CN113723766B - Buffer-zone-based cement production line progress monitoring and early warning method - Google Patents

Buffer-zone-based cement production line progress monitoring and early warning method Download PDF

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CN113723766B
CN113723766B CN202110911162.0A CN202110911162A CN113723766B CN 113723766 B CN113723766 B CN 113723766B CN 202110911162 A CN202110911162 A CN 202110911162A CN 113723766 B CN113723766 B CN 113723766B
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请求不公布姓名
刘欢
罗翔
郑常伟
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Sinoma Suzhou Construction Co ltd
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    • G06Q10/0631—Resource planning, allocation, distributing or scheduling for enterprises or organisations
    • G06Q10/06311—Scheduling, planning or task assignment for a person or group
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    • G06Q10/06311—Scheduling, planning or task assignment for a person or group
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Abstract

The invention discloses a cement production line progress monitoring and early warning method based on a buffer zone, which comprises the following steps: firstly, acquiring a key chain operation in a project, secondly, calculating the size of a buffer area by utilizing the characteristics of the key operation, then obtaining a project risk index by the ratio of consumption of buffer quantity to demand at each moment, and finally, scheduling resources according to the size of the project risk index. The invention can reflect the job progress completion condition through the consumption of the buffer zone, set the project risk index, judge whether to schedule the job progress plan or not through observing the value of the risk index, provide scientific and reasonable scheduling basis for project manager, ensure the order of the construction process, avoid resource loss caused by frequent scheduling and disordered management of the construction period.

