CN107067129A - Way and structures risk case possibility acquisition methods and system based on grid - Google Patents
Way and structures risk case possibility acquisition methods and system based on grid Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of way and structures risk case possibility acquisition methods based on grid and system, method includes：Read way and structures information, the attribute information of way and structures and the rail track information managed in steel railway truss information system；Rail track is divided into several unit grids；Unit grid, part and event are encoded；Data Integration is carried out to the attribute information of way and structures, the status information of way and structures is obtained；Set up way and structures risk case basic database；Determine risk case；It is determined that causing the Flood inducing factors that risk case occurs；Calculate the probability that each Flood inducing factors occur in each unit grid；Probability of happening weighting to all Flood inducing factors of risk case is averaged, and obtains the probability that risk case occurs in unit grid.The possibility that this method and system energy quantitative analysis way and structures risk case occur, and it is accurately positioned the particular location of occurrence risk event.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to way and structures management domain, more particularly to a kind of way and structures wind based on grid
Dangerous event possibility acquisition methods and system.
Background technology
The calculating of railway equipment risk case possibility is railway equipment security risk analysis and the important ring assessed
Section.At present, generally mainly calculated risk possibility is carried out using 3 kinds of methods.
1) expert survey.Railway department it is more using hold expert can form, analytical equipment failure, cause of accident and
Carry out risk analysis.Expert survey is that consulting and suggestion feedback repeatedly is carried out to the related expert of multidigit, to determine influence
The major risk factors of project, are made project risk Factors influencing table, then by relevant expert and staff to each risk because
Possibility and carry out qualitative estimation to the influence degree of project that element occurs in project life cycle, are finally carried out to application form
Statistical disposition, obtains the probability distribution and possible influence result of each risk factors.Conventional expert survey mainly has：Head
Brain storm method and Delphi method.
2) scenario analysis.Scenario analysis is by analyzing the following various scenes that may occur, and various scenes
The issuable method for influenceing to analyze risk.Scenario analysis can be used to the estimated mode that threatens and may occur with opportunity, and
And suitable for various risks, including the analysis of long-term and short term risk., can be from now in the case of the cycle is shorter and data are sufficient
There is the scene for being inferred to be likely to occur in scene.For the cycle is longer or during insufficient data, the validity of scenario analysis
Rely more on reasonable imagination.For some specific scenes, railway department administrative staff also use scenario analysis
Analyze some specific railway operation risks.
3) fault tree and ETA method.Failure tree analysis (FTA) is the failure analysis methods that a kind of figure is deduced, and is event
The logic reasoning of barrier event under certain condition.The reason for it forms the system failure (including hardware, software, environment, people
For factor etc.) analyzed, logic relation picture (i.e. fault tree) is drawn, so that it is determined that general with generation the reason for the system failure
Rate.ETA is a kind of time sequencing developed according to failure (accident), the possible consequence of inference by primary event,
Method so as to carry out dangerous matter sources and hazards identification.Using technologies such as fault tree and event trees come forecasting risk possibility,
When historical data can not obtain or be not abundant enough, by analysis system, activity, equipment or tissue and its correlation failure or into
Work(state infers possibility that risk occurs, is the conventional risk analysis method of the departments such as current railway locomotive, vehicle.
The problems with that the acquisition methods of existing way and structures risk case possibility are primarily present：
1) way and structures quantitative risk analysis is not enough.Existing way and structures risk analysis is more with qualitative analysis
Based on, lack quantitative analysis, main reason is that the characteristics of way and structures has long, big and continuous, way and structures
Risk case correlative factor, such as geology, meteorology environmental factor describe difficulty, it is difficult to quantification.
2) way and structures risk analysis lacks systematization, the analysis side of the suitable way and structures feature of standardization
Method and Information Technology Methods.
3) way and structures risk analysis positional precision is too low.The spatial position precision of way and structures risk analysis
Not high, common analysis object is Railway Bureau's (typically administering 7000~1000 kilometers of extended length main tracks), track division (general pipe
Have jurisdiction over 1000~1500 kilometers of extended length main tracks) or railroad section (general 20~100 kilometers of extended length main tracks), the line of analysis
Road scope is excessively wide in range, it is difficult to be pin-pointed to specific locus, risk resolution lack of targeted.
