CN114139977A - Emergency rescue material dynamic scheduling optimization method and system under multi-disaster coupling - Google Patents

Emergency rescue material dynamic scheduling optimization method and system under multi-disaster coupling Download PDF

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CN114139977A
CN114139977A CN202111466323.6A CN202111466323A CN114139977A CN 114139977 A CN114139977 A CN 114139977A CN 202111466323 A CN202111466323 A CN 202111466323A CN 114139977 A CN114139977 A CN 114139977A
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emergency rescue
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周轶
辛晶
朱毅
臧娜
夏登友
刘振翼
彭丹妮
吴爱枝
张鹏
时德轶
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China People's Police University
Beijing Academy Of Emergency Management Science And Technology
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Beijing Academy Of Emergency Management Science And Technology
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Abstract

The invention discloses a dynamic scheduling optimization method and a dynamic scheduling optimization system for emergency rescue goods and materials under multi-disaster coupling, which relate to the technical field of emergency management, and utilize a scenario deduction method to obtain dynamic demand information of emergency rescue goods and materials of disaster-affected points under multi-disaster coupling along with time and space changes; when the type and the quantity of the emergency rescue goods and materials do not meet the type and the quantity of the demand, the type and the quantity of the virtual emergency rescue goods and materials are determined according to the type and the quantity of the demand and the difference between the type and the quantity of the emergency rescue goods and materials, disaster suffered points of emergency rescue goods and materials conflict are determined by using a multi-objective optimization model according to the type and the quantity of the virtual emergency rescue goods and materials, and an optimal emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling scheme is generated by using a game model according to the disaster suffered points of the emergency rescue goods and materials conflict. The method and the device can dynamically predict the demand information of the emergency rescue goods and materials under the coupling of multiple disaster types, and generate an optimization scheme for emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling when the supply quantity of the emergency rescue goods and materials cannot meet the demand of a disaster-stricken point.

Description

Emergency rescue material dynamic scheduling optimization method and system under multi-disaster coupling
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of emergency management, in particular to a dynamic scheduling optimization method and system for emergency rescue goods and materials under multi-disaster coupling.
Background
Emergency rescue material scheduling is an important research content in the field of emergency management.
The existing emergency rescue material scheduling is mainly implemented according to an emergency rescue plan, and a certain worst disaster situation is mostly assumed to occur in a certain place when the plan is formulated. The method for implementing scheduling according to the emergency rescue plan is not suitable for various coupling situations, and can not adjust and optimize the scheduling scheme of emergency rescue materials according to dynamic changes of disasters.
In the face of a multi-disaster coupling situation, the problems to be solved urgently during emergency rescue material scheduling mainly include dynamic prediction of the demand of emergency rescue materials and generation of an optimization scheme for emergency rescue material scheduling. The existing emergency rescue material demand prediction methods mainly comprise a case reasoning method and a neural network method, the methods need a large amount of historical data, the number of coupling events of multiple kinds of disasters is small, and historical samples and data are insufficient. The existing emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling model mainly comprises a scheduling model with the minimum required time, a scheduling model with the minimum rescue cost, a scheduling model with the highest satisfaction degree and the like, and the preconditions established by the models are that the emergency rescue goods and materials supply quantity can meet the requirements of disaster-stricken points; for the situation that the supply quantity of emergency rescue goods and materials cannot meet the requirements of disaster-affected points, although a random planning model and a non-cooperative game model exist, the models assume that disaster site information is completely known, and the practical application value of the model to a multi-disaster coupling scene with unknown disaster site information is not large.
In summary, how to dynamically predict emergency rescue material demand information under multi-disaster coupling, and when the supply quantity of emergency rescue materials cannot meet the demand of a disaster-stricken point, an optimization scheme for emergency rescue material scheduling is generated, which becomes a problem to be solved by the technical staff in the field.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a dynamic scheduling optimization method and a dynamic scheduling optimization system for emergency rescue goods and materials under multi-disaster coupling, which can dynamically predict the demand information of the emergency rescue goods and materials under multi-disaster coupling and generate an optimization scheme for emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling when the supply quantity of the emergency rescue goods and materials cannot meet the demand of a disaster-stricken point.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention provides the following scheme:
a dynamic scheduling optimization method for emergency rescue goods and materials under multi-disaster coupling comprises the following steps:
acquiring disaster site information of a disaster-affected point under multi-disaster coupling; the disaster site information of the disaster-affected point comprises the geographic position of the disaster-affected point, surrounding road conditions and disaster-affected conditions, as well as the area of a disaster area, the number of people suffering from the disaster and the number of people trapped in the disaster;
according to the disaster site information of the disaster-affected site, obtaining dynamic demand information of emergency rescue goods and materials of the disaster-affected site along with time and space changes under the coupling of multiple kinds of disasters by utilizing a scene deduction method; the requirement information comprises the type and the quantity of requirements;
acquiring reserve information of emergency rescue goods and materials; the storage information of the emergency rescue goods and materials comprises the type and the quantity of the emergency rescue goods and materials;
judging whether the type and the quantity of the emergency rescue goods meet the type and the quantity of the demand;
if so, constructing a multi-objective optimization model by taking the minimization of the emergency time and the emergency cost as a target, and generating an optimal emergency rescue material scheduling scheme by using the multi-objective optimization model;
if not, determining disaster-affected points of the emergency rescue goods and materials conflict by using the multi-objective optimization model according to the type and the quantity of the virtual emergency rescue goods and materials; the type and quantity of the virtual emergency relief supplies are determined according to the type and quantity of the demand and the difference between the type and quantity of the emergency relief supplies;
and generating an optimal emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling scheme by using a game model according to the disaster-affected point of the emergency rescue goods and materials conflict.
