CN113806865B - Method for predicting temperature deviation - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for predicting temperature deviation, which comprises the steps of obtaining a temperature deviation measured value of the current position of an aircraft, which is measured in real time by an airborne atmospheric data computer, and obtaining a temperature deviation predicted value of a predicted point on a multifunctional control display unit; after confirming the relative geometrical relation between the current position of the airplane and the predicted point, the temperature deviation predicted value of the predicted point is calculated. The method comprehensively considers the influence of the relative position relation between the real-time position of the airplane and the predicted point on the predicted temperature of the predicted point when in implementation, and effectively improves the capabilities of the flight management system for performance optimization calculation, arrival time prediction, actual fuel consumption and flight time estimation. The method can effectively support four-dimensional track operation, flight interval management, altitude layer change and conflict management, is easy to realize engineering, and has important practical application significance for operation of the aircraft in the civil field, in particular for operation of supporting required arrival time.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of flight management, and relates to a method for predicting temperature deviation.
Background
Weather information has an important impact on the performance prediction of an aircraft. For aircraft prediction, the connotation of weather information includes temperature, pressure and wind. Accurate weather predictions will greatly improve the ability to optimize calculations and arrival time predictions, as well as estimates of actual fuel consumption and time of flight. Under FAA new generation air traffic system (NextGen) and european single sky (SESAR) initiatives, accurate weather information is very important for the assumption of certain future air traffic concepts. Accurate weather information will affect time-based traffic management, including in particular four-dimensional track (4 DTRAD) operation, flight Interval Management (FIM), altitude layer change (ITP), and collision management (ACM), among others.
The conditions of temperature, pressure and wind that are predicted to be encountered during flight are part of the flight plan management process. The predictions of temperature, pressure, and wind make the track predictions of the flight management system more accurate to provide more accurate Estimates of Time of Arrival (ETA), fuel consumption, climb/descent rate, and construction of leg transitions.
The multi-function display control unit (MCDU) is a direct dialog window for pilots with the flight management system through which they can directly input forecast temperature and forecast wind data. The pilot can also request the airline operation control center to send the forecast temperature and the forecast wind data to the flight management system through the data link by pressing the weather information request button on the MCDU. The forecast temperature on the MCDU has two forms, one is ISA offset, and can be applied to the whole flight phase; the other is the leg ISA offset, corresponding to each leg. The onboard air data computer can measure the temperature of the current position of the aircraft in real time. The flight management system can predict the predicted temperature of the subsequent point in real time according to the measured temperature information of the current position of the aircraft and the predicted temperature information on the MCDU.
Four-dimensional track operation, flight interval management, altitude layer change and conflict management are all brand-new concepts for domestic civil aircraft manufacturers, scientific research institutions and design companies. The difference between our country and abroad is large, and colleges and universities and colleges in China keep pace with the development of foreign technologies, a series of technical researches on wind prediction are developed, for example, some scientific research institutions develop wind prediction technical researches based on data chain grid wind, digital control workstations based on track operation and the like. But domestic rarely holds for temperature excursion prediction.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a method for predicting temperature deviation, which meets the requirements of four-dimensional track operation, flight interval management, altitude layer change and conflict management on temperature prediction accuracy. The innovation points and the difficulties of the method are as follows: the method fully utilizes limited resources such as measured temperature information of the current position of the airplane and forecast temperature information of the forecast point, relative geometric relation between the current position of the airplane and the forecast point, and the like, and calculates the forecast temperature information of the current forecast point by a virtual airplane method. The method comprehensively considers the influence of the relative position relation between the real-time position of the airplane and the predicted point on the predicted temperature of the predicted point when in implementation.
