CN105389740A - Agricultural drought risk assessment method based on crop growth model - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses an agricultural drought risk assessment method based on a crop growth model. The agricultural drought risk assessment method comprises the following steps: (1) establishing a crop growth model, wherein the crop growth model established in the step (1) adopts a crop EPIC (Erosion-Productivity Impact Calculator) model; and (2) on the basis of the crop growth model established in the step (1), carrying out agricultural drought risk assessment, wherein the agricultural drought risk assessment is carried out from three aspects including disaster-inducing factor dangerousness H evaluation, hazard-affected body vulnerability curve Vc evaluation and risk R evaluation. The EPIC model is established, an agricultural drought risk assessment "H-Vc-R" system concept model of "disaster-inducing factor dangerousness H evaluation (Hazard), hazard-affected body vulnerability curve Vc evaluation (Vulnerability Curve) and risk R evaluation (Risk)" is constructed, agricultural drought delay is scientifically considered, comprehensive and reliable assessment is carried out on agricultural drought risks, and the agricultural drought risk assessment method exhibits better objectivity and maneuverability.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to agricultural drought disaster risk assessment technology field, particularly relate to a kind of agricultural drought disaster methods of risk assessment based on crop growth model.
Background technology
Grain is the material base that the mankind depend on for existence, and Food Security is always the grand strategy sex chromosome mosaicism of relation national stability and economic development.Early stage agricultural drought disaster Study on Risk Assessment, carrying out is more the occurrence risk Study of recognition of region drought, mainly carries out from the angle of meteorological drought formation mechenism and evaluation index.On different regional scales, mostly according to the arid grade drafted in advance and standard thereof, applicating atmosphere drought index, carries out EARLY RECOGNITION and risk assessment to drought event, carries out arid and starts, terminates and the research of aridity risk degree.
Agricultural drought disaster risk investigation the most important thing is the impact of correct reflection arid for agricultural losses, and is not only the risk assessment technology that arid occurs.Along with the drought disaster risk evaluation study of crops hazard-affected body gos deep into gradually, most research is all utilize the relation between the specific drought index of crop modeling quantitative simulation (quantity of precipitation, Crop water deficits etc.) and crop biomass, to crop because micro risks evaluation is carried out in drought loss.According to existing technological achievement, in the evaluation of crops drought disaster risk, the content that people carry out risk assessment concentrates on macroscopical aspect mostly, evaluation data used is based on crop yield data, not deep enough to the agricultural drought disaster development law understanding of crops, the analysis of evaluation index difinite quality also has quantitative evaluation, and standard is also inconsistent.In addition, existing research is the venture analysis carried out according to historical summary mostly, comprehensive analyzes causing calamity, pregnant calamity, cause disaster and the evaluation of factor such as combating a natural disaster of arid, but still weaker.From microcosmic aspect, based on the research of plant growth mechanism, mostly supposed by sight, adopt grow mechanism and the disastrous risk of crop modeling simulation crop.
As denomination of invention is: a kind of regional drought risk assessment method, application number is propose a kind of regional drought risk assessment method in the patent application of 201310631976.4, and the method comprises: call regional drought risk estimation model; Evaluation of risk plug-in unit is created according to this regional drought risk estimation model; At least one the pregnant calamity factor at least one point-of-interest, at least one Flood inducing factors, at least one hazard-affected body vulnerability assessment Summing Factor drought zoning index in the area-of-interest obtained to the input of evaluation of risk plug-in unit from different data source; And evaluation of risk plug-in unit is for performing following operation: calculate drought sensitivity indices based at least one pregnant calamity factor; Drought risk index is calculated based at least one Flood inducing factors; Drought disaster vulnerability index is calculated based at least one hazard-affected body vulnerability assessment factor; Summation is weighted to calculate drought disaster risk index to drought zoning index, drought sensitivity indices, drought risk index and drought disaster vulnerability index; And estimate drought disaster risk according to the drought disaster risk index calculated.There are following 3 deficiencies in this technical method: 1) needs data based on different pieces of information source, hinders the enforcement assessing agricultural drought disaster degree of risk on a large scale; 2) drought zoning index is based on experimental formula, there is local applicability, is not easy to promote on a large scale; 3) this drought risk assessment method has some limitations, and considers insufficient to the generation influence on development factor of agricultural drought disaster, and this makes the result assessed can only be the evaluation of a certain moment static state, and does not scientifically portray the deferred property of agricultural drought disaster.
As can be seen here, above-mentioned existing agricultural drought disaster methods of risk assessment still has defect, how to found a kind of agricultural drought disaster methods of risk assessment based on crop growth model newly, becomes the target that current industry pole need be improved.
