CN113869621A - Grape late frost meteorological disaster assessment method and system - Google Patents
Grape late frost meteorological disaster assessment method and system Download PDFInfo
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- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 29
- 235000009754 Vitis X bourquina Nutrition 0.000 title claims description 25
- 235000012333 Vitis X labruscana Nutrition 0.000 title claims description 25
- 235000014787 Vitis vinifera Nutrition 0.000 title claims description 25
- 240000006365 Vitis vinifera Species 0.000 title 1
- 238000011156 evaluation Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 26
- 241000219094 Vitaceae Species 0.000 claims abstract description 24
- 235000021021 grapes Nutrition 0.000 claims abstract description 24
- 238000013316 zoning Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 10
- 238000012502 risk assessment Methods 0.000 claims description 52
- 241000219095 Vitis Species 0.000 claims description 24
- 238000012544 monitoring process Methods 0.000 claims description 18
- 230000002265 prevention Effects 0.000 claims description 14
- 238000010276 construction Methods 0.000 claims description 9
- 238000012545 processing Methods 0.000 claims description 9
- 230000035945 sensitivity Effects 0.000 claims description 7
- 230000035935 pregnancy Effects 0.000 claims description 6
- 238000004364 calculation method Methods 0.000 claims description 4
- 238000012937 correction Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 231100000727 exposure assessment Toxicity 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000010606 normalization Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 230000008014 freezing Effects 0.000 claims 1
- 238000007710 freezing Methods 0.000 claims 1
- 238000013210 evaluation model Methods 0.000 abstract description 4
- 230000000694 effects Effects 0.000 description 2
- 238000013459 approach Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000009286 beneficial effect Effects 0.000 description 1
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- 238000011835 investigation Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000011160 research Methods 0.000 description 1
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Abstract
The invention provides a method and a system for evaluating late frost meteorological disasters of grapes, a disaster risk evaluation model is obtained by comprehensively acquiring and analyzing various information, and acquired real-time early warning information, short-term early warning information and short-term forecast are input into the disaster risk evaluation model to obtain a disaster risk evaluation result; and then carrying out disaster influence analysis according to the occurrence time of the late frost of the grapes, calculating an analysis result and a disaster-bearing body to obtain a disaster risk zoning result, and pushing related industrial personnel in time to realize efficient automatic estimation and evaluation of the late frost and weather disasters of the grapes.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of disaster risk assessment, in particular to a method and a system for assessing late frost meteorological disasters of grapes.
Background
In recent years, frost weather disasters frequently occur in spring of Ningxia grapes, and economic losses brought to farmers and wine industries become more and more serious. Any meteorological disaster occurs as a result of combined action of disaster factors, pregnant disaster environments, disaster-bearing bodies and disaster prevention and reduction capabilities, wherein grapes serving as the disaster-bearing bodies are one of important links of disaster occurrence and have the closest relationship with human systems and social and economic systems, and therefore, research on risk assessment of the meteorological disasters is widely regarded.
At present, the evaluation of late frost damage of grapes is generally only carried out simple estimation through weather forecast, although the method is simple and direct, the prediction result of the method is possibly inaccurate, and the comprehensive evaluation is not carried out in combination with local geographic conditions, disaster coping conditions and the like, so that the disaster prevention and reduction effects are poor.
Therefore, a method and a system for evaluating grape late frost meteorological disasters are needed, and the problem that no efficient flow evaluation method and system aiming at grape late frost disasters exist at present can be solved.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a method and a system for evaluating grape late frost meteorological disasters, and aims to solve the problem that no efficient flow evaluation method and system aiming at grape late frost disasters exist at present.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention provides the following scheme:
the invention provides a method for evaluating late frost meteorological disasters of grapes, which comprises the following steps:
(1) collecting data, namely collecting basic geographic information, economic and social information, meteorological hydrological information, monitoring data information, satellite remote sensing data information, forecast data information and grape thematic data information of an evaluation area;
(2) the method comprises the steps of data processing, namely performing normalization processing, geometric correction, image splicing and mathematical calculation on acquired data information to obtain disaster indexes, constructing a disaster risk assessment model, and performing grade setting and alarm information setting on the disaster indexes in combination with historical disaster situations;
(3) risk assessment, namely inputting the acquired real-time early warning information, the acquired short-term early warning information and the acquired short-term forecast into the disaster risk assessment model, and performing disaster risk assessment by combining the spatial distribution of the disaster-bearing body and the vulnerability curve to obtain a disaster risk assessment result;
(4) risk zoning, namely performing disaster influence analysis according to the occurrence time of late frost of the grapes, and calculating an analysis result and a disaster-bearing body to obtain a disaster risk zoning result;
(5) and pushing information, namely sending the disaster risk assessment result and the disaster risk division result to industrial related personnel through a network, a WeChat applet and a short message.