Description

Buffer-zone-based cement production line progress monitoring and early warning method
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of cement production, and particularly relates to a buffer zone-based cement production line progress monitoring and early warning method.
Background
The construction operation scheduling is the core of the construction of the cement production line, and a scientific scheduling method is adopted to effectively ensure the construction to be completed on schedule. In the project progress process, the job progress is often delayed to different degrees due to the influence of human factors or weather factors, and a project manager in the current stage mainly judges whether to schedule the progress plan according to construction experience and the number of delayed jobs, and in this case, the total project period progress is often influenced by the uncertainty of judgment, so that a scientific and intelligent judgment method is needed to monitor and early warn the progress, and the aim of timely completing the project is fulfilled.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention mainly solves the technical problems of providing a buffer-based cement production line progress monitoring and early warning method, which is characterized in that a project risk index is set according to the completion condition of the consumption reaction operation progress of a buffer, and whether the operation progress plan is required to be scheduled is judged by observing the value of the risk index, so that a scientific and reasonable scheduling basis is provided for project managers.
In order to solve the technical problems, the invention adopts a technical scheme that: a cement production line progress monitoring and early warning method based on a buffer zone comprises the following steps:
s1, acquiring a key job chain, and acquiring the actual starting time LS of each job in a project ij Earliest start time ES ij Predicted completion time LF ij Total time difference of operation TF ij Or the working gravity center G j Identifying project key job chains;
s2, calculating a buffer B, calculating the size of the buffer B by using an improved root variance method, setting a safety time delta t, and judging a weight coefficient alpha of a working position j And a work risk coefficient beta j ；
S3, calculating a risk index, and calculating the buffer consumption BC at the time t according to the parameters of the step S2 t And the buffer amount BN required for the remaining work t Obtaining an operation risk index P;
s4, monitoring dynamic buffering, and selecting to take no action, analyze a problem to find a solution or immediately enlarge resources to perform new scheduling according to different P values.
The invention adopts the further technical scheme for solving the technical problems that:
further, the specific method for acquiring the key job chain in step S1 is as follows:
total time difference of operation TF ij The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
TF ij ＝LS ij -ES ij
wherein TF is ij LS for j operations under i system ij For the actual start time of j jobs under the i system, ES ij The earliest start time of j jobs under the i system;
center of gravity G of work j The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
G j ＝ES ij +LF ij
wherein LF (ladle furnace) ij The predicted completion time for j jobs under the i-system.
Further, in step S2, the calculation formula for calculating the buffer B is as follows:
Figure SMS_1
wherein Δt is j Represents the safe time of job j, alpha j Position weight coefficient, beta, representing job j j Representing the risk factor for job j.
Further, the job position weight coefficient α j The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
Figure SMS_2
wherein alpha is j Position weight coefficient indicating job j, l j And L is the total duration of the key link, wherein the duration is the duration from the midpoint time to the project start time in the construction period of the job j.
Further, the job risk factor beta j The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
Figure SMS_3
wherein beta is j Representing the risk factor for job j,
Figure SMS_5
representing the period of time, dp, of job j at 50% completion probability j Representing the pessimistic construction period of job j.
Further, in step S3, the calculation formula of the job risk index P is as follows:
Figure SMS_6
where PB represents the on-Key-chain job buffer size, BC t As the buffer consumption at time t, BN t Buffering the remaining jobs;
the identification method of the operation risk index P comprises the following steps: when P is more than or equal to 1, indicating that under the current state, the buffer capacity of the rest operation in the project can meet the requirement of the rest operation on the buffer capacity, and the project is in a healthy state without mobilizing an operation plan; when P is less than 1, the buffer capacity of the rest operation in the project can not meet the requirement of the rest operation on the buffer capacity, and a buffer monitoring mechanism is triggered.
Further, the calculation formula of the job buffer size PB on the key chain is:
Figure SMS_7
wherein d j The planned construction period of the job j is indicated.
Further, at time t, the actual construction period R of j-job jt The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
Figure SMS_8
wherein the job j is in a construction state, P jt D is the completion ratio of the operation t time jt Is time consuming;
buffer consumption BC at time t t The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
Figure SMS_9
further, at time t, the buffer amount BN required for the remaining work t The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
Figure SMS_10
further, the mechanism of dynamic buffer monitoring in step S4 is as follows:
when P is more than or equal to 2/3 and less than 1, the project is indicated to have controllable delay, and the aim of counteracting the delay can be achieved by supervising constructors to improve the construction efficiency, so that action on a work plan is not needed; when P is more than or equal to 1/3 and less than 2/3, triggering a first risk point to indicate that a problem exists in the project at the moment, and finding out the problem and analyzing the problem to find out a solution; when P is less than 1/3, the second risk point is activated, the project is at a delay risk, the project manager must immediately increase the resource consumption, and the job period is shortened to schedule the job plan for a new round.
The invention has the beneficial effects that: the invention can reflect the job progress completion condition through the consumption of the buffer zone, set the project risk index, judge whether to schedule the job progress plan or not through observing the value of the risk index, provide scientific and reasonable scheduling basis for project manager, ensure the order of the construction process, avoid resource loss caused by frequent scheduling and disordered management of the construction period.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a monitoring and early warning method of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is an exemplary diagram of risk trigger points for dynamic buffer monitoring in accordance with the present invention.
Detailed Description
