CN114460389A - Remaining life detection method, system and storage medium - Google Patents
Remaining life detection method, system and storage medium Download PDFInfo
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- CN114460389A CN114460389A CN202111394698.6A CN202111394698A CN114460389A CN 114460389 A CN114460389 A CN 114460389A CN 202111394698 A CN202111394698 A CN 202111394698A CN 114460389 A CN114460389 A CN 114460389A
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Abstract
The application relates to a remaining life detection method, a system and a storage medium thereof. The remaining life detection method comprises the following steps: acquiring the hot spot temperature of the transformer to be measured, wherein the hot spot temperature is the highest temperature in the winding; and calculating the hot spot temperature and the expected life of the transformer to be tested to obtain a first residual life, wherein the first residual life is used for representing the estimated value of the residual life of the transformer to be tested. The invention can obtain the residual service life of the transformer to be tested, and is beneficial to improving the reliability and stability of the transformer to be tested.
Description
Technical Field
The present application relates to the field of power equipment life detection technologies, and in particular, to a remaining life detection method, system, and storage medium.
Background
In the field of power equipment, the reliability and stability of the operation of a transformer to be tested directly determine whether power resources can be safely and reliably provided for users. In order to ensure the daily power consumption requirements of people, the reliability and stability of the transformer to be tested are researched and considered to be important problems in the field of power equipment.
At present, the reliability and stability of the transformer to be tested are mainly judged according to the current aging degree of the transformer to be tested, and in practical application, the insulation oil is gradually aged due to the continuous use of the transformer to be tested, so that the characteristic gas and the characteristic organic matter are dissolved and accumulated in the insulation oil, and therefore, in daily application, whether the transformer to be tested has an aging phenomenon and the aging degree of the transformer to be tested can be monitored according to the change condition of the content of the characteristic gas and the content of the characteristic organic matter; it should be noted that, after the aging phenomenon occurs, the operational reliability and stability of the transformer to be tested are still maintained at a higher level within a certain time, and the transformer to be tested is still usable at this time.
However, the remaining service life of the transformer to be tested under the current aging degree cannot be accurately detected in the existing method, so that power maintenance personnel cannot be reminded to maintain the transformer to be tested (for example, insulating oil of the current transformer to be tested is replaced or the current transformer to be tested is directly replaced by other transformers to be tested) to ensure normal supply of power resources, and thus the reliability and stability of the transformer to be tested are low.
Disclosure of Invention
Accordingly, it is desirable to provide a method, a system and a storage medium for detecting a remaining life of a transformer to be tested, which are directed to the technical problems of low reliability and stability of the transformer to be tested.
The invention provides a remaining life detection method, which is used for detecting the remaining life of a transformer to be detected, wherein the transformer to be detected comprises a winding, and the method comprises the following steps:
acquiring the hot spot temperature of the transformer to be measured; wherein the hot spot temperature is a highest temperature in the winding;
calculating the hot spot temperature and the expected life of the transformer to be tested to obtain a first residual life; and the first residual life is used for representing the estimated value of the residual life of the transformer to be tested.
In one embodiment, the step of calculating the hot spot temperature and the expected life of the transformer to be tested to obtain a first remaining life includes:
calculating the hot spot temperature to obtain a relative thermal aging rate; the relative thermal aging rate is used for representing the relative loss rate of the service life of the transformer to be tested;
calculating according to the relative thermal aging rate and the running time information of the transformer to be tested to obtain the loss life of the transformer to be tested;
and calculating the difference value according to the expected life of the transformer to be tested and the loss life of the transformer to be tested to obtain the first residual life.
In one embodiment, the transformer to be tested further comprises insulating oil, and the winding is soaked in the insulating oil; the method comprises the following steps of obtaining the hotspot temperature of the transformer to be measured, wherein the steps comprise:
acquiring first characteristic information; wherein the first characteristic information is used for characterizing the dissolved concentration information of characteristic gas in the insulating oil, and the characteristic gas comprises at least one of carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, propane, ethylene and propylene;
and calculating the first characteristic information by using a first preset function to acquire the hotspot temperature.
In one embodiment, the transformer to be tested further comprises insulating oil, and the winding is soaked in the insulating oil; the method for acquiring the hot spot temperature of the transformer to be measured comprises the following steps:
acquiring second characteristic information; the second characteristic information comprises temperature information of the insulating oil and a load coefficient of the transformer to be tested, and the load coefficient is a ratio of a load current and a rated current of the transformer to be tested;
and calculating the second characteristic information and preset parameters by using a second preset function to obtain the hot spot temperature.
In one embodiment, when the cooling mode of the insulating oil of the transformer to be tested is natural oil circulation cooling, the step of acquiring the second characteristic information includes:
acquiring the temperature of top oil; the temperature of the top layer oil is temperature information of the insulating oil positioned at the top of the winding;
in the step of calculating the second characteristic information and the preset parameters by using a second preset function to obtain the temperature of the hot spot, the preset parameters comprise the temperature index of the winding and the temperature rise of the hot spot of the winding to the top layer oil.
In one embodiment, when the cooling manner of the insulating oil of the transformer to be tested is forced oil circulation cooling, the step of acquiring the second characteristic information includes:
acquiring the temperature of bottom oil; the temperature of the bottom layer oil is temperature information of the insulating oil positioned at the bottom of the winding;
in the step of calculating the second characteristic information and the preset parameters by using a second preset function to obtain the hot spot temperature, the preset parameters comprise the temperature index of the winding, the average temperature rise of the insulating oil, the temperature rise of the hot spot of the winding to the top layer oil and the temperature rise of the bottom layer oil, and the temperature rise of the bottom layer oil is the temperature rise of the transformer to be measured to the insulating oil positioned at the bottom of the winding under the rated load.