The content of the invention
It is an object of the invention to provide a kind of way and structures risk case possibility acquisition methods based on grid and
The possibility that system, this method and system energy quantitative analysis way and structures risk case occur, and it is accurately positioned generation wind
The particular location of the way and structures of dangerous event.
To achieve the above object, obtained the invention provides a kind of way and structures risk case possibility based on grid
Method is taken, including：
The way and structures information stored in steel railway truss information system is read, is defined as part；Read railway
The attribute information of the way and structures stored in work business management information system, is defined as event；Read steel railway truss letter
The rail track information stored in breath system；
By the rail track managed in the steel railway truss information system according to predetermined mesh generation regular partition
For several unit grids；
The unit grid, the part and the event are encoded；
Believed using the unit grid, three features of the part and time as according to the attribute to the way and structures
Breath carries out Data Integration, obtains the status information of way and structures；
Using unit grid, part and the event after the status information of the way and structures, coding as foundation, iron is set up
Road permanent way equipment risk case basic database；
The event that there are problems that security risk in the way and structures risk case basic database is determined
For risk case；
It is determined that causing the Flood inducing factors that the risk case occurs；
Calculate the probability that each Flood inducing factors occur in each unit grid；
Probability of happening weighting to all Flood inducing factors of the risk case is averaged, and obtains the risk thing
The probability that part occurs in the unit grid.
Optionally, it is described to draw the rail track managed in the steel railway truss information system according to predetermined grid
Divider is then divided into several unit grids, and specific rule include：
Carry out mesh generation from length to the rail track, and to the way and structures on the rail track from
Spatially carry out mesh generation；The unit grid is length mesh space shared by the rail track in the range of 200 meters.
Optionally, the risk case is with routine safety management information, safety problem storehouse, history accident case and correlation
Information based on safety regulation and method and determine, the risk case includes brittle fractures of rail, subgrade settlement, water damage, violating the regulations applied
Work industry, bad surrounding enviroment, level crossing accident, bad line facility quality, bridge structure serious plant disease, tunnel are seriously sick
Standby disease is built in evil, expansion rail track, work business mechanical movement accident and room.
Optionally, the determination causes the Flood inducing factors that the risk case occurs, and specifically includes：
Read characteristic information relevant with the risk case in the steel railway truss information system；
Judge whether the characteristic information can cause the risk case to occur；
If it is, determining that the characteristic information is Flood inducing factors.
Optionally, it is described to calculate the probability that each Flood inducing factors occur in each unit grid, specific bag
Include：
Flood inducing factors S occurs in k-th unit grid on M part in a period of time, is had in k-th unit grid
N number of part, then Flood inducing factors S be in the probability calculation formula that k-th unit grid occurs：
Optionally, it is described to calculate the probability that each Flood inducing factors occur in each unit grid, specific bag
Include：
Flood inducing factors S is divided into L grade { R by the order of severity1,...,RL, i-th of a period of time interior Flood inducing factors S
Grade RiThe M in k-th unit gridiOccur on individual part, have N number of part in k-th unit grid, Flood inducing factors S is the
The probability that K unit grid occurs can be as follows using following calculation formula：WhereinαiReflection is caused
I-th of grade R of calamity factor SiInfluence degree.
Optionally, it is described to calculate the probability that each Flood inducing factors occur in each unit grid, specific bag
Include：
In k-th unit grid, the span of Flood inducing factors S in a period of time is divided into L grade
{v1,...,vL, L grade is calculated according to equipment state changing rule model Weibull Function and distinguishes corresponding L generally
Rate：{p1,...,pL, according to the grade v of S valuesiDetermine the probability that Flood inducing factors S occurs in k-th unit gridFor pi。
Optionally, the computational methods for the probability that the risk case occurs in the unit grid include：
Risk case Z has Q Flood inducing factors { S1,...,SQ, according to each Flood inducing factors SiHair in unit grid K
Raw probabilityProbability of happening of the calculation risk event Z in unit grid K be：Wherein ωiFor weighting system
Number,Reflect Flood inducing factors SiInfluence degree.
Optionally, it is described that the unit grid, part and event are encoded, specifically include：
Unit grid is encoded, unit grid coding is from left to right followed successively by line code, the other code of row, position generation
Code and grid sequence code；The line code, the other code of row and steel railway truss information system center line numbering are consistent；Institute's rheme
Put the milimeter number for the starting point mileage that code is mesh generation；The grid sequence code is the serial number of grid in a whole kilometer；
Part is encoded, it is small that component coding is from left to right followed successively by unit grid coding, the big category code of part, part
Category code and part sequence code；The part sequence code is the serial number of same base part in same unit grid；
Event is encoded, event code is from left to right followed successively by the big category code of component coding, event and event group
Code.
