CN114506756A - Target system function safety grading method, device, equipment and storage medium - Google Patents

Abstract

The embodiment of the application provides a method, a device, equipment and a storage medium for grading the functional safety of a target system. Wherein the method comprises the following steps: acquiring the probability grade of each subsystem in the target system; determining a first probability of the target system based on the probability level of each subsystem in the target system; determining a probability of occurrence of an intermediate event of the target system based on a hypothesis; determining a second probability f of the target system according to the first probability of the target system and the occurrence probability of the intermediate event of the target system; obtaining probabilities f of different systems during a first time period_{Allow for}(ii) a According to the second probability f of the target system and the probability f of the different system in the first time period_{Allow for}Determining the risk reduction factor RRF ═ f/f_{Allow for}(ii) a And determining the safety integrity level of the target system according to the risk reduction factor.

Description

Target system function safety grading method, device, equipment and storage medium

Technical Field

The present application relates to the field of public security, and relates to, but is not limited to, a method, an apparatus, a device, and a storage medium for security level determination of a target system function.

Background

With the rapid development of urbanization, public safety is also becoming more and more important. If along with the increase of elevator quantity, the structure of elevator also becomes complicated gradually, and in all kinds of accidents of elevator, the proportion of the trouble that elevator door system accounts for is the biggest, and is also great to the danger that causes the people, therefore seeks effective, reliable elevator door system safety assessment method and has important meaning.

In recent years, functional safety is widely applied to the fields of chemical engineering, petroleum, electronic equipment and the like by a reasonable technical concept, a scientific evaluation system and an optimized management method, and in the existing functional safety research, although a hierarchical-fuzzy method is used for representing the risk level of the functional safety quantitatively, the degree of acceptable risk standard deviation of the functional safety risk distance is not considered. Therefore, the method introduces the view of functional safety into the target system, can accurately calculate the risk reduction factor of the target system, and quantitatively determines the safety integrity level of the target system.

Disclosure of Invention

In view of this, embodiments of the present application provide a method, an apparatus, a device, and a storage medium for security level determination of a target system function.

The technical scheme of the embodiment of the application is realized as follows:

in a first aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a target system security rating method, where the method includes: acquiring the probability level of each subsystem in the target system; determining a first probability of the target system based on the probability level of each subsystem in the target system; determining a probability of occurrence of an intermediate event of the target system based on a hypothesis; determining a second probability f of the target system according to the first probability of the target system and the occurrence probability of the intermediate event of the target system; obtaining probabilities f of different systems during a first time period_{Allow for}(ii) a Second summary according to the target systemThe rate f is different from the probability f of the different system over a first time period_{Allow for}Determining the risk reduction factor RRF ═ f/f_{Allow for}(ii) a And determining the safety integrity level of the target system according to the risk reduction factor.

In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a target system security rating apparatus, including: the first acquisition module is used for acquiring the probability grade of each subsystem in the target system; a first determining module for determining a first probability of the target system based on the probability level of each subsystem in the target system; a second obtaining module for determining a probability of occurrence of an intermediate event of the target system based on a hypothesis; a second determining module, configured to determine a second probability f of the target system according to the first probability of the target system and an occurrence probability of an intermediate event of the target system; a third obtaining module for obtaining the probability f of different systems in the first time period_{Allow for}(ii) a A third determination module for a second probability f of the target system and a probability f of the different system over a first time period_{Allow for}Determining the risk reduction factor RRF ═ f/f_{Allow for}(ii) a And the fourth determining module is used for determining the safety integrity level of the target system according to the risk reduction factor.

In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a target system security rating device, where the device includes: a memory storing a computer program operable on the processor and a processor implementing the steps of the method when executing the computer program.

In a fourth aspect, the present application provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, and the computer program, when executed by a processor, implements the steps in the method.

Therefore, in the embodiment of the application, the view point of functional safety is introduced into the target system, the safety integrity level of the target system is determined quantitatively, and the method is more accurate compared with the traditional qualitative method; the problem of difficulty in acquiring the reliability data of the target system can be solved more reasonablyThe analysis result is more objective; according to the probability f of the different systems in a first time period_{Allow for}The risk reduction factor of the target system can be accurately calculated, and the required safety protection measures can be determined; optimization recommendations may be added based on the safety integrity level of the target system.

Drawings

In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application, the drawings needed to be used in the description of the embodiments are briefly introduced below, it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present application, and other drawings can be obtained by those skilled in the art without inventive efforts, wherein:

fig. 1 is a schematic flowchart of a target system security classification method according to an embodiment of the present disclosure;

fig. 2 is a block diagram of the reliability of an elevator door system provided by an embodiment of the present application;

FIG. 3 is a Markov state transition diagram provided by an embodiment of the present application;

FIG. 4a is a graph illustrating the effect of different maintenance rates on the steady state availability of an A-ladder car door system and landing door system provided by an embodiment of the present application;

FIG. 4b is a graph illustrating the effect of different failure rates of the A-ladder car door system and landing door system on the steady state availability of the system according to the embodiments of the present disclosure;

figure 5a is a schematic representation of a trigonometric membership function for a failure class of an elevator door system according to an embodiment of the present application;

figure 5b is a schematic representation of a trigonometric membership function for the maintenance class of elevator door systems provided by embodiments of the present application;

fig. 6 is a schematic structural diagram of a target system security classification device according to an embodiment of the present disclosure.

Detailed Description

In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present application clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present application, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are some embodiments of the present application, but not all embodiments. The following examples are intended to illustrate the present application but are not intended to limit the scope of the present application. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present application.

In the following description, reference is made to "some embodiments" which describe a subset of all possible embodiments, but it is understood that "some embodiments" may be the same subset or different subsets of all possible embodiments, and may be combined with each other without conflict.

It should be noted that the terms "first \ second \ third" referred to in the embodiments of the present application are only used for distinguishing similar objects and do not represent a specific ordering for the objects, and it should be understood that "first \ second \ third" may be interchanged under specific ordering or sequence if allowed, so that the embodiments of the present application described herein can be implemented in other orders than illustrated or described herein.

It will be understood by those within the art that, unless otherwise defined, all terms (including technical and scientific terms) used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which embodiments of this application belong. It will be further understood that terms, such as those defined in commonly used dictionaries, should be interpreted as having a meaning that is consistent with their meaning in the context of the prior art and will not be interpreted in an idealized or overly formal sense unless expressly so defined herein.

Before further detailed description of the embodiments of the present application, terms and expressions referred to in the embodiments of the present application are explained, and the terms and expressions referred to in the embodiments of the present application are applicable to the following explanations:

the delphi method, also called expert survey, was originally implemented by the united states landes corporation in 1946, and is essentially a feedback anonymity letter inquiry method, whose general flow is to characterize the opinions of experts on the problem to be predicted, to perform sorting, induction and statistics, to feed back to each expert anonymously, to solicit opinions again, to be concentrated, and to feed back again until a consistent opinion is obtained.

Fig. 1 is a schematic flowchart of a target system security classification method provided in an embodiment of the present application, where as shown in fig. 1, the method at least includes the following steps:

step S110, obtaining the probability grade of each subsystem in the target system.

In some embodiments, the target system may be an elevator door system; the subsystem can be at least one of a door machine controller, a motor, a car door synchronous transmission device and a car door actuating mechanism in the car door system, and at least one of a linkage device, a landing door synchronous transmission device, a landing door self-closing device and a landing door actuating mechanism in the landing door system; the probability grade can be a failure probability grade and a maintenance probability grade.

In the embodiment of the application, the elevator of a certain cell in H city is taken as a case and is recorded as an A elevator, and an expert performs control on each subsystem F in the A elevator_inThe failure probability of the ladder A is scored to obtain a failure probability grade evaluation table of the ladder A, and the failure probability grade evaluation table is shown in a table 1; expert for each subsystem F in the A elevator_inThe maintenance probability of step (a) is scored to obtain a maintenance probability grade evaluation table of the ladder A system, as shown in table 2.

