CN113657739B - Quantitative energy storage evaluation method under multiple scenes - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a quantitative energy storage evaluation method under multiple scenes, which starts from four indexes of economic indexes, technical performance indexes, environmental impact indexes and indexes related to a power grid. Firstly, establishing an evaluation index of energy storage; secondly, the score is standardized by adopting a z-score standardization method; then, selecting weights by adopting a method of judging a matrix; and finally obtaining the energy storage score condition in the current scene. The invention aims to select a factor to be considered in a specific type of energy storage in a specific scene, and an energy storage system with better performance in the scene can be selected according to requirements through the evaluation method. The method selects the index of energy storage evaluation comprehensively, and evaluates the application of the energy storage system in a specific scene through a multi-dimensional and multi-target evaluation system.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of energy storage application evaluation, and particularly relates to a quantitative energy storage evaluation method under multiple scenes.
Background
With the large quantity of grid connection of new energy power generation modes such as wind power, photovoltaic and the like, the uncertainty of a power grid is increased. The energy storage system and the renewable energy source are matched to generate electricity, so that the output of wind power, photovoltaic and the like can be flexibly regulated and controlled, and the problems brought to a power grid by randomness, fluctuation and intermittence of the energy storage system are solved, so that the importance of the energy storage system in the power system is increasingly improved. However, various types of power energy storage have different performance in terms of indexes such as economy, technology, environmental impact and the like, and a plurality of factors need to be considered when selecting which type of energy storage in a specific scene are often a problem with strong subjectivity. Therefore, it is necessary to provide a method for quantitatively evaluating the suitability for energy storage.
There are studies on methods for evaluating the economy of energy storage technologies, and cost benefits are analyzed by energy storage benefit evaluation software, but no consideration is given to the performance of energy storage beyond economy. The comprehensive evaluation index system comprising economy, system reliability and load smoothness is established in research, and can be used for evaluation and comparison of various schemes. An evaluation index system of the light-storage combined power generation system is proposed. The prior art carries out evaluation on one or more aspects, and a more comprehensive evaluation system is not established. The comprehensive evaluation index system is studied and arranged, the weight is selected by adopting a method of judging a matrix, but the stored energy is scored according to the empirical value, so that the subjectivity is high, and the calculation and deduction of each index are lacked.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a quantitative energy storage evaluation method under multiple scenes aiming at the defects of the prior art.
The aim of the invention is realized by the following technical scheme: a quantitative energy storage evaluation method under multiple scenes comprises the following steps:
(1) And establishing an evaluation index of energy storage.
(2) The scores were normalized using the z-score normalization method.
(3) And selecting weights according to different scenes by adopting a method of judging a matrix.
(4) And obtaining the energy storage score condition in the current scene.
Further, the step (1) includes the steps of:
(a) The evaluation indexes are selected and divided into four categories, namely economic indexes, technical performance indexes, environment influence indexes and indexes related to a power grid. The economic indexes comprise daily cost of energy storage, real-time electric quantity benefit of energy storage and daily standby power benefit; technical performance indexes comprise energy storage life and cycle times; the environmental impact index comprises carbon dioxide emission amount per unit volume and land occupation area per unit volume; the indexes related to the power grid comprise delay power grid upgrading benefits, equivalent load standard deviation and reliability indexes.
(B) And acquiring evaluation index data. The energy storage service life, the carbon dioxide emission amount per unit capacity and the land occupation area per unit capacity are obtained through basic data provided by an energy storage manufacturer, and calculation is not needed. The remaining index is obtained by calculation.
Further, in the step (b), the index required to be obtained by calculation includes:
(1) Calculation of economic indicators
The daily cost calculation method for energy storage comprises the following steps:
Wherein: c p is the unit power cost of energy storage; c E is the unit capacity cost of energy storage; p r is the rated power of the stored energy; e r is the rated capacity of the stored energy; d is the energy storage life; r is the discount rate; c f is the daily operation and maintenance cost of the unit energy of the energy storage; ps is the output value of each time of energy storage, and according to the power supply convention, ps is positive when the energy storage is discharged and negative when the energy storage is charged; t is the total scheduling time number; Δt is the scheduling time interval.
