CN114329713A - Residential building loss calculation method based on disaster loss curve and hydrodynamic model - Google Patents
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Abstract
A residential building loss calculation method based on a disaster loss curve and a hydrodynamic model belongs to the technical field of municipal engineering. Firstly, dividing the income classes of urban residents according to the household income and expense data, evaluating the types and the quantity of household indoor properties of different income classes, and establishing corresponding building disaster loss curves including indoor property loss curves and house structure curves by adopting a synthetic curve method; secondly, according to data of the urban drainage pipe network, terrain elevation, river and lake water systems and the like, a one-dimensional pipe network model, a surface production confluence model and a two-dimensional surface overflow model are constructed and coupled to obtain an urban inland inundation model, and calibration and verification are carried out; and finally, calculating the loss of the residential buildings in the research area under different design rainfall scenes by adopting a disaster loss curve based on the urban inland inundation model, thereby obtaining the loss distribution condition of the research area. The method can break through the limitation of the traditional disaster curve construction method, and the loss is estimated by using the method of combining the disaster curve and the hydrodynamic model, so that the method is beneficial to improving the loss calculation efficiency and precision.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of municipal engineering, and relates to a flood disaster loss calculation method fully considering actual loss conditions, in particular to a method for refining the types and the number of indoor properties of different income classes in the process of building a disaster loss curve.
Background
The construction of the disaster damage curve is a key step of urban flood disaster damage assessment, and the construction result has great influence on the urban flood disaster damage precision. In recent years, due to the problems of insufficient capacity of a drainage system, low terrain in urban areas, rising of impervious areas of urban underlying surfaces and the like, the drainage system is heavy in load, and urban flood disasters occur frequently. The building loss is an important part in flood disaster assessment, the building loss comprises indoor property loss and house structure loss, and building a disaster loss curve is one of important non-engineering measures for flood loss assessment. In view of the current situations that historical disaster data are lacked in China and flood insurance is incomplete, a synthetic curve method is most suitable for constructing a disaster damage curve, and the synthetic curve method can effectively solve the problem of historical disaster data loss.
At present, flood simulation is widely used based on a hydrodynamic model method, urban waterlogging submerging conditions with good precision can be obtained, and strength indexes such as submerging depth, submerging duration, submerging area and the like are output, so that the establishment of a one-dimensional and two-dimensional coupling model suitable for urban areas is a necessary trend under the current urban waterlogging risk assessment requirement. The hydrodynamic model can simulate different designed rainfall situations, outputs data such as submerging water depth, submerging area and the like, and can be combined with the disaster damage curve to calculate the loss situations in different recurrence periods. Therefore, the flood disaster loss evaluation method combining the disaster loss curve and the hydrodynamic model can efficiently and accurately calculate the flooding loss, and improve the accuracy of the flood disaster loss calculation of urban resident buildings.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the problems of low efficiency and inaccuracy of urban resident building flood damage calculation, the urban resident building flood damage calculation method based on the disaster damage curve and the hydrodynamic model is provided, and the efficiency and the precision of the urban resident building flood damage calculation are improved.
A city resident building flood disaster loss calculation method based on a disaster loss curve and a hydrodynamic model comprises building disaster loss curve construction (an indoor property disaster loss curve, a wall surface disaster loss curve and a floor disaster loss curve), city waterlogging model construction and waterlogging loss calculation; the specific implementation method comprises the following steps:
1) the method comprises the following steps of analyzing the types and the number of indoor properties and house structures according to income levels, and sequentially constructing indoor property damage curves, wall surface damage curves and floor damage curves of different income families, wherein the method comprises the following specific steps:
classifying income grades: according to the content in the statistical yearbook, the family income and expenditure are equally divided into 5 income levels according to the relative income: 20% low income households, 20% medium and high income households, and 20% high income households;
secondly, indoor property classification and valuation: according to existing research and practical investigation, internal properties are divided into five major categories: household appliances, main furniture, digital equipment, entertainment equipment and daily consumer goods. According to websites such as a Chinese national power grid, a Wanweijia power grid and the like and monthly data of a retail monitoring database of a Chinese market research center, price intervals of each property are divided into five categories, then the property prices are estimated according to attention people of different price levels, and the property ownership types and the property ownership quantities of each income level are determined according to the household durable goods hundred-family ownership quantity in the statistical yearbook.