TABLE 1A ladder System Fault probability grade evaluation Table

Sub-system	Expert	1	Expert 2	Expert 3	Expert 4
						F11	4	6	7	6
F12	6	5	5	4
					F13	6	8	6	7
F14	7	8	8	6
					F21	9	8	7	8
F22	5	4	6	4
					F23	3	5	4	3
F24	7	7	8	6

TABLE 2A ladder system maintenance probability grade assessment table

Sub-system	Expert	1	Expert 2	Expert 3	Expert 4
						F11	5	7	4	6
F12	4	5	5	6
					F13	3	4	3	4
F14	3	3	4	5
					F21	2	3	3	4
F22	2	3	3	3
					F23	3	2	2	3
F24	4	3	4	5

Wherein, the sedan-chair door system includes: gantry crane controller F₁₁Motor F₁₂Synchronous transmission device F for car door and car door₁₃Sedan-chair door actuating mechanism F₁₄The landing door system comprises: linkage device F₂₁Landing door synchronous transmission device F₂₂Self-closing device F for landing door₂₃Floor door actuating mechanism F₂₄。

Step S120, determining a first probability of the target system according to the probability level of each subsystem in the target system.

In some embodiments, the target system comprises at least two intermediate systems, each of the intermediate systems comprising at least two subsystems, and correspondingly, the determining a first probability of the target system according to the probability level of each subsystem in the target system, step S120, comprises: step S121, determining a first probability of a corresponding subsystem according to the probability level of each subsystem in the target system; step S122, according to the first probability of each subsystem included in each intermediate system, determining the first probability of the corresponding intermediate system based on a reliability series system formula; step S123, determining a first probability of the target system according to the first probabilities of the at least two intermediate systems.

Wherein, the first probability of the subsystem can be the failure probability and the maintenance probability of the subsystem; the first probability of the intermediate system may be a failure rate, a maintenance rate of the intermediate system; the first probability of the target system may be a failure rate of the target system; the intermediate system can be a car door system or a landing door system.

In the embodiment of the application, taking an elevator door system A as an example, the elevator door system A is taken as a target system, and a car door system and a landing door system are taken as intermediate systems of the elevator door system A; the sedan-chair door system includes: door machine controller, motor, sedan-chair door synchronous drive device, sedan-chair door actuating mechanism, layer door system includes: linkage device, landing door synchronous transmission device, landing door self-closing device and landing door actuating mechanism.

Correspondingly, according to each of A laddersA subsystem F_inThe failure probability grade determines the failure rate of the whole elevator door system of the A elevator, and comprises the following steps: expert pair A elevator each subsystem F based on table 1 acquisition_inCalculating the failure probability grade to obtain each subsystem F in the A elevator_inAs shown in table 3.

TABLE 3A probability of failure of ladder system

Elevator subsystem	Failure rate/h-1	Elevator subsystem	Failure rate/h-1
				F11	1.311×10-4	F21	1.1×10-3
F12	2.9431×10-5	F22	2.408×10-5
				F13	3.5852×10-4	F23	7.7055×10-6
F14	5.7078×10-4	F24	4.4057×10-4

The failure rates of the elevator car door system A and the landing door system A are calculated according to the reliability series system formula, and the calculation results are shown in table 5. Further according to a reliable series system formula, the failure rate of the whole elevator door system of the A elevator is calculated to be 2.66 multiplied by 10 according to the failure rates of the elevator door system and the landing door system^-3。

The maintenance rates of the car door system and the landing door system can be calculated according to the steps S121 and S122, and the expert obtained based on the table 2 can be used for each subsystem F in the A elevator_inThe maintenance probability grade is calculated to obtain each subsystem F in the A elevator_inThe maintenance probability of (2) is shown in table 4.

TABLE 4A maintenance probability of ladder System

Elevator subsystem	Failure rate/h-1	Elevator subsystem	Failure rate/h-1
				F11	0.0287	F21	0.0738
F12	0.0344	F22	0.0763
				F13	0.0550	F23	0.0925
F14	0.0513	F24	0.0488

And calculating the maintenance rates of the A-elevator car door system and the landing door system according to the reliability series system formula. The results of the failure rate and maintenance rate calculations for the car door system and landing door system of the a-ladder are shown in table 5.

TABLE 5 failure and maintenance rates of the System

System	Failure rate/h-1	Maintenance rate/h-1
			Car door	1.09×10-3	0.048
Landing door	1.57×10-3	0.064

Step S130, determining the occurrence probability of the intermediate event of the target system based on the hypothesis method.

In some embodiments, the hypothesis method comprises a fault hypothesis analysis, and the intermediate event of the target system comprises one of the following scenarios: the probability that a person takes the elevator to go downstairs and a plurality of persons go up the elevator, no person reminds the elevator of having a fault and happens to meet the elevator fault.

In the embodiment of the application, the specific probability of the elevator door system accident is calculated according to a fault hypothesis analysis method, and the following scenes are assumed: a person takes the A-stair and goes downstairs, and the probability of prompting the occurrence of the intermediate event is 0.2.

Step S140, determining a second probability f of the target system according to the first probability of the target system and the occurrence probability of the intermediate event of the target system.

In some embodiments, the target system first probability x the probability of the target system intermediate event occurring is the second probability f of the target system.

In the embodiment of the present application, according to the above calculation method, the specific probability that the elevator door of the a-ladder has a man-clamping accident at this time is that f is 0.2 × 2.66 × 10^-3＝5.32×10^-4。

Step S150, obtaining the probability f of different systems in a first time period_{Allow for}。

In some embodiments, the obtaining the probability f of the different systems over the first time period_{Allow for}The method comprises the following steps: determining a number of the different systems and a number of deaths of the different systems within the first time period; determining a mortality magnitude for the different systems based on the number of the different systems and the number of deaths for the different systems during the first time period; determining the non-lethal rate according to the lethality magnitude of the different systemsProbability f of the same system in the first time period_{Allow for}。

In the embodiment of the application, the number of elevators and the number of dead people of the elevators in China in the last decade are counted, specifically shown in a table 6, and the order of magnitude of the fatality rate of the elevators in China is 10 according to the table 6^-5～10^-6In between, the acceptable standard of the elevator in China is 10^-5～10^-6In the same way, further obtain f_{Allow for}Value of 10^-5。

TABLE 6 statistics of the number of elevators and the number of dead people in our country over the last decade

Year of year	Number of elevators/ten thousand	Death person/person	Mortality rate
				2011	201.06	30	1.5×10-5
2012	245.33	20	8.2×10-6
				2013	300.93	57	1.9×10-5
2014	359.85	48	1.3×10-5
				2015	425.96	63	1.5×10-5
2016	493.69	41	8.3×10-6
				2017	562.70	41	7.3×10-6
2018	627.83	22	3.5×10-6
				2019	709.75	29	4.1×10-6
2020	786.55	19	2.4×10-6

Step S160, according to the second probability f of the target system and the probability f of the different system in the first time period_{Allow for}Determining a risk reduction factor RRF ═ f/f_{Allow for}。

In the embodiment of the present application, the specific probability f of the accident is 5.32 × 10^-4，f_{Allow for}＝10^-5Risk reduction factor RRF ═ f/f_{Allow for}＝53.2。

Step S170, determining the safety integrity level of the target system according to the risk reduction factor.

In some embodiments, the safety integrity level of the target system is determined by querying a second relationship table; the second relation table is used for representing the corresponding relation between risk reduction factors and safety integrity levels of different systems.

In the embodiment of the application, according to the risk reduction factor RRF ═ f/f_{Allow for}As 53.2, the required safety integrity level of the system is level 1 as known from table 7, and additional safety instrumentation systems are required to reduce the risk. The second relational table is shown in table 7.

TABLE 7 Targeted amount of loss under Low demand operating model

In some possible embodiments, step S121, determining a first probability of each subsystem in the target system according to the probability level of the corresponding subsystem includes: step S1211 to step S1213, wherein:

step S1211, inquiring a preset first relation table according to the probability grade of each subsystem in the target system, and determining a repair loss parameter and a triangular fuzzy set of the corresponding subsystem; the first relation table is used for representing the corresponding relation between the probability grade and the repair loss parameter and between the probability grade and the triangular fuzzy set.

Here, the repair loss parameter may be the number of failures or the time taken for one repair in a second time period, wherein the first time period is greater than the second time period.

In the embodiment of the application, according to the obtained failure probability grade evaluation table of the ladder system shown in the table 1A and the maintenance probability grade evaluation table of the ladder system shown in the table 2A, the failure probability grade table of the elevator door system shown in the table 8 and the maintenance probability grade table of the elevator door system shown in the table 9 are respectively inquired.