The preferred embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings so that the advantages and features of the present invention can be more easily understood by those skilled in the art, thereby making clear and defining the scope of the present invention.
Examples: a cement production line progress monitoring and early warning method based on a buffer zone is shown in fig. 1-2, and comprises the following steps:
s1, acquiring a key job chain, and acquiring the actual starting time LS of each job in a project ij Earliest start time ES ij Predicted completion time LF ij Total time difference of operation TF ij Or the working gravity center G j Identifying project key job chains;
s2, calculating a buffer B, calculating the size of the buffer B by using an improved root variance method, setting a safety time delta t, and judging a weight coefficient alpha of a working position j And a work risk coefficient beta j The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Correcting the size of the buffer area according to the parameters;
s3, calculating a risk index, and calculating the buffer consumption BC at the time t according to the parameters of the step S2 t And the buffer amount BN required for the remaining work t Obtaining an operation risk index P;
s4, monitoring dynamic buffering, and selecting to take no action, analyze a problem to find a solution or immediately enlarge resources to perform new scheduling according to different P values.
The specific method for acquiring the key operation chain in the step S1 is as follows:
total time difference of operation TF ij The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
TF ij ＝LS ij -ES ij
wherein TF is ij LS for j operations under i system ij For the actual start time of j jobs under the i system, ES ij The earliest start time of j jobs under the i system;
center of gravity G of work j The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
G j ＝ES ij +LF ij
wherein LF (ladle furnace) ij The predicted completion time for j jobs under the i-system.
If there is no parallel operation in the project, only the total time difference TF of the operation needs to be calculated ij The jobs with zero time difference are ordered according to the start time. If two or more parallel jobs are encountered at the same time, it is necessary to determine which job should be added to the key chain according to the comparison of the job center of gravity, and the key chain should be added when the job center of gravity is large.
The calculation formula for calculating the buffer B in step S2 is:
Figure SMS_11
wherein Δt is j Represents the safe time of job j, alpha j Position weight coefficient, beta, representing job j j Representing the risk factor for job j.
The size of the whole buffer area is calculated, the size of the buffer area is corrected by using the parameters, the buffer area calculated by the improved root variance method is more suitable for the actual condition of construction operation of a cement production line, the calculation result of the buffer area is more accurate, and the rationality of the buffer area is better than that of the traditional root variance method.
Setting operation safety time, wherein the operation safety time is independent of project construction period, the operation is completed within the safety time, delay is not calculated, and the safety time is recorded as: Δt.
Work position weight coefficient alpha j The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
Figure SMS_12
wherein alpha is j Position weight coefficient indicating job j, l j And L is the total duration of the key link, wherein the duration is the duration from the midpoint time to the project start time in the construction period of the job j.
Setting the job position weight coefficient, the more difficult the job is to control in general, the more the job is to the last item, the more the uncertainty of the previous job is affected. The distance of the project start time to the median of the work periods divided by the sum of the work periods on the critical links is a location weight coefficient.
Job risk coefficient beta j The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
Figure SMS_13
wherein beta is j Representing the risk factor for job j,
Figure SMS_15
representing the period of time, dp, of job j at 50% completion probability j Representing the pessimistic construction period of job j.
Setting a work risk coefficient, wherein the work risk coefficient refers to the risk expectation of a project manager when estimating the work period, and the greater the ratio of the work 50% finishing probability period to the work pessimistic period, the greater the work delay probability is.
In step S3, the calculation formula of the job risk index P is:
Figure SMS_16
wherein PB representsCritical on-link job buffer size, BC t As the buffer consumption at time t, BN t Buffering the remaining jobs;
dynamic monitoring of buffers determines whether an item is in a dangerous state by focusing on how much a critical chain can be met at a time.
The identification method of the operation risk index P comprises the following steps: when P is more than or equal to 1, indicating that under the current state, the buffer capacity of the rest operation in the project can meet the requirement of the rest operation on the buffer capacity, and the project is in a healthy state without mobilizing an operation plan; when P is less than 1, the buffer capacity of the rest operation in the project can not meet the requirement of the rest operation on the buffer capacity, and a buffer monitoring mechanism is triggered.
The calculation formula of the operation buffer area size PB on the key chain is as follows:
Figure SMS_17
wherein d j The planned construction period of the job j is indicated.
At time t, actual construction period R of j operation jt The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
Figure SMS_18
wherein the job j is in a construction state, P jt D is the completion ratio of the operation t time jt Is time consuming;
buffer consumption BC at time t t The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
Figure SMS_19
at time t, the buffer amount BN required for the remaining job t The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
Figure SMS_20
the mechanism of dynamic buffer monitoring in step S4 is:
when P is more than or equal to 2/3 and less than 1, the project is indicated to have controllable delay, and the aim of counteracting the delay can be achieved by supervising constructors to improve the construction efficiency, so that action on a work plan is not needed; when P is more than or equal to 1/3 and less than 2/3, triggering a first risk point to indicate that a problem exists in the project at the moment, and finding out the problem and analyzing the problem to find out a solution; when P is less than 1/3, the second risk point is activated, the project is at a delay risk, the project manager must immediately increase the resource consumption, and the job period is shortened to schedule the job plan for a new round.
The foregoing description is only illustrative of the present invention and is not intended to limit the scope of the invention, and all equivalent structural changes made by the present invention and the accompanying drawings, or direct or indirect application in other related technical fields, are included in the scope of the present invention.