In one embodiment, the transformer to be tested further comprises insulating oil, and the winding is soaked in the insulating oil; the method further comprises the following steps:
acquiring third characteristic information of the transformer to be tested; wherein the third characteristic information includes at least one of frequency domain dielectric spectrum information of the insulating oil, dissolved concentration information of characteristic gas, and content information of characteristic organic matter;
predicting the third characteristic information by using a pre-trained residual life prediction model, and acquiring a second residual life according to a prediction result; the second residual life is used for representing a predicted value of the residual life of the transformer to be tested;
and performing weighting calculation according to the first residual life and the second residual life, and determining the calibration value of the residual life of the transformer to be measured according to the weighting calculation result.
In one embodiment, the step of performing weighting calculation according to the first remaining life and the second remaining life, and determining the remaining life of the transformer to be tested according to the weighting calculation result includes:
acquiring the estimation accuracy of the first residual life and the prediction accuracy of the second residual life;
setting a first weight for the second remaining life and a second weight for the first remaining life based on a ratio of the estimated accuracy of the first remaining life to the predicted accuracy of the second remaining life; wherein the sum of the first weight and the second weight is 1;
and performing weighted calculation on the first residual life and the second residual life based on the first weight and the second weight to obtain a calibration value of the residual life of the transformer to be measured.
In one embodiment, the step of obtaining the predicted accuracy of the second remaining life and the estimated accuracy of the first remaining life comprises:
acquiring a first residual life and a second residual life of a plurality of reference transformers with known actual residual lives;
if the difference value between the first residual life and the actual residual life of the reference transformer is smaller than a preset threshold value, determining that the reference transformer is accurately estimated;
setting a ratio of the number of reference transformers which are accurately predicted to the total number of all reference transformers as an estimation accuracy of the first remaining life;
if the difference value between the second residual life and the actual residual life of the reference transformer is smaller than the preset threshold value, the reference transformer which is accurately predicted is judged;
setting a ratio of the number of the reference transformers which is estimated to be accurate to the total number of all the reference transformers as an estimation accuracy of the second remaining life.
A residual life detection system is connected with a transformer to be detected and used for detecting the residual life of the transformer to be detected, wherein the transformer to be detected comprises a winding; the system comprises a temperature measurement module and a life calculation module, wherein:
the temperature measuring module is used for acquiring the hot spot temperature of the transformer to be measured; wherein the hot spot temperature is the highest temperature in the winding;
the service life calculation module is used for estimating and calculating the hotspot temperature and the expected service life of the transformer to be measured so as to obtain a first residual service life; wherein the first residual life is used for representing the estimated value of the residual life of the transformer to be tested.
A remaining life detecting system comprising a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, and wherein the processor implements the steps of the remaining life detecting method when executing the computer program.
A computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored which, when being executed by a processor, carries out the steps of the above-mentioned remaining-life detecting method.
In the method, the system and the storage medium for detecting the residual life, the hot spot temperature of the transformer to be detected is detected, and the hot spot temperature and the expected life of the transformer to be detected are calculated to obtain the first residual life, so that the power maintenance personnel can carry out corresponding maintenance work on the transformer to be detected according to the change condition of the first residual life, the normal supply of power resources is favorably ensured, and the reliability and the stability of the application of the transformer to be detected in a power supply system are improved.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments or the conventional technologies of the present application, the drawings needed to be used in the description of the embodiments or the conventional technologies will be briefly introduced below, it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present application, and for those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained according to the drawings without any creative efforts. Wherein:
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a method for detecting remaining life in an embodiment;
FIG. 2 is a schematic flow chart diagram illustrating the steps for calculating the first remaining life in one embodiment;
FIG. 3 is a schematic flow chart illustrating the step of obtaining the hotspot temperature in one embodiment;
FIG. 4 is a schematic flow chart illustrating the step of obtaining the hotspot temperature in another embodiment;
FIG. 5 is a flowchart illustrating the steps of calculating the calibrated value of the remaining life of the transformer under test in one embodiment;
FIG. 6 is a flow diagram illustrating the steps of the weighting calculation in one embodiment;
FIG. 7 is a flowchart illustrating the steps of the first and second weight calculations in one embodiment;
fig. 8 is a schematic block diagram of a remaining life detection system in one embodiment.
DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF EMBODIMENT (S) OF INVENTION
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present application more apparent, the present application is described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the present application and are not intended to limit the present application.
In one embodiment, as shown in fig. 1, the present invention provides a remaining life detection method applied to a remaining life detection system as shown in fig. 8. The residual life detection method is used for detecting the residual life of the transformer to be detected, and the transformer to be detected comprises insulating oil and a winding soaked in the insulating oil.
The method comprises the following steps:
and 102, acquiring the hot spot temperature of the transformer to be measured.
In step 102, the hot spot temperature is the highest temperature in the winding, and in practical application, the size of the hot spot temperature of the winding of the transformer to be tested can reflect the loss life of the transformer to be tested to a certain extent.
And 104, estimating and calculating the hot spot temperature and the expected life of the transformer to be tested to obtain a first residual life.
