneficial to determining the internal new energy operation and maintenance and discount cost and external medium and long term and extra power purchasing influence factors of the power selling company in a new pushed business mode, and compared with the traditional mode, the cost is similar in the initial stage, but the daily cost of the power selling company is greatly reduced by the business mode provided by the invention in the middle and later stages, and finally the cost can be maintained at 30% of the original cost.
The method is favorable for combing the construction income of new energy power generation, government subsidy income, surplus electric quantity participation peak shaving income, electricity selling income and the like obtained by the electricity selling company through implementing a new business mode in users by establishing the system dynamics income model of the electricity selling company, and compared with the traditional mode, the income is similar at the initial stage, but the daily income of the electricity selling company is greatly improved by the business mode provided by the invention at the middle and later stages and can be improved by 10 times.
The method is beneficial to the integrated utilization of new energy resources, is beneficial to improving the resource utilization rate of a user side, and compared with the traditional mode which shows a relatively gentle diffusion trend in the diffusion process, the business mode provided by the invention is gentle in the early stage and rapidly increased in the middle stage, and the diffusion rate is gradually reduced to zero due to market saturation in the later stage.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram illustrating the diffusion trend of an electric power selling company;
FIG. 2 is a graph illustrating the electric utility company diffusivity trend;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of a user diffusion trend for installing dispersed wind power;
FIG. 4 is a schematic view of the user diffusion trend for installation of rooftop photovoltaics;
FIG. 5 is a comparison of the number of electricity selling companies;
FIG. 6 is a schematic diagram showing a comparison of daily cost of electricity selling companies;
FIG. 7 is a graph showing a comparison of the diffusion rates of electricity vendors;
fig. 8 is a comparison diagram of daily income of the power selling company.
Detailed Description
The invention will be further described with reference to the following figures and specific examples, but the scope of the invention is not limited thereto.
In order to make the objects, features and advantages of the present invention comprehensible, specific embodiments accompanied with figures are described in detail below, and it is apparent that the described embodiments are a part of, but not all of the embodiments of the present invention. All other embodiments, which can be obtained by a person skilled in the art without making creative efforts based on the embodiments of the present invention, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
In the following description, numerous specific details are set forth in order to provide a thorough understanding of the present invention, but the present invention may be practiced in other ways than those specifically described and will be readily apparent to those of ordinary skill in the art without departing from the spirit of the present invention, and therefore the present invention is not limited to the specific embodiments disclosed below.
According to the electric power selling company diffusion system based on new energy investment lease, the diffusion of electric power selling companies in a new business mode is related to cost and income, so that the electric power selling company diffusion system comprises an electric power selling company system dynamic cost model, an electric power selling company system dynamic income model and an electric power selling company system dynamic diffusion model.
The dynamic cost model of the power selling company system comprises the initial cost per hour of the power selling company, the average power purchasing cost per hour in the day, the extra power purchasing cost per hour, the roof photovoltaic operation and maintenance cost, the scattered wind power operation and maintenance cost, the peak regulation cost of the energy storage power station and the discount cost of a user per hour.
The cost per hour of the electricity selling company is the sum of the initial cost per hour of the electricity selling company, the average electricity purchasing cost per hour before the day, the extra electricity purchasing cost per hour, the roof photovoltaic operation and maintenance cost, the scattered wind power operation and maintenance cost, the peak regulation cost of the energy storage power station and the discount cost of the user per hour, namely:
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000071
wherein,
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000072
represents the cost per hour of the electricity selling company;
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000073
represents a user discount cost per hour;
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000074
respectively representing the operation and maintenance cost of the photovoltaic on the roof, the operation and maintenance cost of the dispersed wind power and the peak shaving cost of the energy storage power station;
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000075
representing the average electricity purchasing cost per hour before the day;
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000076
means per in additionThe cost of electricity purchase;
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000077
representing the initial cost per hour of the electricity selling company;
because the user participates in investment of roof photovoltaic and scattered wind power, the actual electricity consumption demand of the user at each time is the difference between the actual electricity consumption and the new energy generated energy, the required values are accumulated for 24 hours, the average day-ahead electricity purchasing quantity and the user power supply quantity of each hour in the next day are averaged, and meanwhile, the average day-ahead electricity purchasing cost is calculated, namely:
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000078
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000081
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000082
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000083
wherein,
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000084
representing the actual demand of the load user per time;
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000085
representing the actual daily electricity consumption of the user;
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000086
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000087
respectively representing the generated energy of the photovoltaic and the dispersed wind power on the roof;
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000088
indicating the current electricity purchasing quantity of the electricity selling company; lambda [ alpha ] L Representing a power usage deviation factor;
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000089
the power supply amount per hour of the power selling company as a load user is represented; p q Indicating the price of the electricity purchased before the day.
