CN114568239A - Cotton high-temperature heat damage prediction method - Google Patents
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- 229920000742 Cotton Polymers 0.000 title claims abstract description 133
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- 238000003973 irrigation Methods 0.000 claims description 8
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for predicting high-temperature heat damage of cotton, which comprises the following steps: the method comprises the steps of obtaining geographic information of Cotton fields in an area, obtaining current-year planting basic data of the Cotton fields, obtaining first-section meteorological data, second-section meteorological data, third-section meteorological data and fourth-section meteorological data, inputting the current-year planting basic data of the Cotton fields, first group data formed by the first-section meteorological data, the second-section meteorological data and the fourth-section meteorological data and second group data formed by the third-section meteorological data replacing the second-section meteorological data in the first group data into a Cotton Cotton XL model, obtaining two groups of Cotton growth and development indexes, and predicting the influence of high-temperature heat damage on the Cotton growth and development according to the deviation degree of the two groups of Cotton growth and development indexes. The method carries out disaster prediction aiming at the whole process of cotton growth and development, and can provide reliable basis for scientific disaster prevention and reduction by taking measures in time for cotton production.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of cotton high-temperature heat damage prediction, in particular to a method for predicting cotton high-temperature heat damage.
Background
Xinjiang is one of the most remarkably affected areas by climate change, and the average warming trend is higher than the average level in China. The occurrence intensity and frequency of high temperature in the Xinjiang cotton area are obviously increased under the background of climate change, high-temperature weather (more than 35 ℃) in a wide range in Xinjiang occurs in 5 years in nearly 10 years, high-temperature weather in a wide range in Nanjiang occurs in 4 years, wherein the high-temperature influence range extends from 7 middle ten days to 8 upper ten days in 2015 year, the high temperature lasts for 12-30 days in the whole Xinjiang cotton area, and the high temperature of more than 40 ℃ continues to occur for a long time. The period of 7-8 months is a period of frequent high-temperature weather in a cotton area in Xinjiang, and the cotton is in a flowering-cracking stage (a flowering stage), and researches show that the high-temperature weather in a reproductive growth period of the cotton can reduce the activity of pollen, the fertility rate and the like, and prevent physiological processes such as transpiration, photosynthesis, dry matter accumulation and distribution and the like, so that the boll-forming rate, the boll volume, the cotton seed number, fiber development and the like are influenced, and finally, the yield is reduced and the fiber quality is reduced. The high temperature in the boll-blooming period under the climate warming background becomes one of important meteorological disasters affecting the high yield, the high quality and the stable yield of a Xinjiang cotton area.
Therefore, the method has important significance for timely taking countermeasures to reduce and prevent the influence of the high-temperature heat damage of the cotton so as to ensure that the cotton is produced with stable yield, high yield and high quality.
Judging whether high-temperature cold damage occurs to cotton according to meteorological indexes, wherein the high temperature of more than or equal to 35 ℃ is mild high-temperature heat damage after lasting for 3 days, the high temperature lasts for 5 days, and the high temperature lasts for 7 days or more.
High temperature can affect the normal physiological activity of cotton, reduce pollen activity, increase bud and boll shedding and the like, but a grower can adopt methods of high frequency, small amount of irrigation and the like in the growth process of the cotton to reduce the ground temperature and the temperature in a canopy layer, and simultaneously ensure the water supply to ensure that the plant can reduce the temperature of a plant body through the transpiration effect, thereby reducing or eliminating the influence of high temperature heat damage. In addition, different varieties have different high temperature resistance, and are subjected to high temperature weather of the same degree, and the disaster situations are not consistent. In the prior art, whether high-temperature heat damage occurs in the future is judged only according to meteorological indexes, and the actual high-temperature resistance and growth and development conditions of crops are not considered, so that the high-temperature heat damage is usually predicted and diagnosed, and the actual crops are not suffered from disasters. In addition, the prior art scheme can not quantitatively judge the influence of high-temperature heat damage of different degrees on the growth and development, yield and quality of cotton, and is not favorable for timely taking counter measures to reduce the influence of disasters.