Wherein, in the calculation of the step 104, at least one of the parameters of the Design Life DL (DL means Design Life), the loss Life LL (LL means Lost Life) and the residual Life RL (RL means Rest Life) of the transformer to be tested is involved; specifically, firstly, the loss life LL (LL means the loss life) of the transformer to be measured can be calculated and obtained according to the hot spot temperature of the windingLost Life); then, the expected Life of the transformer to be tested is called, that is, the expected Life of the transformer to be tested is obtained, in some embodiments, if the transformer to be tested is used for the first time, the expected Life of the transformer to be tested is the Design Life DL (DL means Design Life) of the transformer to be tested, if the transformer to be tested is not used for the first time, the expected Life of the transformer to be tested is not the Design Life DL, and at this time, the residual Life RL of the transformer to be tested, which is obtained by calculation after the last use, can be used as the expected Life of the current use; and finally, calculating according to the expected life and the loss life LL of the transformer to be tested to obtain a first residual life, wherein the first residual life is an estimated value RL of the residual life of the transformer to be tested in the current use1。
In the method, the system and the storage medium for detecting the residual life, the hot spot temperature of the transformer to be detected is detected, and the hot spot temperature and the expected life of the transformer to be detected are calculated to obtain the first residual life, so that power maintenance personnel can carry out corresponding maintenance work on the transformer to be detected according to the change condition of the first residual life, the normal supply of power resources is favorably ensured, and the reliability and the stability of the application of the transformer to be detected in a power supply system are improved.
As shown in fig. 2, in some embodiments, the step of calculating the hot spot temperature and the expected life of the transformer to be tested to obtain the first remaining life includes:
In step 202, since the transformer to be tested operates under a relatively stable condition (i.e. under the condition that the load of the transformer to be tested is not changed and the temperature of the environment is not changed), the relative loss rate V of the lifetime of the transformer to be tested may be approximately equal to the relative thermal aging rate Vt(t represents the running time of the transformer under test), i.e. V ═ VtThen, the relative thermal aging rate V of the transformer to be tested can be utilizedtTo characterize the relative loss rate V of life of the transformer under test. Specifically, the relative loss rate V is calculated according to the following formula (1):
in the formula, T is the hot spot temperature of the winding, and V is the relative thermal aging rate of the transformer to be tested.
And step 204, calculating according to the relative thermal aging rate and the running time information of the transformer to be tested to obtain the loss life of the transformer to be tested.
Wherein, in step 204, the relative thermal aging rate V is determinedtAnd performing integral calculation with time, wherein the integral calculation result can reflect the thermal aging degree of the transformer to be measured, the thermal aging degree of the transformer to be measured directly reflects the loss life LL of the transformer to be measured, and V is used for calculating the integral of the transformer to be measuredtV, the loss lifetime LL can be calculated according to the following equation (2):
wherein V is the relative thermal aging rate of the transformer to be tested (V2)(T-98)/6) T1 is the first use time of the transformer to be tested, t2 is the second use time of the transformer to be tested, and the units of t1 and t2 are year (y); it should be further noted that the first using time t1 is a time when the transformer to be tested is used before the current use, if the transformer to be tested is used, t1 > 0, and if the transformer to be tested is not used, t1 is 0; the second usage time t2 is a time when the accumulation of the transformer to be measured is used. In some embodiments, if the transformer to be tested is not used before the current time, t1 is 0, and if the transformer to be tested is used for 2 years after the current time of starting operation, t2 is 2 (years), the lost life LL is the life lost by the transformer to be tested in 2 years after the current time of starting operation; of course, in other embodiments, if the transformer to be tested is used for 1 year before the current time, t1 is 1 (year), and if the transformer to be tested is used for 3 years after the current start operation (i.e. the accumulated usage is 4 years), t2 is 4 (years), then the loss is reducedThe loss of life LL is the life lost by the transformer to be tested being used for 3 years after the current start-up operation.
And step 206, calculating a difference value according to the expected life of the transformer to be tested and the loss life of the transformer to be tested to obtain a first residual life.
In step 206, a difference between the expected life and the loss life of the transformer to be tested is calculated, where the result of the difference calculation is the remaining life of the transformer to be tested currently used, that is, the remaining life is the expected life — the loss life; in some embodiments, when the transformer to be tested is used for the first time, the expected life is equal to the design life DL, and the remaining life RL of the transformer to be tested is equal to DL-LL.
It should be noted that the calculation method of the hot spot temperature of the transformer to be measured in the step 102 is not limited, and for convenience of understanding, the following specific examples are given to illustrate, including but not limited to the following two ways:
firstly, the current hot spot temperature of the transformer to be measured is calculated based on a DGA (totally Dissolved Gas Analysis) method. Specifically, as shown in fig. 3, in some embodiments, the step of obtaining the hot spot temperature of the transformer to be measured includes:
Wherein, in step 302, the first characteristic information is used for characterizing the dissolved concentration information of the characteristic gas in the insulating oil. It should be noted that, with the continuous use of the transformer to be tested, the characteristic gas is dissolved and accumulated in the insulating oil, the content of the characteristic gas can affect the insulating property of the insulating oil, and the insulating property of the insulating oil determines the hot point temperature of the winding of the transformer to be tested, so that in some embodiments, the hot point temperature of the winding of the transformer to be tested in the operation process can be calculated according to the dissolved concentration information of the characteristic gas by obtaining the dissolved concentration information of the characteristic gas, thereby realizing the calculation of the remaining life of the transformer to be tested; it is worth mentioning that the specific type of characteristic gas can be determined according to the actual use, such asIn some embodiments, the characteristic gas includes, but is not limited to, carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO)2) Hydrogen (H)2) Methane (CH)4) Ethane (C)2H6) Propane (C)3H8) Ethylene (C)2H4) Acetylene (C)2H2) And propylene (C)3H6) At least one of (1).