Summary of the invention
The technical problem to be solved in the present invention is to provide a kind of agricultural drought disaster methods of risk assessment based on crop growth model, it is made to take into full account the deferred property of agricultural drought disaster, comprehensively reliable agricultural drought disaster risk to be assessed, thus overcome the deficiency of existing agricultural drought disaster methods of risk assessment.
For solving the problems of the technologies described above, the invention provides a kind of agricultural drought disaster methods of risk assessment based on crop growth model, comprising the steps:
(1) crop growth model is set up;
(2) crop growth model set up based on step (1) is assessed agricultural drought disaster risk, and the described assessment carried out agricultural drought disaster risk is evaluated three aspects from the dangerous H evaluation of Flood inducing factors, hazard-affected body vulnerability curve Vc evaluation and risk R and carried out.
As a modification of the present invention, the crop growth model that described step (1) is set up adopts crop EPIC model.
Further improvement, it is the relation studying arid Flood inducing factors generation intensity and probability that the dangerous H of described agricultural drought disaster evaluates, and the computing formula that its Crops Drought causes calamity intensity index is as follows:
Wherein, Hyj is that the arid at y jth station causes calamity intensity index, and H is that the arid in Growing Season of Crops causes calamity intensity index, WSi be the same day affected by water stress for i-th day coerce value, n is the number of days affected by water stress in Growing season, and maxH is in simulated all websites all times
maximal value, minH is in simulated all websites all times
minimum value.
Further improvement, it is study the relation between drought intensity and Crop damage that described hazard-affected body vulnerability curve Vc evaluates, and the computing formula of the loss percentage V of its crop specific yield is as follows:
Wherein, Vyj is the specific yield loss percentage of y j station drought, Ys
1and Ys
2be respectively the specific yield under two kinds of sights, S1 sight is that crop meets nutrient and the sight meeting moisture completely completely, and S2 sight is that crop meets the nutrient sight foster with complete rain, maxYs completely
1j is that j stands maximum unit output for many years, minYs
1j is that j stands least unit output for many years.
Further improvement, it is the probability distribution that research agricultural drought disaster is lost that described agricultural drought disaster risk R evaluates, and the index that its crop drought disaster risk R evaluates adopts the probability distribution value R of crop drought loss
lrepresent, its formula is as follows:
R
L＝Rp(Vyj)
Wherein, R
lfor the probability of certain period j station drought production loss rate, Vyj is the specific yield loss percentage of y j station drought.
Further improvement, the assessment carried out agricultural drought disaster risk in described step (2) also comprises the assessment to whole evaluation unit m kind hazard-affected body overall risk degree, be by the agrotype in refinement assay unit, crop varieties, crop-planting ratio and the assessment considering the ability of preventing and reducing natural disasters, in its evaluation unit, the overall risk degree Rm computing formula of m kind hazard-affected body is as follows:
Wherein, m represents the kind number of hazard-affected body in evaluation unit; Hpni represents the probability of i-th kind of hazard-affected body danger when Middle altitude mountain grade is N; Vni represents the vulnerability class of i-th kind of hazard-affected body when Middle altitude mountain grade is N; Ei represents the area that i-th kind of hazard-affected body exposes.
Adopt above-mentioned technical scheme, the present invention at least has the following advantages:
The present invention adopts EPIC model, and " H-Vc-R " system concept model of the agricultural drought disaster risk assessment of " the dangerous H of Flood inducing factors evaluate (Hazard)-hazard-affected body vulnerability curve Vc evaluate (VulnerabilityCurve)-risk R evaluate (Risk) " by constructing, scientifically consider the deferred property of agricultural drought disaster, assessment reliably has comprehensively been carried out to crop drought disaster risk, and the method is suitable for large-scale promotion.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Above-mentioned is only the general introduction of technical solution of the present invention, and in order to better understand technological means of the present invention, below in conjunction with accompanying drawing and embodiment, the present invention is described in further detail.
Fig. 1 is " H-Vc-R " system model schematic diagram of the agricultural drought disaster risk assessment that the present invention is based on crop growth model.
Embodiment
Agricultural drought disaster be one slowly and continuous print process, because the meteorological elements such as precipitation, temperature, wind speed, illumination cause the continuous decrease of soil moisture, all many-sided adverse effects can be produced to the growth of crops, growth.Crops are in growth course, and most water requirement all derives from soil moisture, and the number of soil moisture content directly affects growing of crop.Therefore, the reason that agricultural drought disaster is most crucial is exactly " crops need the balance of water and water supply " problem.Analyze the Forming Mechanism of agricultural drought disaster risk, must carry out from " moisture " and " crops " two aspects.