Specifically, each subsystem F in the ladder A is treated according to the expert in the table 1_inThe failure probability grade is inquired by 8 elevator door system failure probability grade tables, and each subsystem F of the elevator A is determined_inAnd the failure times and the triangular fuzzy set within 1 year corresponding to the failure probability grade.

Table 8 elevator door system failure probability grade table

Probability level	Number of failures in 1 year	Linguistic variables	Triangular fuzzy sets
				1	≤0.005	Is very rare	(0，0，0.1)
2	0.01	Is rare	(0，0.1，0.2)
				3	0.05	Is relatively rare	(0.1，0.2，0.3)
4	0.1	Is lower than	(0.2，0.3，0.45)
				5	0.5	Is low in	(0.3，0.45，0.55)
6	1	Often times, the heat exchanger is not used for heating	(0.45，0.55，0.7)
				7	5	Repeatedly appear	(0.55，0.7，0.8)
8	10	Height of	(0.7，0.8，0.9)
				9	20	Is very high	(0.8，0.9，1)
10	≥30	Must notAvoid	(0.9，1，1)

Wherein the repair damage parameter is the failure frequency within 1 year; the first time period is 2011-2020, as shown in table 6; the second time period is 1 year, and as shown in table 8, the first time period is greater than the second time period.

Similarly, each subsystem F of ladder A is treated according to the expert in Table 2_inMaintenance probability grade, look-up table 9 maintenance probability grade table of elevator door system, determine each subsystem F of A elevator_inAnd maintaining the time and the triangular fuzzy set which are consumed once corresponding to the probability grade.

TABLE 9 maintenance probability class sheet for elevator door system

Wherein the repair loss parameter is time consumed for one repair.

Step S1212, determining a triangle fuzzy probability of the corresponding subsystem according to the repair loss parameter of each subsystem and the corresponding triangle fuzzy set.

In some embodiments, the jth triangular blur probability of subsystem in the target system is determined by equation (1).

Wherein j is the jth probability level of the subsystem in the target system,

a j-th triangular fuzzy profile for subsystem in of said target systemThe ratio of the total weight of the particles,

a triangular fuzzy set corresponding to the jth probability level of the subsystem in the target system; if the repair loss parameter corresponding to the jth probability level of the subsystem in of the target system is the failure frequency in the second time period, lambda is_mDetermined by equation (2); if the repair loss parameter corresponding to the jth probability level of the subsystem in of the target system is time consumed by one-time repair, lambda is_mDetermined by equation (3).

In the embodiment of the application, each subsystem F is according to the A ladder_inObtaining the failure times and triangular fuzzy set within 1 year corresponding to the failure probability grade to obtain each subsystem F_inThe failure probability of (2) is corresponding to the triangular fuzzy probability. Specifically, look-up table 1, expert 4 gives the A ladder system F₂₁The failure probability level of (1) is 8, the triangular fuzzy set corresponding to the failure probability level of (8) in the table look-up 8 is (0.7, 0.8, 0.9), and the failure frequency of 1 year is 10, then the expert 4 gives the ladder A system F₂₁The triangular fuzzy set of fault probabilities of

According to the formula (2)

According to formula (1), calculating expert 4 to give subsystem F₂₁Triangular fuzzy probability of failure probability of

Calculating according to the method to obtain the ladder system F of the expert 1, the expert 2 and the expert 3 to the ladder A₂₁Three of failure probability ofThe angle ambiguity probability is respectively

Similarly, according to each subsystem F of the A elevator_inMaintaining the time and triangle fuzzy set which is once consumed by maintenance and corresponds to the maintenance probability grade to obtain each subsystem F_inThe maintenance probability of (2) is corresponding to the triangular fuzzy probability. Specifically, look-up table 2, expert 4 gives ladder A system F₁₁The maintenance probability level is 6, the triangular fuzzy set corresponding to the maintenance probability level 6 is (0.7, 0.9, 1) through table look-up 9, the time consumed for one maintenance is 50h, and then the expert 4 gives the subsystem F₁₁The triangular fuzzy set of repair probabilities of

According to the formula (3) to obtain

According to the formula (1), calculating the expert 4 to the subsystem F₁₁Triangular fuzzy probability of maintenance probability

Calculating according to the method to obtain the ladder system F of the expert 1, the expert 2 and the expert 3 to the ladder A₁₁The maintenance probability triangular fuzzy probability is respectively

Step S1213, according to the triangular fuzzy function theory, performing quantitative processing on the triangular fuzzy probability of each subsystem to obtain a first probability of the corresponding subsystem.

Here, the first probability of the subsystem may be understood as an exact probability corresponding to the triangular fuzzy probability of the subsystem.

In some embodiments, the triangular fuzzy probability of each subsystem in the target system is quantified; and (4) obtaining the triangular fuzzy probability of the subsystem in the target system through formula (4).

Wherein the content of the first and second substances,

in order to be the left-hand blur area,

in order to blur the center of the collection,

the right-hand side of the blur area,

the triangular fuzzy probabilities corresponding to the 1 st to j probability levels in the subsystem in of the target system,

the triangular fuzzy probability of the subsystem in the target system.

Obtaining a first probability of subsystem in the target system by formula (5), wherein P_inIs a first probability of a subsystem in the target system.

In the embodiment of the application, each subsystem F is calculated_inThe failure probability of (1) expert to (4) expert to the ladder A system F₂₁Has a triangular fuzzy probability of failure probability of

Obtaining A-ladder neutron system F by an arithmetic mean method₂₁Triangular fuzzy probability of failure probability, i.e. calculating A-ladder subsystem F according to equation (4)₂₁The triangular fuzzy probability of the fault probability of (1) is obtained

Wherein the content of the first and second substances,

in order to be the left-hand blur area,

in order to blur the center of the collection,

is the right fuzzy area; then the ladder A system F is divided into a ladder A system F by using a mean area method₂₁The triangular fuzzy probability of the fault probability is converted into the fault probability, namely, the subsystem F is calculated according to the formula (5)₂₁To obtain the fault probability of

Wherein, P₂₁For A ladder neutron system F₂₁The probability of failure of (2); calculating to obtain each subsystem F of the A elevator in the same way_inThe calculation results of the failure probability of (2) are shown in table 3.

Calculate each subsystem F_inThe maintenance probability of the system is specifically that experts 1 to 4 carry out the maintenance on the ladder A system F₁₁The triangular fuzzy probability of the repair probability of

Obtaining A gradient neutron system F by an arithmetic mean method₂₁The triangular fuzzy probability of the maintenance probability, i.e. calculating the A-ladder subsystem F according to the formula (4)₂₁The triangular fuzzy probability of the maintenance probability of (1) to obtain

Wherein the content of the first and second substances,

in order to be the left-hand blur area,

in order to blur the center of the collection,

is the right fuzzy area; then the ladder A system F is divided into a ladder A system F by using a mean area method₁₁The triangular fuzzy probability of the maintenance probability is converted into the maintenance probability, namely, the subsystem F is calculated according to the formula (5)₁₁To obtain the maintenance probability of

Wherein, P₁₁For A ladder neutron system F₁₁The maintenance probability of the elevator A is calculated in the same way to obtain each subsystem F of the elevator A_inThe calculated result of the maintenance probability of (2) is shown in table 4.

In some embodiments, calculating the triangular blur probability for each subsystem may also be calculated by MATLAB software programming in conjunction with equations (1), (2), (3), and (4). For example, to calculate A ladder system F₁₁Triangular fuzzy probability corresponding to maintenance probability

For example, each subsystem F according to ladder A_inThe time consumed by maintenance once and the triangular fuzzy set of each subsystem of the ladder A are used for calculating the triangular fuzzy probability of each subsystem of the ladder A, and the inquiry table 2 can know that the experts 1, 2, 3 and 4 are paired with the F₁₁The scoring results are 5, 7, 4, 6, respectively, and are programmed by MATLAB software: from the set of triangular ambiguities in Table 9, let: a1 ═ 0, 0, 0.1]，A2＝[0，0.1，0.3]，A3＝[0.1，0.3，0.5]，A4＝[0.3，0.5，0.7]，A5＝[0.5，0.7，0.9]，A6＝[0.7，0.9，1]，A7＝[0.9，1，1](ii) a From the time spent in one maintenance in table 9, let: b1 ═ 1/0.5, B2 ═ 1/1, B3 ═ 1/5, B4 ═ 1/10, B5 ═ 1/20, B6 ═ 1/50, B7 ═ 1/80; taking B1 as an example, wherein 1/0.5 indicates that 0.5h is needed for one maintenance.

