CN114519495A - Ocean pollutant motion trajectory prediction and coastal power plant water taking safety early warning method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for predicting motion trail of marine pollutants and safely warning water intake of a coastal power plant, which comprises the following steps: (1) establishing a regional power flow mathematical model; (2) establishing a particle tracking model; (3) dividing the sea area around the engineering water intake door into a plurality of particle source release points by taking the engineering water intake door as a center; (4) calculating the motion path of the pollutants, and counting the flux and distribution condition of the pollutants entering the open channel; (5) making a probability cloud picture of pollutants entering an open channel; (6) marking the pollutants according to field synchronization; (7) and inputting the pollutant information into a particle mathematical model, predicting the subsequent motion track of the pollutant and calculating the time of the pollutant moving to a water intake, and giving an early warning to a coastal power plant operation unit. By adopting the technical scheme, early warning can be provided for cold source safety departments of the coastal power plants, the risk of unit shutdown caused by pollutant accumulation of the coastal power plants is reduced, and the operation efficiency of the coastal power plants is improved.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of coastal power plant guarantee, and particularly relates to a marine pollutant motion trajectory prediction and coastal power plant water taking safety early warning method.
Background
In recent years, the incident that marine organisms or foreign matters influence the water taking safety of the coastal power plant has been repeated at home and abroad, and the trend is increased, and the safety of a cold source becomes an important factor influencing the safety of the coastal power plant. According to the World Association of Nuclear Operators (WANO) analysis, approximately 20% of such events have a direct impact on security-related systems. Under the extreme conditions of large amount of marine life gathering, sudden inflow of pollutants and the like, accidents such as damage of a trash blocking structure, unit shutdown and the like seriously affect the water taking safety of a coastal power plant.
Because the pollutants are various in types and are limited by scientific prediction means, the main mode for dealing with the pollutants at present is a passive cleaning mode, namely, under the action of tide and cold source water taking, the pollutants are accumulated on each trash rack of a water intake door and are manually fished. For the daily operation period, the safe operation of the power plant can be ensured through frequent maintenance. However, under the extreme condition, after a large amount of pollutants suddenly gushes into the water intake door, because manpower and material resources can not satisfy the pollutant cleaning requirement in a short time, a large amount of pollutants are gathered to cause the structure of the trash rack to be damaged or seriously block the trash rack to influence water intake, thereby further causing the shutdown of a power plant and influencing the operating efficiency of the power plant.
The movement of the marine pollutants is comprehensively influenced by the tidal current, wind power and the water taking effect of a cold source, and the tidal current has periodic characteristics for a specific area, so that the movement track of the pollutants can be analyzed and predicted under the condition of mastering the regional tidal current and the water taking characteristics, the time of the pollutants reaching a water taking port can be calculated by combining field monitoring, effective early warning information is provided for operation units of the coastal power plants, and effective technical support is provided for the disaster prevention and reduction work of the coastal power plants.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the problems in the prior art, the invention provides a marine pollutant motion track prediction and coastal power plant water taking safety early warning method.
