CN113793027A - Method, device, equipment and medium for determining reliability of energy storage power distribution system - Google Patents

Method, device, equipment and medium for determining reliability of energy storage power distribution system Download PDF

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CN113793027A
CN113793027A CN202111073130.4A CN202111073130A CN113793027A CN 113793027 A CN113793027 A CN 113793027A CN 202111073130 A CN202111073130 A CN 202111073130A CN 113793027 A CN113793027 A CN 113793027A
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load point
energy storage
system load
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李灿根
刘伟斌
刘文豪
黎光华
叶柱坚
黄学劲
李家淇
刘宗扬
袁灿培
张育宾
肖莉敏
王凯亮
李俊辉
吴新雄
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Guangdong Power Grid Co Ltd
Dongguan Power Supply Bureau of Guangdong Power Grid Co Ltd
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Dongguan Power Supply Bureau of Guangdong Power Grid Co Ltd
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Abstract

The embodiment of the invention discloses a method, a device, equipment and a medium for determining the reliability of an energy storage and distribution system. The method comprises the steps of determining the estimated outage duration of system load points relative to a main power supply according to the estimated outage duration, the load point information of the system load points and the capacity of energy storage equipment, determining the power failure duration of the load points of the system load points, and further determining the reliability index of the target energy storage power distribution system according to the power failure duration of the load points of the system load points so as to quantify the reliability of the power distribution system containing the energy storage equipment, thereby determining the reliability of the power distribution system, and facilitating analysis and improving the reliability of the power distribution system.

Description

Method, device, equipment and medium for determining reliability of energy storage power distribution system
Technical Field
The embodiment of the invention relates to the technical field of power distribution networks, in particular to a method, a device, equipment and a medium for determining the reliability of an energy storage and distribution system.
Background
The distribution network is located the electric wire netting end, is close to the electric energy transmission terminal point, and the component is many, the structure is complicated, directly influences user's power supply situation. At present, the reliability level of the power distribution network is improved mainly by making a power distribution network construction standard, increasing the power grid construction investment, optimizing a reliability algorithm model, developing reliability analysis software and other technical means. The annual average power failure time of developed cities in the world is less than 1 hour. The reliability level of the Singapore is in the leading position in the world, and the annual average power failure time of a user is less than 1 minute in 2011; the average power failure time of Munich users is about 15 minutes, and the annual average power failure time of new york city users in 2017 is within 1 hour. The annual average power failure time of urban areas in 2015-2019 years in China is 4.08-5.20 hours per household, the difference between the annual average power failure time of urban areas and the reliability level of urban areas in developed countries and areas is large, the annual average power failure of some cities such as the Zhuhai, the Zhongshan and the Xiamen is within 1 hour, the world leading level is achieved, and therefore the reliability level difference is large, and the potential for improvement is still large.
Therefore, in order to improve the reliability of the power distribution network, it is necessary to quantify the reliability, and a method for determining the reliability of the system is proposed.
Disclosure of Invention
The embodiment of the invention provides a method, a device, equipment and a medium for determining the reliability of an energy storage power distribution system, which are used for quantifying the reliability of the power distribution system containing energy storage equipment and realizing the determination of the reliability of the power distribution system.
In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for determining reliability of an energy storage power distribution system, where the method includes:
determining each system load point of a target energy storage power distribution system, wherein the target energy storage power distribution system comprises the system load points, a main power supply and energy storage equipment;
determining a projected outage duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply;
determining the power failure duration of the load point of the system load point based on the estimated outage duration, the load point information of the system load point and the capacity of the energy storage equipment;
and determining the reliability index of the target energy storage and distribution system based on the power failure time of the load point of each system load point.
In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention further provides an apparatus for determining reliability of an energy storage power distribution system, where the apparatus includes:
the system comprises a load point determining module, a load point determining module and a load point determining module, wherein the load point determining module is used for determining each system load point of a target energy storage power distribution system, and the target energy storage power distribution system comprises the system load points, a main power supply and energy storage equipment;
the outage duration determining module is used for determining the estimated outage duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply;
the power failure duration determining module is used for determining the power failure duration of the load point of the system load point based on the estimated outage duration, the load point information of the system load point and the capacity of the energy storage equipment;
and the reliability determining module is used for determining the reliability index of the target energy storage power distribution system based on the power failure time of the load point of each system load point.
In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present invention further provides an electronic device, where the electronic device includes:
one or more processors;
a storage device for storing one or more programs,
when executed by the one or more processors, cause the one or more processors to implement a method for determining reliability of an energy storage and distribution system as provided by any of the embodiments of the invention.
In a fourth aspect, embodiments of the present invention further provide a computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, where the computer program, when executed by a processor, implements the method for determining reliability of an energy storage and distribution system according to any of the embodiments of the present invention.
The embodiment of the invention has the following advantages or beneficial effects:
the method comprises the steps of determining the estimated outage duration of system load points relative to a main power supply according to the estimated outage duration, the load point information of the system load points and the capacity of energy storage equipment, determining the power failure duration of the load points of the system load points, and further determining the reliability index of the target energy storage power distribution system according to the power failure duration of the load points of the system load points, so that the reliability of the power distribution system with the energy storage equipment is quantized, the reliability of the power distribution system is determined, and the reliability of the power distribution system is convenient to analyze and improve.
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In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the exemplary embodiments of the present invention, a brief description is given below of the drawings used in describing the embodiments. It should be clear that the described figures are only views of some of the embodiments of the invention to be described, not all, and that for a person skilled in the art, other figures can be derived from these figures without inventive effort.
Fig. 1 is a schematic flowchart of a method for determining reliability of an energy storage and distribution system according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2A is a schematic flowchart of a method for determining reliability of an energy storage and distribution system according to a second embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2B is a schematic flowchart of a method for determining a power outage duration of a load point according to a second embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2C is a simulation curve of the system reliability of the energy storage device with different capacities according to the second embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of a reliability determination apparatus of an energy storage distribution system according to a third embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 4 is a schematic structural diagram of an electronic device according to a fourth embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The present invention will be described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples. It is to be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the invention and are not limiting of the invention. It should be further noted that, for the convenience of description, only some of the structures related to the present invention are shown in the drawings, not all of the structures.