In step 304, a first preset function can be specifically set according to different temperature conditions and different types of characteristic gases, for example, the first characteristic information includes carbon monoxide (CO) and carbon dioxide (CO)2) Propane (C)3H8) Ethylene (C)2H4) And propylene (C)3H6) The first predetermined function includes, but is not limited to, the following equations (3) - (7) under different temperature conditions in this step 304:
when the temperature exceeds 400 ℃, any one of the following formulas (3), (4) and (5) is used as a first preset function, and the first preset function is specifically as follows:
At a temperature of less than 300 ℃, using the following formula (6) as a first preset function:
T＝-241log(CO2CO) +373, formula (6); according to carbon dioxide (CO)2) And the dissolved concentration of carbon monoxide (CO) were calculated for equation (6) to obtain the hotspot temperature T.
At temperatures greater than 300 ℃, using the following equation (7) as a first preset function:
T＝-1196log(CO2/CO) +660, formula (7); according to carbon dioxide (CO)2) And the dissolved concentration of carbon monoxide (CO) were calculated for equation (7) to obtain the hotspot temperature T.
And secondly, calculating based on the temperature information of the insulating oil of the transformer to be measured and the load current of the transformer to be measured. Specifically, as shown in fig. 4, in some embodiments, the step of obtaining the hot spot temperature of the transformer to be measured includes:
In step 402, the second characteristic information includes temperature information of the insulating oil and a load coefficient of the transformer to be tested, where the load coefficient K is a load current I and a rated current I of the transformer to be testedhThe ratio of (A) to (B); specifically, the temperature information of the insulating oil can be specifically set according to the cooling mode of the insulating oil, and the rated current I of the transformer to be testedhIs preset, rated current IhThe value of (A) is determined at the design stage of the transformer to be tested, so that in practical application, the load current of the transformer to be tested needs to be detected, and the load current I and the rated current I of the transformer to be tested are determined according to the load current I and the rated current I of the transformer to be testedhThe ratio calculation is performed to obtain the load factor K.
And step 404, calculating the second characteristic information and the preset parameters by using a second preset function to obtain the hot spot temperature.
In step 404, the second preset function can be specifically set according to different insulation oil cooling manners. Specifically, the method comprises the following steps:
and when the cooling mode of the insulating oil of the transformer to be measured is natural oil circulation cooling, calculating by taking the following formula (8) as a second preset function to obtain the hotspot temperature:
the parameters in the above formula (8) have the following meanings:
θh-the hot spot temperature of the winding (unit:. degree. C.);
θa-ambient temperature (unit:. degree. C.); in some embodiments, the temperature of the environment where the transformer to be tested is located may be detected in real time as the environment temperature θaOf course, in other embodiments, the ambient temperature θ may be setaPresetting to 20 ℃;
Δθorthe temperature rise of the top layer oil under rated load (unit: DEG C); for example, in some embodiments, Δ θorCan be preset to 55 ℃;
r is the ratio between the load loss and the no-load loss at rated load; for example, in some embodiments, R may be preset to 5;
k-load factor, i.e. the ratio of load current to rated current (I/I)h) (ii) a For example, in some embodiments, the load factor K needs to be calculated by detecting the load current of the transformer to be tested;
x is oil temperature index; for example, in some embodiments, when the transformer to be tested is a distribution transformer to be tested, x may be preset to 0.8, and when the transformer to be tested is a medium-large power transformer to be tested, x may be preset to 0.9;
Hgr-temperature rise of the hot spot of the winding at rated load to the top layer oil; for example, in some embodiments, HgrMay be preset at 23 ℃;
y-temperature index of the winding; for example, in some embodiments, y is preset to 1.6.
Further, in some embodiments, temperature sensing may be providedThe device is used for realizing the on-line monitoring of the temperature information of the transformer to be measured, namely the temperature sensor can be directly utilized to obtain the temperature T of the top layer oil1。
The step of acquiring the second characteristic information includes:
obtaining the top oil temperature T1(ii) a Wherein the top layer oil temperature T1Is the temperature information of the insulating oil located on top of the winding. Namely, the temperature sensor can be directly utilized to obtain the temperature T of the top layer oil1。
In the step of calculating the second characteristic information and the preset parameter by using the second preset function to obtain the hotspot temperature, the second characteristic information and the preset parameter are calculated according to the second preset function
(i.e., the sum of the first term and the second term in the above formula (8)) means the top oil temperature T1Therefore, the above equation (8) can be simplified to the following equation (8-1) as the second preset function:
θh＝T1+HgrKyformula (8-1);
when the above formula (8-1) is used as the second preset function to calculate the hot spot temperature, the preset parameters include the temperature index y of the winding and the temperature rise Hg of the hot spot of the winding to the top layer oilr. Wherein the hot spot of the winding increases the temperature Hg of the top layer oilrThe temperature rise of the hot point of the winding to the insulating oil (namely top oil) positioned at the top of the winding is realized under the rated load of the transformer to be tested.
And when the cooling mode of the insulating oil of the transformer to be measured is forced oil circulation cooling, calculating by taking the following formula (9) as a second preset function to obtain the hot spot temperature:
the parameters in the above formula (9) have the following meanings:
θh-the hot spot temperature of the winding (unit:. degree. C.);
θa-ambient temperature (unit:. degree. C.); in some casesIn the embodiment, the temperature of the environment where the transformer to be detected is located can be detected in real time to serve as the environment temperature thetaaOf course, in other embodiments, the ambient temperature θ may be setaPresetting to be 20 ℃;
Δθorthe temperature rise of the top layer oil under rated load (unit: DEG C); for example, in some embodiments, Δ θorCan be preset to 40 ℃;
r is the ratio between the load loss and the no-load loss under the rated load; for example, in some embodiments, R may be preset to 5;
k-load factor, i.e. the ratio of load current to rated current (I/I)h) (ii) a For example, in some embodiments, the load factor K needs to be calculated by detecting the load current of the transformer to be tested;
x is oil temperature index; for example, in some embodiments, the transformer to be tested x of the transformer to be tested may be preset to 1.0;
Δθbr-temperature rise of the bottom oil at rated load; for example, in some embodiments, Δ θbrCan be preset to 36 ℃;
Δθimraverage temperature rise of insulating oil, Delta thetaimrCan be preset to 46 ℃;
Hgr-temperature rise of the hot spot of the winding at rated load to the top layer oil; for example, in some embodiments, HgrMay be preset to 38 ℃;
y-temperature index of the winding; for example, in some embodiments, y is preset to 1.6;
it should be noted that the top layer oil is insulating oil located at the top of the winding, and the bottom layer oil is insulating oil located at the bottom of the winding.