The invention is realized in this way, a marine pollutant movement track prediction and coastal power plant water taking safety early warning method, which is characterized in that: the method comprises the following steps:
(1) establishing a tidal current mathematical model: firstly, establishing a large-range tidal current mathematical model according to the characteristics of a project area, wherein the distance between an open sea boundary and a project position is 50-100 km; the mathematical model is based on the fluid incompressibility and Navier-Stokes equation and obeys Boussinesq assumption and hydrostatic pressure assumption; tidal forecast software Chinatade is used for providing tidal level boundary data, and hydrologic actual measurement data are verified, so that the validity of each parameter of the mathematical model under the engineering sea area is guaranteed, and the accuracy of the tidal flow mathematical model is guaranteed;
(2) establishing a particle tracking model: floating pollutants which are in a scattered state, have no self-swimming capability or weak self-swimming capability and enter the open channel are generalized into particles in a mathematical model; the particle tracking model adopts a Langevin equation to describe the migration motion of the particles;
(3) determining a particle source release point: respectively arranging a plurality of particle source release points in the sea area around the engineering water intake by taking the engineering water intake as a center according to the distance and the direction;
(4) counting the flux and distribution of the particles: calculating the motion tracks of the particles under the action of tide and open channel water taking after the pollutants are released at different points at different moments and different tide types according to a tide mathematical model and a particle tracking model, and counting the flux and distribution conditions of the particles passing through the position of a water intake trash rack; at the moment, the pollutant movement track prediction is finished;
(5) making a probability cloud picture: according to the statistical result, a probability cloud picture of the pollutants entering the open channel is made, the influence of the pollutants on water taking safety is evaluated, the coming danger degree of the pollutants can be judged through the probability cloud picture, the monitoring of the direction is emphasized, and the time of measures is reserved as the performance of observation equipment is provided, and the monitoring range and the distance are farther;
(6) real-time monitoring and marking: carrying out real-time monitoring on pollutants on site, timely marking the pollutants entering an observation range of an engineering area, and mastering the positions, the directions and the time of the pollutants from a water intake;
(7) predicting the subsequent motion track of the marked particle: inputting the marked particle information into a particle mathematical model, predicting the subsequent motion track of the marked particle and calculating the time from the subsequent motion track to a water intake through the calculation of the particle mathematical model, providing early warning for engineering operation units, and taking emergency measures in time, wherein the emergency measures comprise allocating personnel and equipment in advance to improve the cleaning capacity or selecting different salvage schemes according to the types of pollutants.
Preferably, the measured hydrological data in step 1 mainly include tide level, flow rate and flow direction data.
Preferably, the objects with no or weak self-swimming ability in step 2 comprise one or more of foam, straw, branches, plastics and aquatic weeds.
Preferably, in step 3, a particle release point is arranged within a range of 10km from the engineering water intake as a center at an interval of 1km, and the particle release point is in one direction of 22.5 °.
Preferably, the movement conditions of different points after releasing pollutants at the rising and stopping time, the falling and stopping time and the rising and stopping time are calculated in the step 4.
The invention has the advantages and technical effects that: according to the method, a pollutant motion numerical model of the coastal power plant sea area is established, the probability of the pollutant entering a water intake is counted, the key monitoring range and the key monitoring direction of the pollutant are provided, and guidance is provided for field monitoring. By combining the on-site monitoring and numerical simulation method, the motion track of the pollutants found in the sea area around the coastal power plant can be quickly calculated, the time for the pollutants to move to the water intake door can be predicted, the problems that garbage is passively cleaned and the pollutants suddenly flow into the pollutants cannot be effectively solved, and early warning information is provided for the operation department of the power plant.
By adopting the technical scheme, the power plant operation department can enhance the monitoring of key areas of the engineering sea area, and can quickly start the emergency plan in advance and allocate emergency resources after finding a large amount of pollutants entering the key areas, thereby effectively solving the problem of unit shutdown caused by the fact that the pollutants suddenly flow into a water intake and the garbage cannot be cleaned in time, and improving the operation efficiency of the power plant.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the marine pollutant motion trajectory prediction and coastal power plant water intake safety early warning.
FIG. 2 is a terrain and grid map of an engineering area of an embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 3 is a tidal level verification graph;
FIG. 4 is a flow velocity flow direction verification plot;
FIG. 5 is a schematic view of a contaminant release position;
FIG. 6 is a diagram showing the motion trajectory of released pollutants at the moment of rising and falling emergency at a distance of 1km from the dyke head in the WSW direction;
FIG. 7 is a graph showing the probability distribution of contaminant flux into the open channel at different locations at the time of the emergency.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent, the present invention is further described in detail with reference to the following embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the invention and are not intended to limit the invention.