Example one
Fig. 1 is a schematic flowchart of a method for determining reliability of an energy storage power distribution system according to an embodiment of the present invention, where this embodiment is applicable to a case of determining a reliability index of a power distribution system including an energy storage device, and the method may be executed by a reliability determining apparatus of an energy storage power distribution system, where the apparatus may be implemented by hardware and/or software, and the method specifically includes the following steps:
and S110, determining each system load point of the target energy storage power distribution system, wherein the target energy storage power distribution system comprises the system load points, a main power supply and energy storage equipment.
Wherein the target energy storage power distribution system may be a power distribution system for which a reliability index needs to be predicted. In this embodiment, the target energy storage power distribution system includes a main power supply, an energy storage device, and a plurality of system load points.
Specifically, the system load point may be a point in the target energy storage and distribution system, where a user is accessed to supply power to the user; the main power supply may be a default power supply of the target energy storage power distribution system; the energy storage device may be an alternative power supply source for the target energy storage power distribution system. Illustratively, the energy storage device may be a battery energy storage system.
In this embodiment, each system load point is supplied with power by the main power supply under a default condition, and when a breaker fault, a switch fault and the like occur at the system load point, power can be supplied by the energy storage device. It should be noted that the system load points of the target energy storage distribution system include the system load points that access the energy storage devices and the system load points that do not access the energy storage devices. Specifically, in this embodiment, each system load point of the target energy storage power distribution system is determined first, and then the power failure duration of the load point is predicted for each system load point.
And S120, determining the estimated outage duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply.
When the target energy storage and distribution system does not have access to a transfer power line, the estimated outage duration can be the repair duration when a system load point has a fault; when a target energy storage and distribution system has access to a switching power supply line, and the switching power supply line is successfully accessed, the estimated outage duration can be the switching supply duration of a system load point; when the target energy storage and distribution system has access to a switching power supply line and the access of the switching power supply line fails, the estimated outage duration can be the repair duration of the system load point. For example, the repair duration of the system load point may be an expected duration of repairing the fault of the system load point, for example, the repair duration may be a breaker repair duration, or the repair duration may be a switch repair duration, or the like, or the repair duration may be a sum of the breaker repair duration and the switch repair duration.
Optionally, the determining a predicted outage duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply includes: and determining the estimated outage duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply based on the fault rate of the system load point relative to the main power supply, the repair duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply, the transfer success rate of the system load point and the transfer duration of the system load point.
In this optional embodiment, the target energy storage and distribution system has a switching power supply line access, and each system load point can access the energy storage device of the target energy storage and distribution system by accessing the switching power supply line. Considering that the situations of successful access and failed access exist when each system load point is actually accessed to the power switching circuit, and whether the system load point can be successfully accessed to the power switching circuit or not can not be accurately known at the stage of predicting the estimated outage duration of the system load point. Therefore, the estimated outage duration of the system load point can be determined through the fault rate of the system load point, the transfer success rate of the system load point, the repair duration of the system load point, the transfer success rate of the system load point and the transfer duration of the system load point.
The transfer success rate of the system load point can be an average transfer success rate obtained by historical data statistics; or, the historical data of each system load point close to the load capacity of the system load point may be counted to obtain the transfer success rate corresponding to the load capacity. Of course, the failure rate of the system load point can be determined according to the success rate of the system load point. The time length of the system load point can be the time length required by the system load point to access the power switching circuit, the time length of the system load point can be the average access time length obtained by historical data statistics, and the time length of the system load point can also be the access time length corresponding to the load capacity obtained by historical data statistics.
Specifically, considering that the estimated outage duration of the system load point may be the repair duration of the system load point when the transfer fails, and the estimated outage duration of the system load point may be the transfer duration of the system load point when the transfer succeeds, therefore, the transfer failure rate of the system load point may be multiplied by the repair duration of the system load point, the transfer success rate of the system load point may be multiplied by the transfer duration of the system load point, and the results of the two multiplications are summed to be used as the estimated outage duration of the system load point. Through the optional mode, the predicted outage duration of the load point relative to the main power supply can be accurately predicted by combining the actual condition of load point transfer, the accuracy of the predicted outage duration is improved, and further, the accuracy of the reliability index determined by the embodiment is improved.
Further, in a specific embodiment, the estimated outage duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply is determined based on a failure rate of the system load point relative to the main power supply, a repair duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply, a transfer success rate of the system load point, and a transfer duration of the system load point, and satisfies the following formula:
tstop(n)＝(1-rtrans)rfail(n)trepair(n)+rtransrfail(n)ttrans
wherein, tstop(n) is the estimated outage duration of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply, rtransTo convert the success rate, rfail(n) is the failure rate of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply, trepair(n) is the repair duration of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply, ttransFor the turn-on duration.
Through the formula, the estimated outage duration of each system load point in the target energy storage and distribution system can be calculated, so that the estimated outage duration of each system load point can be determined. Specifically, in the above formula, 1 to rtransIndicates the failure rate of transshipment, (1-r)trans)rfail(n)trepair(n) failure rate of transfer and failure rate of system load pointThe product of the repair time length when the fault occurs represents the probability outage time length corresponding to the failure of the supply and delivery; r istransrfail(n)ttransThe failure rate of the system load point is multiplied by the transfer time length, and the probability outage time length corresponding to the transfer success is represented. And adding the probability outage duration corresponding to the failure of the transshipment to the probability outage duration corresponding to the success of the transshipment to obtain the estimated outage duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply under the two conditions of the failure of the transshipment and the success of the transshipment.
