CN113642794A - Mountain torrent forecasting method combining rainfall and soil water observation - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a torrential flood forecasting method combining rainfall and soil water observation. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring hydrological data and soil property parameters of the watershed according to geological data and hydrological conditions of the watershed; judging whether the soil is layered or not according to the soil property parameters, and determining the soil layer distribution condition of the soil in the drainage basin; establishing sensitivity between rainfall and runoff and soil water content of each soil layer; dividing rainfall fields of a drainage basin by utilizing a random time-varying rainfall runoff model to obtain hydrological characteristics of each rainfall field; constructing a two-dimensional torrent prediction model of the drainage basin and a relation between the initial soil water content and the peak time; and determining the predicted runoff in the runoff domain, comparing the predicted runoff with the warning runoff, and judging whether the predicted runoff belongs to the mountain torrents or not to realize the prediction of the mountain torrents. The invention comprehensively considers the conditions of rainfall and soil water content, and is closer to the real rainfall runoff generating process; the method provides scientific theoretical basis for the prediction of the torrential flood in the data drainage basin, and has positive guiding significance for the warning of the torrential flood.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a mountain torrent forecasting method in the field of flood forecasting of small watersheds in mountainous areas, in particular to a mountain torrent forecasting method combining rainfall and soil water observation.
Background
The existing mountain torrent early warning modes are mostly embodied as single-element monitoring early warning, and then a more accurate prediction result is obtained by capturing the natural features of the elements, such as mountain torrent prediction considering rainfall spatial heterogeneity, real-time correction of soil moisture on disaster dynamics, net rain runoff under different soil humidity levels and the like. The prediction methods depend on real-time data feedback of monitoring equipment to a certain extent, the cause of mountain torrent disasters is complex, the disaster mechanism is not clear, the objective environment of a mountain area is also complex, the working conditions of extreme rainfall events easily cause important data missing and data missing, and great challenges are brought to mountain torrent prediction work.
In the hydrological study of the drainage area, the most basic information is rainfall and runoff, and for rainfall events with the characteristics of burst, easiness in occurrence and multiple occurrence, such as mountain floods, the continuous rainfall in the early stage can influence the distribution of the water content of the soil body, so that disasters such as mountain floods, landslides, debris flows and the like are brought by the rainfall events which cannot cause the mountain floods originally. Therefore, when the mountain torrent prediction research is carried out, the observation and combination of rainfall and soil moisture can more reasonably reflect the generation process of the mountain torrent so as to effectively predict the mountain torrent.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the technical problems, the invention overcomes the defects in the prior art and provides a mountain torrent forecasting method combining rainfall and soil water observation. According to the method, hydrological basic observation data are selected, the soil water content and rainfall are considered at the same time based on the composition of the mountain torrents, prediction unbalance caused by overlarge occupation ratio of traditional single element variables is eliminated, prediction is expanded from one dimension to two dimensions, and a more real and reliable mountain torrent prediction value can be provided. The method is based on field investigation and data analysis, and the process of torrential flood in the flow area under different rainfall and soil water content conditions is obtained by constructing long time sequence and field rainfall characteristic comprehensive analysis.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows:
the invention comprises the following steps:
1) acquiring hydrological data and soil property parameters of the watershed according to geological data and hydrological conditions of the watershed;
2) judging whether the soil is layered or not according to the soil property parameters of the drainage basin, and determining the soil layer distribution condition of the soil in the drainage basin;
3) according to hydrological data of the drainage basin, establishing sensitivity among rainfall, runoff and soil water content of each soil layer;
4) dividing rainfall fields of a drainage basin by utilizing a random time-varying rainfall runoff model according to the monitored hydrological data, soil layer distribution conditions of soil and sensitivity among rainfall, runoff and soil water content of each soil layer to obtain hydrological characteristics of each rainfall field;
5) according to the hydrological characteristics of each rainfall field, constructing a two-dimensional torrential flood prediction model combining rainfall and soil water content observation of each soil layer of the drainage basin, and simultaneously establishing a relation between the initial soil water content of the drainage basin and the peak time;
6) according to a two-dimensional torrent prediction model of the watershed and the relation between the initial soil water content and the peak time, determining the predicted runoff in the watershed, comparing the predicted runoff in the watershed with the warning runoff, judging whether the predicted runoff in the watershed belongs to torrent or not, and realizing torrent prediction of the watershed.