Preferably, in step (3), the disaster risk assessment comprises a late frost disaster factor risk assessment.
Preferably, in step (3), the disaster risk assessment comprises an assessment of risk of the late frost pregnancy environment.
Preferably, in step (3), the disaster risk assessment comprises late frost disaster tolerance exposure assessment.
Preferably, in step (3), the disaster risk assessment comprises late frost disaster tolerance susceptibility assessment.
Preferably, in step (3), the disaster risk assessment includes an evaluation of late frost disaster prevention and reduction capability.
Preferably, in the step (3), a disaster risk assessment result is late frost disaster factor risk and late frost pregnancy disaster environment risk and late frost disaster bearing body exposure degree and late frost disaster bearing body sensitivity (1-late frost disaster prevention and reduction capability), wherein when none of the late frost disaster factor risk, the late frost disaster bearing environment risk, the late frost disaster bearing body exposure degree and the late frost disaster bearing body sensitivity is 0, the disaster risk assessment result is between 0 and 1; and when the late frost disaster prevention and reduction capability is 0, the disaster risk assessment result is 1, and when the late frost disaster prevention and reduction capability is 1, the disaster risk assessment result is 0.
The invention also provides a grape late frost and frost meteorological disaster assessment system which comprises a database, wherein the database is connected with a construction module, a data layering processing module, a data assimilation analysis module, a data product automatic drawing module and a system parameter configuration module are arranged in the construction module, the construction module is connected with a risk estimation and assessment module, the risk estimation and assessment module is connected with a retrieval module and a risk division module, the risk estimation and assessment module and the risk division module are respectively connected with a monitoring alarm module, and the monitoring alarm module is connected with a pushing module.
Preferably, basic geographic information, meteorological monitoring and historical data, grape and area data, numerical forecasting and forecasting plot, risk census and disaster information, social and economic data and risk assessment products are stored in the database.
Preferably, the data retrieved by the retrieval module comprises historical meteorological elements, disaster data, weather forecast data, multi-means monitoring data, grape thematic data, satellite remote sensing data and national weather bureau early warning information.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial technical effects:
according to the method and the system for evaluating the late frost meteorological disasters of the grapes, provided by the invention, a disaster risk evaluation model is obtained by comprehensively acquiring and analyzing various information, and acquired real-time early warning information, short-term early warning information and short-term forecast are input into the disaster risk evaluation model to obtain a disaster risk evaluation result; and then carrying out disaster influence analysis according to the occurrence time of the late frost of the grapes, calculating an analysis result and a disaster-bearing body to obtain a disaster risk zoning result, and pushing related industrial personnel in time to realize efficient automatic estimation and evaluation of the late frost and weather disasters of the grapes.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings needed to be used in the embodiments will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious for those skilled in the art to obtain other drawings without inventive exercise.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for evaluating late frost meteorological disasters of grapes according to the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram showing the connection relationship of the parts of the late frost meteorological disaster evaluation system for grapes provided by the present invention;
in the figure: 1: database, 2: building a module, 3: risk estimation and evaluation module, 4: retrieval module, 5: risk zoning module, 6: monitoring alarm module, 7: and a pushing module.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
The invention aims to provide a method and a system for evaluating grape late frost meteorological disasters, and solves the problem that no efficient flow evaluation method and system aiming at grape late frost disasters exist at present.
In order to make the aforementioned objects, features and advantages of the present invention comprehensible, embodiments accompanied with figures are described in further detail below.