System is obtained present invention also offers a kind of way and structures risk case possibility based on grid, including：
Data acquisition module, for gather steel railway truss information system storage rail track, way and structures,
The attribute information of way and structures and the attribute information after time；
Processing module, for the rail track to be divided into unit grid, it is part to define the way and structures,
The attribute information for defining the way and structures is event, the unit grid, part and event is encoded, with sky
Between, special topic and three features of time be according to the grid, part and event carry out Data Integration；
Way and structures risk case basic data memory module, the number for storing the data collecting module collected
According to the data after being handled with the processing module；
Way and structures risk knowledge memory module, for determining that the event that there are problems that security risk is risk
Event, and store the risk case；For analyzing the factor for judging to cause the risk case to occur, Flood inducing factors are determined,
And store the Flood inducing factors；
Risk case possibility computing module, sends out for calculating each Flood inducing factors in each unit grid
The probability that raw probability and the risk case occur in the unit grid.
The specific embodiment provided according to the present invention, the invention discloses following technique effect：
The present invention be from way and structures management information system (Permanent Way of Railway MIS,
PWMIS way and structures information and the attribute data information of way and structures are obtained in), due to steel railway truss information
The data of system are that dynamic updates, it is ensured that the real-time that way and structures risk case possibility is calculated, and improve iron
The efficiency of road permanent way equipment risk analysis.
The present invention will grow up continuous rail track according to predetermined mesh generation regular partition into less track section,
Each section unit is referred to as unit grid, mainly using unit grid as research unit, therefore, it can by determining unit grid
Mode determines the particular location that risk case occurs, and improves the locus of determination way and structures risk time generation
Precision.
The present invention by obtained from PWMIS way and structures information and way and structures attribute data information and
The unit grid of division carries out data encoding and Data Integration, risk case and its Flood inducing factors is determined, to the iron of unit grid
The probability of happening of road permanent way equipment risk case and its Flood inducing factors carries out dynamic calculation, realizes way and structures risk thing
The quantitative analysis of part possibility, the problem of solving the quantitative description hardly possible of way and structures risk factors description, realizes iron
Road permanent way equipment safety risk management is from qualitative description to the progress of quantitative calculating.
The method and system provided using invention, manager can quickly calculate each risk thing on administered rail track
The probability of happening of part and its Flood inducing factors in all grids, screening excessive risk event and high probability Flood inducing factors, pay close attention to
The higher risk case of probability of happening and the higher Flood inducing factors of probability of happening, and to being carried out in the unit grid where them
Risk-warning and risk resolution, improve the specific aim of way and structures Risk-warning and risk resolution.
Brief description of the drawings
In order to illustrate more clearly about the embodiment of the present invention or technical scheme of the prior art, below will be to institute in embodiment
The accompanying drawing needed to use is briefly described, it should be apparent that, drawings in the following description are only some implementations of the present invention
Example, for those of ordinary skill in the art, without having to pay creative labor, can also be according to these accompanying drawings
Obtain other accompanying drawings.
The flow for the way and structures risk case possibility acquisition methods based on grid that Fig. 1 provides for the present invention
Figure；
Fig. 2 is grid coding pie graph in the present invention；
Fig. 3 is component coding pie graph in the present invention；
Fig. 4 is event code pie graph in the present invention；
Fig. 5 is the integration graph of a relation of unit grid, part and event in the present invention；
Fig. 6 obtains the structural frames of system for the way and structures risk case possibility based on grid that the present invention is provided
Figure.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with the accompanying drawing in the embodiment of the present invention, the technical scheme in the embodiment of the present invention is carried out clear, complete
Site preparation is described, it is clear that described embodiment is only a part of embodiment of the invention, rather than whole embodiments.It is based on
Embodiment in the present invention, it is every other that those of ordinary skill in the art are obtained under the premise of creative work is not made
Embodiment, belongs to the scope of protection of the invention.
It is an object of the invention to provide a kind of way and structures risk case possibility acquisition methods based on grid and
The possibility that system, this method and system energy quantitative analysis way and structures risk case occur, and it is accurately positioned generation wind
The particular location of the way and structures of dangerous event.
