CN114418389A - Construction method of traffic transportation development index model based on evaluation index system - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a construction method of a traffic transportation development index model based on an evaluation index system, which comprises the following steps: acquiring traffic transportation target data; establishing a database of evaluation indexes; constructing an evaluation model of evaluation indexes; an evaluation unit for determining a development index; and (4) drawing output and result analysis, namely analyzing the grade division results of the transportation and evaluating the development index of the transportation. By adopting the comprehensive index method, the combination of the leading factors in the traffic transportation development index and comprehensive analysis can be better embodied, the objective reality is met, and the problem that the positive and negative influences of each factor on the evaluation result cannot be accurately reflected although the effect of each factor is comprehensively considered in the traditional experience index addition method is solved; in addition, the invention considers a plurality of factors in the traffic transportation development index and comprehensively analyzes each factor according to the dialectical conditions, thereby ensuring that the evaluation result is more scientific and accurate.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of transportation, in particular to a construction method of a transportation development index model based on an evaluation index system.
Background
The road network planning is an important link of road construction, guides the construction and development of traffic transportation, and plays a significant role in the development of the whole traffic transportation system. The system analyzes the current situation of traffic transportation, comprehensively recognizes the main problems, reveals the basic contradiction of the existing road network, provides proper improvement measures and construction directions, and has very important significance for making the target of the road construction development strategy. Therefore, it is necessary to enhance and improve the road network planning and to evaluate the sustainability of the current road network. The theory and the method for evaluating the sustainable development of the road network under the current situation are discussed by the thought of the sustainable development of the traffic transportation and starting from the purpose, object and range of the planning and evaluation of the road network.
The purpose of evaluating the sustainable development of transportation is to find out the main problems existing in the current road development and find out the solution to the problems, so that the road construction can develop along the sustainable roads. The sustainable development of the road network, which is the current situation, needs to ensure effective communication, promote economic development, meet traffic requirements, improve transportation benefits, and pay attention to the coordinated development of road traffic and society, resources and environment. Therefore, the evaluation of the sustainable development of transportation is a comprehensive evaluation of the above aspects.
In recent years, domestic scholars also develop research on the aspect of comprehensive transportation systems, and certain achievements are achieved in the aspects of definition, factors influencing development, development strategies, future development trends and the like. However, the research aims at the comprehensive transportation and economic development and the macroscopic development trend. There is a lack of comprehensive profiling and comprehensive evaluation of the integrated transportation system and subsystems. And lack of prediction and assessment of traffic.
An effective solution to the problems in the related art has not been proposed yet.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the problems in the related art, the invention provides a construction method of a traffic transportation development index model based on an evaluation index system, so as to overcome the technical problems in the prior related art.
Therefore, the invention adopts the following specific technical scheme:
the method for constructing the traffic transportation development index model based on the evaluation index system comprises the following steps:
acquiring traffic transportation target data, establishing a tree-like relation structure by adopting a target hierarchical classification method, and training the target data;
establishing a database of evaluation indexes, selecting the evaluation indexes according to the principles of independence, quantization and universality, and importing the evaluation indexes into an index evaluation system;
constructing an evaluation model of the evaluation index, analyzing the evaluation index by adopting a comprehensive index method and generating a development index;
an evaluation unit for determining the development index divides the transportation into a cost type, a benefit type and a moderate type according to the calculation result of the development index;
and (4) drawing output and result analysis, namely analyzing the grade division results of the transportation and evaluating the development index of the transportation.
Further, the training of the target data includes predicting historical target data and generating a predicted value ytPredicting value ytThe calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
yt＝f(yt-d,yt-d-1,...,yt-d-k+1)
wherein t is the measured time point, d is the delay time, and k is the sequence.
Further, the analyzing the evaluation index by using the comprehensive index method comprises dividing an index evaluation system into four sequentially decreasing levels, namely, a layer A, a layer B, a layer C and a layer D, and performing gradual analysis on the evaluation index.
The layer A is a transportation development index system layer; the layer B is a causal representation layer; the layer C is an attribute layer; the D layer is an index layer;
further, the D-layer evaluation index QiThe calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
Qi＝PiPimax
wherein, PiThe current value of a certain index of the D layer; pimaxThe maximum value of the current value of each evaluation unit of an index in the D layer, i is the number of evaluation index items in the D layer, and the value isA non-zero natural number.
Further, the layer C evaluation index VmThe calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
Vm＝∑QiWi
wherein Q isiEvaluating index values in a layer D to which a certain index in the layer C belongs; wiThe weighted value of each evaluation index in the layer D to which a certain evaluation index in the layer C belongs; and m is the evaluation index item number in the C layer, and the value of m is a non-zero natural number.