Disclosure of Invention
The embodiment of the invention provides a method for predicting high-temperature heat damage of cotton, which comprises the following steps:
acquiring current-year planting basic data of a cotton field;
acquiring a first section of meteorological data consisting of meteorological data of a cotton field day by day from a sowing day to a prediction day;
acquiring second-stage meteorological data consisting of day-by-day meteorological data of the cotton field in a high-temperature period predicted by meteorological forecasting;
acquiring third-stage meteorological data consisting of cotton field day-by-day meteorological data with normal temperature year in the same time period as the second-stage meteorological data;
acquiring fourth section meteorological data formed by day-by-day meteorological data of the cotton field in the year from the end of the high-temperature time period to the normal temperature of the cotton harvesting day;
respectively inputting the basic data of Cotton field planting in the current year, a first group of data consisting of first section meteorological data, a second section meteorological data and a fourth section meteorological data, and a second group of data consisting of third section meteorological data replacing second section meteorological data in the first group of data into a Cotton XL model to obtain two groups of Cotton growth and development indexes;
and (4) predicting the influence of the high-temperature heat damage on the growth and development of the cotton according to the deviation degree of the two groups of cotton growth and development indexes.
Further, the method also comprises the step of carrying out parameter correction on the Cotton XL model, wherein the parameter correction comprises the following steps:
acquiring geographic information of cotton fields in an area;
acquiring cotton observation information and day-by-day meteorological information of a cotton field in a past period of time;
and performing parameter correction on the Cotton XL model according to the geographic information of the Cotton field, the Cotton observation information of the Cotton field and the weather information of the Cotton field day by day.
Further, geographic information of the cotton field in the area comprises:
longitude of the cotton field, latitude of the cotton field, altitude of the cotton field.
Further, cotton field cotton observation information includes:
variety name, growth period, single boll weight, single plant boll number, boll shedding rate, fiber length, fiber specific strength, micronaire value, clothes mark and theoretical yield.
Further, the cotton field daily meteorological data comprises:
daily maximum air temperature data, daily minimum air temperature data, daily sunshine hours data and daily precipitation data.
Further, the basic data of the current-year planting of the cotton fields comprise:
cotton variety, sowing time, planting density, plant row configuration, row spacing, topping time, irrigation time and irrigation quantity.
Furthermore, the cotton growth and development indexes comprise:
leaf area index, overground part dry matter mass, cotton bud and boll shedding rate, bud and boll number, single boll weight, seed cotton yield, lint, fiber length, fiber specific strength and micronaire value.
Further, the day-by-day meteorological data of the cotton field with the normal temperature of the year is the day-by-day meteorological data of the cotton field with the highest temperature not more than 35 ℃.
Compared with the prior art, the embodiment of the invention provides a method for predicting the high-temperature heat damage of cotton, which has the following beneficial effects:
the invention utilizes the cotton functional structure model to dynamically simulate various indexes of the cotton field growth and development day by day, comprehensively considers the influence of weather, climate, management measures and varieties on the cotton growth and development, combines the temperature condition with the cotton growth and development condition, carries out the criterion of the high-temperature thermal hazard influence according to the deviation degree of various indexes and the proper temperature condition under the high-temperature influence, can enable the disaster prediction to be more specific to the detailed process of the crop growth and development, and can provide reliable basis for scientific disaster prevention and reduction of the timely taking of coping measures for the cotton production
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a method for predicting high temperature thermal damage of cotton according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Referring to fig. 1, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for predicting a high temperature thermal damage of cotton, including:
s1: acquiring the geographic position of the cotton field;
specifically, in step S1, the geographic location of the cotton field, including longitude, latitude, and altitude, is accurately obtained.