In order to facilitate the understanding of the purposes, features and advantages of the present invention, it is below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific real
Applying mode, the present invention is further detailed explanation.
The invention provides a kind of way and structures risk case possibility acquisition methods based on grid, including：
Step 101：The way and structures information stored in steel railway truss information system is read, is defined as part；
The attribute information of the way and structures stored in steel railway truss information system is read, is defined as event；Read railway work
The rail track information stored in business management information system；
Step 102：By the rail track managed in steel railway truss information system according to predetermined mesh generation rule
It is divided into several unit grids；
Step 103：Unit grid, part and event are encoded；
Step 104：Entered using unit grid, three features of part and time as according to the attribute information to way and structures
Row Data Integration, obtains the status information of way and structures；
Step 105：Using unit grid, part and the event after the status information of way and structures, coding as foundation, build
Vertical way and structures risk case basic database；
Step 106：The event that there are problems that security risk in way and structures risk case basic database is determined
For risk case；
Step 107：It is determined that causing the Flood inducing factors that risk case occurs；
Step 108：Calculate the probability that each Flood inducing factors occur in each unit grid；
Step 109：Probability of happening weighting to all Flood inducing factors of risk case is averaged, and is obtained risk case and is existed
The probability occurred in unit grid.
To be grown up in the present embodiment continuous rail track according to predetermined mesh generation regular partition into several units
Grid, mainly using unit grid as research unit, therefore, it can determine risk case by way of determining unit grid
Particular location, improve determine the way and structures risk time occur locus precision.And the present embodiment will
Way and structures information and the attribute data information of way and structures are obtained from PWMIS and the unit grid of division enters
Row data encoding and Data Integration, determine risk case and its Flood inducing factors, to the way and structures risk thing of unit grid
The probability of happening of part and its Flood inducing factors carries out dynamic calculation, realizes quantitative point of way and structures risk case possibility
Analysis, the problem of solving the quantitative description hardly possible of way and structures risk factors description, realizes way and structures safety wind
Danger management is from qualitative description to the progress of quantitative calculating.
The acquisition methods that the present invention is provided are described in detail below：
For above-mentioned steps 101-105：
(1) rail track mesh generation
Mesh generation is carried out from length to rail track, and it is enterprising from space to the way and structures on rail track
Row mesh generation.It is by continuous rail track discretization, i.e., long by 200 meters the need for according to way and structures state description
Degree is split, and forms many small track sections, and each track section is referred to as unit grid.For example：Rail track is divided
For K unit grid (1,2 ..., k ..., K), the double track railway of 950 kilometers of a length of business is administered by such as certain Railway Bureau, and line is compiled
Number it is " 0086 ", up-downgoing by 200 meters of length division unit grids, is divided into 9500 unit grids altogether respectively.
Way and structures in unit grid is referred to as part, for company of the length more than 200 meters on space characteristics
Continuous equipment or equipment of growing up, across multiple grids, it is necessary to be divided into multiple parts, are subordinate to different units grid, are conducive to equipment shape
State subdivision, disease positioning.Be conducive to improving the accuracy of risk case positioning.
Using the attribute information of the state of event description way and structures, i.e. way and structures, the one of reflection part
The state of kind, can be obtained by inspection or detection means, also including the various administration behaviours relevant with part.Event can reflect portion
The state feature of part at a time, through overwriting, can be followed the trail of, convenient to carry out equipment control.Kind of event is numerous, content is huge
It is miscellaneous, it can be divided according to the design of equipment, three different phases of construction and operation, each stage in recording-member whole life cycle
The status data information of generation.
(2) way and structures grid, part, event attribute description
For description way and structures state, attribute is carried out to the related unit grid of way and structures, part, event
Design, is standardized to unit grid, equipment, the property of event or feature, to facilitate carry out computer management.
Unit grid, part, the attribute data of event derive from steel railway truss information system (PWMIS), the system
In the operation of railway department for many years, data content enriches, and substantially meets way and structures risk analysis needs, by setting up
With PWMIS data-interface, these data messages are obtained.
(3) unit grid, part, the coding of event
In order to which way and structures and its attribute data are managed collectively and integrated, way and structures is compiled
Code, code Design, including grid coding design, component coding design and event code design are carried out based on grid.