Referring to fig. 1, a method for predicting motion trajectory of marine pollutants and safely warning water intake of a coastal power plant is characterized in that: the method comprises the following steps:
(1) establishing a tidal current mathematical model: firstly, establishing a large-range tidal current mathematical model according to the characteristics of a project area, wherein the distance between an open sea boundary and a project position is 50-100 km; the mathematical model is based on fluid incompressibility and Navier-Stokes equations and obeys Boussinesq assumption and hydrostatic pressure assumption; tidal forecast software Chinatade is used for providing tidal level boundary data, and hydrologic actual measurement data are verified, so that the validity of each parameter of the mathematical model under the engineering sea area is guaranteed, and the accuracy of the tidal flow mathematical model is guaranteed;
(2) establishing a particle tracking model: floating pollutants which are in a scattered state, have no self-swimming capability or weak self-swimming capability and enter the open channel are generalized into particles in a mathematical model; the particle tracking model adopts a Langevin equation to describe the migration motion of the particles;
(3) determining a particle source release point: respectively arranging a plurality of particle source release points in the sea area around the engineering water intake by taking the engineering water intake as a center according to the distance and the direction;
(4) counting the flux and distribution of the particles: calculating the motion tracks of the particles under the action of tide and open channel water taking after the pollutants are released at different points at different moments and different tide types according to a tide mathematical model and a particle tracking model, and counting the flux and distribution conditions of the particles passing through the position of a water intake trash rack; at the moment, the motion trail prediction of the pollutants is finished;
(5) making a probability cloud picture: according to the statistical result, a probability cloud picture of the pollutants entering the open channel is made, the influence of the pollutants on water taking safety is evaluated, the coming danger degree of the pollutants can be judged through the probability cloud picture, the monitoring of the direction is emphasized, and the time of measures is reserved as the performance of observation equipment is provided, and the monitoring range and the distance are farther;
(6) real-time monitoring and marking: carrying out real-time monitoring on pollutants on site, timely marking the pollutants entering an observation range of an engineering area, and mastering the positions, the directions and the time of the pollutants from a water intake;
(7) predicting the subsequent motion track of the marked particle: inputting the marked particle information into a particle mathematical model, predicting the subsequent motion track of the marked particle and calculating the time from the subsequent motion track to a water intake through the calculation of the particle mathematical model, providing early warning for engineering operation units, and taking emergency measures in time, wherein the emergency measures comprise allocating personnel and equipment in advance to improve the cleaning capacity or selecting different salvage schemes according to the types of pollutants.
The invention further adopts the following technical scheme:
preferably, the measured hydrological data in step 1 mainly include tide level, flow rate and flow direction data. The tidal level, flow velocity and flow direction hydrological data are selected, and the aim is to ensure that the mathematical model can truly simulate the tidal current characteristics of the engineering area through the verification of the parameters and further provide a reliable mathematical model basis for the motion simulation of the particles.
Preferably, the pollutants in step 2 refer to objects with no or weak self-swimming ability, including one or more of foam, straw, branches, plastics and aquatic weeds. According to the water intake safety accident, the pollutants of the type are more in types, and compared with the pollutants of the biological type with the autonomous swimming capability, the water flow following performance is good, so that the pollutants of the type can be simulated through a mathematical model.
Preferably, in step 3, a particle release point is arranged within a distance range of 10km and at intervals of 1km, with a direction of 22.5 degrees, with the intake of the coastal power plant as the center. The technical scheme has the advantages that the spatial position of the engineering sea area is discretized and accurate, and a foundation is provided for manufacturing a probability cloud picture of pollutants entering an open channel; in addition, according to the tidal current characteristics of different sea areas, the probability that pollutants outside the 10km range enter the open channel in one tidal current period is very small, so that the particle motion within the 10km range can be simulated to meet the requirement of early warning.