The step 1) is specifically as follows:
the geological data are soil layer and vegetation distribution conditions, and the hydrological conditions are historical disaster conditions, historical rainfall, runoff and soil water content;
1.1) determining a flood area range and a range in which secondary disasters are possible according to historical disaster conditions of a drainage basin, and then determining a mountain torrent dangerous area in the flood area range and an unstable slope unit in the range in which the secondary disasters are possible to occur as the historical disaster range of the drainage basin;
1.2) according to the historical disaster range of the drainage basin and the soil layer and vegetation distribution condition of the drainage basin, selecting a position to arrange a monitoring instrument, monitoring the drainage basin by using the monitoring instrument, wherein the monitoring content comprises rainfall, runoff and soil water content of the drainage basin, and acquiring monitoring hydrological data of the drainage basin; meanwhile, collecting soil samples of each measuring point in the drainage basin, wherein the soil samples of each measuring point meet the horizontal and longitudinal collecting conditions of different vegetation coverage and different depths and are used for obtaining soil property parameters of the drainage basin;
1.3) obtaining historical hydrological data of the drainage basin according to historical rainfall, runoff and soil water content of the drainage basin; hydrological data of a basin are mainly formed by monitoring hydrological data and historical hydrological data.
The step 3) is specifically as follows:
according to hydrological data of the drainage basin, the rainfall and the runoff of the drainage basin and the annual and annual changes of the water content of the soil are established, the cross-correlation coefficient between the water content of the soil of each soil layer at each measuring point in the drainage basin is calculated, and the established annual and annual changes and the calculated cross-correlation coefficient are used as the sensitivity between the rainfall and the runoff and the water content of each soil layer.
The step 5) is specifically as follows:
the hydrological characteristics in the step 4) comprise a soil moisture change value, an initial soil moisture content, total rainfall, total runoff, a runoff peak value and peak current time.
According to the hydrological characteristics of each rainfall field, establishing a relation between the soil moisture change value of each measuring point of the drainage basin and the total rainfall and recording the relation as a rainfall-soil moisture content response relation, establishing a relation between the soil moisture change value of each measuring point of the drainage basin and the total rainfall and the total runoff and recording the relation as a rainfall-runoff-soil moisture content response relation, and constructing and obtaining a two-dimensional mountain torrent prediction model of the drainage basin according to the rainfall-soil moisture content response relation and the rainfall-runoff-soil moisture content response relation of each measuring point;
and establishing a relation between the initial soil water content of each measuring point of the drainage basin and the peak time according to the initial soil water content, the runoff peak value and the peak time of the hydrological characteristics, and obtaining the relation between the initial soil water content of the drainage basin and the peak time.
Comparing the predicted runoff with the alert runoff in the flow domain in the step 6), and judging whether the predicted runoff in the flow domain belongs to the torrential flood, wherein the steps are as follows:
comparing the predicted runoff in the runoff domain with the warning runoff, and if the predicted runoff is greater than the warning runoff, belonging to the torrential flood; otherwise, the flood is not the mountain torrents.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
1. the data characteristic value used in the invention is completely based on the measured data, and can reflect the current flow area production convergence condition.
2. The features used in the present invention are simple and easy to understand, and the adaptability of the method is improved.
3. The invention comprehensively considers the conditions of rainfall and soil water content, and is closer to the real rainfall runoff generating process.
4. The mountain torrent forecasting method combining rainfall and soil water observation provided by the invention provides a scientific theoretical basis for forecasting the mountain torrents in the data drainage basin, and has positive guiding significance for early warning of the mountain torrents.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of mountain torrent forecasting according to the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram showing the influence of soil water content on runoff in different rainfall scenarios.
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of a total rainfall-soil water content response relationship and a schematic diagram of a rainfall-runoff-soil water content response relationship under different rainfall fields at two measuring points.
FIG. 4 is a graphical representation of the relationship between initial soil moisture content and peak time for two stations.
Detailed Description
The following detailed description of embodiments of the invention refers to the accompanying drawings.