Calculating F according to formula (1) and formula (4)₁₁Triangular fuzzy probability of (F)₁₁The triangular fuzzy probability of

Wherein the content of the first and second substances,

in order to be the left-hand blur area,

in order to blur the center of the collection,

the right-hand side of the blur area,

and triangularly blurring the probability for the target system.

In some possible embodiments, when the security system required by the target system needs to be optimized, the method further includes step S180, step S190, and step S200.

Here, if the accident frequency of the target system is found to be below the acceptable risk standard according to the safety integrity level of the target system, the risk of the system is acceptable without adding an additional safety instrument system; if the frequency of accidents occurring in the elevator door system is above the acceptable risk standard, the current risk is unacceptable, casualties and property loss are easily caused, and the safety system required by the target system can be optimized.

In the embodiment of the application, an elevator door system A is taken as an example, the elevator door system A is taken as a target system, and a car door system and a landing door system are taken as intermediate systems of the elevator door system A; the sedan-chair door system includes: gantry crane controller F₁₁Motor F₁₂Synchronous transmission device F for car door and car door₁₃Sedan-chair door actuating mechanism F₁₄The landing door system comprises: linkage device F₂₁Landing door synchronous transmission device F₂₂Self-closing device F for landing door₂₃Floor door actuating mechanism F₂₄。

And step S180, confirming the steady-state availability of the at least two intermediate systems according to the first probability of the at least two intermediate systems based on the Markov theory.

A reliability block diagram of an elevator door system is obtained by dividing the structure of an A-elevator door system, and a random process is defined as shown in figure 2

The random process has a total of 4 different states, state 0: the A elevator car door system and the landing door system are both in a normal state; state 2: the A-ladder car door system is in a normal state, and the A-ladder landing door system is in a fault state; state 3: the A-ladder car door system is in a fault state, and the A-ladder landing door system is in a normal state; and 4: the A-elevator car door system and the landing door system are in fault states.

The markov state transition diagram of the a-ladder door system is made according to markov theory, and as shown in fig. 3, the formula (6) a markov state transition matrix Q of the a-ladder door system is obtained.

Wherein λ₁And λ₂The failure rates of the A elevator car door system and the landing door system are respectively; mu.s₁And mu₂The maintenance rates of the car door system and landing door system of the a-ladder, and the failure rate and maintenance rate of the car door system and landing door system of the a-ladder, respectively, are shown in table 5.

Deducing a transient reliability calculation formula of the elevator door system to ensure that P_i(t) is the probability that the system is in state i (i ═ 0, 1, 2, 3) at time t, P_i(t)＝{P₀(t)，P₁(t)，P₂(t)，P₃(t) is the state distribution vector of the system at time t, P_i' (t) is P_iDerivative of (t), vector P_i’(t)＝{P₀’(t)，P₁’(t)，P₂’(t)，P₃' (t) } is P_i' (t) in a matrix. Equation of state P by Markov process_i(t)QP_i' (t) can be given as equation (7) which is subjected to laplace transform to give equation (8) where,

is P_i(t) vectors obtained after laplace transformation, and s is a variable obtained by laplace transformation of t. Then, the formula (8) is inverse-transformed to obtain P₀(t)、P₁(t)、P₂(t) and P₃(t) (i.e., the probability of being in state 0, 1, 2, 3 at time t).

P can be obtained by the formula (8)₀(t)、P₁(t)、P₂(t) and P₃(t) when t reaches infinity, the transient availability of each state becomes the steady state availability, using P_i(i is 0, 1, 2, 3), and P is { P ═ P₀，P₁，P₂，P₃Is the distribution vector of steady-state probabilities. The steady state probability equation set of the elevator door system can be obtained as a formula (9) according to the Markov process steady state equation P.Q which is 0, and the steady state probability of each state of the system can be obtained according to the formula (9).

Finally, substituting the corresponding probability into reliability calculation formulas (7) and (8), and then utilizing MATLAB software to obtain the influence of each subsystem of the elevator door system on the whole door system, so as to obtain the steady-state availability of the elevator door system and the landing door system which are respectively P₁0.9786 and P₂＝0.9764。

And step S190, comparing the steady state availability of the at least two intermediate systems to obtain the minimum steady state availability of the target system.

In the embodiment of the application, the steady-state availability P of the car door system is compared₁Steady state availability P for 0.9786 sum landing door system₂0.9764, it is found that the steady state availability of the landing door system is less than the steady state availability of the landing door in the car door system, i.e., elevator door system.

Step S200, outputting reminding information based on the minimum steady-state availability of the target system and the safety integrity level of the target system; and the reminding information is used for reminding the increase of the safety of the target system.

In the embodiment of the application, according to the result queried in step S170, the risk level of the elevator door system of the a-elevator does not reach the acceptable risk standard. Therefore, the influence of the maintenance rate and the fault rate of the car door system and the landing door system on the steady-state availability of the system is analyzed, and fig. 4a and 4b are shown, wherein a is P0; according to fig. 4a and 4b, it can be found that the landing door is easier to affect the whole system and is easier to cause casualties than a car door, so a safety instrument system with a safety integrity level of 1 should be added to the landing door to take relative measures to reduce risks.

In some possible embodiments, step S110 further includes: the target system is divided into at least two intermediate systems by means of the delphi method.

In the embodiment of the application, taking an elevator door system A as an example, the elevator door system A is taken as a target system, and a car door system and a landing door system are taken as intermediate systems of the elevator door system A; dividing the elevator door system structure of the A elevator into an elevator car door system and a landing door system by a Delphi method; the sedan-chair door system includes: door machine controller F₁₁Motor F₁₂Synchronous transmission device F for car door and car door₁₃Sedan-chair door actuating mechanism F₁₄The landing door system comprises: linkage device F₂₁Landing door synchronous transmission device F₂₂Self-closing device F for landing door₂₃Landing door actuating mechanism F₂₄。

In some possible embodiments, the reliability series system formula includes formula (10) and formula (11):

λ_i＝λ_i1+…+λ_inequation (10);

wherein λ_iTo failure rate, λ_i1～λ_inAt least two of the subsystem failure rates.

Wherein, mu_iFor maintenance rate, λ_i1～λ_inFor at least two of said sub-system failure rates, mu_i1～μ_inMaintenance rates for at least two of the subsystems.

In the embodiment of the application, the car door system is in a series connection mode, and the car door can normally run only under the condition that a door machine controller, a motor, a car door synchronous transmission device and a car door actuating mechanism are normal; on the premise that the landing door self-closing device is normal, the linkage device, the landing door synchronous transmission device and the landing door actuating mechanism are normal, the landing door can normally operate, and the process can be approximately seen as a series connection mode; a reliability block diagram of an elevator door system is therefore shown in fig. 2.

The reliability series system is formulated as formula (10) and formula (11).

λ_i＝λ_i1+…+λ_1nEquation (10);

wherein λ is_iTo failure rate, λ_i1～λ_inIs subsystem F_inAnd the failure rate of the car door system and the landing door system of the A ladder is calculated firstly through a reliability series system formula.

Wherein, mu_iFor maintenance rate, λ_i1～λ_inTo subsystem failure rate, mu_i1～μ_inThe subsystem maintenance rate.

And calculating the failure rate and the maintenance rate of the car door system and the landing door system in the A-type elevator door system according to the reliability series system formula, as shown in table 5.

In some possible embodiments, step S1211 further includes: a first relationship table is defined. Defining linguistic variables by using a Delphi method, and determining the corresponding relation between the linguistic variables and the triangular fuzzy set; carrying out probability grade division on the repair loss parameters according to the linguistic variables to obtain corresponding relations among the linguistic variables, the repair loss parameters and the probability grades; and determining the corresponding relation among the probability grade, the damage repairing parameter, the linguistic variable and the triangular fuzzy set as the first relation table.