By the formula, the conditions of successful transfer and failure transfer of the load point can be combined, the estimated outage duration of the load point relative to the main power supply can be accurately predicted, the accuracy of the estimated outage duration is improved, and further, the accuracy of the reliability index determined by the embodiment is improved.
In this embodiment, before determining the estimated outage duration of each system load point relative to the main power supply, the restoration duration of each system load point relative to the main power supply may be determined. That is, the method for determining the reliability of the energy storage and distribution system provided by this embodiment further includes: determining the repair duration of a system load point relative to a main power supply; the method determines the repair duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply, and satisfies the following formula,
Figure BDA0003261178670000081
wherein, trepair(n) is the repair duration of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply, L (n) is the cable length of the nth system load point, rLCable failure rate, t, for system load pointsLFor cable restoration duration, ns(n) is the sum of the number of circuit breakers and the number of switches at the nth system load point, rsTo the failure rate of the circuit breaker and switch, tsFor the switch reset duration, rTFor failure rate of distribution transformer, tTFor the time of the transformer power restoration, rfailAnd (n) is the fault rate of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply. Exemplary embodiments of the inventionThe failure rate r of the system load point with respect to the main power supplyfail(n)＝L(n)rL+ns(n)rs+rT。
Specifically, the fault rates of the circuit breaker and the switch in the power distribution system are close to each other by combining the engineering actual data of the power distribution network, so that the faults of the circuit breaker and the switch can be analyzed in a unified manner, and r is usedsExpressed as the failure rate of the circuit breaker and switch, nsAnd (n) is the sum of the number of the circuit breakers and the number of the switches of the nth system load point. In the above formula, the unit of the cable length L (n) may be kilometers (km), and the cable failure rate rLThe unit of (A) can be sub/kilometer per year (sub/km per year), the failure rate r of the circuit breaker and the switchsThe unit of (A) can be sub/hundred per year, failure rate r of distribution transformerTThe unit of (1) can be sub/hundred units/year, and the failure rate r of a system load pointfailThe unit of (n) can be time/hundred years, and the repair time length t of the system load pointrepairThe unit of (n) can be hour/time, cable power restoration time tLTime t for switch power recoverysTime t for power restoration of transformerTThe unit of (c) may be hour/time.
The restoration time length of each system load point in the target energy storage and distribution system can be calculated through the formula, so that the restoration time length of each system load point is determined, and the estimated outage time length of each system load point is further determined based on the restoration time length of each system load point. In the above formula, L (n) rLtLThe product of the cable length, the cable fault rate and the cable complex power time represents the probability repair time corresponding to the cable fault; n iss(n)rstsThe probability repair duration corresponding to the circuit breaker and the switch fault is represented by the product of the sum of the number of the circuit breakers and the number of the switches, the fault rate of the circuit breakers and the switches and the switch complex power duration; r isTtTThe product of the failure rate of the distribution transformer and the time of the power restoration of the transformer represents the time of the probability restoration corresponding to the fault of the transformer. Specifically, the probability repair time corresponding to the cable fault, the probability repair time corresponding to the breaker and switch faults, and the probability repair time corresponding to the transformer fault are synchronizedAnd adding, and dividing the added result by the fault rate of the main power supply to obtain the repair duration of the system load point.
Through the formula, the actual condition of the faults of cables, switches or transformers of the load points can be combined, the repair time of the load points relative to the main power supply can be accurately predicted, the accuracy of the repair time is improved, and further, the accuracy of the reliability index determined by the embodiment is improved.
It should be noted that, in consideration of the system load points with the same load capacity, the same cable length, and the same number of switches or transformers existing in the target energy storage and distribution system, in this embodiment, the repair duration and/or the load point outage duration of other system load points with the same load capacity, the same cable length, and the same number of switches or transformers are determined by calculating the repair duration and/or the load point outage duration of one system load point, so as to reduce the calculated amount of the repair duration and/or the load point outage duration of each system load point, and improve the efficiency of determining the reliability index of the energy storage and distribution system.
And S130, determining the power failure time of the load point of the system load point based on the estimated outage time, the load point information of the system load point and the capacity of the energy storage equipment.
The load point information of the system load point may include whether the system load point is accessible to the energy storage device, and a power outage loss capacity of the system load point. In one embodiment, the determining the power outage duration of the load point of the system load point based on the estimated outage duration, the load point information of the system load point, and the capacity of the energy storage device may be: judging whether the system load point can be accessed to the energy storage equipment or not according to the load point information of the system load point and the capacity of the energy storage equipment; when the system load point can not be accessed with the energy storage device, the estimated outage duration is used as the power failure time of the load point, when the system load point can be accessed with the energy storage device, whether the capacity of the energy storage device can cover the power failure missing electric quantity of the system load point is further judged, if yes, the power failure duration of the load point is zero, and if not, the estimated outage duration is used as the power failure duration of the load point.
In another embodiment, considering the situations of successful switching and failed switching when switching to the energy storage device for power supply, when the capacity of the energy storage device can cover the power failure missing electric quantity, if the target energy storage power distribution system is successfully switched to the energy storage device for power supply, the target energy storage power distribution system does not stop power supply, when the target energy storage power distribution system is failed to switch to the energy storage device for power supply, the power failure time of the load point of the system needs to be considered, when the capacity of the energy storage device cannot cover the power failure missing electric quantity, even if the power supply of the energy storage device is successfully switched to the energy storage device for power supply, the power failure of the load point of the system still can be caused, but whether the energy storage device is successfully switched in can influence the power failure time of the target energy storage power distribution system, therefore, optionally, the load point information includes whether the system load point can be switched in the energy storage device and the power failure missing electric quantity of the system load point, based on the estimated power failure time, the power failure time, The method comprises the following steps of determining the power failure duration of the load point of the system load point according to the load point information of the system load point and the capacity of the energy storage equipment, wherein the power failure duration comprises at least one of the following steps:
if the system load point can not be accessed to the energy storage equipment, determining the estimated outage duration as the power failure duration of the load point of the system load point;
if the system load point can be accessed to the energy storage equipment, and the capacity of the energy storage equipment is greater than or equal to the power failure missing electric quantity of the system load point, determining the power failure time of the load point of the system load point based on the switching success rate of the energy storage equipment and the estimated outage time;
if the system load point can be connected with the energy storage equipment, and the capacity of the energy storage equipment is smaller than the power failure missing electric quantity of the system load point, the power failure time of the system load point is determined based on the switching success rate of the energy storage equipment, the power failure time of the energy storage equipment switching failure and the power failure time of the energy storage equipment switching success.