Grid coding is designed：Grid coding is as shown in Fig. 2 unit grid coding is from left to right followed successively by line code, OK
Other code, position code and grid sequence code；Line code, the other code of row and steel railway truss information system center line numbering one
Cause, line code is set to 4, and the other code of row is set to 1；Position code is the milimeter number of the starting point mileage of mesh generation, according to
The length of rail track, position code can be set to 4；Grid sequence code is the serial number of grid in a whole kilometer, can be set to 1
Position, therefore the coding of grid is 10 altogether.
Component coding is designed：Component coding is as shown in figure 3, component coding is from left to right followed successively by unit grid coding, portion
The big category code of part, the small category code of part and part sequence code；The big category code of equipment can be set to 2, and the small category code of equipment can be set to 2
Position；Sequence code is the serial number of same base part in same unit grid, can be set to 2；Therefore component coding is 16 altogether.
Event code is designed：Event code as shown in figure 4, event code to be from left to right followed successively by component coding, event big
Category code and the small category code of event；Event major class coding can be set to 2, and the small category code of event can be set to 2；Event code is altogether
20.
(4) each data message of way and structures carries out Data Integration
On the basis of the unit grid coding, component coding, event code of way and structures, compiled based on unit grid
Code, it is (grid, inner from space for the way and structures attribute data from steel railway truss information system (PWMIS)
Journey), the different dimension dimension such as way and structures and time be associated, realize Data Integration, obtain way and structures
Status information, as shown in Figure 5.As needed, extract a certain locality (unit grid, mileage), a certain special time or
The attribute data information of way and structures in period, is used as the data foundation of risk analysis.
(5) foundation of way and structures risk case basic database
By the status information of way and structures, with the unit grid after the status information of way and structures, coding, portion
Part and event are foundation, based on space characteristics, thematic feature and the big feature of temporal characteristics three, by unit grid, part, event weight
Newly combed, form the way and structures risk case basic database (abbreviation towards way and structures risk analysis
" work business risk basic database ").
Wherein, space characteristics are the skies being made up of mileage, some unit grids, way and structures own form size etc.
Between region.Thematic feature refers to the non-space architectural feature of way and structures, refers specifically to way and structures in full Life Cycle
The status information that each stage itself produces in phase.A such as one steel rail, its installation site, length is referred to as space characteristics,
Its weight, density, date of manufacture, manufacturer, installed date, train are non-by gross weight, abrasion situation, hurt situation etc.
The feature in space is all thematic feature, and its abrasion, hurt situation are periodic detections, and abrasion cause rail geometry to occur
Change.Temporal characteristics refer to way and structures from the random time in design, construction and operation Life cycle.
For step 106-109：
(1) way and structures risk case is standardized
Risk case be with routine safety management information, safety problem storehouse, history accident case and associated safety rule and
Information based on method and determine, by being investigated to safety problem and hidden danger comprehensively, determine way and structures risk thing
Part, and be standardized, 12 kinds of way and structures risk cases are established, risk case includes brittle fractures of rail, subgrade settlement, water
Evil, construction operation, bad surrounding enviroment, level crossing accident, bad line facility quality, bridge structure serious plant disease, tunnel violating the regulations
Standby disease is built in road serious plant disease, expansion rail track, work business mechanical movement accident and room, is shown in Table 1.
Table 1
(2) the Flood inducing factors standardization of way and structures risk case
For above-mentioned 12 class way and structures risk case, the Flood inducing factors of way and structures risk case are determined
Method is specifically included：
Read characteristic information relevant with risk case in steel railway truss information system；This feature information can be according to
Human factor, the factor of thing, management factors and environmental factor classification；
Whether judging characteristic information can cause risk case；
If it is, determining that this feature information is Flood inducing factors.
Factor analysis, pin are carried out respectively according to the class factor of human factor, the factor of thing, management factors and environmental factor etc. four
To a certain risk case, the Flood inducing factors of risk case are determined, and are standardized.For 12 risk cases, set up respectively
The Flood inducing factors list of each risk case.By taking " brittle fractures of rail " risk case as an example, table 2 causes for " brittle fractures of rail " risk case
Calamity factor list.