Optionally, the obtaining, according to the disaster site information of the disaster-stricken point, dynamic demand information of the disaster-stricken point emergency rescue supplies along with time and space changes under the coupling of multiple disaster types by using a scenario deduction method specifically includes:
analyzing the dynamic demand characteristics of emergency rescue goods and materials of the disaster-affected point along with time and space changes under the coupling of multiple kinds of disasters by utilizing a scene deduction method according to the geographic position of the disaster-affected point, surrounding road conditions and the disaster-affected situation;
determining a scene of dynamic evolution of the disaster according to the dynamic demand characteristics;
and indirectly predicting dynamic demand information of emergency rescue goods and materials of disaster-affected points along with time and space changes under the coupling of multiple kinds of disasters by utilizing a scene deduction method according to the scene of the dynamic evolution of the disasters, the area of the disaster area, the number of people suffering from the disasters and the number of people trapped.
Optionally, the constructing a multi-objective optimization model with the minimization of the emergency time and the emergency cost as a target, and generating an optimal emergency rescue material scheduling scheme by using the multi-objective optimization model specifically includes:
constructing a multi-objective optimization model according to the type and the quantity of the emergency rescue goods and the type and the quantity of the demand with the aim of minimizing emergency time and emergency cost; the input of the multi-objective optimization model comprises the type and the number of the demands, the type and the number of the emergency rescue materials, emergency time and emergency cost; the output of the multi-objective optimization model is an optimal emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling scheme.
Optionally, the determining, by using the multi-objective optimization model, a disaster-stricken point of the emergency rescue goods and materials conflict according to the type and the number of the virtual emergency rescue goods and materials specifically includes:
inputting the types and the number of the virtual emergency rescue goods and materials into the multi-objective optimization model to obtain disaster-affected points of emergency rescue goods and materials conflict.
Optionally, the generating an optimal emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling scheme by using a game model according to the disaster-stricken point of the emergency rescue goods and materials conflict specifically includes:
and inputting the disaster-affected point of the emergency rescue goods and materials conflict into a game model, and outputting an optimal emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling scheme by using the game model.
The invention also provides the following scheme:
a dynamic scheduling optimization system for emergency rescue supplies under multi-disaster coupling comprises:
the disaster site information acquisition module is used for acquiring disaster site information of a disaster receiving point under multi-disaster coupling; the disaster site information of the disaster-affected point comprises the geographic position of the disaster-affected point, surrounding road conditions and disaster-affected conditions, as well as the area of a disaster area, the number of people suffering from the disaster and the number of people trapped in the disaster;
the dynamic demand information obtaining module is used for obtaining dynamic demand information of emergency rescue goods and materials of the disaster-affected point under the coupling of multiple kinds of disasters along with time and space changes by utilizing a scene deduction method according to disaster site information of the disaster-affected point; the requirement information comprises the type and the quantity of requirements;
the storage information acquisition module is used for acquiring storage information of emergency rescue goods and materials; the storage information of the emergency rescue goods and materials comprises the type and the quantity of the emergency rescue goods and materials;
the judging module is used for judging whether the type and the quantity of the emergency rescue goods meet the type and the quantity of the demand;
the multi-objective optimization model building module is used for building a multi-objective optimization model by taking the minimization of emergency time and emergency cost as a target and generating an optimal emergency rescue material scheduling scheme by utilizing the multi-objective optimization model when the output result of the judging module is yes;
the conflict disaster-affected point determining module is used for determining the disaster-affected point of the emergency rescue goods and materials conflict by using the multi-objective optimization model according to the type and the quantity of the virtual emergency rescue goods and materials when the output result of the judging module is negative; the type and quantity of the virtual emergency relief supplies are determined according to the type and quantity of the demand and the difference between the type and quantity of the emergency relief supplies;
and the emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling scheme generating module is used for generating an optimal emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling scheme by utilizing a game model according to the disaster-affected point of the emergency rescue goods and materials conflict.
Optionally, the dynamic demand information obtaining module specifically includes:
the dynamic demand characteristic analysis unit is used for analyzing the dynamic demand characteristics of emergency rescue goods and materials of the disaster-stricken points along with time and space changes under the coupling of multiple kinds of disasters by utilizing a scene deduction method according to the geographical position of the disaster-stricken points, surrounding road conditions and disaster-stricken conditions;
the disaster dynamic evolution scene determining unit is used for determining a scene of disaster dynamic evolution according to the dynamic demand characteristics;
and the dynamic demand information prediction unit is used for indirectly predicting dynamic demand information of emergency rescue goods and materials of the disaster-affected point along with time and space changes under the coupling of multiple disaster types by utilizing a scene deduction method according to the scene of the dynamic evolution of the disaster, the area of the disaster area, the number of the people suffering from the disaster and the number of the people suffering from the disaster.