S2: acquiring cotton varieties, sowing time, planting density, plant row configuration, topping time and day-by-day meteorological data of the cotton field planted in the same year;
specifically, in step S2, the cotton variety planted in the cotton field, the sowing time (the time (month/day) when the drip irrigation water for emergence is required to be recorded when the wet and dry cotton fields are sown) and the planting density (plant/m) are accurately recorded2) Plant and row configuration (plant spacing (cm), row spacing (cm)), topping time (month/day), irrigation quantity (m)3Per mu), daily meteorological data including daily maximum air temperature (DEG C), daily minimum air temperature (DEG C), sunshine hours (h), and precipitation (mm).
S3: acquiring regional test information of the cotton variety in 3-5 years and corresponding daily meteorological information;
specifically, in step S3, the cotton variety 3-5 year regional test information is acquired: variety name, growth period, single bell weight, single boll number, bud-bell shedding rate, fiber length, fiber specific strength, micronaire value, clothes mark and theoretical yield; acquiring weather data by day corresponding to a test site, wherein the weather data comprises a highest temperature (DEG C), a lowest temperature (DEG C), sunshine hours (h) and precipitation (mm) by day.
S4: carrying out parameter adjustment and model verification on the cotton model by using the basic data acquired by S1 and S3, so that the model can accurately simulate the growth and development and yield formation conditions of the cotton field;
specifically, in step S4, the cotton model is subjected to parameter adjustment and verification by using the regional test data of the cotton variety for 3-5 years, so that the model can accurately simulate the growth, development, yield and quality formation of the cotton variety.
S5: combining with future weather and climate prediction, performing simulation analysis on a day-by-day dynamic growth process of cotton by using a cotton model after parameter correction, and dynamically forecasting the occurrence condition of high-temperature thermal injury of the cotton in the current year by comparing the growth information such as the shedding rate of cotton buds and bolls, the weight of single bolls and the daily growth rate of the cotton in the current year with the difference of the growth condition of the cotton under a proper temperature condition;
specifically, in step S5, according to the basic data collected in S2 and combined with future weather climate prediction, a cotton model is used to simulate leaf area index, overground part dry matter quality (g), cotton bud and boll shedding rate, bud and boll number (one), single boll weight (g), seed cotton yield (kg/hm) under current weather conditions2) The coating (%), the fiber length (mm), and the specific fiber strength (cN. tex)-1) Day-to-day dynamic change of micronaire values. The weather data of the weather climate forecast in the high-temperature period is replaced by the appropriate temperature (the highest temperature is less than 35 ℃), and the cotton model is used for simulating the dynamic change of various indexes of the growth and development of cotton under the appropriate temperature condition. Comparing and analyzing various indexes of the growth and development of the cotton in the current year with the indexes of the growth and development of the cotton under the proper temperature condition, and realizing the cotton according to the deviation degree of the various indexes of the cotton in the current year and the various indexes under the proper temperature conditionThe high-temperature heat damage is dynamically predicted day by day, and a decision basis is provided for timely taking measures to avoid or reduce the influence of the high-temperature heat damage in cotton production.
Example 1:
overview of the study region
In 2021, the research area was located in the san bay city, Tacheng, Xin Jiang, with a test variety of Xinluzao No. 78 and a planting scale of 100 mu.
Second, test results
Uniformly managing the research area according to a local conventional mode, wherein the sowing time is 4 months and 25 days, the planting mode is 1 film and 6 lines (10cm +66cm +10cm), carrying out drip irrigation under the film, and fertilizing along with water. Weather and climate prediction results show that the temperature is continuously higher in 7 months, the number of high-temperature days at the temperature of more than or equal to 35 ℃ is the second historical place, the cotton bud and boll shedding rate is predicted to be increased by 20% according to the model, and the yield is predicted to be reduced by 50 kg/mu due to high-temperature thermal damage under the condition that disaster prevention measures are not taken. According to the prediction result of the method, management measures such as pruning control and the like are taken in advance in 5 days before the high-temperature weather occurs in the research area, so that the field ventilation and light transmission are improved; irrigating 2 days before the high temperature comes, and ensuring the water consumption requirement of cotton transpiration; after entering high-temperature weather, a small amount of high-frequency irrigation is carried out, and the low temperature and the temperature in the canopy layer are reduced. And the control area adopts related measures such as pruning, regulating, irrigating and the like after the high temperature comes. The bud and bell shedding rate of the final research area is 10% lower than that of the control area, and the yield is 30 kg/mu higher than that of the control area.