Wherein, the switching success rate of the energy storage device can be represented by the reliability of the energy storage device. Specifically, when the energy storage device can be connected to a system load point and the capacity of the energy storage device is greater than or equal to the power failure and power loss amount of the system load point, the switching failure rate of the energy storage device is determined based on the switching success rate of the energy storage device, the switching failure rate of the energy storage device is multiplied by the estimated outage duration, and the power failure duration of the load point is obtained based on the multiplied result. For example, based on the switching success rate of the energy storage device and the estimated outage duration, the outage duration of the load point of the system load point is determined, and the following formula is satisfied:
tlp(n)＝(1-rESS)tstop(n)
in the formula, tlp(n) the power failure time of the load point of the nth system load point, rESSFor the success rate of switching of the energy storage device, tstop(n) is the predicted outage duration for the nth system load point.
Specifically, when the energy storage device is not accessible to the system load point and the capacity of the energy storage device is smaller than the power failure missing electric quantity of the system load point, the switching failure rate of the energy storage device may be multiplied by the power failure duration of the switching failure of the energy storage device, the switching success rate of the energy storage device may be multiplied by the power failure duration of the switching success of the energy storage device, and the sum of the results of the two multiplications is used as the power failure duration of the load point of the system load point. For example, based on the switching success rate of the energy storage device, the power failure time of the energy storage device switching failure and the power failure time of the energy storage device switching success, the power failure time of the load point of the system load point is determined, and the following formula is satisfied:
tlp(n)＝(1-rESS)tfail(n)+rESStsuc(n)
in the formula, tlp(n) the power failure time of the load point of the nth system load point, rESsFor the success rate of switching of the energy storage device, tfail(n) is the power failure time of energy storage equipment switching failure corresponding to the nth system load point, tsucAnd (n) is the power failure time length of successful switching of the energy storage equipment corresponding to the nth system load point.
In the optional embodiment, under the actual condition of combining the capacity of the energy storage device and the power failure and power loss electric quantity of the system load point, the power failure time length of the load point of the system load point is accurately determined, the power failure time length accuracy of the load point is improved, and further, the accuracy of the system reliability index is improved.
It should be noted that the power outage duration of the energy storage device switching failure may be equal to the estimated outage duration of the system load point, and the power outage duration of the energy storage device switching success may be determined based on the repair duration of the system load point, the switching success rate, and the failure rate of the system load point.
For example, the method for determining the reliability of the energy storage power distribution system provided by this embodiment further includes: calculating the power failure time length of the energy storage equipment which is successfully switched based on the following formula,
Figure BDA0003261178670000121
wherein, tsuc(n) the power failure duration r of successful energy storage equipment switching corresponding to the nth system load pointfail(n) the failure rate of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply, rtransFor handover success rate, trepair(n) is the repair duration of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply, EBAnd (n) is the energy storage dischargeable quantity of the nth system load point, and P is the load point power.
In the above formula, 1-rtransThe rate of the failure of the transfer is indicated,
Figure BDA0003261178670000122
the discharge time period of the energy storage dischargeable amount can be represented,
Figure BDA0003261178670000123
and the difference between the restoration time of the system load point and the discharge time of the energy storage dischargeable quantity is represented, and the power failure time of successful switching of the energy storage equipment can be obtained by multiplying the transfer failure rate, the fault rate of the system load point, the restoration time of the system load point and the discharge time of the energy storage dischargeable quantity.
And S140, determining the reliability index of the target energy storage and distribution system based on the power failure time of the load point of each system load point.
The reliability index may include a system power-off time expected value. The expected value of the system power-off time can be based on the average value of the power-off time of the load points of each system load point.
For example, the expected value of the system outage time of the target energy storage power distribution system is determined based on the outage duration of the load point of each system load point, and the following formula is satisfied:
Figure BDA0003261178670000131
wherein N isloadNumber of system load points, t, for a target energy storage distribution systemlp(n) is the power failure time of the load point of the nth system load point,
Figure BDA0003261178670000132
and the expected value of the system power-off time is obtained. The unit of expected value of system outage time may be hours/time.
Optionally, the reliability index includes a system outage time expected value and a system reliability value, and the determining the reliability index of the target energy storage and distribution system based on the outage duration of the load point of each system load point includes: determining a system outage time expected value of a target energy storage power distribution system based on the load point outage duration of each system load point; and determining a system reliability value of the target energy storage power distribution system based on the expected value of the system outage time.
For example, determining the system reliability value of the target energy storage power distribution system based on the expected system outage time may satisfy the following equation:
Figure BDA0003261178670000133
wherein,
Figure BDA0003261178670000134
for system outage time desired value, R0To provide a system reliability value, 8760 represents the number of hours encompassed in a year.
Optionally, the reliability index may further include a system outage frequency expectation, which may be determined based on the failure rate of each system load point, for example:
Figure BDA0003261178670000135
wherein,
Figure BDA0003261178670000136
for the expectation of system power-off frequency, the unit can be sub/hundred station-year, NloadNumber of system load points, r, for a target energy storage distribution systemfail(n) is the failure rate of the nth system load point.
According to the technical scheme of the embodiment, the estimated outage duration of the system load points relative to the main power supply is determined according to the system load points in the target energy storage power distribution system, the power failure duration of the load points of the system load points is determined according to the estimated outage duration, the load point information of the system load points and the capacity of the energy storage equipment, and then the reliability index of the target energy storage power distribution system is determined according to the power failure duration of the load points of the system load points, so that the reliability of the power distribution system with the energy storage equipment is quantized, the reliability of the power distribution system is determined, and the reliability of the power distribution system is convenient to analyze and improve.