Based on the agricultural drought disaster development law of crops, " H-Vc-R " system concept model of the agricultural drought disaster risk assessment that the present invention constructs " the dangerous H of Flood inducing factors evaluates (Hazard)-hazard-affected body vulnerability curve Vc and evaluates (VulnerabilityCurve)-risk R evaluation (Risk) ".With reference to shown in accompanying drawing 1, following this agricultural drought disaster methods of risk assessment to be described in detail.
First, agricultural crops growth model is set up.
The present invention adopts crop EPIC model: erosion-yield-power impact evaluation model (ErosionProductivityImpactCalculator, EPIC) be Water and soil resources management and the crop-producing power evaluation model of United States Department of Agriculture in 1984 development, be suitable for simulation shift of crops, farming puts into practice, plants date, irrigation and fertilising strategy etc.EPIC take day as time step, can simulate the dynamic change of farmland water and soil resources from a Growing season to upper a century and crop-producing power.As the universal crop production systems analogy model of the many crops of one, EPIC model can simulate hundreds of crop, herbage and arboreal growth, be characterized in developing its main body frame according to the general character of various crop physiology and ecology process, then carry out the growth simulation of each crop respectively in conjunction with the growth parameter(s) of crop and field management parameter.
Secondly, based on above-mentioned EPIC model, agricultural (crop) drought disaster risk is assessed.
" H-Vc-R " system concept model of the agricultural drought disaster risk assessment that the present invention constructs " the dangerous H of Flood inducing factors evaluates (Hazard)-hazard-affected body vulnerability curve Vc and evaluates (VulnerabilityCurve)-risk R evaluation (Risk) ".
Wherein, the dangerous H of (one) agricultural drought disaster evaluates is the relation studying arid Flood inducing factors generation intensity and probability.
Theoretical based on Disaster System, on the basis that agricultural drought disaster risk Forming Mechanism is understood, the height of definition agricultural drought disaster risk is within the specific period in future, and the crop yield extent of damage formed by Flood inducing factors, pregnant calamity environment and hazard-affected body (crops) coupling spatially determined.The danger of agricultural drought disaster Flood inducing factors refers to that the possibility that drought event occurs, hazard assessment are exactly the risk factor from risk, the possibility that research drought event occurs, i.e. probability.Namely the evaluation of H identifies the factor of certain region intensity arid, carries out quantitative evaluation, calculates the probability that a certain arid Flood inducing factors intensity occurs.
Concrete, utilize the weather data day by day that the WXGEN simulation in EPIC model is following, carry out the evaluation of crop drought disaster risk with analog result, calculate following 40 years 2006-2046 sight weather data series collection of illustrative plates.Water stress is the factor selecting to describe its Flood inducing factors intensity.Arid is caused to the calculating of calamity intensity index, because the Middle altitude mountain of crop in a Growing season is jointly determined by the size of water stress numerical value and the number of days of coercing, based on this, the present invention proposes under rain supports the sight of crop, from EPIC crop growth model day Output rusults, propose the water stress value on the same day affected by water stress in each Growing season and coerce lasting number of days, constructing the index H of crop drought hazard assessment.Computing formula is shown in following formula:
Wherein, H is that the arid in Growing Season of Crops causes calamity intensity index, and Hyj is that the arid at y jth station causes calamity intensity index, WSi be the same day affected by water stress for i-th day coerce value, n is the number of days affected by water stress in Growing season, and maxH is in simulated all websites all times
maximal value, minH is in simulated all websites all times
minimum value.
(2) agricultural drought vulnerability curve Vc evaluates is exactly study the relation between drought intensity and Crop damage
The fragility of so-called agricultural drought disaster refers to that hazard-affected body suffers varying strength arid to cause the possible loss degree of calamity, usually represents by loss percentage.Hazard-affected body fragility in practical application can be divided into Natural vulnerability and social system fragility.The inherent disastrous mechanisms process of the fragility desalination disaster of social system, and Natural vulnerability is only towards causing disaster individuality, refer to the specific inherent physical attribute of hazard-affected body itself, therefore, Natural vulnerability (PhysicalVulnerability) is more conducive to the process disclosing disaster Disaster mechanism.As treated by the hazard-affected body of suffering from drought of a strain corn as microcosmic, meticulousr vulnerability analysis can be carried out.Use vulnerability curve (VulnerabilityCurve) to weigh funtcional relationship between the arid of varying strength and Crop damage (rate), generally mainly to express in graph form.Different crops has different " crop natural frangibility linearity curve " (Vc), to show that crops arid causes the relation between calamity intensity and production loss rate, evaluate the fragility of hazard-affected body like this based on microcosmic angle, construct bridge for agricultural drought disaster causes between calamity and disastrous risk.