Aiming at the extra electricity purchasing cost per hour, firstly, the actual daily electricity consumption of a user, the daily power supply quantity of the user and the deviation value of the collected electric quantity of the energy storage power station determine to generate extra electricity purchasing quantity per day, if the extra electricity purchasing quantity is generated, the extra electricity purchasing cost is formed on the basis of the real-time market electricity price and the influence coefficient of the electric quantity on the electricity price, and the extra electricity purchasing cost per hour is specifically calculated as follows:
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200000810
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200000811
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200000812
wherein,
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200000813
representing the power utilization deviation value of the load user at each time; p s Representing the real-time electricity prices.
The roof photovoltaic operation and maintenance cost is calculated by the daily roof photovoltaic operation and maintenance cost unit price, the roof photovoltaic power generation amount and the line loss rate; the scattered wind power operation and maintenance cost is calculated by the daily scattered wind power operation and maintenance cost unit price, the scattered wind power generation capacity and the line loss rate; the peak regulation cost of the energy storage power station is calculated by the operation and maintenance cost unit price of the energy storage power station every day, the discharge capacity of the energy storage power station every day and the line loss rate; the method comprises the following specific steps:
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200000814
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200000815
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200000816
wherein,
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200000817
representing the daily discharge capacity of the energy storage power station;
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200000818
respectively representing the unit prices of operation and maintenance costs of a daily roof photovoltaic power station, a scattered wind power station and an energy storage power station; Δ P represents the line loss rate.
The discount cost of each user is formed by the product of the actual daily electricity consumption of the user and the average discount amount of the user, and the discount cost is specifically as follows:
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000091
wherein,
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000092
the average discount amount of the user is represented, and the calculation is as follows:
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000093
R y ＝M y ·L y
wherein,
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000094
indicating that the user is dailyBasic electricity consumption; r y Representing the power fluctuation of a load user; m y Representing the load user satisfaction; l is y Representing a load user electricity utilization limiting factor;
the average discount money of the users comprises the wind power user discount money and the photovoltaic user discount money, and the average discount money of the users comprises the following concrete steps:
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000095
wherein d is P 、d W Respectively representing the discount proportions of roof photovoltaic and dispersed wind power; z P 、Z W And respectively representing the discount money of the roof photovoltaic users and the discount money of the scattered wind power users.
The dynamic income model of the power selling company system comprises the initial income per hour, the income per hour of the power selling company, the income of the new energy construction, the subsidy of clean energy per hour and the income per hour of participating peak shaving, and is specifically calculated as follows:
firstly, constructing a relation structure of retail electricity price and rooftop photovoltaic and dispersed wind power users, wherein the retail electricity price is formed by operation and maintenance costs of dispersed wind power, rooftop photovoltaic and energy storage power stations and profit coefficients of electricity selling companies; and calculating the discount proportion of the electricity prices enjoyed by the dispersed wind power users and the roof photovoltaic users according to the ratio of the generated energy to the electricity consumption of the dispersed wind power users and the roof photovoltaic users, comparing the discount proportion with the retail electricity prices, deducting the average daily cost generated by new energy installation, and finally generating installation willingness of the dispersed wind power users and the roof photovoltaic users so as to determine the installation diffusivity.
And secondly, deducting line loss and electricity self-consumption of the electricity selling companies from the generated energy of the dispersed wind power and the roof photovoltaic, collecting the generated energy in the energy storage power station, obtaining a clean energy subsidy according to the generated energy of the clean energy, and calculating new energy construction income according to daily increase and decrease of a user and the electric quantity collected by the energy storage power station. And calculating the residual electricity participation peak regulation income of the energy storage power station based on the daily electricity supply amount of the user, the collected electricity amount of the energy storage power station, the daily actual electricity consumption amount of the user and the extra daily electricity supply amount. Finally, the electricity selling profit can be obtained by the daily actual electricity consumption and the retail electricity price of the user.
The income per hour of the power selling company is the sum of the initial income per hour, the income per hour of the power selling company, the subsidy per hour of the clean energy, and the income per hour of participating peak regulation, namely:
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000101
wherein,
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000102
representing revenue per hour for the electricity selling company; y is t h Representing the income of participating peak shaving every time;
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000103
representing the income of electricity selling of the electricity selling company;
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000104
representing the subsidy of clean energy every time;
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000105
indicating the initial revenue of the power selling company each time.