Preferably, the movement conditions of different points after releasing pollutants at the rising and stopping time, the falling and stopping time and the rising and stopping time are calculated in the step 4. Because the tidal current flow velocity has the characteristic of periodic change, the four moments are adopted to discretize the time and simulate the motion of particles at different moments.
The specific engineering embodiment is as follows:
(1) firstly, establishing a tidal current mathematical model of an engineering area, and verifying the accuracy of the model according to actually measured hydrological data;
(1.1) firstly establishing a power flow mathematical model aiming at a power plant project, wherein a computational grid is shown in figure 1, the length of the south and north directions of a region is about 54km, the east and west width is about 76km, and the outer boundary is as deep as-50 meters;
(1.2) verifying the power flow mathematical model;
according to the fact that the measured hydrological data mainly comprises tide level, flow rate and flow direction data, the verification results are shown in a figure 2 and a figure 3, it can be seen that the calculation results of the tide level, the flow rate and the flow direction are in good accordance with the measured data and meet the requirements of the specification (technical Specification for simulation test of Water transportation engineering JTS/T231 and 2021), and therefore the model can be used for calculating the tidal current of the engineering region.
(2) Establishing a particle tracking model: the floating pollutants entering the open channel are mainly plastics, foams, wood and the like, and the overall appearance of the pollutants is discrete, and the pollutants are generalized into particles in a mathematical model. The particle tracking model uses the Langevin equation to describe the migration motion of particles.
(3)
3.1) firstly taking an engineering water intake as a center, dividing the surrounding sea area into 16 directions, namely E, ENE and … i … ENE (every 22.5 degrees is a direction, wherein E is taken as a starting point, anticlockwise rotation is carried out, ENE is taken as an end point, and i is numbered from 1 to 16 correspondingly) as the direction of the occurrence of the pollutants;
3.2) arranging a plurality of pollutant source points at different positions away from the entrance in each azimuth, such as 1km, 2km, … j … nkm;
since the source of the pollutants can only be in the water body, assuming that the range of nkm around the project is all the water body, the number of the source positions of the pollutants is 16 n.
3.3) the above positions can be represented as;
assuming that the intake valve position is (X)0,Y0) The positions of each point are as follows:
and respectively calculating the motion trail of the pollutants at each position under the action of the tide and the water intake. And determining the probability of the contaminants entering the open channel according to the following method:
(4) calculating the motion tracks of the particles under the action of tide and open channel water taking after the pollutants are released at different points at different moments and different tide types according to a tide mathematical model and a particle tracking model, and counting the flux and distribution conditions of the particles passing through the position of a water intake trash rack; at the moment, the motion trail prediction of the pollutants is finished;
monitoring the pollutant flux of pollutants passing through a water intake trash rack; wherein the release of the pollutants lasts for 1 hour, and the accumulation of the pollutants under each working condition is evaluated by the pollutant flux percentage Pp, wherein:
assuming that the pollutant is located at X (i, j) and Y (i, j) under the k-th working condition, the pollutant amount of the pollutant point is continuously released for 1 hour, the pollutant amount released per second is pt, the total releasing amount is Tp, the motion track of the pollutant under the working condition is calculated, and the pollutant amount Ip entering the open channel is calculated, so that the proportion (probability) of the pollutant entering the open channel under the working condition is
Pp＝Ip/Tp
Pp-percent flux of contaminant through a section
Ip-flux of contaminants through a section
Tp: total amount of released contaminants
Wherein the statistical time of the pollutant flux is within 24h after the pollutant release time. The pollutant release position is schematically shown in fig. 5, and the motion track of the pollutant under the action of tide and open channel water taking can be visually seen through model calculation in the embodiment. Explaining the motion track after releasing the particles at the emergency moment in the WSW direction and 1km away from the dike head; referring specifically to fig. 5, the dotted lines represent the traces, the open dots represent the initial release position of the contaminants, and the filled dots represent the final position after 24 hours.
