CN113569201B - Geomagnetic Ap index forecasting method and device and electronic equipment - Google Patents

Geomagnetic Ap index forecasting method and device and electronic equipment Download PDF

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CN113569201B
CN113569201B CN202110897755.6A CN202110897755A CN113569201B CN 113569201 B CN113569201 B CN 113569201B CN 202110897755 A CN202110897755 A CN 202110897755A CN 113569201 B CN113569201 B CN 113569201B
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王月
王世金
张威泰
马新
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Digital Space Beijing Technology Co ltd
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Abstract

The application relates to a geomagnetic Ap index forecasting method, a geomagnetic Ap index forecasting device and electronic equipment. The method and the device can realize quantitative prediction of the geomagnetic Ap index, the prediction result is more accurate, accurate and reasonable, and the method and the device can be widely applied to geomagnetic Ap index prediction.

Description

Geomagnetic Ap index forecasting method and device and electronic equipment
Technical Field
The application belongs to the technical field of geomagnetic Ap index forecasting, and particularly relates to a geomagnetic Ap index forecasting method and device and electronic equipment.
Background
The geomagnetic Ap index is an important index of geomagnetic activity level, and is also a main input parameter of various important scientific and engineering modes. In recent years, as the influence of space weather on the fields of satellite orbit, communication, navigation and the like is increasingly prominent, the prediction of important indexes of the space weather is also emphasized. The geomagnetic Ap index is an index parameter obtained by converting the variation amplitude of the geomagnetic field H component obtained after removing the geomagnetic field background fluctuation, and is calculated according to the measurement results of 8 medium and high latitude geomagnetic stations. The geomagnetic Ap index reflects a daily geomagnetic activity index which is an average value of Ap indexes every hour in a day, and the Ap indexes refer to fluctuation conditions and are closely related to a short-term geomagnetic substorm process, so that the magnitude of the Ap index is determined by polar region energy injection and is closely related to solar wind and an interplanetary magnetic field.
In spatial weather service forecast, short-term forecast of the geomagnetic Ap index is an important work content. In the related technology, geomagnetic Ap index is mainly predicted according to time series trend, and the prediction mode has more qualitative prediction components and fails to achieve the goal of quantitative prediction, so that the accuracy of the prediction result is low and the precision is low.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to overcome the problems of low accuracy and low precision of a prediction result caused by more components in a mode of carrying out qualitative prediction on the geomagnetic Ap index by using a time series trend in the related technology and failing to achieve the goal of quantitative prediction at least to a certain extent, the application provides a geomagnetic Ap index prediction method, a device and electronic equipment.
In a first aspect, the present application provides a geomagnetic Ap index forecasting method, including:
collecting relevant data of geomagnetic Ap index forecast;
calculating corresponding related data indexes according to the geomagnetic Ap index forecast related data;
and inputting the related data index into an Ap index calculation model to obtain a predicted value of the geomagnetic Ap index.
Further, the geomagnetic Ap index forecast related data comprises solar wind speed, solar wind plasma temperature and interplanetary total magnetic field data.
Further, the Ap index calculation model includes:
Figure GDA0003245161960000021
wherein, ImIs the interplanetary magnetic field index; i isvIs the solar wind velocity index; i istIs the plasma temperature index.
Further, the calculating a corresponding correlation data index according to the geomagnetic Ap index forecast correlation data includes:
calculating an interplanetary magnetic field index I according to the interplanetary total magnetic field datam，
Im＝2.287×(lg(Bt)-0.328)
Wherein, BtIs the average of the total field in the interplanetary on that day.
Further, the calculating a corresponding correlation data index according to the geomagnetic Ap index forecast correlation data includes:
calculating a solar wind speed index I according to the solar wind speed datav，
Iv＝0.112×lg(V-451)
If V is less than or equal to 451, then IvWhere V is the solar wind speed in km/s.
Further, the calculating a corresponding correlation data index according to the geomagnetic Ap index forecast correlation data includes:
calculating a plasma temperature index I from the plasma temperature datat；
It＝4.464×10-6×(T+1.022×105)
Wherein T is the solar wind plasma temperature.
Further, the method also comprises the following steps:
and carrying out standardization processing on the geomagnetic Ap index prediction related data to obtain an average value of the geomagnetic Ap index prediction related data corresponding to the current day.
In a second aspect, the present application provides a geomagnetic Ap index forecasting apparatus, including:
the collecting module is used for collecting data related to geomagnetic Ap index forecast;
the calculation module is used for calculating corresponding related data indexes according to the geomagnetic Ap index forecast related data;
and the forecasting module is used for inputting the related data index into an Ap index calculation model to obtain a forecast value of the geomagnetic Ap index.
In a third aspect, the present application provides an electronic device, comprising:
a processor and a memory, the processor being configured to execute a computer program stored in the memory to implement the geomagnetic Ap index prediction method according to any one of the first aspects.
The technical scheme provided by the embodiment of the application can have the following beneficial effects:
the geomagnetic Ap index forecasting method comprises the steps of collecting relevant data for forecasting the geomagnetic Ap index, calculating corresponding relevant data indexes according to the relevant data for forecasting the geomagnetic Ap index, inputting the relevant data indexes into an Ap index calculation model to obtain forecasting values of the geomagnetic Ap index, achieving quantitative forecasting of the geomagnetic Ap index, enabling forecasting results to be more accurate, accurate and reasonable, and being capable of being widely applied to forecasting the geomagnetic Ap index.