The power selling company stores the residual electric quantity after the new energy power generation and the outsourcing power meet the actual power consumption of the regional load users in the energy storage power station, and participates in peak regulation in different time periods according to different peak regulation requirements in the peak regulation market, namely:
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000106
wherein,
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000107
representing the residual power of the new energy power generation of the load user; alpha is alpha g The power utilization ratio of the power selling company is represented;
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000108
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000109
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200001010
in the formula,
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200001011
representing the charge per hour of the energy storage power station;
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200001012
representing the stored electric quantity of the energy storage power station;
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200001013
and
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200001014
respectively representing the maximum charge and discharge capacity of the energy storage power station;
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200001015
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200001016
in the formula, P t h Representing the participating peak shaving electric quantity; beta is a E Representing the standby proportion of the energy storage power station; p t Indicating participation in peak shaving electricity rates.
The electricity selling income of the electricity selling company is the product of the actual electricity consumption of the load users and the retail electricity price in the area, namely:
Figure RE-GDA00036970883200001017
wherein, P r Indicating the retail electricity price.
The power selling company obtains the subsidy of clean energy through renting the new energy power generation equipment of the load user, namely:
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000111
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000112
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000113
wherein,
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000114
respectively representing power generation subsidies of dispersed wind power and roof photovoltaic; a. the W 、A P And respectively representing the power generation reward proportion of the dispersed wind power and the roof photovoltaic.
The dynamic diffusion model of the power selling company system mainly considers the cost and the income of a short-term power selling company, and meanwhile, the satisfaction degree of a load user is used as a reference to form a middle-term expansion model of the power selling company.
The electricity selling company determines the user satisfaction degree of the electricity price package (namely the new energy investment lease business model) based on the ratio of the new energy generating capacity in the load users to the basic electricity consumption, namely:
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000115
the electricity selling company takes the profit of the difference between the cost and the profit as an important basis for the expansion of the company, refers to the degree of satisfaction of users, but is limited by the market size of the local area, namely:
Figure RE-GDA0003697088320000116
wherein, K g Indicating the spread of the electricity selling company; n is g Indicating the size of the power selling company; n is a radical of g Representing the market size;
the size of the power selling company is influenced by the expansion rate of the power selling company and the initial size, namely:
n g ＝INTEG(K g ,n g0 )
wherein n is g0 Indicating the initial size of the electricity selling company.
The invention fully utilizes two new energy resources of dispersed wind power and roof photovoltaic, forms a new energy investment lease business mode, excavates potential green power generation resources at the user side through a discount measure of electricity price discount, mobilizes the enthusiasm of load users for participating in investment construction, and also widens a new income source for electricity selling companies.
After the novel new energy investment lease business mode is adopted, the spreading trend of the electricity selling company is shown in figure 1, the spreading rate trend of the electricity selling company is shown in figure 2, the spreading trend of users installing scattered wind power is shown in figure 3, and the spreading trend of users installing roof photovoltaic is shown in figure 4.
The invention also carries out comparative analysis on the traditional business model and the novel new energy investment lease business model, wherein the number of the electricity selling companies is shown in figure 5, the daily cost of the electricity selling companies is shown in figure 6, the diffusion rate of the electricity selling companies is shown in figure 7, and the daily income of the electricity selling companies is shown in figure 8.
The present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments, and any obvious improvements, substitutions or modifications can be made by those skilled in the art without departing from the spirit of the present invention.

Claims (9)

1. A new energy investment lease-based electric power selling company diffusion system is characterized by comprising an electric power selling company system dynamic cost model, an electric power selling company system dynamic income model and an electric power selling company system dynamic diffusion model; the power selling company system dynamics cost model comprises the initial cost of the power selling company, the average electricity purchasing cost per hour in the day, the extra electricity purchasing cost per hour, the roof photovoltaic operation and maintenance cost, the scattered wind power operation and maintenance cost, the peak load regulation cost of the energy storage power station and the discount cost of users per hour; the dynamic income model of the power selling company system comprises the initial income per hour, the income per hour of the power selling company, the income of the new energy construction, the subsidy per hour of the clean energy and the income per hour of the peak shaving participation.