Optionally, the multi-objective optimization model building module specifically includes:
the multi-objective optimization model building unit is used for building a multi-objective optimization model by taking the emergency time and the emergency cost as the minimum target according to the type and the quantity of the emergency rescue goods and the type and the quantity of the demand; the input of the multi-objective optimization model comprises the type and the number of the demands, the type and the number of the emergency rescue materials, emergency time and emergency cost; the output of the multi-objective optimization model is an optimal emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling scheme.
Optionally, the collision disaster point determining module specifically includes:
and the conflict disaster-affected point determining unit is used for inputting the types and the number of the virtual emergency rescue goods and materials into the multi-objective optimization model to obtain the disaster-affected points of the emergency rescue goods and materials conflict.
Optionally, the emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling scheme generating module specifically includes:
and the emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling scheme generating unit is used for inputting the disaster-affected points of the emergency rescue goods and materials conflict into a game model and outputting an optimal emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling scheme by using the game model.
According to the specific embodiment provided by the invention, the invention discloses the following technical effects:
the invention discloses a dynamic scheduling optimization method and a dynamic scheduling optimization system for emergency rescue supplies under multi-disaster coupling.A scene deduction method is utilized to obtain dynamic demand information of emergency rescue supplies at disaster-affected points under multi-disaster coupling along with time and space changes, including types and quantity of demands, so that the demand information of the emergency rescue supplies under multi-disaster coupling is dynamically predicted; when the type and the quantity of the emergency rescue goods and materials do not meet the type and the quantity of the demand, the type and the quantity of the virtual emergency rescue goods and materials are determined according to the type and the quantity of the demand and the difference between the type and the quantity of the emergency rescue goods and materials, the disaster receiving point of the emergency rescue goods and materials conflict is determined by using the multi-objective optimization model according to the type and the quantity of the virtual emergency rescue goods and materials, and the optimal emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling scheme is generated by using the game model according to the disaster receiving point of the emergency rescue goods and materials conflict, so that the optimal emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling scheme, namely the optimal emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling scheme, is generated when the supply quantity of the emergency rescue goods and materials cannot meet the demand of the disaster receiving point.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings needed to be used in the embodiments will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious for those skilled in the art to obtain other drawings without inventive exercise.
FIG. 1 is a flowchart of an embodiment of a dynamic emergency rescue material scheduling optimization method under multi-disaster coupling according to the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram illustrating a dynamic scheduling process of emergency rescue supplies under multi-disaster coupling according to the present invention;
fig. 3 is a structural diagram of an embodiment of a dynamic emergency rescue material scheduling optimization system under multi-disaster coupling according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
The invention aims to provide a dynamic scheduling optimization method and a dynamic scheduling optimization system for emergency rescue goods and materials under multi-disaster coupling, which can dynamically predict the demand information of the emergency rescue goods and materials under multi-disaster coupling and generate an optimization scheme for emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling when the supply quantity of the emergency rescue goods and materials cannot meet the demand of a disaster-stricken point.
In order to make the aforementioned objects, features and advantages of the present invention comprehensible, embodiments accompanied with figures are described in further detail below.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of an embodiment of a dynamic emergency rescue material scheduling optimization method under multi-disaster coupling according to the present invention. Referring to fig. 1, the method for dynamically scheduling and optimizing emergency rescue supplies under multi-disaster coupling includes:
step 101: acquiring disaster site information of a disaster-affected point under multi-disaster coupling; the disaster site information of the disaster-affected point comprises the geographical position of the disaster-affected point, surrounding road conditions and disaster-affected conditions, as well as the area of the disaster area, the number of people suffering from the disaster and the number of people trapped in the disaster.
The step 101 collects disaster site information such as geographical position of a disaster-affected point, surrounding road conditions, disaster-affected conditions and the like under multi-disaster coupling; this information is applied to the computation of the context deduction and scheduling model. The scheduling model comprises a multi-objective optimization model and a game model, and collected disaster site information is used as input of the multi-objective optimization model and the game model.
Step 102: according to disaster site information of a disaster-affected point, dynamic demand information of emergency rescue goods and materials of the disaster-affected point along with time and space changes under the coupling of multiple kinds of disasters is obtained by utilizing a scene deduction method; the requirements information includes the type and number of requirements.
The step 102 specifically includes:
and analyzing the dynamic demand characteristics of emergency rescue goods and materials of the disaster-affected point along with time and space changes under the coupling of multiple disaster types by utilizing a scene deduction method according to the geographical position of the disaster-affected point, surrounding road conditions and the disaster-affected situation.
And determining the dynamic evolution situation of the disaster according to the dynamic demand characteristics.