A typical small watershed of a certain province is selected as a research object, and a mountain torrent forecasting method combining rainfall and soil water observation is analyzed. Through being applied to this basin with two-dimensional torrential flood prediction model, can confirm the basin condition of converging under different rainfall intensity and different soil water content conditions, provide scientific basis for the torrential flood early warning.
1) Acquiring hydrological data and soil property parameters of the watershed according to geological data and hydrological conditions of the watershed;
the step 1) is specifically as follows:
the geological data are soil layer and vegetation distribution conditions, and the hydrological conditions are historical disaster conditions, historical rainfall, runoff and soil water content;
1.1) determining a flood area range and a range in which secondary disasters are possible according to historical disaster conditions of a drainage basin, wherein the range in which the secondary disasters are possible is specifically as follows: the extent to which secondary disasters, such as landslides, have occurred; determining a mountain torrent dangerous area in the flood area range and an unstable slope unit in the range in which secondary disasters are possible to occur, and taking the unstable slope unit as the historical disaster range of the basin;
1.2) according to the historical disaster range of the drainage basin and the soil layer and vegetation distribution condition of the drainage basin, selecting a position to arrange a monitoring instrument, monitoring the drainage basin by using the monitoring instrument, wherein the monitoring content comprises rainfall, runoff and soil water content of the drainage basin, and acquiring monitoring hydrological data of the drainage basin; meanwhile, under the condition that the conditions allow, collecting soil samples of all measuring points in the drainage basin as much as possible, wherein the soil samples of all measuring points meet the horizontal and longitudinal collecting conditions of different vegetation coverage and different depths and are used for obtaining soil property parameters of the drainage basin, and the soil property parameters comprise the soil saturation hydraulic conductivity, the porosity, the particle size distribution and the soil type;
1.3) obtaining historical hydrological data of the drainage basin according to historical rainfall, runoff and soil water content of the drainage basin; hydrological data of a basin are mainly formed by monitoring hydrological data and historical hydrological data.
In the detailed description
1.1 basin overview
The area of the drainage basin is 3.5km2The altitude is 1050-. The coverage rate of forest in the drainage basin is high, the forest and shrub mainly exist, the average longitudinal gradient is 36.3%, the main ditch is 1.7km in total, and the trend of northeast-southwest is formed. The climate is subtropical humid climate, and the precipitation is mainly concentrated in 5-9 months, which accounts for more than 80% of the annual precipitation.
The watershed is penetrated by a fracture zone, the geological complexity is obvious, the fracture structure is developed, the exposed stratum is basically a shock denier system (Za) lime green andesite, tuff, anden basalt and a fourth system stratum, the overall structure is loose and infirm, the content of soil body broken stones is high, and water seepage is easy; the earthquake disturbs the river basin rocks and soil, the vegetation is damaged in a large area, a large amount of loose materials are accumulated around the main river channel, and the slope erosion is aggravated. The phenomenon of soil stratification caused by landslide is obvious in the flow field, and the soil interface is clear.
The river basin inner mountain flood is mostly generated at night, the water rising speed is high, the water falling stage is slowed down to a certain degree, and according to the earlier research, the river basin runoff generating mode mainly comprises full runoff storage and shallow groundwater confluence.
1.2 historical disaster situations
Taking a debris flow disaster as an example, in 23 months 7 in 2008, a period of time after an earthquake outbreak occurs, the debris flow in the drainage basin outbreak. Due to the concentrated rainfall, 3 times of large-scale debris flow erupts in the watershed totally within 17 days in 2009, 13 days in 2010, 8 days in 2010 and 17 days in 2010, so that a large number of houses are destroyed, and huge loss is caused. In 13 days 8 and 2010, the river basin encounters strong rainfall, the rainfall rises suddenly after 14:00, the debris flow explodes about 16:00, the rainfall is maximum in the period of 16:00-17:00, the rainfall intensity reaches 75mm/h, the debris flow lasts to 17:30, then the debris flow is converted into high sand-containing water flow, and the duration time of the debris flow is about 90 min. The occurrence of debris flow disasters in the drainage basin almost originates from nearby branches, when debris flow impacts a gully, soil can be directly washed down, serious road silting is caused, and then the debris flow can be discharged to the downstream of the drainage basin to generate huge deposits. In 2018, strong rainfall begins at 15:56 pm in about 24 pm in 6 days, the water rising process for the first time is less than 45min, the water level at the outlet is rapidly raised to the middle of the water passing culvert, the water passing culvert is submerged to the road surface at night, vegetation and main roads are washed down, the outlet terrain is changed, stones with large particle sizes are taken away, and the risk of slope landslide is increased. The rainfall is 233.5mm in total, and is mainly concentrated from 24 nights in 6 months to 25 early morning in 6 months, and the maximum rainfall intensity is 2.7 x 10- 5m/s, history 42.7 h.