Concrete, the evaluation index that Crops Drought causes calamity intensity index is chosen to be the accumulated value of water stress day by day in Growing Season of Crops; The output that the evaluation index of production loss rate is chosen to be S1 sight in the annual Growing season of each website (meet nutrient completely and meet moisture completely) deducts the production loss rate index of S2 sight (meet nutrient completely and complete rain is supported).Specific formula for calculation is as follows:
Wherein, Vyj is the specific yield loss percentage of y j station drought, Ys
1and Ys
2be respectively the specific yield under two kinds of sights, maxYs
1j is that j stands maximum unit output for many years, minYs
1j is that j stands least unit output for many years.
(3) agricultural drought disaster risk R evaluates is exactly the probability distribution that research agricultural drought disaster is lost
The model system of the agricultural drought disaster venture analysis that the present invention proposes, it is the evaluation based on Natural vulnerability, do not considering various drought resisting mitigation ability, when exposed property is 1 (crop distributive province), thinking that the risk of evaluation unit is exactly the function causing calamity intensity and fragility simultaneously.For the frequency that all Crops Drought intensity occurs, calculate the loss percentage that it may suffer respectively.Therefore, the probability distribution value (R of crop drought loss is chosen
l) as crop drought disaster risk evaluate index.As shown in the formula (3):
R
L＝Rp(Vyj)(3)
Wherein, R
lfor the probability of certain period j station drought production loss rate, Vyj is the specific yield loss percentage of y j station drought.
In order to the result making crop drought disaster risk evaluate is more accurate, the present invention also refinement analyzes agrotype, crop varieties, the crop-planting ratio in grid cell and considers the problems such as the ability of preventing and reducing natural disasters, again according to " H-Sp-E " conceptual model of agricultural drought disaster risk, carry out agricultural drought disaster Flood inducing factors hazard assessment, the analysis of agricultural drought disaster exposed property and the evaluation of hazard-affected body vulnerability curve successively, finally calculate (there are polytype crops usually) risk of 1 minimum evaluation unit according to formula (4).
Wherein, m represents the kind number of hazard-affected body in evaluation unit; Hpni represents the probability of i-th kind of hazard-affected body danger when Middle altitude mountain grade is N; Vni represents the vulnerability class of i-th kind of hazard-affected body when Middle altitude mountain grade is N; Ei represents the area that i-th kind of hazard-affected body exposes; And Rm represents the overall risk degree of m kind hazard-affected body in evaluation unit.
According to above-mentioned steps, its drought penalty values is calculated to hazard-affected bodies all in study area, the cumulative total losses value that can obtain this frequency arid and may bring.To all frequencies, calculate possible loss respectively, just can obtain the probability distribution of drought loss.
The present invention for core index with " Crop Water Stress ", constructs agricultural drought disaster and causes calamity intensity index (H).This index more fully can reflect that the agricultural arid caused because of water deficit by plant growths such as meteorology, the hydrology and irrigations in process of crop growth affects, and the size of this index also represent the situation of the plant growth restriction that continuous lack of water in a period of time causes simultaneously.Arid after improvement causes calamity intensity index and had both illustrated the degree that crops suffer from drought, and show also the duration that crops are suffered from drought.Therefore, select this index to be that the calamity intensity that causes of agricultural drought disaster not only facilitates operation in calculating, also feature the cumulative effect of arid pressure and deferred feature better.
The present invention is using hazard-affected body vulnerability curve (Vc) as the core index of agricultural drought disaster hazard-affected body fragility, this index refers to the damaed cordition of a certain kind crop under suffering difference to cause the strike of calamity intensity, the size of its loss has close relationship with the size causing calamity intensity, and this characteristic is a kind of character of hazard-affected body inherence itself.The hazard-affected body vulnerability curve concept proposed in the application, calculate by EPIC crop growth model, hazard-affected body fragility is made to become a dynamic Process Character value, the quantitative relationship caused between calamity intensity and Crop damage is featured, for method basis has been established in agricultural drought disaster risk assessment from the angle science of Disaster mechanism.