Further, the B-layer evaluation index UnThe calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
Un＝∑VmWm
wherein, VmThe evaluation index values of all the evaluation indexes in the layer C to which a certain evaluation index in the layer B belongs; wmThe weight value of each evaluation index in a layer C to which a certain evaluation index in a layer B belongs; m is the number of evaluation index items in the C layer; n is the evaluation index item number in the B layer, and the value of n is a non-zero natural number.
Further, the calculation formula of the layer a evaluation index G is as follows:
G＝1-∑UnWn
wherein, UnAn evaluation index value of a certain evaluation index in the layer B; wnThe weighted value of a certain evaluation index in the layer B; n is the number of evaluation index items in the B layer.
Further, the classifying the transportation into the cost type, the benefit type and the moderate type according to the calculation result of the development index includes converging the evaluation indexes of each layer, and classifying the transportation according to the converged values.
Further, the following formula is adopted for convergence of the evaluation indexes of the respective layers:
wherein, muiFor the evaluation index value of each layer, μijW is an evaluation index of each layerijFor each layer commentThe weight of the price index, j is the number of the evaluation indexes of each layer, the value of j is a non-zero natural number, and m' is the number of the evaluation indexes of each layer.
Furthermore, the evaluation index values of the layers are converged, and the development indexes of the layers are evaluated according to the convergence values, wherein an evaluation index value convergence formula is as follows:
wherein, EQI is a comprehensive evaluation value; mu.siThe evaluation index value of each layer; wiThe weight of each layer of evaluation index; j is the number of evaluation indexes of each layer.
The invention has the beneficial effects that:
(1) by adopting the comprehensive index method, the combination of the leading factors in the traffic transportation development index and comprehensive analysis can be better embodied, the objective reality is met, and the problem that the positive and negative influences of each factor on the evaluation result cannot be accurately reflected although the effect of each factor is comprehensively considered in the traditional experience index addition method is solved; in addition, the invention considers a plurality of factors in the traffic transportation development index and comprehensively analyzes each factor according to the dialectical conditions, thereby ensuring that the evaluation result is more scientific and accurate.
(2) The invention adopts an analytic hierarchy process to obtain the target data of traffic transportation, on one hand, the subjective judgment of people can be fully considered, the qualitative and quantitative analysis is carried out on the target data, and the relative importance degree of each factor is fully determined; on the other hand, the target data is regarded as a system, various complex factors are analyzed layer by layer, and particularly, the qualitative analysis of a traffic transportation system and scientific evaluation can be realized for a multi-layer and multi-factor complex system.
(3) The traffic target data prediction training method can realize the prediction training of the traffic target data, can analyze and judge the traffic development trend through the prediction training, and has better predictability compared with the traditional mode of judging only by aiming at historical data, so that the analysis result of the traffic target data prediction training method is more convincing.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings needed in the embodiments will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious for those skilled in the art to obtain other drawings without creative efforts.
Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a method for constructing a transportation development index model based on an evaluation index system according to an embodiment of the invention.
Detailed Description
For further explanation of the various embodiments, the drawings which form a part of the disclosure and which are incorporated in and constitute a part of this specification, illustrate embodiments and, together with the description, serve to explain the principles of operation of the embodiments, and to enable others of ordinary skill in the art to understand the various embodiments and advantages of the invention, and, by reference to these figures, reference is made to the accompanying drawings, which are not to scale and wherein like reference numerals generally refer to like elements.
According to the embodiment of the invention, a method for constructing a traffic transportation development index model based on an evaluation index system is provided.
Referring to the drawings and the detailed description, the invention is further explained, as shown in fig. 1, a method for constructing a traffic transportation development index model based on an evaluation index system according to an embodiment of the invention, the method includes the following steps:
s1, acquiring traffic and transportation target data, establishing a tree-like relation structure by adopting a target hierarchical classification method, and training the target data;
in one embodiment, the training of the target data includes predicting historical target data and generating a predicted value ytPredicting value ytThe calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
yt＝f(yt-d,yt-d-1,...,yt-d-k-1)
wherein t is the measured time point, d is the delay time, and k is the sequence.
S2, establishing a database of evaluation indexes, selecting the evaluation indexes according to the principles of independence, quantifiability and universality, and importing the evaluation indexes into an index evaluation system;
specifically, the establishment of the index evaluation system follows the overall completeness principle, the objectivity principle, the scientific principle, the nonlinear principle and the practical principle, and reflects the characteristics and conditions of traffic transportation from different sides.
S3, constructing an evaluation model of the evaluation indexes, analyzing the evaluation indexes by adopting a comprehensive index method and generating development indexes;
in one embodiment, the analyzing the evaluation index by using the comprehensive index method includes dividing an index evaluation system into four sequentially decreasing levels, namely, an a layer, a B layer, a C layer and a D layer, and performing gradual analysis on the evaluation index.