1.3 actual measurement data acquisition
A flow monitor is installed at the outlet of the flow field, and a rain gauge is installed at a downstream position about 2km away from the outlet thereof. The method is characterized in that the ground point (GND) and the slope point (HS) are selected for observing the soil water content layer by comprehensively considering the terrain and vegetation conditions, the information of the two points is shown in the table 1, and in addition, the soil sample is acquired in a distributed mode to test the soil property.
TABLE 1 basic information of soil moisture content monitoring points
2) Judging whether the soil is layered or not according to the soil property parameters of the drainage basin, and determining the soil layer distribution condition of the soil in the drainage basin; the judging mode is specifically as follows: for example, the saturated water conductivity, the porosity or the soil type are mutated, the soil is layered, but the soil space heterogeneity is considered, and the layer-by-layer and random sampling analysis is needed.
3) According to hydrological data of the drainage basin, establishing sensitivity among rainfall, runoff and soil water content of each soil layer;
the step 3) is specifically as follows:
according to hydrological data of the drainage basin, the rainfall and the runoff of the drainage basin and the annual and annual changes of the water content of the soil are established, the cross-correlation coefficient between the water content of the soil of each soil layer at each measuring point in the drainage basin is calculated, and the established annual and annual changes and the calculated cross-correlation coefficient are used as the sensitivity between the rainfall and the runoff and the water content of each soil layer.
4) Dividing rainfall fields of a drainage basin by using a random time-variable raining runoff model (stochastic time-variable rainfalls-runeffling modeling) of Lyne V and Hollick M. (1979) according to monitored hydrological data, soil layer distribution conditions of soil and sensitivity between rainfall, runoff and soil water content of each soil layer, and obtaining hydrological characteristics of each rainfall field as shown in figure 2;
due to the fact that rainfall in the early period has different soil wetting degrees, the runoff outlet has larger difference under the condition that the total rainfall is not much, as shown in fig. 2, (a1) and (b1) of fig. 2 are rainfall runoff processes of two rainfall fields; FIGS. 2 (a2) and (b2) are soil moisture contents of 0-50cm at two rainfall field slope points; FIGS. 2 (a3) and (b3) are soil moisture contents of 60-100cm at two rainfall field slope points; FIGS. 2 (a4) and (b4) are soil moisture contents of 0-50cm at two rainfall field ground points; FIGS. 2 (a5) and (b5) are soil moisture contents of 60-100cm at two rainfall field ground points. The total rainfall for the two rainfall events was 98 and 110mm, respectively.
5) According to the hydrological characteristics of each rainfall field, constructing a two-dimensional torrential flood prediction model combining rainfall and soil water content observation of each soil layer of the drainage basin, and simultaneously establishing a relation between the initial soil water content of the drainage basin and the peak time;
the step 5) is specifically as follows:
the hydrological characteristics in the step 4) include a soil moisture change value (Δ SM, which means a difference between a maximum value and a minimum value of soil moisture content of rainfall in a field,%), an initial soil moisture content (SM)0The water content of the soil at the beginning of a rainfall session,%), total rainfall (TP, mm), total runoff (TQ, mm), and runoff peak (Q)peak，m3S) and time to peak (T)peak，hr)。
According to the hydrological characteristics of each rainfall field, establishing a relation between the soil moisture change value of each measuring point of the drainage basin and the total rainfall and recording the relation as a rainfall-soil moisture content response relation, wherein in the current drainage basin, the total rainfall also increases along with the increase of the soil moisture change value, establishing a relation between the soil moisture change value of each measuring point of the drainage basin and the total rainfall and the total runoff and recording the relation as the rainfall-runoff-soil moisture content response relation, in the current drainage basin, the total runoff hardly changes along with the increase of the soil moisture change value before the total rainfall reaches a rainfall threshold value, and the total runoff increases along with the increase of the rainfall total rainfall and soil moisture change value after the total rainfall is greater than the rainfall threshold value; constructing and obtaining a two-dimensional torrent prediction model of the drainage basin according to the rainfall-soil water content response relation and the rainfall-runoff-soil water content response relation of each measuring point; as shown in fig. 3, (a) and (b) of fig. 3 are response relations of total rainfall-soil water content under different rainfall fields at two measuring points; FIGS. 3 (c) and (d) are rainfall-runoff-soil water content response relationships of two measuring points in different rainfall fields, and the size of a circle represents the total rainfall size of the corresponding field; where the soil moisture content changes in figure 3 are the sum of the soil moisture content changes for each soil layer in the station.