In the embodiment of the application, if a fault probability grade table of an elevator door system is defined, language variables of fault times of the elevator door system within 1 year are defined by using a Delphi method, and a triangular fuzzy set is introduced for 10 language variables from very rare to unavoidable, wherein each language variable corresponds to the triangular fuzzy set, and if the triangular fuzzy set corresponding to the 'very rare' is (0, 0, 0.1); dividing the failure frequency within 1 year into 1-10 grades according to the language variable, wherein if the probability grade 1 is that the failure frequency within 1 year is less than or equal to 0.005, the corresponding language variable is very rare; the corresponding relation between the failure frequency of level 1 and the failure frequency of 1 year less than or equal to 0.005, the failure frequency of 'very rare' and the triangular fuzzy set of (0, 0, 0.1) is obtained, and by analogy, the defined failure probability level table of the elevator door system is shown in the table 8.

If defining an elevator door system maintenance probability grade table, defining language variables of time consumed by one-time maintenance of the elevator door system by using a Delphi method, introducing triangular fuzzy sets for 7 language variables which are very easy to reach to be very difficult, wherein each language variable is in a corresponding relation with the triangular fuzzy sets, and if the triangular fuzzy sets corresponding to 'very easy' are (0, 0, 0.1); the maintenance time consumed for one maintenance is divided into 1-7 levels according to the language variable, if the probability level 1 is 0.5h, the corresponding language variable is 'very easy', the corresponding relation between the level 1 and the maintenance time consumed for one maintenance is 0.5h, the 'very easy' and the triangular fuzzy set is (0, 0, 0.1) is obtained, and so on, and the defined maintenance probability level table of the elevator door system is shown in table 9.

In some possible embodiments, the trigonometric fuzzy function theory includes a decomposition theorem of the fuzzy function for linking fuzzy mathematics and a dilation principle, which extends common mathematical methods to fuzzy mathematics.

In some possible embodiments, the method further comprises: the method for constructing the triangular fuzzy function models of different systems through the triangular fuzzy sets of different systems is as follows:

the triangular fuzzy set is as follows:

wherein

In order to blur the center of the collection,

the left-side blurred region is shown,

the right-hand side of the blur area,

is the degree of membership; the trigonometric fuzzy function model of the different system is determined by equation (12).

In the embodiment of the application, language variables of the failure times of the elevator door system within 1 year are defined by using a delphire method, the failure probability level is divided into 10 levels from rare to unavoidable, and in order to link the judgment result of an expert on the event occurrence probability with a fuzzy set, a triangular fuzzy set is introduced, wherein the corresponding relation between each language variable and the triangular fuzzy set is shown in table 8. And obtaining a triangular membership function schematic diagram of the failure probability grade of the elevator door system according to the linguistic variable and the triangular fuzzy set, as shown in fig. 5 a.

The linguistic variables of time consumed by one-time maintenance of the elevator door system are defined by utilizing a Delphi method, the maintenance probability grades are divided into 7 grades from very easy to very difficult, and in order to link the judgment result of an expert on the event occurrence probability with the fuzzy set, a triangular fuzzy set is introduced, wherein the corresponding relation between each linguistic variable and the triangular fuzzy set is shown in a table 9. And obtaining a triangular membership function schematic diagram of the maintenance probability grade of the elevator door system according to the linguistic variable and the triangular fuzzy set, as shown in fig. 5 b.

The above method is described below with reference to a specific embodiment, wherein, however, it should be noted that the specific embodiment is only for better describing the present application and is not to be construed as limiting the present application. The elevator of a certain cell in H city is selected as a case and is marked as an A elevator, and the method comprises the following steps:

in step S310, the elevator door system is divided into a car door system and a landing door system by the delphi method.

Wherein, the sedan-chair door system includes: door machine controller, motor, sedan-chair door synchronous drive device and sedan-chair door actuating mechanism, layer door system includes: the landing door automatic closing device comprises a linkage device, a landing door synchronous transmission device, a landing door automatic closing device and a landing door actuating mechanism.

And step S320, constructing a triangular fuzzy function model of the fault grade and the maintenance grade.

The method for constructing the triangular fuzzy function model of the elevator door system comprises the following steps: first, an event f is set_iThe fuzzy set of possibilities for failure is:

wherein

In order to blur the center of the collection,

in order to be the left-hand blur area,

is a fuzzy area at the right side and is a fuzzy area at the right side,

is the degree of membership. The trigonometric fuzzy function model of the elevator door system is determined by equation (12).

Step S330, defining linguistic variables and fuzzy sets of fault levels and maintenance levels.

Defining linguistic variables and fuzzy sets of fault levels of an elevator door system and linguistic variables and fuzzy sets of maintenance levels of the elevator door system, wherein the method comprises the following steps: firstly, dividing the failure grade of the elevator door system into 10 grades from rare to unavoidable grade by utilizing a Delphi method on the basis of the structure divided in the step S310, and concretely referring to a table 8; the repair grades are divided into 7 grades, from very easy to very difficult, see table 9. Triangular membership function maps for the elevator door system failure class and the maintenance class are then made according to step S320, as shown in fig. 5a and 5b, respectively.

In step S340, the linguistic variables in step S330 are used to score experts for each subsystem divided by the elevator door system in step S310, and the scoring results are shown in tables 1 and 2.

And step S350, converting the expert scoring result into corresponding probability according to the triangular fuzzy function theory. Through the decomposition theorem and the expansion principle of the fuzzy function, the expert scoring condition can be converted into a triangular fuzzy set.

One probability level for each lambda_mThe j-th expert can be given to the subsystem F_inThe failure level or the maintenance level occurring within one year is expressed by equation (1) using the corresponding fuzzy probability. Lambda [ alpha ]_mBy formula (2) or formula (3)) And (4) determining.

Wherein j is the jth probability level of subsystem in the target system,

is the jth triangular blur probability of subsystem in the target system,

and the triangular fuzzy set is corresponding to the jth probability level of the subsystem in the target system.

The specific calculation is as follows: according to each subsystem F of the A elevator_inObtaining the failure times and triangular fuzzy set within 1 year corresponding to the failure probability grade to obtain each subsystem F_inThe failure probability of (2) is corresponding to the triangular fuzzy probability. Specifically, look-up table 1, expert 4 gives ladder A system F₂₁The failure probability level of (1) is 8, the triangular fuzzy set corresponding to the failure probability level of (8) in the table look-up 8 is (0.7, 0.8, 0.9), and the failure frequency of 1 year is 10, then the expert 4 gives the ladder A system F₂₁The triangular fuzzy set of fault probabilities of

According to the formula (2)

According to formula (1), calculating expert 4 to give subsystem F₂₁Triangular fuzzy probability of failure probability of

Calculating according to the method to obtain the ladder system F of the expert 1, the expert 2 and the expert 3 to the ladder A₂₁The triangular fuzzy probabilities of the fault probabilities of (1) are respectively

Similarly, according to each subsystem F of the A elevator_inMaintaining the time and triangle fuzzy set which is once consumed by maintenance and corresponds to the maintenance probability grade to obtain each subsystem F_inThe maintenance probability of (2) is corresponding to the triangular fuzzy probability. Specifically, look-up table 2, expert 4 gives ladder A system F₁₁The maintenance probability level is 6, the triangular fuzzy set corresponding to the maintenance probability level 6 is (0.7, 0.9, 1) through table look-up 9, the time consumed for one maintenance is 50h, and then the expert 4 gives the subsystem F₁₁The triangular fuzzy set of repair probabilities of

According to the formula (3) to obtain

According to formula (1), calculating expert 4 to give subsystem F₁₁Triangular fuzzy probability of maintenance probability

Calculating according to the method to obtain the ladder system F of the expert 1, the expert 2 and the expert 3 to the ladder A₁₁The maintenance probability triangular fuzzy probability is respectively

The triangular fuzzy probability can be quantified by using an arithmetic mean method, and is specifically represented by formula (4).

Wherein the content of the first and second substances,

in order to be the left-hand blur area,

in order to blur the center of the collection,

the right-hand side of the blur area,

the triangular fuzzy probabilities corresponding to the 1 st to j probability levels in the subsystem in of the target system,

the triangular fuzzy probability of the subsystem in the target system.