Further, in some embodiments, a temperature sensor may be provided to realize online monitoring of temperature information of the transformer to be measured, that is, the temperature sensor may be directly utilized to obtain the temperature T of the bottom oil2。
The step of acquiring the second characteristic information includes:
obtainingBottom oil temperature T2(ii) a Wherein the bottom layer oil temperature T2Is the temperature information of the insulating oil at the bottom of the winding. Namely, the temperature sensor can be directly utilized to obtain the temperature T of the bottom oil2。
In the step of calculating the second characteristic information and the preset parameter by using the second preset function to obtain the temperature of the hot spot, the second characteristic information and the preset parameter are calculated by using the second preset function
(i.e., the sum of the first term and the second term in the above formula (9)) means the top oil temperature T2Therefore, the above equation (9) can be simplified to the following equation (9-1) as the second preset function:
θh＝T2+2[Δθimr-Δθbr]Ky+HgrKyformula (9-1);
when the formula (9-1) is used as a second preset function to calculate the temperature of the hot spot, the preset parameters comprise the temperature index y of the winding and the average temperature rise delta theta of the insulating oilimrThe temperature rise Hg of the hot spot of the winding to the top layer oilrAnd bottom layer oil temperature rise Δ θbr. Wherein the hot point of the winding increases the temperature Hg of the top layer oilrIn order to increase the temperature of the hot point of the winding to the insulating oil (namely top oil) positioned at the top of the winding and increase the temperature of bottom oil by delta theta under the rated load of the transformer to be testedbrThe temperature rise of the transformer to be tested to the insulating oil at the bottom of the winding under rated load is realized. In some embodiments, with the continuous use of the transformer to be tested, the characteristic gas and the characteristic organic matter are dissolved and accumulated in the insulating oil, the content of the characteristic gas and the content of the characteristic organic matter can affect the insulating property of the insulating oil, and the insulating property of the insulating oil determines the hot point temperature of the winding of the transformer to be tested, so that in some embodiments, the hot point temperature of the winding of the transformer to be tested in the operation process can be calculated according to the dissolved concentration information of the characteristic gas and/or the content information of the characteristic organic matter by obtaining the dissolved concentration information of the characteristic gas and/or the content information of the characteristic organic matter, thereby realizing the calculation of the residual life of the transformer to be tested; it is worth mentioning thatThe specific types of gases and characteristic organic substances may be determined based on the actual application, for example, in some embodiments, the characteristic gases include, but are not limited to, carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO)2) Hydrogen (H)2) Methane (CH)4) Ethane (C)2H6) Propane (C)3H8) Ethylene (C)2H4) Acetylene (C)2H2) And propylene (C)3H6) And the characteristic organic includes, but is not limited to, furfural.
As shown in fig. 5, the remaining life detection method further includes the following steps:
and 502, acquiring third characteristic information of the transformer to be tested.
In step 502, the third characteristic information includes at least one of frequency domain dielectric spectrum information of the insulating oil, dissolved concentration information of the characteristic gas, and content information of the characteristic organic matter; for example, in some implementations, frequency domain dielectric spectrum information of the insulating oil, dissolved concentration information of the characteristic gas, and content information of the characteristic organic matter are used.
And step 504, performing prediction processing on the third characteristic information by using a pre-trained residual life prediction model, and acquiring a second residual life according to a prediction result.
In step 504, the second remaining life is used to represent a predicted value of the remaining life of the transformer to be tested; it should be noted that, before step 504 is executed, training is performed on training parameters acquired in advance through a preset neural network model, the model obtained after training is used as a residual life prediction model, and the training parameters include at least one of frequency domain dielectric spectrum information of insulating oil of the transformer to be tested under different aging degrees, characteristic gas dissolved concentration information, and characteristic organic matter content information.
And step 506, performing weighting calculation according to the first residual life and the second residual life, and determining a calibration value of the residual life of the transformer to be measured according to a weighting calculation result.
As shown in fig. 6, in some embodiments, the step of performing a weighting calculation according to the first remaining life and the second remaining life, and determining the remaining life of the transformer to be tested according to the weighting calculation result includes:
in step 602, the estimation accuracy of the first remaining life and the prediction accuracy of the second remaining life are obtained.
In step 602, the estimation accuracy of the first remaining life and the prediction accuracy of the second remaining life may be obtained by methods including, but not limited to: firstly, presetting by a user; and secondly, carrying out a residual life detection experiment on a large number of transformers with known actual residual lives, and calculating according to a preset calculation rule to obtain the residual life detection experiment. For example, in some embodiments, the estimated accuracy for the first remaining life is 90% and the predicted accuracy for the second remaining life is 80%.
In step 604, a first weight is set for the second remaining life and a second weight is set for the first remaining life based on a ratio of the estimated accuracy of the first remaining life to the predicted accuracy of the second remaining life.