The real-time electric quantity benefit of energy storage is that the energy storage is charged when the electricity price is low, and is discharged when the electricity price is high, and the acquired difference profit is calculated according to the following formula:
Wherein: c elc is the electricity price at each moment.
The standby power of the energy storage is the upper and lower adjustable margin when the energy storage power is between the maximum charge and discharge power and the minimum charge and discharge power, and the margin can be used as the standby power of the power grid, so that the obtained benefit is the standby power benefit of the energy storage. Wherein, the up-regulation means that the discharge amount of the stored energy is increased or the charge amount is reduced, and the down-regulation means that the discharge amount of the stored energy is increased or the charge amount is reduced. The daily reserve power return is calculated as:
wherein: a u is the up-regulation backup price, and A d is the down-regulation backup price.
(2) Technical Performance index calculation
The cycle number of the stored energy is related to the depth of discharge, and the higher the depth of charge and discharge is, the lower the cycle number of the battery is. The calculation formula of the battery cycle number obtained by fitting by adopting the 0.2C multiplying power is as follows:
N0.2c＝3946×(Dod)-1.58 (6)
wherein: dod is the depth of discharge (Depth of discharge) of the stored energy.
(3) Grid-related index calculation
The calculation formula of the equivalent load standard deviation is as follows:
Pnetload＝Pload-Pnew (8)
Wherein: p netload is the net load power of the system, P load is the load power, P new is the new energy output power value, and P av is the average value of the net load power.
The calculation formula of the delay power grid upgrade benefit is as follows:
Wherein: c trans is the unit replacement cost of the transformer; p max is the maximum value of the load power; τ is the annual rate of load increase; Δm is a deferrable power grid upgrading expansion period, and λ is a peak clipping rate of energy storage; and C line is the unit cost of line capacity expansion.
Further, in the step (2), the calculation formula of the z-score normalization is:
Wherein: x i is the original value of the ith index, y i is the value of the ith index after standardized treatment, n is the number of objects to be compared, the number of corresponding energy storage types to be compared is the standard deviation, and s is the standard deviation. The first expression of y i is a revenue-type index and the second expression is a cost-type index. After z-score normalization, 0 represents an average level, greater than 0 represents a higher than average level, less than 0 represents a lower than average level, and greater absolute values represent more higher or lower than average level.
Further, the step (3) specifically comprises:
the idea of judging the matrix is to compare the indexes pairwise. When n indexes exist, the corresponding judgment matrix is as follows:
After the judgment matrix is filled, only the characteristic value of the judgment matrix is calculated, the largest characteristic value is found, the corresponding characteristic vector is calculated, and the corresponding weight relation among n indexes can be obtained through unitization.
The consistency index CI defining the judgment matrix is as follows:
wherein: lambda max represents the maximum eigenvalue of the decision matrix, n being the number of indices compared. And when CI is more than or equal to 0 and less than or equal to 0.1, the judgment matrix is considered to pass the consistency check, otherwise, the judgment matrix is refilled.
Further, the step (4) specifically comprises:
And multiplying and summing the normalized value of the energy storage index and the index corresponding to the normalized value to obtain the final score of the energy storage. Comparing the final total score of all types of energy storage, wherein the higher the score is, the more suitable the score is for the current scene.
Further, the reliability index is that after the failure rate of the given equipment is calculated, the expected value of the shortage of the system electric quantity in one day is calculated by adopting Monte Carlo simulation.
Further, the new energy output power value P new includes a photovoltaic output value, a fan output value, and the like.
The beneficial effects of the invention are as follows:
(1) The invention aims at selecting a factor to be considered in a specific type of energy storage in a specific scene, and an energy storage system with better performance in the scene can be selected according to the requirement by the evaluation method;
(2) The method selects the index of energy storage evaluation comprehensively, and evaluates the application of the energy storage system in a specific scene through a multi-dimensional and multi-target evaluation system.