Example two
Fig. 2A is a schematic flowchart of a method for determining reliability of an energy storage distribution system according to a second embodiment of the present invention, wherein explanations of terms that are the same as or correspond to the above embodiments are not repeated herein. Referring to fig. 2A, the method for determining the reliability of the energy storage power distribution system provided in this embodiment includes the following steps:
s210, determining each system load point of the target energy storage and distribution system, and determining the fault rate of each system load point relative to the main power supply.
Specifically, the following formula can be adopted to calculate the failure rate of each system load point relative to the main power supply:
rfail(n)＝L(n)rL+ns(n)rs+rT (1)
and S220, determining the repair duration of each system load point relative to the main power supply based on the fault rate of each system load point.
Specifically, the following formula can be adopted to calculate the repair time of each system load point relative to the main power supply:
Figure BDA0003261178670000141
and S230, determining the estimated outage duration of each system load point relative to the main power supply based on the repair duration of each system load point.
Specifically, the predicted outage duration of each system load point relative to the main power supply may be calculated by using the following formula:
tstop(n)＝(1-rtrans)rfail(n)trepair(n)+rtransrfail(n)ttrans (3)
s240, judging whether the system load point can be connected with the energy storage equipment, if not, determining the estimated outage duration as the power failure duration of the load point of the system load point, and if so, judging whether the capacity of the energy storage equipment can cover the power failure missing electric quantity of the system load point.
S250, if the capacity of the energy storage equipment can cover the power failure missing electric quantity of the system load point, determining the power failure time of the load point based on the estimated outage time of the system load point; and if the capacity of the energy storage equipment cannot cover the power failure and power loss amount of the system load point, determining the power failure time of the load point of the system load point based on the power failure time of the energy storage equipment switching failure, the power failure time of the energy storage equipment switching success and the switching success rate of the energy storage equipment.
Specifically, the power failure duration of the load point of the system load point can be calculated by the following formula:
Figure BDA0003261178670000151
wherein, E (n)For the power failure missing capacity of the nth system load point, EENSAnd (n) is the capacity of the energy storage device, or the dischargeable amount of the energy storage device at the nth system load point.
Illustratively, the power-off duration t of the energy storage device switching failurefail(n) power failure duration t for successful switching of energy storage equipmentsuc(n) can be calculated based on the following formula:
Figure BDA0003261178670000152
specifically, with reference to the above formula, this embodiment further provides a method for determining the power outage duration of the load point, and as shown in fig. 2B, a flow diagram of the method for determining the power outage duration of the load point is shown. As shown in fig. 2B, the method includes the steps of:
step 1, judging whether a system load point is connected to an energy storage system, if so, executing step 2, otherwise, calculating the predicted outage duration of the load point based on a formula (3), determining the estimated outage duration as the power failure duration of the load point, and skipping to step 8;
step 2, judging whether the energy storage equipment can cover the power shortage amount, if so, executing step 3, and if not, executing step 4;
step 3, judging whether the energy storage equipment is successfully accessed, if not, executing step 7, and if so, executing step 8;
step 4, judging whether the energy storage equipment is successfully accessed, if not, executing step 5, and if so, executing step 6;
step 5, calculating the power failure time t when the energy storage equipment fails to be switched based on the formula (5)fail(n)；
Step 6, calculating the power failure time t when the energy storage equipment is successfully switched based on the formula (5)suc(n)；
Step 7, calculating the power failure duration of the load point based on the formula (4);
step 8, transferring to a next system load point n which is n + 1;
step 9, judging whether a termination condition n is met>NloadIf it isIf not, returning to execute the step 1.
And S260, determining a system power-off frequency expectation value, a system power-off time expectation value and a system reliability value of the target energy storage power distribution system according to the power-off duration of the load point of each system load point.
Specifically, the system outage frequency expectation may be calculated based on the following formula:
Figure BDA0003261178670000161
or calculating the expected system power-off time value based on the following formula:
Figure BDA0003261178670000162
and, the system reliability value may also be calculated based on the following formula:
Figure BDA0003261178670000163
in this embodiment, the reliability index of the target energy storage power distribution system can be obtained through the above calculation to adjust the reliability of the target energy storage power distribution system. Specifically, the target energy storage and power distribution system may be adjusted to improve the reliability index of the target energy storage and power distribution system, for example, the positions of the system load points of the target energy storage and power distribution system are adjusted to increase the system reliability value of the target energy storage and power distribution system; or adjusting the capacity of the energy storage equipment of the target energy storage and distribution system to increase the system reliability value of the target energy storage and distribution system. When the capacity of the energy storage device is adjusted, the system reliability value of the target energy storage power distribution system corresponding to the adjusted capacity of the energy storage device can be calculated for the adjusted capacity of the energy storage device each time.
The energy storage and power distribution system model is established by taking the power distribution system of an industrial park in the south as an example, the total number of the system is 1266 load points, and the system parameter values are as shown in Table 1Therein, referring to industry standards, assume that the power usage at each load point is a desired value of 1266 load point powers. Because partial load points are not provided with transfer points in the example, the upper limit of the energy storage capacity of the load points is set as E (i)max1The upper limit of the energy storage capacity of the other load points is set to be E (i)max2。
Table 1 parameters of energy storage distribution system
Figure BDA0003261178670000171
And assuming that all load points are accessed with energy storage devices, calculating the economic cost of full access of the energy storage devices with different capacities and the influence on the system reliability on Matlab. The simulation results are shown in table 2 and fig. 2C. Fig. 2C shows a simulation curve of the system reliability of the energy storage devices with different capacities, which shows that when the capacity of the energy storage device is between 50MWh and 60MWh, the system reliability is improved significantly; when the capacity exceeds 60MWh, the capacity of the energy storage equipment has no obvious effect on improving the reliability of the system.