Table 2
(3) the Flood inducing factors possibility of way and structures risk case is calculated in unit grid
Based on the data message of steel railway truss information system, each Flood inducing factors is calculated in each grid
Probability of happening, can use following three kinds of basic calculations：
1. the frequency based on the interior generation for a period of time of risk Flood inducing factors calculates each Flood inducing factors in each unit grid
The probability of middle generation, be specially：
Flood inducing factors S occurs in k-th unit grid on M part in a period of time, is had in k-th unit grid
N number of part, then Flood inducing factors S be in the probability calculation formula that k-th unit grid occurs：
2. based on risk Flood inducing factors, the grade of interior generation and frequency calculate each Flood inducing factors in each list for a period of time
The probability occurred in first grid, is specifically included：
Flood inducing factors S is divided into L grade { R by the order of severity1,...,RL, i-th of a period of time interior Flood inducing factors S
Grade RiThe M in k-th unit gridiOccur on individual part, have N number of part in k-th unit grid, Flood inducing factors S is the
The probability that K unit grid occurs can be as follows using following calculation formula：WhereinαiReflection is caused
I-th of grade R of calamity factor SiInfluence degree.
3. each Flood inducing factors of numerical division rating calculation based on risk Flood inducing factors occur in each unit grid
Probability, specifically include：
In k-th unit grid, the span of Flood inducing factors S in a period of time is divided into L grade
{v1,...,vL, L grade is calculated according to equipment state changing rule model Weibull Function and distinguishes corresponding L generally
Rate：{p1,...,pL, according to the grade v of S valuesiDetermine the probability that Flood inducing factors S occurs in k-th unit gridFor pi。
(4) way and structures risk case possibility is calculated in unit grid
The computational methods for the probability that risk case occurs in unit grid include：
Risk case Z has Q Flood inducing factors { S1,...,SQ, according to each Flood inducing factors SiHair in unit grid K
Raw probabilityProbability of happening of the calculation risk event Z in unit grid K be：Wherein ωiFor weighting system
Number,Reflect Flood inducing factors SiInfluence degree.
With reference to specific calculated example, describing way and structures risk case of the present invention based on grid in detail may
Property acquisition methods.
(1) the Flood inducing factors possibility occurrence of brittle fractures of rail risk case is calculated in unit grid
Up K700+200~the K700+400 of access line unit grid, grid numbering is " 0086107001 ", is referred to as
Unit grid G.
1) Flood inducing factors " G01101 rail weldings ' professional "
Key data source：Weldering rail work area Check table, weld seam machine account in steel railway truss information system (PWMIS)
And construction plan table.
The average score of the examination c=85 of technology of weldering rail work area operating personnel, and time interval T (values 1 can therefrom be obtained
Individual month) in steel rail welding line of the work area in unit grid G go out to hinder number and always weld number, calculate weld seam and go out to hinder rate p1:
The Flood inducing factors possibility occurrence is calculated as follows in unit grid G：
Wherein 0.1 and 0.9 is proportionality coefficient.
2) Flood inducing factors " G01204 rail defects and failureses "
Data source (takes in the rail defects and failures evaluation form of steel railway truss information system (PWMIS) in time interval T
Value 1 month) in, the quantity of rail defects and failures is respectively slight wound n in unit grid G1=1, slight wound development n2=1, severely injured n3=
0, total rail quantity is 16 in grid, and the probability that Flood inducing factors " G01204 rail defects and failureses " occur in grid uses formula
(2) computational methods：
Wherein 0.1,0.15 and 0.75 are proportionality coefficient.
3) Flood inducing factors " G01301 sharp radius curves location "
Data source curve table in steel railway truss information system (PWMIS), according to unit grid G sweep
R=300 meters, calculate the Flood inducing factors probability of happening：
Wherein, general fast railway r0350 meters of value, high-speed railway r02800 meters of value.
(2) railway track of unit grid fracture risk case possibility occurrence calculating
Standardized according to Flood inducing factors, utilize the railway from steel railway truss information system (PWMIS) of nearly 1 month
Permanent way equipment creation data, calculate brittle fractures of rail risk case in unit grid G 18 Flood inducing factors occur probability be
Pi, i=1 ..., 18, and the proportionality coefficient shared by each Flood inducing factors is chosen for ωi, i=1 ..., 18,It is shown in Table in detail
3, table 3 is unit grid G brittle fractures of rail risk case Flood inducing factors probability of happening lists.
Table 3
According to table 3 and formulaBrittle fractures of rail risk case possibility occurrence is calculated such as in unit grid G
Under：
It can be seen that, the present invention realizes the quantitative analysis of way and structures risk case possibility so that risk case is sentenced
It is disconnected more directly perceived.