Detailed Description
The invention relates to a quantitative energy storage evaluation method under multiple scenes, which adopts an analytic hierarchy process to divide evaluation indexes into economic indexes, technical performance indexes, environmental impact indexes and indexes related to a power grid, wherein each large class is divided into a plurality of indexes, and a calculation method of each index is provided. In order to avoid excessive subjectivity, a method of judging a matrix is adopted to determine the weight relation between different indexes. In order to avoid subjectivity in scoring, a method of corresponding fixed scores by fixed values is not adopted, grade division is not carried out by adopting membership functions, the calculated original data is directly adopted for standardization, the difference of values and dimensions among various indexes is eliminated, and then the total score is calculated according to the calculated weight. Under different scenes, new scoring conditions can be obtained by only filling in the judgment matrix again and changing the weight relation among different indexes. The invention can obtain the energy storage type most suitable for the current requirement under different scenes.
The invention adopts an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to evaluate the energy storage performance. The indexes to be evaluated are determined first, and the acquired values are subjected to normalization processing because of the difference between the values of the different indexes. And then, calculating proper weights through a judgment matrix according to the requirements in the current scene, and finally, calculating the final total score of different types of energy storage through the standardized index values and the weights, and selecting the energy storage type which is most suitable for the current scene according to the score. The method specifically comprises the following steps:
(1) And establishing an evaluation index of energy storage. The following are provided:
(a) The evaluation indexes are selected and divided into four categories, namely economic indexes, technical performance indexes, environment influence indexes and indexes related to a power grid. The economic index is divided into daily cost of energy storage, real-time electric quantity benefit of energy storage and daily standby power benefit; the technical performance index is divided into energy storage life and cycle times; the environmental impact index is divided into carbon dioxide emission amount per unit volume and land occupation area per unit volume; the index related to the power grid is divided into index of deferring the upgrade benefit of the power grid, equivalent load standard deviation and reliability.
(B) And acquiring evaluation index data. The energy storage life, the carbon dioxide emission amount per unit capacity and the land occupation area per unit capacity in the indexes can be obtained through basic data provided by an energy storage manufacturer, and calculation is not needed. The other indexes can be obtained through a certain calculation. The method of calculating the remaining index will be described below.
(1) Calculation of economic indicators
(1.1) The calculation method of the daily cost C day of energy storage is as follows:
Wherein: c p is the unit power cost of energy storage; c E is the unit capacity cost of energy storage; p r is the rated power of the stored energy; e r is the rated capacity of the stored energy; d is the energy storage life; r is the discount rate; c f is the daily operation and maintenance cost of the unit energy of the energy storage; ps is the output value of each time of energy storage, and according to the power supply convention, ps is positive when the energy storage is discharged and negative when the energy storage is charged; t is the total scheduling time number; Δt is the scheduling time interval.
(1.2) The real-time electric quantity benefit A elc of energy storage is that the energy storage can be charged at low electricity price and discharged at high electricity price, so that the differential profit can be obtained from the energy storage, and the calculation formula is as follows:
Wherein: c elc is the electricity price at each moment.
And (1.3) the reserve power of the energy storage is the upper and lower adjustable margin when the energy storage power is between the maximum charge and discharge power and the minimum charge and discharge power, and the reserve power can be used as the reserve power of the power grid, so that the obtained benefit is the reserve power benefit of the energy storage. Wherein, the up-regulation means that the discharge amount of the stored energy is increased or the charge amount is reduced, and the down-regulation means that the discharge amount of the stored energy is increased or the charge amount is reduced. The calculation formulas of the up and down adjustment standby power are as follows:
Pu＝Pr-Ps (3)
Pd＝Pr+Ps (4)
Wherein: p u and P d are up-regulated and down-regulated reserve power, respectively.
In engineering, it is determined that the up-down adjustment standby time should be calculated according to some specific indexes, and for convenience, the up-down adjustment time is considered to be half of the up-down adjustment time, and then the calculation formula of the daily standby power benefit A res is as follows:
wherein: a u is the up-regulation backup price, and A d is the down-regulation backup price.