Example 1:
the embodiment provides a method for evaluating late frost meteorological disasters of grapes, which comprises the following steps of:
(1) collecting data, namely collecting basic geographic information, economic and social information, meteorological hydrological information, monitoring data information, satellite remote sensing data information, forecast data information and grape thematic data information of an evaluation area;
(2) data processing, namely performing normalization processing, geometric correction, image splicing and mathematical calculation on the acquired data information to obtain disaster indexes, constructing a disaster risk assessment model, and performing grade setting and alarm information setting on the disaster indexes in combination with historical disaster conditions;
(3) risk assessment, namely inputting the acquired real-time early warning information, the acquired short-term early warning information and the acquired short-term forecast into a disaster risk assessment model, and performing disaster risk assessment by combining the spatial distribution of the disaster-bearing body and the vulnerability curve to obtain a disaster risk assessment result;
(4) risk zoning, namely performing disaster influence analysis according to the occurrence time of late frost of the grapes, calculating an analysis result and a disaster-bearing body, and obtaining a disaster risk zoning result by means of GIS software;
(5) and pushing information, namely sending the disaster risk assessment result and the disaster risk division result to industrial related personnel through a network, a WeChat applet and a short message.
Specifically, in the step (3), the disaster risk assessment comprises the risk assessment of the late frost disaster-causing factor.
Further, in the step (3), the disaster risk assessment comprises an assessment of the risk of the late frost pregnancy disaster environment.
Further, in the step (3), the disaster risk assessment comprises late frost disaster-bearing body exposure assessment.
Further, in the step (3), the disaster risk assessment comprises late frost disaster-bearing body sensitivity assessment.
Further, in the step (3), the disaster risk assessment comprises late frost disaster prevention and reduction capability assessment.
Further, in the step (3), a disaster risk evaluation result is late frost disaster-causing factor risk and late frost pregnancy disaster environment risk and late frost disaster-bearing body exposure degree (1-late frost disaster prevention and reduction capability), wherein when the late frost disaster-causing factor risk, the late frost disaster-bearing environment risk, the late frost disaster-bearing body exposure degree and the late frost disaster-bearing body sensitivity are all not 0, the disaster risk evaluation result is between 0 and 1; when the late frost disaster prevention and reduction capability is 0, the disaster risk assessment result is 1, and when the late frost disaster prevention and reduction capability is 1, the disaster risk assessment result is 0.
Aiming at the method for evaluating the late frost meteorological disaster of the grape, the embodiment further provides a corresponding system for evaluating the late frost meteorological disaster of the grape, as shown in fig. 2, the system comprises a database 1, the database is connected with a construction module 2, a data layering processing module, a data assimilation analysis module, an automatic data product drawing module and a system parameter configuration module are arranged in the construction module 2, the construction module 2 is connected with a risk estimation evaluation module 3, the risk estimation evaluation module 3 is connected with a retrieval module 4 and a risk division module 5, the risk estimation evaluation module 3 and the risk division module 5 are respectively connected with a monitoring alarm module 6, and the monitoring alarm module 6 is connected with a pushing module 7.
Specifically, the database 1 stores basic geographic information, weather monitoring and historical data, grape and area data, numerical prediction and prediction plot, risk census and disaster information, social and economic data, and risk assessment products.
Furthermore, the data retrieved by the retrieval module 4 comprises historical meteorological elements, disaster data, weather forecast data, multi-means monitoring data, grape thematic data, satellite remote sensing data and national meteorological bureau early warning information.
The invention provides a method and a system for evaluating late frost meteorological disasters of grapes, which are based on a WEBGIS platform, monitor disaster-causing factors and alarm to remind relevant industrial personnel when the disaster-causing factors approach or reach disaster-causing proximity conditions (or self-defined threshold values). The system realizes real-time monitoring and automatic refreshing of data, automatically judges disaster critical conditions, automatically performs early warning when various monitoring indexes reach the critical conditions, gives an alarm in a flashing, character and sound mode on a map, and displays information such as early warning sites or ranges. Supporting a front-end output map (deriving PNG), carrying out disaster-causing factor climate background analysis, superposition analysis and comprehensive contrast analysis on risk prediction and evaluation mainly based on real-time meteorological data, historical meteorological data, forecast and forecast data, frost risk zoning data, historical disaster data, grape variety area and other data to generate a pre-evaluation product before rainstorm flood and waterlogging, wherein the weight can be adjusted by a specialist in the prediction process to ensure that the result is closer to reality, and finally outputting a disaster risk prediction report; evaluation after disaster: the assessment after the disaster occurs is mainly assessed through disaster condition investigation information and actual frost disaster conditions, one can be directly calculated and assessed through a damage consequence calculation method, the other can be calculated through a disaster damage curve method, the two results are mutually verified, the assessment process can be corrected by an expert, and finally a risk assessment report is formed.