Claims (2)

1. A cement production line progress monitoring and early warning method based on a buffer zone is characterized by comprising the following steps of: the method comprises the following steps:
s1, acquiring a key job chain, and acquiring the actual starting time LS of each job in a project ij Earliest start time ES ij Predicted completion time LF ij Total time difference of operation TF ij Or the working gravity center G j Identifying project key job chains;
s2, calculating a buffer area B, calculating the size of the buffer area by using an improved root variance method, setting a safe time Deltat, and judging a working position weight coefficient alpha j And a work risk coefficient beta j ；
S3, calculating a risk index, and calculating the buffer consumption BC at the time t according to the parameters of the step S2 t And the buffer amount BN required for the remaining work t Obtaining an operation risk index P;
s4, monitoring dynamic buffering, and selecting to take no action, analyze a problem to find a solution or immediately enlarge resources to perform new scheduling according to different P values;
the specific method for acquiring the key operation chain in the step S1 is as follows:
total time difference of operation TF ij The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
TF ij ＝LS ij -ES ij
wherein TF is ij LS for j operations under i system ij For the actual start time of j jobs under the i system, ES ij The earliest start time of j jobs under the i system;
center of gravity G of work j The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
G j ＝ES ij +LF ij
wherein LF (ladle furnace) ij The predicted completion time of j operations under the i system;
if there is no parallel operation in the project, only the total time difference TF of the operation needs to be calculated ij Sequencing the operation with zero time difference according to the starting time; if two or more parallel operations are met at the same moment, determining which operation is added into the key chain according to the comparison of the gravity centers of the operations, wherein the key chain should be added when the gravity center of the operation is large;
the calculation formula for calculating the buffer B in step S2 is:
Figure QLYQS_1
wherein Deltat j Represents the safe time of job j, alpha j Position weight coefficient, beta, representing job j j Representing a risk factor of the job j;
work position weight coefficient alpha j The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
Figure QLYQS_2
wherein alpha is j Position weight coefficient indicating job j, l j The time length from the midpoint time to the project start time in the construction period of the job j is the total time length of the key link;
job risk coefficient beta j The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
Figure QLYQS_3
wherein beta is j Representing the risk factor for job j,
Figure QLYQS_4
representing the period of time, dp, of job j at 50% completion probability j Representing the pessimistic construction period of the job j;
in step S3, the calculation formula of the job risk index P is:
Figure QLYQS_5
where PB represents the on-Key-chain job buffer size, BC t As the buffer consumption at time t, BN t Buffering the remaining jobs;
the identification method of the operation risk index P comprises the following steps: when P is more than or equal to 1, indicating that under the current state, the buffer capacity of the rest operation in the project can meet the requirement of the rest operation on the buffer capacity, and the project is in a healthy state without mobilizing an operation plan; when P is smaller than 1, indicating that the buffer capacity of the residual operation in the project cannot meet the requirement of the residual operation on the buffer capacity at the moment, and triggering a buffer monitoring mechanism;
the calculation formula of the operation buffer area size PB on the key chain is as follows:
Figure QLYQS_6
wherein d j Representing the planned construction period of the job j;
at time t, actual construction period R of j operation jt The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
Figure QLYQS_7
wherein the job j is in a construction state, P jt D is the completion ratio of the operation t time jt Is time consuming;
buffer consumption BC at time t t The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
Figure QLYQS_8
at time t, the buffer amount BN required for the remaining job t The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
Figure QLYQS_9
2. the buffer zone-based cement production line progress monitoring and early warning method of claim 1, wherein the method comprises the following steps: the mechanism of dynamic buffer monitoring in step S4 is:
when P is more than or equal to 2/3 and less than 1, the project is indicated to have controllable delay, and the aim of counteracting the delay can be achieved by supervising constructors to improve the construction efficiency, so that action on a work plan is not needed; when P is more than or equal to 1/3 and less than 2/3, triggering a first risk point to indicate that a problem exists in the project at the moment, and finding out the problem and analyzing the problem to find out a solution; when P is less than 1/3, the second risk point is activated, the project is at a delay risk, the project manager must immediately increase the resource consumption, and the job period is shortened to schedule the job plan for a new round.
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