According to the situation of disaster dynamic evolution, the disaster area, the number of people suffering from a disaster and the number of people trapped in a disaster, the dynamic demand information of emergency rescue goods and materials at the disaster-suffering point along with time and space changes under the coupling of multiple disaster types is indirectly predicted by utilizing a situation deduction method.
In step 102, a scenario deduction method (an existing algorithm) is used to analyze dynamic demand characteristics of emergency rescue goods and materials at a disaster-affected site under multi-disaster coupling along with time and space changes (the dynamic demand characteristics of the emergency rescue goods and materials along with time and space changes are used to determine situations of dynamic evolution of disasters and predict needed goods and materials), information such as disaster area, number of people suffering from disasters and number of people trapped in a disaster is used to indirectly predict information such as types and number of the emergency rescue goods and materials demands, and the method specifically comprises the following steps: inputting the disaster site information collected in step 101 into an algorithm model of a scenario deduction method, where the model outputs how much demand of emergency rescue supplies changes with time and space, and indirectly predicting the type and quantity of the demand of the emergency rescue supplies by using the scenario deduction method, for example, obtaining the quantity of the required emergency supplies by the quantity of trapped people.
Step 103: acquiring reserve information of emergency rescue goods and materials; the reserve information of the emergency rescue supplies includes the types and the amounts of the emergency rescue supplies.
Step 103 calls a distributed database of emergency rescue goods and goods storage database, and determines the storage information of the emergency rescue goods and goods to obtain the quantity of the available emergency rescue goods and goods, which are known information, such as the quantity of the goods and goods existing in a certain city.
Step 104: and judging whether the type and the quantity of the emergency rescue materials meet the type and the quantity of the demand.
This step 104 compares the emergency relief supplies with the demand information for the disaster site. The available emergency rescue materials obtained in step 103 are all used for emergency rescue material supply, and in principle, materials in the emergency material library cannot be emptied and need to be reserved to a certain extent.
If the output result of step 104 is yes, step 105 is executed: and constructing a multi-objective optimization model by taking the minimization of the emergency time and the emergency cost as a target, and generating an optimal emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling scheme by using the multi-objective optimization model.
The step 105 specifically includes:
constructing a multi-objective optimization model aiming at minimizing emergency time and emergency cost according to the type and the quantity of emergency rescue materials and the type and the quantity of demands; the input of the multi-objective optimization model comprises the type and the number of requirements, the type and the number of emergency rescue materials, emergency time and emergency cost; the output of the multi-objective optimization model is an optimal emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling scheme.
When the type and the quantity of the materials scheduled by the emergency rescue material storage library can meet the requirements of disaster-stricken points, the step 105 constructs a multi-objective optimization model by taking the minimization of emergency time and emergency cost as a target, and generates an optimal emergency rescue material scheduling scheme. The multi-objective optimization model is a general model in operational research, but is established according to the actual situation of an application scene (materials required by each disaster-affected point and materials available in each material storage library). When the output of the established multi-objective optimization model is the optimal emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling scheme, the input of the model is the goods and materials quantity required by the disaster-stricken point, the goods and materials quantity stored in a goods and materials library, the emergency time, the emergency cost and the like.
If the output result of the step 104 is no, execute the step 106: determining disaster-affected points of the emergency rescue goods and materials conflict by using a multi-objective optimization model according to the type and the quantity of the virtual emergency rescue goods and materials; the type and amount of virtual emergency relief supplies are determined based on the type and amount of demand and the difference between the type and amount of emergency relief supplies.
The step 106 specifically includes:
inputting the types and the quantity of the virtual emergency rescue goods and materials into a multi-objective optimization model to obtain disaster-affected points of the emergency rescue goods and materials conflict.
When the type and quantity of materials scheduled by the emergency rescue material storage library cannot meet the requirements of the disaster-stricken point, the step 106 firstly configures an emergency rescue material storage library (including the type and quantity of virtual emergency rescue materials), then determines the conflicted disaster-stricken point by applying the multi-objective optimization model, namely when the materials of the material storage library cannot meet the requirements, the supply and the demand are balanced by setting a storage point in a nominal mode, and then calling the multi-objective optimization model.
Step 107: and generating an optimal emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling scheme by using a game model according to the disaster-affected point of the emergency rescue goods and materials conflict.
The step 107 specifically includes:
and inputting the disaster-affected points of the emergency rescue goods and materials conflict into the game model, and outputting an optimal emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling scheme by using the game model.
In the step 107, a game model is established for the outburst disaster-affected points, and an optimal emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling scheme is generated.
This step 107 is followed by:
and carrying out emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling according to the optimal emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling scheme.
Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of a dynamic emergency rescue material scheduling process under multi-disaster coupling according to the present invention. Referring to fig. 2, the invention provides a dynamic scheduling process of emergency rescue supplies under multi-disaster coupling, which mainly comprises the steps of collecting information of disaster-affected points, deducing multi-disaster coupling scenarios, dynamically predicting emergency rescue supplies, calling an emergency rescue supplies storage library, constructing a scheduling model (a multi-objective optimization model and a game model), generating an optimal scheduling scheme, implementing scheduling and the like.