TABLE 2 simulation results of system reliability for full access of energy storage devices of different capacities
Figure BDA0003261178670000181
According to the technical scheme, the power failure time of the load points of each system load point can be predicted, and then the reliability index of the target energy storage power distribution system is determined according to the power failure time of the load points of each system load point, so that the reliability of the power distribution system with the energy storage equipment is quantified, the reliability of the power distribution system is determined, and the analysis and the reliability of the power distribution system are facilitated and improved.
EXAMPLE III
Fig. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of a reliability determining apparatus for an energy storage power distribution system according to a third embodiment of the present invention, where this embodiment is applicable to a case of determining a reliability index of a power distribution system including an energy storage device, and the apparatus specifically includes: a load point determination module 310, an outage duration determination module 320, a power outage duration determination module 330, and a reliability determination module 340.
The load point determining module 310 is configured to determine system load points of a target energy storage and distribution system, where the target energy storage and distribution system includes the system load points, a main power supply, and energy storage devices;
an outage duration determination module 320 configured to determine an expected outage duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply;
a power outage duration determining module 330, configured to determine a power outage duration of a load point of the system load point based on the estimated outage duration, the load point information of the system load point, and the capacity of the energy storage device;
and the reliability determining module 340 is configured to determine a reliability index of the target energy storage and distribution system based on the power outage duration of the load point of each system load point.
Optionally, the outage duration determining module 320 includes a first determining unit, configured to determine an expected outage duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply based on a failure rate of the system load point relative to the main power supply, a repair duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply, a transfer success rate of the system load point, and a transfer duration of the system load point.
Optionally, the first determining unit is specifically configured to determine the expected outage duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply according to the following formula:
tstop(n)＝(1-rtrans)rfail(n)trepair(n)+rtransrfail(n)ttrans，
wherein, tstop(n) is the estimated outage duration of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply, rtransTo convert the success rate, rfail(n) is the failure rate of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply, trepair(n) is the nth system load point relative toThe repair duration, t, of the main power supplytransFor the turn-on duration.
Optionally, the reliability determining apparatus of the energy storage and distribution system further includes a repair duration determining module, where the repair duration determining module is configured to determine a repair duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply, and the repair duration determining module is specifically configured to determine the repair duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0003261178670000191
wherein, trepair(n) is the repair duration of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply, L (n) is the cable length of the nth system load point, rLCable failure rate, t, for the system load pointLFor cable restoration duration, ns(n) is the sum of the number of circuit breakers and the number of switches at the nth system load point, rsTo the failure rate of the circuit breaker and switch, tsFor the switch reset duration, rTFor failure rate of distribution transformer, tTFor the time of the transformer power restoration, rfail(n) is a failure rate of the nth system load point with respect to the main power supply.
Optionally, the load point information includes whether the system load point can access the energy storage device and a power outage lack electric quantity of the system load point, and the power outage duration determining module 330 is specifically configured to perform at least one of the following operations:
if the system load point can not be accessed to the energy storage equipment, determining the estimated outage duration as the power failure duration of the load point of the system load point;
if the system load point can be accessed to the energy storage equipment, and the capacity of the energy storage equipment is greater than or equal to the power failure missing electric quantity of the system load point, determining the power failure duration of the load point of the system load point based on the switching success rate of the energy storage equipment and the estimated outage duration;
and if the system load point can be accessed to the energy storage equipment, and the capacity of the energy storage equipment is smaller than the power failure missing electric quantity of the system load point, determining the power failure duration of the load point of the system load point based on the switching success rate of the energy storage equipment, the power failure duration of the energy storage equipment switching failure and the power failure duration of the energy storage equipment switching success.
Optionally, the reliability determining apparatus of the energy storage power distribution system further includes an energy storage duration determining module, where the energy storage duration determining module is configured to calculate a power outage duration for successful switching of the energy storage device based on the following formula,
Figure BDA0003261178670000201
wherein, tsuc(n) the power failure duration r of successful energy storage equipment switching corresponding to the nth system load pointfail(n) is the failure rate of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply, rtransFor handover success rate, trepair(n) is the repair duration of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply, EBAnd (n) is the energy storage dischargeable quantity of the nth system load point, and P is the load point power.
Optionally, the reliability index includes a system outage time expected value and a system reliability value, and the reliability determining module 340 is specifically configured to determine the system outage time expected value of the target energy storage power distribution system based on the outage duration of the load point of each system load point; and determining a system reliability value of the target energy storage power distribution system based on the expected system outage time value.
In this embodiment, each system load point of the target energy storage power distribution system is determined by the load point determining module, the estimated outage duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply is determined for each system load point in the target energy storage power distribution system by the outage duration determining module, the outage duration of the load point of the system load point is determined by the outage duration determining module according to the estimated outage duration, the load point information of the system load point and the capacity of the energy storage device, and then the reliability index of the target energy storage power distribution system is determined by the reliability determining module according to the outage duration of the load point of each system load point, so as to quantify the reliability of the power distribution system including the energy storage device, thereby determining the reliability of the power distribution system, and facilitating analysis and improving the reliability of the power distribution system.
The reliability determining device of the energy storage power distribution system provided by the embodiment of the invention can execute the reliability determining method of the energy storage power distribution system provided by any embodiment of the invention, and has corresponding functional modules and beneficial effects of the executing method.
It should be noted that, the units and modules included in the system are merely divided according to functional logic, but are not limited to the above division as long as the corresponding functions can be realized; in addition, specific names of the functional units are only for convenience of distinguishing from each other, and are not used for limiting the protection scope of the embodiment of the invention.
Example four
Fig. 4 is a schematic structural diagram of an electronic device according to a fourth embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 4 illustrates a block diagram of an exemplary electronic device 12 suitable for use in implementing embodiments of the present invention. The electronic device 12 shown in fig. 4 is only an example and should not bring any limitation to the function and the scope of use of the embodiment of the present invention. The device 12 is typically an electronic device that assumes the function of determining the reliability of the energy storage power distribution system.