System, such as Fig. 6 are obtained present invention also offers a kind of way and structures risk case possibility based on grid
Shown, the way and structures risk case possibility, which obtains system, to be included：
Data acquisition module 601, rail track, railway work for gathering the storage of steel railway truss information system 600
Be engaged in equipment, the attribute information of way and structures and attribute information after time；Wherein, the data of data acquisition module 601 are adopted
Collect interface foundation and PWMIS data-interface, obtain the data message of PWMIS databases, including Equipment Foundations data, equipment
Defect information, equipment state inspection detection monitoring information, equipment repair information, disaster information, accident information, operating personnel's letter
Breath, device management information, and the basic data information such as circuit surrounding enviroment information (landform, geology, meteorology etc.).
Processing module 602, for rail track to be divided into unit grid, definition way and structures is part, definition
The attribute information of way and structures is event, and unit grid, part and event are encoded, with space, special topic and time
Three features are to carry out Data Integration according to grid, part and event.
Way and structures risk case basic data memory module 603, the number gathered for data storage acquisition module
According to the data after being handled with processing module；Processing module 602 obtains the data of PWMIS databases, and carries out at gridded data
Reason, including circuit mesh generation, according to permanent way equipment risk case and cause calamity standardization to re-start permanent way equipment attribute and retouch
State, carry out grid, the coding of part and event, and the different dimension such as space (grid, mileage), equipment and time carry out it is whole
Close, form the way and structures attribute database towards way and structures risk analysis, i.e. way and structures risk thing
Part basic data memory module 603.
Way and structures risk knowledge memory module 604, for determining that the event that there are problems that security risk is risk
Event, and store risk case；For analyzing the factor for judging to cause risk case to occur, Flood inducing factors are determined, and store cause
The calamity factor；Way and structures risk knowledge memory module 604 is the core of the system, including permanent way equipment risk case and cause
Calamity factor standard, and permanent way equipment risk case and its Flood inducing factors possibility occurrence computation model.
Risk case possibility computing module 605, occurs for calculating each Flood inducing factors in each unit grid
The probability that probability and risk case occur in unit grid.Risk case possibility computing module 605 mainly includes element mesh
Lattice way and structures risk case Flood inducing factors possibility is calculated and unit grid way and structures risk case possibility
Calculate two functions.
The embodiment of each in this specification is described by the way of progressive, and what each embodiment was stressed is and other
Between the difference of embodiment, each embodiment identical similar portion mutually referring to.For system disclosed in embodiment
For, because it is corresponded to the method disclosed in Example, so description is fairly simple, related part is said referring to method part
It is bright.
Specific case used herein is set forth to the principle and embodiment of the present invention, and above example is said
The bright method and its core concept for being only intended to help to understand the present invention；Simultaneously for those of ordinary skill in the art, foundation
The thought of the present invention, will change in specific embodiments and applications.In summary, this specification content is not
It is interpreted as limitation of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of way and structures risk case possibility acquisition methods based on grid, it is characterised in that including：
The way and structures information stored in steel railway truss information system is read, is defined as part；Read railway
The attribute information of the way and structures stored in management information system, is defined as event；Read steel railway truss information system
The rail track information stored in system；
If being according to predetermined mesh generation regular partition by the rail track managed in the steel railway truss information system
Dry unit grid；
The unit grid, the part and the event are encoded；
Entered using the unit grid, three features of the part and time as according to the attribute information to the way and structures
Row Data Integration, obtains the status information of way and structures；
Using unit grid, part and the event after the status information of the way and structures, coding as foundation, railway work is set up
Business equipment Risk event base database；
The event that there are problems that security risk in the way and structures risk case basic database is defined as wind
Dangerous event；
It is determined that causing the Flood inducing factors that the risk case occurs；
Calculate the probability that each Flood inducing factors occur in each unit grid；
Probability of happening weighting to all Flood inducing factors of the risk case is averaged, and is obtained the risk case and is existed
The probability occurred in the unit grid.
2. according to the method described in claim 1, it is characterised in that described to be managed in the steel railway truss information system
Rail track according to predetermined mesh generation regular partition be several unit grids, specific rule include：
Carry out mesh generation from length to the rail track, and to the way and structures on the rail track from space
Upper carry out mesh generation；The unit grid is length mesh space shared by the rail track in the range of 200 meters.