The construction process of the multi-objective optimization model is as follows:
the model aims to minimize the emergency time and the emergency cost:
Figure BDA0003391651590000091
Figure BDA0003391651590000092
wherein, TijStorage warehouse A for emergency rescue materialsiTo the disaster-affected point BjThe emergency time of (2); x is the number ofijStorage warehouse A for emergency rescue materialsiDispatching to disaster-affected point BjThe number of emergency rescue supplies; cijStorage warehouse A for emergency rescue materialsiDispatching to disaster-affected point BjThe emergency cost of the unit rescue goods and materials.
The constraints of the model are:
1. the total quantity of emergency rescue goods and materials required by a disaster site cannot be larger than the total quantity of goods and materials reserved in an emergency rescue goods and materials reserve bank:
Figure BDA0003391651590000093
wherein, the total amount of emergency rescue materials at disaster-affected points (j is 1, 2, …, n) isbjThe total amount of emergency rescue goods and materials in the emergency rescue goods and materials storage bank (i is 1, 2, …, m) is ai。
2. The total amount of emergency rescue materials dispatched to the disaster-stricken point by the emergency rescue material storage library is equal to the total amount required by the disaster-stricken point, namely, the materials of the emergency rescue material storage library cannot be completely dispatched and need to be reserved to a certain extent so as to prevent the possibility of other disasters occurring at the same time.
3. The dispatching quantity of emergency rescue materials must be an integer:
xij∈N
the multi-objective optimization model for emergency rescue material scheduling is as follows:
Figure BDA0003391651590000101
Figure BDA0003391651590000102
Figure BDA0003391651590000103
Figure BDA0003391651590000104
xij∈N
the game model is a condition in a scheduling program and is a scheduling model when the supply and demand of emergency rescue goods and materials are unbalanced. The game model is constructed as follows:
firstly, an emergency rescue material storage library is constructed in a fictitious mode and used for dispatching a multi-target model and determining the disaster-stricken points where required materials conflict, and the emergency rescue material amount supplied by the emergency rescue material storage library is the difference between the total demand of the disaster-stricken points and the total supply amount of the emergency rescue material storage library. And inputting parameters such as emergency rescue material quantity and emergency time which can be supplied by the fictitious emergency rescue material storage library into the multi-objective optimization model, so as to obtain a disaster-affected point of the emergency rescue material conflict.
And then, determining a disaster-suffering point of the emergency rescue goods and materials conflict by using the multi-objective optimization model, wherein the conflicted disaster-suffering point is obtained by inputting goods and materials required by each disaster-suffering point and goods and materials which can be supplied by each goods and materials storage bank and operating the multi-objective optimization model.
And then, establishing a game model for the conflicted disaster-affected points, wherein the game model only needs to adopt the existing game model, the input of the game model is the conflicted disaster-affected points, the output of the game model is an optimal emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling scheme when the supply and demand of emergency rescue goods and materials are unbalanced, the conflicted disaster-affected points are artificially generated in the station of the model, the strategy is a combination of the quantity of the emergency rescue goods and materials scheduled to the disaster-affected points by an emergency rescue goods and materials storage library, and the payment matrix is the sum of the total quantity of conflicted goods and materials obtained by the persons in the station under a certain strategy combination or the sum of losses suffered by the persons in other stations giving up the conflicted goods and materials. The combination of the quantity of the emergency rescue goods and materials dispatched to the disaster-stricken point by the emergency rescue goods and materials storage library is also used as the input of the game model and is input into the game model, and the combination of the quantity of the emergency rescue goods and materials dispatched to the disaster-stricken point by the emergency rescue goods and materials storage library is obtained based on data in the payment matrix by adopting particle swarm, ant colony and improved algorithm thereof. Solving the total amount of conflict materials obtained by people in offices under a certain strategy combination or the sum of losses suffered by people in other offices who give up the conflict materials, wherein the solving method is mature, and the total amount of the conflict materials at the disaster site or the sum of the losses suffered by people in other offices who give up the conflict materials can be measured according to the proportion of the materials obtained at the disaster site to the required materials. The total amount of conflict materials obtained by people in the station under a certain strategy combination or the sum of losses suffered by people in other stations for abandoning the conflict materials is also used as the input of the game model and input into the game model.
And finally, generating an optimal emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling scheme by solving the Nash equilibrium solution. The method for solving the Nash equilibrium solution is mature, such as ant colony algorithm, particle swarm algorithm and the like. The combination of the number of emergency rescue materials of the disaster-stricken points and the emergency rescue material storage base which are in conflict is directly dispatched to the disaster-stricken points, the total quantity of the conflict materials obtained by people in the office under a certain strategy combination or the sum of losses caused by the fact that people in other offices give up the conflict materials is input into the game model, the game model can directly output the optimal emergency rescue material dispatching scheme when the supply and demand of the emergency rescue materials are unbalanced, Nash equilibrium solution is solved, and the optimal emergency rescue material dispatching scheme is generated and is a processing process in the game model.