The principle and the implementation mode of the invention are explained by applying specific examples, and the description of the above examples is only used for helping understanding the method and the core idea of the invention; meanwhile, for a person skilled in the art, according to the idea of the present invention, the specific embodiments and the application range may be changed. In summary, this summary should not be construed to limit the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A grape late frost meteorological disaster assessment method is characterized by comprising the following steps: the method comprises the following steps:
(1) collecting data, namely collecting basic geographic information, economic and social information, meteorological hydrological information, monitoring data information, satellite remote sensing data information, forecast data information and grape thematic data information of an evaluation area;
(2) the method comprises the steps of data processing, namely performing normalization processing, geometric correction, image splicing and mathematical calculation on acquired data information to obtain disaster indexes, constructing a disaster risk assessment model, and performing grade setting and alarm information setting on the disaster indexes in combination with historical disaster situations;
(3) risk assessment, namely inputting the acquired real-time early warning information, the acquired short-term early warning information and the acquired short-term forecast into the disaster risk assessment model, and performing disaster risk assessment by combining the spatial distribution of the disaster-bearing body and the vulnerability curve to obtain a disaster risk assessment result;
(4) risk zoning, namely performing disaster influence analysis according to the occurrence time of late frost of the grapes, and calculating an analysis result and a disaster-bearing body to obtain a disaster risk zoning result;
(5) and pushing information, namely sending the disaster risk assessment result and the disaster risk division result to industrial related personnel through a network, a WeChat applet and a short message.
2. The late frost meteorological disaster assessment method for grapes according to claim 1, wherein: in the step (3), the disaster risk assessment comprises the risk assessment of the late frost disaster-causing factor.
3. The late frost meteorological disaster assessment method for grapes according to claim 2, wherein: in the step (3), the disaster risk assessment comprises an assessment of the risk of the late frost pregnancy disaster environment.
4. The late frost meteorological disaster assessment method for grapes according to claim 3, wherein: in the step (3), the disaster risk assessment comprises late frost disaster-bearing body exposure assessment.
5. The late frost meteorological disaster assessment method for grapes according to claim 4, wherein: in the step (3), the disaster risk assessment comprises late frost disaster-bearing body sensitivity assessment.
6. The late frost meteorological disaster assessment method for grapes according to claim 5, wherein: in the step (3), the disaster risk assessment comprises late frost disaster prevention and reduction capability assessment.
7. The late frost meteorological disaster assessment method for grapes according to claim 6, wherein: in the step (3), a disaster risk assessment result is late frost disaster-causing factor risk and late frost pregnancy disaster environment risk and late frost disaster-bearing body exposure and late frost disaster-bearing body sensitivity (1-late frost disaster prevention and reduction capability), wherein when the late frost disaster-causing factor risk, the late frost disaster-bearing environment risk, the late frost disaster-bearing body exposure and the late frost disaster-bearing body sensitivity are all not 0, the disaster risk assessment result is between 0 and 1; and when the late frost disaster prevention and reduction capability is 0, the disaster risk assessment result is 1, and when the late frost disaster prevention and reduction capability is 1, the disaster risk assessment result is 0.
8. The grape night frost freezing meteorological disaster assessment system is characterized in that: the system comprises a database, the database is connected with a construction module, a data layering processing module, a data assimilation analysis module, an automatic data product drawing module and a system parameter configuration module are arranged in the construction module, the construction module is connected with a risk estimation and evaluation module, the risk estimation and evaluation module is connected with a retrieval module and a risk division module, the risk estimation and evaluation module and the risk division module are respectively connected with a monitoring and alarming module, and the monitoring and alarming module is connected with a pushing module.
9. The grape night frost weather hazard assessment system of claim 8, wherein: basic geographic information, meteorological monitoring and historical data, grape and area data, numerical forecasting and forecasting plot, risk general survey and disaster information, social and economic data and risk assessment products are stored in the database.
10. The grape night frost weather hazard assessment system of claim 8, wherein: the data retrieved by the retrieval module comprises historical meteorological elements, disaster situation data, weather forecast data, multi-means monitoring data, grape thematic data, satellite remote sensing data and early warning information of the national weather bureau.
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Cited By (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN115830813A (en) * | 2023-02-15 | 2023-03-21 | 江西和壹科技有限公司 | Natural disaster monitoring and early warning system based on AI technology |
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