Establishing a relation between the initial soil water content of each measuring point of the drainage basin and the peak time according to the initial soil water content, the runoff peak value and the peak time of the hydrological characteristics, wherein the peak time is advanced along with the increase of the initial soil water content in the current drainage basin, and the initial soil water content has an obvious negative correlation with the peak time to obtain the relation between the initial soil water content of the drainage basin and the peak time, as shown in fig. 4, (a) and (b) of fig. 4 are the relations between the initial soil water content of two measuring points and the peak time, wherein the initial soil water content is the sum of the initial soil water contents of all soil layers of the measuring points.
In a rainfall field, the soil moisture change value has strong positive correlation with total rainfall, but the total rainfall is larger, and the soil moisture content is larger, so that more runoff can not be generated. Further analysis of the relationship between the initial moisture content and the peak appearance time revealed that the higher the initial moisture content, the earlier the peak appearance time.
6) Determining predicted runoff in the drainage basin according to a two-dimensional torrential flood prediction model of the drainage basin and a relation between the initial soil water content and the peak time, comparing the predicted runoff in the drainage basin with warning runoff, judging whether the predicted runoff in the drainage basin belongs to the torrential flood or not, and if the predicted runoff is greater than the warning runoff, determining that the predicted runoff belongs to the torrential flood; otherwise, the method does not belong to the torrential flood, and the torrential flood prediction of the drainage basin is realized.
In an embodiment, according to fig. 3 and 4, after rainfall, the current soil moisture content range (earlier soil moisture content) is looked at first, and the corresponding peak present time can be found according to linear fitting between the initial soil moisture content and the peak present time; continuously calculating the soil moisture change value and the total rainfall of the current time node, calculating the predicted total rainfall and soil moisture change value according to the rainfall-soil moisture content response relation, comparing the predicted total rainfall and soil moisture change value with the measured value, and calculating an error; calculating and predicting runoff according to a rainfall-runoff-soil water content response relation; and continuously calculating the soil moisture change value and the total rainfall before the rainfall is finished, and continuously updating the current forecast runoff according to the steps to provide mountain torrents early warning. And after the rainfall is finished, adding the hydrological characteristics of the actual rainfall into the rainfall-soil water content response relation and the rainfall-runoff-soil water content response relation, updating the two-dimensional mountain torrent prediction model, and carrying out error analysis on the predicted runoff.
The method provides the final prediction result of the torrential flood based on the driving factors (initial soil water content, soil water change value and total rainfall). The technical scheme of the invention depends on the collection and the arrangement of the effective data in the early stage to a certain extent, has pertinence, but is simple and easy to operate, has strong transportability, makes up the biased estimation of single-element mountain torrent prediction, and can predict the rainfall under different initial water contents.
Claims (5)
1. A torrential flood forecasting method combining rainfall and soil water observation is characterized by comprising the following steps:
1) acquiring hydrological data and soil property parameters of the watershed according to geological data and hydrological conditions of the watershed;
2) judging whether the soil is layered or not according to the soil property parameters of the drainage basin, and determining the soil layer distribution condition of the soil in the drainage basin;
3) according to hydrological data of the drainage basin, establishing sensitivity among rainfall, runoff and soil water content of each soil layer;
4) dividing rainfall fields of a drainage basin by utilizing a random time-varying rainfall runoff model according to the monitored hydrological data, soil layer distribution conditions of soil and sensitivity among rainfall, runoff and soil water content of each soil layer to obtain hydrological characteristics of each rainfall field;
5) according to the hydrological characteristics of each rainfall field, constructing a two-dimensional torrential flood prediction model combining rainfall and soil water content observation of each soil layer of the drainage basin, and simultaneously establishing a relation between the initial soil water content of the drainage basin and the peak time;
6) according to a two-dimensional torrent prediction model of the watershed and the relation between the initial soil water content and the peak time, determining the predicted runoff in the watershed, comparing the predicted runoff in the watershed with the warning runoff, judging whether the predicted runoff in the watershed belongs to torrent or not, and realizing torrent prediction of the watershed.