Wherein, in step 604, the sum of the first weight and the second weight is 1; for example, in some embodiments, when the estimated accuracy of the first remaining life is 90% and the predicted accuracy of the second remaining life is 80%, then the first weight of the first remaining life is w1 ═ 90%/(80% + 90%) approximately 0.53 and the second weight of the second remaining life is w2 ═ 80%/(80% + 90%) approximately 0.47.
And 606, performing weighted calculation on the first residual life and the second residual life based on the first weight and the second weight to obtain a calibration value of the residual life of the transformer to be measured.
In step 606, the calibration value of the remaining life of the transformer to be measured is the first remaining life x the first weight + the second remaining life x the second weight, and the calibration value of the remaining life of the transformer to be measured is used as the final output result; for example, in some embodiments, the first weight w1 is 0.53, the second weight w2 is 0.47, the first remaining life is 10.8 years, and the second remaining life is 10.1 years, and the calibration value of the remaining life of the transformer to be tested is 10.8 w1+ 10.53 +10.1 w2 is 10.8 h 10.53 +10.1 h 0.47 h 10.5 years.
Through the step 602 and 606, the calibration value of the remaining life of the transformer to be tested can be obtained, and the calibration value of the remaining life of the transformer to be tested is closer to the actual remaining life of the transformer to be tested, which is beneficial to improving the detection precision of the remaining life, effectively ensures the accuracy of the output result of the final remaining life detection, and can better provide more reliable data for power maintenance personnel.
As shown in fig. 7, in some embodiments, the step of obtaining the predicted accuracy of the second remaining life and the estimated accuracy of the first remaining life includes:
wherein, in step 702, the number of reference transformers is unlimited; for example, in some embodiments, an experiment is performed on 100 reference transformers with known actual remaining lives and different actual remaining lives, the first remaining lives of the 100 reference transformers are obtained by estimating according to experimental data of the reference transformers, and the experimental data of the reference transformers are input into the remaining life prediction model to obtain second remaining lives of the 100 reference transformers.
in step 704, for example, in some embodiments, the preset threshold is 1, and when the difference between the first remaining life and the actual remaining life of the reference transformer is less than 1, it is determined that the reference transformer is estimated accurately, that is, the estimation of the first remaining life of the reference transformer is accurate.
in step 706, in one embodiment, if there are 90 accurate reference transformers out of the 100 reference transformers, the estimation accuracy of the first remaining life is 100 ÷ 90 × 100% ═ 90%.
In step 708, if the difference between the second remaining life and the actual remaining life of the reference transformer is less than the preset threshold, the reference transformer is determined to be accurately predicted.
In step 708, for example, in some embodiments, the preset threshold is 1, and when the difference between the second remaining life of the reference transformer and the actual remaining life of the reference transformer is less than 1, it is determined that the reference transformer is predicted accurately, that is, the prediction of the second remaining life of the reference transformer is accurate.
And step 710, setting the ratio of the number of the reference transformers which are accurately estimated to the total number of all the reference transformers as the estimation accuracy of the second residual life.
In step 710, in one embodiment, if there are 80 reference transformers with accurate prediction from the 100 reference transformers, the prediction accuracy of the second remaining life is 100 ÷ 80 × 100% ═ 80%.
It should be understood that although the various steps in the flowcharts of fig. 1-7 are shown in order as indicated by the arrows, the steps are not necessarily performed in order as indicated by the arrows. The steps are not performed in the exact order shown and described, and may be performed in other orders, unless explicitly stated otherwise. Moreover, at least some of the steps in fig. 1-7 may include multiple steps or multiple stages, which are not necessarily performed at the same time, but may be performed at different times, which are not necessarily performed in sequence, but may be performed in turn or alternately with other steps or at least some of the other steps or stages.
Referring to fig. 8, in an embodiment, the present invention provides a remaining life detecting system 800 to which the remaining life detecting method can be applied, the remaining life detecting system 800 is connected to a transformer 900 to be detected for detecting a remaining life of the transformer 900 to be detected, and the transformer 900 to be detected includes insulating oil and a winding immersed in the insulating oil. Specifically, the remaining life detecting system 800 includes a temperature measuring module 810 and a life calculating module 820, and the temperature measuring module 810 is connected to the life calculating module 820.
Wherein:
the temperature measuring module 810 is used for acquiring the hot spot temperature of the transformer to be measured; wherein the hot spot temperature is the highest temperature in the winding.
The life calculation module 820 is used for estimating and calculating the hot spot temperature and the expected life of the transformer to be tested to obtain a first remaining life; the expected life of the transformer to be tested is used for representing the expected life of the transformer to be tested, and the first residual life of the transformer to be tested with the first residual life is used for representing the estimated value of the residual life of the transformer to be tested.
In some embodiments, the life calculating module 820 is further configured to calculate the hot spot temperature to obtain a relative thermal aging rate, where the relative thermal aging rate is used to represent a relative loss rate of the life of the transformer to be tested; calculating according to the relative thermal aging rate and the running time information of the transformer to be tested to obtain the loss life of the transformer to be tested; and calculating a difference value according to the expected life of the transformer to be tested and the loss life of the transformer to be tested to obtain a first residual life.
In some embodiments, the temperature measurement module 810 is further configured to obtain first characteristic information, where the first characteristic information is used to characterize dissolved concentration information of a characteristic gas in the insulating oil, and the characteristic gas includes at least one of carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, propane, ethylene, and propylene; and calculating the first characteristic information by using a first preset function to acquire the hotspot temperature.
In some embodiments, the temperature measurement module 810 is further configured to obtain second characteristic information, where the second characteristic information includes temperature information of the insulating oil and a load coefficient of the transformer to be tested, and the load coefficient is a ratio of a load current and a rated current of the transformer to be tested; and calculating the second characteristic information and the preset parameters by using a second preset function to acquire the hotspot temperature.