Therefore, the method can effectively predict the occurrence of high-temperature heat damage, guide farmers to take disaster prevention and reduction measures in advance and reduce the influence of disasters.
Although the embodiments of the present invention have been disclosed in the foregoing for illustrative purposes, those skilled in the art will appreciate that various modifications, additions and substitutions are possible, without departing from the scope and spirit of the invention as disclosed in the accompanying drawings.
Claims (8)
1. A method for predicting high-temperature thermal damage of cotton is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring current-year planting basic data of a cotton field;
acquiring a first section of meteorological data consisting of day-by-day meteorological data of a cotton field from a sowing day to a prediction day;
acquiring second-stage meteorological data consisting of meteorological forecast predicted daily meteorological data of the cotton field in the high-temperature period;
acquiring third-stage meteorological data consisting of cotton field day-by-day meteorological data with the temperature of the normal year in the same time period as the second-stage meteorological data;
acquiring a fourth section of meteorological data consisting of day-by-day meteorological data of a cotton field from the end of a high-temperature time period to the normal temperature of a cotton harvesting day;
respectively inputting the basic data of Cotton field planting in the current year, a first group of data consisting of first section meteorological data, a second section meteorological data and a fourth section meteorological data, and a second group of data consisting of third section meteorological data replacing second section meteorological data in the first group of data into a Cotton XL model to obtain two groups of Cotton growth and development indexes;
and (4) predicting the influence of the high-temperature heat damage on the growth and development of the cotton according to the deviation degree of the two groups of cotton growth and development indexes.
2. The method of claim 1, further comprising performing parameter calibration on a Cotton XL model, comprising:
acquiring geographic information of cotton fields in an area;
acquiring cotton observation information and day-by-day meteorological information of a cotton field in a past period of time;
and performing parameter correction on the Cotton XL model according to the geographic information of the Cotton field, the Cotton observation information of the Cotton field and the weather information of the Cotton field day by day.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein the geographic information of the cotton fields in the area comprises:
longitude of the cotton field, latitude of the cotton field, altitude of the cotton field.
4. The method of claim 2, wherein the observed cotton field information comprises:
variety name, growth period, single boll weight, single plant boll number, boll shedding rate, fiber length, fiber specific strength, micronaire value, clothes mark and theoretical yield.
5. The method of claim 2, wherein the day-by-day meteorological data for cotton field comprises:
daily maximum air temperature data, daily minimum air temperature data, daily sunshine hours data and daily precipitation data.
6. The method for predicting high temperature and heat damage of cotton as claimed in claim 1, wherein the basic data of the cotton field planted in the current year comprises:
cotton variety, sowing time, planting density, plant row configuration, row spacing, topping time, irrigation time and irrigation quantity.
7. The method for predicting high temperature heat damage of cotton as claimed in claim 1, wherein the indexes of cotton growth and development comprise:
leaf area index, overground part dry matter mass, cotton bud and boll shedding rate, bud and boll number, single boll weight, seed cotton yield, lint, fiber length, fiber specific strength and micronaire value.
8. The method for predicting high temperature and heat damage of cotton as claimed in claim 1, wherein the daily meteorological data of cotton field with normal temperature for a year is the daily meteorological data of cotton field with the highest temperature not exceeding 35 ℃.
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| CN113902215A (en) * | 2021-11-01 | 2022-01-07 | 北京飞花科技有限公司 | Forecasting method for delayed cold damage dynamics of cotton |
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| CN113902215A (en) * | 2021-11-01 | 2022-01-07 | 北京飞花科技有限公司 | Forecasting method for delayed cold damage dynamics of cotton |
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