The invention provides a dynamic scheduling process of emergency rescue supplies under multi-disaster coupling, which dynamically predicts the types and the quantity of the emergency rescue supplies required by a disaster-affected point through deduction of multi-disaster coupling situations; the invention adopts a scene deduction method to deduce the multi-disaster coupling scenes, thereby realizing the dynamic prediction of the demand of emergency rescue goods and materials. The scenario deduction method is widely applied, and aims to predict the consequences of disaster scenarios according to specific situations after the disaster occurs and the occurrence probability of each situation, and then determine the type and the quantity of materials required by the scenarios with the maximum probability. The situation deduction method is suitable for the situation that the number of the multiple disaster situation cases is small, the situation evolution trend and the demand of emergency rescue materials in different time can be obtained through deduction, and the dynamic property is embodied.
According to the invention, the relation between the supply of emergency rescue materials and the demand of disaster-affected points is considered in the dynamic scheduling optimization model of the emergency rescue materials coupled by multiple disaster types, and a multi-objective optimization model and a game model are respectively constructed. According to the invention, a game model is adopted, so that an optimal scheme for emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling, namely an optimal emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling scheme, is generated when the supply quantity of the emergency rescue goods and materials cannot meet the demand of a disaster-stricken point. The game model is generally used in a scene where the two conflict with each other, and the game model is applied to a multi-disaster coupling scene for the first time.
The existing emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling method mostly takes a single disaster as a research object, and implements scheduling according to an emergency rescue plan, and has the defects of non-standard scheduling program, inconsistent emergency rescue goods and materials supply and actual disaster situation. Based on the method, the dynamic scheduling optimization method for the emergency rescue goods and materials under the multi-disaster coupling is provided, and the problems that the scheduling flow of the emergency rescue goods and materials is not standard, and the scheduling scheme is optimized when the supply and demand of the emergency rescue goods and materials are unbalanced are solved. According to the invention, dynamic prediction is carried out on the demand of corresponding emergency rescue goods and materials through deduction of multiple disaster coupling scenes, and scheduling is carried out by comparing the supply of the emergency rescue goods and the demand of a disaster-affected point, so that the purposes of standardizing the scheduling process of the emergency rescue goods and improving the emergency rescue efficiency are achieved. The invention relates to a dynamic scheduling optimization method of emergency rescue supplies under multi-disaster coupling, which is based on a scene deduction method to analyze and dynamically predict the types and the quantity of emergency rescue supplies required by disaster-affected points, and by comparing the supply-demand relations of the emergency rescue supplies, different models are respectively called to realize the normalization and the dynamic of the emergency rescue supplies scheduling, thereby generating an optimal scheduling scheme and achieving the purpose of optimal rescue efficiency.
Fig. 3 is a structural diagram of an embodiment of a dynamic emergency rescue material scheduling optimization system under multi-disaster coupling according to the present invention. Referring to fig. 3, the dynamic scheduling and optimizing system for emergency rescue supplies under multi-disaster coupling includes:
a disaster site information obtaining module 301, configured to obtain disaster site information of a disaster-affected point under multi-disaster coupling; the disaster site information of the disaster-affected point comprises the geographical position of the disaster-affected point, surrounding road conditions and disaster-affected conditions, as well as the area of the disaster area, the number of people suffering from the disaster and the number of people trapped in the disaster.
A dynamic demand information obtaining module 302, configured to obtain dynamic demand information of time and space changes of emergency rescue goods and materials at a disaster-stricken point under multiple kinds of coupling by using a scenario deduction method according to disaster site information of the disaster-stricken point; the requirements information includes the type and number of requirements.
The dynamic demand information obtaining module specifically includes:
and the dynamic demand characteristic analysis unit is used for analyzing the dynamic demand characteristics of emergency rescue goods and materials of the disaster-stricken points along with time and space changes under the coupling of multiple kinds of disasters by utilizing a scene deduction method according to the geographical position of the disaster-stricken points, surrounding road conditions and disaster-stricken conditions.
And the disaster dynamic evolution scene determining unit is used for determining the scene of the disaster dynamic evolution according to the dynamic demand characteristics.
And the dynamic demand information prediction unit is used for indirectly predicting dynamic demand information of emergency rescue goods and materials of disaster-affected points along with time and space changes under the coupling of multiple kinds of disasters by utilizing a scene deduction method according to scenes of dynamic evolution of disasters, disaster area, number of people suffering from disasters and number of people trapped in the disaster area.
A reserve information obtaining module 303, configured to obtain reserve information of emergency rescue supplies; the reserve information of the emergency rescue supplies includes the types and the amounts of the emergency rescue supplies.
And the judging module 304 is used for judging whether the type and the quantity of the emergency rescue goods meet the type and the quantity of the demand.
And a multi-objective optimization model building module 305, configured to build a multi-objective optimization model with the minimization of the emergency time and the emergency cost as a target, and generate an optimal emergency rescue material scheduling scheme by using the multi-objective optimization model, when the output result of the judging module 304 is yes.