As shown in FIG. 4, electronic device 12 is embodied in the form of a general purpose computing device. The components of electronic device 12 may include, but are not limited to: one or more processors or processing units 16, a memory 28, and a bus 18 that couples the various components (including the memory 28 and the processing unit 16).
Bus 18 represents one or more of any of several types of bus structures, including a memory bus or memory controller, a peripheral bus, an accelerated graphics port, and a processor or local bus using any of a variety of bus architectures. By way of example, such architectures include, but are not limited to, an Industry Standard Architecture (ISA) bus, a Micro Channel Architecture (MCA) bus, an enhanced ISA bus, a Video Electronics Standards Association (VESA) local bus, and a Peripheral Component Interconnect (PCI) bus.
Electronic device 12 typically includes a variety of computer-readable media. Such media may be any available media that is accessible by electronic device 12 and includes both volatile and nonvolatile media, removable and non-removable media.
Memory 28 may include computer device readable media in the form of volatile Memory, such as Random Access Memory (RAM) 30 and/or cache Memory 32. The electronic device 12 may further include other removable/non-removable, volatile/nonvolatile computer storage media. By way of example only, the storage device 34 may be used to read from and write to non-removable, nonvolatile magnetic media (not shown in FIG. 4, and commonly referred to as a "hard drive"). Although not shown in FIG. 4, a magnetic disk drive for reading from and writing to a removable, nonvolatile magnetic disk (e.g., a "floppy disk") and an optical disk drive for reading from or writing to a removable, nonvolatile optical disk (e.g., a Compact disk-Read Only Memory (CD-ROM), a Digital Video disk (DVD-ROM), or other optical media) may be provided. In these cases, each drive may be connected to bus 18 by one or more data media interfaces. Memory 28 may include at least one program product 40, with program product 40 having a set of program modules 42 configured to carry out the functions of embodiments of the invention. Program product 40 may be stored, for example, in memory 28, and such program modules 42 include, but are not limited to, one or more application programs, other program modules, and program data, each of which examples or some combination may comprise an implementation of a network environment. Program modules 42 generally carry out the functions and/or methodologies of the described embodiments of the invention.
Electronic device 12 may also communicate with one or more external devices 14 (e.g., keyboard, mouse, camera, etc., and display), one or more devices that enable a user to interact with electronic device 12, and/or any devices (e.g., network card, modem, etc.) that enable electronic device 12 to communicate with one or more other computing devices. Such communication may be through an input/output (I/O) interface 22. Also, the electronic device 12 may communicate with one or more networks (e.g., a Local Area Network (LAN), Wide Area Network (WAN), and/or a public Network such as the internet) via the Network adapter 20. As shown, the network adapter 20 communicates with other modules of the electronic device 12 via the bus 18. It should be understood that although not shown in the figures, other hardware and/or software modules may be used in conjunction with electronic device 12, including but not limited to: microcode, device drivers, Redundant processing units, external disk drive Arrays, disk array (RAID) devices, tape drives, and data backup storage devices, to name a few.
The processor 16 executes programs stored in the memory 28 to execute various functional applications and data processing, for example, to implement the reliability determination method of the energy storage and distribution system provided by the above embodiment of the present invention, including:
determining each system load point of a target energy storage power distribution system, wherein the target energy storage power distribution system comprises the system load points, a main power supply and energy storage equipment;
determining a projected outage duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply;
determining the power failure duration of the load point of the system load point based on the estimated outage duration, the load point information of the system load point and the capacity of the energy storage equipment;
and determining the reliability index of the target energy storage and distribution system based on the power failure time of the load point of each system load point.
Of course, those skilled in the art can understand that the processor may also implement the technical solution of the method for determining the reliability of the energy storage and distribution system provided in any embodiment of the present invention.
EXAMPLE five
An embodiment of the present invention further provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, where the computer program, when executed by a processor, implements the method for determining reliability of an energy storage and distribution system according to any embodiment of the present invention, where the method includes:
determining each system load point of a target energy storage power distribution system, wherein the target energy storage power distribution system comprises the system load points, a main power supply and energy storage equipment;
determining a projected outage duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply;
determining the power failure duration of the load point of the system load point based on the estimated outage duration, the load point information of the system load point and the capacity of the energy storage equipment;
and determining the reliability index of the target energy storage and distribution system based on the power failure time of the load point of each system load point.
Computer storage media for embodiments of the invention may employ any combination of one or more computer-readable media. The computer readable medium may be a computer readable signal medium or a computer readable storage medium. A computer readable storage medium may be, for example, but not limited to, an electronic, magnetic, optical, electromagnetic, infrared, or semiconductor system, apparatus, or device, or any combination of the foregoing. More specific examples (a non-exhaustive list) of the computer readable storage medium would include the following: an electrical connection having one or more wires, a portable computer diskette, a hard disk, a Random Access Memory (RAM), a read-only memory (ROM), an erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or flash memory), an optical fiber, a portable compact disc read-only memory (CD-ROM), an optical storage device, a magnetic storage device, or any suitable combination of the foregoing. In the context of this document, a computer readable storage medium may be any tangible medium that can contain, or store a program for use by or in connection with an instruction execution system, apparatus, or device.
A computer readable signal medium may include a propagated data signal with computer readable program code embodied therein, for example, in baseband or as part of a carrier wave. Such a propagated data signal may take many forms, including, but not limited to, electro-magnetic, optical, or any suitable combination thereof. A computer readable signal medium may also be any computer readable medium that is not a computer readable storage medium and that can communicate, propagate, or transport a program for use by or in connection with an instruction execution system, apparatus, or device.
Program code embodied on a computer readable medium may be transmitted using any appropriate medium, including but not limited to wireless, wireline, optical fiber cable, RF, etc., or any suitable combination of the foregoing.