(2) Technical Performance index calculation
The energy storage life may be obtained directly from the manufacturer supplied data. The cycle times of the stored energy are related to the discharge depth, and the higher the charge-discharge depth is, the lower the cycle times of the battery are. If the 0.2C multiplying power is adopted, the calculation formula of the battery cycle number N 0.2c obtained by fitting is as follows:
N0.2c＝3946×(Dod)-1.58 (6)
wherein: dod is the depth of discharge (Depth of discharge) of the stored energy.
(3) Grid-related index calculation
One big effect of energy storage on the power grid is peak clipping and valley filling, so that the peak clipping and valley filling effects are necessary when considering the index of energy storage related to the power grid. The invention adopts the equivalent load standard deviation F to measure the energy storage peak clipping and valley filling effects. The calculation formula is as follows:
Pnetload＝Pload-Pnew (8)
Wherein: p netload is the net load power of the system; p load is the load power; new The new energy output power value can comprise a photovoltaic output value, a fan output value and the like; p av is the average of the payload power.
In addition, the energy storage system can delay the upgrade of certain equipment or circuits in the power grid and prolong the service life of the equipment or circuits, so that the energy storage has the benefit A post of delaying the upgrade of the power grid and can also be used as an index related to the power grid. The calculation formula is as follows:
wherein: c trans is the unit replacement cost (Yuan/KW) of the transformer; p max is the maximum value of the load power; τ is the annual rate of load increase (%/a); Δm is a deferrable power grid upgrade expansion period, where λ is a peak clipping rate (%) of stored energy; c line is the unit cost (Yuan/KW) of line expansion.
The energy storage can also improve the reliability of the power grid. The indexes for measuring the reliability of the power grid comprise the probability time probability (Loss of Load Probability, LOLP) of the power shortage of the system, expected value (Expected Energy not Supplied, EENS) of the power shortage of the system, power cut-off index (Bulk Power Energy Curtailment Index, BPECI) of the system, average power supply availability index (AVERAGE SERVICE Availability Index, ASAI) of the system and the like. The scholars also put forward the concept of "valve level" and the concept of equipment importance to measure reliability, and also characterize reliability with reduced outage losses by sequential monte carlo methods, or measure reliability by point estimation methods. In theory, these indexes can be used as evaluation indexes for improving the reliability of the system by energy storage, and the invention mainly provides a method for processing and comparing the numerical values of a plurality of indexes, so that for the sake of simplicity, after the failure rate of given equipment is given, a Monte Carlo simulation is adopted to calculate the expected value of insufficient system electric quantity in one day as the reliability index for measuring the system.
(2) The scores were normalized using the z-score normalization method. The method comprises the following steps:
The invention selects a z-score standardization method, also called standard deviation standardization. The method is characterized in that the data mean value after the standardization treatment is 0, the standard deviation is 1, and even if two nearer values are subjected to the z-score standardization treatment, the two values can be different, so that the method is suitable for comparison. The calculation formula for the z-score normalization is:
Wherein: x i is the original value of the ith index, y i is the value of the ith index after standardized treatment, n is the number of objects to be compared, the number corresponds to the number of energy storage types to be compared in the invention, and s is the standard deviation. The first expression of y i is a revenue-type index and the second expression is a cost-type index. The profit type index refers to an index with a larger value and a better value, and the cost type index refers to an index with a smaller value and a better value. Among the above-mentioned indexes, the real-time electric quantity income, the standby power income, the energy storage life, the cycle number and the delay of the power grid upgrading benefit belong to the income type indexes, and the daily cost of energy storage, the carbon dioxide emission amount of unit capacity, the land occupation area of unit capacity, the equivalent load standard deviation and the expected value of insufficient system electric quantity belong to the cost type indexes. After z-score normalization, 0 represents an average level, greater than 0 represents a higher than average level, less than 0 represents a lower than average level, and greater absolute values represent more higher or lower than average level.
(3) And selecting weights according to different scenes by adopting a method of judging a matrix. The method comprises the following steps:
The requirements in different scenes are different, and the difference is reflected in the selection of weights. The relevant personnel select proper weights according to the requirements in the current scene, but the selection of the weights is sometimes too subjective. In order to avoid such subjectivity, the invention adopts a method of judging a matrix to carry out weight selection. The idea of judging the matrix is to compare the indexes in pairs, in other words, one only needs to compare which index is important, and does not need to consider which index is the most important.