The multi-objective optimization model building module 305 specifically includes:
the multi-objective optimization model building unit is used for building a multi-objective optimization model by taking the emergency time and the emergency cost as the minimum target according to the type and the quantity of emergency rescue goods and the type and the quantity of demands; the input of the multi-objective optimization model comprises the type and the number of requirements, the type and the number of emergency rescue materials, emergency time and emergency cost; the output of the multi-objective optimization model is an optimal emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling scheme.
A collision disaster-suffering point determining module 306, configured to determine a disaster-suffering point of the emergency rescue goods and materials collision by using a multi-objective optimization model according to the type and the number of the virtual emergency rescue goods and materials when the output result of the determining module 304 is negative; the type and amount of virtual emergency relief supplies are determined based on the type and amount of demand and the difference between the type and amount of emergency relief supplies.
The conflict disaster point determining module 306 specifically includes:
and the conflict disaster-affected point determining unit is used for inputting the types and the quantity of the virtual emergency rescue goods and materials into the multi-objective optimization model to obtain the disaster-affected points of the emergency rescue goods and materials conflict.
And an emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling scheme generating module 307, configured to generate an optimal emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling scheme by using a game model according to the disaster-affected point of the emergency rescue goods and materials conflict.
The emergency rescue material scheduling scheme generating module 307 specifically includes:
and the emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling scheme generating unit is used for inputting the disaster-affected points of the emergency rescue goods and materials conflict into the game model and outputting the optimal emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling scheme by using the game model.
The embodiments in the present description are described in a progressive manner, each embodiment focuses on differences from other embodiments, and the same and similar parts among the embodiments are referred to each other. For the system disclosed by the embodiment, the description is relatively simple because the system corresponds to the method disclosed by the embodiment, and the relevant points can be referred to the method part for description.
The principles and embodiments of the present invention have been described herein using specific examples, which are provided only to help understand the method and the core concept of the present invention; meanwhile, for a person skilled in the art, according to the idea of the present invention, the specific embodiments and the application range may be changed. In view of the above, the present disclosure should not be construed as limiting the invention.

Claims (10)

1. A dynamic scheduling optimization method for emergency rescue goods and materials under multi-disaster coupling is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring disaster site information of a disaster-affected point under multi-disaster coupling; the disaster site information of the disaster-affected point comprises the geographic position of the disaster-affected point, surrounding road conditions and disaster-affected conditions, as well as the area of a disaster area, the number of people suffering from the disaster and the number of people trapped in the disaster;
according to the disaster site information of the disaster-affected site, obtaining dynamic demand information of emergency rescue goods and materials of the disaster-affected site along with time and space changes under the coupling of multiple kinds of disasters by utilizing a scene deduction method; the requirement information comprises the type and the quantity of requirements;
acquiring reserve information of emergency rescue goods and materials; the storage information of the emergency rescue goods and materials comprises the type and the quantity of the emergency rescue goods and materials;
judging whether the type and the quantity of the emergency rescue goods meet the type and the quantity of the demand;
if so, constructing a multi-objective optimization model by taking the minimization of the emergency time and the emergency cost as a target, and generating an optimal emergency rescue material scheduling scheme by using the multi-objective optimization model;
if not, determining disaster-affected points of the emergency rescue goods and materials conflict by using the multi-objective optimization model according to the type and the quantity of the virtual emergency rescue goods and materials; the type and quantity of the virtual emergency relief supplies are determined according to the type and quantity of the demand and the difference between the type and quantity of the emergency relief supplies;
and generating an optimal emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling scheme by using a game model according to the disaster-affected point of the emergency rescue goods and materials conflict.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the obtaining of dynamic demand information of emergency rescue supplies at the disaster-stricken point under the coupling of multiple disaster types along with time and space changes by using a scenario deduction method according to disaster site information of the disaster-stricken point specifically comprises:
analyzing the dynamic demand characteristics of emergency rescue goods and materials of the disaster-affected point along with time and space changes under the coupling of multiple kinds of disasters by utilizing a scene deduction method according to the geographic position of the disaster-affected point, surrounding road conditions and the disaster-affected situation;
determining a scene of dynamic evolution of the disaster according to the dynamic demand characteristics;
and indirectly predicting dynamic demand information of emergency rescue goods and materials of disaster-affected points along with time and space changes under the coupling of multiple kinds of disasters by utilizing a scene deduction method according to the scene of the dynamic evolution of the disasters, the area of the disaster area, the number of people suffering from the disasters and the number of people trapped.
3. The method for dynamically scheduling and optimizing emergency rescue supplies under multi-disaster coupling according to claim 1, wherein the objective of minimizing emergency time and emergency cost is used to construct a multi-objective optimization model, and the multi-objective optimization model is used to generate an optimal emergency rescue supply scheduling scheme, which specifically comprises:
constructing a multi-objective optimization model according to the type and the quantity of the emergency rescue goods and the type and the quantity of the demand with the aim of minimizing emergency time and emergency cost; the input of the multi-objective optimization model comprises the type and the number of the demands, the type and the number of the emergency rescue materials, emergency time and emergency cost; the output of the multi-objective optimization model is an optimal emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling scheme.