Computer program code for carrying out operations for embodiments of the present invention may be written in any combination of one or more programming languages, including an object oriented programming language such as Java, Smalltalk, C + + or the like and conventional procedural programming languages, such as the "C" programming language or similar programming languages. The program code may execute entirely on the user's computer, partly on the user's computer, as a stand-alone software package, partly on the user's computer and partly on a remote computer or entirely on the remote computer or server. In the case of a remote computer, the remote computer may be connected to the user's computer through any type of network, including a Local Area Network (LAN) or a Wide Area Network (WAN), or the connection may be made to an external computer (for example, through the Internet using an Internet service provider).
It is to be noted that the foregoing is only illustrative of the preferred embodiments of the present invention and the technical principles employed. It will be understood by those skilled in the art that the present invention is not limited to the particular embodiments described herein, but is capable of various obvious changes, rearrangements and substitutions as will now become apparent to those skilled in the art without departing from the scope of the invention. Therefore, although the present invention has been described in greater detail by the above embodiments, the present invention is not limited to the above embodiments, and may include other equivalent embodiments without departing from the spirit of the present invention, and the scope of the present invention is determined by the scope of the appended claims.

Claims (10)

1. A method for reliability determination of an energy storage power distribution system, the method comprising:
determining each system load point of a target energy storage power distribution system, wherein the target energy storage power distribution system comprises the system load points, a main power supply and energy storage equipment;
determining a projected outage duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply;
determining the power failure duration of the load point of the system load point based on the estimated outage duration, the load point information of the system load point and the capacity of the energy storage equipment;
and determining the reliability index of the target energy storage and distribution system based on the power failure time of the load point of each system load point.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein determining the projected down time of the system load point relative to the main power supply comprises:
and determining the estimated outage duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply based on the fault rate of the system load point relative to the main power supply, the repair duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply, the power transfer success rate of the system load point and the power transfer duration of the system load point.
3. The method according to claim 2, wherein the determining the estimated outage duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply based on the failure rate of the system load point relative to the main power supply, the repair duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply, the power transfer success rate of the system load point, and the power transfer duration of the system load point satisfies the following formula:
tstop(n)＝(1-rtrans)rfail(n)trepair(n)+rtransrfail(n)ttrans，
wherein, tstop(n) is the estimated outage duration of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply, rtransTo convert the success rate, rfail(n) is the failure rate of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply, trepair(n) is the repair duration of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply, ttransFor the turn-on duration.
4. The method of claim 2, further comprising:
determining the repair duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply;
the method comprises the steps of determining the repair duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply, and satisfying the following formula,
Figure FDA0003261178660000021
wherein, trepair(n) is the repair duration of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply, L (n) is the cable length of the nth system load point, rLCable failure rate, t, for the system load pointLFor cable restoration duration, ns(n) is the sum of the number of circuit breakers and the number of switches at the nth system load point, rsTo the failure rate of the circuit breaker and switch, tsFor the switch reset duration, rTFor failure rate of distribution transformer, tTFor the time of the transformer power restoration, rfail(n) is a failure rate of the nth system load point with respect to the main power supply.
5. The method of claim 1, wherein the load point information includes whether the system load point has access to the energy storage device and a power outage capacity of the system load point, and wherein determining the load point power outage duration of the system load point based on the projected outage duration, the load point information of the system load point, and the capacity of the energy storage device comprises at least one of:
if the system load point can not be accessed to the energy storage equipment, determining the estimated outage duration as the power failure duration of the load point of the system load point;
if the system load point can be accessed to the energy storage equipment, and the capacity of the energy storage equipment is greater than or equal to the power failure missing electric quantity of the system load point, determining the power failure duration of the load point of the system load point based on the switching success rate of the energy storage equipment and the estimated outage duration;
and if the system load point can be accessed to the energy storage equipment, and the capacity of the energy storage equipment is smaller than the power failure missing electric quantity of the system load point, determining the power failure duration of the load point of the system load point based on the switching success rate of the energy storage equipment, the power failure duration of the energy storage equipment switching failure and the power failure duration of the energy storage equipment switching success.
6. The method of claim 5, further comprising:
calculating the power failure time length of the energy storage equipment which is successfully switched based on the following formula,
Figure FDA0003261178660000031
wherein, tsuc(n) the power failure duration r of successful energy storage equipment switching corresponding to the nth system load pointfail(n) is the failure rate of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply, rtransFor handover success rate, trepair(n) is the repair duration of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply, EBAnd (n) is the energy storage dischargeable quantity of the nth system load point, and P is the load point power.
7. The method of claim 1, wherein the reliability index comprises a system outage time expected value and a system reliability value, and wherein determining the reliability index for the target energy storage and distribution system based on the load point outage duration for each of the system load points comprises:
determining a system outage time expected value of the target energy storage and distribution system based on the outage duration of the load points of each system load point;
and determining a system reliability value of the target energy storage power distribution system based on the expected system outage time value.
8. An apparatus for determining reliability of an energy storage power distribution system, the apparatus comprising:
the system comprises a load point determining module, a load point determining module and a load point determining module, wherein the load point determining module is used for determining each system load point of a target energy storage power distribution system, and the target energy storage power distribution system comprises the system load points, a main power supply and energy storage equipment;
the outage duration determining module is used for determining the estimated outage duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply;
the power failure duration determining module is used for determining the power failure duration of the load point of the system load point based on the estimated outage duration, the load point information of the system load point and the capacity of the energy storage equipment;
and the reliability determining module is used for determining the reliability index of the target energy storage power distribution system based on the power failure time of the load point of each system load point.
9. An electronic device, characterized in that the electronic device comprises:
one or more processors;
a storage device for storing one or more programs,
when executed by the one or more processors, cause the one or more processors to implement the method of determining reliability of an energy storage and distribution system of any of claims 1-7.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, which program, when being executed by a processor, is adapted to carry out the method for reliability determination of an energy storage and distribution system according to any one of claims 1-7.
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