The invention aims at realizing the following technical scheme:
a method of predicting temperature excursions, comprising the steps of:
step 1, acquiring a temperature deviation measurement value ISA delta of the current position of an airplane, which is measured in real time by an airborne air data computer m Obtaining a temperature deviation forecast value ISA delta of a forecast point on a multifunctional control display unit f ；
Step 2, after confirming whether the predicted point is in the climbing stage, the cruising stage or the descending stage and the relative geometrical relation between the current position of the airplane and the predicted point, combining the ISA delta obtained in the step 1 m And ISA delta f Is used for calculating a temperature deviation predicted value ISA delta of a predicted point p 。
Preferably, in step 2, if the predicted point is in the ascent stage, the predicted point temperature is deviated by the predicted value ISA Δ p ＝ISAΔ f 。
Preferably, in step 2, if the predicted point is in the cruise phase, the distance d between the current position of the aircraft and the predicted point of the vertical profile is calculated Distance difference Setting a distance difference threshold d Distance difference threshold ；
(a) If d Distance difference ≤d Distance difference threshold ISA delta is calculated using the following formula p ：
ISAΔ p ＝{[(d Distance difference threshold -d Distance difference )*ISAΔ m ]+d Distance difference *ISAΔ f }/d Distance difference threshold
(b) If d Distance difference ＞d Distance difference threshold ISA delta p ＝ISAΔ f 。
Preferably, in step 2, if the predicted point is in the descent phase, the altitude difference h between the current position of the aircraft and the predicted point of the vertical profile is calculated Height difference Setting a height difference threshold h Threshold value of altitude difference The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Computing a flyDistance d between current position of machine and predicted point of vertical section Distance difference Setting a distance difference threshold d Distance difference threshold ：
(a) If the current position of the aircraft is after the descent vertex, if h Height difference ≤h Threshold value of altitude difference ISA delta p ＝{[(h Threshold value of altitude difference -h Height difference )*ISAΔ m ]+h Height difference *ISAΔ f }/h Threshold value of altitude difference ；
If h Height difference ＞h Threshold value of altitude difference ISA delta p ＝ISAΔ f ；
(b) If the current position of the aircraft is in front of the descending vertex, a virtual aircraft is assumed to be above the cruising altitude, and the virtual aircraft is assumed to be different from the cruising altitude by h Virtual height difference Using equation (d) Distance difference threshold -d Distance difference )/d Distance difference threshold ＝(h Threshold value of altitude difference -h Virtual height difference )/h Threshold value of altitude difference Calculate h Virtual height difference ；
If h Height difference ≤h Threshold value of altitude difference -h Virtual height difference Then:
ISAΔ p ＝(h threshold value of altitude difference -(h Height difference +h Virtual height difference ))/h Threshold value of altitude difference *ISAΔ m +(h Height difference +h Virtual height difference )/h Threshold value of altitude difference *ISAΔ f ；
If h Height difference ＞h Threshold value of altitude difference -h Virtual height difference ISA delta p ＝ISAΔ f 。
Preferably, in step 1, the temperature deviation forecast value ISA Δ on the multifunction control display unit MCDU f The pilot directly inputs the information or presses a weather information request button on the multifunctional control display unit to request the operation control center of the airline company to send the information to the flight management system through a data link.
The invention has the beneficial effects that:
the invention provides a method for predicting temperature by shifting, which fully utilizes the actual measurement temperature information of the current position of an airplane and the forecast temperature information of a predicted point, and calculates the temperature predicted value of the predicted point by using limited resources such as the relative geometric relationship between the current position of the airplane and the predicted point. The method can effectively improve the performance optimization calculation, arrival time forecast, actual fuel consumption and flight time estimation capacity of the flight management system. The method can effectively support four-dimensional track operation, flight interval management, altitude layer change, conflict management and the like, is easy to realize engineering, and has important practical application significance for the operation of the aircraft in the civil field, in particular to the operation of supporting the required arrival time.
Drawings
Fig. 1 shows the predicted point in the climb phase.
Fig. 2 shows the predicted point in the cruise phase.
Fig. 3 is the predicted point at descent phase and the aircraft after TOD.
Fig. 4 is the predicted point at descent phase and the aircraft before TOD.
Fig. 5 is an example of the predicted point at the descent phase and the aircraft before TOD.
FIG. 6 is a flow chart of a method for predicting temperature drift according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
The invention is described in further detail below with reference to the drawings and examples.