It is to be understood that both the foregoing general description and the following detailed description are exemplary and explanatory only and are not restrictive of the application.
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The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and constitute a part of this specification, illustrate embodiments consistent with the present application and together with the description, serve to explain the principles of the application.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a geomagnetic Ap index prediction method according to an embodiment of the present application.
Fig. 2 is a flowchart of a geomagnetic Ap index prediction method according to another embodiment of the present application.
Fig. 3 is a diagram illustrating an experimental result of calculating a geomagnetic Ap index based on interplanetary parameters according to an embodiment of the present application.
Fig. 4 is a functional block diagram of a geomagnetic Ap index prediction apparatus according to an embodiment of the present application.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present application more apparent, the technical solutions of the present application will be described in detail below. It is to be understood that the embodiments described are only a few embodiments of the present application and not all embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the examples given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present application.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a geomagnetic Ap index prediction method according to an embodiment of the present application, and as shown in fig. 1, the geomagnetic Ap index prediction method includes:
s11: collecting relevant data of geomagnetic Ap index forecast;
s12: calculating corresponding related data indexes according to the geomagnetic Ap index forecast related data;
s13: and inputting the related data index into an Ap index calculation model to obtain a predicted value of the geomagnetic Ap index.
The traditional geomagnetic Ap index prediction method mainly takes time series trend prediction as a main component, and the qualitative prediction mode has more components and does not reach the target of quantitative prediction, so that the accuracy of a prediction result is low and the precision is low.
In this embodiment, the geomagnetic Ap index prediction method includes collecting geomagnetic Ap index prediction related data, calculating a corresponding related data index according to the geomagnetic Ap index prediction related data, and inputting the related data index into an Ap index calculation model to obtain a predicted value of the geomagnetic Ap index, so as to realize quantitative prediction of the geomagnetic Ap index, and the prediction result is more accurate, precise and reasonable, and can be widely applied to geomagnetic Ap index prediction.
An embodiment of the present invention provides another geomagnetic Ap index prediction method, as shown in a flowchart in fig. 2, where the geomagnetic Ap index prediction method includes:
s21: collecting geomagnetism Ap index forecast related data such as solar wind speed, solar wind plasma temperature, interplanetary total magnetic field data and the like;
in some embodiments, physical parameters such as solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field can be measured by using the STEREO-A satellite located at the upstream of the solar wind 4 days in advance, and the result is well consistent with the relevant parameters of the earth position.
In some embodiments, further comprising:
and carrying out standardization processing on the geomagnetic Ap index prediction related data to obtain an average value of the geomagnetic Ap index prediction related data corresponding to the current day.
Because the acquisition frequencies of the data related to the geomagnetic Ap index prediction are different, substituting the data into the same calculation model for Ap index calculation may cause inaccurate calculation results, before calculating the corresponding index, the data related to the geomagnetic Ap index prediction are standardized, for example, the solar wind speed acquired every hour is summed and then divided by the total sampling points to obtain the average value of the solar wind speed of the day.
S22: calculating an interplanetary magnetic field index I from interplanetary total magnetic field datam，
Im＝2.287×(lg(Bt)-0.328)
Wherein, BtIs the average of the total field in the interplanetary on that day.
S23: calculating the solar wind speed index I according to the solar wind speed datav，
Iv＝0.112×lg(V-451)
If V is less than or equal to 451, then IvWhere V is the solar wind speed in km/s.
S24: calculating a plasma temperature index I from the plasma temperature datat；
It＝4.464×10-6×(T+1.022×105)
Wherein T is the solar wind plasma temperature.
S25: and inputting the related data index into an Ap index calculation model to obtain a predicted value of the geomagnetic Ap index.
The Ap index is calculated as
Figure GDA0003245161960000051
Wherein, ImIs the interplanetary magnetic field index; i isvIs the solar wind velocity index; i istIs the plasma temperature index.
The above calculation steps and calculation formulas are exemplified as follows:
the calculation process and the result of the geomagnetic Ap index of the current day based on the solar wind and the interplanetary magnetic field parameters actually measured by the satellite positioned at the interplanetary in 2017, 10, month 5-8 are selected, and are shown in table 1.
TABLE 1 results of each step of geomagnetic Ap index calculation from interplanetary measured solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field
Figure GDA0003245161960000061
As can be seen, the error between the predicted value and the measured value obtained by the geomagnetic Ap index prediction method provided in this embodiment is small, as shown in fig. 3, the calculated result (horizontal axis) and the measured Ap index (vertical axis) have an obvious positive correlation characteristic, and the correlation coefficient obtained in the figure reaches 0.5135, which means that the geomagnetic Ap index prediction method provided in this embodiment is more accurate and reasonable.