2. The method for forecasting the torrential flood in combination with rainfall and soil water observation according to claim 1, wherein the step 1) is specifically as follows:
the geological data are soil layer and vegetation distribution conditions, and the hydrological conditions are historical disaster conditions, historical rainfall, runoff and soil water content;
1.1) determining a flood area range and a range in which secondary disasters are possible according to historical disaster conditions of a drainage basin, and then determining a mountain torrent dangerous area in the flood area range and an unstable slope unit in the range in which the secondary disasters are possible to occur as the historical disaster range of the drainage basin;
1.2) according to the historical disaster range of the drainage basin and the soil layer and vegetation distribution condition of the drainage basin, selecting a position to arrange a monitoring instrument, monitoring the drainage basin by using the monitoring instrument, wherein the monitoring content comprises rainfall, runoff and soil water content of the drainage basin, and acquiring monitoring hydrological data of the drainage basin; meanwhile, collecting soil samples of each measuring point in the drainage basin, wherein the soil samples of each measuring point meet the horizontal and longitudinal collecting conditions of different vegetation coverage and different depths and are used for obtaining soil property parameters of the drainage basin;
1.3) obtaining historical hydrological data of the drainage basin according to historical rainfall, runoff and soil water content of the drainage basin; hydrological data of a basin are mainly formed by monitoring hydrological data and historical hydrological data.
3. The method for forecasting the torrential flood in combination with rainfall and soil water observation according to claim 1, wherein the step 3) is specifically as follows:
according to hydrological data of the drainage basin, the rainfall and the runoff of the drainage basin and the annual and annual changes of the water content of the soil are established, the cross-correlation coefficient between the water content of the soil of each soil layer at each measuring point in the drainage basin is calculated, and the established annual and annual changes and the calculated cross-correlation coefficient are used as the sensitivity between the rainfall and the runoff and the water content of each soil layer.
4. The method for forecasting the torrential flood in combination with rainfall and soil water observation according to claim 1, wherein the step 5) is specifically as follows:
the hydrological characteristics in the step 4) comprise a soil moisture change value, an initial soil moisture content, total rainfall, total runoff, a runoff peak value and peak current time.
According to the hydrological characteristics of each rainfall field, establishing a relation between the soil moisture change value of each measuring point of the drainage basin and the total rainfall and recording the relation as a rainfall-soil moisture content response relation, establishing a relation between the soil moisture change value of each measuring point of the drainage basin and the total rainfall and the total runoff and recording the relation as a rainfall-runoff-soil moisture content response relation, and constructing and obtaining a two-dimensional mountain torrent prediction model of the drainage basin according to the rainfall-soil moisture content response relation and the rainfall-runoff-soil moisture content response relation of each measuring point;
and establishing a relation between the initial soil water content of each measuring point of the drainage basin and the peak time according to the initial soil water content, the runoff peak value and the peak time of the hydrological characteristics, and obtaining the relation between the initial soil water content of the drainage basin and the peak time.
5. The method for forecasting the torrential flood combined with rainfall and soil water observation according to claim 1, wherein the step 6) is to compare the predicted runoff and the warning runoff in the runoff domain to judge whether the predicted runoff in the runoff domain belongs to the torrential flood, and specifically comprises the following steps:
comparing the predicted runoff in the runoff domain with the warning runoff, and if the predicted runoff is greater than the warning runoff, belonging to the torrential flood; otherwise, the flood is not the mountain torrents.
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| JP7366304B1 (en) | 2022-05-10 | 2023-10-20 | 中国長江電力股▲ふん▼有限公司 | Adaptive division method for the number of rainfall runoff within a period |
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