It can be observed from the figure that after the occurrence of the pollutants, the pollutants mainly move towards the west along with the rising tide and move towards the east along with the falling tide during the falling tide and move to the vicinity of the gate, and due to the action of water taking, the pollutants move towards the inside of the open channel and move towards the inside of the open channel close to the west dike side, so that the west dike side can be judged as a pollutant accumulation area, therefore, a garbage clearing and transporting device is mainly arranged at the west dike side, and the garbage clearing and transporting device is considered during design.
(5) According to the statistical results under various working conditions, making a probability cloud chart of pollutants entering an open channel, and evaluating the influence of the pollutants on water taking safety; in this embodiment, according to the above calculation method, the motion conditions of the pollutants under different working conditions are repeatedly calculated, and the probability cloud chart shown in fig. 7 is obtained through statistics.
As can be seen from the probability cloud chart, pollutants entering the open channel are mainly in the WSW-W direction, and the flux entering the open channel at different moments is greatly different, so that when the pollutants are more than 6km away from the dike head, almost no pollutants enter the open channel in a tide period. Therefore, during on-site observation, monitoring of pollutants in a range from WSW to W to 6km inwards is emphasized, and the monitoring range can be expanded appropriately according to the performance of on-site monitoring equipment.
(6) Real-time monitoring and marking: carrying out real-time monitoring on pollutants on site, timely marking the pollutants entering an observation range of an engineering area, and mastering the positions, the directions and the time of the pollutants from a water intake;
(7) timely recording the pollutants entering the observation range of the engineering area according to the real-time monitoring of the pollutants on site; and inputting the pollutant information into a particle mathematical model, predicting the subsequent movement track of the pollutant and calculating the time from the subsequent movement track to a water intake, and giving an early warning to a coastal power plant operation unit and taking emergency measures in time. The operation is embodied in the embodiment; by observing the condition of field pollution, the position and the time of the pollutant are input into the mathematical model, the motion track and the time of reaching the open channel can be obtained, early warning is provided for operation units of the coastal power plant, certain time can be reserved for emergency management in advance, and emergency measures are taken in time, including allocating personnel and equipment in advance to improve the cleaning capability, or selecting different salvage schemes according to the type of the pollutant.
According to the technical scheme, floating pollutants in the sea area near the water intake of the coastal power plant are marked in a field observation mode, the subsequent movement track is predicted, the probability of entering the open channel and the arrival time of the floating pollutants are calculated, early warning is directly provided for a cold source safety department of the coastal power plant, the risk of unit shutdown caused by pollutant accumulation of the coastal power plant is reduced, and the operation efficiency of the coastal power plant is improved.
The above description is only for the purpose of illustrating the preferred embodiments of the present invention and is not to be construed as limiting the invention, and any modifications, equivalents and improvements made within the spirit and principle of the present invention are intended to be included within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (5)
1. A marine pollutant motion trail prediction and coastal power plant water taking safety early warning method is characterized by comprising the following steps: the method comprises the following steps:
(1) establishing a tidal current mathematical model: firstly, establishing a large-range tidal current mathematical model according to the characteristics of a project area, wherein the distance between an open sea boundary and a project position is 50-100 km; the mathematical model is based on fluid incompressibility and Navier-Stokes equations and obeys Boussinesq assumption and hydrostatic pressure assumption; providing tide level boundary data by using tide forecasting software Chinatade, and verifying hydrologic actual measurement data to ensure the validity of various parameters of a mathematical model under the engineering sea area and ensure the accuracy of the tide mathematical model;
(2) establishing a particle tracking model: floating pollutants which are in a scattered state, have no self-swimming capability or weak self-swimming capability and enter the open channel are generalized into particles in a mathematical model; the particle tracking model adopts a Langevin equation to describe the migration motion of the particles;