Assuming that three indexes exist, the corresponding judgment matrix is:
Wherein, the meaning represented by element A ij is shown in Table 1:
table 1: judging the meaning of matrix element
| Matrix element A ij | Meaning of representation |
| 9 | Index i is extremely important than index j |
| 7 | Index i is much more important than index j |
| 5 | Index i is more important than index j |
| 3 | Index i is slightly more important than index j |
| 1 | Index i is as important as index j |
| 1/3 | Index i is slightly less than index j |
| 1/5 | Index i is less than index j |
| 1/7 | Index i is much less than index j |
| 1/9 | Index i is extremely less important than index j |
| 2,4,6,8 And reciprocal thereof | Between the two adjacent determinations |
After the judgment matrix is filled, only the characteristic value of the judgment matrix is calculated, the largest characteristic value is found, the corresponding characteristic vector is calculated, and the corresponding weight relation among the three indexes can be obtained through unitization.
From the definition of the judgment matrix elements described above, it is apparent that, in theory, the judgment matrix will be a matrix whose main diagonal is 1 and whose two elements symmetric about the diagonal are reciprocal to each other. However, when the number of indexes is large, people tend to forget the previous judgment, so that the judgment matrix is not in the standard form. The method for calculating the weight by the judgment matrix can be used for carrying out compromise when people judge the weights before and after the judgment is inconsistent, and based on the principle, the subjectivity can be reduced by the method for obtaining the weight by the judgment matrix, so that the weight selection is more objective and reasonable. However, it should be noted that sometimes the difference between the front and rear judgment is too large, and even the importance between the two indexes is opposite when the front and rear judgment is performed, this time indicates that there is a problem in the judgment process, so that it is necessary to perform consistency check on the filled judgment matrix.
The consistency index CI defining the judgment matrix is as follows
Wherein: lambda max represents the maximum eigenvalue of the decision matrix, n being the number of indices compared. And when CI is more than or equal to 0 and less than or equal to 0.1, the judgment matrix is considered to pass the consistency check, otherwise, the judgment matrix is refilled.
(4) And obtaining the energy storage score condition in the current scene.
After the index normalization and the weight calculation are completed, the final score of the energy storage can be obtained by multiplying and summing the value normalized by one energy storage index and the corresponding index. The score is proportional to the scene fitness, and the final total score of all types of stored energy is compared, wherein the higher the score is, the more suitable the current scene is.
Claims (6)
1. The quantitative energy storage evaluation method under multiple scenes is characterized by comprising the following steps:
(1) Establishing an evaluation index of energy storage;
(a) The evaluation indexes are selected, wherein the selected indexes are divided into four major categories, namely economic indexes, technical performance indexes, environment influence indexes and indexes related to a power grid; the economic indexes comprise daily cost of energy storage, real-time electric quantity benefit of energy storage and daily standby power benefit; technical performance indexes comprise energy storage life and cycle times; the environmental impact index comprises carbon dioxide emission amount per unit volume and land occupation area per unit volume; the indexes related to the power grid comprise indexes for delaying the upgrading benefit, equivalent load standard deviation and reliability of the power grid;
(b) Acquiring evaluation index data; the energy storage service life, the carbon dioxide emission amount per unit capacity and the land occupation area per unit capacity are obtained through basic data provided by an energy storage manufacturer, and calculation is not needed; the other indexes are needed to be obtained through calculation;
The indexes required to be obtained through calculation include:
Calculating an economic index:
The daily cost calculation method for energy storage comprises the following steps:
Wherein: c p is the unit power cost of energy storage; c E is the unit capacity cost of energy storage; p r is the rated power of the stored energy; e r is the rated capacity of the stored energy; d is the energy storage life; r is the discount rate; c f is the daily operation and maintenance cost of the unit energy of the energy storage; p s is the output value of each time of energy storage, and according to the power supply convention, ps is positive when the energy storage is discharged and negative when the energy storage is charged; t is the total scheduling time number; Δt is the scheduling time interval;