The embodiment provides a method for predicting temperature deviation for four-dimensional track operation, flight interval management, altitude layer change and conflict management to demand for temperature prediction accuracy. The method fully utilizes the actual measurement temperature information of the current position of the airplane and the forecast temperature information of the forecast point, and calculates the temperature forecast value of the forecast point by using limited resources such as the relative geometric relationship between the current position of the airplane and the forecast point. The method specifically comprises the following steps:
step 1, acquiring a temperature deviation measurement value ISA delta of the current position of an airplane, which is measured in real time by an airborne air data computer m Obtaining a temperature deviation forecast value ISA delta of a forecast point on a multifunctional control display unit f . Multi-function control display unit MCDUIs a temperature deviation forecast value ISA delta of (a) f The method can be directly input by a pilot, or can be used for requesting an airline operation control center to send to a flight management system through a data link by pressing a weather information request button on an MCDU.
Step 2, after confirming whether the predicted point is in the climbing stage, the cruising stage or the descending stage and the relative geometrical relation between the current position of the airplane and the predicted point, combining the ISA delta obtained in the step 1 m And ISA delta f Is used for calculating a temperature deviation predicted value ISA delta of a predicted point p 。
As shown in fig. 1, if the predicted point is in the climbing stage, the predicted point temperature deviation value ISA Δ is predicted p ＝ISAΔ f 。
As shown in fig. 2, if the predicted point is in the cruising stage, the distance d between the current position of the aircraft and the predicted point of the vertical section is calculated Distance difference Setting a distance difference threshold d Distance difference threshold ；
(a) If d Distance difference ≤d Distance difference threshold ISA delta is calculated using the following formula p ：
ISAΔ p ＝{[(d Distance difference threshold -d Distance difference )*ISAΔ m ]+d Distance difference *ISAΔ f }/d Distance difference threshold 。
(b) If d Distance difference ＞d Distance difference threshold ISA delta p ＝ISAΔ f 。
If the predicted point is in the descending stage, judging the relative position of the aircraft and the descending vertex TOD, and calculating the height difference h between the current position of the aircraft and the predicted point of the vertical section Height difference Setting a height difference threshold h Threshold value of altitude difference The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Calculating the distance d between the current position of the aircraft and the predicted point of the vertical section Distance difference Setting a distance difference threshold d Distance difference threshold ：
(a) If the current position of the aircraft is after TOD, if h, as shown in FIG. 3 Height difference ≤h Threshold value of altitude difference ISA delta p ＝{[(h Threshold value of altitude difference -h Height difference )*ISAΔ m ]+h Height difference *ISAΔ f }/h Threshold value of altitude difference ；
If h Height difference ＞h Threshold value of altitude difference ISA delta p ＝ISAΔ f
(b) As shown in fig. 4, if the current position of the aircraft is before TOD, a virtual aircraft is assumed to be above the cruising altitude, and the virtual aircraft is assumed to be different from the cruising altitude by h Virtual height difference Using equation (d) Distance difference threshold -d Distance difference )/d Distance difference threshold ＝(h Threshold value of altitude difference -h Virtual height difference )/h Threshold value of altitude difference Calculate h Virtual height difference 。
If h Height difference ≤h Threshold value of altitude difference -h Virtual height difference Then:
ISAΔ p ＝(h threshold value of altitude difference -(h Height difference +h Virtual height difference ))/h Threshold value of altitude difference *ISAΔ m +(h Height difference +h Virtual height difference )/h Threshold value of altitude difference *ISAΔ f ；
If h Height difference ＞h Threshold value of altitude difference -h Virtual height difference ISA delta p ＝ISAΔ f 。
By way of example, as shown in FIG. 5, the aircraft is at 35000ft, at cruise, 100NM from TOD point, and the temperature offset measurement at the aircraft location is ISA delta m Predicted value of the predicted point temperature deviation is ISA delta at the temperature of minus 8 DEG C f = +6℃. Assume a set distance difference threshold d Distance difference threshold A height difference threshold h of 400NM Threshold value of altitude difference 10000ft. First using (d) Distance difference threshold -d Distance difference )/d Distance difference threshold ＝(h Threshold value of altitude difference -h Virtual height difference )/h Threshold value of altitude difference Calculate h Virtual height difference I.e. (400 NM-100 NM)/400 NM= (10000 ft-h) Virtual height difference ) 10000ft, h Virtual height difference =2500 ft. At this time h Height difference ≤h Threshold value of altitude difference -h Virtual height difference I.e., 3000 ft.ltoreq.10000 ft-2500ft, the following formula is used to calculate the predictionPredicted value ISA delta of point temperature offset p ＝(h Threshold value of altitude difference -(h Height difference +h Virtual height difference ))/h Threshold value of altitude difference *ISAΔ m +(h Height difference +h Virtual height difference )/h Threshold value of altitude difference *ISAΔ f ＝(10000-(3000+2500))/10000*(-8℃)+(3000+2500)/10000*(+6℃)＝-0.3℃。
It will be understood that equivalents and modifications will occur to those skilled in the art in light of the present invention and their spirit, and all such modifications and substitutions are intended to be included within the scope of the present invention as defined in the following claims.