In this embodiment, statistical correlation analysis is performed on the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters of a point near the earth and the simultaneous geomagnetic Ap index, so as to obtain a statistical relationship between the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters and the geomagnetic Ap index, and establish a geomagnetic Ap index calculation model. After the forecast values of the solar wind related data and the interplanetary magnetic field related data are obtained, the forecast values of the geomagnetic Ap indexes can be calculated by substituting the geomagnetic Ap index model, and the forecast results are more accurate and reasonable.
An embodiment of the present invention provides a geomagnetic Ap index prediction apparatus, as shown in a functional structure diagram of fig. 4, where the geomagnetic Ap index prediction apparatus includes:
a collecting module 41, configured to collect data related to geomagnetic Ap index prediction;
a calculating module 42, configured to calculate a corresponding correlation data index according to the geomagnetic Ap index prediction correlation data;
and the forecasting module 43 is configured to input the related data index into the Ap index calculation model to obtain a forecast value of the geomagnetic Ap index.
In some embodiments, further comprising:
the normalization processing module 44 is configured to perform normalization processing on the geomagnetic Ap index prediction related data, and obtain an average value of the geomagnetic Ap index prediction related data corresponding to the current day.
In this embodiment, the collecting module is configured to collect data related to geomagnetic Ap index prediction; the computing module is used for computing corresponding related data indexes according to the geomagnetic Ap index forecast related data; and the prediction module is used for inputting the related data index into the Ap index calculation model to obtain a prediction value of the geomagnetic Ap index, so that quantitative prediction of the geomagnetic Ap index is realized, the prediction result is more accurate, accurate and reasonable, and the prediction module can be widely applied to geomagnetic Ap index prediction.
An embodiment of the present invention provides an electronic device, including:
a processor and a memory, the processor being configured to execute a computer program stored in the memory to implement the geomagnetic Ap index prediction method according to the above-described embodiment.
It is understood that the same or similar parts in the above embodiments may be mutually referred to, and the same or similar parts in other embodiments may be referred to for the content which is not described in detail in some embodiments.
It should be noted that, in the description of the present application, the terms "first", "second", etc. are used for descriptive purposes only and are not to be construed as indicating or implying relative importance. Further, in the description of the present application, the meaning of "a plurality" means at least two unless otherwise specified.
Any process or method descriptions in flow charts or otherwise described herein may be understood as representing modules, segments, or portions of code which include one or more executable instructions for implementing specific logical functions or steps of the process, and the scope of the preferred embodiments of the present application includes other implementations in which functions may be executed out of order from that shown or discussed, including substantially concurrently or in reverse order, depending on the functionality involved, as would be understood by those reasonably skilled in the art of the present application.
It should be understood that portions of the present application may be implemented in hardware, software, firmware, or a combination thereof. In the above embodiments, the various steps or methods may be implemented in software or firmware stored in memory and executed by a suitable instruction execution system. For example, if implemented in hardware, as in another embodiment, any one or combination of the following techniques, which are known in the art, may be used: a discrete logic circuit having a logic gate circuit for implementing a logic function on a data signal, an application specific integrated circuit having an appropriate combinational logic gate circuit, a Programmable Gate Array (PGA), a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA), or the like.
It will be understood by those skilled in the art that all or part of the steps carried by the method for implementing the above embodiments may be implemented by hardware related to instructions of a program, which may be stored in a computer readable storage medium, and when the program is executed, the program includes one or a combination of the steps of the method embodiments.
In addition, functional units in the embodiments of the present application may be integrated into one processing module, or each unit may exist alone physically, or two or more units are integrated into one module. The integrated module can be realized in a hardware mode, and can also be realized in a software functional module mode. The integrated module, if implemented in the form of a software functional module and sold or used as a stand-alone product, may also be stored in a computer readable storage medium.
The storage medium mentioned above may be a read-only memory, a magnetic or optical disk, etc.
In the description herein, reference to the description of the term "one embodiment," "some embodiments," "an example," "a specific example," or "some examples," etc., means that a particular feature, structure, material, or characteristic described in connection with the embodiment or example is included in at least one embodiment or example of the application. In this specification, the schematic representations of the terms used above do not necessarily refer to the same embodiment or example. Furthermore, the particular features, structures, materials, or characteristics described may be combined in any suitable manner in any one or more embodiments or examples.
Although embodiments of the present application have been shown and described above, it is understood that the above embodiments are exemplary and should not be construed as limiting the present application, and that variations, modifications, substitutions and alterations may be made to the above embodiments by those of ordinary skill in the art within the scope of the present application.
It should be noted that the present invention is not limited to the above-mentioned preferred embodiments, and those skilled in the art can obtain other products in various forms without departing from the spirit of the present invention, but any changes in shape or structure can be made within the scope of the present invention with the same or similar technical solutions as those of the present invention.