Thirdly, determining the loss value of each kind of property under different water depths: and determining the maintenance or new value of each type of property under each water depth as a loss value according to the placement height and the flooded condition of each internal property. Because the difference of the domestic indoor property placement heights is not large, the value is determined according to relevant research and practical situations. And adding all the loss values under the water depth to obtain the total submerged loss value of the water depth.
Generating a curve: starting from the indoor ground, taking 0.1 meter as a distance, taking the water depth as an abscissa and taking the total submerged loss value as an ordinate, the water depth-loss value curve of the indoor property of different income families can be established.
Estimating the cost of re-painting the wall surface and the paving floor: referring to the local paint price, the brushing labor cost, the floor price and the pavement labor cost in the research area, the paint price, the brushing labor cost, the floor price and the pavement labor cost are divided into five price levels, the five price levels correspond to five income levels, then the paint price, the brushing labor cost, the floor price and the pavement labor cost are converted into the price per square meter, and finally the paint price, the brushing labor cost, the floor price and the pavement labor cost are added to obtain the price per square meter of the painted wall surface and the pavement floor, namely the wall surface loss value and the floor loss value.
Sixthly, calculating the unit area loss value under different water depths: the areas of a toilet and a kitchen need to be deducted for wall loss and floor loss, and a wall loss calculation formula is as follows: d1＝0.68/3×S×M1X H, in the formula, D1Is the wall surface loss value (element); s is the building area (m)2)；M1Cost (Yuan/m) for plastering wall2) (ii) a H is the depth of submersion (m). Floor loss calculation formula: d2＝0.68×S×M2In the formula, D2The floor loss value is (Yuan); m2For floor laying (yuan/m)2) (ii) a S is the building area (m)2)。
And generating a curve: starting from the height of the indoor skirting line, taking the water depth of 0.1m as the interval and the water depth H (m) as the abscissa, the unit area loss D of the wall surface1(element/m)2) Obtaining a water depth-unit area loss curve of the wall surface for the vertical coordinate; starting from the indoor ground, taking the water depth H (m) as the abscissa and the water depth H (m) as the interval, and the floor unit area loss value D2S is (yuan/m)2) Obtaining a water depth-unit area loss curve of the floor by the ordinate;
2) according to the basin range, the urban pipe network, the terrain elevation and other basic data, a one-dimensional pipe network model, a surface production convergence model and a two-dimensional surface overflow model are constructed, an urban inland inundation model is obtained through coupling simulation, and calibration and verification are carried out;
3) and (3) calculating the waterlogging loss: simulating different design rainfall scenes in the urban inland inundation model, outputting data such as submerging water depth, submerging area and the like, combining the building disaster loss curve obtained in the step 1), calculating resident building loss values in different reappearance periods, and further reflecting a building loss distribution diagram.
Further, in the step 1), the indoor property is divided into five types, and each type needs to be refined again.
Further, the house structure in the step 2) is divided into a wall surface and a floor, and due to different submerging heights, calculation is needed to be carried out respectively, and disaster damage curves are constructed respectively.
Further, the painting area and the paved floor area in the step 3) are equal to the area obtained by subtracting the kitchen area and the toilet area from the indoor area, the indoor area is 85% of the building area, and the kitchen area and the toilet area are 20% of the indoor area.
Further, step 4) is to calibrate and verify the constructed model, namely to compare the actual measurement rainfall inundation range with the simulation inundation range.