3. according to the method described in claim 1, it is characterised in that the risk case is with routine safety management information, peace
Information based on full problem base, history accident case and associated safety rule and method and determine, the risk case includes steel
Rail fractures, subgrade settlement, water damage, construction operation violating the regulations, bad surrounding enviroment, level crossing accident, line facility quality are bad, bridge
Standby disease is built in structural serious plant disease, tunnel serious plant disease, expansion rail track, work business mechanical movement accident and room.
4. according to the method described in claim 1, it is characterised in that the determination cause the cause calamity that the risk case occurs because
Son, is specifically included：
Read characteristic information relevant with the risk case in the steel railway truss information system；
Judge whether the characteristic information can cause the risk case to occur；
If it is, determining that the characteristic information is Flood inducing factors.
5. according to the method described in claim 1, it is characterised in that described to calculate each Flood inducing factors in each list
The probability occurred in first grid, is specifically included：
Flood inducing factors S occurs in k-th unit grid on M part in a period of time, is had in k-th unit grid N number of
Part, then Flood inducing factors S be in the probability calculation formula that k-th unit grid occurs：
6. according to the method described in claim 1, it is characterised in that described to calculate each Flood inducing factors in each list
The probability occurred in first grid, is specifically included：
Flood inducing factors S is divided into L grade { R by the order of severity1,...,RL, a period of time interior Flood inducing factors S i-th of grade
RiThe M in k-th unit gridiOccur on individual part, N number of part is had in k-th unit grid, Flood inducing factors S is in k-th
The probability that unit grid occurs can be as follows using following calculation formula：WhereinαiReflection causes calamity
I-th of grade R of factor SiInfluence degree.
7. according to the method described in claim 1, it is characterised in that described to calculate each Flood inducing factors in each list
The probability occurred in first grid, is specifically included：
In k-th unit grid, the span of Flood inducing factors S in a period of time is divided into L grade { v1,...,vL,
L grade is calculated according to equipment state changing rule model Weibull Function and distinguishes corresponding L probability：{p1,...,
pL, according to the grade v of S valuesiDetermine the probability that Flood inducing factors S occurs in k-th unit gridFor pi。
8. the method according to claim 5 or 6 or 7, it is characterised in that the risk case is sent out in the unit grid
The computational methods of raw probability include：
Risk case Z has Q Flood inducing factors { S1,...,SQ, according to each Flood inducing factors SiGeneration in unit grid K is general
RateProbability of happening of the calculation risk event Z in unit grid K be：Wherein ωiFor weight coefficient,Reflect Flood inducing factors SiInfluence degree.
9. according to the method described in claim 1, it is characterised in that described that the unit grid, part and event are compiled
Code, is specifically included：
Unit grid is encoded, unit grid coding be from left to right followed successively by line code, the other code of row, position code and
Grid sequence code；The line code, the other code of row and steel railway truss information system center line numbering are consistent；The position generation
Code is the milimeter number of the starting point mileage of mesh generation；The grid sequence code is the serial number of grid in a whole kilometer；
Part is encoded, component coding is from left to right followed successively by unit grid coding, the big category code of part, part group generation
Code and part sequence code；The part sequence code is the serial number of same base part in same unit grid；
Event is encoded, event code is from left to right followed successively by the big category code of component coding, event and the small category code of event.
10. a kind of way and structures risk case possibility based on grid obtains system, it is characterised in that including：
Data acquisition module, rail track, way and structures, railway for gathering the storage of steel railway truss information system
The attribute information of permanent way equipment and the attribute information after time；
Processing module, for the rail track to be divided into unit grid, it is part, definition to define the way and structures
The attribute information of the way and structures is event, and the unit grid, part and event are encoded, with space, specially
Topic and three features of time are to carry out Data Integration according to the grid, part and event；
Way and structures risk case basic data memory module, for store the data collecting module collected data and
Data after the processing module processing；
Way and structures risk knowledge memory module, for determining that the event that there are problems that security risk is risk thing
Part, and store the risk case；For analyzing the factor for judging to cause the risk case to occur, Flood inducing factors are determined, and
Store the Flood inducing factors；
Risk case possibility computing module, occurs for calculating each Flood inducing factors in each unit grid
The probability that probability and the risk case occur in the unit grid.
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