In one embodiment, the temperature measuring block 810 is further configured to obtain a top layer oil temperature when the cooling mode of the insulating oil of the transformer to be measured is natural oil circulation cooling, where the top layer oil temperature is temperature information of the insulating oil located at the top of the winding; and calculating the second characteristic information, the temperature index of the winding and the temperature rise of the top layer oil by using a second preset function so as to obtain the temperature of the hot spot.
In one embodiment, the temperature measuring module 810 is further configured to obtain a bottom oil temperature when the cooling mode of the insulating oil of the transformer to be tested is forced oil circulation cooling, where the bottom oil temperature is temperature information of the insulating oil located at the bottom of the winding; and utilizing a second preset function to perform second characteristic information, the temperature index of the winding, the average temperature rise of the insulating oil, the temperature rise of the hot point of the winding to the top layer oil and the temperature rise of the bottom layer oil.
In one embodiment, the remaining life detecting system 800 further includes a storage module 830 connected to the temperature measuring module 810 and the life calculating module 820, respectively, and the storage module 830 is configured to store a pre-trained remaining life prediction model;
the life calculation module 820 is further configured to obtain third characteristic information of the transformer to be tested, where the third characteristic information includes at least one of frequency domain dielectric spectrum information of the insulating oil, dissolved concentration information of the characteristic gas, and content information of the characteristic organic matter; calling a pre-trained residual life prediction model from the storage module 830 to perform prediction processing on the third characteristic information, and obtaining a second residual life according to a prediction result, wherein the second residual life is used for representing a predicted value of the residual life of the transformer to be tested; and performing weighting calculation according to the first residual life and the second residual life, and determining the residual life of the transformer to be measured according to a weighting calculation result.
In one embodiment, the life calculation module 820 is further configured to obtain an estimated accuracy of the first remaining life and a predicted accuracy of the second remaining life; setting a first weight for the second remaining life and a second weight for the first remaining life based on a ratio of the estimation accuracy of the first remaining life to the prediction accuracy of the second remaining life, wherein the sum of the first weight and the second weight is 1; and performing weighted calculation on the first residual life and the second residual life based on the first weight and the second weight to obtain a calibration value of the residual life of the transformer to be measured.
In one embodiment, the life calculation module 820 is further configured to obtain a first remaining life and a second remaining life of a plurality of reference transformers with known actual remaining lives; if the difference value between the first residual life and the actual residual life of the reference transformer is smaller than a preset threshold value, determining that the reference transformer is accurately estimated; setting the ratio of the number of the reference transformers which are accurately predicted to the total number of all the reference transformers as the prediction accuracy of the first residual life; if the difference value between the second residual life and the actual residual life of the reference transformer is smaller than a preset threshold value, the reference transformer with accurate prediction is judged; and setting the ratio of the number of the reference transformers which are accurately estimated to the total number of all the reference transformers as the estimation accuracy of the second residual life.
It will be understood by those skilled in the art that the configuration shown in fig. 8 is a block diagram of only a portion of the configuration associated with the present application, and does not constitute a limitation on the remaining life detection system to which the present application is applied, and a particular remaining life detection system may include more or less components than those shown in the drawings, or may combine some components, or have a different arrangement of components.
A remaining life detection system comprises a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, and the processor realizes the steps of the remaining life detection method when executing the computer program.
A computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored which, when being executed by a processor, carries out the steps of the method of residual life detection described above.
It will be understood by those skilled in the art that all or part of the processes of the methods of the embodiments described above can be implemented by hardware instructions of a computer program, which can be stored in a non-volatile computer-readable storage medium, and when executed, can include the processes of the embodiments of the methods described above. Any reference to memory, storage, database or other medium used in the embodiments provided herein can include at least one of non-volatile and volatile memory. Non-volatile Memory may include Read-Only Memory (ROM), magnetic tape, floppy disk, flash Memory, optical storage, or the like. Volatile Memory can include Random Access Memory (RAM) or external cache Memory. By way of illustration and not limitation, RAM can take many forms, such as Static Random Access Memory (SRAM) or Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM), among others.
The technical features of the above embodiments can be arbitrarily combined, and for the sake of brevity, all possible combinations of the technical features in the above embodiments are not described, but should be considered as the scope of the present specification as long as there is no contradiction between the combinations of the technical features.
The above-mentioned embodiments only express a few embodiments of the present application, and the description thereof is specific and detailed, but not construed as limiting the scope of the invention. It should be noted that, for a person skilled in the art, several variations and modifications can be made without departing from the concept of the present application, which falls within the scope of protection of the present application. Therefore, the protection scope of the present patent application shall be subject to the appended claims.
Claims (10)
1. A method for detecting a remaining life of a transformer to be tested, the transformer to be tested including a winding, the method comprising:
acquiring the hot spot temperature of the transformer to be measured; wherein the hot spot temperature is the highest temperature in the winding;
calculating the hot spot temperature and the expected life of the transformer to be tested to obtain a first residual life; and the first residual life is used for representing the estimated value of the residual life of the transformer to be tested.
2. The method for detecting remaining life according to claim 1, wherein the step of calculating the hot spot temperature and the expected life of the transformer to be tested to obtain the first remaining life comprises:
calculating the hot spot temperature to obtain a relative thermal aging rate; the relative thermal aging rate is used for representing the relative loss rate of the service life of the transformer to be tested;
calculating according to the relative thermal aging rate and the running time information of the transformer to be tested to obtain the loss life of the transformer to be tested;
and calculating a difference value according to the expected life of the transformer to be tested and the loss life of the transformer to be tested to obtain the first residual life.