The real-time electric quantity benefit of energy storage is that the energy storage is charged when the electricity price is low, and is discharged when the electricity price is high, and the acquired difference profit is calculated according to the following formula:
Wherein: c elc is the electricity price at each moment;
The standby power of the energy storage is the upper and lower adjustable allowance when the energy storage power is between the maximum charge and discharge power and the minimum charge and discharge power, and the allowance can be used as the standby power of the power grid, so that the obtained benefit is the standby power benefit of the energy storage; wherein, the up-regulation means that the discharge amount of the stored energy is increased or the charge amount is reduced, and the down-regulation means that the discharge amount of the stored energy is increased or the charge amount is reduced; the daily reserve power return is calculated as:
Wherein: a u is the up-regulation backup price, and A d is the down-regulation backup price;
calculating technical performance indexes:
the cycle times of the stored energy are related to the discharge depth, and the higher the charge and discharge depth is, the lower the cycle times of the battery are; the calculation formula of the battery cycle number obtained by fitting by adopting the 0.2C multiplying power is as follows:
N0.2c＝3946×(Dod)-1.58 (6)
Wherein: dod is the depth of discharge (Depth of discharge) of the stored energy;
Calculating an index related to a power grid:
the calculation formula of the equivalent load standard deviation is as follows:
Pnetoad＝Pload-Pnew (8)
Wherein: p netload is the net load power of the system, P load is the load power, P new is the new energy output power value, and P av is the average value of the net load power;
The calculation formula of the delay power grid upgrade benefit is as follows:
wherein: c trans is the unit replacement cost of the transformer; p max is the maximum value of the load power; τ is the annual rate of load increase; Δm is a deferrable power grid upgrading expansion period, and λ is a peak clipping rate of energy storage; c line is unit cost of line capacity expansion;
(2) The score is normalized by a z-score normalization method;
(3) Selecting weights according to different scenes by adopting a method of judging matrixes;
(4) And obtaining the energy storage score condition in the current scene.
2. The method for quantitative energy storage evaluation in multiple scenarios according to claim 1, wherein in step (2), the calculation formula of the z-score normalization is:
Wherein: x i is the original value of the ith index, y i is the value of the ith index after standardized treatment, n is the number of objects to be compared, the number of corresponding energy storage types to be compared is the standard deviation; the first expression of y i is a revenue type index, and the second expression is a cost type index; after z-score normalization, 0 represents an average level, greater than 0 represents a higher than average level, less than 0 represents a lower than average level, and greater absolute values represent more higher or lower than average level.
3. The method for quantitative energy storage evaluation under multiple scenes according to claim 1, wherein the step (3) is specifically:
The idea of judging the matrix is to compare the indexes pairwise; when n indexes exist, the corresponding judgment matrix is as follows:
After the judgment matrix is filled, only the characteristic value of the judgment matrix is calculated, the largest characteristic value is found, the corresponding characteristic vector is calculated, and the corresponding weight relation among n indexes can be obtained by unitization;
The consistency index CI defining the judgment matrix is as follows:
Wherein: lambda max represents the maximum eigenvalue of the judgment matrix, and n is the number of compared indexes; and when CI is more than or equal to 0 and less than or equal to 0.1, the judgment matrix is considered to pass the consistency check, otherwise, the judgment matrix is refilled.
4. The method for quantitative energy storage evaluation under multiple scenes according to claim 1, wherein the step (4) is specifically:
Multiplying and summing the normalized value of one energy storage index and the corresponding index to obtain the final energy storage score; comparing the final total score of all types of energy storage, wherein the higher the score is, the more suitable the score is for the current scene.
5. The method for quantitative energy storage evaluation under multiple scenes according to claim 1, wherein the reliability index is a expected value of system electric quantity deficiency in one day calculated by Monte Carlo simulation after the failure rate of given equipment.
6. The method for quantitative energy storage evaluation under multiple scenes according to claim 1, wherein the new energy output power value P new comprises a photovoltaic output value and a fan output value.
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