Then, the fuzzy probability of each subsystem in the fault state or the maintenance state is converted into the accurate probability by using a mean area method, and the accurate probability is specifically represented by a formula (5).

Wherein, P_inIs a first probability of a subsystem in the target system.

The specific calculation is as follows: calculate each subsystem F_inThe failure probability of (1) expert to (4) expert to the ladder A system F₂₁Has a triangular fuzzy probability of failure probability of

Obtaining A-ladder neutron system F by an arithmetic mean method₂₁Triangular fuzzy probability of failure probability, i.e. calculating A-ladder subsystem F according to equation (4)₂₁The triangular fuzzy probability of the fault probability of (1) is obtained

Wherein the content of the first and second substances,

in order to be the left-hand blur area,

in order to blur the center of the collection,

is the right fuzzy area; then the ladder A system F is divided into a ladder A system F by using a mean area method₂₁The triangular fuzzy probability of the fault probability is converted into the fault probability, namely, the subsystem F is calculated according to the formula (5)₂₁To obtain the fault probability of

Wherein, P₂₁For A ladder neutron system F₂₁The probability of failure of (2); calculating to obtain each subsystem F of the A elevator in the same way_inThe calculation results of the failure probability of (2) are shown in table 3.

Calculate each subsystem F_inThe maintenance probability of the system is specifically that experts 1 to 4 carry out the maintenance on the ladder A system F₁₁The triangular fuzzy probability of the repair probability of

Obtaining the A-ladder neutron system F by an arithmetic mean method₂₁The triangular fuzzy probability of the maintenance probability, i.e. calculating the A-ladder subsystem F according to the formula (4)₂₁Triangular fuzzy probability of maintenance probability of

Wherein the content of the first and second substances,

in order to be the left-hand blur area,

in order to blur the center of the collection,

is the right fuzzy area; then the ladder A system F is divided into a ladder A system F by using a mean area method₁₁The triangular fuzzy probability of the maintenance probability is converted into the maintenance probability, namely, the subsystem F is calculated according to the formula (5)₁₁To obtain the maintenance probability of

Wherein, P₁₁For A ladder neutron system F₁₁The maintenance probability of the elevator A is calculated in the same way to obtain each subsystem F of the elevator A_inThe calculated result of the maintenance probability of (2) is shown in table 4.

After the failure rate and the maintenance rate of each subsystem are obtained, the failure of the whole system can be caused when any subsystem in the elevator door system fails due to the mutual independence of the subsystems, so the components can be regarded as a series system. The failure rate and maintenance rate of the car door and landing door system can be calculated according to the reliability series formula, which is shown in table 5. Further according to a reliable series system formula, the failure rate of the whole door system is calculated to be 2.66 multiplied by 10 according to the failure rates of the car door system and the landing door system^-3。

And step S360, determining an elevator acceptance standard by counting the magnitude of the elevator fatality rate of a certain area in the last decade.

In practice, the number of elevators in a certain area and the death number of the elevators in the area in the last decade are counted, specifically, see table 6, and according to the table 6, the magnitude order of the death rate of the elevators in the area is 10^-5～10^-6In between, it can be found that the acceptance standard of the elevator in the area is 10^-5～10^-6In the same way, further obtain f_{Allow for}Value of 10^-5。

And step S370, determining the specific probability of the elevator door system accident through a fault hypothesis analysis method.

Calculating the specific probability of the elevator door system accident according to a fault hypothesis analysis method, and assuming the following scenes: a person takesWhen the elevator goes downstairs and the probability of prompting the occurrence of the intermediate event is 0.2, the specific probability of the occurrence of the man-holding event of the elevator door is that f is 0.2 × 2.66 × 10^-3＝5.32×10^-4。

And step S380, determining the safety integrity level required by the elevator door system according to the risk reduction factor.

The level of safety integrity required by the system can be determined by comparing the specific probability of an elevator door system accident occurring in step S370 with the acceptable risk criteria for the elevator in step S360.

According to the safety integrity level required by the elevator door system, if the accident frequency of the elevator door system is lower than the acceptable risk standard, the risk of the system is acceptable without adding an additional safety instrument system; if the frequency of accidents of the elevator door system is above the acceptable risk standard, the current risk is unacceptable, and casualties and property loss are easily caused.

Risk reduction factor RRF f/f_{Allow for}At 53.2, i.e. additional safety instrumentation systems are required to reduce the risk, the required safety integrity level of the system is level 1 as can be seen from the table look-up 7. There is a need to identify additional safety instrumented systems as needed.

And step S390, optimizing the newly added safety instrument system.

Specifically, two intermediate systems of the elevator door system are analyzed by using a Markov theory, a reliability block diagram of the elevator door system is obtained by dividing according to the structure of the A-elevator door system, and a random process is defined as shown in figure 2

The random process has a total of 4 different states, state 0: the A elevator car door system and the landing door system are both in a normal state; state 2: the A-ladder car door system is in a normal state, and the A-ladder landing door system is in a fault state; state 3: the A-ladder car door system is in a fault state, and the A-ladder landing door system is in a normal state; and 4: the A-elevator car door system and the landing door system are in fault states.

The markov state transition diagram of the a-ladder door system is made according to markov theory, and as shown in fig. 3, the formula (6) a markov state transition matrix Q of the a-ladder door system is obtained.

Wherein λ₁And λ₂The failure rates of the A elevator car door system and the landing door system are respectively; mu.s₁And mu₂The maintenance rates of the car door system and landing door system of the a-ladder, and the failure rate and maintenance rate of the car door system and landing door system of the a-ladder, respectively, are shown in table 5.

Deducing a transient reliability calculation formula of the elevator door system to ensure that P_i(t) is the probability that the system is in state i (i ═ 0, 1, 2, 3) at time t, P_i(t)＝{P₀(t)，P₁(t)，P₂(t)，P₃(t) is the state distribution vector of the system at time t, P_i' (t) is P_iDerivative of (t), vector P_i’(t)＝{P₀’(t)，P₁’(t)，P₂’(t)，P₃' (t) } is P_i' (t) in a matrix. Equation of state P by Markov process_i(t)Q＝P_i' (t) can be given as equation (7) which is subjected to laplace transform to give equation (8) where,

is P_i(t) vectors obtained after laplace transformation, and s is a variable obtained by laplace transformation of t. Then, the formula (8) is inverse-transformed to obtain P₀(t)、P₁(t)、P₂(t) and P₃(t) (i.e., the probability of being in state 0, 1, 2, 3 at time t).

P can be obtained by the formula (8)₀(t)、P₁(t)、P₂(t) and P₃(t) when t reaches infinity, the transient availability of each state becomes the steady state availability, using P_i(i is 0, 1, 2, 3), and P is { P ═ P₀，P₁，P₂，P₃Is the distribution vector of steady-state probabilities. The steady state probability equation set of the elevator door system can be obtained as a formula (9) according to the Markov process steady state equation P.Q which is 0, and the steady state probability of each state of the system can be obtained according to the formula (9).

Finally, substituting the corresponding probability into reliability calculation formulas (7) and (8), and then utilizing MATLAB software to obtain the influence of each subsystem of the elevator door system on the whole door system, so as to obtain the steady-state availability of the elevator door system and the landing door system which are respectively P₁0.9786 and P₂＝0.9764。

Contrast the Steady State availability P of the Car door System₁Steady state availability P for 0.9786 sum landing door system₂0.9764, the steady state availability of the landing door system is less than the car door system.

Analyzing the influence of different maintenance rates and failure rates of the car door and the landing door on the steady-state availability of the system, such as fig. 4a and 4b, wherein a is P0; according to the figures 4a and 4b, the landing door is easier to influence the whole system and is easier to cause casualties compared with a sedan door.

Therefore, a safety instrument system with a safety integrity level of 1 should be added to the landing door to take relative measures to reduce risks.

Based on the foregoing embodiments, an embodiment of the present application further provides a target system security classification apparatus, where the apparatus includes modules and sub-modules included in the modules, and the apparatus can be implemented by a processor in a target system; of course, the implementation can also be realized through a specific logic circuit; in the implementation process, the Processor may be a Central Processing Unit (CPU), a microprocessor Unit (MPU), a Digital Signal Processor (DSP), a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA), or the like.