2. The new energy investment lease-based electricity selling company diffusion system as claimed in claim 1, wherein in the electricity selling company system dynamic cost model, the actual electricity consumption demand of the user at each hour is the difference between the actual electricity consumption and the new energy power generation amount, the required values are accumulated for 24 hours, and the average electricity purchasing cost at each hour in the day before is the following day when the average electricity purchasing cost at each hour in the day before and the electricity supply amount of the user is:
Figure FDA0003554174210000011
Figure FDA0003554174210000012
Figure FDA0003554174210000013
Figure FDA0003554174210000014
wherein,
Figure FDA0003554174210000015
representing the actual demand of the load user per time;
Figure FDA0003554174210000016
representing the actual daily electricity consumption of the user;
Figure FDA0003554174210000017
respectively representing the generated energy of the photovoltaic and the dispersed wind power on the roof;
Figure FDA0003554174210000018
indicating the current electricity purchasing quantity of the electricity selling company; lambda [ alpha ] L Representing a power usage deviation factor;
Figure FDA0003554174210000019
the power supply amount per hour of the power selling company as a load user is represented; p q Representing the price of electricity purchased before the day;
Figure FDA00035541742100000110
representing the average electricity purchase cost per hour day ahead.
3. The power selling company diffusion system based on new energy investment lease of claim 1, wherein in the power selling company system dynamic cost model, the deviation value of the user daily actual power consumption, the user daily power supply quantity and the collected electric quantity of the energy storage power station determines to generate additional daily electricity purchasing quantity, if the additional electricity purchasing quantity is generated, the additional electricity purchasing cost is formed based on the real-time market electricity price and the influence coefficient of the electric quantity on the electricity price, and the additional electricity purchasing cost per hour is specifically calculated as follows:
Figure FDA00035541742100000111
Figure FDA00035541742100000112
Figure FDA0003554174210000021
wherein,
Figure FDA0003554174210000022
representing the power utilization deviation value of the load user at each time;
Figure FDA0003554174210000023
respectively representing the generated energy of the photovoltaic and the dispersed wind power on the roof;
Figure FDA0003554174210000024
the power supply amount per hour of the power selling company as a load user is represented;
Figure FDA0003554174210000025
representing the actual daily electricity consumption of the user;
Figure FDA0003554174210000026
represents an additional electricity purchase cost per hour; p s Representing the real-time electricity prices.
4. The new energy investment lease-based electric sales company diffusion system as claimed in claim 1, wherein in the dynamic cost model of the electric sales company system, the specific calculation of the rooftop photovoltaic operation and maintenance cost, the decentralized wind power operation and maintenance cost, and the peak shaving cost of the energy storage power station is as follows:
Figure FDA0003554174210000027
Figure FDA0003554174210000028
Figure FDA0003554174210000029
wherein,
Figure FDA00035541742100000210
respectively representing the operation and maintenance cost of the photovoltaic on the roof, the operation and maintenance cost of the dispersed wind power and the peak shaving cost of the energy storage power station;
Figure FDA00035541742100000211
respectively representing the generated energy of the photovoltaic and the dispersed wind power on the roof;
Figure FDA00035541742100000212
representing the daily discharge capacity of the energy storage power station;
Figure FDA00035541742100000213
respectively representing the unit prices of operation and maintenance costs of a daily roof photovoltaic power station, a scattered wind power station and an energy storage power station; Δ P represents the line loss rate.
5. The new energy investment lease-based electricity selling company diffusion system as claimed in claim 1, wherein in the electricity selling company system dynamic cost model, the discount cost of each time user is formed by the product of the actual daily electricity consumption of the user and the average discount amount of the user, and the method comprises the following steps:
Figure FDA00035541742100000214
wherein,
Figure FDA00035541742100000215
representing a user discount cost;
Figure FDA00035541742100000216
indicating the average discount amount of the user,
Figure FDA00035541742100000217
means for indicating daily actual power consumption of userThe volume is calculated as follows:
Figure FDA00035541742100000218
R y ＝M y ·L y
wherein,
Figure FDA00035541742100000219
representing the daily basic electricity consumption of the user; r y Representing the power fluctuation of a load user; m y Representing the load user satisfaction; l is y Representing a load user electricity utilization limiting factor;
the average discount money of the users comprises the wind power user discount money and the photovoltaic user discount money, and the method comprises the following specific steps:
Figure FDA0003554174210000031
wherein d is P 、d W Respectively representing the discount proportions of roof photovoltaic and dispersed wind power; z P 、Z W And respectively representing the discount money of the roof photovoltaic users and the discount money of the scattered wind power users.