Claims (7)

1. A geomagnetic Ap index forecasting method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
collecting relevant data of geomagnetic Ap index forecast;
calculating corresponding related data indexes according to the geomagnetic Ap index forecast related data;
inputting the related data index into an Ap index calculation model to obtain a prediction value of the geomagnetic Ap index;
the geomagnetic Ap index forecast related data comprise solar wind speed, solar wind plasma temperature and interplanetary total magnetic field data;
the Ap index calculation model comprises:
Figure FDA0003528103000000011
wherein, ImIs the interplanetary magnetic field index; i isvIs the solar wind velocity index; i istIs the plasma temperature index.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the calculating a corresponding correlation data index according to the geomagnetic Ap index prediction correlation data comprises:
calculating an interplanetary magnetic field index I according to the interplanetary total magnetic field datam，
Im＝2.287×(lg(Bt)-0.328)
Wherein, BtIs the average of the total field in the interplanetary on that day.
3. The method according to claim 1, wherein the calculating a corresponding correlation data index according to the geomagnetic Ap index prediction correlation data comprises:
calculating a solar wind speed index I according to the solar wind speed datav，
Iv＝0.112×lg(V-451)
If V is less than or equal to 451, then IvWhere V is the solar wind speed in km/s.
4. The method according to claim 1, wherein the calculating a corresponding correlation data index according to the geomagnetic Ap index prediction correlation data comprises:
calculating a plasma temperature index I from the plasma temperature datat；
It＝4.464×10-6×(T+1.022×105)
Wherein T is the solar wind plasma temperature.
5. The geomagnetic Ap index forecasting method according to claim 1, further comprising:
and carrying out standardization processing on the geomagnetic Ap index prediction related data to obtain an average value of the geomagnetic Ap index prediction related data corresponding to the current day.
6. An apparatus for predicting an Ap index based on geomagnetism, comprising:
the collecting module is used for collecting data related to geomagnetic Ap index forecast;
the calculation module is used for calculating corresponding related data indexes according to the geomagnetic Ap index forecast related data;
the forecasting module is used for inputting the related data index into an Ap index calculation model to obtain a forecasting value of the geomagnetic Ap index;
the geomagnetic Ap index forecast related data comprise solar wind speed, solar wind plasma temperature and interplanetary total magnetic field data;
the Ap index calculation model comprises:
Figure FDA0003528103000000021
wherein, ImIs the interplanetary magnetic field index; i isvIs the solar wind velocity index; i istIs the plasma temperature index.
7. An electronic device, comprising:
a processor and a memory, the processor being configured to execute a computer program stored in the memory to implement the geomagnetic Ap index prediction method according to any one of claims 1 to 5.
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