Based on the foregoing embodiments, a target system security classification apparatus provided in an embodiment of the present application, as shown in fig. 6, includes: a first obtaining module 61, configured to obtain a probability level of each subsystem in the target system; a first determining module 62 for determining a first probability of the target system based on the probability level of each subsystem in the target system; a second obtaining module 63 for determining the probability of occurrence of an intermediate event of the target system based on a hypothesis; a second determining module 64, configured to determine a second probability f of the target system according to the first probability of the target system and the occurrence probability of the intermediate event of the target system; a third obtaining module 65 for obtaining the probability f of different systems in the first time period_{Allow for}(ii) a A third determination module 66 for the second probability f of the target system and the probability f of the different system over the first time period_{Allow for}Determining the risk reduction factor RRF ═ f/f_{Allow for}(ii) a A fourth determining module 67 determines the safety integrity level of the target system according to the risk reduction factor.

In some possible embodiments, the target system comprises at least two intermediate systems, each of the intermediate systems comprising at least two subsystems; the first determining module includes: the first determining submodule is used for determining a first probability of a corresponding subsystem according to the probability grade of each subsystem in the target system; the second determining submodule determines a first probability of the corresponding intermediate system based on a reliability series system formula according to the first probability of each subsystem included in each intermediate system; a third determining submodule for determining a first probability of the target system based on the first probabilities of the at least two intermediate systems.

In some possible embodiments, the first determining sub-module comprises: the first determining unit is used for inquiring a preset first relation table according to the probability grade of each subsystem in the target system and determining a repair loss parameter and a triangular fuzzy set of the corresponding subsystem; the first relation table is used for representing the corresponding relation between the probability grade and the repair loss parameter and between the probability grade and the triangular fuzzy set; the second determining unit is used for determining the triangular fuzzy probability of the corresponding subsystem according to the repair loss parameters of each subsystem and the corresponding triangular fuzzy set; and the quantification unit is used for carrying out quantification processing on the triangular fuzzy probability of each subsystem according to a triangular fuzzy function theory to obtain a first probability of the corresponding subsystem.

In some possible embodiments, the apparatus further comprises: a fifth determining module, configured to define a linguistic variable through a delphi method, and determine a correspondence between the linguistic variable and the triangular fuzzy set; a sixth determining module, configured to perform probability level division on the repair loss parameter according to the linguistic variable to obtain a corresponding relationship between the linguistic variable and the repair loss parameter as well as the probability level; and the seventh determining module is configured to determine, as the first relation table, a corresponding relation among the probability level, the impairment parameter, the linguistic variable, and the triangular fuzzy set.

In some possible embodiments, the second determining unit is configured to:

by passing

Determining the jth triangular fuzzy probability of the subsystem in the target system;

wherein j is the jth probability level of subsystem in the target system,

is the jth triangular blur probability of subsystem in the target system,

for a subsystem in said target systemThe triangular fuzzy set corresponding to the jth probability level;

if the repair loss parameter corresponding to the jth probability level of the subsystem in of the target system is the failure frequency in the second time period, determining that the repair loss parameter is the failure frequency in the second time period

If the repair loss parameter corresponding to the jth probability level of the subsystem in of the target system is time consumed by one-time repair, determining that the repair loss parameter is the time consumed by one-time repair

In some possible embodiments, the quantification unit is configured to:

by passing

Obtaining a triangular blur probability of a subsystem in the target system, wherein,

in order to be the left-hand blur area,

in order to blur the center of the collection,

the right-hand side of the blur area,

the triangular fuzzy probabilities corresponding to the 1 st to j probability levels in the subsystem in of the target system,

the triangular fuzzy probability of the subsystem in the target system;

by passing

Obtaining a first probability of a subsystem in the target system, wherein P_inIs a first probability of a subsystem in the target system.

In some possible embodiments, the third obtaining module includes: an obtaining submodule for determining the number of the different systems and the number of deaths of the different systems within the first time period; a fourth determining submodule, configured to determine the mortality order of the different systems according to the number of the different systems and the number of deaths of the different systems in the first time period; a fifth determining submodule for determining the probability f of the different system during the first time period based on the magnitude of the lethality of the different system_{Allow for}。

In some possible embodiments, the fourth determining module is configured to determine the safety integrity level of the target system by querying a second relation table according to the risk reduction factor; and the second relation table is used for representing the corresponding relation between the risk reduction factors and the safety integrity levels of different systems.

In some possible embodiments, the apparatus further comprises: an eighth determining module, configured to determine steady-state availability of the at least two intermediate systems according to the first probability of the at least two intermediate systems based on markov theory; a ninth determining module, configured to compare the steady-state availability of the at least two intermediate systems to obtain a minimum steady-state availability of the target system; the output module is used for outputting reminding information based on the minimum steady-state availability of the target system and the safety integrity level of the target system; and the reminding information is used for reminding the increase of the safety of the target system.

It is to be noted here that: the above description of the apparatus embodiments, similar to the above description of the method embodiments, has similar beneficial effects as the method embodiments. For technical details not disclosed in the embodiments of the apparatus of the present application, reference is made to the description of the embodiments of the method of the present application for understanding.

It should be noted that, in the embodiment of the present application, if the method described above is implemented in the form of a software functional module and sold or used as a standalone product, it may also be stored in a computer readable storage medium. Based on such understanding, the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present application may be embodied in the form of a software product, which is stored in a storage medium and includes several instructions for causing a computer device to execute all or part of the methods described in the embodiments of the present application. And the aforementioned storage medium includes: various media capable of storing program codes, such as a usb disk, a removable hard disk, a Read Only Memory (ROM), a magnetic disk, or an optical disk. Thus, embodiments of the present application are not limited to any specific combination of hardware and software.

Correspondingly, the present application provides a computer readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, which when executed by a processor implements the steps in the method provided in the above embodiments.

The embodiment of the present application may further provide a chip, where the chip includes a processor, and the processor may call and run a computer program from a memory to implement the steps in any of the methods described above. The chip may also include a memory. Wherein the processor may retrieve from the memory and execute the computer program to perform the steps of any of the above methods. The memory may be a separate device from the processor or may be integrated into the processor.

Here, it should be noted that: the above description of the storage medium and device embodiments is similar to the description of the method embodiments above, with similar advantageous effects as the method embodiments. For technical details not disclosed in the embodiments of the storage medium and apparatus of the present application, reference is made to the description of the embodiments of the method of the present application for understanding.

Correspondingly, the embodiment of the present application further provides a target system security rating device, which is used for implementing the target system security rating method described in the above method embodiment. The apparatus comprises a computer storage medium storing a computer program comprising instructions executable by at least one processor, the instructions when executed by the at least one processor implementing the method in an embodiment of the present application.

Here, it should be noted that: the above description of the apparatus, the computer storage medium, the chip, the computer program product, the computer program embodiment is similar to the description of the method embodiment described above, with similar advantageous effects as the method embodiment. For technical details not disclosed in embodiments of a target system security rating apparatus, a computer readable storage medium, a chip, a computer program product, a computer program of the present application, reference is made to the description of embodiments of the method of the present application for understanding. The apparatus, chip or processor described above may include an integration of any one or more of: an Application Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC), a Digital Signal Processor (DSP), a Digital Signal Processing Device (DSPD), a Programmable Logic Device (PLD), a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA), a Central Processing Unit (CPU), a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU), an embedded neural Network Processing Unit (NPU), a controller, a microcontroller, a microprocessor, a Programmable Logic Device, a discrete Gate or transistor Logic Device, and discrete hardware components. Those of ordinary skill in the art will understand that: all or part of the steps for realizing the method embodiments can be completed by hardware related to program instructions, the program can be stored in a computer storage medium, and the program executes the steps comprising the method embodiments when executed; and the aforementioned storage medium includes: various media that can store program code, such as removable storage devices, read-only memories, magnetic or optical disks, etc. Alternatively, the integrated units described above in this application may be stored in a computer storage medium if they are implemented in the form of software functional modules and sold or used as separate products.

Based on such understanding, the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present application may be essentially implemented or portions thereof contributing to the related art may be embodied in the form of a software product stored in a storage medium, and including instructions for causing a computer device (which may be a personal computer, a server, etc.) to execute all or part of the methods described in the embodiments of the present application. And the aforementioned storage medium includes: a removable storage device, a ROM, a magnetic or optical disk, or other various media that can store program code.