The invention has the following beneficial effects: the method combines the disaster damage curve and the hydrodynamic model, adopts the synthetic curve method to construct the disaster damage curve, breaks through the limitation of lack of historical disaster data, and makes up the realistic problem of incomplete flood insurance. The flooding condition of various designed rainfall scenes can be simulated by utilizing the waterlogging model. Compared with the traditional single loss calculation method, the method has the advantages of higher result precision, workload saving and greatly improved efficiency.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a graph of depth of water versus loss value for indoor property;
FIG. 2 is a wall damage curve;
FIG. 3 is a graph of a floor damage curve;
FIG. 4 is a drainage network distribution diagram;
FIG. 5 is a comparison graph of a calibrated rainfall inundation range and a simulation calculation;
FIG. 6 is a histogram of loss for each revenue class for different recurring periods;
FIG. 7 is a graph showing the loss of a resident building during a period of reappearance of a ten-year rainstorm;
Detailed Description
The present invention will be further illustrated by the following examples, but the present invention is not limited to the following examples
Example 1:
taking the urban area of the Shijiazhuang city as an example, the area of the research area is 223.49 square kilometers, 907 trunk pipes are covered, 455 water outlets, 78051 pipe sections, 78106 pipe network nodes, the total length of the pipe sections is 1182.2 kilometers, and 77651 water catchment areas are obtained after processing. The method based on the disaster damage curve and the hydrodynamic model is used for calculating the flood disaster damage of urban resident buildings, the water depth-loss value curve of indoor property is respectively constructed, and the water depth-unit area loss curve of wall surfaces and floors is shown in figures 1, 2 and 3. And a rain pipe network model was constructed as shown in fig. 4. The model is rated by using three actual rainfall inundation ranges of 29 days in 6 months, 9 days in 7 months and 9 days in 8 months in 2020, and the rating result is shown in fig. 5.
Building distribution diagrams are extracted according to a satellite map of a research area, resident building distribution diagrams of the research area are determined by combining a land utilization planning diagram of the Shizhuang city, and loss distribution conditions can be obtained by simulating and calculating loss conditions of different reappearance periods (1a, 2a, 3a, 4a, 5a, 10a, 20a, 30a and 50 a). And (4) obtaining data such as submerging water depth, submerging area and the like by utilizing model simulation, and calculating and summing accumulated water grids one by combining a disaster loss curve.
Loss distribution can be obtained by simulating and calculating loss conditions in different reproduction periods, and loss values in different reproduction periods are shown in table 1. The histogram of properties, building structures and total losses in different renewals is shown in fig. 6, and the distribution of losses over ten years is shown in fig. 7. The simulation was performed using actual rainfall, and the simulation results were compared with the actual rainfall data and analyzed as shown in table 2.
TABLE 1 residential building loss values (unit: Wanyuan) at different reproduction periods
TABLE 2 statistical table for comparison between simulation results and measured data
As can be seen from table 1, fig. 6 and fig. 7, from the trend of increasing flood loss in different recurrence periods, the loss is less under the condition of one-year-one rainfall design (1a), and the loss is increased suddenly after two-year-one rainfall (2a), which is consistent with the design standard of drainage network in the market of shijiazhuang. The loss is larger than 5 ten thousand yuan, and the loss distribution range is wide in the aspect of loss distribution. The simulation result is similar to the actual measurement result, errors are less than 20%, and the simulation result is considered to be reliable.