3. The method for detecting the remaining life according to claim 1, wherein the transformer to be tested further comprises insulating oil, and the winding is soaked in the insulating oil; the method comprises the following steps of obtaining the hotspot temperature of the transformer to be measured, wherein the steps comprise:
acquiring first characteristic information; wherein the first characteristic information is used for characterizing the dissolved concentration information of characteristic gas in the insulating oil, and the characteristic gas comprises at least one of carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, propane, ethylene and propylene;
and calculating the first characteristic information by using a first preset function to acquire the hotspot temperature.
4. The method for detecting the remaining life according to claim 1, wherein the transformer to be tested further comprises insulating oil, and the winding is soaked in the insulating oil; the method comprises the following steps of obtaining the hotspot temperature of the transformer to be measured, wherein the steps comprise:
acquiring second characteristic information; the second characteristic information comprises temperature information of the insulating oil and a load coefficient of the transformer to be tested, and the load coefficient is a ratio of a load current and a rated current of the transformer to be tested;
and calculating the second characteristic information and preset parameters by using a second preset function to acquire the hotspot temperature.
5. The method for detecting remaining life according to claim 4, wherein when the cooling mode of the insulating oil of the transformer to be tested is natural oil circulation cooling, the step of obtaining the second characteristic information includes:
acquiring the temperature of top oil; the temperature of the top layer oil is temperature information of the insulating oil positioned at the top of the winding;
in the step of calculating the second characteristic information and the preset parameters by using a second preset function to obtain the temperature of the hot spot, the preset parameters comprise the temperature index of the winding and the temperature rise of the hot spot of the winding to the top layer oil;
when the cooling mode of the insulating oil of the transformer to be tested is forced oil circulation cooling, the step of obtaining second characteristic information comprises the following steps:
acquiring the temperature of bottom oil; the temperature of the bottom layer oil is temperature information of the insulating oil positioned at the bottom of the winding;
in the step of calculating the second characteristic information and the preset parameters by using a second preset function to obtain the hot spot temperature, the preset parameters comprise the temperature index of the winding, the average temperature rise of the insulating oil, the temperature rise of the hot spot of the winding to the top layer oil and the temperature rise of the bottom layer oil, and the temperature rise of the bottom layer oil to the insulating oil at the bottom of the winding under the rated load of the transformer to be measured.
6. The method for detecting the remaining life according to any one of claims 1 to 5, wherein the transformer to be detected further comprises insulating oil, and the winding is soaked in the insulating oil; the method further comprises the following steps:
acquiring third characteristic information of the transformer to be tested; wherein the third characteristic information includes at least one of frequency domain dielectric spectrum information of the insulating oil, dissolved concentration information of characteristic gas, and content information of characteristic organic matter;
predicting the third characteristic information by using a pre-trained residual life prediction model, and acquiring a second residual life according to a prediction result; the second residual life is used for representing a predicted value of the residual life of the transformer to be tested;
and performing weighting calculation according to the first residual life and the second residual life, and determining the calibration value of the residual life of the transformer to be measured according to the weighting calculation result.
7. The method according to claim 6, wherein the step of performing a weighted calculation according to the first remaining life and the second remaining life and determining the remaining life of the transformer to be tested according to the weighted calculation result comprises:
acquiring the estimation accuracy of the first residual life and the prediction accuracy of the second residual life;
setting a first weight for the second remaining life and a second weight for the first remaining life based on a ratio of the estimated accuracy of the first remaining life to the predicted accuracy of the second remaining life; wherein the sum of the first weight and the second weight is 1;
and performing weighted calculation on the first residual life and the second residual life based on the first weight and the second weight to obtain a calibration value of the residual life of the transformer to be measured.
8. The remaining life detecting method according to claim 7, wherein the step of obtaining the prediction accuracy of the second remaining life and the estimation accuracy of the first remaining life comprises:
acquiring a first residual life and a second residual life of a plurality of reference transformers with known actual residual lives;
if the difference value between the first residual life and the actual residual life of the reference transformer is smaller than a preset threshold value, determining that the reference transformer is accurately estimated;
setting a ratio of the number of reference transformers which are accurately predicted to the total number of all reference transformers as an estimation accuracy of the first remaining life;
if the difference value between the second residual life and the actual residual life of the reference transformer is smaller than the preset threshold value, the reference transformer which is accurately predicted is judged;
setting a ratio of the number of the reference transformers which is estimated accurately to the total number of all the reference transformers as the estimation accuracy of the second remaining life.
9. The system for detecting the residual service life is characterized by being connected with a transformer to be detected and used for detecting the residual service life of the transformer to be detected, wherein the transformer to be detected comprises a winding; the system comprises a temperature measurement module and a life calculation module, wherein:
the temperature measuring module is used for acquiring the hot spot temperature of the transformer to be measured; wherein the hot spot temperature is the highest temperature in the winding;
the service life calculation module is used for estimating and calculating the hot spot temperature and the expected service life of the transformer to be measured so as to obtain a first remaining service life; and the first residual life is used for representing the estimated value of the residual life of the transformer to be tested.
10. A remaining life detection system comprising a memory and a processor, the memory storing a computer program, characterized in that the processor implements the steps of the remaining life detection method of any one of claims 1 to 8 when executing the computer program.
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| CN115219835A (en) * | 2022-09-20 | 2022-10-21 | 北京智盟信通科技有限公司 | Oil-immersed transformer life evaluation method |
| CN115219835B (en) * | 2022-09-20 | 2023-01-20 | 北京智盟信通科技有限公司 | Oil-immersed transformer life evaluation method |
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