The layer A is a transportation development index system layer;
the layer B is a causal expression layer (comprising main cause indexes, effect expression indexes and the like);
the layer C is an attribute layer (comprising an infrastructure attribute, a transportation service capability attribute, a green development attribute, a safe traffic attribute, a social benefit attribute and the like);
the D layer is an index layer (comprising railway double-line rate, highway density, average tonnage of commercial trucks, number of shelves at the end of transport airplane, highway greening mileage, energy consumption of turnover converted by comprehensive transportation units, number of road traffic accidents, number of transportation workers accounting for social population proportion and the like);
in one embodiment, the D-layer evaluation index QiThe calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
Qi＝PiPimax
wherein, PiThe current value of a certain index of the D layer; pimaxThe value is the maximum value in the current value of each evaluation unit of a certain index in the D layer, i is the number of evaluation index items in the D layer, and the value is a non-zero natural number.
In one embodiment, the formula for calculating the C-layer evaluation index Vm is as follows:
Vm＝∑QiWi
wherein Q isiEvaluating index values in a layer D to which a certain index in the layer C belongs; wiThe weighted value of each evaluation index in the layer D to which a certain evaluation index in the layer C belongs; m is the number of evaluation index items in the C layer, and in this example, when m is 1, i is 1, 2; when m is 2, i is 3, 4; and so on.
In one embodiment, the layer B evaluation index UnThe calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
Un＝∑VmWm n＝1,2
wherein, VmThe evaluation index values of all the evaluation indexes in the layer C to which a certain evaluation index in the layer B belongs; wmThe weight value of each evaluation index in a layer C to which a certain evaluation index in a layer B belongs; m is the number of evaluation index items in the C layer; n is the number of evaluation index items in the layer B, and the value of n is a non-zero natural number, in this example, when n is 1, m is 1, 2 … … 6; when n is 2, m is 7, 8 … … 12.
In one embodiment, the formula for calculating the layer a evaluation index G is as follows:
G＝1-∑UnWn
wherein, UnAn evaluation index value of a certain evaluation index in the layer B; wnThe weighted value of a certain evaluation index in the layer B; n is the evaluation index item number in the B layer, and the value of n is a non-zero natural number.
S4, determining an evaluation unit of the development index, and dividing transportation into a cost type, a benefit type and a moderate type according to the calculation result of the development index;
in one embodiment, the classifying the transportation into the cost type, the benefit type and the moderate type according to the calculation result of the development index includes converging the evaluation indexes of each layer, and grading the transportation according to the converged values.
In one embodiment, the convergence of the evaluation indexes of the respective layers is represented by the following formula:
wherein, muiFor the evaluation index value of each layer, μijW is an evaluation index of each layerijJ is the weight of each layer of evaluation index, j is the number of each layer of evaluation index, the value of j is a non-zero natural number, and m' is the number of each layer of evaluation index.
In one embodiment, the evaluation index values of the layers are converged, and the development indexes of the layers are evaluated according to the convergence values, wherein the evaluation index value convergence formula is as follows:
wherein, EQI is a comprehensive evaluation value; mu.siThe evaluation index value of each layer; wiThe weight of each layer of evaluation index; j is the number of evaluation indexes of each layer.
And S5, drawing output and result analysis, wherein the classification result of the transportation is analyzed and the development index of the transportation is evaluated.
Specifically, according to the evaluation model and the grading standard of the evaluation index, referring to the comprehensive judgment standard of urban sustainable development and various grading methods of comprehensive evaluation values at home and abroad, the criteria of the sustainable development of transportation are as follows:
EQI <0.5 is non-sustainable development;
EQI belongs to [0.5, 0.7) for weak sustainable development;
eQI belongs to [0.7, 0.8) ] is basically sustainable development;
EQI belongs to [0.8, 0.9) for strong sustainable development;
the EQ1 is more than or equal to 0.9, which is strong sustainable development.
In conclusion, by means of the technical scheme, the combination of the leading factors in the traffic transportation development index and the comprehensive analysis can be well reflected by adopting the comprehensive index method, the objective reality is met, and the problem that the positive and negative influences of the factors on the evaluation result cannot be accurately reflected although the effects of the factors are comprehensively considered in the traditional experience index summation method is solved; in addition, the invention considers a plurality of factors in the traffic transportation development index, and comprehensively analyzes each factor according to the dialectical conditions, thereby ensuring that the evaluation result is more scientific and accurate; the invention adopts an analytic hierarchy process to obtain the target data of traffic transportation, on one hand, the subjective judgment of people can be fully considered, the qualitative and quantitative analysis is carried out on the target data, and the relative importance degree of each factor is fully determined; on the other hand, the target data is regarded as a system, various complex factors are analyzed layer by layer, and particularly, the qualitative analysis of a traffic transportation system and scientific evaluation can be realized for a multi-level and multi-factor complex system; the traffic target data prediction training method can realize the prediction training of the traffic target data, can analyze and judge the traffic development trend through the prediction training, and has better predictability compared with the traditional mode of judging only by aiming at historical data, so that the analysis result of the traffic target data prediction training method is more convincing.