It should be appreciated that reference throughout this specification to "one embodiment" or "an embodiment" means that a particular feature, structure or characteristic described in connection with the embodiment is included in at least one embodiment of the present application. Thus, the appearances of the phrases "in one embodiment" or "in an embodiment" in various places throughout this specification are not necessarily all referring to the same embodiment. Furthermore, the particular features, structures, or characteristics may be combined in any suitable manner in one or more embodiments. It should be understood that, in the various embodiments of the present application, the sequence numbers of the above-mentioned processes do not mean the execution sequence, and the execution sequence of each process should be determined by its function and inherent logic, and should not constitute any limitation to the implementation process of the embodiments of the present application. The above-mentioned serial numbers of the embodiments of the present application are merely for description and do not represent the merits of the embodiments.

It should be noted that, in this document, the terms "comprises," "comprising," or any other variation thereof, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises a list of elements does not include only those elements but may include other elements not expressly listed or inherent to such process, method, article, or apparatus. Without further limitation, an element defined by the phrase "comprising an … …" does not exclude the presence of other like elements in a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises the element.

In the several embodiments provided in the present application, it should be understood that the disclosed apparatus and method may be implemented in other ways. The above-described device embodiments are merely illustrative, for example, the division of the unit is only a logical functional division, and there may be other division ways in actual implementation, such as: multiple units or components may be combined, or may be integrated into another system, or some features may be omitted, or not implemented. In addition, the coupling, direct coupling or communication connection between the components shown or discussed may be through some interfaces, and the indirect coupling or communication connection between the devices or units may be electrical, mechanical or other forms.

The units described as separate parts may or may not be physically separate, and parts displayed as units may or may not be physical units; can be located in one place or distributed on a plurality of network units; some or all of the units can be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of the embodiments of the present application.

In addition, all functional units in the embodiments of the present application may be integrated into one processing unit, or each unit may be separately regarded as one unit, or two or more units may be integrated into one unit; the integrated unit can be realized in a form of hardware, or in a form of hardware plus a software functional unit.

Alternatively, the integrated units described above in the present application may be stored in a computer-readable storage medium if they are implemented in the form of software functional modules and sold or used as independent products. Based on such understanding, the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present application may be embodied in the form of a software product, which is stored in a storage medium and includes several instructions for causing an automatic test line of a device to perform all or part of the methods described in the embodiments of the present application. And the aforementioned storage medium includes: a removable storage device, a ROM, a magnetic or optical disk, or other various media that can store program code.

The methods disclosed in the several method embodiments provided in the present application may be combined arbitrarily without conflict to obtain new method embodiments.

The features disclosed in the several method or apparatus embodiments provided in the present application may be combined arbitrarily, without conflict, to arrive at new method embodiments or apparatus embodiments.

The above description is only for the embodiments of the present application, but the scope of the present application is not limited thereto, and any person skilled in the art can easily conceive of changes or substitutions within the technical scope of the present application, and shall be covered by the scope of the present application. Therefore, the protection scope of the present application shall be subject to the protection scope of the claims.

Claims (10)

1. A method for security rating of a target system, the method comprising:

acquiring the probability level of each subsystem in the target system;

determining a first probability of the target system based on the probability level of each subsystem in the target system;

determining a probability of occurrence of an intermediate event of the target system based on a hypothesis;

determining a second probability f of the target system according to the first probability of the target system and the occurrence probability of the intermediate event of the target system;

obtaining probabilities f of different systems during a first time period_{Allow for}；

According to the second probability f of the target system and the probability f of the different system in the first time period_{Allow for}Determining the risk reduction factor RRF ═ f/f_{Allow for}；

And determining the safety integrity level of the target system according to the risk reduction factor.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the target system comprises at least two intermediate systems, each of the intermediate systems comprising at least two subsystems;

correspondingly, the determining a first probability of the target system according to the probability level of each subsystem in the target system includes:

determining a first probability of a corresponding subsystem according to the probability level of each subsystem in the target system;

determining a first probability of the corresponding intermediate system based on a reliability series system formula according to the first probability of each subsystem included in each intermediate system;

determining a first probability of the target system based on the first probabilities of the at least two intermediate systems.

3. The method of claim 2, wherein determining the first probability for each subsystem in the target system based on the probability level for the corresponding subsystem comprises:

inquiring a preset first relation table according to the probability grade of each subsystem in the target system, and determining a repair loss parameter and a triangular fuzzy set of the corresponding subsystem; the first relation table is used for representing the corresponding relation between the probability grade and the repair loss parameter and between the probability grade and the triangular fuzzy set;

determining the triangular fuzzy probability of the corresponding subsystem according to the repair loss parameter of each subsystem and the corresponding triangular fuzzy set;

and carrying out quantification processing on the triangular fuzzy probability of each subsystem according to a triangular fuzzy function theory to obtain a first probability of the corresponding subsystem.

4. The method of claim 3, wherein determining the triangular fuzzy probability of the corresponding subsystem according to the impairment parameters of each subsystem and the corresponding triangular fuzzy set comprises:

by passing

Determining the jth triangular fuzzy probability of the subsystem in the target system;

wherein j isThe jth probability level of subsystem in the target system,

is the jth triangular blur probability of subsystem in the target system,

a triangular fuzzy set corresponding to the jth probability grade of the subsystem in the target system;

if the repair loss parameter corresponding to the jth probability level of the subsystem in of the target system is the failure frequency in the second time period, determining that the repair loss parameter is the failure frequency in the second time period

If the repair loss parameter corresponding to the jth probability level of the subsystem in of the target system is time consumed by one-time repair, determining that the repair loss parameter is the time consumed by one-time repair

5. The method of claim 3, wherein the quantifying the triangular fuzzy probability of each subsystem according to the triangular fuzzy function theory to obtain the first probability of the corresponding subsystem comprises:

by passing

Obtaining a triangular blur probability of a subsystem in the target system, wherein,

in order to be the left-hand blur area,

in order to blur the center of the collection,

the right-hand side of the blur area,

the triangular fuzzy probabilities corresponding to the 1 st to j probability levels in the subsystem in of the target system,

the triangular fuzzy probability of the subsystem in the target system;

by passing

Obtaining a first probability of a subsystem in the target system, wherein P_inIs a first probability of a subsystem in the target system.

6. The method of any one of claims 1 to 5, wherein the obtaining of the probability f of different systems over a first time period_{Allow for}The method comprises the following steps:

determining a number of the different systems and a number of deaths of the different systems within the first time period;

determining a mortality magnitude for the different systems based on the number of the different systems and the number of deaths for the different systems during the first time period;

determining the probability f of the different system during a first time period based on the magnitude of lethality of the different system_{Allow for}。

7. The method according to any one of claims 2 to 5, further comprising:

confirming steady-state availability of the at least two intermediate systems according to a first probability of the at least two intermediate systems based on Markov theory;

comparing the steady state availability of the at least two intermediate systems to obtain the minimum steady state availability of the target system;

outputting reminding information based on the minimum steady-state availability of the target system and the safety integrity level of the target system;

and the reminding information is used for reminding the increase of the safety of the target system.

8. A target system security rating apparatus, the apparatus comprising:

the first acquisition module is used for acquiring the probability grade of each subsystem in the target system;

a first determining module for determining a first probability of the target system based on the probability level of each subsystem in the target system;

a second obtaining module for determining a probability of occurrence of an intermediate event of the target system based on a hypothesis;

a second determining module, configured to determine a second probability f of the target system according to the first probability of the target system and an occurrence probability of an intermediate event of the target system;

a third obtaining module for obtaining the probability f of different systems in the first time period_{Allow for}；

A third determination module for a second probability f of the target system and a probability f of the different system over a first time period_{Allow for}Determining the risk reduction factor RRF ═ f/f_{Allow for}；

And the fourth determining module is used for determining the safety integrity level of the target system according to the risk reduction factor.

9. A target system security rating device, comprising: a memory storing a computer program operable on the processor and a processor implementing the steps of the method of any one of claims 1 to 7 when the computer program is executed by the processor.

10. A computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored which, when being executed by a processor, carries out the steps of the method of any one of claims 1 to 7.

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