4. The method for optimizing the dynamic scheduling of emergency rescue supplies under the coupling of multiple disaster categories according to claim 3, wherein the determining of the disaster-stricken point of the emergency rescue supplies conflict by using the multi-objective optimization model according to the type and the number of the virtual emergency rescue supplies specifically comprises:
inputting the types and the number of the virtual emergency rescue goods and materials into the multi-objective optimization model to obtain disaster-affected points of emergency rescue goods and materials conflict.
5. The method for dynamically scheduling and optimizing emergency rescue supplies under multi-disaster coupling according to claim 1, wherein the generating of the optimal emergency rescue supply scheduling scheme by using a game model according to the disaster-stricken point of the emergency rescue supply conflict specifically comprises:
and inputting the disaster-affected point of the emergency rescue goods and materials conflict into a game model, and outputting an optimal emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling scheme by using the game model.
6. A dynamic dispatching optimization system for emergency rescue goods and materials under multi-disaster coupling is characterized by comprising:
the disaster site information acquisition module is used for acquiring disaster site information of a disaster receiving point under multi-disaster coupling; the disaster site information of the disaster-affected point comprises the geographic position of the disaster-affected point, surrounding road conditions and disaster-affected conditions, as well as the area of a disaster area, the number of people suffering from the disaster and the number of people trapped in the disaster;
the dynamic demand information obtaining module is used for obtaining dynamic demand information of emergency rescue goods and materials of the disaster-affected point under the coupling of multiple kinds of disasters along with time and space changes by utilizing a scene deduction method according to disaster site information of the disaster-affected point; the requirement information comprises the type and the quantity of requirements;
the storage information acquisition module is used for acquiring storage information of emergency rescue goods and materials; the storage information of the emergency rescue goods and materials comprises the type and the quantity of the emergency rescue goods and materials;
the judging module is used for judging whether the type and the quantity of the emergency rescue goods meet the type and the quantity of the demand;
the multi-objective optimization model building module is used for building a multi-objective optimization model by taking the minimization of emergency time and emergency cost as a target and generating an optimal emergency rescue material scheduling scheme by utilizing the multi-objective optimization model when the output result of the judging module is yes;
the conflict disaster-affected point determining module is used for determining the disaster-affected point of the emergency rescue goods and materials conflict by using the multi-objective optimization model according to the type and the quantity of the virtual emergency rescue goods and materials when the output result of the judging module is negative; the type and quantity of the virtual emergency relief supplies are determined according to the type and quantity of the demand and the difference between the type and quantity of the emergency relief supplies;
and the emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling scheme generating module is used for generating an optimal emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling scheme by utilizing a game model according to the disaster-affected point of the emergency rescue goods and materials conflict.
7. The dynamic dispatching optimization system for emergency rescue supplies under multi-disaster coupling according to claim 6, wherein the dynamic demand information obtaining module specifically comprises:
the dynamic demand characteristic analysis unit is used for analyzing the dynamic demand characteristics of emergency rescue goods and materials of the disaster-stricken points along with time and space changes under the coupling of multiple kinds of disasters by utilizing a scene deduction method according to the geographical position of the disaster-stricken points, surrounding road conditions and disaster-stricken conditions;
the disaster dynamic evolution scene determining unit is used for determining a scene of disaster dynamic evolution according to the dynamic demand characteristics;
and the dynamic demand information prediction unit is used for indirectly predicting dynamic demand information of emergency rescue goods and materials of the disaster-affected point along with time and space changes under the coupling of multiple disaster types by utilizing a scene deduction method according to the scene of the dynamic evolution of the disaster, the area of the disaster area, the number of the people suffering from the disaster and the number of the people suffering from the disaster.
8. The dynamic scheduling optimization system for emergency rescue supplies under multi-disaster coupling according to claim 6, wherein the multi-objective optimization model building module specifically comprises:
the multi-objective optimization model building unit is used for building a multi-objective optimization model by taking the emergency time and the emergency cost as the minimum target according to the type and the quantity of the emergency rescue goods and the type and the quantity of the demand; the input of the multi-objective optimization model comprises the type and the number of the demands, the type and the number of the emergency rescue materials, emergency time and emergency cost; the output of the multi-objective optimization model is an optimal emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling scheme.
9. The dynamic scheduling optimization system for emergency rescue supplies under multi-disaster coupling according to claim 8, wherein the conflict disaster point determination module specifically comprises:
and the conflict disaster-affected point determining unit is used for inputting the types and the number of the virtual emergency rescue goods and materials into the multi-objective optimization model to obtain the disaster-affected points of the emergency rescue goods and materials conflict.
10. The dynamic emergency rescue material scheduling and optimizing system under the coupling of multiple disaster types according to claim 6, wherein the emergency rescue material scheduling scheme generating module specifically comprises:
and the emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling scheme generating unit is used for inputting the disaster-affected points of the emergency rescue goods and materials conflict into a game model and outputting an optimal emergency rescue goods and materials scheduling scheme by using the game model.
CN202111466323.6A 2021-12-03 2021-12-03 Emergency rescue material dynamic scheduling optimization method and system under multi-disaster coupling Pending CN114139977A (en)

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