The above description is only for the purpose of illustrating the preferred embodiments of the present invention and is not to be construed as limiting the invention, and any modifications, equivalents, improvements and the like that fall within the spirit and principle of the present invention are intended to be included therein.
Claims (3)
1. The method for constructing the traffic transportation development index model based on the evaluation index system is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
acquiring traffic transportation target data, establishing a tree-like relation structure by adopting a target hierarchical classification method, and training the target data; training the target data includes predicting historical target data and generating a predicted value ytPredicting value ytThe calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
yt＝f(yt-d,yt-d-1,...,yt-d-k+1)
wherein t is a measured time point, d is a delay time, and k is a sequence;
establishing a database of evaluation indexes, selecting the evaluation indexes according to the principles of independence, quantization and universality, and importing the evaluation indexes into an index evaluation system;
constructing an evaluation model of the evaluation index, analyzing the evaluation index by adopting a comprehensive index method and generating a development index, wherein the analysis of the evaluation index by adopting the comprehensive index method comprises the step-by-step analysis of the evaluation index by dividing an index evaluation system into four sequentially decreasing layers of an A layer, a B layer, a C layer and a D layer;
the layer A is a transportation development index system layer;
the layer B is a causal representation layer;
the layer C is an attribute layer;
the D layer is an index layer;
the D-layer evaluation index QiThe calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
Qi＝PiPimax
wherein, PiThe current value of a certain index of the D layer; pimaxThe maximum value of the current value of each evaluation unit of an index in the D layer, i is the number of evaluation index items in the D layer, and the value of i is a non-zero natural number;
the layer C evaluation index VmThe calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
Vm＝∑QiWi
wherein Q isiEvaluating index values in a layer D to which a certain index in the layer C belongs; wiThe weighted value of each evaluation index in the layer D to which a certain evaluation index in the layer C belongs; m is the evaluation index item number in the C layer, and the value of m is a non-zero natural number;
the layer B evaluation index UnThe calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
Un＝∑VmWm
wherein, VmThe evaluation index values of all the evaluation indexes in the layer C to which a certain evaluation index in the layer B belongs; wmThe weight value of each evaluation index in a layer C to which a certain evaluation index in a layer B belongs; m is the number of evaluation index items in the C layer; n is the number of evaluation index items in the layer B, and the value of n is a non-zero natural number;
the calculation formula of the layer A evaluation index G is as follows:
G＝1-∑UnWn
wherein, UnAn evaluation index value of a certain evaluation index in the layer B; wnThe weighted value of a certain evaluation index in the layer B; n is the number of evaluation index items in the B layer;
an evaluation unit for determining the development index divides the transportation into a cost type, a benefit type and a moderate type according to the calculation result of the development index; the step of dividing the transportation into a cost type, a benefit type and a moderate type according to the calculation result of the development index comprises the steps of converging evaluation indexes of all layers, and grading the transportation according to the converged values;
and (4) drawing output and result analysis, namely analyzing the grade division results of the transportation and evaluating the development index of the transportation.
2. The method for constructing the transportation development index model based on the evaluation index system according to claim 1, wherein the following formula is adopted for converging the evaluation indexes of each layer:
wherein, muiFor the evaluation index value of each layer, μijW is an evaluation index of each layerijJ is the weight of each layer of evaluation index, j is the number of each layer of evaluation index, the value of j is a non-zero natural number, and m' is the number of each layer of evaluation index.
3. The method for constructing a transportation development index model based on an evaluation index system according to claim 1, wherein evaluation index values of each layer are converged, and the development index is evaluated according to the convergence value, and the evaluation index value convergence formula is as follows:
wherein, EQI is a comprehensive evaluation value; mu.siThe evaluation index value of each layer; wiThe weight of each layer of evaluation index; j is the number of evaluation indexes of each layer.
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| CN111625756A (en) * | 2020-05-27 | 2020-09-04 | 交通运输部科学研究院 | Maturity evaluation method for city MaaS operation system |
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| CN109829607A (en) * | 2018-12-17 | 2019-05-31 | 东南大学 | A kind of integrated evaluating method of Sustainable Development for Urban Traffic System |
| CN109978411A (en) * | 2019-04-10 | 2019-07-05 | 交通运输部科学研究院 | A kind of communications and transportation development index building model |
| CN111401701A (en) * | 2020-03-05 | 2020-07-10 | 吉林大学 | Comprehensive evaluation method for comprehensive transportation system |
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