The present invention also characterizes agricultural drought disaster risk (R) with the probability distribution of drought loss, think that the risk of evaluation unit is the function causing calamity intensity and fragility, the possible loss probability that the probability of happening of calamity intensity and hazard-affected body vulnerability curve calculate crops under different risk level is caused by different drought, and in this, as agricultural drought disaster risk evaluation results, method has more objectivity and operability.
The above; it is only preferred embodiment of the present invention; not do any pro forma restriction to the present invention, those skilled in the art utilize the technology contents of above-mentioned announcement to make a little simple modification, equivalent variations or modification, all drop in protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (6)
1., based on an agricultural drought disaster methods of risk assessment for crop growth model, it is characterized in that, comprise the steps:
(1) crop growth model is set up;
(2) crop growth model set up based on step (1) is assessed agricultural drought disaster risk, and the described assessment carried out agricultural drought disaster risk is evaluated three aspects from the dangerous H evaluation of Flood inducing factors, hazard-affected body vulnerability curve Vc evaluation and risk R and carried out.
2. agricultural drought disaster methods of risk assessment according to claim 1, is characterized in that, the crop growth model that described step (1) is set up adopts crop EPIC model.
3. agricultural drought disaster methods of risk assessment according to claim 2, is characterized in that, it is the relation studying arid Flood inducing factors generation intensity and probability that the dangerous H of described agricultural drought disaster evaluates, and the computing formula that its Crops Drought causes calamity intensity index is as follows:
Wherein, Hyj is that the arid at y jth station causes calamity intensity index, and H is that the arid in Growing Season of Crops causes calamity intensity index, WSi be the same day affected by water stress for i-th day coerce value, n is the number of days affected by water stress in Growing season, and maxH is in simulated all websites all times
maximal value, minH is in simulated all websites all times
minimum value.
4. agricultural drought disaster methods of risk assessment according to claim 3, is characterized in that, it is study the relation between drought intensity and Crop damage that described hazard-affected body vulnerability curve Vc evaluates, and the computing formula of the loss percentage V of its crop specific yield is as follows:
Wherein, Vyj is the specific yield loss percentage of y j station drought, Ys
1and Ys
2be respectively the specific yield under two kinds of sights, S1 sight is that crop meets nutrient and the sight meeting moisture completely completely, and S2 sight is that crop meets the nutrient sight foster with complete rain, maxYs completely
1j is that j stands maximum unit output for many years, minYs
1j is that j stands least unit output for many years.
5. agricultural drought disaster methods of risk assessment according to claim 4, is characterized in that, it is the probability distribution that research agricultural drought disaster is lost that described agricultural drought disaster risk R evaluates, and the index that its crop drought disaster risk R evaluates adopts the probability distribution value R of crop drought loss
lrepresent, its formula is as follows:
R
L＝Rp(Vyj)
Wherein, R
lfor the probability of certain period j station drought production loss rate, Vyj is the specific yield loss percentage of y j station drought.
6. agricultural drought disaster methods of risk assessment according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, the assessment carried out agricultural drought disaster risk in described step (2) also comprises the assessment to whole evaluation unit m kind hazard-affected body overall risk degree, be by the agrotype in refinement assay unit, crop varieties, crop-planting ratio and the assessment considering the ability of preventing and reducing natural disasters, in its evaluation unit, the overall risk degree Rm computing formula of m kind hazard-affected body is as follows:
Wherein, m represents the kind number of hazard-affected body in evaluation unit; Hpni represents the probability of i-th kind of hazard-affected body danger when Middle altitude mountain grade is N; Vni represents the vulnerability class of i-th kind of hazard-affected body when Middle altitude mountain grade is N; Ei represents the area that i-th kind of hazard-affected body exposes.
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| CN109145454A (en) * | 2018-08-24 | 2019-01-04 | 中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 | The method that triple exponential models portray snow disaster in pastoral area restoring force space-time characterisation |
| CN109145454B (en) * | 2018-08-24 | 2023-03-28 | 中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 | Method for depicting space-time characteristics of snow disaster resilience of pastoral area by triple exponential model |
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| CN112465356B (en) * | 2020-11-30 | 2023-05-23 | 国网四川省电力公司电力科学研究院 | Improved quantitative evaluation method and system for vulnerability of collapse geological disaster substance |
| CN113516418A (en) * | 2021-08-27 | 2021-10-19 | 中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所 | Apple planting area drought disaster risk assessment method |
| CN113516418B (en) * | 2021-08-27 | 2024-04-26 | 中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所 | Drought disaster risk assessment method for apple planting area |
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| CN113849763A (en) * | 2021-11-22 | 2021-12-28 | 中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所 | Winter wheat-summer corn drought disaster risk assessment method, storage medium and terminal |
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