(3) determining a particle source release point: respectively arranging a plurality of particle source release points in the surrounding sea area according to the distance and the direction by taking the engineering water intake as a center;
(4) counting the flux and distribution of the particles: calculating the motion tracks of the particles under the action of the tidal current and the open channel water taking after pollutants are released at different points at different moments and different tidal modes according to the tidal current mathematical model and the particle tracking model, and counting the flux and the distribution condition of the particles passing through the position of the water intake trash rack; at the moment, the pollutant movement track prediction is finished;
(5) making a probability cloud picture: according to the statistical result, a probability cloud picture of the pollutants entering the open channel is made, the influence of the pollutants on water taking safety is evaluated, the coming danger degree of the pollutants can be judged through the probability cloud picture, the monitoring of the direction is emphasized, and the time of measures is reserved as the performance of observation equipment is provided, and the monitoring range and the distance are farther;
(6) real-time monitoring and marking: carrying out real-time monitoring on pollutants on site, timely marking the pollutants entering an observation range of an engineering area, and mastering the positions, the directions and the time of the pollutants from a water intake;
(7) predicting the subsequent motion track of the marked particle: inputting the marked particle information into a particle mathematical model, predicting the subsequent motion track of the marked particle and calculating the time from the subsequent motion track to a water intake through the calculation of the particle mathematical model, providing early warning for engineering operation units, and taking emergency measures in time, wherein the emergency measures comprise allocating personnel and equipment in advance to improve the cleaning capacity or selecting different salvage schemes according to the types of pollutants.
2. The marine pollutant motion trail prediction and coastal power plant water intake safety early warning method according to claim 1, characterized in that: the measured hydrological data in step 1 mainly includes tide level, flow rate and flow direction data.
3. The marine pollutant motion trail prediction and coastal power plant water intake safety early warning method according to claim 1, characterized in that: the objects without self-swimming ability or weak self-swimming ability in the step 2 comprise one or more of foam, straws, branches, plastics and aquatic weeds.
4. The marine pollutant motion trail prediction and coastal power plant water intake safety early warning method according to claim 1, characterized in that: in step 3, a particle release point is arranged within the range of 10km from the engineering water intake as the center and at intervals of 1km, and 22.5 degrees is taken as a direction.
5. The marine pollutant motion trail prediction and coastal power plant water intake safety early warning method according to claim 1, characterized in that: and 4, calculating the motion conditions of different point positions after pollutants are released at the rising and stopping time, the falling and stopping time.
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| CN116468275A (en) * | 2023-04-21 | 2023-07-21 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Water intake risk assessment method considering disaster-causing biological movement characteristics and rhythm behaviors |
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| CN117113796A (en) * | 2023-10-24 | 2023-11-24 | 国家海洋局北海预报中心((国家海洋局青岛海洋预报台)(国家海洋局青岛海洋环境监测中心站)) | Large jellyfish medium-term drift set forecasting method considering autonomous movement |
| CN117113796B (en) * | 2023-10-24 | 2024-02-27 | 国家海洋局北海预报中心((国家海洋局青岛海洋预报台)(国家海洋局青岛海洋环境监测中心站)) | Large jellyfish medium-term drift set forecasting method considering autonomous movement |
| CN117251922A (en) * | 2023-11-09 | 2023-12-19 | 交通运输部天津水运工程科学研究所 | Arrangement method of floating guide dike at water intake of offshore power plant |
| CN117251922B (en) * | 2023-11-09 | 2024-01-23 | 交通运输部天津水运工程科学研究所 | Arrangement method of floating guide dike at water intake of offshore power plant |
| CN117892659A (en) * | 2024-01-29 | 2024-04-16 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Method for calculating relative concentration of water taking plugs of power plant under combined action of wave current |
| CN118428721A (en) * | 2024-04-26 | 2024-08-02 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Method for simulating migration and aggregation of water taking plugs of open channels of coastal power plants and evaluating water taking safety |
| CN118296715A (en) * | 2024-06-06 | 2024-07-05 | 中交天津港湾工程研究院有限公司 | Nuclear power plant area ponding simulation calculation traceability method, device, terminal and storage medium |
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