Claims (5)
1. A resident building loss calculation method based on a disaster loss curve and a hydrodynamic model is characterized by comprising building disaster loss curve construction, urban inland inundation model construction and inland inundation loss calculation, wherein the building disaster loss curve comprises an indoor property disaster loss curve, a wall surface disaster loss curve and a floor disaster loss curve; the specific implementation method comprises the following steps:
1) the method comprises the following steps of analyzing the types and the number of indoor properties and house structures according to income levels, and sequentially constructing indoor property damage curves, wall surface damage curves and floor damage curves of different income families, wherein the method comprises the following specific steps:
classifying income grades: according to the content in the statistical yearbook, the family income and expenditure are equally divided into 5 income levels according to the relative income: 20% low income households, 20% medium and high income households, and 20% high income households;
secondly, indoor property classification and valuation: according to existing research and practical investigation, internal properties are divided into five major categories: household appliances, main furniture, digital equipment, entertainment equipment and daily consumer goods; according to websites such as a Chinese national power grid, a Wanweijia power grid and the like and monthly data of a retail monitoring database of a Chinese market research center, the price intervals of all properties are divided into five categories, then the property prices are estimated according to the concerned persons with different price levels, and the property ownership types and the property ownership quantity of all income categories are determined according to the household durable goods hundred-family ownership quantity in the statistical yearbook;
thirdly, determining the loss value of each kind of property under different water depths: and determining the maintenance or new value of each type of property under each water depth as a loss value according to the placement height and the flooded condition of each internal property. Because the domestic indoor property placement heights are not greatly different, the value is determined according to relevant research and actual conditions; adding all the loss values under the water depth to obtain a total submerged loss value of the water depth;
generating a curve: starting from the indoor ground, taking 0.1 meter as a space, taking the water depth as an abscissa and taking the total submerged loss value as an ordinate, and then establishing an indoor property water depth-loss value curve of different income families;
estimating the cost of re-painting the wall surface and the paving floor: referring to the local paint price, the painting labor cost, the floor price and the pavement labor cost in a research area, dividing the paint price, the painting labor cost, the floor price and the pavement labor cost into five price levels, wherein the five price levels correspond to five income levels, then converting the paint price, the painting labor cost, the floor price and the pavement labor cost into the price per square meter, and finally adding the paint price, the painting labor cost, the floor price and the pavement labor cost to obtain the price per square meter of painted wall surface and pavement floor, namely the wall surface loss value and the floor surface loss value;
sixthly, calculating the unit area loss value under different water depths: the areas of a toilet and a kitchen need to be deducted for wall loss and floor loss, and a wall loss calculation formula is as follows: d1＝0.68/3×S×M1X H, in the formula, D1Is the wall surface loss value (element); s is the building area (m)2)；M1Cost (Yuan/m) for plastering wall2) (ii) a H is the depth of submersion (m). Floor loss calculation formula: d2＝0.68×S×M2In the formula, D2The floor loss value is (Yuan); m2For floor laying (yuan/m)2) (ii) a S is the building area (m)2)；
And generating a curve: starting from the height of the indoor skirting line, taking the water depth of 0.1m as the interval and the water depth H (m) as the abscissa, the unit area loss D of the wall surface1(element/m)2) Obtaining a water depth-unit area loss curve of the wall surface for the vertical coordinate; starting from the indoor ground, the floor unit area loss is calculated by taking the water depth H (m) as the abscissa and the water depth 0.1m as the intervalValue D2S is (yuan/m)2) Obtaining a water depth-unit area loss curve of the floor by the ordinate;
2) according to the basin range, the urban pipe network, the terrain elevation and other basic data, a one-dimensional pipe network model, a surface production convergence model and a two-dimensional surface overflow model are constructed, an urban inland inundation model is obtained through coupling simulation, and calibration and verification are carried out;
3) and (3) calculating the waterlogging loss: simulating different design rainfall scenes in the urban inland inundation model, outputting data such as submerging water depth, submerging area and the like, combining the building disaster loss curve obtained in the step 1), calculating resident building loss values in different reappearance periods, and further reflecting a building loss distribution diagram.
2. The method for calculating loss of residents' buildings based on a disaster curve and a hydrodynamic force model as claimed in claim 1, wherein the indoor property of step 1) is divided into five types, and each type is refined again.
3. The method for calculating loss of residents' buildings based on a disaster loss curve and a hydrodynamic model as claimed in claim 1, wherein the building structure of step 2) is divided into wall and floor, and the respective calculation is performed to construct the disaster loss curve respectively due to different submerging heights.
4. The method for calculating loss of a residential building based on a disaster loss curve and a hydrodynamic model as claimed in claim 1, wherein the painting area and the paved floor area in step 3) are equal to the indoor area minus the kitchen area and the toilet area, the indoor area is 85% of the building area, and the kitchen area and the toilet area are 20% of the indoor area.
5. The method for calculating loss of residents' buildings based on disaster curves and hydrodynamic force models as claimed in claim 1, wherein the step 4) of calibration and verification of the constructed model is performed by comparing the measured rainfall inundation range with the simulated inundation range.
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| CN116957303A (en) * | 2023-09-20 | 2023-10-27 | 河海大学 | Emergency response scheduling decision method and system for flood disaster scene |
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