6. The new energy investment lease-based electric power selling company diffusion system as claimed in claim 1, wherein in the dynamic income model of the electric power selling company system, the electric power selling company stores the residual electric quantity after the new energy power generation and the outsourcing power meet the actual power consumption of the local load users in the energy storage power station, and participates in peak regulation in different time periods according to different peak regulation requirements in the peak regulation market, namely:
Figure FDA0003554174210000032
wherein,
Figure FDA0003554174210000033
representing the residual power of the new energy power generation of the load user;
Figure FDA0003554174210000034
respectively representing the generated energy of the photovoltaic and the dispersed wind power on the roof;
Figure FDA0003554174210000035
the power supply amount per hour of the power selling company as a load user is represented; alpha is alpha g The power utilization ratio of the power selling company is represented; Δ P represents the line loss rate;
Figure FDA0003554174210000036
represents;
Figure FDA0003554174210000037
representing the actual daily electricity consumption of the user;
Figure FDA0003554174210000038
Figure FDA0003554174210000039
Figure FDA00035541742100000310
in the formula,
Figure FDA00035541742100000311
representing the charge per hour of the energy storage power station;
Figure FDA00035541742100000312
representing the daily discharge capacity of the energy storage power station;
Figure FDA00035541742100000313
representing the stored electric quantity of the energy storage power station;
Figure FDA00035541742100000314
and
Figure FDA00035541742100000315
respectively representing the maximum charge and discharge capacity of the energy storage power station;
Figure FDA00035541742100000316
representing the participating peak shaving electric quantity;
Figure FDA00035541742100000317
Figure FDA00035541742100000318
in the formula, beta E Representing the standby proportion of the energy storage power station; p t Representing participation in peak shaving electricity prices; y is t h Indicating the revenue per time of participating peak shaving.
7. The new energy investment lease-based electricity selling company diffusion system as claimed in claim 1, wherein in the electricity selling company system dynamic profit model, the electricity selling profit of an electricity selling company is the product of the actual electricity consumption of the load users in the area and the retail electricity price, namely:
Figure FDA0003554174210000041
wherein, Y s h Representing the income of electricity selling of the electricity selling company; p r Indicating a retail price of electricity;
Figure FDA0003554174210000042
indicating the user's daily actual usageThe amount of electricity.
8. The new energy investment lease-based electric power selling company diffusion system as claimed in claim 1, wherein in the dynamic income model of the electric power selling company system, the electric power selling company obtains the subsidy of clean energy by leasing the new energy power generation equipment of the load users, namely:
Figure FDA0003554174210000043
Figure FDA0003554174210000044
Figure FDA0003554174210000045
wherein,
Figure FDA0003554174210000046
respectively representing power generation subsidies of dispersed wind power and roof photovoltaic; a. the W 、A P Respectively representing the power generation reward proportion of the dispersed wind power and the roof photovoltaic;
Figure FDA0003554174210000047
representing the patch of clean energy every time;
Figure FDA0003554174210000048
respectively representing the generated energy of the photovoltaic and the dispersed wind power on the roof.
9. The new energy investment lease-based electric power selling company diffusion system as claimed in claim 1, wherein the dynamic diffusion model of the electric power selling company system considers the cost and income of short-term electric power selling companies, and meanwhile, the satisfaction degree of load users is taken as a reference to form a middle-term expansion model of the electric power selling company, and the electric power selling company determines the user satisfaction degree based on the ratio of the new energy power generation amount of the load users to the basic power consumption amount thereof, which is as follows:
Figure FDA0003554174210000049
wherein M is y Representing the load user satisfaction;
Figure FDA00035541742100000410
respectively representing the generated energy of the photovoltaic and the dispersed wind power on the roof;
Figure FDA00035541742100000411
representing the daily basic electricity consumption of the user;
the electricity selling company takes the profit of the difference between the cost and the profit as an important basis for the expansion of the company, refers to the satisfaction degree of users, but is limited by the market scale of the local area, namely:
Figure FDA00035541742100000412
wherein, K g Indicating the spread of the electricity selling company;
Figure FDA00035541742100000413
representing the income of the power selling company every hour;
Figure FDA00035541742100000414
represents the cost per hour of the electricity selling company; n is g Indicating the size of the power selling company; n is a radical of hydrogen g The market scale is represented;
the size of the power selling company is influenced by the expansion rate of the power selling company and the initial size, namely:
n g ＝INTEG(K g ,n g0 )
wherein n is g0 Indicating the initial size of the electricity selling company.
CN202210272445.XA 2022-03-18 2022-03-18 Electricity selling company diffusion system based on new energy investment lease Pending CN114819495A (en)

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