Claims (2)
1. A method of predicting temperature excursions, comprising the steps of:
step 1, acquiring a temperature deviation measurement value ISA delta of the current position of an airplane, which is measured in real time by an airborne air data computer m Obtaining a temperature deviation forecast value ISA delta of a forecast point on a multifunctional control display unit f ；
Step 2, after confirming whether the predicted point is in the climbing stage, the cruising stage or the descending stage and the relative geometrical relation between the current position of the airplane and the predicted point, combining the ISA delta obtained in the step 1 m And ISA delta f Calculating a temperature deviation predicted value ISA delta of a predicted point p ：
If the predicted point is in the climbing stage, predicting the temperature deviation predicted value ISA delta of the predicted point p ＝ISAΔ f ；
If the predicted point is in the cruising stage, calculating the distance d between the current position of the aircraft and the predicted point of the vertical section Distance difference Setting a distance difference threshold d Distance difference threshold ；
(a) If d Distance difference ≤d Distance difference threshold ISA delta is calculated using the following formula p ：
ISAΔ p ＝{[(d Distance difference threshold -d Distance difference )*ISAΔ m ]+d Distance difference *ISAΔf}/d Distance difference threshold
(b) If d Distance difference >d Distance difference threshold ISA delta p ＝ISAΔ f ；
If the predicted point is in the descending stage, calculating the height difference h between the current position of the aircraft and the predicted point of the vertical section Height difference Setting a height difference threshold h Threshold value of altitude difference The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Calculating the distance d between the current position of the aircraft and the predicted point of the vertical section Distance difference Setting a distance difference threshold d Distance difference threshold ：
(a) If the current position of the aircraft is after the descent vertex, if h Height difference ≤h Threshold value of altitude difference ISA delta p ＝{[(h Threshold value of altitude difference -h Height difference )*ISAΔ m ]+h Height difference *ISAΔ f }/h Threshold value of altitude difference ；
If h Height difference >h Threshold value of altitude difference ISA delta p ＝ISAΔ f ；
(b) If the current position of the aircraft is in front of the descending vertex, a virtual aircraft is assumed to be above the cruising altitude, and the virtual aircraft is assumed to be different from the cruising altitude by h Virtual height difference Using equation (d) Distance difference threshold -d Distance difference )/d Distance difference threshold ＝(h Threshold value of altitude difference -h Virtual height difference )/h Threshold value of altitude difference Calculate h Virtual height difference ；
If h Height difference ≤h Threshold value of altitude difference -h Virtual height difference Then:
ISAΔ p ＝(h threshold value of altitude difference -(h Height difference +h Virtual height difference ))/h Threshold value of altitude difference *ISAΔ m +(h Height difference +h Virtual height difference )/h Threshold value of altitude difference *ISAΔ f ；
If h Height difference >h Threshold value of altitude difference -h Virtual height difference ISA delta p ＝ISAΔ f 。
2. The method of claim 1, wherein in step 1, the multi-function control is performedTemperature deviation forecast value ISA delta on display unit f The pilot directly inputs the information or presses a weather information request button on the multifunctional control display unit to request the operation control center of the airline company to send the information to the flight management system through a data link.
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